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A specific feature of both them is the big role of clans played in their countries, eastern mentality, popular support, personification, and absence of a successor. There are expectations connected with the complete idealization of the present leader, or with the diametrically opposed view (for example, expectations for the coming of Islamists existing in the Ferghana Valley). Since there are no mechanisms of ensuring succession, it is necessary to note the presence of conflicts, and in future, the possibility of a split on the basis of ethno-confessional features.
The common feature of both presidents is their political psychology and different political orientation. Nursultan Nazarbayev tries to promote Kazakhstan's status in the international arena. Hence, its presidency at the OSCE in 2010 and entry in the Customs Union, whereas Islam Karimov is mainly oriented to the domestic problems of Uzbekistan.
Written specially for Bulletin "Russia and the Moslem World".
Darya Kosmaenko,
Political analyst, Moscow State Linguistic University SPECIFIC FEATURES OF FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE POLITICAL SYSTEM OF MODERN UZBEKISTAN
After the disintegration of the U.S.S.R. the former Soviet republics, including those in Central Asia, particularly Uzbekistan, have been forced to find their own ways of socio-economic and political development. The specific features of their political systems can be explained by their history, civilizational specificities, as well as peculiar features of their political culture. Without studying the specificities of
political processes, political systems and their components it will not be possible to have an adequate idea about the political life of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Besides, the understanding of the specific features of the political culture of Oriental societies creates favorable conditions for the practical establishment of mutually advantageous relations. To date, it is especially important for the Russian Federation, whose main aim is to preserve and strengthen its presence and influence in the region.
At present, one of the elements of political life in the region is the forthcoming natural cycle of the renovation of ruling elites, which can be followed with changes in mutual relations between countries. In connection with the coming changes it is necessary to have an idea about the alignment of forces in the political arena of Uzbekistan and possible development scenarios.
The main stages of the formation of Uzbekistan's political system were the period of the Russian Empire, the Soviet period, and the period of independence.
Uzbek territories had been conquered and colonized by the Russian Empire in the 19th century. Under Russia's influence capitalist relations began to develop in Central Asian territories, which influenced the transformation of traditional society. The industries, which had been created, were oriented to processing cotton raw materials, and this laid the foundation for the future economic trend of the region.
Among the main results of the Soviet period was the creation of prerequisites for the emergence of political elites. It can be explained by the fact that the historical and geographical division of Uzbekistan into regions has led to the division of the Uzbek ethnos into clans. Up to now the clan division is of major importance and has a great influence. Three clans played a considerable role in the Soviet and postSoviet political process: Tashkent clan, Ferghana clan, and Samarkand-Jizak clan.
The Soviet structure of state and government bodies was adapted to traditional society. Nevertheless, in the Soviet period traditional community relations and reliance on traditional, informal stable institutions, such as makhalla or court of kazis, were preserved. The Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic continued to preserve the community system, collective responsibility, and respect for the elderly and the rich. Apart from that, one of the specific features of Uzbekistan's political system in the Soviet period was relative non-interference of the center in its affairs in exchange for loyalty of the local leaders.
Talking of the epoch after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, it should be noted that despite the presence of democratic institutions, power is unicentric, and there are no actors who could change the situation at present.
This is also shown by the structure of the institutional subsystem. According to its Constitution, the Republic of Uzbekistan is a sovereign democratic republic. The President is defined by the Constitution as the head of state and the head of executive power. Despite the proclaimed division of power, he remains the key figure because his powers are vast in all three spheres (legislative, executive and legal). It is indicative that the Constitution does not say anything about the impeachment procedure, which fact makes the power of the president actually absolute and immutable.
Despite the fact that the President is elected for a term of five years and can remain at this post not more than two terms in succession, Islam Karimov has been the head of state for 23 years already (since 1991). This is due to that in March 1995 the republican parliament adopted a decision of holding referendum concerning the prolongation of Karimov's presidential powers up to 2000, on the results of which he remained at the head of the country. This decade was practically not counted, and beginning from 2002 the term of
presidential powers was prolonged to seven years, thus Islam Karimov stayed at his post up to 2007, and then he was re-elected up to 2014. It is indicative that in 2011 the presidential term of office was curtailed to five years.
The legislative branch is represented by Olii Majlis (parliament) consisting of two chambers - Senate and Legislative chamber. At present there are representatives of four political parties in the chamber (according to the 2009 elections): Liberal-democratic party of Uzbekistan (53 seats), People's democratic party of Uzbekistan (32 seats), Democratic party of Uzbekistan "Millii tiklanish" (31 seats), and Social-democratic party "Adolat" (19 seats).
Despite the presence of four parliamentary parties in the main body of legislative power, a multiparty system and political pluralism in Uzbekistan is a rather relative concept. The opposition parties were not represented during the election campaign, and besides, the parties which position themselves as such are in reality illegal. On the whole, the opposition is weak and does not have any real political influence. It should be said that the emergence of some parties was a spontaneous phenomenon and conditioned, judging by experience, not by the interests of a definite section of society, but the necessity to ensure the proper conditions of holding elections required by law.
It is quite possible that by the new elections new parties may emerge, or old ones will be united. Nevertheless, there are no prerequisites for any radical changes of the system. One of the reasons is the absence of a constructive opposition. Despite a harsh character of the political regime, illegal opposition organizations do exist. Among them is the "Erk" party, which is more organized as part of the Popular movement of Uzbekistan, and "Birlik," although the latter is less active and practically does not take part in the country's political life.
There is another major component of the institutional subsystem -the mass media. Despite the proclaimed freedom, there is a semi-secret list of "prohibited subjects," such as criticism of the President and his family, human rights violations, activity of the opposition parties and movements, and the events in Andizhan. Practically the entire nongovernmental television of Uzbekistan is united in the National Association of electronic mass media. But they do not touch the banned subjects, either, and are mainly working for popular entertainment.
The functional and cultural subsystems, just as the institutional one, are among the most important elements of the political system.
Cultural subsystems are largely determined by political culture, and the latter in Central Asian countries differs a great deal from western culture. Democracy and freedom in the western sense are alien to it. A specific feature of the political culture of the Uzbek people is the so-called makhalla. This is a sort of people's gathering, a meeting having deep-going historical roots. It is precisely there that political socialization takes place and basic values are reproduced. Islam Karimov himself in his speeches and programs has repeatedly turned to makhalla as one of the major components of Uzbek society. Nevertheless, feedback to higher bodies is difficult.
It should also be noted that traditions of paternalism, inherent in any Muslim society, are still preserved in Uzbekistan. A greater part of the country's population believes that the state is a system of the just distribution of social benefits, and regards it as a guide leading the country along the road to general welfare. This can be explained by Oriental and Muslim culture, according to which state power is taken as an institution called upon to bring up people in the spirit of virtue. Apart from that, the socio-political consciousness of Uzbeks is distinguished by the feeling of organic connection with their leader.
As to the functional subsystem, which includes methods of wielding political power, attention should be turned to election campaigns and the functioning of the party system. A retrospective analysis shows that presidential election campaigns were distinguished by formal policy options (de facto, non-competitive option), which is characteristic of authoritarian regimes. This fact is confirmed by parliamentary elections in which the ruling party (National-democratic party of Uzbekistan - the successor of the Communist party of Uzbekistan, and later the Liberal-democratic party of Uzbekistan) always wins.
It should be noted that the existing parties have been created by the existing ruling power and become active, mainly, during election campaigns, which shows their loyalty to the ruling regime.
Examining separate elements of the socio-class structure, attention should be turned to the political elite, the recruitment of which is an important part of the functional subsystem. The political elite of Uzbekistan is one of the deeply closed elites of Central Asia. Its main distinctive feature is territorial or clan affiliation. Despite the attempts to weaken the clan system in Soviet time (for example, the "cotton affair"), it was not only preserved, but became even stronger. After the disintegration of the U.S.S.R. the old clan system has not disintegrated, this process is retarded in the conditions of strong presidential power and centralized regulation of the economy. According to certain estimates, clans have played a significant role in the transition process and adoption of many political decisions.
Thus, on the basis of this research a conclusion can be drawn that the political system of modern Uzbekistan is drawn to the authoritarian type of political systems, if the regime is taken as the basis of classification. This is confirmed by the facts cited here: undivided authority, absence of real opposition, and only de jure existence of democratic rights and freedoms, including the independent mass media.
Nevertheless, despite the abortive attempts to destroy this system from the outside, no prerequisites can be observed for a radical change of the regime and the entire political system. Besides, there are no strong political actors opposing the regime.
Written specially for the Bulletin "Russia and the Moslem World".
Vadim Monakhov,
Political analyst, Moscow State Linguistic University
STRUGGLE FOR WATER RESOURCES
AS DETERMINANT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
IN CENTRAL ASIA
In the early 21st century mankind came across the looming crisis of natural resources, including water resources. High growth rates of the world's population and general consumption put to doubt the prospects of the further successful development of humanity. The rapid increase of the use of water resources leads to reduction of the level of food supplies. Deterioration of the quality of water and its pollution become a real threat to life.
The timely character of this article is determined by a number of circumstances.
First, the need for a comprehensive analysis of the relations between the republics of Central Asia in the post-Soviet area concerning the problems of the distribution of trans-border water resources. Being one of the regions with vast water resources, Central Asia suffers from its incorrect and unequal use. The situation is worsened by the fact that the distribution process of hydro-resources, which used to be managed by a single center, has been stopped due to the disintegration of the U.S.S.R., and the proclamation of independence of the Central Asian republics. 56
