CC BY
71
DOI: 10.24411/2618-6888-2020-10012
Shahida Wizarat
CHINA AND THE DEVELOPING WORLD
Abstract. Less developed countries' earlier attempts to develop their economies by borrowing from the International Financial Institutions (IFIs) brought recession, inflation, unemployment and loss of sovereignty instead of development. China's investment in infrastructural projects in developing countries has once again raised hopes in these countries. But Chinese investments are ringing alarm bells in powers that gain from the status quo. Although Chinese investments are bringing benefits to developing countries, gains would be greater if governments in these countries bargain harder. Moreover, since China is exporting mostly sophisticated hi tech products and importing mostly raw materials this might result in an "unequal exchange." The fact that many exports of less developed countries are composed of fuels and natural resources may also cause "resource curse"in less developed countries. If Chinese investments in less developed countries can help to develop 'dynamic comparative advantage', the curse can be changed into a blessing. Governments in less developed countries also need to come down hard on corruption, so that Chinese companies adhere to the same ethical standards expected of them in China. China also needs to convey the message to its companies that there will be zero tolerance for corruption overseas as well. And while China should continue to import minerals and fuels which are required for its own economic development, it might consider adding value to natural resources in their countries of origin. This will not only help in
converting the resource curse into a blessing for the less developed countries, but have a positive impact on Chinese environment. But above all, it will send a very positive message that China is not just another super power, interested in exploiting the resources of developing countries, but one of their own, interested in their growth and stability.
Keywords: China, less developed countries, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC); capitalist crisis, unequal exchange, "resource curse".
Author: Shahida WIZARAT, Ph.D. (Economics), Dean of the College of Economics and Social Development (CESD), Institute of Business Management (Karachi, Pakistan). E-mail: Shahida.wizarat@iobm.edu.pk
Ш. Уизарат
Китай и развивающийся мир
Аннотация. Предпринятые ранее попытки менее развитых стран (МРС) ускорить рост их экономик путем привлечения заемных средств от международных финансовых институтов привели к спаду, инфляции, безработице и утрате суверенитета, а не развитию. Инвестиции Китая в инфраструктурные проекты в МРС внушили этим странам новую надежду. Но китайская инвестиционная практика порождает тревогу у тех государств, которые выигрывают от уже сложившегося положения дел. И хотя китайские инвестиции выгодны развивающимся странам, достижения были бы больше, если бы правительства МРС жестче настаивали на своих условиях. Кроме того, поскольку Китай экспортирует главным образом сложную высокотехнологичную продукцию, а импортирует преимущественно сырье, то это может привести к «неравенству обмена». Факт того, что многие виды экспорта из МРС представлены топливом и природными ресурсами, способен породить в менее развитых странах феномен так называемого ресурсного проклятия. Однако если
китайские инвестиции в МРС поспособствуют формированию «ди-
1
намичного сравнительного преимущества» , то «проклятие» может
1 Динамическое сравнительное преимущество — изменение эффективности «простого» сравнительного преимущества с течением времени благодаря субсидированию производства, изменениям в обеспеченности факторами производства, технологическому развитию, установлению льготного налогового и таможенного режимов, росту вложений в человеческий капитал (Прим. ред.).
обернуться «благословением». Правительства менее развитых стран должны жестко бороться с коррупцией, чтобы китайские компании придерживались тех же этических стандартов, которые ожидаются от них в самом Китае. Также Китаю необходимо донести до своих компаний мысль, что и за рубежом сформируется нулевая терпимость к коррупции. И хотя Китай вынужден и далее импортировать полезные ископаемые и топливо, необходимые для его собственного экономического развития, он мог бы рассмотреть возможность производства продукции с добавленной стоимостью на базе природных ресурсов в странах их происхождения. Это не только поможет превратить «ресурсное проклятие" в «благословение" для менее развитых стран, но и положительно скажется на экологии Китая. Но прежде всего это станет весьма позитивным сигналом о том, что Китай — не просто еще одна сверхдержава, заинтересованная в эксплуатации ресурсов МРС, но страна развивающегося мира, заинтересованная в его росте и стабильности.
Ключевые слова: Китай, менее развитые (развивающиеся) страны (МРС, РС), инициатива «Пояс и путь» (ИПП); Китайско-Пакистанский экономический коридор (КПЭК), кризис капитализма, неравный обмен, «ресурсное проклятие».
Автор: Шаида Уизарат, доктор философии (экономика) (Ph.D. (Ec.), декан Колледжа экономики и социального развития Института управления бизнесом (Карачи, Пакистан). E-mail: Shahida.wizarat@iobm.edu.pk
1. Introduction
Chinese economy grew at spectacular rates for more than three decades, where policy makers endowed with the well-known Chinese wisdom used liberalization and privatization policies very astutely to transform the economy, increase growth rates, lessen the skewness in the distribution of income and poverty and attaining the status of a world power. In 'Globalization and its Discontents' (2002) J. Stiglitz states that China benefitted from globalization as it used its own discretion, while many other countries accepted International Monetary Fund (IMF) dictates.
In the year 2000 China accounted for only 7.1 % of world GDP (in PPP terms), but being the world's fastest-growing economy, and registering an average growth rate of 10 % for three decades, it was able to increa-
se its share in world GDP to 13.3 % by 2010. At USD 5.87 trillion China's GDP surpassed Japan's GDP at USD 5.47 trillion, becoming the second largest world economy after the U.S. in 2010. Chinese GDP increased further to USD 8.22 trillion in 2012, accounting for 12 % of world GDP that year and rose to USD 13.61 trillion in 2018, which was 18.69 % of world GDP [Statista, 28.04.2020]. China's population was around 1.400 bn in 2019 which is expected to grow to 1.404 bn by 2020 [Statista, 01.05.2020]. Industry and agriculture are the largest sectors, producing more than 60 per cent of China's GDP, employing over 70 per cent of the work force. Per capita GDP is 2,000 USD, while official poverty rate is 10 per cent.
Exports have been a major source of growth in China, growing from USD 23.63 bn in 1982 to USD 2.49 trillion in 2018. While imports increased from USD 18.90 bn to USD 2.13 trillion during the same period. Major exports are: broadcasting equipment (USD 231 bn), computers (USD 146 bn), office machine parts (USD 90.8 bn), integrated circuits (USD 80.1 bn) and telephones (USD 62 bn) [WITS, 28.04.2020]. China's main export partners are the European Union, ASEAN, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea. China's main imports are integrated circuits (USD 207 bn), crude petroleum (USD 144 bn), iron ore (59 bn), cars (46.8 bn), and gold (40.3 bn). And main import partners are: US, Hong Kong, Japan, Germany and South Korea [Observatory of Economic Complexity, 28.04.2020]. China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.
However, from 2013 the economy started slowing down. While structural change from investment to consumption and from industry to service sector continued, there was an increased emphasis on investment in infrastructure and real estate. China is going beyond its borders and investing in development of infrastructure in other countries. It has signed agreements with a large number of countries all over the world for the development and construction of roads, highways, ports and other infrastructural development projects in these countries.
Every country uses its foreign policy to further its economic, political and strategic objectives. It is, therefore, but natural for China to do so. Following this overview of the Chinese economy in section 1, I will discuss China's growing economic, political and strategic relations with developing counties in section 2. The problems and challenges that Chinese investments face will be the subject of discussion in Section 3. In Section 4 I
will give suggestions on how to respond to these challenges in order to develop a harmonious and sustainable relationship between China and the developing world.
2. China's Expanding Relations with the Developing World
Originally China's relations with the developing world were ideological since China is, and continues to identify itself as a developing country. In 1953 Prime Minister Zhou Enlai provided a basic framework for conducting foreign policy in the form of "Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence". These are mutual respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, nonaggression, non-interference in internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit and peaceful coexistence.
But China has come a long way since then. It has since transformed these ties into robust economic, political and strategic partnership. (China's foreign, economic and strategic relationship with developing countries is available in [Sino-Third World Relations...; Foreign Relations of China; Mitchelll D.J., Wong A., Szunomar A., Li Chenyang and Yang Xiang-zhang]). "Over the past decades, closer economic cooperation between China and neighboring developing countries has facilitated the formation of a network of partnerships ..." [ Li Chenyang, Yang Xiangzhang].
China's economic and foreign policy relationship with the developing world evolved during the last seven decades in accordance with the principles laid down by its founding fathers. In the 1960s China adopted a more ideological posture and supported communist movements in many countries. But there was a reversal to the ideological stance in the 1970s when Deng Xiaoping embarked upon liberalization. The same policy stance continued in the 1980s when China deepened its relations both with the developing and the developed world. As China continued to reach out to countries in Latin America, Africa, Central Asia, Asia and the Middle East economic cooperation dominated, but was deepened by adding a strategic dimension to it.
China has been using trade, investment and aid to further its economic, political and strategic interests and aligning them with the interests of
countries in the neighborhood and developing countries. These objectives are being pursued both through the existing regional and multi regional forums and platforms such as the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum (ARF), ASEAN Plus China (10+1), ASEAN Plus China, Japan and South Korea (10+3), Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS), Tumen River Area Development Programme (TRADP), Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC). In June 2001 China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan jointly established the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Its main objective was to fight terrorism and safeguard regional security. China launched the Xiangshan Forum in 2006 to promote political trust and confidence building measures.
These forums have been promoting economic, political, cultural and strategic interests of countries in the region. China-ASEAN free trade Area (ACFTA) was operationalized in 2010, making it the largest free trade zone in the developing world. ACFTA resulted in increasing bilateral trade from USD 54.8 bn in 2002 to USD 472.16 bn in 2015, while bilateral investments increased to USD 160 bn by the end of that year. But the most spectacular investment project that has attracted the most attention worldwide is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). BRI consists of six major economic corridors, these are the New Eurasia Land Bridge, the China-Mongolia-Russia Corridor, the China-Central Asia-West Asia Corridor, the China-Indochina Peninsula Corridor, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Corridor (BCIM). In order to strengthen and support these infrastructural projects the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was launched in October 2014 and the Silk Road Fund (SRF) was established in December 2014.
China is also promoting cultural interaction by sponsoring cultural exchanges with its neighbors as well as with developing countries. Having already established high class universities and centers of learning, imparting state of the art education in diverse fields, China is giving scholarships and fellowships to students from the developing world. This is not only promoting academic excellence and cultural exchanges in the region, but is a very effective display of Chinese soft power. Chinese culture is being further
promoted through the establishment of Confucius Institutes and Confucius Classrooms in several developing countries.
Pakistan's relations with the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) began in 1950 when Pakistan severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan and recognized the Peoples Republic of China and established diplomatic relations. Military assistance began in 1966, while economic co-operation started soon afterwards. This relationship expanded and blossomed over the years. Both the countries have shown understanding of each other's problems. Countries mostly have problems with their neighbors. India, for example has acrimonious relationships with all its neighbors, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, China, Nepal, while Bhutan has been totally subjugated. But China and Pakistan have shown to the world how decent neighborly relationship based on sincerity, equality and mutual benefits can be established. Friendship between these two neighbors should be a role model for other countries. China has supported Pakistan's position on Kashmir and Pakistan has stood by China on the Tibet and Taiwan issues. Earlier Pakistan acted as a bridge between China and the USA by arranging Henry Kissinger's visit to Beijing.
Pakistan has been the recipient of economic, military and technical assistance from the Peoples Republic of China. Both countries are now close strategic partners and China's help to Pakistan in the establishment of a civilian nuclear power project in Karachi based on Generation III technology is something that had been denied to us by the US, but given to India. China and Pakistan have developed close military ties, which have helped to diversify and balance Pakistan's defense supply and capabilities. Pakistan and China are also involved in joint production, ranging from textiles to military hardware including JF-17 thunder jets and guided missile frigates.
3. Problems and Challenges Facing Chinese Investments
While Europe was able to build its war torn infrastructure very quickly with the help of Marshall Plan in the aftermath of the Second World War, a large number of developing countries have been unsuccessfully trying to develop for more than 70 years. They started borrowing for development projects from the international financial institutions, and initially met
with some success. The famous Tarbella Dam and the Mangla Dam financed by the World Bank in Pakistan are cited as success stories. But over time, the International Financial Institutions (IFIs) departed from their project based lending and embarked upon policy based lending [Singer H.W.; Mosley P., Harrigan J., Toye J.]. In spite of many success stories, the IFIs deemed it fit to evaluate the whole gamut of policies of the borrowing country, rather than focus only on the feasibility of the project. What followed as a result of switching over to policy based lending and the devastation it caused to developing economies is common knowledge and has been well documented. Suffice it to state, that the developing countries that borrowed from the IFIs were not only unable to develop their economies, but brought miseries to their people through recession, unemployment and inflation and loss of sovereignty over economic decision making [Wizarat S., 2011].
It is against this scenario that the Chinese Government embarked upon its aid, trade and investment programs in the developing world. Chinese investments especially the BRI have met with a very hostile reception from the west. Western countries plus India have not taken very kindly to Chinese initiatives. USA, UK, India and their allies have started a very organized campaign against BRI especially against CPEC. Indian opposition to CPEC is in spite of the fact that China is investing in India through the IBCIM. I think there are two main reasons why there is so much opposition to the BRI. First, US as the world's super power thinks its "hegemonic nod" is required in deciding which countries will develop and which will not. As economic development of less developed countries will disturb the balance of economic power in the world. It could also be explained by the Limits to Growth Model which worries about the sustainability of third world development due to scarcity of energy resources. Worries have also been expressed about the sustainability of food resources, if the increased prosperity in developing countries leads to their citizens following the consumption patterns of rich countries [Sachs J., 2007; Trainer T., 2000; Wizarat S. Keynote Address, 2014]. That is why any attempt by countries to give economic development to their countries is viewed as an act of defiance.
Second, Chinese investments are referred to as win-win investments, meaning that they bring mutual benefits to both the investing and the host
country. When China, for example, invests in BRI it will generate incomes for Chinese professionals, wage earners, companies and the government through taxes. Similarly, for the host countries where the infrastructural projects are being located incomes will be generated, giving rise to increase in consumption, which along with virtuous cycles and the multiplier effects will increase incomes in other industries through secondary round multiplier effects. This has the potential to bring tremendous prosperity to developing countries.
Now compare the Chinese development model with the present model currently used at the global level. Since many rich countries are former colonial powers, who when forced to quit from the colonies, left intractable conflicts in these countries. When the rate of profit starts to decline in a mature economy, i.e. when the capitalist crisis occurs, a conflict which was left to brew by some former colonial power becomes alive. Whether it is an inter-state war or an intra-state war, it requires the purchase of armaments. This purchase of arms increases the gross domestic product of the armament selling country, and the decline in economic activity that had set in due to the capitalist crisis is eventually corrected. This is not a win-win situation, because there are winners and losers, i.e. death and destruction in the developing world brings prosperity to the armament producing countries (There is empirical evidence to corroborate the Marxist view that death and destruction in the developing world brings prosperity to rich countries [Wizarat S., 2013; Wizarat S. Natural Resources..., 2014]). This is the prevalent model at the global level. The Chinese model of generating incomes both in the investing and the host country through building infrastructures is challenging the industrial military complex model. This explains the very strong opposition to the BRI by western countries mainly USA and U.K. along with their strategic ally India.
Chinese investments are conferring economic, political and strategic benefits on China and the host countries, with the magnitude of benefits in the host country varying from country to country depending on how hard they were able to negotiate with the Chinese. The distribution of "technological rents" between the host country and the investing country depends on the bargaining power of the host country. Some countries bargain hard, others do not. What determines the bargaining power of any country? First, it depends on the leadership. And not on the charisma of the leader,
but on how much substance he/she has. How much rigors he or she has gone through. Second, the bargaining power of leaders depends both on their personal honesty and institutional development of the country. The independence of the judiciary and institutions whose responsibility it is to nab white collar crimes is vital to ensure that the leadership will protect the interest of the country in drawing up agreements with other countries. That social benefits are not sacrificed for personal gains. Since there is zero tolerance for corruption at the highest level in China, the Chinese Government has an advantage in negotiating with governments from countries which are more tolerant towards corruption. Due to the fact that personal gains do not enter the calculations, Chinese Government negotiates the best deal that they can secure for China. And governments in countries where there is greater tolerance for corruption do not bargain hard.
Moreover, many trade agreements between China and other countries are based on Emmanuel's famous "unequal exchange" [Emmanuel A.]. This can be gauged by looking at the composition of China's exports to developing countries which consist of electrical and electronic equipment, machinery, mobile phones, organic chemicals, etc., while developing countries are mostly exporting raw materials, fuel and minerals to China. China is exporting products with high technological content, but most of the third world countries are exporting raw materials, fuel and minerals in raw form. This confers advantages to importers of raw material and minerals on account of low income and price elasticity of demand for these products and high income and price elasticity of demand for hi tech products. A comparison of the composition of Chinese exports with China's trade partners in the developing world shows that while China has developed its dynamic comparative advantage, its trading partners are still producing and exporting in accordance with their static comparative advantage.
In addition to the problem of unequal exchange, another problem that exporters of natural resources in raw form face is on account of the "resource curse". By adding value to natural resources, exporters are able to get a higher price, but the process of adding value generates incomes, which along with the virtuous cycles and the multiplier effects brings prosperity to the country. But if these resource rich countries haven't invested in their resources and China has, the pattern of production and exchange will reflect present realities, instead of what we desire them to be.
4. Policy Implications and Conclusions
Chinese investments in port development, highways, railway lines and power indeed offer a win-win situation to less developed countries who have been disillusioned with the IFIs during the last seventy years. These investments will not only bring development and prosperity to these countries, it will also change the present world order that brings prosperity to rich countries through very uncivilized and cruel means. Countries that are critical of Chinese investments, especially BRI and CPEC must be more positive, and as rightly pointed out by A. Wong (2019) instead of criticizing they must present some alternatives that would increase the available choices to the developing world.
Moreover, in view of the high ethical standards practiced in China, one can expect that the Chinese government advise their companies to abide by the same ethical principles in friendly countries as well. And it is also for the host countries to try to improve governance and tighten the noose around the corrupt in their countries, so that the Chinese companies don't feel that the only way to get things done is through paying bribes and adopting corrupt practices.
And very importantly, the pattern of production and exchange between China and her trading partners will remain what it is, until such time that the latter industrialize and develop their economies in accordance with their dynamic comparative advantage. And if China is importing iron and steel for building its infrastructure, it has to import these in raw form. Having said that, if China is importing gold, silver, copper, etc. to add value to them, wouldn't it be better to establish such industries in the country exporting the natural resource to China. This will not only turn the "curse" afflicting exporters of natural resources into a "blessing". It will also help to achieve China's goal of dispersing some industries out of China, positively impacting on environmental degradation which is becoming a serious problem in China. But what is really important, such a strategy will give the message that China is not another colonial power involved in the exploitation of resources of less developed countries, but one of their own, that understands the problems of under development and is prepared to go an extra mile to correct the imbalances.
Библиогрфический список
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