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POLITICAL CRISIS IN ARAB WORLD: CONFLICT OF INTERESTS
© Darkenov K.G.*, Abzhapparova B.Zh.*
Eurasian national university n.a. L.N. Gumilyev, Kazakhstan, Astana
This article focuses on «The Political Crisis of the Arab countries» to one of the most topical and interesting issues of our time. The article examines the causes of the «Arab Spring» and how connected regional crisis that has gripped the Arab world. The author analyzes all events and seeks to answer the difficult question of the modern world historical science and Regional Studies.
The whole world draws its attention to the political atmosphere in Arabic countries. The situation is being estimated by media worldwide in rapid sequence. Whatever we may say, in actual fact, the interested states pull the others to their side, spreading all required information. Therefore most of the countries including Russia and Kazakhstan received the alterations and gave prepared information to press. In depth analysis is being given to world developing process by Russian politologists recently.
According to Russian scientists, events happened in the North Africa and on the East Arabic countries were unexpected for Russia. Political institutes and expert bodies could not identify the occurrence, development, measures, process and consequences of revolution movement in the countries [1]. Consequently, the condition made an impact on policy and stance on Middle East and Arabic states. Presumably it was the main reason why Russia was not able to support friendly Arabic countries or in case of pressure from the West side Russia un wish to set them apart. Russia could not presuppose and assess the situation in Tunisia at first, namely reasons, development process, increase, motivation. The situation was considered as domestic affairs of the country. Analyzing the reasons and outcomes of Tunisia riots, Russian Foreign political organizations rectified the problems regarding the return of Russian tourists, instead of determining the position of RF.
When people protests began in Egypt, Russia has not defined the official position until Mubarak's retrial. Perhaps due to the unclear official stand, but Russian media resources have not used the term «revolution» in relation to the situation in Tunisia and Egypt. Following determinations were used: «Disorder», «marginal' distemper», «world conspiracy of Central Reconnaissance unit», «at-tempt to make military overturn». The situation in Libya was perceived in the same political paradigm.
* Доцент кафедры Региноведения, кандидат исторических наук доцент, член-корреспонднт Международный Академии Информатизации.
* Профессор кафедры Востоковедения, доктор исторических наук.
The political case which was became the subject of whole world analysis, has divided Russian elite on supporters and contradictors as well. Sometimes the discrepancy in opinions was limited by individual men, such as Mubarak, Gaddafi and Saleh supporters and opponents. Internal situation and external force were not assessed.
Politologists, regional studies specialists had not expected the revolutions in Arabic countries; clear estimate could not be given by them at first. Revolution in Arabic countries has swept by «chain reaction» not only the countries which faced social economic problems but also those which were on stable development. Such countries as Bahrain, Tunisia, Libya and Saudi Arabia, which previously had not any protests to the authority were affected as well [2]. The question like how this unexpected situation appeared and which is the reason are under investigation. For instance, per capita income in Tunisia during 2004-2009 has increased from 3.5 thousand Tunisian dinars (2.7 thousand dollar) up to 5 thousand TND (3.9 thousand USD). Life conditions became better. 60 % of middle class enhanced to 83 % in consumption, 80 % of them have dwellings and 21 % automobiles. Oil producer Libya gave donation to the people by money, industrial goods and certificates to obtain cars close to revolution [3].
The causes of revolution are different. The reasons were sought in hard social-economic situation in Egypt, monopolistic control on Tunisian economy of Ben Ali and Tarablusi dynasties, the contradiction between Sunnites and Shiites in Bahrain, separatist movement in Kiranaike, Libya and so on. Internal factor which is relevant to Arab world recent years was not run out of attention.
Mentioned internal factor - is the formation of civil society in the Middle East and North Africa. Those citizens, who got education abroad, had another view to overturn. New generation - educated, full aware of world media information, and which would not admit the authoritarianism - has replaced another one -formatted on traditional basis and kept in with the power and law of charismatic leaders. The representatives of new generation would like to declare themselves as the citizens of their country and not as conquered. It does not mean to hope on wisdom of «the Fathers of the Nation», who handled country power for so many years, it means to find political economic, social problems way forward [4]. Authority was assigned as guilty of political and economic crisis in the country. Not only those who had western education but also locals too demanded developments, and active side preferred change of power. Unemployment among youth stepped up the movement against the power.
Alongside with that, in recent 20-30 years national bourgeois influence has increased dramatically. The economy became the influence area of dynastical groups and bureaucratic bourgeois. Community in the State apparatus, democracy restriction, Arab countries' turning onto «inherited» ones - all mentioned had maximized the protest, and unstable opponent ranges are enlarged. Only maximalists demanded the total change, conducting armed fight. And others, especially libe-
ralists went down after obtaining certain rights and conditions. They aimed to protect their positions only.
It is obviously that the authority sought the ways forward as well. They handle political ideological and social power. They tried not to lose the power, making consent with opposition to please both sides. The position is liberalisation of political system in slow rates.
No matter how, but people troubles demand courageous moves. For instance, the offer to limit president term on 4 years and 2 times only made in Egypt. To appoint Vice President was counted as mandate. It was planned in Tunisia to elect National Congress Assembly to prepare new Constitution. Opposition in Saudi Arabia require to elect Advisory Committee which was assigned by King till nowadays and to turn country on Constitutional Monarchy. Opposition in Bahrain claim new changes in the power system as well, but there are some differences. For example, radical Shiite organizations demand state to be declared as Republic, and its more quite parts demanding to adopt new Constitution, and to make election on ministers' posts instead of assignment.
Authority has attempted several times to meet objections of opposition. The King of Morocco Mr. Muhammad IV decided to prepare new Constitution, and did not mind Prime Minister to be elected from winner party in Parliament.
Egypt had reverses to experience in an amount of 6.3 milliard USD, and Tunisia 2 milliard euro at short notice [5]. Moreover, developing countries where basic number of world population conurbation (76 %), and their content in the world gross production tot (37 %) [6,24] the main problem of less developed countries is poverty, so and the main reason of revolution. At present, 41.8 % of Yemen population, 22.6 % of Algeria, 19 % of Morocco are under poverty. Therewith youth unemployment in Arab countries is being highly grown - 42,8 % in Egypt, 30,4 % in Tunisia, 24,4 % in Syria. If note the expenses increase on of material indemnifying, it is evident that improvement of people living conditions will run not so promptly as it is expected.
Ideological vacuum appeared in the country inward habit, and revolution can be deepened. As countries' development models did not prove themselves. Capitalist Egypt, Social Democratic Tunisia, and Jamakhir development way of Libya are under crisis. But as of experience, ideological vacuum could not last for a long. Various political ideological tendencies and ways are trying to fill it up. (The same was during USSR disintegration). There is a possibility in Arab world to make development in religious way and strengthen second birth ideology. No one can disprove the case that people could try to find way forward through religion.
But there is an opinion that Islamite influence in the Middle East and Maghreb is not so large, and there is no need to fear in vain. The view supporters make several proves. For example, the Muslim Brothers Association in Egypt has only 15-20 % of adherents. The range of Islam fundamentalists is changing the positions. Mentioned Muslim Brothers organization is being turned to political party.
They blame extremists and say that spiritual senses of religion can be disappeared due to terrorism. There is an opinion that parliament government, including multi party is on Islamic basis.
«An Nahda» organization in Tunisia declared democratic way and abandon force employment in London Congress, 2011. Even in the case of any other political power come to power instability will not appear in Egypt and Tunisia. But the questions as when will stability base, when interstate relations will be regulated, what is the most effective ways forward are still open.
It is impossible to estimate the political situation in Arabic countries. It is undeniable that Al Kaida's influence in several states of Arab world is very high. When people riots covered Yemen, South part of the country passed under control of terroristic groups. Americans used military aviation but hopeless. The more effective was the fight against separatism and terrorism which was held by Yemen army at the command of President Ali Abdalla Salekh.
The reason of political crisis in Arabic countries is internal social-political and economic impact. And external forces' impact is still exists. The issue is in depth considered in Syria and Libya press releases.
After several attempts to step down riots in South Syria, claim pretense movements covered North West part of the country, bordered with Turkey.
According to Iranian channel «Press TV» and Arabic publication «Al Shark Al Ausat», the main storm centre was Djisr al Shugura city, where Syrian Kurds conglomerated.
Tens of millions of Kurds had split up in territory of 4 neighbouring countries -Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iran. Syrian Kurds as Kurds in other countries aspired to independence being against of the authorities. Kurd problem is always an obstacle on the way of country unity and territorial integrity in all mentioned states.
5 June 2011 due to unexpected riots in Jisr ash Shugura around 120 policemen, militaries and representatives of internal security forces were killed. After the government sent troops, Kurds had left their places and several of them moved to Turkey. The question like whether Turkey has any concern to the event is raised.
According to Iranian TV channels, a day before Djisr ash Shugara riots, the head of USA Intelligence service Leon Panetta made a secret visit to Turkey, where went around the cross border with Syria. On the evidence of Syria counter intelligence, weapon was provided by Turkey during the riots [7]. For that reasons, Iranian and Arabic media claim Turkey and USA for Kurds disorders.
Poliologists assume that Turkey has interests in Arabic crisis as well. There is opinion that, on the one hand, Turkey intends to strengthen its positions in the region; on the other, pro-Western Turkey could victimize arabic-muslim countries. Both beliefs could be true. In due time Turkey President Turgyt Ozal said that «XXI century will be the century of Turkey» [8, p. 160], and probably it was not said simply. It is known that 3 main principals of external policy had been used, namely, to give priority to security, draw on the resources on limitless and
maximal way, and lead the region. Therefore, Turkey stands a good chance to intend to the region leader role. It is unanswerable that Turkey is not a simple gamer, it is a main.
In addition, the separation between Turkey and Muslim states like Iran and Syria is not so vast. International analysts do not favour the idea of Turkish academic Barkhan Galyun to create Syrian National Council (SNC - is similar with National Council Revolutionists in Libyan Bengasi). They believe that if this force consisting of 230 oppositional politicians, Syrian «Muslim brothers» representatives will take one of the Syrian cities, Turkey declare it «New Syrian government». There are points of views that in order to systematize the situation and defend the rights afterwards the help from West would be asked [9].
Turkey and France Foreign Affairs Ministers should strengthen the sanction against Syria. And possibility of military operation should be taken into account. According to Foreign Affairs Minister of Turkey Ahmed Daoud Oglo «We cannot simply stand over the violence in Syria. No one has a right to attack own people in the face of World community». In the interim the fact that Turkish avian forces had crossed the Iraqi border and delivered a stroke on Kurds for separatist actions was not mentioned.
Foreign Affairs Minister of France Alain Juppé during the press conference in Ankara said, that «To enter Syria is possible only with the UN sanction, and France requires it» [10]. Eventually, it is clear that France is ready for the war, UN sanction is needed only. French Minister called UN SC for prompt steps «to stop violence in Syria» [11].
29 November Arabic web site «Ar-rai al-arabi» declared that 600 Libyan volunteers were carried through Turkey too Syria in order to participate in strike against President Bashar Asad. As a source of this information was declared a representative of Libyan governance. Of course it is not surprising. Because Libyan Transitional National Council has recognized Syrian Oppositional National Council as «the singular legal government» [12].
It is common knowledge that Turkey was in close relations with Gaddafi. Tens of thousands Turkish workers lived and worked in Libya. Turkish companies invested milliards of dollars to Libyan economy. But then Ankara has changed its political orientation in depth [13].
Most of those who observed political situation in Arabic countries ask the question as why «Arabic revolution» is taken place and activated only in 3 countries like Libya, Yemen and Syria.
In the main alliance of USA in the Middle East, in Egypt revolution has stopped shortly. When riots began in Bahrain government called out army and police from neighboring countries, on several evidences, hundreds of Shiites were killed. And now this issue is not raised up in press. Only 3 countries are out of regulation orbit. The reasons of that aligned not only with internal situations but with external as well. NATO forces had delivered bombs freely on the track of M. Gaddafi.
Russian researchers explain the revolution reasons not only with 30-years single authority, and internal contradictions but with common military and military-technical collaboration, mutual economic projects with Russia in one side and Libya, Yemen and Syria particularly on the other.
When Gaddafi left political scene, for Russian it meant that all bilateral economic contracts and milliards had no force any more, and the impact is lost.
The revolutions in three countries are closely related to «Arabic revolution» and «Color revolution». Color revolutions, namely «Roses revolution» took place in Georgia in 2003; «Orange revolution» in Ukraine 2003, «Foliose revolution» in Lebanon, «Tulip revolution» in Kyrgyzstan 2005, «Jasmine revolution» in Tunisia were held in a similar way [14].
Consequently all above mentioned states moved closer to the USA. Only «green revolution» in Iran had shaped unwell and the relationships between USA and Iran got to confrontation.
If take into consideration the fact that, UN cooperative army could not be able to protest Gaddafi and Libyan rioters were unable during the war, it can be apparently clear that the revolution stage directors and scenarists are far away from the country itself. And the number of «active revolutionist» and obedient ones is too small.
The reasons and prerequisites of revolution and NATO's intervention were interlinked with «Great Middle East» project during the G8 2004 summit held in C-Island. The project authors stressed the aim - to create democratic, open, tolerant society which would not be able to threat lifelong interests of the power states and to be the basis of terrorism. Mentioned project remind Helsinki final act of 1975 which was prepared by USA and its alliances, where the destination points were to spread out democracy in Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, to provide human rights, and to perform economic reforms. According Russian scientist, Helsinki act played a great role in disintegrating SU. They assume that implementation of «Great Middle East» project will make great impact on disintegration of Arabic-Muslim world [15].
There is an opinion among analysts that political crisis in Arabic countries is one of the US foreign policy strategy. NATO Army former General - American Wesley Clark's interview of 2007 is referred as the evidence, where General said about his awareness of intervention to Iraq in the beginning 2000. After that he mentioned - «Country will be reformed in a five years. So, let us begin from Iraq. Then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somali, Sudan and Iran» [16].
The thing what surprises that, General Wesley Clark speech became into reality in the strict turn. Engine is switched on. In the beginning - required internal riots were stressed in each country. Next step - intervention and violence were implemented by external sanctions. Informational and technological wars waged together with that. As was said by Clark, Sudan has divided on two parts; pirate navy was created in Somali. Libya is destroyed. And now the engine is moving to Syrian side. Next will be Iran, which is able to possess nuclear weapons.
It is known that Libya can face the Iraqi scenario. Owing to the «oil factor» in both countries. According to the data of the very beginning of XXI century, 65 per cent of fuel oil gathered in Arabic countries. Oil prices in Arabic countries are relatively cheap. The production of 1 ton of oil in Saudi Arabia is 2 USD, in US 28 USD; in Northern Sea it costs 55 USD. Arabic cheap oil enables Japan and West Europe to meet 60 per cent of their market requirements. And US itself consume 25 per cent of world oil production [17, р. 281]. So that is why, US and its NATO alliances will exercise control over the Arab world. Just one Persian Gulf alone is able to meet 2/3 of world countries market pull for the next 80 years. US -is the biggest oil production consumer in the world. For this reason US foreign policy will be always aligned with oil factor. Hence, considering the situation in Arabic countries, it is impossible to look oil factor on neutral way. Therewith, it is rational to connect the situation in Arab world with strategic interest of the US, which has dominating role in the world policy.
Literature:
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КУЛЬТУРНАЯ ИДЕНТИЧНОСТЬ В ИЗМЕРЕНИЯХ ГЛОБАЛИЗАЦИИ
© Кузнецова Ю.А.*
Сызранский филиал Самарского государственного экономического университета, г. Сызрань
Статья посвящена проблеме сохранения культурной идентичности в процессе глобализации. Автор анализирует современные взгляды на феномен глобализации и описывает три измерения глобализирующегося общества. Основное внимание уделено проблеме сохранения и трансформации национальных ценностей русской культуры в едином социокультурном пространстве.
Мир, окружающий человека, глобализируется с поражающей скоростью. Эту особенность отметил еще К. Ясперс «Лишь в наши дни существует реальное единство человечества, которое заключается в том, что нигде не может произойти ничего существенного без того, чтобы это не затронуло всех» [1, с. 153]. Глобализация является тем вектором развития человечества, с которым мы имеем и будем иметь дело в ближайшем будущем.
Известный американский исследователь Дж. Най, выделил четыре наиболее отчетливые измерения глобализации: экономическое, военное, эколо-
* Доцент кафедры Гуманитарных и социально-экономических дисциплин, кандидат исторических наук.
