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future taking into account the peculiarities of that era, they may be among the losers. Knowledge of the features of this era and awareness of its position in it will help us influence the formation of the desired international system in the future. The most important factors in this formation are the preservation of world values and discourse. Iran and the Russian Federation play a large role in shaping the desired system of international order. In order to make the best use of the cultural potential of the countries of the region, as well as to bring relations and cultural cooperation to a higher level, it is necessary that this promotes the culture of the region. Thanks to the achieved increase in the level of culture in various areas, as well as the resultant force of its influence in the region, individual countries will contribute to the development of cultural potential.
In conclusion, the author notes that common threats, as well as the need to optimize cooperation, require a thorough review and restructuring of the cultural relations between the two countries.
Author of the abstract - Natalia Ginesina
AZIZ NIYAZI. SYRIA: SOCIAL AND ECOLOGICAL CHANGES THE DAY BEFORE WAR // The article was written for the bulletin "Russia and the Moslem World."
DOI: 10.31249/rmw/2019.03.05
Keywords: Syria, ecology, climate changes, migration, water-land resources, conflicts, industrialization, environmental contamination, agriculture.
Aziz Niyazi,
PhD(History), Senior Research Associate,
Center for Central Asian, Caucasian and Volga-Urals Studies,
Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS
Abstract. In the article there is data on socio-eco-economic crisis escalation in Syria during its accelerated industrial
development. There are considered caused by it various levels and points of conflictogenity which aggravated during severe droughts of 2006-2008.
At the turn of the 20-21st centuries crescent interrelation between climate change, social and ecological shifts and violent conflicts began to be observed. In the 70-90s of the past century global climatic metamorphoses just gained strength and were not felt so obviously as in the 2000s. Nevertheless, many conflicts of that time were developing against the background of acceleration of social and ecological crises connected with the accelerated industrialization first of all of certain states of the East, including Syria. Its main natural resource is fertile ground. Only a third of the territory of the country is suitable for agriculture and stable harvests are reaped only from the irrigated areas. Cereals are seeded mainly on a boghara and their harvests in many respects depend on weather conditions, and therefore differ in instability. Mainly mountain, steppe, semidesertic or desert landscapes with limited water resources and deficiency of suitable watering lands are peculiar to Syria. During industrialization such easily vulnerable climatic conditions were often ignored.
During the period of active industrialization of the Syrian Arab Republic emphasis was put on development of the oil, oil-refining, chemical, electrical power, gas, textile and food industries. Extraction of phosphate mining with the increased concentration of chlorine, ironstone, asphalt, mineral salt, gravel, gypsum, marble increased. From the late 1960s large objects of heavy and light industry were under construction and commissioning. Such enterprises posed the greatest threat to fragile local ecosystems. Far from always it was considered their place in the system of future internal economic communications and increased risk to the territories relating to zones of low potential of self-clarification of arid soils, water sources and atmosphere. Planning of their placement were far from great, the principles of the scientific approach implicating consideration of not only economic, but also
ecological factors were often broken. At the same time the number of the medium-sized and small factory enterprises polluting emissions of which in total inflicted casualties to nature increased. The majority of large, average and small production objects used faulty technologies, deteriorated equipment, usually there were no waste treatment facilities or because of economy inefficient defensive expenditures systems were installed.
Noticeable accelerated rates of industrial production impact on the environment began to be noted in the mid 1970-80s with expending capacities of oil refinery enterprises, plants on production of cement, fertilizers, plastic, construction materials and a number of other products. Many of them used lagging technologies with a large number of waste without their recycling. Ecologists noted that "considering very low qualification of workers and ETW at many large and highly toxic enterprises of the Syrian industry and infrastructure, extreme runout of the installed equipment or its elements because of delays with their deliveries, violations in technological modes take form of chronic ones that reduces the effect of purification of production wastes by means of corresponding constructions. Besides, a considerable part of the enterprises which were under construction when pollution did not become a national problem yet was accepted for operation without cleansing systems"1.
Placement of large industrial enterprises and infrastructure objects under the influence of spontaneous unjustified decisions led to their uneven concentration on the territory of the country. Many of them were built in the coastal fertile and densely populated western part of Syria, generally on the banks of rivers el-Asya (Oront) and Barada on random places. Oil refining, petrochemistry plants, plants of fertilizers and cement production in Homs, Baniyas and Tartus inflicted essential damage to the environment and health of local citizens. Pivot to energy-consuming technical industries aligned with construction of large power plants serving them. Work of powerful thermal power plants and cogeneration station was followed by air pollution
and withdrawal from circulation of considerable water resources. In the areas of placement of industrial complexes maximum permitted concentration of air pollution by toxic substances was repeatedly exceeded. Together with fast growing withdrawal of water for production and utility needs dumping of river and other waters increased, underground sources became soiled, deficiency of pure water started to be felt seriously2. Construction of bunds, including a large dam et-Tabka on the main waterbearing artery of the country Euphrates did not help. Its reservoir was not filled according to the predicted calculations. Euphrates shallowed because of droughts, intensive development of the adjoining lands and the reduced runoff from the territory of Turkey owing to construction of a large bund and the increasing withdrawal of water for irrigating systems of Turkish agriculture there.
As a result of uncontrollable dumping of the crude industrial and household wastes especially great damage was inflicted to the rivers of Assi, Barad, Lakes Katin and Es-Cyn near which there was a set of industrial objects and a considerable part of the population of Syria concentrated. Chemical compounds, technical oils, colorants, organic elements, inorganic salts entered them from large and other production objects. Through sewerage systems organic and inorganic waste without cleaning were dumped wholesale into water. The contribution to pollution of reservoirs was made also by large farms. Animal manure got to water, high toxic harsh chemicals and fertilizers from fields were washed away. As a result, in certain rivers and lakes it was recorded high concentration of chlorine, phosphorus, chemically active alkali, nitrogen, magnesium and other toxic substances.
Water contamination inflicted extensive damage to residents of cities and towns. Sanitary regulations of drinking water consumption were broken, the threat of diseases was increasing. In some water sources water became undrinkable. Besides, in great numbers it was used for irrigation, but over time began to pose threat to agriculture. Watering with crude waters led to
accumulation of injurious substances in the soil, carriers of diseases and their transfer on plants. Vegetable food crops are especially sensitive to it. Their productivity considerably decreases in process of growth of the presence of organic impurity in water. Use of crude waters led also to agglomeration, hardening and salinization of soils.
Hence there were cases when peasants began to reduce consumption of river and lake water for irrigation of their farmlands grew or in general held back from it, preferring to drill boreholes for drawing of water from underground sources. However various contaminants got into them1. More and more water from artesian boreholes was used by industrial enterprises and community services. As a result, underground water layers were quickly exhausted, especially in the Province of Damascus. Ground water was quickly reduced also in the zone of intensive land conversion in the northeast of the country where moreover Euphrates shallowed quickly. Improvement of land, adjoining the Euphratean dam lake, did not reach the target as soils were rich in plaster, were washed away and turned salty because of imperfection and deterioration of irrigational systems. Exhaustion of lands was aggravated with use of extremely harmful cheap toxic chemicals in order to boost productivity. Besides huge steppe territories turned into deserts because of extensive use of pastures. Impacts on them 3 times exceeded a limit above which the landscape degeneration is probable.
At the beginning of 2000s Syria seriously faced a problem of water scarcity, the fertility of soils began to be exhausted, and agriculture fell into decay. A half of occupied population of the country worked in agriculture, but conditions changed to the worst, peasants, and bankrupt farmers moved with their families to cities. Migration of farmers and cattle-farmers to the cities happened throughout all of time of diversification of the Syrian economy in the course of transformation of the country from agrarian in agrarian-industrial one. In 1991 in agriculture there were about 24% all occupied people whereas in 1963 this
indicator exceeded 60%. This resettlement was related first of all with the objective economic reasons (development of industry, services sector, emergence of new workspaces) but in the 2000s out migration of the population from villages to cities and large regional centers gained ecological character. Natural population increase in rural areas resulted in agrarian overpopulation. At the same time, as a rule, increase in number of family members was not followed by widening of an allotment therefore the labor productivity of occupied members in family economy decreased, the periods of forced unemployment were extended, the dependence on earnings for hire amplified and respectively income shrank. All this was aggravated with reduction of water and land resources. Ruralmout migration to the cities coincided with arrival in Syria in the period from 2003 to 2007 of about 1.5 million Iraqi refugees who settled mainly in Damascus, Aleppo, Latakia, Homs and also a number of cities of the southern region of the country. Unemployment rate in the country in 2005 reached 20% of able-bodied citizens, including about 30% among youth. There was a notable tension in labor and habitation markets, shortage of food, quality and availability of public services decreased.
The situation was challenging and critically became aggravated with severe droughts. Droughts of medium intensity were observed in Syria since 1998, but in 2006-2008 they were very intensive. The winter of 2007-2008 was especially droughty. Such phenomenon was never observed since meteorological observations in 1931 began. Large-scale death of crops and the cattle followed, 1.5 million villagers directed to cities in search for means of existence3. Collapse of an agricultural system of SAR led to the fact that in 2008 production of the most part of small-scale and average farms was decreased close to zero, in many cases completely, and cattle stock was almost lost. Social guarantees were not provided to such farmers and peasants, for the majority of them resettlement to cities became the only rescue. The share of the villagers moving with whole
communities and also Iraqi refugees in the population of these cities reached 20 percent, their houses did not meet elementary standards, unemployment grew quickly among them, many did not receive any aid from the state, or amount of this aid was minimum. The number of the poor quickly increased. As a result, there were frequent skirmishes between local population and newcomers, revolts broke out in a number of communities4. In the agricultural Province of Daraa suffered from a drought and the country which accepted thousands of immigrants from the
East the conflict which developed into a large revolt broke out.
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Certainly, there is a variety of reasons for war in Syria. It is necessary to consider geopolitical and internal political factors, long-term economic isolation of the country, huge military expenses, opposition of Syria and Israel. Internal tension was caused by price turmoil in the international food market in 20072008 and 2011, which provoked disorders called "The Arab spring." The war in Iraq had an impact on Syrian economy. Suspense in supply of cheap Iraqi oil together with exhaustion of Syrian birthplace led to budget reduction.
However the time bomb was planted by own efforts. Explosive material was collected gradually. Undoubtedly, economic modernization of the country raised the standard of living of Syrians, but at the same time there were new difficulties in maintenance of adequate social-and-ecological balance. In the 1990s -the middle of 2000s load-bearing capacity of ecosystems of Syria was significantly exceeded. Under the influence of forced industrial modernization in the country deep socio-eco-economic crisis was brewing which began to undermine the basis of further growth. Economic growth rate went behind increase in population, social development chronically lagged behind the adopted standards. And demographic pressure was huge. If in 1975 7.5 million people lived in Syria, then in 2011 already 22.5 million did5.
Unstable social-and-ecological and economic system could remain for a long time. Perhaps the time bomb planted by illiterate managing could be defused over time. But conflictogenity level rose sharply as a result of extreme climatic jumps. The Syrian land use system was not capable to react to serious changes of ecological and climatic factors. On the eve of war fight for resources as strategic, and the most elementary, necessary for everyday life escalated. Life became difficult in not only material, but also in spiritual and psychological plan. Destructive processes in the nature and society caused higher level of social aggression. Against the background of deepened social-and-ecological degradation and numerous global, regional and local contradictions which led to a war synchronized and added up each other. The humanitarian loss from it is huge6.
The example of Syria shows that nowadays the ecology begins to intertwine in a single knot with policy issues, economic strategy, interethnic and sociocultural relations and this interaction if there is no common harmony, is capable to generate serious conflictogenic potential.
References
Syrian ecological problems.
https://studbooks.net/1226192/ekologiya/ekologicheskie_problemy_sirii (Access data: 12.04.2019). Unfortunately, there is no author of this detailed highly professional material given in an abstract form.
As a result of burning of local oil grades containing 4-5% of impurity of sulphur it was observed dangerous increased air pollution by sulphur oxide over the residential quarters and areas of agricultural crops located near thermal power plant (Baniyas, Mharde and Kattyna). During one day 200 tons of dioxide of sulphur about 10% of which, mixing up with moisture, formed sulfuric acid were dispersed to the atmosphere over Homs. Tons of volatile compounds got into air through pipes of enterprises, especially local plant of fertilizers which threw out a huge number of the waste, formed by production of urea, phosphates and nitrate of ammonium. At oil refinery plant of Homs 600-700 tons of phenol were annually burned in which up to 5% of its weight sulfur made. As a result about 24.5 thousand cu m of waste in the form of oxide of calcium, aluminum, iron were produced. The plants
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on production of fertilizers -urea, nitrate of ammonium and threefold superphosphate emitted compounds of sal ammoniac and nitrogen. Situation was aggravated with intrusion into the atmosphere of large amounts of carbon monoxide during work of boiler houses, motor vehicle emission, mass of small workshops, etc. Besides the plant on production of phosphoric fertilizers in Homs delivered into a disposal area 900 thousand tons of a dry phosphite a year. This waste pour off near the city, poisoning water of el-Asya, lake Kattyna and underground sources. In the country there were used highly toxic insecticides which were transferred by air at an immense distances, infecting the territory and causing numerous diseases including cancer. The Toll of War. The Economic and Social Consequences of the Conflict in Syria. The World Bank. 2017. P. 13.
Situation in the field of food security and food in the world - 2017. Improving stability to external influences for providing the world and food security. FAO, IF AD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2017. P. 57. See: Kelley P., Mohtadi S., Cane M.A., Seager R, Kushnir Y. Climate Change in the Fertile Crescent and Implications of the Recent Syrian Drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America, 112(11): 3241-3246. 2015; Ali M. Years of Drought: a Report on the Effects of Drought on the Syrian Peninsula. Beirut, Heinrich Boll-Stiftung. 2010.
Rudenko L.N. Economic modernization in Arab countries (the end of 20 -the beginning of 21 century). Kazan, 2017. P.210.
Niyazi A.Sh. Syria: humanitarian war losses // Russia and Moslem world: Scientific Information bulleting / RAS ISISS. Centre of scientific-information studies of global and regional problems. - Moscow, 2019. - № 2. P.58-62.
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RUSLAN SULEIMANOV. MAIN ACTORS IN THE FORMATION OF TURKEY'S FOREIGN POLICY: THE ARMY VS MFA // The article was written for the bulletin "Russia and the Moslem World."
DOI: 10.31249/rmw/2019.03.06
Keywords: Turkey, army, Foreign Ministry, President, foreign policy.
Ruslan Suleimanov,
Postgraduate Student, Lomonosov Moscow State University
Abstract. the author examines the role and place of the army and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in formation of Turkey's
