65Лунькова Лилия Геннадьевна Lunkova Liliya Gennadievna Мельников Григорий Сергеевич Melnikov Grigory Sergeevich
Магистранты Masters
Глушко Наталья Александровна Glushko Natalia Alexandrovna
Senior lecturer
Дальневосточный федеральный университет Far Eastern Federal University
СЖИЖЕННЫЙ ПРИРОДНЫЙ ГАЗ: НАСТОЯЩЕЕ И БУДУЩЕЕ LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS: PRESENT AND FUTURE
Аннотация. В статье рассмотрено текущее состояние рынка СПГ, представлены ключевые данные об импортерах, экспортерах и производственных мощностях стран. Проведено исследование зависимости спроса и предложения, указаны факторы риска, ограничивающие внедрение новых технологических решений. В ходе работы выяснилось, что накопленная технологическая база обеспечивает постоянный рост СПГ проектов, но сопряжена рядом рисков, которые можно избежать лишь в случае индивидуальных технологических разработок применительно к особенностям в различных странах.
Ключевые слова. СПГ, плавучий СШ -завод, технология сжижения природного газа,
проект
Abstract. The article discusses the current state of the LNG market. Here one can find key data about importers, exporters, and production capacities of countries. A study of the interdependence of demand and supply was carried out, risk factors limiting the introduction of new technological solutions were presented as well. The research revealed that the accumulated technological base ensures the constant growth of LNG projects, but is fraught with a number of risks that can be avoided only in the case of individual technological developments in relation to the peculiarities in different countries.
Key words. LNG, FLNG, natural gas liquefaction technology, project
УДК 620.262
Introduction
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is one of the most promising energy sources. This is one of the most actively developing areas in the energy sector. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), humanity annually consumes over 3 trillion m3 of gas, and the demand for it may grow to 4.5 trillion by 2035 [1].
At the end of the 1st quarter of 2020, world production amounted to 355 million tons, which is 13% higher than the previous year. Table 1 shows the projects implemented during 2019 [2, p.11].
Table 1. Projects implemented during 2019 [2]
Country Project Capacity, million tons per year LNG Operator Technology
USA Sabine Pass (5) 4,5 Cheniere Energy Conoco-Phillips Optimmized Cascade
Corpus Christi (1) 4,5
Corpus Christi (2) 4,5
Russia Yamal-LNG (3) 5,5 Novatek, Total, CNPC AP-C3MR
USA Freeport LNG (1) 5,1 Freeport LNG, Zachry Hastings u AP.
Australia Ichthys LNG (12) 8,9 Inpex, Total, CPC, Tokyo Gas u gp.
Argentina Tango FLNG 0,5 Exmar Black and Veatch (PRICO)
USA Elba Island (1-3) 0,75 Southern LNG, Kinder Morgan Shell MMLS
Russia Vysotsk LNG (1) 0,66 Novatek, Gazprombank Air Liquide Smart
The pressing issue today is the task of covering the growing demand with LNG production.
As an example, let's consider the increase in gas supplies to the USA. This is due not only to the introduction of new LNG production facilities, which were commissioned in 2017, but also to cope with its domestic demand. Gas consumption in the USA increased by 78 billion cubic meters in 2018 is about the same as the country consumed over the previous 6 years. This is largely driven by the growing
II Международная научно-практическая конференция demand for space heating/cooling and electricity (both directly and indirectly). The expansion of gas consumption in the USA energy sector was further accelerated by the decommissioning of nearly 15 gigawatts of coal-fired power plants in 2017 [3, p.6].
The United States is a prime example of a switch to gas, with gas primarily in the form of LNG. It is not only an alternative for domestic and industrial needs, but also a relatively cheap, environmentally friendly and safe type of fuel for vehicles and, especially, ships [4].
LNG consumption prospects
At the end of 2019, two exporting countries covered more than 40% of the global demand for LNG. They are Qatar and Australia (Fig. 1).
■ Ausdilli , 75,4. 214
■ Russia , 19.3, H'Hi
■ Nigeria , 20.В,
■ Trinidad & Tobago , 1i5 , 4%
■ Огпгп, ID 3, 34
■ Brunei,6-4,
■ NtKway, 4.7 r Ш Peru, 3.B , Itfc
■ Equjtoriiil Guinea. i.H I %
■ fi^enhna ,0.1 , 0Щ
Fig. 1. 2019 LNG Exports and Market Share by Market [2]
Previously, Qatar was considered the absolute leader, but due to a number of large-scale projects introduced in Australia (Fig. 2), their indicators became almost equal [2, p.35].
At the end of 2019, the countries of the Asia-Pacific region (APR) also remain in the rating of the leading importing countries, but three of them account for 50% of LNG consumption (Japan, China and South Korea) [2, p.36].
84
61
9
10
Л 9
17 17
2015 2016
Prelude FLNG [4] I Ichthys Wheatstone
16 16 16
2018
2019
2017
APING ■ QCLNG
Gorgon ■ Pluto LNG (5)
GLNG ■ Darwin (4)
■ North West Shelf
Fig. 2. Dynamics of the capacity of Australian LNG plants at the end of the year, million tons [5]
LNG imports are growing every year, which indicates an increase in the demand and value of LNG in the fuel and energy complex. This trend requires the introduction of new plants and/or an expansion of the capacity of existing ones.
The total planned production capacity is over 900 million tons. The diagram (Fig. 3) shows the distribution of LNG producing countries and their capacities. For the first time, at the end of 2019, Australia overtook Qatar, which for a very long time and firmly held the leading position in the production and export of LNG. This is a truly significant event [5, p.38].
Russia occupies the 5th line in this rating: exports are carried out both to Europe and to the APR countries.
Earlier, there was no real alternative to Russian gas on the European market. The situation changed in 2018. This is due to the opening of a gas pipeline to Europe by Azerbaijan. This project was supported by the USA and UK governments. The Southern Gas Corridor has made it possible to improve energy security in Europe and diversify sources and routes of supply [6].
Liquefaction Capacity, MTPA 1 1 1 1 86,6
77,1
46,6
(O n
ti a 30,5
26,8 26,5
e p О 25,5 22,2 —
AUSTRALIA QATAR USA MALAYSIA RUSSIA INDONESIAALGERIA NIGERIA
Fig. 3. Global operational liquefaction capacity by market
LNG production potential
LNG projects are subject to risks. One of the main is the risk of imposing new sanctions and, as a result, the lack of imported equipment of a specified quality for technological lines. Today, foreign companies are among the shareholders of Russian LNG projects. The companies cooperate to work together and to develop deposits by introducing imported technologies which can be supplied to Russia in the event of threats of EU or USA sanctions [7].
This leads to another limiting factor - the lack of technologies for liquefying natural gas. It is worth noting that this is no longer such a great problem compared to the past decade. Technological solutions are optimized based on the accumulated experience, therefore, the energy efficiency of production lines increases every year. Fig. 4 shows the distribution of technology applications with a perspective until 2024.
It can be seen from the diagram that the most popular processes will remain the optimized C3MR and Cascade processes.
Despite the fact that production capacities are growing, technologies which are fundamentally different from the existing ones have not yet been introduced.
Nevertheless, the countries are actively introducing optimized technological solutions not only on land, but also in a number of offshore projects [8, p.41]. Today, five floating LNG plants are already in operation and seventeen are under construction.
МТРА
вж
23%
22% 18% □ 20%
12% 10%
41% l 1 1 ■ 1 38%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
• AP-C3MR • AP-X • AP-C3MR/SplitMR • APC-Other
• COP Opt. Cascade % Linde MFC Shell Proprietary 0 Other
Fig. 4. The share of gas liquefaction processes and the prospects for growth in use [2]
Offshore projects have their own characteristics: the weight of the installations and the area occupied by them must be minimized. This complicates the implementation of some energy efficient technologies.
Currently, simple cycles such as SMR (PRICO) or simplified AP-X are used, developed by Black&Veatch and Air Products, respectively. The largest Australian project, Prelude FLNG, uses Shell DMR technology (Fig. 5), which is at the heart of the Russian Sakhalin II project.
Fig. 5. Shell DMR technology
II Международная научно-практическая конференция
Conclusion
Obviously, LNG is a growing trend and the future belongs to it. LNG markets are capacious and have great prospects. Countries need to invest in the development of new technologies to be independent from foreign suppliers and eliminate sanctions risks. In addition, the optimization of technological processes will make it possible to reduce the cost of the LNG production process, which will contribute to an increase in consumption due to its low cost.
References:
1. Zhagfarov F.G., Karpov A.B., Grigorieva N.A. Innovative technologies in the preparation of natural gas in projects for the production of liquefied natural gas // Oil & Gas Technologies. - 2017. - T. 113. - No. 6.
2. IGU World LNG Report 2020. - 2020.
3. BP statistical review of world energy // BP Statistical Review. - 2019. - No. 68. - p. 62.
4.Global N. G. V. Natural Gas Vehicle Knowledge Base: "Natural gas vehicle statistics", 2018, New Zealand. - 2018.
5. Australian LNG. Corporate magazine of PJSC Gazprom - 2019. - No. 10 - pp.
37-39
6. Azerbaijan opened a gas pipeline to Europe. [Electronic resource]. Access mode: https://lenta.ru/news/2018/05/29/az_gas/ (Accessed: 10.11.20)
7. Babich S.V., Bulaeva M.M. Russian liquefied natural gas and Russian pipeline gas in the European market: competition or synergy. The Eurasian Scientific Journal- 2019. - Т. 11. - №. 6.
8. Songhurst B. Floating Liquefaction (FLNG): Potential for Wider Deployment. - Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 2016.
© L.G. Lunkova, G.S. Melnikov, N.A. Glushko, 2020
