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8. Half of the Dagestan youth want to develop the Islamic Republic Sultanate. URL: http://www.comrelig.ru/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=206&Item id=30 (Reference date of 22.04.2013.)
9. L. Syukiyaynen. Musulmane I gosudarstvo [Muslims and the state] // Rossiya I musulmansky mir.1997. № 6. - P. 22.
10. See: E.Suslova. Tolerantnost I religioznost sovremennogo obschestva. Problemy I paradoksy. [Tolerance and religion in modern society. Problems and paradoxes]. URL: http://www.rusoir.ru/news/23-09-2005-4.html (Reference date: 11. 03. 2015)
11. See: V. Avyutsky. Severnyy Kavkaz kak "Vnutrennee Zarubezhe" Russia [North Caucasus as "internal abroad of Russia] //Tsentralnaya Aziya I Kavkaz. 2002. № 5 (23). - P. 77.
12. Islamskaya tematika v svetskih I islamskih SMI Dagestana. [Islamic themes in secular and Islamic media of Dagestan.] Vol. 3. URL: http://dargo.ru/publ/3-1-0-8 (Circulation date 21.05.2013.)
13. See.: Z. Abdulagatov. Problemy I tendentsii stanovleniya sovremennyh gosudarstvenno-konfessionalnyh otnosheniy v Rossii (na primere pravoslaviya I islama). [Problems and tendencies of modern church-state relations in Russia (for example, Christianity and Islam).] - Makhachkala IIAE DSC RAS, 2006, p. 49.
"2 Bigievskie chteniya. Musulmanskaya mysl v 21veke: edinstvo traditsii I obnovleniy". (Materialy 2 Mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-obrazovatelnoy konferentsii, St. Petersburg, 17-20 May 2015),
Moscow, 2016, pp. 260-271.
S. Kamenev,
Ph. D. (Economics), Head of the Sector of Pakistan, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences
RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND PAKISTAN: YESTERDAY, TODAY AND TOMORROW
Expansion of multi-level contacts between Russia and Pakistan since April 2014 and above all - conclusion of various commercial deals in military and energy fields - have forced a number of political analysts speak about a major breakthrough in bilateral relations. This
statement is true to some extent, taking into account the weak advance in this direction during the past 15 years.
We do not intend to delve into the background of bilateral relations. But it is advisable to mention the major milestones of their extraordinary development over the past 15 years, because such steps have identified the expansion of our bilateral relations to a great extent in the last two years, have become a base for their accelerated growth.
It should be emphasized that Pakistan with a population of nearly 210 million people (but not 192 million, according to Pakistani officials demographers [20. P. 199]1) occupies an important geopolitical and military-strategic position in the South Asian and Central Asian regions, its considerable nuclear arsenal is about 120 nuclear warheads, according to estimates of the Stimson Center and the Carnegie Foundation in 2015 (India has about 100 warheads, according to information from the same source), as well as means of their delivery [16]. The assumption that Pakistan intends to increase rapidly its nuclear ammunition in the future (expressed by experts of the referred Center) is a lot of doubt, and the basis for them are objective reasons -lack of economic potential of the country and the need to get out of an extremely serious energy crisis, which requires advancing development of nuclear energy, not nuclear capacity building.
In addition, the IMF and the World Bank strictly require to give priority to the solution of energy problems in the development of the national economy, from the Government of Pakistan is really possible only through the construction of new and modernization of existing nuclear power plants now, since the possibility of a significant expansion of energy capacity through thermal power plants and hydropower plants is rather limited due to various reasons. Moreover, these international financial institutions are responsible for providing economic assistance through the overcoming of the energy crisis.
The visit of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to Moscow in February 2003, has not led to a significant expansion of bilateral ties, although agreements and memorandums of understanding on a number of directions - in the area of trade, the fight against drug business and drug trafficking, humanitarian and cultural spheres - were signed. The visit of Prime Minister of the Russian Government Mikhail Fradkov in Pakistan in April 2007 proved to be even less productive. Then a program of exchanges in culture, science and education in 20072009, and a few Memorandums of Understanding with the Russian Railways, the Association of "KAMAZ", and co-production of fertilizers, as well as some others have been signed. Previous agreement on cooperation in the fight against illicit traffic in narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances and their abuse was extended for another 10 years.
Some real success in expanding the bilateral cooperation has been achieved since 2009, as part of the annual quadripartite summit (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikhistan), during which the bilateral meetings between the two leaders were held. The leaders of Russia and Pakistan have discussed not only the traditional cooperation, but also the possible participation of the Russian Federation in a number of large-scale international projects in the course of these meetings. There are CASA-1000 (the supply of electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan through Afghanistan to Pakistan) and TAPI (gas supply from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan and possibly further - to India) among them.
Returning to the quadripartite summits, it should be noted that the failed fourth in a row Summit in Islamabad in October 2012 (it was canceled due to the cancellation of the visit of the Russian President) virtually put an end to the possibility of holding bilateral meetings at the highest level. As a result, the cooperation between our two countries
has remained at the same relatively low level throughout the year and a half.
However, the Ukrainian crisis (which began in the spring of 2014), the Crimea joining Russia (which once required considerable funds from the Russian budget on its socio-economic development), fighting in the Donbass, and - most importantly - the imposition of severe sanctions against Russia by the Western countries, forced Moscow pay much more attention to Asian countries. This included a significant expansion of multilateral cooperation with them, as well as the military (mainly the sale of arms and military equipment) in the first place. Pakistan was no exception; so has been withdrawn unofficial ban on military-technical cooperation between Russia and Pakistan. It is noteworthy that the Ukrainian crisis has brought some trouble to Pakistan indirectly, because the U.S. cut economic aid to the country to $ 10 million in March 2014. In general, it was $ 1.5 billion per year and allocated in accordance with the previous decision of the Kerry-Lugar bill-Berman. Washington has sent these funds to support the economy of Ukraine.
Anti-submarine ship, "Admiral Shaposhnikov", visited a base of the Pakistani Naval Forces in Karachi for the first time in the history of Russian-Pakistani relations in April 2014. There were held joint military exercises at sea to combat piracy. Later, similar naval exercises were held with the participation of the patrol ship "Yaroslav the Wise" of the Baltic Fleet for developing cooperation in the fight against piracy and drug trafficking in the Arabian Sea. The visit of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to Pakistan in November 2015 and the signing of a framework agreement on cooperation in the military sphere has become an important event in the development of bilateral relations. Negotiations on the purchase of several attack helicopters Mi-35M has simultaneously conducted, which were successfully concluded with the
signing of the Agreement for the sale of the four attack helicopters of that type.
However, the most important step in the expansion of Russian-Pakistani cooperation was the signing of the Agreement of 16 October 2015 on the construction of a gas pipeline in Pakistan from Karachi to Lahore length of 1,100 kilometers, the bandwidth of 12.4 billion cubic meters of gas per year and an estimated value of $ 2-2.5 billion.
It should be noted that the signing of this Agreement has occurred a few days before the official visit of Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif in the U.S. Perhaps it was a coincidence, but it is possible, that Islamabad sought to emphasize diversification of their economic (and political) relations in the international arena, in particular, their expansion to Russia. Russia has to pay more attention to Asia, including Pakistan in the current difficult political and economic situation inside the country and abroad. Pakistan plays a deep game in the international arena, on its part, balancing between the great powers, not wanting to "put eggs in one basket." And the most important thing - it seeks to solve the pragmatic task of economic development and modernization of its armed forces through procurement of modern weapons, including expanding ties with Russia (where some types of weapons you can buy cheaper than in the U.S., France, Israel).
It is advisable to speak of a gradual process of expansion of Russian-Pakistani relations at various levels. It was virtually frozen in the past 30 years after the commissioning of the Karachinsky metallurgical plant that was built with the help of the Soviet Union in the mid-1980s. Moscow got rid of outdated and obsolete habit to take into account the views of New Delhi with regard to the development of relations with Pakistan, and in the first place - in the sphere of militarytechnical cooperation.
The trade turnover between our countries amounted to $ 400500 million per year in recent years. It should be noted that trade between Pakistan and India reached $ 2.7 billion in recent years, according to official figures. The volume of trade between Pakistan and China and the U.S. are as follows: according to official figures, China trade exceeded $ 10 billion, and with the U.S. reached nearly $ 5.3 billion in 2014/15 [20. R. 143, 148-149]. Oil-producing Middle East countries are the important trading partners of Pakistan, supplying it energy. These figures reflect only the trade relations and military-economic co-operation (in particular, targeted investments), including the U.S. assistance to Pakistan in the fight against terrorism, it is characterized by certain indicators. It is possible to talk about the lack of attention to Pakistan as a potential and a very important political and economic partners from Moscow over the past decades.
We emphasize once again that the United States will remain the main strategic partner of Pakistan in the international arena in the long run, whatever contradictions may arise between them. Beijing could reach a certain competition to Washington (in economic terms), aiming to implement the project of a new "Silk Road", a part of which passes through the territory of Pakistan. This refers to the construction of the so-called "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor" from the port of Gwadar to Kashgar in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region of China, a length of 2.7 thousand kilometers.
Nevertheless, there are some real opportunities to expand our bilateral relations in the short and medium term, as it was discussed at the fourth session of the intergovernmental commission on trade-economic, scientific-technical and cultural cooperation between Russia and Pakistan in Islamabad November 2015. [24].
The gas sector has won one of the first places; it is not only exploring ways to implement the agreement on the construction of a gas
pipeline from Karachi to Lahore, signed in October 2015 [14; 4], but on ("Gazprom"), Russia's offer to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Pakistan2. We emphasize that Russia occupies its own niche in Pakistan's energy system, rather than is competing with Qatar, with which in November 2015, Pakistan ratified the Agreement on the supply of liquefied natural gas for 15 years until 20303.
As for the real possibility of construction of TAPI gas pipeline from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan and further - to India, as well as on implementation of CASA-1000 project, involving the delivery of electricity from the former republics of Central Asia through Afghanistan to Pakistan [13], the main objective obstacle to their implementation is extremely complicated internal political situation in Afghanistan, where a civil war lasts more than one year; where the central government can control only Kabul and its surroundings. It is impossible to carry out the construction and further exploitation of ground power units in such conditions [25].
As for the ceremony of "laying the first stone" of the gas pipeline conducted by the presidents of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India in Ashgabat in mid-December 2015 [16], we should not harbor any illusions about this action. It marked the beginning of construction of the Turkmen section of a length of about 100 kilometers from the gas field Galkinish to the border with Afghanistan. The beginning of the construction of the entire pipeline was not the question, and the cost of its construction has been gradually increased in recent years - from $ 7.6 billion to 10 billion. [26].
Moreover, Russian companies will evidently be included in a single list with the Western companies by the followers of ISIS, Al-Qaeda or militants movement "Taliban" after the bombing of the objects of terrorism "Islamic state" in Syria by the Russian aviation, if the companies will participate in the construction of gas pipeline TAPI.
The Russian side expressed its readiness to participate in the CASA-1000 project, i.e. to supply the Russian electricity to Pakistan on a hypothetical power lines in winter, when electricity generation drops significantly due to the lack of water in the reservoir at the Nurek hydroelectric power station in Tajikistan and Toktogul hydropower plant in Kyrgyzstan. It is not enough even for their own consumption needs in these republics, not to mention the objective impossibility of exports. For all these reasons, the CASA-1000 the economic value of the project is small. Besides, we can not ignore the extremely negative attitude towards the project from Uzbekistan4.
That numerous projects in the energy sector is scheduled to implement and can be implemented in Russia in the near future. Among them is the intention of a number of subsidiaries of "Gazprom" company to conduct exploration of hydrocarbons in the territory of Pakistan, and to further develop their design5. The Russian side expressed its willingness to create new and expand existing refineries, as well as plants for re-gasification of liquefied natural gas. The list can be extended the main thing - the proposed energy projects by the Russian side can actually be implemented and help to overcome the energy crisis in Pakistan.
It is necessary to mention another important, but not a new proposal of Moscow in the context of expansion of bilateral cooperation between our countries - the direct participation of Russia in the modernization of Karachinskiy Metallurgical Plant, built with Soviet assistance and put into operation in mid-1980. Sub-Working Group on Karachinskiy Metallurgical Plant has been created directly, and the interests of "Uralmash" as well as the association "Tyazhpromexport" in conducting relevant modernization work have been fixed. The Pakistani government, for its part, has offered to buy back 26 percent shares in the plant to Russian companies.
The settlement of Pakistani debt of $ 130 million had a certain importance for the further development of bilateral cooperation, which hindered the development of our relations since the Soviet times, and this problem has not been solved for 17 years. Now, the two sides came to an agreement on this issue by reducing the amount of debt to $ 100 million. There is every reason to believe that this step, as well as the identification of new areas of bilateral relations, will increase the volume of trade.
Now almost complete agreement has been reached with the Rosselkhoznadzor to lift the existing restrictions on the delivery of a number of Pakistan food products. Pakistan is willing to supply us with various kinds of meat and fish, to increase the export of fresh fruits and vegetables, dried fruits, nuts and other food products. Deliveries of agricultural products from Pakistan are highly relevant as a result of the sharp deterioration of relations with Turkey, which has become the supplier of food to Russia after the imposition of sanctions by Western countries.
Islamabad is willing not dwell on the reached agreements regarding the purchase of four helicopters Mi-35 and carry on further talk of "purchasing another three dozen helicopters," of this model [12]. In addition, the ability to purchase from the Russian Su-35 is under consideration.
A number of areas of cooperation can be mentioned, most of which can be implemented in the short and medium term. It is a struggle against drug business and piracy activities at sea, the establishment and implementation of direct trade and economic ties with Russian regions and individual cities - Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Udmurtia, Chuvashia, the Mari El Republic, Primorsky Krai, cities of Smolensk, Kostroma, Penza and Chelyabinsk. It is the creation of free trade zones, the supply of Russian civil aircraft "Superjet-100" and the
medium-range MS-21, a joint venture in Pakistan for the production of "Ecobus" buses, enterprises for the production of telecommunications equipment, medical equipment. This joint development in the field of nanotechnology, in the field of education and training, the establishment of direct flights between Moscow and Islamabad, etc.
It is quite possible to establish cooperation in space with the Pakistani organization SUPARCO, which already accumulated some experience, to assist in the construction and modernization of energy facilities. The development of cooperation with the Russian Railways and the union of "KAMAZ" is quite real. Of course, these and other issues can be resolved only with the assistance of relevant experts.
Finally, Russia should not forget about the possibility of bilateral cooperation in the framework of international organizations: the prospects for participation as an observer in the SAARC (South Asian Association for Cooperation). Russia supported the full participation of Pakistan in SCO, and Pakistan welcomed our participation as an observer in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which was also successfully implemented. The U.S., China, Japan, Iran, South Korea, the EU, in addition to the seven countries of South Asia and Afghanistan are part of SAARC as observers and Russia has a real chance to find its niche here.
Speaking about the expansion of bilateral trade and economic, military-technical and humanitarian cooperation, we have not forget, that it should be supported by political contacts and connections to a large extent. Pakistan with its large demographic potential has an important geo-strategic position in the Asian macroregion. The country has access to the southern seas, has nuclear weapons, is at the forefront of the fight against terrorism in the region, has authority and is included in many international organizations. Undoubtedly, the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Pakistan would be extremely important for
the strengthening of bilateral relations. We emphasize that the failed visit of the Russian president in Islamabad on the fourth quadripartite summit (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Russia and Tajikistan) in October 2012, was not formally abolished, but merely "postponed to a later date". [7]
Notes
There is hope that the census of Pakistan, declared more than one year by the government of the country, will be held in the spring of 2016, after 18-year break after the 1998 census. This will give an answer to many demographic questions, including, above all, the question of the country's population, yet occupies the 6th place in the world on this parameter.
It is headed by the Federal Minister of Finance, public revenues, Economics, Statistics and Privatization, Ishaq Dar on the Pakistani side.
The total value of the transaction is estimated at $ 16 billion. As the Minister of Petroleum and Natural Resources of Pakistan Shahid Hakan Abbasi said Pakistan would import 1.5 million tons of LNG from Qatar annually, and the first deliveries were initiated in March 2016.
November 26, 2015, the heads of energy agencies of Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan and Tajikistan signed a "definitive agreement for the implementation of the CASA-1000 project", providing the start of construction of power transmission line in May 2016 and the end of it by 2018. The ability to perform the item of the Agreement, which obliges "the Afghan government to ensure provision of complete security of infrastructure facilities, and created under the project", raises serious doubts. [8]
According to unconfirmed reports, Pakistan has large reserves of shale gas [21].
2
3
4
5
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