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DOI: 10.24412/2686-7702-2022-2-6-12
Размышления о Новом Миропорядке
Шаида Уизарат
Аннотация. Нынешний мировой порядок, сформировавшийся после Второй мировой войны, сегодня переживает упадок. ООН оказалась неспособной урегулировать международные конфликты в ряде регионов. Наиболее явно это проявилось в контексте проблем Джамму, Кашмира, Ладакха и Палестины. Так, кашмирцам отказывается в праве на самоопределение, гарантированном резолюциями 91 от 1951 г. и 122 от 1957 г. Совета Безопасности ООН и статьёй 42 Гаагской конвенции 1907 г., в то время как граждане богатых стран постоянно реализуют такое право. Мировой порядок ещё больше деградировал после распада Советского Союза и последовавшего за этим образования однополярного мира. Крупные заимствования развивающихся стран у международных финансовых институтов сделали их задолженность критической, в то время как перспективы процветания этих государств и без того были достаточно иллюзорными, что выявили события в Шри-Ланке и Пакистане. Последствия экономической рецессии оказываются очень существенными для этих стран, в то же время их поглощает политический кризис, что сильно дестабилизирует ситуацию. Более того, экономика, нацеленная на постоянное наращивание вооружений и ведение боевых действий, привела к человеческим страданиям, разрушению инфраструктуры, бомбардировкам мирного населения, принося процветание богатым странам -производителям оружия. Это то, что нынешний глобальный экономический порядок дал развивающимся странам за последние 75 лет. Тем временем новый миропорядок, который можно оценить на примере инициативы Китая «Пояс и путь», является беспроигрышной моделью. Он сулит процветание как принимающим, так и инвестирующим странам посредством получения дохода. Более того, замена доллара и других твёрдых денежных единиц местными валютами, а также бартерная торговля существенно облегчат финансовую ситуацию и положат конец гегемонии США. Бойкот санкций, введённых Группой разработки финансовых мер по борьбе с отмыванием денег (Financial Action Task Force, FATF) и другими органами, также может стать началом конца нынешней международной финансовой системы и её замены альтернативной моделью. Наконец, в то время как суверенные страны защищали свои национальные интересы, не бросая вызов американскому нарративу о терроризме, пришло время разоблачить лицемерие и двойные стандарты, присущие западной риторике.
Ключевые слова: Китай, Россия, Кашмир, Палестина, новый мировой порядок, инициатива «Пояс и путь» (ИПП), международные финансовые институты (МФИ).
Автор: Шаида Уизарат, доктор экономических наук, декан Колледжа экономики и социального развития, Институт управления бизнесом (Коранги Крик Карачи Синд, Пакистан 75190); ORCID: 0000-0002-5212-6292; E-mail: wizarat@iobm.edu.pk
Конфликт интересов. Автор заявляет об отсутствии конфликта интересов.
Для цитирования: Уизарат Ш. Размышления о Новом Миропорядке // Восточная Азия: факты и аналитика. 2022. № 2. С. 6-12. (На англ.). DOI: 10.24412/2686-7702-2022-2-6-12
Some Thoughts on Evolving a New World Order
Shahida Wizarat
Abstract. The present World Order formulated at the end of the Second World War is crumbling. The UN has failed to resolve conflicts and bring peace. The issues of Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh and Palestine are the most outstanding examples of total failure of the UN. Kashmiris are being denied the right to self-determination promised to them by Security Council Resolutions 91 of 1951 and 122 of 1957 and Article 42 of The Hague Regulations 1907, while rich countries' citizens have been exercising their right to self-determination on a regular basis. The World Order deteriorated further after the breakup of the Soviet Union and the resulting unipolar world. Heavy borrowings from the International Financial Institutions (IFIs) by developing countries have made their debts unsustainable, while development has been elusive as events in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and several other countries reveal. Economic and social crises have also hit them hard, while political crisis is not just looming large, but consuming them wholly and is very destabilizing. Moreover, the permanent arms economies and the permanent war economies have brought a lot of miseries, destruction of infrastructure, bombing of civilians, bringing prosperity to rich armament producing countries. This is what the present economic order has given to developing countries during the last 75 years. The New World Order which can be glimpsed from the Belt and Road Initiative by China is a win-win model. It brings prosperity in both host and investing countries through income generation. Moreover, the replacing of the dollar and other hard currencies by local currencies and barter trade will ease the financial situation substantially and end US hegemony. The boycott of sanctions imposed by Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and other bodies could also be the beginning of the end of the present international financial system and its replacement by an alternative system. And finally, while sovereign countries have been protecting their national interests without challenging the US narrative on terrorism, time has come to expose the hypocrisy and the double standards inherent in the western rhetoric.
Keywords: China, Russia, Kashmir, Palestine, New World Order, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), International Financial Institutions (IFIs).
Author: Wizarat Shahida, PhD (Economics), Dean College of Economics and Social Development (CESD), Institute of Business Management (Korangi Creek Karachi Sindh, Pakistan 75190). ORCID: 00000002-5212-6292; E-mail: Shahida.wizarat@iobm.edu.pk
Conflict of interest. The author declares the absence of any conflict of interest.
For citation: Wizarat Sh. (2022). Some Thoughts on Evolving a New World Order, Vostochnaya Aziya: fakty i analitika [East Asia: Facts and Analytics], 2: 6-12. DOI: 10.24412/2686-7702-2022-2-6-12
Introduction
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity...".
This opening para from Charles Dickens novel "A Tale of Two Cities" [Dickens] best describes the current world order which is unfair, cruel, non-transparent, cannibalistic, bringing sorrows, miseries and pain to a vast majority of poor countries. While to a small minority in rich countries it is bringing prosperity, joy and control over resources which do not belong to them. The use of brute force is delivering prosperity to many beyond their wildest dreams. Following this brief introduction in Section I, the present economic order is discussed in Section II. It focuses on how it is inflicting sorrows and pain to the vast majority of peoples, usurping their possessions both public
and private, making 45 % of world wealth available to 1 % of world population1, creating a world where self-determination has become a hollow slogan, where world resources are enjoyed by those who have the brute force, where the powerful and the mighty take what they fancy and award it to whoever they fancy. In Section III I discuss how the present order has outlived its usefulness and has become a drag to a vast majority. I also discuss the rise of China and the resurgence of Russia and the expectation that people in developing countries have with regard to the New World Order. The role which middle income developing countries like Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc., can play in making the New World Order more palatable to Third World countries is also discussed. Section IV concludes the study.
The Present World Order
The end of the First World War led to the breakup of the Ottoman, the Austro-Hungarian and the Russian empires, as a result of which the states in the Middle East and the Balkans became independent. Similarly, the end of the Second World War gave birth to a whole lot of independent countries that were colonies. In 1947 Pakistan and India gained independence from Britiain, in 1949 Indonesia gained independence from the Netherlands. This was followed by the independence of Ghana, Rhodesia, Algeria and other African countries. In the Far East Vietnam, Malaysia and Philippines joined the comity of independent nations [Wizarat, 2011]. During the decolonization era the US played an important role in bringing an end to colonialism by championing the right of self-determination of the colonies .
The International Financial Institutions, majority of whose voting shares are controlled by western countries, were established soon after the war ended. These institutions played an important role in delivering development to Europe in the aftermath of the Second World War. In 1945, European infrastructure had been devastated as a result of the war, but the Marshall Plan was able to revive Europe in a very short span of a few years. The Golden Age, which brought tremendous prosperity to Europe, continued till the early 1970s when the first oil shock happened.
Developing countries also started borrowing from the Bretton Woods Institutions, initially quite successfully. But by and large, the great majority has not been so successful. For the vast majority of Third World countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East development has been elusive. The success of the 'Asian tigers' caused an academic debate that industrialization of the less developed countries was responsible for the deindustrialization of the industrial West [Singh]. The resulting Counter Revolution that started in the late 1970s, gained momentum in the 1980s and beyond. It resulted in the abandonment of the Keynesian interventionist approach and reduced the role of the government in the economy. The International Financial Institutions started using the neoliberal view to draw up conditionalities in their lending programs to developing countries. They also switched from project-based lending, which had delivered some development to developing countries, to policy-based lending [Singer]. This resulted in dictating policies in the borrowing countries and installing governments composed of the IMF and the World Bank staff, foreign and dual nationals and only those acceptable to Washington.
1 Global wealth report 2019. URL: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/aboutus/research/publications/global-wealth-report-2019-en.pdf (accessed: 30.05.2022).
2 This was not for any altruistic motives as the US did not have access to the colonies owned by European powers and felt that its industries and other sectors suffered as a result.
The pursuit of development through borrowings from the International Financial Institutions by developing countries resulted in bringing down their vibrant growth rates, closing down industries, creating massive unemployment, increasing poverty, worsening the distribution of income, depriving the vast majority of population of health and education facilities. This is what the present economic order has given to developing countries during the last 75 years. A large number of countries that have borrowed heavily from the International Financial Institutions have piled up unsustainable debts, raising fears of defaults, facing recessions, as revealed by declining outputs, investment and employment, increasing the skewness in the distribution of income and poverty. Social crises, revealed by increase in crimes, and a very destabilizing political crisis also hit them hard [Wizarat, 2011]. There are fears that the breakdown of the established order in these countries may take them to the colonial order that existed prior to 1945.
Moreover, in order to smooth out the booms and busts in the business cycle, the permanent arms economies [Kidron] and the permanent war economies have brought a lot of miseries and untold unhappiness in Third World countries. It has led to the destruction of infrastructure, bombing of civilians, their death and destruction, bringing prosperity to rich armament producing countries.
While a large number of countries exercised their right to self-determination in the aftermath of the Second World War, the people of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh have yet to exercise their right, which was guaranteed to them by Security Council Resolutions 91 of 1951 and 122 of 1957 and Article 42 of the Hague Regulations 1907 [Wizarat, 2019]. Lands that belong to the Kashmiris are being forcibly occupied. Little Kashmiri children are being blinded through the use of pellet guns, while the world community is completely indifferent. The plight of the Palestinians as a result of gifting their homeland to Jews by the British for the injustices meted out to them by the Europeans, continues to spill human blood and force evictions of families from their lands and homes. Strangulating 13 year old children to death by armed men and women does not move world conscience.
On the other hand, Western populations of Quebec in Canada and Scots in Britain have exercised the right to decide whether they want to stay or secede from their present states. Similarly, people in Ache and South Sudan didn't have to struggle much, and everything happened very smoothly and quickly for them. What is so special about the people of Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh and Palestine that they have to keep laying down their lives for the last 75 years without major powers paying any heed? The only difference seems to be on account of religion. Is religion playing a factor in deciding global strategic and political matters, when most Western countries claim to be secular?
As if these miseries and pain were not enough, policies made post 9/11 have made the world order even more repressive. After the breakup of the Soviet Union and the resulting unipolarity of the world, the US as the dominant super power with total support from its allies and the UN embarked upon enforcement of collective security. The US is interested in dominating and determining the rules of the game. The US perceptions constitute threat to peace, leaving no room for struggle against injustice and oppression, all legitimate struggles being dubbed as terrorism and dealt with an iron hand. With the establishment of the New World Order, the US and allies acquired God like attributes, reflected not only through terms like Infinite Justice, but more substantially in the objectives being pursued. These unleashed tremendous economic and military power to western industrialized countries and their allies, like India and Israel to bully countries economically, politically and militarily. Moreover, many less developed governments are selected by US, UK,
France and other imperial powers, with a substantial part of their GDP still going to these countries in the form of colonial transfers, sometimes with disguised names.
The rules-based order established after the end of the Second World War is quickly losing its legitimacy and transparency. The inability of western countries to share power with the People's Republic of China, commensurate with its growing economic and political clout, forced the latter to build institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The lack of transparency is also apparent from US actions to use institutions such as FATF to penalize Pakistan and other countries deemed undesirable by the US, by placing them in the grey list with the threat of being placed in the black list and the following sanctions.
Contours of the New World Order
The old order seems to have outlived its utility and is crumbling economically, politically and socially. There is lack of transparency, merit and observance of a rule-based system. Ethical and moral values have been abandoned and bigotry, biases and brute force have replaced them. What sort of world order should be built in place of the old one? The New World Order should be transparent, just, fair, promote universal good and bring prosperity. If the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can be used as a glimpse of what awaits us in the future, the new world order appears to be a win-win order. It will increase prosperity in investing countries by increasing prosperity in the host countries. One hopes that in the new world order citizens in developing countries will not have to see their loved ones dead, incapacitated, maimed and their houses demolished to increase wealth in rich countries. And prosperity in one country will create virtuous cycles both domestically and internationally. One hopes that it will be a peaceful, mutually beneficial order for the vast majority of peoples that inhabit the world.
Although the People's Republic of China, the Russian Federation and other countries are protecting their national interests without challenging the US narrative on terrorism, time has come to expose the hypocrisy and double standards inherent in the western narrative.
The present world order is based on unequal exchanges in trade and aid between the developed and the developing world. This is resulting in usurping the wealth of poor developing countries and its transfer to western countries. The immoral and criminal creation of wealth in the western world through death and destruction in the developing world is central to the present decadent international financial system. Time has come to replace it with a just, ethical and fair system.
The boycott of sanctions on countries by a large part of the world economy could be the beginning of the end of the present international financial system, and its replacement by an alternative system which does not create wealth through conflicts, killing innocent people, bombing and destroying cities and building them all over again. In order to turn the sanctions into a blessing we need to launch diplomatic initiatives. The focus should be to get as many countries to boycott the sanctions as possible. The success of this strategy will rest on a large part of the world economy boycotting the sanctions. The decadent international financial system will become irrelevant as the bulk of the world economy will be operating outside the system, based on barter trade or using gold or trade in local currencies. As the value of the dollar and the euro decline, it will start biting these economies, which are already facing financial difficulties. Replacing the dollar and using local currencies and barter trade will free the world of US hegemony. For example, the Islamic Republic
of Iran and the Russian Federation are expanding their economic relations successfully using local currency.
In the present order the conflict of interest of rich countries between their peace-making role and their national income generating role has been very sharp. One hopes that China and Russia will adopt a more balanced approach in discharging their global leadership roles and country advancement and development roles. One can hope that it will be a less exploitative order in terms of natural resources of Third World countries. Minimizing conflict through conflict resolution rather than conflict management will help in the creation of lasting peace. Moreover, ensuring value addition to resources rather than exporting them in raw form will promise to turn the resource curse into a resource blessing.
Greater integration of Pakistan, Turkey, Malaysia, Afghanistan, Iran, Indonesia, Qatar is laden with tremendous economic, strategic, social and political benefits. A quick glance at imports and exports of these countries brings out their trade potential. The countries under discussion have a lot to offer to Afghanistan. First and foremost, a lot of reconstruction and development work has to be undertaken in Afghanistan, which can be done by these countries. The People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation's approach has been people friendly and the Belt and Road Initative (BRI) has been a win-win project. It has tried to increase income and wealth in the host and the investing country simultaneously. One can, therefore, hope that the architecture of the New International Order will be imbibed with the same principles and goodwill. Thus, if the conflict between the super power role and the national economy development role arises, it will certainly be helpful to have large middle income countries standing together through greater integration of their economies to ensure that the New World Order doesn't militate against the interests of these countries.
Conclusion
The World Order that was formulated at the end of the Second World War in 1945 with the establishment of the United Nations to take care of world peace and the socio-economic well-being of populations is crumbling. The world body has failed in resolving conflicts and bringing peace. On the contrary, the UN has stood with the mighty and the powerful. There are innumerable instances of its failure but the issues of Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh and Palestine are the most outstanding ones. Kashmiris have been waiting for the last 75 years to exercise their right to selfdetermination promised to them by Security Council Resolutions 91 of 1951 and 122 of 1957 and Article 42 of The Hague Regulations 1907. Both the problems of Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh and Palestine were deliberately created by Britain, a permanent member of the Security Council, in its divide and quit strategy to create festering wounds for rich countries to dip into when faced with recessions on account of the capitalist crisis.
At the same time citizens of other countries like Quebec in Canada and Scotts in England have been exercising their right to self-determination on a regular basis. The people in Ache and South Sudan have also been lucky to have self-determination granted to them very quickly and promptly. One can't help wondering why the Kashmiris, the Palestinians and several others deserve such cruelties and excesses. It appears that the present world order has racist and religious connotations. The fact that world leaders are using these conflicts to bring prosperity to their countries speaks loud and clear about the moral and ethical fiber of the present world order.
Moreover, the world order deteriorated further after the breakup of the Soviet Union and the resulting unipolar world. The United States, UK, India, Israel, etc., have become world hegemons implementing an unjust, racist and religious order with impunity. The atrocities carried out by these countries on their own populations show that they are not fit to discharge the role of world leaders.
The borrowings from the International Financial Institutions by developing countries have resulted in bringing down their growth rates, deindustrialization, increasing unemployment, poverty, worsening the distribution of income and depriving the vast majority of populations of basic healthcare and education facilities. So while development has been illusive, these countries are heavily in debt which has become unsustainable as the events in Sri Lanka, followed by Pakistan reveal. Social crises have also hit them hard, as revealed by increase in robberies, kidnappings and murders. Political crisis is not just looming large, but consuming them wholly, which is very destabilizing. Moreover, the permanent arms economies and the permanent war economies have brought a lot of miseries, destruction of infrastructure, bombing of civilians, their death and destruction bringing prosperity to rich armament producing countries. This is what the present economic order has given to developing countries during the last 75 years.
One can't help observing that China, which doesn't have religion as its guiding philosophy, has suggested a more ethical and win-win model. It brings prosperity in both host and investing countries through income generation. Moreover, the replacing of the dollar and other hard currencies by local currencies and barter trade will ease the financial situation substantially and end US hegemony. The boycott of sanctions imposed by FATF and other bodies could be the beginning of the end of the present international financial system and its replacement by an alternative system.
And finally, while sovereign countries have been protecting their national interests without challenging the US narrative on terrorism, time has come to expose the hypocrisy and double standards inherent in the western narrative.
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Поступила в редакцию: 13.05.2022 Received: 13 May 2022
Финальная версия: 08.06.2022 Final version: 8 June 2022
Принята к публикации: 11.06.2022 Accepted: 11 June 2022
