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9
UDC 730.15
STRUCTURING THREATS IN THE TECHNOLOGICAL COMPANIES AND THE OPPOSITION ON THE BASIS OF BLAKEAN TECHNOLOGIES
Elena V. KONSTANTINOVA
LLC PSK Stroyspetsservice Yaroslavl, Russia [email protected]
Abstract
On the basis of the analysis of chemical safety in the developed countries of the world and the existing methods of forecasting the consequences of spill (release) of hazardous chemicals in the event of accidents at chemically hazardous facilities, a method of forecasting the consequences of possible accidents in the implementation of measures to eliminate accidents and their consequences. The method is intended for use by civil protection units and other units for the elimination of accidents at chemically hazardous facilities.
Keywords: chemically dangerous object, hazardous chemicals, accident, prediction of consequences, methods.
Ensuring chemical safety, where there is a huge man-made load on the environment and humans, causes a big problem for the safe operation of chemically hazardous facilities at the company's facilities (hereinafter - HNO). Today operates 931 object, which is stored or used in production activities 308,07 thousand tons of hazardous chemicals, including a 4.08 thousand tons of chlorine, 202,66 thousand tons of ammonia and 101.33 tons of other dangerous chemicals. The analysis of the existing methodological approaches to solving the problem of risk assessment of CNO showed that despite significant scientific achievements in this area, today there is no clearly formulated and effective comprehensive methodology for assessing the risk and risk of accidents on CNO, so the issue of developing such a methodology is relevant and timely [4, p. 182].
Analysis of the current methodology for predicting the consequences of spillage (release) of hazardous chemicals and in the event of an accident on HNO showed that despite the fact that the methodological approach used in this technique is important and useful, the existing methodology requires a significant revision of compliance with the current legislation, improvement and addition in accordance with modern requirements and existing regulations, as well as taking into account the latest methodological developments and mechanisms in the field of forecasting [3, p. 335].
The purpose of the study - development of modern methods of predicting the effects of wylewa (emission) of hazardous chemicals in case of accidents in XNO (further - the Technique) that would allow a long-term and emergency forecasting the extent of pollution of hazardous chemicals in the environment. The main tasks were to analyze the existing world achievements in the field of forecasting the scale and consequences of accidents on HNO, synthesis of the best approaches of such forecasting and development of the project of modern methodology together with reference materials. Analytical methods and the method of system analysis were used in the research [1, p. 5].
The results of the study and their discussion. The developed methodology was based on the "Methodology for predicting the consequences of the spill (release) of hazardous chemicals in accidents at industrial facilities and oil and gas complexes", which was approved by the order of the Ministry of emergency situations. Also, some provisions of the "Methodology for determining risks and acceptable levels for declaring the safety of high-risk facilities" approved by the order of the Ministry of labor were taken into account. During the preparation of the new Technique, well-known formulas were used, including the Matsak formula with the clayperon-Clausius equation. The new Methodology for predicting the consequences of spillage (release) of hazardous chemicals due to accidents increased the number of hazardous chemicals to 36 compounds. Also, this Technique takes into account the landscape and climatic conditions in the center of the accident [2, p. 302].
In General, the structure of the Methodology consists of the following sections:
- application;
- terms and definitions of concepts;
- general provision;
- prediction of area-wide chemical contamination;
- prediction of the duration of chemical contamination;
- determination of the degree of danger of chemical pollution;
- classification of administrative-territorial units and objects of economic activity according to the degree of chemical hazard;
- applications.
The technique allows to carry out long-term (operational) and emergency forecasting of pollution scales in case of accident with leakage (emission) of dangerous chemicals from technological capacities on HNO, automobile, river, railway and pipeline transport. Also, the Method can be used for calculations of the extent of contamination in case of accidents in Maritime transport, in the case that the cloud NHR can get the coastal zone, where the resident population. It applies to hazardous chemicals that, in the event of an accident, pass into the environment in gaseous, vapor and aerosol aggregate States with the formation of a primary and/or secondary cloud and does not apply to hazardous chemicals that do not pass into a gaseous, vapor or aerosol state at ambient temperature and atmospheric pressure [5, p. 197].
The General provisions set out the principles of assessment of the chemical situation, providing for the determination of the scale of the accident, the calculation of the approach time of the cloud of hazardous chemical substances to settlements; forecasting the possible number and structure of affected persons and the classification of administrative-territorial units and objects of economic activity according to the degree of chemical danger. At the same time, the following initial data are taken to predict the scale of the chemical pollution zone and the possible total losses of the population in the source of pollution:
- the total amount of hazardous chemical at the facility and the data on the placement of their stocks in process tanks;
- the amount of dangerous chemical that got into the atmosphere;
- the nature of the outpouring on the surface ("free", "in the pallet" or "in the collapse»);
- the height of the drip tray or bunding;
- meteorological conditions: air temperature, wind speed at an altitude of 1-10 m, the degree of vertical stability of the air;
- average population density in the city and the countryside.
In the case of long-term forecasting in the Methodology it is recommended to take:
- the amount of hazardous chemical that resulted in: - the maximum volume of a single container, and for objects located in hazardous areas (for a special period and for seismic areas, etc.) - the total amount of hazardous chemical;
- for railway stations through which dangerous chemical is transported, an accident with a spillage of 60 tons of the most dangerous substance that is transported is considered;
- meteorological conditions under which the area of the zone of possible chemical pollution will be the greatest: the degree of vertical stability of the air - inversion; air velocity - 1 m/s; air temperature - 20 °C.
For emergency forecasting the extent of pollution after an accident has applied the well-known formula of Macak, including clayperon equation-Clausius, which used the following inputs:
- amount of substance spilled;
- real weather conditions.
The center of the chemical pollution zone is determined by the place of the accident. The outer limits of chemical contamination is determined by the value of the threshold toxodon (PCt5o) in the case of inhalation of hazardous chemical substances on the human body.
The depth of the chemical contamination zone is determined depending on the physical and chemical properties of the hazardous chemical and aggregate:
- for gases that are stored or transported in a liquefied state - separately by primary and secondary clouds of hazardous chemical;
- for gases that are stored or transported under pressure - only on the primary cloud of a hazardous chemical;
- for hazardous chemicals that are stored or transported in a liquid state, and whose boiling point is higher than the ambient temperature - only on the secondary clouds of the hazardous chemical.
The following assumptions are also used in the Methodology:
- in the event of an accident, the container with the hazardous chemical is completely destroyed;
- the amount of hazardous chemical released (Q) corresponds to the filling standard of the container;
- in case of accident at the gas pipeline adopted pipeline - "guillotine" with a maximum flow rate with maximum duration of emission, and the number of hazardous chemicals, resulted in maximum quantity of hazardous chemicals present in the pipeline between the automatic counters;
- topographical features of the area, as well as its relief, open or closed to the closed terrain include large cities, mountains, forest aged 30 years or more);
- the maximum time of stay of people in the area of chemical pollution and the duration of preservation of meteorological conditions unchanged is 4 hours. After this time, the forecast situation is clarified.
The main indicators characterizing the scale of the chemical pollution zone are accepted:
- the radius of the area of the accident RA (km);
- depth of GI (km) and area of Sl (km ) of propagation of the primary cloud of a hazardous chemical;
- depth of G2 (km) and area of 52(km ) of the secondary chemical cloud.
The depth distribution of the primary cloud of hazardous chemicals (GTI) on level ground at standard temperature conditions, with a limit threshold toxodon PCt50 for certain hazardous chemicals are given in table 1. The depth value of the primary hazardous chemical cloud (GT1) is calculated for some typical storage volumes of hazardous chemicals, taking into account their complete depressurization and leakage of hazardous chemicals into the pallet (sinking), vertical air stability and wind speed at an altitude of 110 m.
The depth of distribution of the primary cloud of hazardous chemicals G1 (km), taking into account meteorological and topographic conditions, the influence of air temperature on the amount of hazardous chemicals passing into the primary cloud, is determined by the formula 1:
GI = GTG Ktr Km - UK, (1)
where: G77 - table value of the depth of distribution of the primary cloud of hazardous chemicals on flat terrain under standard external temperature conditions, km;
Kt1 is a correction factor that takes into account the effect of air temperature;
Km - the coefficient of influence of the terrain;
KK - coefficient of proportionality, taking into account the divergence of the mass of hazardous chemical substances with the typical volume of the container. To determine it, a coefficient of excess is calculated, which is the ratio of a given amount of hazardous chemicals Q3 (ton) to the nearest value of the standard capacity Qm (ton).
The depth distribution of the secondary cloud of hazardous chemicals on flat terrain under standard temperature conditions, with a limit threshold toxodon PCt50 for some hazardous chemicals. The distribution depth of the SECONDARY NHR cloud (GT2) is calculated for some typical storage volumes of hazardous chemicals, taking into account the vertical stability of the air.
The depth of the secondary cloud of hazardous chemicals G2 (km), taking into account meteorological and topographic conditions, the influence of air temperature on the amount of HCR that passes into the secondary cloud, is determined by the formula 2:
P2 = GT2 • Kt2 -km UK, (2)
where: GT2 - table value of depth of distribution of a secondary cloud of hazardous chemicals on the flat terrain at standard external temperature conditions, km;
Kt2 - correction factor taking into account the influence of air temperature;
Km - the coefficient of influence of the terrain;
KK - coefficient of proportionality, taking into account the divergence of the mass of hazardous chemical substances with the typical volume of the container. The determination of the QC coefficient is similar to the case of the primary cloud of hazardous chemicals.
The area of the accident is limited by the radius RA (km), which determines the area of a circle within which are formed the properties of a cloud of hazardous chemical substances the largest. The radius of the accident area depends on the type of hazardous chemical and the conditions of its storage (use). During the calculation, the RA value is assumed to be:
- for liquefied gases and liquid hazardous chemicals with low boiling point, which are stored in process tanks up to 100 t - 0.5 km, in other cases - 1 km;
- for liquid hazardous chemicals with a high boiling point in case of destruction of technological capacities up to 100 t - 0,2-0,3 km, in other cases - 0,5 km.
In case of fire, it is recommended to increase the radius of the accident area by 1.5 - 2 times, due to the possibility of releasing more dangerous chemical substances, as well as its dispersion due to the explosion.
The prediction of the duration of chemical contamination takes into account the time during which there is a risk of human injury in the absence of personal protective equipment. The main indicators characterizing the duration of chemical pollution are:
- the time of evaporation of hazardous chemicals from the surface of the spill;
- time of approach of the polluted air to object.
The main indicator characterizing the degree of danger of chemical pollution is the number of people in the lesion. The number of people affected among the production personnel of the facility where the accident occurred and the population living near the facility is determined on the basis of the number of people in the affected area and their protection from the action of a dangerous chemical.
The number of people caught in the lesion is calculated by summing up the number of production personnel (population) located on separate production sites (in residential areas, settlements) exposed to a dangerous chemical substance, or by multiplying the average density of production personnel (population) located on the territory of the object (settlement) on the area of the infected territory.
The Methodology provides criteria for the classification of administrative-territorial units and objects of economic activity according to the degree of chemical hazard. The criteria for the classification of territories and objects in relation to their chemical hazard the number of people and the size of the area that can fall into the zone of possible chemical pollution in the event of an accident at a chemically hazardous facility (table. 1).
Table 1 - classification Criteria for administrative-territorial units and chemically hazardous facilities
(except Railways)
Numerical value of the
The name of the object is classified Classification criterion Unit criterion used for classification
Degree of chemical hazard
1 II III IV
Chemically hazardous object The number of people entering the predicted area of chemical pollution in the event of an accident at a chemically hazardous facility thousand people. > 3,0 0.33.0 0.10.3 <0.1
Chemically hazardous administrative-territorial unit Share of the territory falling into the zone of possible chemical pollution in the event of an accident at chemically hazardous facilities % <50 3050 1030 <10
The analysis of the existing methodological approaches to solving the problem of assessing the danger of chemically hazardous facilities of oil companies showed that despite significant scientific achievements in this area, today there is no clearly formulated and effective comprehensive methodology for
assessing the danger, and therefore the risk of accidents at chemically hazardous facilities, so the question of developing such a methodological framework is an urgent task.
Analytical studies and systematic analysis of existing approaches to forecasting the consequences of the spill (release) of hazardous chemicals in the event of accidents at chemically hazardous facilities has significantly improved approaches to forecasting used in the existing methodology and in fact to develop a new Methodology for forecasting.
The developed Methodology uses classical methodological approaches to forecasting, but the new Methodology for predicting the consequences of the spill (release) of hazardous chemicals due to accidents increased their number to 36 compounds. Also, this Technique takes into account the landscape and climatic conditions in the center of the accident. This eliminates most of the subjective factors and significantly increases the correctness of the forecast.
For modern forecasting of probability of occurrence and determination of severity of consequences of accident on HNO and increase of correctness of such forecasts, and also for operational acceptance of rational administrative decisions, during accident and elimination of its consequences, it is necessary to unite available information resources, or to create the separate database in which it is expedient to include the state register of HNO, the database of accidents and emergency situations on HNO, the state register and the database of documents of insurance Fund of documentation concerning HNO in electronic form, database of plans of localization and liquidation of accidents at XNO and others.
References
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