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Amnuel P.R. Scientific and technical forecasting in futurology and science fiction literature
1. INTRODUCTION
Modern futurology is a science that is very branched and has made numerous advances in exploring and predicting the future in recent decades. On the one hand, futurology uses mathematical methods to build models of the future being described. On the other hand, descriptive features of futurology bring this science increasingly closer to literature activity, namely to science fiction, and often not even to the subgenre of hard science fiction, but to the so-called soft science fiction, which quite freely manipulates tools of the humanities - sociology, psychology, and so on.
The second part of the paper discusses the main modern methods of futurology; the third part shows how the methods of predicting the future used by fiction writers differ from those of futurology. We give specific examples of 'inventions' and 'discoveries' by fiction writers.
2. METHODS OF FUTUROLOGY
One of the main methods of futurology is the extrapolation method. Using extrapolation, a researcher identifies some (of choice) property of a system and usually assumes that this property will not change over certain time, remaining the same as it was in the past and present. Extrapolation is the more reliable and efficient the larger the database used (the quantity of past data) and the shorter the time frame for which the forecast is built.
One of the brightest users of this method is A. Kurzweil, who showed that extrapolation often leads to an exponential development of events and, consequently, to a singularity beyond which prediction becomes impossible. A technological singularity according to Kurzweil is a point in time when progress acceleration leads to a qualitative transition. Kurzweil has both correct predictions (for relatively short periods of time) and incorrect ones. The singularity, according to Kurzweil, will occur around 2030. It should be noted that the extrapolation method can be efficiently used only for rather short time intervals (this method becomes of little use already for medium-term forecasts and is absolutely unsuitable for long-term forecasting).
One option for extrapolation is the Hubbert curve, which does not lead to a singularity. According to this curve, extrapolation brings a phenomenon to its maximum, and then a decline begins. There is a maximum, but there is no new quality.
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Mathematical modelling of a situation takes into account in extrapolation that several parameters may act simultaneously. However, a model containing more than 5-10 predicted parameters becomes either too complex to compute or has so many solutions depending on initial conditions that the predictive value of the model becomes close to zero.
Forecasting by analogy uses results of similar processes. This approach compensates for the lack of information, which does not allow, for example, for building an efficient forecast based on extrapolation of considered processes only.
Induction method. Using this method, one can develop certain rules by using a few examples and assuming that a rule that is good for these examples will also be true for examples not previously considered. The induction method is similar to the extrapolation method, but, unlike it, is more formalised.
Occam's razor (principle). A modern version of this principle states that more complex hypotheses are less likely than simple ones. In relation to forecasting, this means that simpler forecasts are more likely to come true than complex ones.
It is interesting in this sense to consider hypotheses related to interpretations of quantum mechanics: Bohr's (Copenhagen) and Everett's (many-worlds) interpretations.
These hypotheses differ just by one assumption:
In the Copenhagen interpretation, the wave function of a quantum system collapses (disappears) at the moment of observation.
In the many-worlds interpretation, the wave function does not disappear, all its values continue to exist at the moment of observation, but each value is observed in its own universe.
The Copenhagen interpretation contains a contradiction with the theory of relativity: the information that an observation has been made propagates at the speed of light, but the collapse of the wave function must occur instantaneously throughout the Universe.
In the many-worlds interpretation, there is no such contradiction, but there is an assumption that multiple universes exist.
Physicists are still arguing about which interpretation is correct - in fact, which of them is simpler.
An important task in futurology is to identify trends, which mean main directions of development, compared to which other directions are secondary. The main trends are considered to be those development trends that have the highest degree of inertia; therefore, it is easier to predict the development of such trends, and the result is more likely.
Expert polling is almost the most popular method of forecasting. In fact, these are three different methods:
1. Delphi method. Experts are anonymously interviewed in several rounds about when they think an event (invention, discovery, etc.) will occur. In each subsequent round, the question is refined according to results of the previous round.
2. Brainstorming is a method of problem solving (including in the field of futurology), where participants of the discussion generate the maximum number of ideas for solving the problem, including the most fantastic ones. The best solutions are then selected from the generated options and can be used in practice. The method is more personalised and informal. Its aim is to make a way into the future by generating original ideas.
3. Sociological survey of reference groups. In fact, it is an option of the expert judgement method, when it is necessary to find out perceptions of certain groups of people about the future.
The scenario method is the closest one to literature and, in particular, to science fiction. Scenarios are like plots (synopses) of novels, where a variety of factors, both regular and accidental, are combined. The disadvantage of the scenario method is the same as for other forecasting methods. We will return to this problem when we will discuss science fiction.
Since there are many methods, it is natural to have a method that unites all other methods. This method is called foresight. Foresight combines forecasting the future and creating an action plan. In other words, foresight is aimed more at educating people who will make decisions related to planning for the future.
A phenomenon called the 'black swan' has played a major role in futurology since relatively recent times. H. Taleb, the author of this term, proposed three main criteria by which an event can be classified as a 'black swan':
a surprise, including for experts;
significant consequences;
a reasonable justification appears after the phenomenon has happened.
Examples of black swans include the collapse of the USSR, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the Covid-19 pandemic.
In general terms, at one time, futurology predicted that nanotechnology, biotechnology, cognitive technology, information technology, and technology integration will actively develop in the future.
3. PREDICTION IN SCIENCE FICTION
Science fiction (meaning hard science fiction, hard science fiction), like futurology, describes the future (in literature or essay form). In this sense, the goals of futurology and hard science fiction are the same. It should be noted that, in the last half century, futurologists have started to increasingly use the methods that are usually applied by science fiction writers, for example, scenarios, road maps, etc.
The main difference between futurological studies and science fiction literature is that science fiction authors, firstly, use techniques of creative imagination development (CID) and, secondly, science fiction writers (according to the CID requirements) usually not only bring their forecasts to the moment of a qualitative leap (futurologists also do this - see black swan, singularity, etc.), but describe what could (or could not) happen as a result of a qualitative leap and how people and society would behave in such a situation.
The following are science fiction ideas by science fiction writers, where a qualitatively new change to the prototype (in case of an invention) or a qualitatively new explanation (in case of a scientific discovery) has been made.
1870. Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Seas by Jules Verne High-voltage protection of the submarine hull. Electric projectiles. The hull of a submarine is made double, with the outer and inner parts of the hull connected by H-beams. These predictive ideas by Jules Verne have a qualitative novelty compared to the underwater vehicles already known at the time. Captain Nemo's Nautilus is not just a scaled-up submarine of the mid-19th century, but a fundamentally new underwater vehicle.
1887. Looking Backward by Edward Bellamy. This book first described The Mall, a conglomeration of various shops under one roof. This was a qualitatively new idea that became widespread a few decades later.
Bellamy also describes a kind of modern credit card - this is the first idea of settlement using prepaid cards.
1894. A Journey in Other Worlds by John Jacob Astor. This novel describes trains travelling by means of magnetic fields. In Astor's time, there were only steam locomotives, and even the use of electricity (electric locomotives) in railway travel was decades away (although the London Underground switched to electric traction as early as 1900). The magnetic railway was a fundamentally new invention.
1895. Propeller Island by Jules Verne. Jules Verne invented a radically new type of rudder for steering river, sea and other vessels. The rudder in Propeller Island is made as two propellers, with the ship turning by changing the rotation speed of one of the propellers.
1896. The Extraordinary Adventures of a Russian Scientist Across the Solar System by Georges Le Faure, Henri De Graffigny. The characters in the novel move the spacecraft by light pressure, the source of which is outside the spacecraft. One can consider the description of light pressure on solids as not fundamentally new, since light pressure follows from Maxwell's equations. However, firstly, it is unlikely that the French writers knew Maxwell's equations and understood their implications, and secondly, in those years, P. Lebedev had not yet started his experiments, which resulted in evidencing the existence of light pressure.
1898. War of the Worlds by H.G. Wells. Wells invented a fundamentally new type of weapon that had never been known before. It is a biological weapon: microorganisms belonging to one ecological system are lethal to all organisms belonging to another ecological system.
1899. The Sleeper Awakens by H.G. Wells. The novel describes fundamentally new apparatuses and systems that generate and use electricity: escalators, power plants, and television. Video and audio recordings are used instead of books, which are also ground breaking inventions of the fiction writer for the time.
1908. Red Star by Alexander Bogdanov (Malinovsky). Applying the energy released by atom decay to move a spacecraft. In fact, Bogdanov made a fundamentally new discovery. Not only did he write that atom was not indivisible at all, but he also predicted that atoms had enormous internal energy that could be harnessed to move spacecraft.
1913. The World Set Free by H.G. Wells. A year earlier, Rutherford published his planetary model of atom. The complex internal atom structure became a fact. Bogdanov had already written about the peaceful application of internal atom energy, and Wells first described the use of atomic energy for military purposes, such as bombs.
1929. The Air Seller by Alexander Belyaev. Air is stored in a state of extreme compression, where nuclei of atoms are pressed tightly together. The idea is fundamentally new, as, at that time, physicists had not yet written about the possibility of creating superdense matter, which was first described in an article by V. Baade and F. Zwicky in 1934, who predicted the existence of neutron stars.
1931. Islands of Space by John Campbell. There is a dimension of space (hyperspace), travelling in which one can instantly overcome any distance in the space of three dimensions. This is a fundamentally new physics idea that scientists began to develop decades later.
1959. Diamond of 20,000 Carats by Valentina Zhuravleva. Turning coal into oil by explosion (hydrogeneration) directly underground in the bed. A fundamentally new idea for producing oil.
1960. Star River Proving Ground by Genrikh Altov. The speed of light can exceed 300 thousand kilometres per second with a very large explosion power. A fundamentally new idea, since physics knows of no processes that could increase the speed of light.
1963. The Second Way by Valentina Zhuravleva. For a human being to be able to exist on other planets with different atmospheres and other physical conditions, it is necessary to change not the planet, but the human organism for the conditions of other planets. A fundamentally new approach to the exploration and development of other planets.
1964. The Discovery Machine by Genrikh Altov. A science fiction essay describes an automated research system that includes laboratories and polygons and simulates an entire branch of knowledge (e.g., physics), including related sciences (e.g., chemistry). Comprehensive research, which is carried out automatically, allows for making scientific discoveries with maximum speed. This is a fundamentally new approach to the development of science that had no prerequisites in those years.
1966. The Donkey and the Axiom by Genrikh Altov. This book describes an interstellar spacecraft accelerated by a laser beam from, for example, the Earth. A fundamentally new approach to space. Moreover, such a star ship can be improved in flight based on the information received from the Earth. Information is transmitted by modulating the laser light.
1967. Counter-Clock World by Philip K. Dick. The embryonic robot described in this novel is the first reference to nanotechnology in fiction.
1968. Born for the Storm by Genrikh Altov. It describes a fundamentally new method of non-motorised propulsion for ocean vessels. An artificial tsunami wave is created, on the crest of which the ship moves, reaching speeds of up to 600 kilometres per hour.
1968. To Be a Princess by Genrikh Altov. A fundamentally new way of travelling in interplanetary space. It is proposed to atomise a large planet (Jupiter or Saturn) and create a Great Disk in the ecliptic plane from its gaseous matter. The Disc could serve as a medium for interplanetary vehicles. Flying between planets will be possible by aeroplanes and even balloons.
1968. All the Laws of the Universe by Pavel Amnuel. 'The laws of nature are a PROPERTY of matter, and like every property can be changed.... There are laws of nature that allow for changing other laws of nature. In particular, the speed of light can be altered (increased), allowing sublight starships to travel faster from star to star.' A fundamentally new idea about the possibility of changing physical laws and the existence of physical laws of a higher level, which make it possible to change the 'ordinary' laws of nature.
1970. The Flying Eagle by Pavel Amnuel. In the interior of neutron stars, neutrons combine to form 'molecules', chains of elementary particles capable of storing information like a DNA molecule.
A neutron star can be programmed like a giant computer with an incredible memory and calculation speed. A fundamentally new idea about the internal structure of neutron stars.
Ibid. Planet Laser. A planet whose atmosphere has a specific chemical composition. The radiation from the star 'pumps up' gas of the atmosphere, transforming gas molecules into a metastable state. A weak radiation at a certain frequency is enough for all molecules to go into a stable state, releasing enormous energy, like an impulse laser. This way to transmit information across interstellar distances is a fundamentally new idea.
Ibid. There is a kind(s) of matter outside of space and time. A fundamentally new idea.
1978. The Wanderer by Pavel Amnuel. The character of this story invents erratology, a science of scientific errors, which allows for making correct predictions and discoveries by studying erroneous scientific ideas only. A fundamentally new approach to science and error studies.
1978. The Distant Song of Arcturus by Pavel Amnuel. A Dyson hemisphere is a paraboloid with the Sun in the focus point. People settle on the inner surface of the paraboloid. The whole system, along with the Sun, becomes a starship. A fundamentally new idea of moving the entire solar system.
Ibid. The voice of the Universe is a sound wave that propagates through the Universe after the Big Bang similarly to microwave radiation. A fundamentally new physical idea similar to that of the microwave background.
1978. And Heard a Voice by Pavel Amnuel. This novel describes virtual world lines: events that had no causes and therefore no consequences in the overall development of the Universe. If a causeless event happens in history, it will have no consequences, its world line will be cut off, and it may happen either immediately after the event or much time later, but it will happen necessarily, and the world will continue to develop as if the strange event had not happened at all.
1982. The Overcoming (Cosmic Piastres) by Pavel Amnuel. A neutron star consists of many two-dimensional layers of neutron civilisations. Two-dimensional civilisations nested one inside the other like matryoshka dolls. Development of the idea described in the The Flying Eagle story.
Ibid. A huge balloon made of a thin film with an asteroid or a planet inside. A fundamentally new idea of preserving atmospheres of non-massive planets and large asteroids.
1989. The Kabbalist by Pavel Amnuel. The person physically exists in our world, but sees not our world, but some other world. He hears sounds from the third world, but feels the fourth world.
1994. Yefim Zlatkin's Star Wars b Pavel Amnuel. This story is about reverse astrology, which means that if the fate of a person or country is determined by processes related to movements of planets, then it is necessary to change the orbit of a planet (or an asteroid) to change the fates of people.
1998 Only the Reasonable Are Free by Pavel Amnuel. As the mind develops, the choice becomes more and more free. Ancient prophets had virtually no choice, and therefore could foresee thousands of years ahead. Gradually, the choice turns into a chaos of equal opportunities. The paradox and the misfortune of every civilisation: first to see the way through to the end and not to understand it and then to understand more, but to see less. Knowing and understanding of all things learnt is a constant. The mind, by its presence in the Universe, 'rocks' its laws and makes the world more and more random.
1999. Story of Your Life by Ted Chan. This story describes a fundamentally new language, which is devoid of temporal component and causality, allowing for covering the whole essence of events at once and foreseeing the future for those who use this language.
2000. The Tri-Universe by Pavel Amnuel. During the Big Bang, the Universe was divided into three components: our material universe, the world where matter and ideas passing into each other coexist, and the third world of intelligent ideas. A fundamentally new cosmological idea.
2001. According to His Deeds... by Pavel Amnuel. There are no independent events in nature that have exactly the same probability of coming true. Such events are identical, which means that they are the same event. The causes of events do not change, because they have already happened, but the effects change places. This is a fundamentally new physical idea for which there is no proof or refutation yet.
Ibid. Knowledge leads to localisation of probabilities and a change in the distribution of probabilities for all events. The phenomena of nature do not depend on the observer's will, they depend on his state, where knowledge is a state.
2012. The Seagull by Pavel Amnuel. Complete quantum entanglement occurs at the Big Bang and persists to the present day, leading to the evolution of non-living forms at the quantum level. 'Steam locomotive in space' may be a result of quantum evolution, not an artefact. Quantum evolution is a fundamentally new idea.
2014. The Purely Scientific Expertise by Pavel Amnuel. Increasing entropy in the Universe leads to the possibility of events previously considered supernatural.
2016. The Observer's Problem by Pavel Amnuel. God, by observing people, influences history and personal life by the very fact of observation. By watching each other, people create chaos.
2024. The Two by Pavel Amnuel. In the Big Bang, two universes are created: the first of matter and the second of antimatter. This is a fundamentally new cosmological idea explaining the absence of antimatter objects in the Universe.
4. CONCLUSION
Science fiction ideas have been described that can be considered groundbreaking. Not only did these ideas not exist in the science and technology of their time (at the time of Jules Verne and Herbert Wells, futurology did not yet exist at all, and at the time of Henry Altov and Valentina Zhuravleva, futurology did not have the current set of methods), but in many cases scientists and inventors did not think about the possibility of expressing (and refuting, if necessary) such ideas.
In 1982, Heinrich Altshuller (Genrikh Altov) proposed to develop a scale for evaluating science fiction ideas. Such a scale was developed and published by Genrikh Altov and me (Fantasy Scale-2). One of the main evaluation criteria is the novelty of the idea. The scale contains four levels of novelty.
Level 1 (lowest): the idea hardly differs from the prototype.
Level 2: the idea significantly drifts from the prototype.
Level 3: the idea is fundamentally (qualitatively) different from the prototype.
Level 4: the idea is original and without a prototype.
Futurological predictions are mainly Level 1 and Level 2 (in very rare cases, Level 3) ideas.
Among science fiction ideas, too, most are Level 1 and Level 2 ideas. The difference from futurology starts with Level 3 ideas. There are no Level 4 ideas in futurology. And this is natural. A futurologist cannot afford to come up with ideas that have no prototype, but a fiction writer can and often should. It is Level 4 ideas that allow science fiction to 'compete' with science in forecasting the future and sometimes become winners of such 'competition'.
