CC BY
1
X4-Exchange rate
The interpretation of the results is following:
1. When export increases by 1, GDP increases by 0,61 and vice versa; when import increases by 1, GDP rise by 1,76 and etc. We can see the weights of variables in GDP.
2. Coefficient of determination R2 is 0,99, 99% of total deviation of inflation is explained by the variation of variables. It means that value of R2 reliable indicator and shows significant correlation.
3. According to the F-test, F = 1718 > Fcr = 3, There is a significant linear effect between variables and GDP and our model is correctly specified.1
4. T-test
According to the T-test not all t-calculated is higher than t-crit therefore, not all independent variables show significant effect to the dependent variable. Import shows the largest influence on GDP, it can be described as services imported are used to produce goods and services for nation consumption. Also Exchange rate and import shows s significant affect because different exchange rate influence on import price that, in turn, influence on GDP.
References
1.World bank // Data bank - URL: http://www.worldbank.org/
2.Трегуб, И.В. Математические модели динамики экономических систем: моногр. — М. : Финакадемия, 2009 .— 118 с.
3.Трегуб И.В. Прогнозирование экономических показателей - монография, М.: 2009.
4.Suslov M., Tregub I. Modeling the currency exchange rate. Methods and principles // Economics. 2015. № 1.
JEL classification: E24, F66, J15, J21, J23, J24, J61, J62, O15
OKUNEVICIUTE NEVERA USKIENE Lama Associate professor, Doctor of social sciences Vilnius Gediminas Technical University Lithuania Social Research Centre Vilnius, Lithuania POCIUS Arnnas Senior researcher Lithuania Social Research Centre Vilnius, Lithuania THE EVALUATION OF THE THIRD COUNTRIES CITIZENS DEMAND IN THE LABOUR MARKET: LITHUANIAN CASE Abstract. In this article is analyzed the third countries citizens position in the labour market, investigation of the factors, which influence situation of the
1 Трегуб, И.В. Математические модели динамики экономических систем : моногр. — М. : Финакадемия, 2009
.— 118 с.
labour market in the country, assessment of the target group persons demand in the different companies. Analysis is substantiated it was accomplished by the special research (employers survey) results. Assessing of the situation it is very important the employers as an experts opinion which has the biggest feeling of the present economic pulse and its changing perspectives, even if the latter third countries citizens integrative attitude reflects indirectly. The next priority of this article is the third countries citizen integration to the labour market the evaluation of situation on the basis of various target groups survey results, which helps deeply to reveal the third countries integration and observed labour supply discrepancy causing reasons.
Key words: the third country citizens, labour market, integration to the labour market, migration.
Introduction
Migration problem is one of the main challenges to EU these days. On the one hand, migrants became very meaningful because of the aging issue in EU. On the other hand, it is difficult to integrate the third countries immigrants successfully even to EU countries which have a strong economics. On the strength of European Commission press release, migration problem has to be solved by all EU countries, it cannot be just one country issue. Therefore, European Response System was determined where internal and external policies are combined and opportunities of EU agencies and mechanisms are used optimally. Member States, EU institutions, international organizations, civil society, local government institutions and third countries are all included.
Various pull and push factors affect migration but the most significant factor is big differences between living standards in different countries (Vidal et al. 2017; Pokrovskaya et al. 2017; Prokkola, 2016; Paul 2015; Koikkalainen 2016; Jayet, Marchal, 2016; Koubi et al. 2016; Arpaia et al. 2016). The effect of push factor exceeds the influence of pull factor in Lithuania. According to traditional labour displacement factors, excess of qualified labour force had a significant meaning in Lithuania a few decades ago. Nevertheless, the lack of labour resources became more and more important problem when Lithuania had joined EU. One of the solutions to make the situation better was the attraction of the third countries citizens to Lithuania. According to the last year statistical data, employment of foreigners is becoming more significant for working restocking and economic growth.
The relevance of the article condition and this that in Lithuania especially is the lack of scientific publications target groups delegates integration to the labour market themes, even there are a lot of scientific works about migration processes (Sipaviciene 2006; Zibas 2007-2015; Kuliesis et al. 2011; Stankuniene 2011; Beresneviciute 2012). In the research, we follow the assumption that employers provisions to integrate the third countries citizens to the Lithuania's labour market reflects the labour market demands.
In Lithuania there is a lack of comprehensive scientific research about the third countries citizens situation to the labour market, theirs demands and
integration. When our country became the member of EU the problems of the integration to the labour market became more relevant, in the year of economic rise quite rapidly increased the number of foreigners who is trying to get a job here. On another hand, the third countries citizens working integration opportunities depend on their demand in the labour market. It is important to mention that transport workers were the priority in promoting labour force from the third countries in Lithuania. According to Lithuanian Labour Exchange under the Ministry of Social Security and Labour data, 90 percent of permissions were given to international freight vehicle drivers in 2016. However, the number of construction sector workers was the highest before the economic crisis (based on Lithuanian Labour Exchange data it was 47 percent in 2007). In the opinion of employers, the first immigrants can wait in the service sector and they are not required to get jobs with very good language skills (Celesiute 2011; Petrusauskaite, Batuchina 2015).
The evaluation of the third countries citizens demand in the labour market (The analysis of statistical data)
The evaluation of the third countries citizens demand in the labour market was accomplished on the basis of tree aspects. The first aspect consists of the analysis of the situation in long time retrospective which covers previous period of economic growth and previous fluctuation of development of households. This period was a rise period because of growing trend in the employment of the third countries citizens. The second aspect was examining by the period of economic decline when the opportunities to be integrated into labour market were decreased. The third aspect includes opportunities of development of target group employment in current economic growth.
According to the data of Lithuania Labour Exchange, the fluctuation of the third countries citizens demand index was slight in 1995-2004 (Fig. 1).
On the other hand, the third countries citizens demand in the labour market has increased because of the lack of qualified workers when Lithuania had joined EU. The discrepancy of labour supply and demand was the one of the key internal factor which promotes the third countries citizens migration to Lithuania. During the 1995-2008 period the third countries citizens demand in the labour market increased almost 20 times though the meaning of this index decreased to 5.5 times. The third countries citizens demand in the labour market grew more rapidly in 2005-2008 period. Previously, the change of foreigners' demand in the labour market was slower. It means that the change of the number of general labour permissions was not really significant as the change in 2005-2007 period. The number of labour permissions was the lowest in 1995 (it is just 410). Similar situation was in 2002. During the 1995-2004 period the highest number of foreigners was employed in 1999.
16000
Fig. 1. The changes of the third countries citizens employment (the number of general labour permissions) (Source: compiled by authors based on Lithuanian Labour Exchange under the Ministry of Social Security and Labour data)
Remark*: 2016 year includes I—III quarters.
It should be mentioned that the period of long previous economic growth should reflect perspectives of change in the third countries citizens labour market more than the shorter situation affected by the crisis when opportunities to get a job are limited. The assessment in the way of perspective is very relevant especially when the economic is in growth. Formed structural discrepancies in labour supply and demand had an influence on opportunities of third countries labour market. Comparative lack of low qualified profession employees motivated this kind of labourers to immigrate to Lithuania.
During the economic crisis, limiting reasons of the third country citizens employment had the stronger influence on the labour market of target group than the stimulating reasons of working integration. As a result, the number of the third countries citizens decreased. During the 2010, Lithuanian Labour Exchange gave 1.8 thousands labour permissions. This index has been increasing constantly. The fastest growth of the number of the employed third countries citizens was in the last year of economic growth. During the 2010-2014 period the growth of the number of the employed third countries citizens was more moderate. Facts like that confirm the assumption that the employment of the third countries citizens increases when economic situation is better. By the way, current employment of the third countries citizens is higher than previous period of economic growth.
In spite of increased opportunities in employment of the third countries citizens in the last few years, the number of Lithuanian immigrants from Ukraine and Belarus decreased in 2015 though the number of employed immigrants (especially from Ukraine because of complicated geopolitical situation) increased
strongly. The reason of current changes in immigration structure in Lithuania was the fluctuation of returning emigrants. On the other hand, the part of Russian and other countries citizens shrank the most from 2001 (Fig. 2).
120,0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 □ Belarus В Russia О Ukraine О USA □ Other countries □ Lithuania
Fig. 2. Immigrants structure by nationality in Lithuania (%) (Source: compiled by authors based on Lithuanian Statistics)
According to Lithuanian Labour Exchange under the Ministry of Social Security and Labour data, citizens from Ukraine and Belarus were the majority of employed persons from the third countries (it was 58 and 32 percent in 2016). Citizens from other countries were much less. Russian and Moldovan workers were a little bit more (Fig. 3).
□ Other countries
□ Serbia
□ Georgia
□ Sri Lanka
□ Russia
□ China
□ Moldovia
□ Belarus
□ Ukraine
Fig. 3. The structure of employed foreign citizens by the country of birth (%) (Source: compiled by authors based on Lithuanian Labour Exchange under the Ministry of Social Security and Labour data)
Lithuanian labour market is becoming more and more open to the third countries citizens in the last year. Nevertheless, our country is still the leader of labour resources loss in EU countries. According to the authors calculation based on Eurostat and International Migration Organization databases, net migration in Lithuania was the highest comparing with EU countries in 2010-2014 (it was even -11 promiles per thousand citizens) (Fig. 4).
Fig. 4. Net migration in EU countries (average of 2010-2014, for thousand
citizens)
(Source: compiled by authors based on Eurostat data)
The process of the research. Methodical concept
One of the essential methods whereby the authors of article did for the third countries citizens situation evaluation in the labour market - questionnaire survey. On a basis of written questioning the aim is to find out the different studied group provisions about the target group integration (employment) possibilities in the country market.
The research was based on data of the employers survey. Employers (different institutions managing staff) survey was carried out in 2014 to implement the project "The third countries citizens integration to the Lithuanian labour market
evaluation of possibilities, information about this target group collection and comparison". In the survey participated 213 employers (different institution managing stuff).
To accomplish employers (different institution managing stuff) were formulated some different companies lists. One of the them was created with reference to Lithuanian Labour Exchange data about the third countries citizens recruiting companies. Considering to relatively not a high survey questionnaire change to this kind of research it was formulated general companies list, in which was sent the employers research questionnaire. This list was made considering to Lithuanian Labour Exchange data and authors research storage information about the country companies. To the general companies list were involved and another employers, which in the good conditions could be a potential third countries citizens employers. The criteria for making general companies list survey is - workers working in the country companies distribution among the economic activities.
Survey method - questionnaire. This collection of information type is good because in the certain time is questionnaired quite a big number of person.
To make research there were used these methods:
■ Survey via email, sending electronic questionnaire version with specified return date;
■ Verbal questionnaire when interviewer directly contacting with respondent ask questions which are in the questionnaire and fixate the answers;
■ Simple questionnaire when survey is given directly to employer or their representative and after some time they are taking it back.
Separate employers (separate institution managing staff) research characteristics
The third countries citizens qualification matching labour market demands
On the basis of research to compare a lot of employers - almost 40 percent think that coming to work in their economic company third countries citizens having profession qualification suits labour market demands, one - fifth of them choose the answer "partly", only every fourteenth - "no". But in the research participated quite a lot of workers who could not express their opinion about this specific question (Fig. 5).
Fig. 5. Do the third countries citizens qualifications suits labour market demands? (%) (Source: based on employers research data)
Despite the serious consequences of the economic crisis employers who participated in the research identified quite a lot of occupations which has the third countries citizens would be appropriate to employ to the survey in economic activities. Analyzing the situation by the employers survey data it was divided some missing specialty which in this research participated respondents mentioned even few times. According to the respondents the most appropriate way would be to employ these professions of the third country citizens: drivers-forwarders, international transportation drivers, cookers, welders, ships collectors, managers, engineers. However there is demand and by others professions which you can find in the attached table. Among the three most demanded specialties there are not construction professions. However, the last fact can be explained by the decline in construction demand, employers may very well manage with local labour resources, because there was formed a relative surplus of labour resources in the internal market. On the other side, there is no doubt, that on the economic boom missing workers occupations list by the divided statistic criteria would be even longer. Despite of this, from our divided list we can see that at this moment there are already in great demand these construction professions possessed third countries citizens: welders, finishers, woodworkers, concrete workers. The most in demand are the transport sector employees - drivers-forwarders, international transportation drivers.
The demand of the third countries citizens in the labour market and integration problems solution
Solving the need for skilled workers problems in the Lithuanian Government's act for Lithuanian immigration policy guidelines approval it was focused on the missing labour force compensation principle (Official Gazette 2008, No. 143-5706). By the opinion of the act authors, employees from the third countries must be involved to compensate the shortage of labour force when this shortage cannot compensate local labour force, coming back from emigration employable citizens or implementing the free person's movement principle. It is argued that
labour force attraction from the third countries should not encourage Lithuanian Republic citizens to leave.
The scientific literature suggests that integration policy of the target group remains entirely only for foreigners who got refuge in Lithuania, at the same time for the third countries citizens integration there is paying less attention (Zibas, Plataciute 2009). On the other side, integration, closely relevant to the equal opportunities in various fields, not only creates conditions for foreigners to keep and develop their own cultural social distinction and maintain social and economic welfare, but even together it undertake to respect social dominant group culture, politic, social and economic system, to keep particular fellow citizens responsibilities (Rudominskis 2010).
One of the most important reasons, which employers directly are interested for the labour resources from the third countries use in the Lithuanian labour market is this, that, in their opinion, educational institutions prepare insufficient amount of qualified individual profession workers. It shows various in the economic boom made researches. In this contest, we can evaluate and recent our survey results for the labour resources from the third countries use in Lithuanian labour market. Employers research shows, that perhaps the most essential needs of third-countries for the existence reasons respondents considered the shortage of qualified staff in different sectors and high labour force costs (these were the reasons given respectively 49 and 34 percent. interviewees) but even more important factor, significant fall in the economic situation of our country became employees emigration (53 percent).
The third countries citizen placement encourages and the other problems which faces our companies. Such as sufficiently important reasons, stimulating companies to employ the third country citizens, employers indicated as well small local employees motivation, more open European Union countries labour market also local employees labour quality inadequacy requirements (these answers versions choose respectively 29.18 and 13 percent interviewees). It is important to mention that before placement for third country citizens it has to be solved permission to arrive (live)1 and work purchase questions which are very important for target group integration to the labour market case (Fig. 6).
1 Republic of Lithuania Law - On the Legal Status of Aliens. Official Gazette No. 73-2539, 2004.
The lack of qualified workers in separate agriculture sectors
The high local labor force cost ( company is not able to pay higher wage for local workers)
Some local workers are fired because their job quality does not suit employers requirements
Low local workers job motivation
Some of the country companies employers give a job for a third country citizens
Low labor productivity does not encourage employers more efficiently use local labor resources
Educational institutions prepare not enough qualified separate profession workers
More open becomes European Union countries labor market
Employees emigration to another European Union countries
Due to the low birth rate and population aging perspective in the country's economy will be decrease of workers
Dalis vietini^ darbuotoj^ sunkiai prisitaiko prie darbdavi^ poreiki^ Seasonal company's work format Lack of qualified workers in the small country areas
Other
49.1
33.5
13.2
28.8
4.7
8.0
9.
5.7
1
11.8
17.9
52.8
11.3
12.3 11.3
10
20
30
40
50
% 60
Fig. 6. Employer's (leadership staff) answers to the question "For what reasons in your opinion, employers directly are interested to labour resources from the third countries use in Lithuania's labour market?" distribution (%)?
(Source: based on employers research data)
A large part of these reasons directly or not directly shows that employer's requirements in the fall of economic situation both local and external labour resources significantly increased. Furthermore quite important and not ignored are employers attitude, that part of local workers hardly adapt to the demand of workers, educational institutions prepare not enough of qualified separate profession workers, lack of qualified workers in the small country areas. These answers mentioned 11-12 percent interviewees (Fig. 7).
Other (often specific) reasons, determining the third countries citizens placement in the Lithuanian companies (economic activities):
■ Lack of the special qualification workers;
■ Companies specific;
■ Investors into the managerial positions invite to work people which gained more international experience and who are qualified appropriate range specialists;
■ People like chinese food in Lithuania;
■ Foreigners more appreciate workplace then Lithuanian workers;
■ Local labour force poorly know foreign languages;
■ Local workers negligence, depart of duties;
■ Foreign stockholders condition;
■ Work related with frequent missions.
0
58 percent of employers the third country citizens placement considered as a suitable mean to solve lack of labour force problem in the economic boom, 22 percent about this question did not have any opinion, 20 percent this tool considered as a not appropriate. As the research results shows, third (not EU) countries placement means assessment can be quite different from the particular companies plans, although in general, in our research data, third countries citizens placement in the economic boom context was assessed beneficial.
For instance, in the research of the Social Innovation Institute was questioned about the idea to employ the third country citizens who has high qualification, many said that there is no that kind of plans (71 percent ), quite a big part of questioned didn't have their opinion (22 percent). Only 7 percent of employers indicated that they are willing to employ foreigners in their companies (Fig. 7).
I don't know, I cannot say 22.4%
An appropraite mean 57.6%
Not appropriate mean 20.0%
Fig. 7. Employers answers to the question "How do you rate persons from the third (not EU) countries placement solving lack of labour force problem in the
economic boom?" distribution (%) (Source: based on the data of employers survey of North Lithuania region by implementing the Project of Integration promotion and third countries citizens
reception in North Lithuania region)
From the data of the research made by the article authors, employers who participated in the research assessed placement means suitability. The biggest part of the employers the third country citizens placement means suitability assessed as a good or average (respectively 30 and 39 percent) very good it was assessed by 16 percent of the interviewees (Fig. 8). Badly such a qualified lack of labour force problems solution assessed approximately tenth of interviewees, as a very bad was assessed by the 4 percent.
Very good 15.6%
Good 29.9%
Very bad 3.8%
Bad 11.4%
39.3%
Fig. 8. Employers answers to the question "How do you rate the third country citizens employment in Lithuania as a means to solve lack of qualified employers problem in the economic boom?" distribution (% (Source: based on employers research data)
To sum up the research results, we can notice that in the context of prospects in the economic growth employers the third country placement mean, solving lack of qualified labour force problem, generally assessed kindly although different companies managers group expressible attitudes are quite significant. It shows quite important attitude differences. The biggest part of employers the third country placement assessed as a good or very good (45 percent), less but also very numerous group (40 percent) this mean assessed average. The smallest group was sceptics (15 percent) who target group integration to the labour market opportunities assessed unfavourable - badly and very bad. It is important to say that in the economic downturn sceptics, badly integration assessed part of people has to go up.
Employers priority by the third country citizens origin country
As you can see from our research results, employers priority by the third country citizens origin country is distributed not equally (Fig. 9). The results which we got are influenced by the various factors - employers opinion about the separate nations citizens, accomplished work quality and their professional characteristic, existing commercial and cultural links have traditionally formed, language barriers absence or being, origin country geographical location, etc. According to survey data in the research participated companies representatives fairly active indicated priorities to employ the third country citizens. On the average one hundred employers got about 160 answers. Recruiting persons from the third country citizens, mostly employers would give priority to the closest living to Lithuania Slav country citizens, 44 percent employers would give priority to the Belarus native people, approximately every third - for Ukraine, every fourth - for Russian
Federation. For other country citizens priority would be given not often: who arrived from Moldova and China would like to give a job respectively 7 and 11 percent of
employers, from Turkey - 0.5 percent (Fig. 9).
Fig. 9. Employers answers to the question "If you would employ third country citizens, indicate, for which country citizens would you give a priority?"
distribution (%) (Source: based on employers research data)
The distribution of existing priorities influence already formed economic and cultural connections, however, approximately one-third of employers said, that employing third country citizens the origin country for them is not important. The third country citizens realization of integration goals It was made a point that in the Independent Lithuania society attitude towards migrants in the research showed that third country citizens migration, like many other usual social phenomena in the democratic world, the post-Soviet is surrounded by the variety of stereotypes. The lack of the knowledge about migration policy in Lithuania supports the third country citizens who are living in this country discrimination and evaluation of stereotypes.
The third country citizens realization of integration goals is related with various groups of residents knowledge about the integration. Companies managers attitude reflects employers (leading staff) survey results. As the research shows, knowledge about the third country citizens integration possibilities is not sufficient for employers. We believe that difficult economic burden having employers do not have enough time to increase their legal literacy about this question, even if it could make it easy to solve the problems of the target group integration. The most important thing is that it would be formed human attitude towards third country
citizens, as a persons, who can actively participate in our economic development and successfully participate in the social integration process.
Let us discuss about the results of research, related with knowledge of employers about the target group integration. The majority of employers relatively has not sufficient knowledge about the separate EU economic migration or third country citizens placement regulation documents (Fig. 10). It is evidenced relatively poor employers sophistication about the third country citizens integration.
However, majority of employers (approximately every second respondent) does not know (does not have any information) about the "Blue card" existing and in Lithuania prepared Economic migration regulation strategy, almost 40 percent does not know about European Committee directive on the restriction of illegal migration, 35 percent - for the fight against undeclared work existence (Fig. 10).
1
„Blue card", which encourages those who has higher education qualified third country citizens placement in the EU countries
European Committee directive for illegal immigration restriction
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Europos Komisijos direktyva del kovos su nelegaliu darbu
In Lithuania prepared Economic migration regulation strategy
2.8
29.9
55.0
34.8
38.6
■■■■■■ 5.7
25.2
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAA AAAAA
33.8 35.2
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
4.4.4.4.4.4.4.4.4.4.4.4.4.4.4.
25.8
53.6
10
20
30
40
50
% 60
0
□ I am aware with content of the document
□ I know about the main document purposes (or purpose) but i have not analyzed it
□ I know only about the existing of the document ID I have no information
Fig. 10. Employers answers to the question "Do you know the separate before EU and in Lithuania prepared or predictable economic migration or third country placement regulation documents?" distribution (%) (Source: based on employers research data)
About the existence of these documents know almost one third of employers, exception - Economic migration strategy, about which knows almost one fourth employers. With all these mentions documents content met only a relatively small
part of employers (from 3 till 8 percent). The others essential documents, which is related with third country migration or placement EU or Lithuanian extent
■ Foreigners employment legislation;
■ Republic of Lithuania Law - On the Legal Status of Aliens;
■ Merchant Shipping Law of the Republic of Lithuania.
Considered interior country migrant integration policy has to be one of the main factors, which could ensure the country's social and economic stability. Thanks to integration in Lithuania located and integrated society migrants, for some possible changes in the economy, policy, social range, for government it would not be a burden and they would solve problems by themselves. Existing integration goals reflects policy realia. Attitude of the employers for the third countries placement in Lithuania with large part is related to target group integration goals evaluation.
The answers which we got, employers assessing in Lithuania implemented the EU's ambition to make a good conditions for the third country citizens, could be changing in some opinions scale as a "very good" and "very bad" limits, but research participants chose them very rarely. For really big assessment distribution difference in the research was used positive assessment criteria which expresses the options "good" and "very good" amount. In Lithuania implemented EU's goal to make a good work conditions for third country (not EU) citizens employers often evaluate it averagely (Fig. 11).
Programs and activities, designed to introduce third country citizens to the Lithuanian society and to provide and improve knowledge about Lithuania
High qualification third country citizens acceptence to the labor market and promotion of integration in Lithuania
Lithuanian government acceptence for the third country citizens integration and strenghtening
Information about the third country citizens need collection
Possibility to use interpreter service for third country citizens requesting to the authorities of the Republic of Lithuania
±Ü 5.0
71 3.0
vmmmml 16.7
51.0
j 21.1
53.5
3.5
22.2
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
5.6
il 4.1
20.7
49.5
20.7
21.3
5.1
] 48.7
20.8
10
20
30
40
50
% 60
0
□ Very good QGood DAverage DBad EVery bad
Fig. 11. Employers answers to the question "How do you rate the EU institutions goal to create a good work conditions for the third (not European Union) country
citizens in Lithuania?" distribution (%) (Source: based on employers research data)
It can be argued that quite a lot of company managers were interested to create a good work conditions for third country citizens. It would help to solve lack of qualified workers problems, which exists even when is high unemployment. For instance, a number of employers are concerned about a lack of appropriate specialists. It is claimed that in 2010 in the second half this problem showed especially in food and drinks, textiles and clothing, wood and furniture, and chemical industries (Kapociute 2010).
Employers better evaluate programs and activities which is committed to introduce third country citizens with Lithuanian society and provide and improve knowledge about Lithuania (28 percent of respondents rated as good or very good, 51 percent - average) also high qualified third country citizens acceptance to the labour market integration and the promotion in Lithuania (29 percent of respondents rated it as good or very good, 45 percent - average). Other activities employers rated even worse.
Lithuanian society approval for third country citizens for the strengthening of integration good and very good rated 20 percent of employers, 54 percent - average ), information about the third country citizens needs collection (24 percent - good and very good, 50 percent - average). Very similar as a collection of target group needs case, distributed possibilities to use interpreter service for third country citizens applying to the Lithuanian Republic institute assessment (25 percent rated it as good and very good, 49 percent - average).
In the negative evaluation case the answers were similar. The European Unions goals to create a good work conditions third (not European Union) country citizens in Lithuania negative rated approximately one-fourth employers (bad -about 20 percent, very bad - about 5 percent). Under different measures employers opinion about this question almost was the same. Exception in program and activities, which are committed to introduce third country citizens with Lithuanian society and provide and improve knowledge about Lithuania. It negative (bad and very bad) was rated by the one-fifth of employers.
Our country government institutions efforts to create a good work conditions for third country citizens (not from European country) respondents generally also rated average (Fig. 12). As the question below, survey participants better rated high qualified third country citizens acceptance to the labour market and integration in Lithuania promotion (28 percent of respondents this measure rated as good or very good, 41 percent - average).
The other activity indicators our institute underway efforts attitude was less favourable. Programs and activities which are committed to introduce third country citizens with Lithuanian society and provide and improve knowledge about Lithuania good and very good were rated by 23 percent of employers, 50 percent -average. Possibilities to use interpreter service for third country citizens applying for the Lithuanian Republic institute results distributed like this: 23 percent of respondents rated it as a good and very good, 45 percent - average.
Relatively even worse was rated our country institute information about the third country need collection (19 percent of respondents this measure rated as a good or very good, 50 percent - average) and Lithuanian society approval for third county citizens integration consolidation (good and very good rated 18 percent of employers, 47 - average).
□Very good DGood DAverage BBad BVery bad
Fig. 12. Employers answers to the question "How do you rate our country government institution efforts to create a good work conditions for third country (not European Union) citizens?" distribution (%) (Source: based on employers research data)
Among negative evaluation (answers version "bad" and "very bad") employers often mentioned Lithuanian society approval for third country citizens integration consolidation (this mentioned even 36 percent of respondents) rarely negative attitude were divided rating program and activities, which is committed to introduce third country citizens with Lithuanian society and to provide and improve knowledge about Lithuania (27 percent). In the other measures realization case negative answers were very similar.
Even thought our country government institute efforts to create a good work conditions for the third country (not European Union) citizens employers often rate average, however in all cases negative assessments was relatively more then positive. In that way existing our institute efforts integrating third country citizens
often was rated average, even between rarely divided positive and negative answers variants were more highlighted negative assesments than possitive. One exception - program and activities assessment, which is committed to introduce third country citizens with Lithuanian society and to provide and improve their knowledge about Lithuania, where answers "good" and "bad" coincided (it was chosen by one - fifth of respondents). As it showed in 2012 accomplished employed third country citizens survey, majority of respondents third country citizens housing in Lithuania rated positive2. Housing was rated good by the six-tenth of respondents, almost one third - average, 6 percent - very good). Very bad and bad housing was considered by 1 percent of respondents (Fig. 13).
Fig. 13. Respondents living conditions in Lithuania evaluation. Third country
citizens survey data (%) (Source: based on third country citizens survey data)
A large part of employers seeking to attract to our labour market third country citizens, take care of their living conditions paying their expenses for the services. For the 63 percents of citizens employers provided a possibility to use at least one service for free. For 43 percents of respondents was paid house expenses, almost 20 percent - food expenses, for 21 percent - was provided vehicle, for 19 percent was organized free arrival to work and coming back home (Fig. 14).
As you can see quite a big attention employers paid for third country citizens transport expenses compensation. It helped to solve their mobility problems. That employers pay a big attention for employees transport (territorial mobility) problems solve, shows and another data, however effective their solution was limited by other factors.
2012 years Labour and Social Research Institute accomplished by the Territorial mobility survey data, the main reason, interfering to bring employees from the different areas, was the lack of finance resources. This reason indicated 55 percents of respondents. Almost the same (53 percents of survey participants)
2 Third country citizens integration to the labour market possibilities research. Vilnius, The Institute of Labour and Social Research, 2012._
□Very good □ Good
□ Average
□ Bad
■ Very bad
indicated that government institutions not enough encourages territorial mobility. Almost four tenth of employers complained about the lack of the time and organizational failures, 36 percent - low territorial residents mobility. The study showed that low internal mobility of the population is important, although not the most important territorial migration work limiting reason in the domestic market. It takes the fourth place in the research indicated reasons, influencing territorial mobility, importance (after financial resources, lack of encourage territorial mobility, organizational failures and lack of the time).
Pay the housing expenses
Pay the food expenses
Provide the vehicle
Organize the free arrival to work and coming back
Does not provide any of these conditions
Other
5.4
42.9
18.8
21.4
18.8
36.6
%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Fig. 14. Answers to the question "Indicate, which living conditions provide your
employer?" distribution (%) Source: (based on the third country citizens survey data)
Structuring the results of the survey, it is possible to distinguish the following groups of managers:
• employers, thinking that their company employees transporting and its financing is not actual problem - 12 percent;
• employers, which in case of the lack of employers by themselves would bring employees, but if there is a possibility, would use the governments support -50 percent;
• employers, who will carry employers by themselves just in case if the get a governments support - 38 percent
The territorial mobility promotion methods. The employees who are living far away from work are coming to work by themselves but employers compensate the travel expenses. This territorial mobility promotion method indicated the most (even three fourth) of employers. From the same labour and social research data, 67 percent territorial promotion mobility for employers is the most valuable. In this way, we can state that the vast majority of employees come to work on their own initiative. Three tenths of promoting territorial mobility employers accommodates workers near the residence, same of them drives employees to the workplace by
their own initiative. Quite a lot of territorial promotion mobility employers thought that for workers the most useful way is to accommodate them near their workplace (this answer chose 35 percents of respondents). That carry workers to their workplace by their own initiative is useful admitted only 14 percent of employers, but 30 percent territorial promotion mobility employers carried them to work forced of the circumstances: because of the lack of work force and quite low its territorial mobility.
As the research shows, countries employers pay quite a lot of attention to increase labour resources (internal and external, raised from third countries) territorial mobility. The main territorial promotion mobility forms - compensation of transport expenses, transporting employees to workplace by the employers initiative.
Labour supply and demand mismatch and other factors that influence the situation in the labour market in the economic boom
There is a growing depletion of skilled human resources in Lithuania, so now it is a need to attract them from other countries. One of the main factors, stimulating the third country citizens economic migration to Lithuania - labour supply and demand mismatch. However the third country citizens integration possibilities affected and other specific factors more affecting their employment during the economic boom. Third country citizens employment possibilities in the economic boom in Lithuania we can relate with job vacancies reasons. As it shows our research results, essential motives, for the company interests to employ third country citizens and previous studies revealed the main reasons for filling jobs are actually very similar.
It is very important to note, that in the economic boom it should be more reflective third-country citizens employment changes prospects than crisis situation, as the target groups persons employment opportunities are rather limited. It is especially relevant this evaluation by the perspective attitude, when showed signs of recovery in the economic situation.
Analyzing previous institute research results, where nearby the other data resources were used and Statistics department data, it is a trend that in country's labour market more attractive workplaces are for professions with higher education groups. The relative weight of occupied posts among professionals were higher than job vacancies (comparable indicator values in 2007 were respectively 24.5 and 16.4 percent, in 2010 - 28 and 25 percent, in 2013 - 30.7 and 24.3 percent). Even more significant was the legislators, senior public officials, enterprises, institutions, organizations and other leaders of the indicators discrepancy (2008 amounted to 5.5 percentage points, 2010 - 4.4 percentage points). It can be argued that people with higher education professions groups occupied posts relative weight is relatively higher than job vacancies. Reverse situation is typical for working-class groups -occupied posts relative weight is relatively lower than the number of job vacancies. Particularly significant qualified workers, and craft and related trades workers occupied posts and job vacancies weighting difference in 2007 (to as much as 16.2
percentage points). The mention indicator significantly decreased in 2013 (till 5.5 percent). It can be assumed that the significantly fluctuations of occupied posts and job vacancies during the short period is a temporary phenomenon.
About significant labour supply and demand discrepancies shows the author's calculation results. For example, judging by the workplace and the ratio of the number of registered unemployed, when the situation was getting better in the labour market, the fastest grow in the period of 2004-2007 was for equipment, machine operators and assemblers needs (even 70 percent). Natural that the majority of the working-class groups relative needs (including unskilled workers) was growing faster than the workers with high qualification profession groups need and legislators, public senior officials, enterprises, institutions, organizations and other leaders, it even fell down (-3.4 per cent). Despite the faster growth of the working-class demand, the biggest labour supply and demand structure discrepancies in the end of economic boom were in the qualified workers, and craft and related trades workers group. Registered vacancies of skilled workers, and craft and related trades workers group in 2007 was dedicated to three tenths, and registered unemployed -roughly one-fifth. In this group vacancies relative excess (compared with the structures of registered unemployed) to as much as 10.8 percentage points. Notable labour supply and demand differences were in equipment, machines operators, assemblers and unskilled worker groups.
Existing labour supply and demand mismatches influenced third country employment opportunities - relative shortage of workers working-class encouraged more of these professions to come to Lithuania.
The proposed salary will largely determine the vacancy filling possibilities, but the Lithuanian Labour Exchange information shows, that employers often suggest sufficiently low wages of individual workers occupational groups. This reduces the attractiveness of jobs on offer.
2008 Labour and Social Research Institute made the research of specialist needs data, one of the most important problems, which limited different sectors development was lack of specialists (most this problem indicated construction sector respondents - 44 percent.) (Daujotis et al. 2008). Other factors were also very important, but it is less related with human resources factor solving the companies problems. Response rate by the economic activities were distributed very unevenly. Skilled human resources are most needed in the construction, financial resources (investment) - the public sector. With international competition the most is facing the industry, with insufficient demand for the production - the construction sector.
The research initiated by the Ministry of Economy of Republic of Lithuania "Labour market analysis and suggestions of labour scarcity, according to the country's economic development forecasts for 2008-2015" authors notes that the demand for unskilled workers are still significant and it shows that companies are partly dependent on cheap and unskilled labour force, although dominates skilled workers, craft and related trades workers and specialists with professional training (marketable - metalworking, machinery and related trades workers, builders
installers, builders finishers, motor vehicle drivers), need. There is also a big business professionals especially managers demand.
Generalization
The research carried out by the authors showed, that employers are directly interested in the labour resources from third country use in Lithuania's labour market. While the country still felt the effects of the economic downturn, in the research participated employers identified quite a lot of different professions workers for jobs for which it would be appropriate to employ third country citizens, because in their opinion, Lithuanian educational institution does not prepare a sufficient number of qualified individual professions.
Compare a lot of employers think, that incoming to work third country citizens in their company who has professional qualification match the labour market needs.
The results of research showed, that selecting an employee from third countries, employers' priorities influence currently formed economic and cultural ties. However almost one third of employers specified that employing third country citizens their origin country is not important.
However we have to keep that in mind that in the economic crisis conditions to Lithuanian labour market got in most of these third country citizens, who in our country were re-employed. In another word, a big influence in Lithuania has already formed between third country citizens and them employed institutions. Research data confirmed this situation. So, favourable research results still does not testify, that employers need a significant increase in the number of third country citizens will be fully realized. Significant additional labour resources from third countries attraction to our companies should be limited by our relatively not attractive labour market for foreign citizens, who still did not have any work experience in Lithuania. Regarding to the current situation, it is urgent to solve the labour supply and labour demand mismatch and increase the attractiveness of job problems in our country's economy. In this way, Lithuania would be much less dependent on the import of labour resources from foreign countries. On the other hand, favorable conditions for the integration of third country presence would be enable to save at least part of the target group who would like to continue work in Lithuania.
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УДК 330.43
Pimkina N.A. 1st year master student
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Russia, Moscow Пимкина Н. А. студент магистратуры, 1 курс Финансовый Университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации
Россия, Москва
ФЕНОМЕН ГОЛЛАНДСКОЙ БОЛЕЗНИ В ЭКОНОМИКЕ ЯПОНИИ THE PHENOMENON OF DUTCH DISEASE IN JAPANESE ECONOMY Аннотация: В статье рассмотрен анализ наличия голландской болезни в Японии. На примере этой страны построена эконометрическая модель в зависимости от основного экономического показателя страны на экспорт нефти. Также проведен анализ текущей экономической ситуации в Японии. Сделаны выводы касательно негативного эффекта этого феномена.
Annotation: This paper investigates the phenomenon of Dutch disease in Japanese economy. This paper illustrates this phenomenon by constructing the econometric model, exercising an analysis and testing the model. There is conclusion and recommendations about negative effect of this phenomenon.
Ключевые слова: голландская болезнь, девальвация, курс валюты, национальная валюта
Key words: Dutch disease, devaluation, exchange rate, national currency The present paper is about the phenomenon of Dutch disease and its influence on the Japanese economy. Dutch disease is an economics term that refers to the negative consequences arising from large increases in the value of a country's
