GEOECONOMIC CHRONICLE
"PIPELINE-BASED ECONOMICS": THE GLOBAL RELIANCE ON OIL AND GAS EXPORTS
DOI: 10.52174/2579-2989 2024.6-73
"He who controls the oil controls the world."
Henry Kissinger
Keywords: pipeline, oil, gas, natural resources,
infrastructure, geopolitical importance
Oil and natural gas rank among the most widely traded commodities globally. However, since production regions often do not align with major consumer markets, transportation — particularly via pipelines across continents and oceans — plays a critical role in shaping the dynamics of the global oil and gas industry.
"Pipeline-based economics" refers to the economic systems and geopolitical strategies shaped by the production, distribution, and consumption of oil and natural gas, heavily reliant on pipeline infrastructure. This concept characterizes economies, markets, and policies influenced by energy resources transported through extensive networks of pipelines. In other words, "Pipeline-Based Economics" explores the critical role of pipelines in the global energy economy, emphasizing how oil and gas exports shape economic strategies and dependencies worldwide.
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lthough renewable energy sources are playing Lan increasingly significant role in global energy consumption, the global economy remains largely reliant on oil. As the most widely used energy source, the growing demand for energy continues to drive oil extraction and transportation activities.
Pipelines are widely regarded as the safest and most efficient method for transporting oil and gas products. However, their construction is a complex and often controversial process. In cases where distances are too vast or political and geographical challenges render pipelines impractical, oil tankers and Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
Anna PAKHLYAN
PhD in Economics, Associate Professor
Anna is a senior researcher at "Amberd" Research Center, associate professor at ASUE chair of International Economic Relations. In 2006, she graduated with honors from YSIE (now ASUE) and got the degree of PhD in Economics in 2012. In 2019, she received the title of associate professor. She has been trained and lectured at several European universities. She is the author of over 50 scientific and about three dozen analytical publications.
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rt https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5854-2473
vessels serve as alternatives for transportation.
The economic nature of pipelines lies in their status as long-term, capital-intensive projects that influence regional development and international trade. They create economic interdependencies between producing and consuming nations while fostering economic growth in regions they traverse. Geopolitically, pipelines are highly significant, their routes and control over them are frequently subjects of international negotiation, conflict, or cooperation.
Pipelines are among the most efficient and widely used systems for transporting energy resources like oil, gas, and water. They generate significant economic benefits, including job creation, revenue, and economic growth for many nations and regions. However, pipelines also come with notable economic, social, environmental and geopolitical challenges that need to be carefully considered and addressed'.
Pipeline-Based Economics can be characterized as a framework that emphasizes the economic, geopolitical, and infrastructural significance of oil and gas pipelines in global energy trade and supply chains. It reflects the ways in which countries and regions depend on the transportation of fossil fuels via pipelines to sustain energy needs, drive industrial growth, and manage strategic energy security.
As interstate pipeline capacity is a key factor in determining the amount of natural gas that can be physically traded between markets, the connections between capacities, flows, and spot prices are consistent and quantifiable2.
In the context of economic influence, pipelines play a vital economic role by enabling efficient resource transportation and stimulating regional development. They require significant upfront investment but offer substantial returns through revenues,
profits, and job creation. During construction, pipelines inject capital into local economies, supporting businesses and creating a multiplier effect. Once operational, they lower transportation costs, improve energy security, and enhance market access for industries reliant on oil or gas. However, they can also introduce challenges, such as market distortions, monopoly risks, and the potential for stranded assets when demand shifts or resources deplete. Overall, pipelines drive economic growth by ensuring reliable resource access and attracting industrial investments.
According to the research results, conducted by the research consultancy firm for energy technologies THUNDER SAID ENERGY, the following interesting points have been revealed3:
• The biggest cost for a pipeline is capital expenditure (capex). A rough estimate is $1-2 million per kilometer, but this cost depends on the pipeline's size, location, and terrain.
• It costs $1 per barrel (bbl) to transport oil or similar liquids 500 kilometers using a pipeline operating at a medium-to-large scale (measured in thousands of barrels per day, or Mbpd).
• The energy needed for this transport is about 2.1 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per barrel, and it produces about 0.8 kilograms of CO2 emissions per barrel.
• Pipelines become less efficient at smaller volumes: if the volume is reduced by half, the cost doubles. This highlights that transporting larger volumes of liquid is more cost-effective due to economies of scale.
Oil and gas are top global commodities, and pipelines are crucial for connecting distant production regions to consumer markets. The primary methods for transporting crude oil, oil products, and natural gas are tanker
Pipeline economics: The economic aspects and impacts of pipeline development and operation, FasterCapital, 5 June 2024,
https://www.fastercapital.com/content/Pipeline-economics--The-economic-aspects-and-impacts-of-pipeline-development-and-op-
eration.html
Oliver, M.E., Mason, C.F. & Finnoff, D. Pipeline congestion and basis differentials. J Regul Econ 46, 261-291 (2014). https://doi. org/10.1007/s11149-014-9256-9
THUNDER SAID ENERGY, Pipeline costs: moving oil, products or other liquids? https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/ pipelines-the-energy-economics/ (Date of access: 10.12.2024).
North America Asia Europe
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FIGURE 1
The Longest Operational Oil Pipeline Networks Worldwide in 2024 (in kilometers)4
ships and pipelines, with global oil tanker capacity exceeding 650 million tons' deadweight in 2023. That year, oil tankers represented about 29% of global seaborne trade by tonnage5.
The regions with the world's longest oil pipeline networks are presented in Figure 1.
The world's longest oil pipeline network is located in North America, which remains
the leading one at over 111,000 kilometers as of May 2024, although the Asian continent has notably expanded its pipeline network in recent years. The United States and Canada, as major producers and refiners, have developed an extensive pipeline network spanning the continent, with the U.S. boasting an oil pipeline system nearly three times larger than that of China. Asia follows
Advanced economies China
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FIGURE 2
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Global oil demand by quarter, 2023-2025 (mb/d)6
Statista, Global oil pipeline length 2024, by region, Sep 13, 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1491014/length-of-oil-pipe-lines-by-region/
Statista, Capacity of oil tankers in seaborne trade 1980-2023, Jun 20, 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/267605/capaci-ty-of-oil-tankers-in-the-world-maritime-trade-since-1980/
IEA (2024), Year-on-year changes in global oil demand by quarter, 2023-2025, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statis-tics/charts/year-on-year-changes-in-global-oil-demand-by-quarter-2023-2025, Licence: CC BY 4.0 (Accessed: 01.12.2024).
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FIGURE 3
Global oil demand by quarter, 2023-2025 (mb/d)7
North America with operational oil pipeline network of more than 86,700 km long.
The Asian continent includes producing giants such as Saudi Arabia and leading consumer countries like China and India. Among key investors in Asian pipeline infrastructures are countries like Iraq, Iran, and India8.
Europe is the third largest region with a long pipeline network, measured in 74,077 km. The distance of pipelines in Latin America and the Caribbean region is 26,755 km, in Africa - 23,854 km. And, Oceania is characterized by the thinnest network of pipelines, with only 2115 km long.
Despite the clean energy transition trends and growing usage of electric cars worldwide, global oil demand increased by 2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2023 to 99 mb/d, nearly doubling the pre-2020 average growth rate. This surge was driven by increased petrochemical use in China, which saw a 1.5 mb/d rise, and global transport demand, while advanced economies experienced a 0.3 mb/d decline. In 2024,
demand growth is projected to slow significantly, especially in China, with a total increase of less than 1 mb/d expected. Over the past decade more than 45% of global oil demand growth was due to road transport, which has increased oil demand by 4.2 mb/d9.
The picture reflected in Figure 2 and Figure 3 shows that the growth in global oil demand in 2023-2024 was largely due to the recording of upward trends in demand growth in China, especially between the second quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024.
According to Figure 3, during 2015-2023. demand for oil in China increased by 4.9 million barrels per day (mb/d), in India - by 1.1 mb/d, in South Asia, Africa and the Middle East, oil demand was relatively modest -0.1-0.4 mb/d. There was no change in demand in North America. During the period under review, oil demand in Europe decreased by -0.7 mb/d, in Japan and Korea - by -0.9 mb/d.
The global market for liquefied natural
IIEA (2024), Change in global oil demand in selected regions, 2015-2023, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/
charts/change-in-global-oil-demand-in-selected-regions-2015-2023, Licence: CC BY 4.0 (Accessed: 01.12.2024). Statista, Global oil and gas transportation industry - statistics & facts, Sep 16, 2024, https://www.statista.com/topics/8216/glob-al-oil-and-gas-transportation-industry/#topicOverview
IEA (2024), World Energy Outlook 2024, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024, Licence: CC BY 4.0 (report), p. 37, 70.
gas (LNG) is expected to grow significantly as part of the world's efforts to use cleaner energy. As of December 2024, about 400 million tons of LNG are produced each year, but this is projected to increase to 1,100 million tons per year by 2050. This growth means LNG production will increase at an average rate of around 4% per year10. The main reason for such kind of rapid growth is that LNG is much less polluting than coal - burning coal produces twice as much carbon dioxide (CO2) as LNG. So, switching from coal to LNG helps reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Nevertheless, Global coal demand grew by over 100 Mtce in 2023, reaching around 6,000 Mtce, driven by increased power sector use in China and India. Advanced economies, however, saw a sharp decline of over 120 Mtce (10%), with coal use in U.S. and EU power sectors falling by 20-25%. In 2024, coal demand is expected to slightly
China Russia United States Italy Austral ia Japan Germany France Bangladesh Spain Mexico 8
Netherlands E^l Ukraine Effl 1 Canada 5 United Kingdom 3D 1
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FIGURE 4
exceed 2023 levels due to rising electricity needs in China and India, outweighing reductions in the EU''.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas converted into a liquid form to simplify transportation and storage, making it more efficient and cost-effective. Composed primarily of methane with small amounts of ethane, natural gas is a non-toxic, odorless, and colorless substance. It is liquefied by cooling it to an extremely low temperature of -160°C (-260°F).
By the end of 2023, the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker fleet included 772 vessels, including floating storage units. The fleet has grown steadily since 2011, driven by rising LNG trade volumes, which reached 549 billion cubic meters in 2023, necessitating more tankers to meet increasing consumer demand12.
The trade of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is especially crucial for gas-exporting nations
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1 Operating gas pipelines I Gas pipelines under development
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400
500
600
700
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Countries Leading in Operational and Planned Natural Gas Pipelines Worldwide as of 2024 (number)13
'0 THUNDER SAID ENERGY, LNG: top conclusions in the energy transition? https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/category/ lng/ (Accessed: 10.12.2024).
1' IEA (2024), World Energy Outlook 2024, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024, Licence: CC BY 4.0 (report), pp. 70-71.
'2 Statista, Global LNG trade volume 1970-2023, Aug 14, 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/264000/global-lng-trade-vol-ume-since-1970/
'3 Statista, Countries with largest number of operational and planned natural gas pipelines worldwide as 2024, Feb 20, 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/744480/gas-pipelines-by-country-status-worldwide/
like Qatar and Australia, which rely almost entirely on maritime shipping to reach distant consumer markets. On the demand side, major LNG-importing countries are primarily located in East Asia, with Europe emerging as a significant market in recent years.
Over the last 30 years, there has been an enduring interest in constructing large-scale natural gas pipelines across the globe14. Natural gas, with a volumetric energy density nearly 1,000 times lower than crude oil, is among the most challenging and expensive primary fuels to transport. Internationally traded natural gas is typically transported either in gaseous form via long-distance pipeline systems or in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on specialized ships for international trade (LNG carriers)^.
Globally, the total number of operational gas pipelines exceeds 1,500, highlighting the critical role of this infrastructure in energy transportation. For pressurized natural gas, pipelines are typically constructed from carbon steel to ensure safety and durability.
According to the Figure 4, China leads the world in operational gas pipelines, with 442 functional segments as of February 2024. Additionally, 302 more segments are either under construction or planned, further expanding the country's extensive gas network. China is followed by Russia (230 pipelines overall, 70 of which is under construction) and the United States (225 pipelines overall, 30 of which is under construction). Among European countries gas pipeline operational infrastructures are available in Italy, Germany, France, Spain and the Netherlands.
Global natural gas demand rose by 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2023 to
4,190 bcm, driven by higher usage in North America's power sector and the Middle East's buildings and industry sectors. This was offset by a 40 bcm (7%) drop in Europe, where demand fell to its lowest since the early 1990s after a 13% decline in 2022. Preliminary 2024 data shows a 50 bcm increase in the first half, largely due to rising industrial and power sector demand in Asia'6.
Interestingly, LNG is growing faster than overall natural gas supply. While global natural gas production will also grow — doubling from 400 billion cubic feet per day now to 800 billion cubic feet per day by 2050 — it will only grow at about 2.5% per year on average. To support this LNG growth, the world will need to invest heavily in new facilities to liquefy natural gas. These facilities will require around $20 billion in new investments every year17.
In 2023, the United States was the world's leading exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with an export volume of approximately 114 billion cubic meters. Meanwhile, China ranked as the largest LNG importer, purchasing 97.8 billion cubic meters'8. Japan followed as the second-largest importer in 2022, with 90.3 billion cubic meters'9. That year, global LNG trade volumes reached 542 billion cubic meters, continuing a steady growth trend since 1970.
Qatar remains a key player in the LNG market, holding the world's third-largest natural gas reserves, totaling 24.7 trillion cubic meters in 2020. Most of its reserves are located in the North Field, a massive offshore area roughly the size of the country itself. Qatar produced 177 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2021 and ranked as
Perrotton, F. & Massol, O. (2018). The technology and cost structure of a natural gas pipeline: Insights for costs and rate-of-return regulation. Utilities Policy, 53, pp. 32-37. doi: 10.1016/j.jup.2018.05.004
Molnar, G. (2022). Economics of Gas Transportation by Pipeline and LNG. In: Hafner, M., Luciani, G. (eds) The Palgrave Handbook of International Energy Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86884-0_2 International Energy Agency. (2024). World Energy Outlook 2024. International Energy Agency, Retrieved from https://www. iea.org, p. 71.
THUNDER SAID ENERGY, LNG: top conclusions in the energy transition? https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/category/ lng/ (Accessed: 10.12.2024).
Statista, Global LNG trade volume 1970-2023, Aug 14, 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/264000/global-lng-trade-vol-ume-since-1970/
Statista, Global LNG imports 2023, by country, Sep 20, 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/274529/major-lng-import-ing-countries/
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FIGURE 5
1 Pipeline influence framework
the second-largest LNG exporter in 2022, closely following the United States20.
The Oil and Gas Pipelines Market was valued at USD 63.8 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow from USD 68.9 billion in 2023 to USD 127.5 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.00% from 2024 to 20322'. This growth is primarily driven by increasing demand for natural gas and oil in both residential and commercial sectors.
Despite the modern world being characterized by a crucial dependence on energy resources, oil and gas pipelines hold significant economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical importance, each playing a key role in global energy markets and shaping various aspects of society.
The influence of pipelines can be analyzed through several key dimensions, reflecting their economic, political, social, and environmental impact. These factors
highlight how pipelines shape global energy markets, international relations, and local communities (Figure 5).
The economic influence of pipelines is significant as they facilitate global energy trade, allowing countries to export resources and access new markets. Pipeline infrastructure stimulates economic activity through job creation, investment, and regional development. During construction and operation, pipelines generate significant revenue, foster industrial growth, and enable access to essential energy resources, boosting overall economic productivity.
Geopolitically, pipelines provide strategic leverage, with countries controlling key routes having considerable influence. Pipelines are often used as tools of diplomacy. Countries can negotiate pipeline projects to enhance bilateral or multilateral relationships, while energy trade can be used to foster cooperation. They ensure energy security by providing
20 Statista, Global liquefied natural gas exports by country 2023, Jul 19, 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/274528/major-ex-porting-countries-of-lng/
2' Mandaokar A., Global Oil and Gas Pipelines Market Overview, December 2024, ID: MRFR/E&P/6212-HCR, 128 p., Source: https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/oil-gas-pipeline-market-7681
stable and reliable supplies, reducing dependency on unstable routes.
Socially, pipelines improve energy access and development, boosting living standards and economic growth. By connecting regions, they foster economic cooperation and integration. However, pipeline projects can also spark social movements due to concerns over environmental or community impacts.
Environmentally, pipelines pose risks such as spills and habitat disruption, which can harm ecosystems. While they are energy-efficient, they support fossil fuel use, contributing to environmental challenges. However, pipelines may also play a role in transporting low-carbon energy, aiding the transition to renewable sources.
Technological influence refers to the innovations in pipeline design and monitoring
systems improve efficiency and safety, reducing risks.
As for the legal and regulatory aspects, pipelines crossing borders require international agreements and legal frameworks, influencing relations between nations. Governments also enforce regulations on environmental and safety standards, which affect the design, construction, and operation of pipelines.
In summary, pipelines have far-reaching influences across multiple dimensions — economic, geopolitical, social, environmental, technological, legal, and cultural. Their role in shaping global energy markets, international relations, and local communities underscores their complex and multifaceted impact on modern society.
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https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86884-0_2 Oliver, M.E., Mason, C.F. & Finnoff, D. Pipeline congestion and basis differentials. J Regul Econ 46, 261-291 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11149-014-9256-9 Perrotton, F. & Massol, O. (2018). The technology and cost structure of a natural gas
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pipeline: Insights for costs and rate-of-return regulation. Utilities Policy, 53, pp. 32-37. doi: 10.1016/j.jup.2018.05.004 Pipeline economics: The economic aspects and impacts of pipeline development and operation, FasterCapital, 5 June 2024, https://www.fastercapital .com/content/Pipe-line-economics--The-economic-aspects-and-im-pacts-of-pipeline-development-and-operation.html Statista, Capacity of oil tankers in seaborne trade 1980-2023, Jun 20, 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/267605/capac-ity-of-oil-tankers-in-the-world-maritime-trade-since-1980/
Statista, Countries with largest number of operational and planned natural gas pipelines worldwide as 2024, Feb 20, 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/744480/gas-pipelines-by-country-status-worldwide/
11. Statista, Global liquefied natural gas exports by country 2023, Jul 19, 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/274528/ma-jor-exporting-countries-of-lng/
12. Statista, Global LNG imports 2023, by country, Sep 20, 2024,
https://www.statista.com/statistics/274529/ma-jor-lng-importing-countries/
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16. THUNDER SAID ENERGY, LNG: top conclu-
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Анна ПАХЛЯН
Старший исследователь исследовательского центра «Амберд», АГЭУ,
кандидат экономических наук, доцент
ГЕОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ХРОНИКА
«ТРУБОПРОВОДНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА»: ГЛОБАЛЬНАЯ ЗАВИСИМОСТЬ ОТ ЭКСПОРТА НЕФТИ И ГАЗА
Нефть и природный газ входят в число наиболее широко продаваемых товаров в мире. Однако, поскольку регионы добычи часто не совпадают с основными потребительскими рынками, транспортировка — особенно по трубопроводам через континенты и океаны — играет решающую роль в формировании динамики мировой нефтегазовой отрасли.
«Трубопроводная экономика» относится к экономическим системам и геополитическим стратегиям, сформированным производством, распределением и потреблением нефти и природного газа, в значительной степени зависящим от трубопроводной инфраструктуры. Эта концепция характеризует экономики, рынки и политику, на которые влияют энергетические ресурсы, транспортируемые по обширным сетям трубопроводов. Другими словами, «трубопроводная экономика» исследует решающую роль трубопроводов в мировой энергетической экономике, подчеркивая, как экспорт нефти и газа формирует экономические стратегии и зависимости во всем мире.
Ключевые слова: трубопровод, нефть, газ, природные ресурсы, инфраструктура, геополитическое значение