CC BY
6Magomed A. Umakhanov
Bachelor's Student, Faculty of International Economic Relations, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Leningradsky Ave., 49, Moscow, 125167 E-mail: umahanov495@gmail.com
Alexander S. Fedyunin
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of World Economy and World Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Leningradsky Ave., 49, Moscow, 125167 E-mail: afedyunin@fa.ru
Q Valery V. Smirnov
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of World Economy and World Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Leningradsky Ave., 49, Moscow, 125167 E-mail: vsmirnov@fa.ru
^r^nt state and prospects of development of the world market of energy resources
In recent times, the worldwide energy resources market has faced significant disruptions attributed to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, natural and man-made disasters, and conflicts between nations. Despite these challenges, it is noteworthy that there is a consistent increase in energy consumption, reaching unprecedented levels. This trend has prompted developed nations to intensify their efforts in transitioning towards a low-carbon economy and embracing the widespread adoption of renewable energy sources. These emerging dynamics present fresh challenges to the global energy market, offering valuable opportunities for reshaping the structure of the global energy balance. This article provides an in-depth exploration of the current state and potential future scenarios for the global energy resources market.
Keywords: world market of energy resources, oil and gas prices, energy policy, renewable energy resources. JEL Classification: F16
For citation: Umakhanov M.A., Fedyunin A.S., Smirnov V.V. Current state and prospects of development of the world market of energy resources. World Economy and World Finance, 2023, vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 34-38. DOI: 10.24412/2949-6454-2023-0200
Умаханов Магомед Алхазурович
студент бакалавриата, факультет международных экономических отношений, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации
Ленинградский пр-т., 49, Москва, 125167 E-mail: umahanov495@gmail.com
Федюнин Александр Сергеевич
кандидат экономических наук, доцент,
доцент департамента мировой экономики и мировых финансов, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации
Ленинградский пр-т., 49, Москва, 125167 E-mail: afedyunin@fa.ru
Смирнов Валерий Валерьевич ©
кандидат экономических наук, доцент,
доцент департамента мировой экономики и мировых финансов, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации
Ленинградский пр-т., 49, Москва, 125167 E-mail: vsmirnov@fa.ru
Современное состояние и перспективы развития мирового рынка энергоресурсов
В последнее время мировой рынок энергоресурсов столкнулся со значительными сбоями, связанными с воздействием пандемии коронавируса, природных и техногенных катастроф, а также конфликтов между странами. Несмотря на эти проблемы, следует отметить, что наблюдается постоянный рост энергопотребления, достигающий беспрецедентных уровней. Эта тенденция побудила развитые страны активизировать свои усилия по переходу к низкоуглеродной экономике и широкому внедрению возобновляемых источников энергии. Эта новая динамика ставит новые задачи перед мировым энергетическим рынком, предлагая ценные возможности для изменения структуры глобального энергетического баланса. В этой статье представлено углубленное исследование текущего состояния и потенциальных сценариев развития мирового рынка энергоресурсов.
Ключевые слова: мировой рынок энергоресурсов, нефть, газ, энергетическая политика, возобновляемые источники энергии.
Для цитирования: Умаханов М.А., Федюнин А.С., Смирнов В.В. Современное состояние и перспективы развития мирового рынка энергоресурсов // Мировая экономика и мировые финансы. 2023. Т. 2. № 3. С. 34-38. DOI: 10.24412/2949-6454-2023-0200
Energy resources remain a fundamental component of the economy for any country, be it developing or developed. Consequently, the global energy market stands out as one of the pivotal sectors in the world economy, subject to the influence of various factors that can often have unpredictable effects on its overall condition and operations. The main participants in the global energy market can be categorized into different groups, ranging from industrially developed nations to those abundant in natural resources. The first category encompasses states such as the United States of America (hereafter referred to as the USA), Japan, and the countries of the European Union (hereafter referred to as the EU). The second category includes Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran. Each of these represented nations harbors its own strategic visions concerning the future functioning and development of the energy market. Consequently, each is striving to secure a dominant position to contribute its hydrocarbon raw materials to the global energy market [rpH^H, 2022].
Consumer demand for energy in different regions of the world has only been increasing in recent years, and this applies primarily to Asia and North America. Detailed figures of the expected growth of consumer demand for electricity in 2023 are given in Table 1.
Table 1 — Projected growth in consumer demand for energy in some regions of the world
Region Projected demand growth
North America 2,4 %
Latin America 3.2 %
Asia 4,7 %
Baltic countries 1,8 %
Africa 2,9 %
Source: compiled by the authors based on [Сторожев, 2022]
It is noteworthy that hydrocarbon raw materials, particularly oil and coal, continue to dominate the world market. Nevertheless, there is a gradual increase in the share of renewable energy sources each year. According to research conducted by the oil and gas company British Petroleum (hereafter BP), the proportion of renewable raw materials reached 11.2% in 2022, marking a 1.1% increase compared to the previous year [Галкина, Грушевенко, Грушевенко, Кулагин, Миронова, 2015]. This trend prompts contemplation about the future of the global energy resources market, including what lies ahead and the necessary preparations for key participants and consumers. In the year 2023, major consumers of energy resources are expected to be countries such as the United States, China, India, Germany, and Japan. These nations will play a significant role in shaping the global consumption structure of energy raw materials. However, it is crucial to recognize that consumption patterns will also be influenced by the economic conditions prevailing in each specific country. The production and consumption of energy resources in the world will be diversified depending on different regions. Therefore, it would be advisable to consider each region in the context of production and consumption of raw materials. Authors would like to analyze the current situation in the global energy market, depending on its sectors (regions):
Asia-Pacific region
The Asia-Pacific region stands as one of the world's foremost contributors and consumers of energy. It remains an important center for coal and oil production, as well as energy consumption in the form of petroleum products. There is a rapid increase in energy consumption in this region, especially in the states of the Middle East, where industry and population are actively developing. Asian countries are actively developing economically, which leads to an increase in energy demand [Худойнатов, 2014].
Europe
Europe, despite a decrease in the proportion of coal in its energy production composition, continues to be a significant consumer of gas and oil. However, heightened environmental consciousness and an uptick in measures focused on curbing greenhouse gas emissions have propelled the active development of renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind energy, in this region. In 2023, Europe continues to actively reduce its energy consumption through the introduction of energy-saving measures. The European Union's Energy and Climate Strategy 2030 aims to reduce energy consumption by 20% by this year. One of the main measures taken in Europe is the modernization of buildings and the installation of energy-efficient equipment. More than 80% of buildings in the European Union were built before 2000
Errent state and prospects of development of the world market of energy resources
and require renovation to improve energy efficiency. Because of this measure, energy consumption in buildings decreased by 15% compared to 2010 [Mastepanov, 2019].
North America
In North America, energy production and consumption are closely linked to shale gas production. Thanks to the development of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies, the United States and Canada are actively developing shale deposits and increasing the share of gas in the energy mix. The adoption of renewable energy sources, including solar and wind energy, is also gaining traction in this region.
Shale gas production remains on a robust growth trajectory in the North American region. Shale gas stands as a pivotal resource for both the USA and Canada, providing them with substantial economic and energy benefits. Shale gas production in North America has increased significantly in recent years. This was made possible by the development of new mining technologies such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. These technologies make it possible to extract gas from shale deposits that were not previously considered economically profitable for extraction.
Latin America
Latin America is rich in natural resources, including oil, gas and coal. These resources attract investments in energy development and the creation of new capacities. The region is experiencing an increase in coal production and gas consumption, as well as the development of renewable energy sources.
Africa
Africa stands out as one of the most energy-unstable regions globally, characterized by diverse trends across its countries. While some African nations persist in their dependence on coal and oil, others are actively pursuing the development of renewable energy sources. Despite the considerable potential for renewable energy, including solar and hydroelectric power, many African countries still grapple with inadequacies in their energy systems. Africa is a dynamically evolving region experiencing substantial economic growth rates. This growth significantly contributes to the escalating demand for energy in the region, with energy consumption in Africa experiencing rapid expansion.
Regarding future types of energy raw materials, the authors would like to consider the main types of renewable raw materials that will play a key role in the future. Consider 3 types of renewable energy sources: hydropower, wind energy and solar energy.
On a global scale, researchers assess the potential impact of climate change on overall hydropower generation in different ways. So well-known scientists Mima and Criqui, using the POLYS model, were able to reveal that the growth of global hydropower generation in 2050 will be 3.7% and 6.8% in 2100. In the process of studying European hydropower, they supposed that there is a certain decline in Europe, but there is growth elsewhere. The results of modeling the Pacific Northwest predict an annual general decline of 2.6-3.2% until the 2080s. The winter increase in hydropower is offset by the summer recession. The key role here is played that the hydropower project is being developed for a longer service life than other renewable energy sources. As a result, hydropower planning should be carried out for a much longer period than, for example, the planned service life of a wind farm, which is likely to be 20 years [Co^ory6oBa, 2020].
The average wind speed is the factor that determines the potential impact of climate change on wind energy. As for the scale and signs of change, research on this issue sharply diverges, with scientists such as Pryor and Barthelmie suggesting that the potential reduction in wind energy production in Europe is negligible.
Other scientists, such as Sailor and his colleagues, have found that wind energy resources in the northwestern United States will decrease by up to 40% in summer and spring by the end of the century, without any consistent changes in the rest of the year. Since wind power is non-linearly related to wind speed, a decrease in wind speed of only 5-10% would lead to a decrease of 40%.
Cloud cover, in turn, is the factor that affects the potential of solar energy, which in turn affects stepwise and concentrating photovoltaic systems. Non-concentrating photovoltaic systems, which constitute the majority of existing photovoltaic systems, can harness scattered solar radiation in a manner similar to flat plate concentration systems. Patt and colleagues, using a multi-model ensemble, found that cloud cover increases by several percent at latitudes above 50° north latitude and 50° south latitude. Cloud cover can increase by several percent if almost all star systems are installed between 50° north latitude and 50° south latitude. It should also be mentioned that between 50° North latitude and 50° south latitude, where almost all STEC systems are expected to be installed, cloud cover, according to
models, will remain unchanged or decrease by several percent. Research has also found that for most types of photovoltaic systems, performance decreases with increasing temperature. They recommend using thermosensitive solar cells in regions with high temperatures or using a stock instead [Сологубова, 2020].
Thus, the purpose of this study was to analyze the installed capacity of renewable energy sources in developing countries with a focus on wind, solar and hydropower energy. The primary impediment to the continued advancement of renewable energy in these countries, as indicated by the conclusions, is the hesitancy of the private sector to invest. This reluctance stems from substantial costs and a prolonged period for the return of capital. The study suggested that government support and guaranteed purchase of produced electricity could solve these problems to some extent.
Литература
Галкина А.А., Грушевенко Д.А., Грушевенко Е.В., Кулагин В.А., Миронова И.Ю. Перспективы развития мировой энергетики в период до 2040 г. и их влияние на российский топливно-энергетический комплекс // Научно-технические ведомости Санкт-Петербургского государственного политехнического университета. Экономические науки. 2015. № 1 (211). С. 59-70.
Грицан Е.Д. Перспективы развития мирового энергетического рынка в условиях нестабильности // Российский внешнеэкономический вестник. 2022. № 11. С. 98-107.
Сологубова Г.С. Перспективы развития возобновляемых источников энергии в РФ // Технико-технологические проблемы сервиса. 2020. № 2 (52). С. 55-63.
Сторожев А.С. Тенденции развития мирового рынка нефти и газа: новая система отношений в постковидном мире // Геоэкономика энергетики. 2022. Т. 17. № 1. С. 34-46.
Худойнатов Ж.Ж. Мировой рынок нефти: текущее состояние и перспективы развития // Экономика, статистика и информатика. Вестник УМО. 2014. № 6-2. С. 453-457.
Mastepanov A. The World Is On The Cusp Of Global Energy Changes // Energy Systems Research. 2019. Vol. 2. No. 1 (5). P. 52-67.
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