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SIBERIA INTEGRATED REGIONAL STUDY DEVELOPMENT
E. GORDOV IMCES SB RAS, SCERT, Tomsk, Russia e-mail: [email protected]
G. BEGNI
MEDIAS-France, CNES, Toulouse, France [email protected]
Кратко описываются акции, направленные на развитие интегрированных региональных исследований в Сибири, которые были предприняты инициативной группой после рабочей группы ИНТАС 2004 "Towards integrated interdisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia Climatic Workshop" вплоть до настоящей конференции. Особый акцент сделан на необходимую кратковременную деятельность, направленную на официальное начало интегрированных региональных исследований в Сибири как части партнерства наук о Земле.
In July 2004 the key event in a rather short history of the Siberia Integrated Regional Study (SIRS) took place in Tomsk Akademgorodok. It was the INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop (SSW) called "Towards integrated interdisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia Climatic Hot Spots". The conclusions and recommendations of this strategic workshop were discussed and endorsed during a round table co-ordinated by SCERT and MEDIAS-France [1]. It was acknowledged that many disciplinary and interdisciplinary local and regional studies about environmental and climatic issues have been performed so far in Siberia. An overarching vision of regional aspects and their diverse interconnections with global aspects should be considered now as part of the Earth System Science Partnership [2, 3] Integrated Regional Studies (IRS) which could lead to the Siberia IRS (SIRS) Program. This requires bringing together scientists from several disciplines and sub-regions into a much wider approach and setting up the relevant structures to lead such integrative studies. They should not build a 'scientific closed world' but be bridged with and acknowledged by relevant decision policy makers in order to implement proper mitigation and remediation actions at managerial and political decision levels. The SSW identified that, for a number of important problems and directions, there are sound backgrounds (including research projects sponsored inter alia by the Russian Academy of Sciences and its Siberian Branch, the European Commission, the INTAS association, the NASA NEESPI programme) but the challenge is to switch from a specific approach to an integrated one. Fifteen strategic and nine technical recommendations endorsed at the event can serve as a solid basis of future implementation stages.
© Институт вычислительных технологий Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук, 2005.
Although the overall classical scheme of integrated studies seems clear (see for example the way in which the LBA project in Amazon is structured and sponsored at http://lba.cptec. inpe.br/lba/indexi.html) and a number of systems methodological issues have been additionally considered by recent international initiatives and activities (like the Global Carbon Project, GITOS, GICOS, GIOOS, etc.), there are many gaps and different opinions in scientific understanding of the problem, relevant ways of institutional structuring of the SIRS. It should be taken into account that development of a regional Integrated Observing System is a crucial component of the SIRS. It is also very important to clearly define users and potential funders of the program.
To start to perform the elaborated Recommendations an initiative group had been self-organized after the Workshop, which comprises the authors, Martin Heimann (MPI for Biogeo-chemistry, Germany), Michael Kabanov (Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS), Vasily Lykosov (Institute for Numerical Mathematics RAS), Anatoly Shvidenko (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria) and Evgeny Vaganov (Institute of Forest SB RAS). Its activity firstly led to organization of the Siberian Branch of the Russian National IGBP Committee [4] ( Evgeny Vaganov chairs it). It should be noted that this body comprises not only regional (Siberian) actors. In particular, all members of the initiative group are included into it. Namely the Committee will unite the regional environmental and climate change 'tenors' to define what could be the backbone of SIRS. Surely, this means bringing together several disciplines, defining final goals of scientific and societal interest, and the way in which these different research communities will work together in order to achieve these goals. This can be done only at the regional level.
It was decided that the initial stage of SIRS should focus on the four following activities:
• Quantification of the terrestrial biota full greenhouse gas budget, in particular exchange of major biophilic elements between biota and atmosphere (Leader: Evgeny Vaganov; Regional Core Group including: Andrej Degermendgi, Vaycheslav Kharuk, Nikolai Kolchanov, Vadimir Krupchatnikov and Alexander Onuchin).
• Monitoring and modelling of regional climate change impact (Leaders: Mikhael Kabanov and Vasily Lykosov; Regional Core Group including: Vladimir Krutikov, Viktor Kuzin, Vladimir Penenko, Gdaly Rivin, Vladimir Shaidurov, Valerian Snytko, Yurii Vinokurov, Arnold Tu-lokhonov).
• Development of SIRS information-computational infrastructure (Leader: Evgueni Gordov; Regional Core Group including: Igor Bychkov, Alexander Fazliev, Anatoly Fedotov, Anatoly Lagutin and Alexander Starchenko).
• Development of an anticipatory regional strategy of adaptation to and mitigation of the negative consequences of global change (Leader and Group to be determined).
The second action performed by the initiative group became organization of the first meeting of the Working Group on the Siberia Integrated Regional Study (WG SIRS), which was held on March 23, 2005, in Novosibirsk (Russia), within the framework of the Conference on Computational and Information Technologies for Environmental Sciences (CITES 2005, http://scert.ru/en/conferences/cites2005/). This event took place under the auspices of the Siberian Branch of the IGBP Russian National Committee, with the support of the Siberian Centre for Environmental Research and Training (SCERT, http://scert.ru/en/) and MEDIAS-France (http://medias.obs-mip.fr). It gathered regional, national and international researchers and attracted attention of representatives of institutions and funding agencies interested in the development of SIRS as a part of the Earth System Science Partnership and the IGBP2 Network of Integrated Regional Studies in selected regions of the globe.
This brainstorming session brought together a small group of regional scientists and their close national and international partners, in order to deepen and strengthen the preliminary project and propel it to the international scene. It took place just after the CITES 2005 Conference, which provided a unique opportunity to gather the relevant people, get a better insight of the regional state of the art, and have an in-depth discussion to chose the right tracks in order to achieve a fruitful synergy with endorsed global change regional programmes.
The workgroup was preceded by the "SIRS Scientific Background" cross-disciplinary session devoted to the state of the art on environmental investigations in the region under study. According to the current knowledge summarised in the seven papers reported during the session and highlighted during the whole CITES Conference (see relevant presentations in Ref. 5), Siberia is the place in the world where the most pronounced signature and consequences of climate change are already happening and will occur (Prof. M.V. Kabanov, IMCES, Tomsk). Various models have been developed to address different dimensions of this issue (Prof. A.A. Baklanov, DMI, Denmark; Prof. V.N. Krupchatnikov, ICMMG, Novosibirsk; Prof. V.N. Lykosov, INM, Moscow). Variability in space and time as well as regions of critical importance ("hotspots") have been evidenced through in situ and remote sensing measurement techniques (Prof. M.V. Kabanov, IMCES, Tomsk; Prof. A.A. Lagutin, Altai State University, Barnaul; Dr. K.G. Rubinstein, Hydrometcentre of Russia, Moscow) and were forecasted by advanced climatic models (Dr. Sci. E.M. Volodin, INM, Moscow). Climate warming will cause changes in the temperature and humidity regimes of several large areas. In some places, it will generate new large bogs, which will act as active sources of CH4 (and probably of CO2, at least at the beginning). In other places, the boundary of the boreal forest will move to the North, covering new areas and generating new CO2 sinks (Prof. E.D. Schulze, MPI for Biogeochemistry, Germany; Prof. A.S. Svidenko, IIASA, Austria). Dramatic modifications in disturbance regimes, in particular fire and insect outbreaks, are foreseen as well. Thawing permafrost is likely to entail the physical destruction of landscapes and infrastructures, and may dramatically change the hydrological regime and vegetation condition of vast territories.
What will be the net balance of such changes in terms of carbon, water and energy cycles at the local and sub-regional scales? How will it interact with regional and global scales? What will be the feedback to the climate system at all these scales? In addition to these questions, anthropogenic interference must be taken into account properly. What will be the reactions of citizens, policy and decision makers, public and private industries? Are we able to predict and model that? How should regional predictions be linked with the conventional IPCC climatic and human dimension scenarios? What is the current and future role of the Kyoto Protocol in the regional aspect? Many disciplinary and interdisciplinary local and regional studies on environmental, climatic and human dimension issues have been provided so far in Siberia by regional, national and international groups in order to obtain answers to these questions.
Significant inputs to the present knowledge were gained from Interdisciplinary Integrated Projects funded by SB RAS, including:
• "Siberian Geosphere-Biosphere Programme: Integrated Regional Study of Contemporary Natural and Climatic Changes" (SGBP, http://sgbp.scert.ru/en/about).
• "Ecological Problems of Siberian Cities".
• "Complex Monitoring of the Great Vasyugan Bog: modern state and development processes research".
• "Siberia Aerosols-2".
SB RAS is also planning to start developing information infrastructures to support interdisciplinary environmental studies on Siberia. EC Framework Programme Projects have been and
are still playing an important role in this region, for instance:
• "Terrestrial Carbon Observation in Siberia" (TCOS).
• "Multi-sensor concept for Greenhouse Gases Accounting in Northern Eurasia" (Siberia 2, http://www.siberia2.uni-jena.de/index.php), which are also funded by the Max Planck Institute via the ISTC Zotino Tall Tower Observation facility (ZOTTO).
A number of projects on Siberian forestry are supported by the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA, http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/FOR/index.html), within the framework of the Forestry Project. A set of projects on greenhouse gas exchanges between biota and atmosphere is backed by the National Institute for Environment Study (NIES, http://www.nies.go.jp/). Recently organised by the NASA, the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI, http://neespi.gsfc.nasa.gov/) is a quite promising approach to use Remote Sensing tools in order to investigate Siberian environmental dynamics.
Briefly scientific background for SIRS development can be summarized as follows. Preliminary results on regional climate dynamics were gained in course of performance of the SB RAS Interdisciplinary Integrated Project "Siberian Geosphere-Biosphere Programme: Integrated Regional Study of Contemporary Natural and Climatic Changes" (SGBP, http://sgbp.scert.ru /en/about), which became in essence the phase zero for SIRS development. The similar project "Complex Monitoring of the Great Vasyugan Bog: modern state and development processes research" devoted to study of dynamics of the unique Siberian natural complex under pressure of Global Change is also a structural element for SIRS. Funded by EC, MPG and ISTC international projects, like "Terrestrial Carbon Observation System - Siberia" and "Zotino Tall Tower Observation", performed by the world leaders in the area MPI for biogeochemistry (Jena) and IIASA (Laxenburg) in cooperation with the Institute of Forest SB RAS and other partners are very important for Global Carbon cycle understanding and should be accounted as pillars for the developing SIRS.
The ensuing discussions involved: Prof. A. Baklanov, Prof. V. Bogolubov (National Agrarian University, Kiev); Prof. A. Chavro (INM, Moscow); Prof. V. Efimov (NASU Hydrophysical Institute, Sebastopol); Prof. E. Gordov, Prof. K. Kutsenogii (Institute of Chemical Kinetics and Combustion, SB-RAS, Novosibirsk); Prof. G. Panin (Institute of Water Problems, RAS, Moscow); Prof. V. Penenko, Prof. V. Lykosov, Dr. K. Rubinstein, Prof. I. Sutorikhin (Institute of Water and Ecology Problems, Barnaul); Prof. R. Tamsaly (Tartu University); Prof. E. Vyazilov (Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information — World Data Centre, Obninsk); and Prof. E. Zakarin (KazGeoKosmos, Kazakhstan). Specific propositions on the possible elements and structure of SIRS were issued. They are summarised in the subsequent WG Conclusions and include among others the following suggestions:
• Prof. I. Sutorikhin proposed summertime measurements and observations of a wide set of environmental characteristics from research vessels on the Novosibirsk-Salekhard route as a SIRS project.
• Dr. K. Rubinstein recommended launching, as a SIRS project and as a background for other ones, the localisation of a MM0 model for Siberia, especially for modelling and monitoring snow characteristics. This would be led in cooperation with Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information — World Data Center, Obninsk.
• Prof. K. Kutsenogii suggested to relay as a SIRS project the "Aerosols of Siberia" SB-RAS Integrated Interdisciplinary Project that he is coordinating.
• Prof. A. Lagutin promised to pay special attention to the retrieval from satellite images of data on snow in Siberia and on the specific features of the Great Vasyugan Bog.
• Prof. E. Vyazilov advocated to launch a SIRS website, and to provide it with an electronic journal. He stressed the importance of information infrastructures and thematic Decision Support Systems as outputs of basic research.
• Pr. G. Panin highlighted the necessity to consider temperature and humidity heterogeneities at the meso-scale and smaller scales (lakes, swamps).
• Prof. V. Penenko emphasised the need to consider the connection between climatic and biosphere processes from the point of view of risk estimation and suggested to create the consortium of projects in the frames of SIRS in which the "Ecology of Siberian Cities" project could be incorporated together with other SB-RAS Integrated Interdisciplinary Projects.
• Prof. A. Baklanov proposed to relay on the "Enviro-RISKS" FP6 EC Coordinated Action as a project linked with the SIRS programme and to try to establish links of the SIRS and "Ecology of Siberian Cities" project with the GURME WMO Programme (Asia), to include one of Siberian cities as its case study. For future generation integrated models he suggested to consider the feedbacks between different scales of the processes, environmental pollution and urban meteorology/climate, health impacts and ecological conditions (FUMAPEX), first of all for studies of the aerosols and climate. He also recommended paying careful consideration to the Kyoto Protocol.
A clusterisation of relevant SB-RAS Integrated Interdisciplinary Projects was suggested and the necessity to establish links with appropriate initiatives at the national and international levels was acknowledged.
Conclusions
Both the discussion and derived conclusions (see Appendix 1) show that the main goals of the Working Group were achieved, i.e.:
— to analyse various research programmes and activities in the region from a systematic point of view, based on integrated ideas of the ESS-P/IRS approach;
— to identify gaps and overlaps and the ways to reduce them;
— to understand how these activities pave the way to the next integration steps; and
— to define such next steps.
Now we are ready to set out more precisely a preliminary plan to develop the scientific basis and to implement an Integrated Regional Study which would address the unique features of climate change in Siberia, its local and regional impacts, the responses and vulnerabilities of ecosystems, and its interconnection with global processes. We hope that the Working Group produced a clear manifestation to the international community that the regional scientific community, reinforced by strong international links, is quite ready and eager to work within the framework of ESS-P, and aims at developing an IRS which would correspond to the mainstream of national and international global change sciences.
References
[1] http://scert.ru/en/conferences/enviromis2004/recommendations/
[2] BRASSEUR G. 3rd IGBP Congress overview // Global Change Newsletter. 2003. N 55. P. 2-4.
[3] GORDOV E.P. Modern tendencies in regional environmental studies // Geografia I Prirodnye Resursy. Special Issue, 2004. P. 11-19.
[4] Bulletin of the Russian National Committee for the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme. 2004. N 3. P. 30.
[5] http://scert.ru/en/conferences/cites2005/conferencepr/
Appendix 1. Conclusions of the SIRS workshop, CITES-2005, Novosibirsk, March 23, 2005
PREREQUISITE — Preliminary work and circulation of information
Identify the largest set of disciplinary and interdisciplinary research programmes that can be of interest as a basis to SIRS. Most of them have been funded by SB-RAS in conjunction with other donors. (^ have a standard description sheet about projects & results and put it on the website). Enviro-RISKS INCO EC Project may be one of the backbones.
Collect all the existing data and research results. Create a SIRS website including a metadata base and an information portal.
Take advantage of the environmental information structure that SCERT is continuously setting up.
OBJECTIVE — Identify where we want to go
^ We need to have an overarching structure in order to define our Integrated Regional Study.
Key points as defined by SB-RAS:
• Study of greenhouse gases and aerosol exchange between biota, land and atmosphere.
• Monitoring and modelling of regional climate change impact.
• Development of SIRS information-computational infrastructure. Additional suggestions (goals & tools):
• Create an overarching structure embedding the specific studies led and/or to be led. System modelling could be an overarching process ^ what system modelling do we need?
• Projects must be of an interdisciplinary nature. Have proper interactions to define them.
• Role of socio-economic sciences: how to incorporate them? (scenarios in line with IPCC ones — societal impacts & mitigation/adaptation/alleviation costs).
• It is mandatory to cluster relevant SB-RAS integrated interdisciplinary projects and to establish links with appropriate initiatives at national & international levels.
• Attract some projects that are not aware of SIRS (e.g. YAK). SIBERIA should be contacted too.
• Also establish links with the GURMA WMO Programme (Asia), to include Novosibirsk case study and consider the influence of environmental processes on city ecological conditions, natural disasters (FUMAPEX), aerosols and climate and Chemical Transport Models (CTMs). Pay special attention to the Kyoto Protocol.
• Define appropriate relations with NEESPI.
• Organising data is a key issue. Set up a committee to collect and format proper data. Address current data as well as data leading to long-term trends.
• Set up the SIRS website. Provide it with an electronic journal. Stress the importance of information infrastructures and thematic DSS as outputs of basic research.
STATE OF THE ART — Issues fairly investigated or easy to push forward
• Climate:
— there are good results from comprehensive regional studies of present natural and climatic changes.
• Snow:
— localization of MM5 models for Siberia, using 3dvar data assimilation and making Siberia Reanalysis, especially for modelling and monitoring snow characteristics;
— retrieval of snow cover from satellite images over the great Vasyugan bog.
• CO2:
— there is reasonable knowledge about forest fires;
— TCOS Siberia gives an insight about seasonal CO2 variations (including burnt areas). Several other projects address the carbon cycle and must be taken into proper account within SIRS;
— specific areas such as the great Vasyugan bog: regulating role of climate, CO2 & CH4 biological cycles, general and specific patterns.
• Aerosols:
— the "Aerosols of Siberia" SB-RAS project brings a sound knowledge about aerosols;
— studies (i) about interactions between land and the Arctic Ocean and (ii) about combustion in Siberia led to improved knowledge about aerosols.
• Environment:
— a wide set of environmental data can be collected in the summertime on board research vessels (Novosibisrsk-Salekhard) and along the Moscow-Vladivostok railway;
— the "Ecology of Siberian Cities" integrated interdisciplinary project may bring specific anthropogenic input.
STATE OF THE ART — Identify the gaps that need to be filled
• Climate:
— some phenomena have no explanation so far (high significant temperature increase);
— there is a need to consider temperature and humidity heterogeneities at the meso-scale and smaller scales (lakes, swamps);
— the influence and/or coupling with phenomena such as NAO (and AO) must be studied.
• Biosphere:
— there is a need to better understand biosphere evolution and its interactions with climate features, and to consider biosphere processes from the point of view of risk estimation.
• Interdisciplinary aspects:
— define and lead proper interaction with socio-economic sciences. ORGANISATION — Propositions for a step-by-step progress
• Organise all the ideas that were proposed during the dedicated 2004 SSW and the 2005 CITES workshops to develop a coherent plan (first level of regional interaction).
• Interact with relevant ESS-P managers (firstly with those who showed interest in SIRS) in order to define how this plan fits with the SIRS concept and what points are lacking. Face-to-face meetings may prove necessary.
• Write down a refined plan bringing together integrated studies and defining how they interact to build up SIRS (second level of regional interaction): what objectives/results, what projects, and what organisation/schedule? That plan has to be endorsed by the IGBP Russian Committee/SB and ESS-P managers. MEDIAS-France can help. Then start building the SIRS website.
Received for publication june 2, 2005
