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Последние кризисы в Европе: возможные сценарии развития Recent crises in Europe: possible scenarios
Шедько Филипп Сергеевич
Студент 4 курса
Факультет международных отношений и сравнительных политических исследований
СЗИУ РАНХиГС Россия, г. Санкт-Петербург e-mail: philippshedko@mail.ru
Shedko Filipp Sergeevich
Student 4 term
Faculty of International Relations and Comparative Political Studies
NWIMRANEPA Russia, St. Petersburg e-mail: philippshedko@mail.ru
Аннотация.
Научная статья Ф.С. Шедько посвящена проблемам развития ЕС как интеграционного объединения. Большое внимание в статье уделяется анализу трех последних кризисов в ЕС и их влиянию на дальнейшее развитие этого объединения. Актуальность статьи не вызывает сомнений, так как автором представлена взаимосвязь таких сложных и актуальных явлений, как: миграция, Brexit, COVID-19, замедление темпов экономического роста, разнонаправленность и неоднородность политических и идеологических линий национальных государств внутри ЕС. Материал имеет выраженную авторскую линию, так как Ф.С. Шедько не только анализирует научные труды других авторов, но и высказывает свою точку зрения. Автором используется широкий спектр источников: от мнений авторитетных исследователей в области международных отношений до последних докладов международных организаций.
Annotation.
This article by F.S. Shedko is devoted to the problems of the development of the EU as an integration union. Much attention is paid to the analysis of the last three crises in the EU and their influence on the further development of this integration union. The relevance of the article is not in doubt, since the author presents the relationship of such complex and relevant phenomena as: migration, Brexit, COVID-19, the slowdown in economic growth, the multidirectional and heterogeneous political and ideological lines of nation states within the EU. The material has a pronounced author's line, since the author not only analyzes the scientific works of other researches, but also expresses his point of view. The author uses a wide range of sources: from the opinions of authoritative researchers in the field of international relations to the latest reports of international organizations.
Ключевые слова: ЕС, COVID-19, Brexit, миграционный кризис, кризис, Венгрия, интеграция.
Key words: the EU, COVID-19, Brexit, migration crisis, crisis, Hungary, integration.
Throughout its history, mankind has faced many crises and conflicts and the reaction of individual communities and countries has always been different in its speed, effectiveness and consequences. Today we live in a world in which the interdependence of countries is clearly visible. This leads to the fact that the conflict, epidemic or crisis that began at one place on the globe will certainly affect everyone in a certain way.
The European Union is by far the most positive example of state integration. The strong ties that have developed over decades of negotiations have led the European Union to what it is now - a powerful system equipped with strong leverage. But in any system, there are failures, in any system there are cracks and, more importantly, any system, regardless of its success, is criticized and is being tried to improve.
The European Union today, like the UN, has a large staff of «employees» and a powerful system of checks and balances. That is why there are so many cases where the certain law is discussed and adopted in the European Union for 10 years or more. Such a bureaucratic machine, of course, helps to listen to the opinions of all interested parties, but at the same time it is unable to quickly respond to the challenges of the modern world.
Over the past five years, Europe has already experienced three major crises. They are the following: migration crisis, Brexit and crisis caused by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
Although all these crises have completely different nature and causes, the consequences of these crises within the European Union have much in common. This article will analyze the last three major crises mentioned above, assess the crisis response tools within the European Union and give possible scenarios for the development of the European Union as an integration union.
Migration crisis:
According to the opinion of Vera Suvorova who is an expert on migration studies: «In 2015, more than a million migrants and refugees arrived in Europe, thus causing a crisis, because the countries of the European Union were not ready for this scale of resettlement. According to Eurostat, in 2015, 1,255,600 people were registered for the first-time seeking asylum, mainly citizens of Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq». The reason for such an unnaturally large influx of migrants to Europe was, of course, the events of 2011 in Syria, which eventually escalated into a full-scale war. According to Eurostat, the most common countries of asylum in 2017 in Europe were Germany (122,800 people), Italy (83,100 people), France (50,800 people), Greece (27,100 people) and the United Kingdom (18,800) people). 2015 saw a multiple increase in the flow of migrants from the Middle East and Africa therefore the European Commission recognized it as the largest after the Second World War.
The history of migration to the European Union is far from new; there are many studies highlighting this issue. One of such ambitious research is the work of Professor Jef Huysmans. He states that it can be argued that in the 1950s and 1960s immigrants were primarily an extra workforce in most western European countries. In contrast to the present situation in which the question of illegal immigration justifies to a considerable extent the formation of more restrictive migration policies
In the late 1960s and the 1970s immigration was increasingly a subject of public concern. There was a shift from a permissive immigration policy to a control-oriented, restrictive policy. The change to a restrictive regime and the reassertion of state control in the 1970s did not radically change the understanding of immigrants itself, however. Many of them were still categorized in the first place as guest workers. Political rhetoric, however, increasingly linked migration to the destabilization of public order
«However, since the mid-1980s, the focus has changed. Immigration has been increasingly politicized» and securitized. EU policies and media support, often indirectly, expressions of welfare chauvinism and the idea of cultural homogeneity as a stabilizing factor. In the contemporary domestic and European political context, these policies facilitate the creation of migration as a destabilizing or dangerous challenge to west European societies. Thus, Jef Huysmans argues that the issue of migration was already securitized in the mid-1980s. This explains the acute reaction of the EU to 2015 large-scaled migration crisis.
Immediately after the beginning of the crisis, the main stumbling block was the Dublin Regulation within the European Union, according to which the first country in which refugees have requested asylum should solve the problem of refugees. Also, according to this system, the responsibility for the refugee is borne by the country where the application was submitted and the fingerprints were taken.Thus, in 2015-2016, the border countries of the European Union, such as Italy and Greece, suffered the most. Hungary also received a large number of applications. In 2015, the issue of migration was already securitized in the EU, «migration» and its associated labels, such as «foreigner» and «asylumseeker», are
politically powerful signifiers in modern Europe. It is not surprising that due to this perception of migration, there was a split in the single European family.
The countries that suffered from the first wave of migration most of all wanted to resettle migrants as quickly as possible across all EU countries. Countries that were less affected by migration did not want to accept migrants, referring to the Dublin Regulation.
For example, the Visegrad countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) from the very beginning of the crisis were against the Commission's plan of distribution announced in spring of 2015 (which referred to Article 78.3 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU (TFEU), which said that asylum seekers should be distributed in all member States depending on the total population, GNP, unemployment rate, and the number of refugees and asylum applications already accepted by a Member State .
According to Eurostat data, Hungary, along with Germany, had the highest number of asylum applications in the third quarter of 2015. Moreover, the share of the total number of applications in EU countries in Hungary was 26.2%. Hungary has also built «walls» on the border with Croatia and Serbia to curb the flow of migrants. Victor Orban also sued the EU against the system of mandatory quotas for resettlement, which was approved by the Hungarian parliament. FrankWalter Steinmeier reacted to these actions by warning the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia that legal action could be taken against them in matters of resettlement of migrants and cutting subsidies from European funds.
The position of the Visegrad Group countries was as follows: firstly, the voluntary nature of the solidarity of the EU countries should be maintained so that each state can act on its own experience, achievements and resources; secondly, proposals for mandatory and permanent quotas for measures of solidarity are not acceptable. For these countries, in this situation, the support of national voters was more important than European solidarity. Unilateral measures have been taken to regulate migration and close borders .
The most succinct results of attempts to find a single solution are shown by a quote from the work of Olga Potemkina an expert in the Department of European studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences: « in mid -December 2015, the Commission, summing up the results of its activities to resolve the migration crisis, was essentially forced to admit the failure of resettlement plans seeking asylum in all Member States».
To sum it up, the EU was unable to quickly respond to the migration crisis proposed by the world. Over a sufficiently long period of time, we could observe the EU's desire to develop a definite long-term action strategy that would not only be able to overcome the emerging migration crisis, but also create a more effective legal framework for regulating migration processes. The EU has definitely managed to strengthen control over external borders and significantly reduce the number of illegal migrants, however, all experts and researchers agree that the main problem has not been resolved. The main problem caused by migrants is not their influx itself, but the lack of solidarity among the EU countries for the adoption of joint regulation rules. This lack of solidarity among partner countries has led to an uneven burden on individual countries. The European Union faces not only and not so much with the migration crisis, but with the crisis of European integration, which is increasingly threatened by the growth of ultra-right sentiments among the population. As a result, a massive influx of migrants threatens the existence of the Schengen agreement, and contradictions between EU countries on the resettlement of migrants deepen the split in the European Union.
Brexit:
A significant call for eurosceptics to the «door of the United European family» was the referendum in 2016 in the UK, in which 51.9% of Britons voted to leave the EU. Russian Brexit researcher Lutskaya points out that this fact has exposed serious problems and strengthened the uncertain prospects for European integration. Finally, Great Britain left the European Union on January 31, 2020 at 23:00 London time. Now Great Britain remains a part of the Common
Economic Space, but only until the end of 2020. During this time, the UK and the EU should agree on new terms of trade and cooperation.
It is difficult to argue with Lutskaya, who tries to explain the reasons for the UK's exit from the EU: «The failures of a country with EU membership are due to a lack of understanding of the political and integration goals and essence of the EU. This is due to the infringement of national sovereignty. The fact of joining the EU testified that the economic considerations of Britain prevailed over the national model of integration».
This example of the United Kingdom has shown that not all countries are satisfied with EU membership and the only question is how many of such countries are there and how radically their governments are willing to act. Moreover, Brexit has set a precedent for some countries that seek to ensure greater freedom of development outside of EU membership. This opinion is also shared by the authoritative Russian researcher Tatyana Zonova, who writes that «following the decision of the conservative government of Great Britain about Brexit, the question arose on the agenda about the legal consequences of such a step not only for Great Britain itself, but also for other countries with strong Eurosceptic sentiments. In a number of states, in accordance with their constitutions, the decision to withdraw from the European Union can be made by a simple parliamentary majority. The consequences of this step can be very difficult for both a single country and the EU as a whole».
Lutskaya in her turn points out that «disagreements between the EU member states can undermine each other's trust, and on the other hand, it is possible to easily leave the club of countries that disagree with its principles. A more important problem associated with Brexit is the different views of the EU countries on issues of supranational governance and deepening the integration process to develop the monetary union and the EU as a political project». Indeed, we know that a new challenge for the EU is the heterogeneity of the economic club of European countries, because formally there is a camp of EU leaders and a camp of lagging ones.
As we see in the example of the migration crisis of 2015, there are many countries that disagree with certain positions of the European Union. One of these countries is Hungary, which many within the EU have already called «illiberal democracy». Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that he sees the future of Hungary as an «illiberal state». In his interpretation, the «illiberal state» does not reject the values of liberal democracy, but does not accept them as a central element of state organization. This position, of course, contradicts the basic principles of the EU, but so far, the reaction of the European Union remains rather mild. However, this does not mean that the precedent of Great Britain will not serve as an example for countries such as Hungary.
Thus, immediately after the first wave of the migration crisis, the EU saw the country's first exit from the integration association.
Coronavirus crisis:
It is difficult to argue with the opinion of experts Sergei Shein and Julia Timofeeva that the scale of the impact of COVID-19 on the world political system can be considered the third crisis after the September 11 terrorist attack and the 2008 financial crisis. The coronacrisis has a multi-vector and multi-level effect, which will clearly manifest itself over time. Coronacrisis acts as a test for both social and political systems. Moreover, not encouraging reports and forecasts from international organizations are already starting to appear saying that coronavirus has affected almost all spheres of life of the modern state. «The reality is the world will never be the same after the coronavirus and the coronavirus has struck with unprecedented scale and ferocity»- writes Henry Kissinger. The coronavirus crisis, as experts of «Valdai» club write, «is not even a chain of consequences, as in well-known crises, but the shutdown of almost the entire system».
Recently the opinion of the IMF has become widespread, according to which «the crisis after quarantine will be worse than in 2008 - approximately at the level of the Great Depression of the 1930s». Moreover, «after the COVID-19 epidemic, the world could become half a billion more poor» says the report of the international organization Oxfam. The
world's population is about 7.8 billion people, and by the end of the epidemic half of them will live in poverty. This is 400-600 million more than before the epidemic». Also, a recent report by The World Food Program writes that «the world expects a famine of biblical proportions because of an epidemic. The number of people suffering from hunger can increase from 135 million to more than 250 million, said David Beasley, director of the UN World Food Program. About 30 million people may die of starvation in the coming months if the world community does not act. Even before the pandemic in East Africa and South Asia, there was a drought and a record infestation of locusts, and COVID-19 made the crisis even worse. The situation in Afghanistan, Syria, Venezuela, Sudan and several African countries is especially deplorable». Due to the interdependence of the modern world, such consequences will certainly affect all countries. This is confirmed by the words of Joseph Nye Jr: «rich countries should realize that recurrent waves of COVID-19 will affect poorer countries less able to cope and that such a developing-world reservoir will hurt everyone if it spills back northward in a seasonal resurgence»
But the scale of the crisis's impact on Europe is already visible. After the outbreak of a new disease in China, Europe became a new «haven» of the virus, and the number of diseases in the EU countries very soon exceeded the number of those infected in China. At the end of January, delegates from European health ministries assured the European Commission that they did not need assistance in purchasing equipment. The EU soon declared that everything was under control and everyone was ready for an epidemic. Two weeks later, the epidemic erupted in Italy, and the rest of the States realized that the situation was very serious. But instead of working together, most countries have erected trade barriers to prevent equipment from being exported to their neighbors. Brussels announced a tender for the purchase of masks and other protective equipment for 25 countries only at the end of February. Moreover, there have already appeared forecasts that show that the GDP of each country will fall by a few percentage points. Thus, every month, the economy shrinks by 2-3%, said European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos recently.
Thus, according to the reputable journal Foreign Policy, the European Union threw Italy in trouble: at the height of the epidemic, the country was not helped with medicines and equipment. China and Russia came to the rescue. In theory, when an EU member fails to cope with an emergency, other countries in the b loc send help. It worked great two years ago during a forest fire in Sweden. There are a lot of cases in Italy, but there wasn't solidarity from the neighbors of Rome. However, China didn't leave Italy in trouble: just two days after the prime ministers talked, a plane with 31 tons of drugs and intensive care equipment landed in Rome. Besides according to an article in the latest issue of the authoritative magazine The Economist «the pandemic in Europe is not just an economic crisis, as elsewhere in the world, but is fast becoming a political and constitutional crisis, too. This is solvable in principle, but the EU's members cannot agree on what is needed to make their union more resilient, nor on how to bring about reform».
«The Declaration of unity of the EU member States turned out to be a fiction. All the member States of the Union forgot about each other, each separately declared war on the coronavirus, closed for quarantine and forgot about the Schengen code» writes an expert of the Russian International Affairs Council Christiana Denisenko. The latest (may, 2020) report of the «Valdai» international discussion club confirms this by writing that «in the shock conditions, solidarity in the European Union was called into question, and the «common values» that were so widely discussed in various forums went into the shade - when a truly serious crisis broke out, international humanitarian issues almost disappeared from the agenda for a while». The disappointment in the European Union has come not only in Italy. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said that «European solidarity does not exist» when the EU restricted the export of medical equipment to countries outside the bloc. Vucic says he will have to ask China for help». Henry Kissinger states that «the pandemic has prompted an anachronism, a revival of the walled city in an age when prosperity depends on global trade and movement of people».
Christiana Denisenko shares the same point of view. The value of collective solidarity in the EU was called into question, and the EU administration, renewed in December 2019, was not ready for so many complex tasks .
Many media and reputable magazines have stated that a lot of countries are not coping with the epidemic. This is confirmed by numerous articles on the lack of places in hospitals. , morgues , lack of care for the elderly , etc. Henry Kissinger draws our attention to the fact that «Medical supplies are insufficient to cope with the widening waves of cases. Intensive-care units are on the verge, and beyond, of being overwhelmed».
The lack of attention to the topic of coronavirus is due to the fact that in the EU, the health sector is regulated at the level of national governments. In this situation, the EU still closed the external borders, but did not show any fraternity or solidarity, but proved its low effectiveness in a critical situation.
An even more revealing example would be Hungary. In Hungary, the parliament introduced a state of emergency and granted the government extraordinary powers. The point is that Prime Minister Viktor Orban can issue decrees that suspend laws and rule the country without parliament.In addition, the law provides for imprisonment of up to three years as a punishment for violation of quarantine rules. For spreading false or distorted information that may impede the response to a pandemic, one can also be imprisoned for a period of one to five years. This situation has caused especially serious concern - there are fears that it may be used as a means of pressure on independent media.
Orban also said that migrants are to blame for the spread of the coronavirus in Hungary: «Our experience shows that the disease was introduced mainly by foreigners and that it spreads among foreign citizens». «This law gives the government the power and means to protect Hungary, » the Prime Minister said..
In 2018, the European Parliament has already initiated a case against Hungary for violating the principles of democracy and human rights, in particular, for pressure on non-governmental organizations, infringement of media freedom and the independence of the judiciary, but what this law may lead to is still unclear.
Leading experts call Hungary a «competitive authoritarian» regime or «electoral autocracy». The authoritative international rating body Freedom House no longer considers Hungary a free country, and V-Dem no longer considers it a democracy (making it the first member of the European Union without these ratings).
The adoption of the law caused a wave of negative sentiment in the media and social networks. The Washington Post has published an article entitled «Coronavirus kills its first democracy». A sharp reaction to the adopted law manifested itself in tweets of politicians and public people. So, the former Prime Minister of Italy wrote a tweet in which he called on the European Union to take measures or exclude Hungary from its membership. Also, on Twitter, Bernie Sanders spoke out, saying that the Hungarian leader is an authoritarian ruler.
According to the article, Orban has already expressed the threat of this virus in politically convenient terms, calling it a threat posed by unwanted foreign migrants, justifying his aggressive efforts to protect the country's borders. However, many in other European countries see this as a potential path to dictatorship and accuse Hungary of non-compliance with EU rules. «In emergency situations, a temporary derogation from certain rights and procedures may be required, but any such measures should be temporary, proportionate and absolutely necessary from a public health perspective, » said Lidia Gall, Eastern European Human Rights Watch researcher.
EU also warned Hungary not to flout democracy with coronavirus laws. Thus, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stated that the Commission will closely monitor the application of emergency measures in all participating countries: «It is imperative that emergency measures do not prejudice our fundamental principles and values». If a violation is discovered, an investigation will be conducted and, if necessary, certain sanctions will be imposed.
However, it is worth noting that such actions of some CEE states are quite effective. According to the Deep Knowledge Group, Hungary is considered one of the safest countries for the COVID-19 epidemic.
Thus, during the coronavirus crisis, similar tendencies in the behavior of the member states of the European Union are observed. In the early stages of the crisis, all countries preferred individual policies and border closures. Hungary and several other member countries are criticized for restricting democracy in the country, however, such decisive actions have made Hungary one of the safest countries in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic. Each of the countries counted on their own strength, without showing a certain European solidarity. The current improvement in the situation in the European Union is mainly due to individual actions of countries and their policies. The ability to reconcile and agree on an anti-crisis plan will determine not only the depth of the crisis, but also the place of Europe in the post-coronavirus world. Now, when some EU countries are beginning to gradually remove quarantine measures, the EU's assistance in restoring the economy of the member States will certainly be visible. So far, the EU's actions look optimistic, given the latest data that the leaders have agreed to create a European Recovery Fund that will help the EU overcome the recession and economic downturn. However, in the initial stages of the crisis, many experts saw a split and lack of solidarity.
Conclusions
In all three crises shown, which have influenced the European Union in the last 5 years, several common features can be distinguished. The first is the lack of unity within the EU. Joseph Nay Jr. argues that «the European Union, with an economy roughly the size of United States', dithered in the face of disunity». Both during the migration crisis, and during the current coronacrisis, each country pursued its own independent domestic policy in its own national interests which is also stated by report of the «Valdai» club «a series of crisis situations, culminating in the COVID-19 pandemic, has demonstrated that countries rely on their own socio-cultural experience in emerging from them». No agreement has still been reached on possible instruments for regulating migration within the EU. It's hard to argue with the opinion of the famous American diplomat and expert Richard Haas, who says that «countries have reacted and continue to respond to the pandemic and its economic consequences mainly individually». Some countries also have clearly anti-migrant rhetoric, for example, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán criticizes the EU's «unsuccessful migration policy» and the lack of protection of its external borders, «That's why we build fences in Hungary». Also Czech President Milos Zeman said that «no one invited refugees here,» and Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaité called the allocation of quotas «unfair and meaningless». This point of view is shared by academician Alexander Dynkin, President of IMEMO RAS, who points out that «if we talk about public administration, the trend towards the renationalization of states continues is clearly visible. Real problems require real and quick answers, not conversations about «common values»». During the COVID-19 crisis, countries were also isolated from each other.
Secondly, a common feature of the EU's response to crises is the underestimation of threats in the early stages which in the future only worsens crises. «Inertia, fear of change, lack of courage and systematic vision lead to a late assessment of risks and the loss of their ability to stop them. For this reason, the Schengen zone has already become a victim of COVID-19, the Financial and Economic Stability Pact (Maastricht) has been temporarily suspended, Northern Europe does not want to participate in guarantees of sovereign debts of Southern Europe». This point of view is also shared by The Economist, which writes that «the prosperous north hates the idea of a «transfer union» that subsidises the needy south—and it hates even more the prospect of mutualising any of the poorer members' debt». In the first two months of the migration crisis, many EU leaders declared their readiness to accept migrants. The same thing happened with Brexit, when almost all politicians and countries were confident in the failure of the referendum. In the situation after the appearance of the coronacrisis, there were statements that Europe was ready to fight it. However, as it turned out, the underestimation of crises leads to their greater development.
Based on the crises analyzed, three scenarios of the possible further development of the European Union as an integration association — realistic, positive and negative — can be distinguished.
The negative scenario is that after the crisis of COVID-19, some member states may become disillusioned with the European Union, the role of populism may increase and some countries may leave the EU. In the XXI century in central Europe there is a shift of the political pendulum to the right. Right-populist parties began to conquer the minds of Europeans and through democratic elections entered the parliaments of European states. Previously, such sentiments were not characteristic of Europe. This happened against the backdrop of various crises - demographic, financial, economic, migration.
Furthermore, recently, citizens of EU member States have expressed an opinion about their identity: «Are we Europeans or Germans /French / Italians? » The crisis of «identity» is used in the meaning of national identity within the conflict of the national basis and the emerging European psychophysiological integrity. In other words, the EU has stalled in development after the failure to adopt the Single European Constitution. «But the process of European integration was exhausted long before this crisis, which Brexit particularly vividly demonstrated. The main question for the world after the pandemic is how much the pendulum will swing from Brussels to national capitals»- believes Richard Haas. Thoughts to create even closer Union and expand EU competences have failed. The EU now is a mixture of a federation and an international organization, and the balance between both does fluctuates in the direction of international organization.
EU leaders are losing the trust of the electorate and using nationalist and populist rhetoric to restore their authority. Eurosceptics also harshly criticize the EU for allowing migration flows that came to Europe from Muslim countries. Their statements bordered on racism and xenophobia, and were supplemented by calls for the overthrowing the ruling elites. The eurosceptic position was taken by the President of Hungary Viktor Orbán . «The EU is condemned for its lack of transparency in decision-making, as well as for its elitist, bloated, opaque, technocratic, overbearing and expensive bureaucracy. Usually the proposed solutions include more direct democracy or a significant reduction of bureaucracy in Europe». Experts also add the problem of lack of the locus of power inside the EU to the above mentioned.
However, after improving the economic situation in European countries, reducing the flow of migrants and experiencing Brexit, it was possible to maintain a certain unity of Europe by the autumn of 2018. It became more difficult for eurosceptics and populists to exploit all sorts of fears - 67 % of Europeans noted the positive consequences of their country's membership in the EU. Surveys have shown that the main tasks of the European Parliament are the fight against terrorism, youth unemployment and migration.
The elections of 23-26 may 2019 showed that Pro-European parties retained control of the European Parliament . However, the populist parties won in France, Italy and the UK. None of the parties in the elections to the European Parliament received an absolute majority, the relative majority remains with the European People's Party and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats. The new EU parliament will largely determine the path of integration. The pro-European majority will try to propose rational solutions to the problems of migration, fiscal policy and ensure a dialogue between civil society and technocratic elites as well as it will try to propose a solution to all mentioned problems.
However, as we see now, coronavirus fuels populist sentiment in some countries. As it was mentioned, countries with sufficiently strong euroskeptic sentiments, such as Italy and Hungary, having seen a lack of solidarity during the crisis, can vote for their country to leave the EU. Also, coronavirus entails a lot of consequences. The economic crisis, which will definitely affect the EU, can contribute to this. The opinion of The Economist magazine is indisputable, according to which «belonging to the EU is supposed to bring countries safety in a dangerous world. Instead the pandemic is testing the bonds of membership, just as the financial crisis of 2007-09 did». Moreover, experts and researches predict that coronavirus will entail a second wave of migration to EU countries. For example, Greece has recently stopped 10,000 migrants from Turkey per day. Turkey demands more active support from the European Union on the Syrian issue and threatens to stop curbing the flow of migrants. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan bluntly stated that hundreds of thousands of migrants are now moving towards Europe, which will soon become millions. In the last migration crisis of 2015, almost
900,000 people entered Europe through Turkey. There are about 3.7 million migrants from Syria in Turkey now. Indeed, about 100,000 refugees live in overcrowded camps on Greek Islands near Turkey. The camp on the island of Chios is home to 5,000 refugees instead of the usual 1,000. As Richard Haas points out «the pandemic will also exacerbate, in much of the developed world, resistance to accepting large numbers of immigrants and refugees - a trend that has been noticeable for at least the past five years. Society will be wary of foreigners, partly because of the likelihood of importing infectious diseases, and partly because unemployment will increase. Opposition will increase, but the number of displaced persons and refugees will continue to increase significantly, as their governments will not be able to support their citizens». All these problems will not add to the optimism of Italians, among whom there are many eurosceptics- states the expert of Foreign Policy journal and other countries where the populists are strong enough. «The crisis of epidemiological and economic management in the EU will require a serious reset of this organization. The idea of abolishing consensual decision-making in the EU may receive additional arguments. Delegating part of the sovereignty of France, Germany, Italy, for example, to the Baltic States, does not contribute to the speed and optimality of strategic decisions». Quick and effective decisions in a crisis are made by the state. In this regard, it is difficult to argue with the opinion of the experts of the «Valdai» club, who declare that «the Sovereign state remains the only institution capable of acting in an organized and efficient manner. The illusion that the state can disappear from world politics, giving way to cross-border supranational entities, has finally dissipated». Whether the new Pro-European majority in the European Parliament will be able to offer rational solutions to the problems remains a big question.
The second scenario for the development of the situation is positive. Europositivists claim that the standard of living in Europe, as well as the human development index, remain consistently high. The EU economy is one of the three largest economies in the world. «But if we take Germany separately — the largest economy of the European Union, ahead of all other EU countries taken separately, it does not fall into the League of leaders».Social benefits and salaries in the European Union remain among the highest in the world. In the ratings of democracy, freedom of speech and press, economic freedom and human rights, the EU countries also occupy leading positions. A positive option for further development of the European Union is as follows. It means that the new European Parliament will be able to cope with all the crises and unite the member States. New legal documents and programs will be developed. There will be a consolidation of the bloc's member countries based on the negative experience of dealing with crises. This option may include expanding and deepening the integration of countries, seeking consensus on hot issues, and building cohesion within the EU. A recent report by the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences indicates that on the other hand, Brexit may strengthen joint cooperation among the remaining EU member states and its reformation as we all know about the ability of EU countries to negotiate about difficult questions. The Economist for instance sees a positive scenario for the EU in changing the treaties: «for a start, if it is not to stagnate it will need to adapt, and this means overcoming the taboo against treaty change. Successful treaty change entails a broader acknowledgment that different countries want different things from the union and that such a «multi-speed Europe» can be more resilient than today's unmet aspirations».
A realistic version of the development of events seems the most probable and possible. It considers that the European Union, as now, will remain only an economic and political union. The member countries will conduct a joint foreign policy and contribute to the development of the economy of the entire EU. However, the response to crises will remain unchanged - countries will respond to them on their own. The sovereignty of the state will remain with the state and respond to challenges, respectively, will be the states issue. «It is necessary to understand that the pluralism of national socio-political models is historical and reduces entropy, that heterogeneity is more stable than homogeneity, that classical neoliberalism has exhausted itself. It is fragile and does not provide convincing answers to the challenges and threats of the twenty-first century» writes Alexander Dynkin confirming this point of view. This scenario is beneficial for everyone,
countries reserve sovereignty and the right to respond to crises independently, but at the same time gain more significant weight in the political arena and a more developed economy.
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