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GLOBAL SOCIETY
Liu Pengqi
MA of School of International & Public Affairs, Jilin University
liuaa77@163.com Li Menglong
Ph.D., lecturer at School of International & Public Affairs, Jilin University
limenglong@jlu.edu.cn
THE HISTORICAL OPPORTUNITY AND IMPACT OF CHINA-RUSSIA TO STRENGTHEN ENERGY COOPERATION
Abstract: With the introduction of the latest version of the US National Security Strategy, great power competition has once again officially become the core issue of world politics, and has gradually extended from the traditional security field to the non-traditional security field. In the contemporary world, traditional and non-traditional security issues are intertwined, increasing the difficulty of global security governance. Energy is an indispensable material foundation for human society, and how to ensure energy security is an important part of global governance and international cooperation, which is related to the national security and economic development of actors. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the Western society led by the United States imposed energy sanctions on Russia, which seriously undermined the security and stability of the existing global energy supply chain, and the long-term global energy cooperation system also faced many challenges. In the context of Russia's pivot to the East, China should seize the historical opportunity to strengthen cooperation with Russia in energy and other fields. This is not only in the national interests of China and Russia, but also in the interests of the whole world, especially developing countries. Strengthening energy cooperation can not only promote the diversification of China's energy imports, ensure the security of energy supply, help Russia effectively mitigate the losses caused by Western sanctions, and maintain energy power, but also meet the energy security needs of developing countries, avoid the risk of fragmentation of the global energy supply chain, and maintain the security and stability of effective global energy supply.
Key words: Russia-Ukraine Conflict, energy cooperation, Global Energy Governance, energy security, China-Russia cooperation
Introduction
The contemporary world is undergoing unprecedented changes in a century, traditional security and non-traditional security issues are intertwined, and global security governance is undergoing multiple challenges. In the field of traditional security, the return of great power competition has promoted the turbulence of the regional situation and the emergence of military conflicts, and the strategic competition between the United States and China and Russia has become increasingly fierce. And great power competition has gradually extended to non-traditional security fields. At present, the Biden administration of the United States is trying to maintain its global hegemonic rule by reshaping the alliance system and leading allies to implement strategic isolation and blockade of countries such as China and Russia in order to maintain its hegemonic rule in the world, which seriously threatens world peace and stability.
Energy is the inseparable material foundation of human society, which is related to the national security and economic development of all countries. How to ensure the security of energy supply is a problem that countries around the world are thinking about. At present, the competition for energy power among major countries are becoming increasingly fierce, and the security and stability of the global energy supply chain is seriously threatened. In particular, the US and European sanctions on Russian energy exports pose a serious threat to the security of supply for developing countries. Under this circumstance, China and Russia actively strengthen energy
cooperation, which not only conforms to the interests and needs of the two countries, but also plays the role of major countries in the construction of the global energy governance system, which has a positive impact on maintaining the stability and security of the global energy supply chain.
I. The background of cooperation: Russia's energy strategy pivot to the east
Pivoting to the East is an important diplomatic idea for Russia. After President Putin returned to power, he proposed Russia's strategy of pivoting to the East, that is, to cope with the strategic squeeze of the United States and the West by strengthening high-level political, economic and security cooperation with countries in the Asia-Pacific region, and to accelerate the development of the Far East to promote the improvement of Russia's economic and social development level. After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in 2014, Russia suffered isolation and economic sanctions from Western societies. In this context, Russia actively promotes the implementation of the strategy of pivoting to the East, hoping to improve the external environment for the country's development by improving relations with the countries of the East. However, NATO countries led by the United States have always squeezed Russia's strategic space, completely ignored Russia's security needs, and constantly promoted NATO's eastward expansion, which eventually led to the re-outbreak of conflict. The escalating Ukraine crisis marks the continuous advancement of great power competition and confrontation, which "is not only a continuation of the Cold War of East-West confrontation, but also a prelude to a major change unprecedented in a century, and an important variable that triggers the world pattern to change from gradual to sudden change at a certain historical point".
As an important part of non-traditional security cooperation, energy cooperation has always been the lubricant of Russian-European relations. However, with the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia has once again been recognized by European countries as a threat to European security, and Russian-European relations, which have just eased due to energy cooperation, have broken down again. In this context, the United States has led Western societies to impose sanctions on Russian energy exports, imposing a comprehensive embargo and price restrictions on Russian energy. The short-term goal of Western countries is to create economic chaos and undermine Russia's economic security and stability; The medium-term goal is to blockade Russia's strategic sectors, weaken Russia's financial and, in turn, its military capabilities; The long-term goal is to delay and disrupt the process of modernization of Russia by completely encircling and blockading it. Since then, the non-traditional security cooperation between Russia and the West, represented by energy cooperation, has gradually been interrupted. The rupture of the Russian-European energy cooperative relationship will aggravate the fracture and restructuring of the international energy supply chain and will have a serious impact on the existing international energy pattern. The sanctions and counter-sanctions between the West and Russia in the energy field are essentially the projection of power competition between countries in the energy field, that is, the continuous weakening of opponents through the competition for energy power.
Against the backdrop of intensified competition among major powers, Russian energy exports have been jointly sanctioned by the United States and the West. Although Russia does not want to interrupt energy cooperation with European countries, it has not been able to prevent the introduction of US and Western energy sanctions policies. With the entry into force of external sanctions, Russia's energy export market in Europe has gradually shrunk, and energy technology cooperation and investment with the West have been rapidly interrupted, and Russia's energy power has suffered a serious impact. The United States plays an important role in interrupting the Russian-European energy partnership, aiming to curb Russian energy exports through sanctions, thereby seizing the European energy market share and increasing its energy power while consuming Russia's foreign influence. In the face of Western containment, Russia actively promotes the energy strategy pivotto the East and strengthens cooperation with Eastern countries in the field of energy. "Pivoting to the east" is no longer just an option, but a necessity. If done well, it will elevate Russia's position in future world affairs. While Russia's exports to traditional markets such as the
United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea fell by nearly 2.2 million barrels per day, exports to China, India, Turkey and other countries, as well as seasonal domestic demand, significantly compensated for the shortfall, the data showed. It is clear that strengthening energy cooperation with Eastern countries will help Russia use the energy partnership to break through the strategic isolation of the United States and the West, improve the geopolitical environment, effectively stabilize Russia's energy revenues, mitigate the negative impact of Western sanctions, and maintain its central position in the global energy supply chain.
II.Energy security: China is diversifying its energy imports
Energy is the material foundation on which human society depends. It is both a resource and a commodity, and has multiple attributes such as global commodity attributes, asset value attributes, and cross-border transaction attributes, and can have an important impact on international actors in the fields of security, diplomacy, economic development, and people's lives. Energy itself does not have political attributes, but energy has the characteristics of scarcity, non-renewableness, unbalanced geographical distribution and high dependence on economic development, making energy gradually become the object of contention by all parties. In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy, people's living standards have also been continuously improved, and their dependence on energy has become more and more intense. The global "energy shortage" in 2021 has made the international community more and more deeply aware of the bottom-line role of energy security in economic and social development and national security.
Energy security initially mainly refers to supply security, focusing on the stability of energy supply and energy transaction prices, that is, energy consuming countries can obtain sufficient and reliable energy supply at reasonable prices. Some scholars believe that China's energy security mainly includes availability, oil price fluctuations, international Four aspects of energy transportation line safety and environmental safety. However, with the development of the times and the advancement of science and technology, the connotation of energy security has been further expanded. The connotation of energy security The connotation of energy security has gradually evolved from focusing on single energy supply security to focusing on five dimensions: energy supply security, energy use security, energy technology security, energy economic security and energy governance security. In recent years, Chinese academic circles have increasingly enriched their research on energy security. The dimension of energy research has expanded from the past "energy security" to the dual focus on "energy security" and "environmental protection", and today's triple focus on "energy security", "environmental protection" and "climate change". The multiple attributes and importance of energy make it gradually become the object of competition among major powers, that is, through the possession, control, distribution and management of energy. and gain the ability to influence and control other actors. In the face of changes unseen in a century, energy is related to the development of the country's economic and social development, and energy power has become the key to structural power. factors and key areas of great power competition, and even gradually rose to become the main structural power to some extent. How to maintain energy security and obtain energy power has become an important issue for energy major countries to think about.
Today's world is in a century of unprecedented changes, China's energy situation is becoming more and more complex, energy security has become a major strategy related to national economic development and national defense security. For a long time, the problems facing China's energy security mainly include resource security with a high degree of dependence on oil and gas for a long time, energy transportation security with high concentration of transportation channels, price security lacking international pricing power, ecological security faced by the high-carbon energy structure under the background of the world's largest total carbon emissions and insufficient environmental carrying capacity, and the energy technology security of advanced energy technology "stuck neck". At present, the US government regards China as a direct challenger to global hegemony and unilaterally opens all-round strategic competition with China. In this context,
China's primary goal in maintaining energy security is not to allow energy to become a tool to balance China's development. To ensure energy security, the first thing is to ensure a stable energy supply. In 2019, China's dependence on oil and gas has reached 70.8% and 43%, indicating that China is highly dependent on energy imports. From the perspective of energy power game, energy control may become an important part of the big power game. In order to maintain its own energy security, China has actively promoted the diversification of energy import channels, and has built energy partnerships with Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela. In the context of Russia's energy strategy pivoting to east, strengthening energy cooperation with Russia can not only maintain its own energy supply security, maintain sufficient energy strategic reserves to cope with great power competition, but also help Russia reduce losses in the face of European energy sanctions. In short, strengthening energy cooperation is a win-win option for China and Russia.
III.The impacts of strengthening energy cooperation between China and Russia
Against the backdrop of intensifying competition among major powers, China and Russia have established a stable bilateral cooperative partnership. Energy cooperation is an important part of bilateral cooperation between China and Russia. In order to weaken the negative impact of Western energy sanctions, Russia is actively promoting the energy strategy to pivot to the East, and China should seize this opportunity to actively strengthen cooperation with Russia in energy supply, energy technology, energy economy and other fields, so as to maintain China's energy security from various aspects. At the same time, strengthening the energy cooperation between China and Russia could have a positive impact on the stability of the global energy pattern and energy supply chain.
Impact on Russia
Deepening bilateral energy cooperation can help Russia maintain its existing energy power, maintain energy revenues, and maintain Russia's status and status as a great power in the international system while improving its geopolitical environment. Russia's energy strategy pivoting to the East is an important measure to deal with diversified sanctions such as the European and American economies through "energy weapons", and is an effective means for Russia to maintain its existing energy power. The Asia-Pacific region, including China, has a huge energy market, and many countries rely heavily on energy imports. Strengthening cooperation with Eastern countries in the field of energy can not only maintain its dominant position in the global energy supply chain, but also build partnerships with other countries to break through the front of the United States and the West to isolate Russia, which is in line with their long-term interests.
Impact on China
Deepening bilateral energy cooperation is of positive significance to China's efforts to safeguard national energy security and build a diversified energy import system. China and Russia are highly complementary in terms of energy supply and demand structure. China, which has a high demand for energy, can bear Russia's excess capacity to the greatest extent. Russia's energy strategy pivot to the east would contribute to the stability of China's energy supply and increase energy reserves. China's massive energy import demand, coupled with its over-reliance on a single import channel, can amplify the impact of unexpected events on national energy security. In addition to Russian crude oil, China's other crude oil imports are transported by sea, most of which pass through the Strait of Malacca. As the competition between China and the United States intensifies, the United States may use the Southeast Asian alliance system and overseas military power to control the Strait of Malacca in extreme cases, seriously threatening China's energy imports. Under such circumstances, strengthening energy cooperation with Russia can effectively ensure the security of energy supply and energy transportation, and avoid related risks.
Impact on the world
As a major global energy producer, Russia carries out energy cooperation with China and other major energy producers and consumers in the world, plays a positive role in the balance of the global energy market, and plays the role of a constructive hub and a stable force in the global energy supply chain. The continued escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the
Middle East are increasing the risks to global energy security. At the same time, the instability of energy supply, international energy prices may continue to rise, which has a huge impact on the economic development and social livelihood of energy-consuming countries, especially developing countries. Between January and September 2022, mass protests erupted in at least 90 countries, mostly poor developing countries, over fuel shortages or high prices. The rupture of the global energy supply chain may lead to more livelihood crises and political crises, such as spillover and a global food crisis. Under the circumstances of energy sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia, Russia's strategy pivot to the East can strengthen cooperation with China and other Asia-Pacific countries, thereby maintaining the stability of global energy supply, which is of great significance for solving the global energy crisis and food crisis. At the same time, as permanent members of the UN Security Council, China and Russia actively shoulder the responsibilities of major countries, oppose unilateralism and power politics, and can contribute to the energy security of the global South to a greater extent. In general, strengthening energy cooperation is conducive to maintaining the balance of the existing world energy power structure and maintaining the stability of the global energy supply chain.
IV. Conclusion
Since the Biden administration took office, the strategy of the United States using the alliance system to carry out "double checks and balances" against China and Russia has gradually become clear, while imposing sanctions and containment on the two countries. In the field of traditional energy, Russia has a power game with the United States and Europe. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States and Europe successively imposed multiple sanctions on Russia, such as energy embargoes, energy price limits and financial sanctions, which brought serious challenges to Russia's energy exports and maintenance of existing energy rights. In the field of new energy, Western societies are also actively blocking the development of China's new energy technology and the export of products. It can be said that great power competition in the energy field is inevitable. Under these circumstances, China and Russia have generated in-depth cooperation in the fields of energy technology, energy production and energy finance based on the previous good cooperation foundation.
It is clear that strengthening energy cooperation between China and Russia is not only in the national interests of both countries, but also has a positive impact on the security and stability of the world's energy supply chain. Guided by market logic, Russia actively promotes the energy strategy to pivot to the East, which can not only maintain energy exports and stabilize energy power, but also deepen political mutual trust between China and Russia, promote the in-depth development of bilateral economic and trade cooperation, and thus maintain Russia's status as a major power in the international system. Under the guidance of the concept of energy security governance, China has seized the opportunity of Russia's energy strategic transformation, actively strengthened energy cooperation with Russia in the Far East, and tried to use this as an opportunity to promote the comprehensive revitalization of Northeast China while expanding energy imports and promoting energy supply security. It can be said that the deepening of energy cooperation between China and Russia is in line with the geopolitical and economic development strategies of the two countries. At the same time, it will also help maintain the balance of the existing world energy power structure and maintain the stability of the global energy supply chain, which is of positive significance to global non-traditional security governance.
ИСТОРИЧЕСКАЯ ВОЗМОЖНОСТЬ И ВЛИЯНИЕ КИТАЯ И РОССИИ НА УКРЕПЛЕНИЕ ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКОГО СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВА
Лю Пэнци
студент магистратуры, Институт международных и общественных отношений, Цзилиньский университет
liuaa77@163.com Ли Мэнлун
кандидат исторических наук, старший преподаватель, Институт международных и
общественных отношений, Цзилиньский университет
limenglong@jlu.edu.cn
Аннотация: с введением последней версии Стратегии национальной безопасности США конкуренция великих держав вновь официально стала ключевым вопросом мировой политики и постепенно распространилась из традиционной сферы безопасности в нетрадиционную сферу безопасности. В современном мире традиционные и нетрадиционные вопросы безопасности переплетаются, что усложняет управление глобальной безопасностью. Энергетика является незаменимой материальной основой человеческого общества, и способы обеспечения энергетической безопасности являются важной частью глобального управления и международного сотрудничества, которые связаны с национальной безопасностью и экономическим развитием субъектов. После начала российско-украинского конфликта западное общество во главе с Соединенными Штатами ввело энергетические санкции против России, которые серьезно подорвали безопасность и стабильность существующей глобальной цепочки поставок энергоносителей, и долгосрочная система глобального энергетического сотрудничества также столкнулась со многими вызовами. В контексте поворота России на Восток Китай должен воспользоваться исторической возможностью для укрепления сотрудничества с Россией в энергетической и других областях. Это отвечает не только национальным интересам Китая и России, но и интересам всего мира, особенно развивающихся стран. Укрепление энергетического сотрудничества может не только способствовать диверсификации импорта энергоносителей Китаем, обеспечить безопасность энергоснабжения, помочь России эффективно снизить потери, вызванные западными санкциями, и сохранить энергетическую мощь, но и удовлетворить потребности развивающихся стран в энергетической безопасности, избежать риска фрагментации глобальной цепочки поставок энергоресурсов, а также поддерживать безопасность и стабильность эффективного глобального энергоснабжения.
Ключевые слова: российско-украинский конфликт, энергетическое сотрудничество, глобальное энергетическое управление, энергетическая безопасность, китайско-российское сотрудничество
Для цитирования: Liu Pengqi, Li Menglong. The historical opportunity and impact of China-Russia to strengthen energy cooperation// Архонт, 2023. № 4(37). С. 90-94.
