CC BY
1
УДК 330.4
Filimonova M. V.
1st undergraduate course Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Russia, Moscow Филимонова М.В. студент магистратуры 1 курса Финансовый Университет при Правительстве Российской
Федерации Россия, г. Москва EVALUATING THE RISKS OF FOREIGN INVESTORS
TO RUSSIAN INDUSTRY ОЦЕНКА РИСКОВ ДЛЯ ИНОСТРАННЫХ ИНВЕСТОРОВ В РОССИЙСКУЮ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТЬ
Аннотация: В статье рассмотрены существующие риски и их влияние для иностранных инвесторов в промышленность России. На примере одного из существующих рисков построена эконометрическая модель, проведен анализ и тестирование данной модели, также сделаны выводы и даны рекомендации.
Annotation: This paper investigates the existence of risks and their influence in Russian industry to the foreign investment. As an example, for one existed risk it was constructed the econometric model, made an analysis and test this model, also submitted conclusion and recommendations.
Ключевые слова: риски, инвестиции, промышленность, анализ рисков
Key words: risks, investment, industry, analysis of risks.
Investment is necessary factor for creating and developing government's wellbeing. Only investment is not sufficient for the successful development and implementation of the investment project. It is important to forecast and plan of investment, the organization of the investment process, the purpose and object of the investment. It is necessary to consider investment process as a whole: a preliminary analysis of the investment project, monitoring and correlation in progress, its completion. The obligatory element of analysis of investment projects is an estimation of the risk, which determines the probability of expected benefits.
Investment risk it is the risk of depreciation of investments, the risk of loss (or not receiving full value from them), impairment of investments and unexpected financial losses (loss of income, capital gains reduction) in a situation of uncertainty of investing in economic conditions.
The main features of Russian industry that could be taken into consideration by foreign investors are as follow risks: Russian financial market is relatively undeveloped; crediting rates are set too high; the peculiarities of inflation in Russia; several currencies are actually used in Russian economy simultaneously; complexity of tax structure in Russia; the difference between Russian accounting
standards and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS); lack of government financing of the investment projects; fluctuations in paying capacity of population and contracting parties; legislation instability [1].
Inflationary risk is very important in the environment of Russian economy. For estimation of this factor it will be constructed the econometric model, represented test analysis of this model and making conclusion and giving recommendations.
In research Inflation is an endogenous (internal) variable because it is dependent and it can be calculated by using different factors and indicators which have influence on it. This variable will be explained by the econometric model. Consumer price index (CPI) and monetary aggregate (M2) are exogenous (external) variables, because they will explain the internal variable Y (Inflation).
The indicators are taking for the period from 2000 to 2016. Due to regression analysis it was received following data: level of significance is 95%;
R2 = 0,88; adjusted R2 = 0,8; observations = 17.
The following estimated model has been obtained: ~ Yt = -1324,7 + 13,2*CPI + 2,75*M2 + £t (21,8) (0,22) (0,5) [-60,8] [61,5] [0,49] R2 = 0,88
Coefficients of the model illustrates, that when a1 = 13,2, which means that if the consumer price index increase by 1%, inflation will grow to by 13,2% and vice versa, if the CPI decline by 1%, inflation will decrease by 13,2%.
a2 = 2,75 which means that if monetary aggregate increase by 1 bln, inflation will enhance by 2,75% and vice versa, if M2 decrease by 1 bln, inflation will drop by 2,75.
For model test it will be used R2-test and Durbin-Watson test. Value of the multiple coefficient of determination R2 equals to 0,88 shows that 88% of total deviation of inflation is explained by the variation of CPI and M2. It means that value of R2 reliable indicator and shows significant correlation [2].
Durbin-Watson test is using for checking autocorrelation. For this test it is necessary to use "Durbin-Watson significance table", where total number of observation is 17, and total number of factors equal 2. It means that there is no autocorrelation. Hence, indicators of the model are objective and the third assumption of Gauss Markov theorem is adequate for this model.
For foreign investors one of the important indicators it is the predictability of the economy. Thanks to econometric and mathematical models, it is possible to calculate the risk and get relevant estimation, which helps to clarify the data for foreign investors.
Used sources:
1. Tregub I.V., A.V. Oblakova. Investment Project Risk Analysis in the Environment of Russian Economy // International Journal of Applied and Fundamental Research. 2009. - №1. p. 31- 35.
'^KOHOMHKa h соцнумм №2(33) 2017
www.iupr.ru
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2. Tregub I.V. Econometrics. Model of real system// The Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation. P.164
УДК 001.201
GrishinA.A.
Master student of International Finance Faculty Academic supervisor: Tregub I.V.
Associate Professor of the Department«System analysis and modeling of
economic processes»
Financial University under the government of the Russian Federation
Russia, Moscow
УДК 001.201
Гришин А.А. студент магистратуры Международный финансовый факультет
Трегуб И.В.
научный руководитель, профессор кафедра «Системный анализ и моделирование экономических
процессов»
Финансовый университет при правительстве РФ
Россия, г. Москва THE DUTCH DISEASE IN MEXICO AND ITS INFLUENCE ON GDP.
Abstract
This paper investigates what influence "Dutch disease" has on Mexican economy and how it effects GDP of the country. Prepared and analyzed model describes the situation that GDP of Mexico strongly depends on export of gold, unemployment and currency ratio between US$ and Mexican Peso.
Key words:
GDP, Econometric model, Export of gold, "Dutch disease", Economics, Unemployment, GDP.
ГОЛЛАНДСКАЯ БОЛЕЗНЬ В МЕКСИКЕ И ЕЕ ВЛИЯНИЕ НА
ВВП.
Аннотация:
Данная статья исследует, какое влияние "голландская болезнь" имеет на экономику Мексике и как она влияет на ВВП страны. Полученная и проанализированная модель описывает ситуацию, как ВВП Мексики сильно зависит от экспорта золота, безработица и соотношение валюты между USD$ и Мексиканского Песо.
Ключевые слова: ВВП, эконометрическая модель, экспорт золота, "голландская болезнь", экономика, курс USD$/Мексиканское Песо, безработица.
Summary
This work is dedicated to the analysis of economic model in Mexico.
