CC BY
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Евразийский Союз Ученых (ЕСУ) # 10 (67), 2019
13
UDC: 339.138: 338.24 (575.1)_
SCIENTIFIC AND METHODOLOGICAL BASES OF INDICATIVE PLANNING OF SECURITY OF
FOOD PRODUCTS OF THE POPULATION
Yusupov Erkin Djuraevich
© D.Sc., professor, Tashkent state agrarian institute, Tashkent city, Republic of Uzbekistan Kuvnakov Haydar Qosimovich
©Ph.D. Associate professor, Tashkent state agrarian institute, Tashkent city, Republic of Uzbekistan
НАУЧНО-МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЕ ОСНОВЫ ИНДИКАТИВНОГО ПЛАНИРОВАНИЯ ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННЫМИ ПРОДУКТАМИ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ
Юсупов Эркин Джураевич
© Д.э.н., профессор, Ташкентский государственный аграрный институт, г.Ташкент, Республика Узбекистан Кувнаков Хайдар Косимович ©К.э.н., доцент,
Ташкентский государственный аграрный институт, г.Ташкент, Республика Узбекистан
ABSTRACT
In this article it is viewed as theoretical - methodical based of indicative plan for regulation national economy by government and its necessity. One of the major components of population well-being standard is consumer goods. In the paper also viewed uses of economical-mathematical models to indicative plan of consumer goods. In the article, mathematical models of indicative planning in consumer market have been used
АННОТАЦИЯ
В данной статье обсуждены вопросы индикативного планирования обеспечения продовольственными продуктами населения в потребительском рынке, рассмотрены научно-методические основы индикативного планирование и её роль в регулировании национальной экономики со стороны государства.
Keywords: market of consumer goods, security of consumer goods, indicative plan, level of demand in consumer market.
Ключевые слова: потребительский рынок, безопасность продуктов питания, индикативное планирование, аграрная политика, спрос на продукты питания.
Introduction
In the market economy, indicative plans are replaced by indicative planning, which does not contradict the market and market mechanisms, but allows choosing the optimal production paths, timely provision of resources, utilizing untapped resources and opportunities, maximizing competitive advantage and minimizing various risks. gives. At the same time, the responsibility for making decisions on development of production lies with the local authorities, expanding the rights of economic entities.
Uzbekistan has vast resources for agricultural food production and its export potential. At present, the world food market is seeing a rise in prices for cereals and other consumer goods. This, in turn, puts the agricultural sector in Uzbekistan as the main task to increase food production and to provide the country's population with these products.
Methodological aspects of , indicative planning were studied by scientists as well as Berkinov B.B., E.A. Yarmalik, Kuvnakov H.Q.[4]. Features of the development of the textile industry in Uzbekistan were studied by domestic scientists as professor N. Yuldashev. [11], Khakimov Z.A. [8,9], Tursunov B.O.
[5,7,10], Krivyakin K.S. [9], and marketing aspects by professor Ergashkhodzhaeva ShJ. and others [8].
In these conditions, ensuring the domestic consumer market with sustainable and reliable domestic products, increasing food production, expanding its range and improving the quality is of paramount importance in Uzbekistan. Notwithstanding the annual growth of the population of Uzbekistan, in 2015 our country was recognized as one of the 14 countries awarded by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals in food security. This was achieved through agricultural activities.
Analysis shows that as a result of effective use of agricultural land in Uzbekistan, production in the sector is increasing year by year, from 34201.4 billion soums in 2013 to 36,957 billion soums in 2014, or 108. 0% [2].
The main goal of the agrarian food policy of the country is to ensure a balance between the growing solvency of the population and the volume of domestic food products produced by domestic enterprises, expanding the range of products and reliably saturating
our markets. The well-being of the population depends to a great extent on the availability of food.
In improving the living standards of the population in the Republic of Uzbekistan, first of all, we can see a great attention paid to the health of the population. This is because food consumption directly affects the health of people and nations. Poor nutrition undermines human health and results in huge economic costs to society. Numerous studies indicate that malnutrition has hampered many countries' economic development. FAO studies on nutrition and economic growth show that a 1% increase in protein consumption will lead to a 0.49% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) over the long term. An annual GDP increase of one percent will double the income of the population for 72 years, and a two percent increase in 36 years. The importance of nutrition in economic development is invaluable [1].
As can be seen from the above diagram we can see that the share of payments for services is low, although foodstuffs are the main component of the population's consumption expenditures. Disability as a result of nonproductive consumption of the population has negative consequences such as reduced life expectancy.
Due to the gradual reforms implemented in the agricultural sector during the years of independence, much attention is paid to the increase in agricultural production, which is the main basis of food security in the country. In particular, large-scale and well-thought-out work on optimization of sown areas, introduction of new and advanced technologies in production, improvement of crop varieties and livestock breeding, radical improvement of seed-breeding work was carried out. As a result, the demand of the population of the country for foodstuffs has been met by means of domestic resources, and most importantly, the country's food security has been achieved.
If we analyze the current level of provision of the population of Uzbekistan with food products, if per capita consumption in 1991 was 42.6%, grapes 93.8%, potatoes 29.8%. By 2012 this figure was 119.7% in fruit, 156.3% in grapes, 229.2% in vegetables, 135.4% in potatoes and 245.1% in melons. Consumption of basic animal products is also steadily increasing. In particular, per capita meat production (slaughtered weight) in 2012 was 36.7 kg (91.8% of demand), milk - 247.5 kg (176.8% of demand), and eggs - 131 units. and 108.4% of the total [1].
This has changed in the years of independence, especially in agriculture and livestock production. "The agricultural sector has also developed rapidly, such as fruits and vegetables, horticulture, viticulture and livestock production. 12 million 592 thousand tons of vegetables and potatoes, 1 million 850 thousand tons of melons, 1 million 556 thousand tons of grapes and 2 million 731 thousand tons of fruits were produced last year. "
The analysis shows that the share of the industry in GDP decreased from 30.1% in 2000 to 17.2% in 2014. However, the decline in GDP has not had a negative impact on food availability. At present, the food consumed by the population in Uzbekistan complies with the norms established by the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Such positive
results in the provision of the population with foodstuffs have been achieved due to the attention given to improving the living conditions and improving the living standards of the population in Uzbekistan.
At the same time, there is a need to change the concept of planning food production increase and the forms of management of the food industry in the conditions of water scarcity in the country.
Implementation of reforms and deepening structural reforms in the agricultural sector of the rural areas will play an important role in this task. This is because most of the agricultural producers, manufacturing and processing companies, as well as organizations that provide logistics and services are located there.
However, due to the variety of natural and economic conditions, disparity in production, monopoly position of processing and service enterprises, loss and income instability, the difficulty in investing in the agrarian sector, the need to address the economic, social and environmental problems of the regions. and in particular the need for rural planning and management.
Thus, with the transition to market relations, the role of planning becomes more important in the context of complex interactions between all participants in the production process. At the same time, it is necessary to use the forms and methods of economic relations between the state and economic entities that meet the new conditions.
In the market economy, indicative planning is replaced by indicative planning, with local governments taking the responsibility for making decisions on the development of production, expanding the rights of business entities. [4].
Indicative planning in the market economy should include the forecasting of agricultural sector development as an element of production regulation, the calculation of natural production balances, the formation of the budget and the functioning of its entire infrastructure.
At the same time, indicative planning does not contradict the market and market mechanisms, but allows to choose the optimal production paths, timely provision of resources, utilize unused resources and opportunities, maximize the competitive advantages and reduce the various risks [4].
The more the reasonableness of the indicative plan is based on the market requirements and the competition, the higher its validity and economic relevance. This allows evaluating possible socioeconomic conditions and selecting alternative solutions.
Therefore, the measures taken to optimize the area under cotton production in the country should not have a negative impact on the efficiency of agricultural production. At the same time, in case of changes in the world food market situation, food security can be solved through the implementation of indicative planning in the country, which corresponds to the market mechanism.
In order to understand the difference between indicative planning and directive planning, the
methodological principle underpinning the rural administrative district research is as follows:
It operates as a single interconnected complex of all agricultural enterprises and management units. This means that the incomes of the population are the basis of solvent demand, and the process of meeting their food needs depends on the financial activities of all participants.
Market and its mechanisms In this case, the indicative planning is organized at two levels; The actual output of goods, the volume of production of goods per capita, the degree of differentiation of this indicator are determined by the actual production capacity of commodity products on the basis of district and individual economic entities as a whole.
In this regard, a systematic approach is being used to investigate the food supply of the administrative district, which includes the coordination of all processes from the product to the consumer. Different
forms of management require analysis of multiple supply options, finding the location of each business entity, specifying its size and order. All these questions can be answered using economic and mathematical methods.
The economic and mathematical model of justifying the structure, structure and directions of development of the Agro-industrial Complex (ASM) of the administrative district includes a system of variables that reflect the process of production, distribution, sharing and consumption using linear equations. The details of the Economic Mathematical Model (IMM) variables depend on the need and degree of completeness of reflecting the following features: district population; demand for agricultural products; Classification of resources for consuming the product range. The mathematical structure of the Economic Mathematical Model (IMM) in terms of food supply is shown in Figure 1.
Agriculture Population
Manufacturers of goods Male Female
;
i_t
Agricultural Farms peasant Others
enterprises
i
Children were 17, 17-55 > 55 > 60
Production of commodity types
Supply
Types of goods
HE
CONNECTED BLOCK
Fig.1.Structure of the food supply matrix
The 'Agriculture' block is represented by a set of variables and constraints, which represents the possibilities of agricultural production in the form of ownership and management.
Producers are agricultural enterprises, dehkan farms and farms.
Second block of "Population" - territorial symbol (city, village); age (children and adolescents, able-bodied population, pensioners); occupational specialties (employees of agriculture, industry, trade, education); as indicated by the variables describing the composition of income (low, medium, high).
The third supply block is a reflection of the need for food to meet the needs of the local population and the mandatory supply of food to the state and local funds.
The proposed classification of the population is based on the principles of market economy, especially the adequacy of supply and demand. In directive planning, if the demand is determined by population size and consumption patterns, the market system is set by the level of income that has a multipurpose function.
The basis for calculating the value of the minimum consumer budget for working age groups by population groups is based on the sex-age groups of population, recalculated by the existing budgetary coefficients. Determining demand for food is a standardized way of compiling a food index.
In the district, there are several ways in which to provide the population with food planning -physiological norms for nutrition Physiologically healthy eating budgets. The demand for products is covered by the local producers' market and the import of missing products. Excess goods and raw materials are sold outside the district.
The proposed structure of the Economic Mathematical Model (IMM) was driven by the need to establish production ratios by forms of management, on the one hand, and on the other, to meet the needs of the population, taking into account their real income.
The overall level of production in the district is an important criterion for justifying the development of the Agro-Industrial Complex (ACM) by forms of management. This will be achieved through optimization and development of sectors that provide
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Евразийский Союз Ученых (ЕСУ) #10 (67), 2019
access to land, labor and material and technical resources within the financial and lending capacity of commodity producers.
In this regard, it is necessary to determine the ratios of the sector, then the regional, and to make more precise the regional ratios of agriculture.
Effective, key and supporting indicators of agricultural development are used to develop regional-sector ratios. Outcome indicators include productivity, productivity, gross output. Key indicators are indicators reflecting the absolute limitation of the scarce resources available to the network - land and financial resources. Supply indicators reflect the status of interconnected industries, for example, fertilizer inputs, as the cost of basic resources per unit of output and actual performance indicators depend on them.
In this regard, the model uses the following technology to develop indicative agricultural development plans: to determine the output by types of products based on the demand market. After that the indicators of animal productivity and crop yields and their consumption of feed and material and technical resources are allocated. In accordance with possible productivity and productivity, the number and composition of cultivated areas of each species are projected and the need for logistical resources is formed.
The options for agricultural sector development planning reflect the objective conditions of farming, based on the maximum possible accounting of natural conditions and the emerging specialization of the agro-food industry. This will allow for a comprehensive use of the total resource potential to achieve maximum agricultural output, based on the needs of the district's population.
It should be noted that in the market economy, great attention should be paid to the method of planning. This method defines the maximum and minimum limits for the use of resources.
We believe that small private enterprises that specialize in the production, storage and processing of foodstuffs, including livestock and fruit and vegetables, for the needs of the population for the further development of the sector through the further expansion of food production and modernization of agrarian production in Uzbekistan. equipment,
commissioning of raw materials, modernization of existing enterprises, export of wet fruits and vegetables and finished products It is necessary to develop a system of incentives for the third parties in line with market relations of the state economic support.
References
1. Food Security in Uzbekistan, United Nations Development Program Report, Tashkent 2010, p.
2. Agriculture of Uzbekistan. Statistical Collection. Tashkent 2015, p.
3. Agriculture of Uzbekistan. Statistical Collection. Tashkent 2015, p.
4. Berkinov B.B., E.A. Yarmalik, Kuvnakov H.Q. Indicative planning. Textbook. -T .: TSIU, 2011. - 197 p.
5. T.B.Ortikmirzaevich. Principle and functions of management of production capacity. Journal of process management. New technologies 5 (4), 61-68, 2017.
6.Турсунов, Б. О., Кривякин, К. С., & Хакимов, З. А. (2018). МЕТОДИКА ОЦЕНКИ КОНКУРЕНТОСПОСОБНОСТИ ПРОДУКЦИИ ТЕКСТИЛЬНЫХ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЙ. Науковий вюник Полюся, 2(2 (14)), 71-77.
7.Tursunov, B. (2017). Role of Managing Industrial Stocks in Increasing of Textile Enterprises Capacity. Journal of Applied Management and Investments, 6(4), 260-266.
8.S.J. Ergashxodjaeva, K.S.Kyvyakin, B.O.Tursunov, H.Z.Ahmadovich. Evaluation of textile and clothing industry clustering capabilities in Uzbekistan: based on model of M.Porter. Int J Econ Manag Sci 7 (439), 2, 2018.
9.K.Kryvyakin, B.Tursunov, Z.Hakimov. Estimation methodology of efficiency of production capacity management at textile enterprises. Бюллетень науки и практики 4 (1), 228-241, 2018.
10.Tursunov, B. (2017). Ways of increasing the efficiency of usage production capacity of textile enterprises. Бюллетень науки и практики 8, 232-242, 2017.
11.N.Yuldoshev, Tursunov B, S.Qozoqov. Use of artificial intelligence methods in operational planning of textile production. Journal of process management. New technologies 6 (2), 260-266, 2017.
