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Научная статья
https://doi.org/10.24412/3034-3364-2024-3-3 УДК 32
СОЗДАНИЕ МНОГОПОЛЯРНОГО МИРА КАК ВАЖНОЕ УСЛОВИЕ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ НОВОГО МИРОВОГО ПОРЯДКА
Го Цзюнье1, Северин И.В2.
1 Московский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова, краснодарское высшее военное авиационное училище летчиков
Аннотация. В данной статье рассматривается такая важная проблема современной геополитики, как устройство нового миропорядка, в котором происходит постепенная трансформация однополярной системы в многополярную. Цель статьи заключается в попытке определения характеристик и вероятных признаков многополярной (полицентрической) международной системы, процесс становления которой продолжается по сей день. В статье используются компаративный, исторический, аналитический, политологический методы исследования. Согласно результатам исследования, к трансформации современного мироустройства в пользу многополярности привели следующие тенденции: постепенная потеря лидерских позиций США, изменение баланса сил на международной арене, появление новых центров геополитического влияния. Авторы статьи делают вывод о том, что именно многополярность открывает новые возможности для гармоничного развития мирового сообщества и является главным условием формирования нового мирового порядка.
Ключевые слова: мировой порядок, однополярность, многополярность, международные отношения, гегемония.
CREATION OF A MULTIPOLAR WORLD AS AN IMPORTANT CONDITION FOR THE FORMATION OF A NEW WORLD ORDER
Guo Junye1, Igor V. Severin2
1Lomonosov Moscow State University, 2Krasnodar Higher Military Aviation School of Pilot
Abstract. This article deals with such an important problem of modern geopolitics as the creation of a new world order, in which the unipolar system is gradually transforming into a multipolar one. The aim of the article is to try to define the characteristics and probable signs of the multipolar (poly-centric) international system, the process of formation of which continues to this day. The article uses comparative, historical, analytical and political science research methods. According to the results of the study, the transformation of the modern world order in favor of multipolarity was caused by the following trends, the gradual loss of the leading position of the United States, the change in the balance of power in the international arena, the emergence of new centers of geopolitical influence. The authors of the article concludes that multipolarity opens new opportunities for harmonious development of the world community and is the main condition for the formation of a new world order.
Keywords: world order, unipolarity, multipolarity, international relations, hegemony.
Introduction.
Over the past three decades, political circles have been constantly arguing about the world order, which affect such issues as the number and status of the leading world powers, building relations between them, their role in the political and economic processes of society, in solving global and regional problems. Within the framework of this discussion, the problem of creating a multipolar world, which should replace the unipolar model formed after the Second World War, is of particular importance. American scientists believe that the world is unipolar and will remain so for a long time and consider this model of world order as an unconditional benefit for
all humankind. However, political institutions in Russia, China and other BRICS countries, as well as some experts from the European Union, have long agreed that the unipolar world has outlived itself and our planet needs a more balanced, multipolar world [3, p. 405].
Results.
The concept of multipolarity in the context of international relations is first found in the publication of American political scientists K. Deutsch and D. Singer «Multipolar Energy System and International Stability», which dates back to 1964, although these researchers do not define this term. However, if you
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delve deeply into the content of this work, then under the multipolarity of K. Deutsch and D. Singer understands a system of international relations in which several countries that have reached the highest level of economic, political, and socio-cultural development have the opportunity to influence world events [6, p. 9].
Later, the phenomenon of multipolarity was touched upon in their works by such foreign scientists as D. Kampf (article «The Emergence of a multipolar world»), Yale University historian P. Kennedy (book «The Rise and Fall of Great Powers»), geopolitician D. Walton (book «Geopolitics and Great Powers in the XXI century»), American political scientist D. Hiro (the book «After the Empire. The birth of a multipolar world») and others. However, these works do not contain an exact definition of what a multipolar world is, and the theory of its origin is not considered [6, p. 9].
In modern political science studies, the term «multi-polarity» implies the presence of several centers of power in the world that do not exceed and do not spread their own.influence on each other» [1, p. 37]. In other words, a multipolar world is «an international configuration where the world is divided into spheres of influence between great powers, and none of the existing centers of power is able to independently impose its will in someone else's sphere of influence without creating a broad coalition of forces» [1, p. 37].
Unipolarity, on the contrary, presupposes the dominance of one state in the international arena - in the military-political, economic and cultural spheres, and the vast majority of theorists emphasize the power and power potential of a single hegemon. For example, K. Lane defines a unipolar system «as a system in which one state is geopolitically dominated, since it has the capabilities to prevent the formation of a coalition directed against it» [9, p. 5]. Of particular note is the difference between the unipolar world and the global empire, since the former presupposes the existence of many formally independent states, while the latter tries to absorb, as happened when the Roman Empire existed, which became the «hegemon» of its time [8, p. 190].
During the twentieth century, the international system underwent several phases of evolutionary transformation. The scrapping of the European international system during the Second World War ended with the establishment of a bipolar model in which the United States and the USSR played the role of hegemonic states in a world partially divided into zones of preferential influence. Nevertheless, by the end of the twentieth century, symptoms of a decline in American influence began to be traced. Signs of this were considered a relative decrease in the share of US GDP in the global economy and «imperial overstrain» caused by the control of global communications and military spending. And then a number of regional states, primarily Asian ones -China, Iran, and India - went on to «rise» [7, p. 2021]. Such phenomena became an impulse that
helped accelerate the transition to a new, multipolar (multipolar, polycentric) model of international relations.
Discussion. The modern system of international relations can be considered an example of partial multipolarity, in which only one Euro-Atlantic center of power dominates, although other large states are beginning to claim the status of «poles» in various reg io nal and functional segments of the existing system.
Currently, the use of the term multipolarity implies only an indication that in the process of globalization, t h e u n d isputed centers of influence in the modern world (the United States, the European Union) have certain competitors - powerful regional states and unions of states belonging to the «second» world, or rapidly developing countries. Assessing the modern world, it is necessary to allocate a special place to the Asian region, which today is becoming one of the main centers of influence. First, we are talking about China, followed by Japan and South Korea. The fall of old geopolitical structures and the formation of new ones is accompanied by a sharp change in the balance of power and an increase in the economic potential of the Asia-Pacific region (APR). It is in this region that a special structure is being formed, which in the near future, while maintaining existing trends, can have a significant impact on the alignment of world forces, even to a certain extent change the balance of interests in the international arena.
The general trends in the evolution of individual elements of the international system primarily depend on the tactics of the Euro-Atlantic community, on its ability to find forms of response and means of influence that can restore the manageability of international economic processes and avoid further destructive consequences.
It should be noted that researchers around the world disagree about which world we live in now - a multipolar one or whether the world is still ruled by one power. Russian and Chinese political scientists believe that the multipolar world began its existence in 2010, but foreign experts insist that at present the world order is still built on the hegemony of the United States, that we are still dealing with the predominance of one power, i.e. with unipolarity [2]. Of course, even in the third decade of the XXI century, the US government has a great influence on the world system, but in our opinion, it is difficult to call this country a hegemon, since other powerful states are gradually coming to the fore. As an example, the BRICS association is a political and economic association of Brazil (B), Russia (R), India (I), China (K) (despite the economic nature of this association, «political games» are also inherent in it). November 23, 2017 The MGIMO Institute of International Studies hosted a round table organized by the BRICS Center on the topic «BRICS today: progressive development and new challenges in conditions of international instability (towards the results of China's presidency)», where the opinion was expressed that
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BRICS is not a panacea in regulating the world order, but this organization has every chance to become one of the means to create a new multipolar system [5].
Modern transformations in the world system allow us to identify the following trends in the formation of the world order: the gradual loss of US leadership positions, a change in the balance of power, the strengthening of regional groupings, the emergence of new contenders for the role of centers of power. These trends, according to Russian analysts, are the impetus for understanding and accepting the process of system transformation and transition to a multipolar world order [4, p. 6-7].
However, the process of losing dominance is complex and long-term, and is also accompanied by fierce opposition from the existing hegemon state. The main problem in the formation of the modern world order is that the unipolar world no longer exists (although it is difficult for individual countries to recognize their loss of primacy and power), but the process of transition of the unipolar world to a multipolar world is still in progress, which makes it difficult for the full functioning of the system of international relations. Nevertheless, we should already talk about the transformation of the global world order, which changed the geo-economic and geopolitical situation already in the second decade of the XXI century. In particular, this is due to the formation of a new competitive environment, since the world's economic leaders, in addition to the United States, the EU and Japan, also include the so-called growing centers of economic influence: China, India, Singapore and South Korea.
Several trends can be identified that characterize the gradual change in the world order system: the weakening of the West; the shift of the center of the world economy towards Asia; the isolation of the Islamic world as a destabilizing structure in the in-
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ternational system; the formation of new political and economic associations, such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB), Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU); Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). It is also worth noting that the process of globalization has led to a change in the economic and geopolitical situation as a whole, pointing the way to the creation of international regional associations, unions and transnational corporations (TNCs) as important subjects of the multipolar world.
When clarifying the features of the formation of multipolarity as a new world system, it is necessary to state the main conditions for the transition to it: favorable political circumstances of the 20th century, modern achievements of scientific and technological progress, increased competition and the search for the best conditions for activities beyond national borders.
Conclusion.
In the course of the research, the following trends in the formation of a multipolar model of the world order were identified, namely:
• Individual States can no longer act as unified authorities or global centers;
• The main subjects of world governance are states in the format of socio-economic systems;
• New centers of economic influence are being created around regional blocks.
Thus, multipolarity, first of all, presupposes the presence of several centers of economic influence, which, thanks to developed integration activities at the regional and international levels, open up new opportunities for the harmonious development of the world community.
Conflict of Interest None declared
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References:
Информация об авторах
Го Цзюнье
магистрант 1 курса, кафедра политологи, специализация - «Трансформация и вызовы глобального порядка», Московский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова [email protected]
Guo Junye
1st year Undergraduate Student, Department of Political Science, Specialization - «Transformation and Challenges of the Global Order», Lomonosov Moscow State University [email protected]
Северин Игорь Владимирович
кандидат философских наук,
преподаватель,
Краснодарское высшее
военное авиационное училище летчиков
Igor V. Severin
Candidate of Philosophical Sciences, Teacher,
Krasnodar Higher Military Aviation School of Pilots [email protected]
