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СТАТЬИ
Л. Донай
МЕЧТЫ О КОСМОСЕ -МЕЖДУ ВООБРАЖЕНИЕМ И РЕАЛЬНОСТЬЮ. РАЗМЫШЛЕНИЯ В ПРЕДДВЕРИИ НОВОЙ КОСМИЧЕСКОЙ ЭРЫ
Аннотация
Цель этой публикации - представить мечты и видения человека о будущем, особенно в контексте покорения Космоса. Проекции этих мечтаний и образов можно встретить в различных научно-фантастических произведениях - книгах, фильмах и т.д. Эти работы, по сути, задают будущим поколениям направление развития, которое позволит (уже позволило, отчасти) воплотить их мечты в жизнь. Стоит упомянуть об этих прогнозах, потому что мечты прошлых поколений сейчас становятся реальностью. А будут ли реализованы и нынешние? Статья является развитием тезисов, представленных на международной научной конференции „Космическое пространство в XXI веке", организованной департаментом международных отношений факультета политических наук и журналистики Университета Адама Мицкевича и По-знанским отделением Польского общества международных исследований.
Ключевые слова:
Космос, мечты, прогноз.
L. Donaj
DREAMS OF SPACE -BETWEEN FICTION AND REALITY. CONSIDERATIONS ON THE EVE OF A NEW SPACE AGE
Abstract
The content of this paper constitutes a demonstration of human dreams and visions considering future, especially in a context of the Cosmos' conquest. Projections of these dreams can be found in many types of science-fiction creations: books, movies etc. Forasmuch these works determine a direction of development for the future generations, the direction that would allow (in some part it already has allowed) to realize their dreams. It's worth mentioning these projects, as past generations' dreams are becoming reality now - will the ongoing ones be realized as well? This article is a continuation of the thesis presented during the conference "Space in the XXI century" organized by the Department of International Relations of the Faculty of Political Science and Journalism of Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznan and the Poznan branch of Polish Society for International Studies.
Key words:
Universe, dreams, forecast.
It is a man's dream to discover what is unexplored, mysterious, and fascinating. Sometimes this is done without looking at the cost because dreams are priceless. In the beginning, curiosity about the world and the desire to explore was carried out by discovering new areas on Earth, but already in those days man boldly stared at the sky and dreamed that one day he would see what secrets the stars hide and asked himself many questions, to which throughout history he has
tried to find answers. Not surprisingly, many literary works, cinematographic works, and computer games were created, which intreated as permitted him a way reflected the dreams of the authors, fascination with the theme of space, distant worlds, alien civilizations [22]. They depicted their hopes, fears, desires and, above all, the conviction that man is in the undefined future to do it. Interestingly, each author presents the universe and his vision of it according to his own beliefs and life experiences, thus actually enriching the imagination already available. One presents the exploration of the universe as a hope for the unification of humanity and the possibility of peace, while another presents the possibility of becoming entangled in conflicts with more advanced aliens, who will only wish to annihilate our species [22]. We can mention here, for example, such films as. Le Voyage dans la Lune (1902); Metropolis (1927); Frau im Mond (1929); 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968); Star Trek: The Original Series (1966-1969); Interstellar (2014); The Martian (2015); Passengers (2016); Cosmos: A Space Time Odyssey (2014); The Right Stuff (1983); Moon (2009); Event Horizon (1997); Solaris (1972); Alien (1979); Blade Runner (1982) and many more.
Dreams about reaching the stars and exploring other worlds are as old as humanity itself. Since so far, the level of technology is too low to set foot on even Neptune or the moons of Saturn, observations with telescopes, sending a probes and... imagination remains. How far did the authors of fantasy reach with it? How much of the Cosmos do they think a man can know? We could start the review with myths and legends whose heroes reached the Moon - such as Pan Twardowski (called the Polish Faust - a figure of a Polish nobleman, who, according to the legend, sold his soul to the Devil. He is the main character of several fairy tales and legends, almost each of which presents a different story. One of the most famous claims is that he is currently on the moon). However, it was Julius Verne who described the first expedition of this kind, and after him, Jerzy Zutawski created the timeless work "On the Silver Globe". These writers presented the Moon as a place suitable for life and with an atmosphere that allowed it to breathe freely. Given that we have Luna at our fingertips, it is not even a hundredth mile of space [24; 31; 34; 36]. We hit a little further in the numerous novels about the exploration of Mars. "The Martian Chronicles" by Ray Bradbury, written in 1950, shows the story of the conquest of the Red Planet between 1999 and 2026. As you can see, neither the deadline nor the discovery of an advanced civilization on the neighboring globe checked out. In Lem's "Fiasco" we already reach the outskirts of the Solar System, where the Sun is just a distant dot on Titan, a
moon of Saturn, which humanity exploits harshly. On an astronomical scale, however, we are still in our backyard [5; 19; 31].
After the flight of J. Gagarin, there was a wave of optimism associated with the conquest of space by man, and on the pages of fantasy novels, mankind reached the remote corners of space. However, "remote" on a human scale does not necessarily mean a great distance on an astronomical scale. An excellent example of this is a great novel by Sergei Sniegov "Галактическая разведка" (Galactic Exploration) [31].
Together with the heroes we travel light years, reach hundreds of planets, meet lots of intelligent races, but they are only 1-2 percent of the Cosmos. Despite the advanced technology we are still very far from the center of our galaxy! It is a medium-sized cluster, of which there are countless others in the universe. Although our knowledge of the cosmos has increased by several thousand percent compared to the twenty-first century, it is barely out of our backyard on the street in front of our house on the cosmic scale. It's worth noting that most science fiction authors have realized and are aware of the limitations placed on humans and their technology by nature itself, so venturing into the farthest reaches of space is mostly treated with a wink. Good examples are "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" by Adams, in which one can jump on any area of the cosmos, or humorous expeditions of Lem's characters to planets inhabited by the NFR (the Highest Phase of Development) [1; 18; 31].
Of course, one would add such "games" (though this would be an insult to followers of these series) such as Star Trek or Star Wars, in which one can traverse space through various fancy technologies [27; 28; 31].
A separate issue is whether sci-fi works reflect reality (leaving aside questions of the authors' imagination relating to propulsion systems, teleportation -although this need not be so distant from us, etc.) [30; 32], related to the earthly legislation. However, for the sake of accuracy, contemporary law and its interpretation is so changeable that it cannot constitute the foundations of any system proposed to people. It is noteworthy that the writer Samuel Edward Finer, back in the pre-industrial era visiting towns inhabited by the same "people" noted that along the way the law changed as often as he changed horses [13, p. 464].
This problem can be traced to the example of the adventures of M. Watney -the protagonist of the film "The Martian" (2016). M. Watney has become a character known to science fiction fans around the world. He is the main character of the novel "The Martian" and the film of the same title. Abandoned by his companions
on the surface of the Red Planet, he does everything to return to Earth. After many adventures, he reaches the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), a launch module provided to the planet by NASA for the participants of the next mission. He takes control of it to leave Mars. In doing so, he explains that since Mars is not owned by any country, its surface can legally be treated as international waters on Earth. And since he steps from international waters onto a ship that does not belong to him and takes it over, he is acting like a pirate. However, this romantic notion is not consistent with current law today. Just because Mars is not under the jurisdiction of a particular country does not automatically mean that its surface can be treated as international waters. Secondly, Mark Watney, in taking control of the MAV, does not resort to threats or violence, because there are no other people on board the vehicle. Therefore, the protagonist's actions could be considered at most illegal appropriation or theft, but not an act of piracy. Moreover, the MAV is owned by the U.S. government, and Mark Watney is an American citizen and, as a NASA astronaut, an employee of a government institution. Therefore, he could be charged at most with theft of public property or misappropriation. And finally, the most important issue: by taking control of the MAV, the protagonist is acting in a state of grave necessity. He is saving his own life and has no other choice. Therefore, he has the right to use MAV, even if no one has directly permitted him, to do so [35, pp. 30-36].
Complementing the above, further questions must also be answered:
1. Who owns the satellites orbiting the orbits? - They are owned by states, institutions, organizations, or private companies. Of the approximately 1260 satellites currently active, 528 are of American "pedigree". In second place are China and Russia - they have about 130 satellites each;
2. Can a country claim the Moon as its territory? - This is forbidden by the basic international legal act that regulates the activities of individual countries in space, called the Outer Space Treaty. According to its second article, no state may control or extend its jurisdiction over the Moon or any other celestial body. Fundamental to a comprehensive view of the problem is also the first article, according to which the exploration and use of outer space and celestial bodies are for the benefit and in the interest of all countries and constitute a common heritage of mankind. This space can be used by any country and no country can be discriminated for example, because of the level of development. Access to all areas of the celestial bodies is also free. Moreover, the treaty ensures freedom of scientific research in space;
3. Who can name a star? - This is another idea of businessmen to make money. On the Internet, many services offer the opportunity to give your name to a star, or even the whole constellation. Prices start from a few tens of dollars. However, the only organization that gives official names to newly discovered planets, moons, comets, asteroids, or other astronomical objects is the International Astronomical Union - IAU. The IAU has also definitively established the boundaries of the constellations and makes important decisions - such as changing Pluto's status from a "full-fledged" planet to a dwarf planet;
4. Is it possible to buy a plot of land on the Moon? - No, although Dennis Hope, a businessman from the USA, has been selling such "properties" since the 1980s. However, he does it illegally. For such trade to be possible, the lunar surface would have to fall under the jurisdiction of a particular state. This state and its legal regime would be a guarantee for the citizen that he has acquired the right of ownership to the lunar land legally and that he can dispose of it freely. Meanwhile (as mentioned earlier) the Moon and other celestial bodies cannot be subject to any state [35, pp. 30-36];
5. At what altitude is the boundary between national airspace and outer space? - Space does not belong to anyone. However, at what point does it begin? There is still no single, universally accepted answer to this question that is enshrined in international law. The proposals of various countries and organizations on this issue range from 30 km (such a maximum ceiling is reached by most aircraft) to 160 km (this is the minimum altitude at which a space vehicle orbiting the Earth can be found). In practice, the limit of space is usually the so-called Karman line. It runs at an altitude of 100 km above sea level;
6. Who will own the resources extracted in Space? - This question is not entirely clear. The U.S., which has not signed the international Moon treaty, introduced a new law at home in late 2015 to regulate this issue. The law passed in the United States provides U.S. citizens and companies with the right to own, use and sell raw materials extracted primarily from asteroids. Under the regulation, referred to as The Space Act of 2015 for short, U.S. citizens or businesses can only obtain ownership of inanimate resources from celestial bodies in the solar system or outer space. Bacteria found on a planetoid, therefore, could not be owned by the company that came across them. The new American law is controversial. In order not to come into conflict with international law, the U.S. Congress included an "extraterritorial sovereignty clause" in the adopted law, which clearly states that the property
rights granted by the law to the extracted minerals do not warrant taking ownership of the celestial body itself [19; 35, pp. 30-36].
The Earth's space adventure, which began when the Soviet Union sent the first artificial satellite Sputnik-1 into orbit in 1957, has had a military character from its inception. The foundations of space rocket technology were laid by a team of Nazi scientists led by Wernher von Braun and the individual stages of the "conquest" of space in the post-war period marked the successive phases of the Cold War rivalry between the two superpowers aspiring to the role of the world hegemon. At first, the development of missile technology was dictated by the need to develop ever faster and more precise nuclear payload carriers of the global range. No less important was the use of satellites in spy missions to gather information from the territory of hostile states. As if when this technological race, technological boons appeared: meteorological satellites, advances in electronics and computing technology, and new materials that later found civilian applications [8].
This new area of human activity was reflected in the cultural sphere. Numerous science-fiction stories and films began to be written, presenting optimistic ideas about what the new technological era would bring to people and our planet. The apogee of this "space fever" occurred during the Apollo lunar missions; the creators dreamt up untimely visions of the Moon, wherein the year 2000 there would be lively traffic and new bases would be built. Reality quickly verified these dreams. The public was not aware of the enormous costs and risks involved in such escapades, nor that the real driving force behind the rapid development of the manned flight program was propaganda. When the U.S. took the whole pot in the lunar poker game, the fundamental political objectives surrounding the project were achieved and a rational decision was made to end manned lunar flights. There was no realistic prospect of linking the expansion to other planets with concrete, economic benefits to justify such massive undertakings (as there had been, for example, after the discovery of the American mainland by Europeans). Where space offered concrete profits, that is around commercial satellites (telecommunications, navigation, and meteorological), quickly there was a development of appropriate technologies, and today a significant part of the transmission of the world telecommunication network takes place through space and the GPS is used not only by the U.S. military (although its signal intended for civil purposes is less accurate). «At the same time, it was realized quite quickly that there are no economic reasons to continue sending people to the Moon, let alone to Mars» [8].
Freeman Dyson, a physicist from the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, points out, however, that the fascination with space flight has not disappeared. It's thriving in the space that was created in the collective imagination after the space shuttle program ended in 2011. In conversations with inspired enthusiasts, especially those outsides of NASA, one can still hear echoes of the old ambition, thirst for adventure, and fascination with space. Peter Diamandis, one of the founders of Planetary Resources, the company funded by billionaires Larry Page and Eric Schmidt, which a few years ago announced a plan to use unmanned space vehicles to extract rare metals from asteroids, hopes that by the end of the decade his company will have defined specific goals and begun to turn a profit. He is echoed by Mason Peck (NASA's chief engineer from 2011 to 2013): large and small companies will begin to find ways to make profits from space. Such interest in space and the opportunities to make money from it have not been seen before. On Earth, the market has long been the engine of exploration. Medieval merchants undertook risky expeditions along the Silk Road to reach China; Portuguese caravels in the 15th century sailed beyond the borders of the known world not only for exploration but primarily in search of gold and spices [16].
Historically, the motivation to penetrate new lands has been the search for raw materials, Diamandis says. Science and curiosity are weak incentives compared to getting rich. The only way to initiate large-scale expansion into space is to create market incentives, such are raw material acquisition. One raw material of interest to him and company co-founder Eric Anderson is platinum, so rare on Earth that it currently fetches a price of $55 per gram. Sending robots millions of kilometers away to mine and process ore from asteroids in weightless conditions or towing asteroids closer to Earth will require technology that does not currently exist [16]. Platinum is not everything (see also further on raw materials). Space, in addition to extremely hostile conditions for humans (temp. -270°C, no atmosphere, gravity, strong cosmic radiation), can offer shortly significant opportunities for development and a virtually inexhaustible source of energy and raw materials so necessary for modern economies and the socio-economic development of the human population, which is currently over 7 billion people (according to fairly conservative analyses by demographers, the population will increase to about 9-10 billion by the end of this century). Unfortunately, the current problem with obtaining energy comes down to the need to burn fossil fuels or use devices that draw energy from renewable sources (hydroelectric power plants, wind farms, solar farms), which unfortunately is associated with a large degree of interference in
ecosystems. These technologies, moreover, require huge investments or are still unfortunately associated with the possibility of radioactive or chemical contamination. In response to this, the concept of building solar power plants in space seems to be an interesting solution, for several reasons. Firstly, the force of insolation outside the Earth's atmosphere is approx. Firstly, the force of insolation outside the Earth's atmosphere is about 8-10 times greater, and in addition, lasts for 24 Earth hours. Secondly, there is the possibility of long-distance energy delivery in the form of microwaves to practically any place (the cost of building the receiving station is relatively small), e.g., to areas where it is difficult to build classical power plants - Africa, the Arctic, and Antarctic regions, etc. As a result of using this solution, depending on the demand now, it is possible to direct the antenna of a satellite solar power plant practically to any place on Earth. No "classical" power plant has such mobility - even the floating nuclear power plants proposed by the Russians are not capable of delivering energy within a few hours to places tens of thousands of kilometers away, both on land and at sea [4].
Is there anything else besides energy that can be imported to Earth from space? The answer will again be yes - mineral resources. The concept of space mining is quite old but has never taken a real shape due to huge costs and technological limitations, remaining more in the domain of scientists and futurists than businessmen [4].
This is all an incentive for businessmen. Elon Musk, the founder of PayPal, Tesla Motors, and SpaceX, has already made quite a fortune and is putting a significant portion of it toward his space program. A new rocket called Falcon Heavy, which SpaceX is working on, will be capable of carrying twice the payload of the space shuttle into orbit, at five times the cost. Its goal is to reduce the cost of launching a rocket to between $45 and $25 per kilogram of payload. He intends to achieve this by creating reusable rockets. It's very difficult, many people think it's impossible, but I'm of a different opinion - says E. Musk. If airplanes had to be thrown away after every flight, no one would be able to afford to fly. For E. Musk it is part of a larger plan: to create a permanent colony on Mars. NASA has had great success exploring Mars using unmanned rovers, such as Curiosity recently, followed by manned flights. E. Musk believes SpaceX will be able to deliver astronauts to Mars within 20 years - and then keep them there for decades. E. Musk points out, however, that: The thing is, for such an undertaking, it's not enough to send one small mission to Mars. It's about transporting millions of people and mil-
lions of tons of equipment to create a colony there capable of independent existence. This is the most difficult challenge humanity has faced to date, and it is by no means certain that it will be met. I would like to emphasize that this is not about escaping from Earth. This is about developing life on an interplanetary scale. About reaching the stars [16; 33]. Confirmation that history is happening before our eyes is, for example, the first non-governmental manned flight, with a completely private crew, to low Earth orbit. The event took place in September 2021 and was made possible by the SpaceX Inspiration mission, which enabled four amateur astronauts to make a full-scale space flight in a Crew Dragon capsule. According to the organizers, the mission is to set new trends in the field of still exotic space tourism and promote noble ideas and charitable activities, bringing the matter of manned space expeditions closer to the general international community [33].
Thus, we can observe that we look at the exploration of the Cosmos, in a way, from the perspective of two reasons: first - safety and economics; second -although it sounds banal - out of curiosity. Space flights are needed as a source of knowledge about where we came from and how this blue oasis of our life on the cosmic desert was created, what is the structure and history of the Universe. These are all obvious truths. As mentioned, there are concepts of obtaining valuable metallic minerals from asteroids, but although the negligible gravity on these celestial bodies would facilitate the transport of the material to Earth - it is still a prospect that is unattainable on an industrial scale at the current level of technology development and, most importantly, not economically viable. Thus, it appears that the most important benefit we can expect from further implementation of space programs beyond the maintenance of Earth satellites is the expansion of scientific knowledge about the world in which we live [8].
However, how can we conquer the Cosmos when the fastest space vehicle ever built - the Helios 2 probe, launched in 1976 to monitor the Sun - reached a speed of 253,000 kilometers per hour, which means that moving at that speed towards Proxima Centauri - the closest star in the vicinity of the Sun, located at 40 trillion kilometers - it would reach its destination after 17 thousand years?... This is one reason why a manned interstellar flight may forever remain the domain of science fiction. But for some researchers, the prospect of being forever trapped on two small planets in the face of the vastness of our Galaxy is too depressing. "If we start now, and we have just started, I'm convinced we can begin interstellar exploration within 100 years", says Andreas Tziolas, physicist and head
of Icarus Interstellar, a nonprofit organization with the goal of "making the interstellar flight a reality by 2100". Tziolas believes it is possible to build a starfighter engine that would rely on nuclear fusion, the process that gives stars and thermonuclear bombs their energy. When the nuclei of light elements, such as hydrogen, enormous amounts of energy are released, far more than when the nuclei of heavy atoms, such as uranium which is the energy source of today's nuclear power plants, and the old NERVA engine (Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Application - a US rocket program carried out since the early 1960s and designed to use nuclear thermal propulsion), fission. Unfortunately, while physicists have built many fusion reactors, there has yet to produce, more energy than it consumes. "I believe in our ingenuity", says A. Tziolas [3, pp. 22-30; 16].
This does not mean that one should stop dreaming as well as exploring - in the scientific sense. After all, scientific revolutions almost by definition defy common sense. If all our common-sense ideas about the Universe were correct, science would have discovered its secrets thousands of years ago. However, the goal of science is to discard the phenomenal layer of objects and learn about their nature. If appearance and essence were the same things, science would prove unnecessary [14, p. 9]. «Moreover, it should be noted that the reality in which we live is radically changing. History requires supplementing general knowledge with new information about new epochs. Thus, general knowledge has little usefulness, itself must be saturated with new information. Thus, new knowledge - concrete, historical knowledge must be considered to make further predictions» [9, pp. 4748; 15, pp. 175-188; 21]. As a well-known Polish political scientist Professor A. Chodubski pointed out: predicting the future is an important research challenge. It is dictated both by the theory and practice of life, especially by the need to prepare human action for the changing realities of socio-economic and political life. Visions of the future are an important stimulus activating each entity striving to realize certain goals, aspirations; they allow us to analyze contemporary reality not only concretely and objectively with a view to the present but first to the nearer and farther time horizon. «In his opinion, scientific forecasting is always associated with the analysis of a specific reality, the components of which are:
1. Revealing outlining and occurring regularities of development;
2. Determining important qualitative factors, shaping regularities of development of international relations;
3. Estimating conditions and assumptions of further development;
4. Formulating bold yet realistic for the realization of future goals.
Analyses should be carried out comprehensively, i.e., should indicate the phenomena, dependencies, connections, couplings, interactions, etc.» [7]. «The starting point in forecasting is usually experienced, observation, common sense, intuition, and authority. These components cannot be overestimated or underestimated. An important consideration in this regard is trust and suspicion. This includes suspicion of established research methods. This does not mean, of course, that they should be ignored, but maintaining scientific skepticism, in this case, is desirable» [7]. This corresponds well with the opinion of Michio Kaku [10], who notes that: predicting the future is a task beyond the power of a single human being. The scope of human knowledge is simply too wide. Most predictions about science have proven wrong precisely because they reflect only the individual point of view of their makers [9, p. 50; 13, p. 9].
There is no doubt that in the 21st century, as the limits of our knowledge expand, we will witness a huge number of astonishing, often groundbreaking discoveries related to space exploration [13, p. 411]. According to M. Kaku, considerations of space colonization are not just speculation or wishful thinking. The settlement nation-states of new planets relate to the survival of the human species. The Earth is in the middle of the cosmic shooting target. Within the next thousands or millions of years, it will inevitably be hit by some large meteorite or comet or suffer some other catastrophe that will nearly destroy life. This means, as an American futurologist predicts, that one day our species will have to find a place in space where it can live, or else it will die [13, p. 412].
In a similar vein, French astronaut Jean-Francois Clervoy speaks about the fragility of the Earth: The view of the Earth from space evokes tears of emotion, makes a huge impression. Never, except for the birth of my child, have I experienced anything more moving. The earth as seen from space is beautiful. At the same time, looking at it, the astronaut realizes how fragile the existence of people on Earth is [2; 11; 12].
«It is impossible not to recall here the famous words of Carl Sagan - American astronomer and popularizer of science, a pioneer in the field of exobiology» [6]. «Until the first picture of the Earth from the Moon circulated the world in 1968, we were not fully aware of how small we are. Then we saw the Earth from Saturn and the scientist appealed to us: Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic
doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every „superstar", every „supreme leader', every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there - on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam. The Earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that, in glory and triumph, they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot. Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of this pixel on the scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner, how frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to kill one another, how fervent their hatreds. Our posturing's, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the Universe, are challenged by this point of pale light. Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. The Earth is the only world known so far to harbor life. There is nowhere else, at least soon, to which our species could migrate. Visit, yes. Settle, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand. It has been said that astronomy is a humbling and character-building experience. There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal kindlier with one another, and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known» [17; 25].
M. Kaku predicts that by the end of the twenty-first century there will be distinct pressures, both social and political, and economic, under the influence of which an interplanetary civilization based on the global economy will emerge. Of course, the ruling elites, jealously guarding their influence, will pile up numerous obstacles. They may still block the emergence of such a civilization on Earth for much of the 22nd century. However, as each decade passes, the importance of the former ruling elites will be eroded by the social and economic forces created by the scientific revolutions [13, p. 459]. The greatest obstacle to the emergence of a planetary, and later an interplanetary, civilization is, as M. Kaku brutally but correctly points out, the division of political power among envious nations. We are living in the era of nation-states, which will also include the entire 21st century. «However, we sometimes forget that nation-states appeared on the stage of history relatively recently. They gripped the industrial revolution and the developing
capitalism and grew with them. But... states do not last forever» [13, p. 464]. It is a pity, however, that presenting oneself in the category - I am a man first, and only then, possibly, indicating one's gender, nationality, religion, etc., has grown into a contemporary heroism, in order not to be accused of lack of patriotism... Is this what tribalism, which preceded the emergence of this planetary civilization, was all about.
Throughout almost all human history as attested in written accounts, narrow political elites have, often brutally, ruled large masses of poor people. Only a small group of chosen few had access to education, knowledge, and military power -elements for maintaining power [13, p. 466]. «Especially in the context of wars, one would like to believe that people will finally understand the words of George Orwell from the book "1984": The present war - if it is measured by the old tests -is a mere deception. It could be compared to a fight between two bulls whose horns would be set at such an angle that neither could injure the other. But even though the present war is a fraud, it is not insignificant. For it absorbs the surplus of consumer goods and creates the psychic atmosphere which is an indispensable condition for maintaining the hierarchical structure of society» [23, p. 206]. One would like to believe that...
«It is already almost a truism to say that ruling elites act mainly to consolidate their influence. In planetary civilization, no such criterion exists. Although currently, the ruling elites will oppose the unification processes, are a certain unifying mechanism will be triggered. For M. Kaku, that glue is to be a relatively new, but perhaps extremely powerful force - the international middle class. With its development, the power of the ruling elites weakens» [13, p. 466]. Unfortunately, and I emphasize emphatically, unfortunately - looking at the progressive stratification [29] and at the fact that in some countries the middle class - yes, aspires, but also thinks coolly about how much it can lose because of the clash with the establishment - the emergence of such a planetary/interplanetary civilization may be postponed for centuries. But that it will come, it is certain.
One may wonder whether the beginning of the twenty-first century is the beginning of the commercial conquest of space. Everything seems to indicate this, as the activity of private companies seeking to profit from the exploitation of space has been growing exponentially in recent years. Space exploration is no longer a dream of eccentric science-fiction visionaries but is becoming more and more real. This is due to several factors - the development of material technologies, information systems, nation-states, and the increase in computing power,
but also to a reduction in the cost of manufacturing elements necessary to build launchers, i.e., rockets, aircraft, etc. One of the more important factors is the shrinking resources of raw materials on our planet, as well as the growing awareness of scientists and businessmen in this matter. While a few decades ago space flight was a pioneering endeavor requiring huge financial outlays from two conflicting political, military, and economic blocs and success was mainly propaganda and military, today, in the post-Cold War era, the main aspect of space exploration has become more scientific than military. Space is an extraordinary reservoir of energy and raw materials that can drastically change the current geopolitical situation in the world. The countries that will support this new innovative industry will certainly provide incredible development opportunities for their citizens in the 21st century [4].
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