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УДК 658.5:004
doi:10.18720/SPBPU/2/id21-92
Макареня Татьяна Анатольевна1,
доктор экономических наук, доцент, зав. кафедрой инженерной экономики; Али Аль-Убайди Ахмед Ибрагим Хусейн2, аспирант 2 года обучения
НЕОБХОДИМОСТЬ ПЛАНИРОВАНИЯ РАЗВИТИЯ ТОПЛИВНО-ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКОГО КОМПЛЕКСА РЕСПУБЛИКИ ИРАКА
1 2
' Россия, Ростов-на-Дону - Таганрог, Южный федеральный ниверситет,
1 mta-76@inbox.ru, Ирак, Багдад, ahmedalirussia2020@yahoo.com
Аннотация. В статье исследуется проблема развития топливно-энергетической отрасли, как стратегического конкурентного подхода в Ираке с точки зрения пер-
спективных целей развития. Сделаны выводы о тенденциях экономического развития, проблемах энергетического комплекса и даны рекомендации по вкладу в развитие экономики Ирака.
Ключевые слова: Республика Ирак, нефтедобыча, топливно-энергетический комплекс, планирование.
Tatiana A. Makarenya \
Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Head Department of Engineering Economics;
Obaidi Ahmed Ibrahim Hussein2, postgraduate student of 2 years of study
THE NEED FOR PLANNING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FUEL AND POWER COMPLEX OF THE REPUBLIC OF IRAQ
12 Russia, Rostov-on-Don - Taganrog, Southern Federal University,
1 mta76@inbox.ru
2
Iraq, Baghdad, medalirussia2020@yahoo.com
Abstract. The article examines the problem of the development of the fuel and energy of, as the strategic competitive approach in Iraq. This connection is in terms of promising development goals. Conclusions on the trends of economic development, problems of the energy complex are presented and recommendations of the Iraq economy are given.
Keywords: Republic of Iraq, oil production, fuel and energy complex, planning.
The energy sector is integral to the broader Iraqi economy. Oil and gas account for almost 60% of gross domestic product (GDP), 99% of export earnings and 90% of government revenues (World Bank, 2017): the Iraqi economy is one of the most oil-dependent in the world. The relationship between hydrocarbon revenues and the national budget is crucial and explains some of the broad macroeconomic pressures that have prevailed during times of revenue volatility (for example when oil prices dropped in 2014, the start of a period of lower oil prices). Government expenditure has closely tracked movements in oil prices, rising when they were high and falling when they were low. Such "pro-cyclical" fiscal policy has important implications for the economy as whole. At the low point in the recent oil price cycle, Iraq's monthly oil revenue fell to less than US dollars (USD) 2 billion, while fiscal obligations (e.g. salaries, pensions, social spending) were more than USD 6 billion per month, leaving a USD 4 billion deficit to honor basic spending (discounting any expenditure on capital projects). Iraq financed the deficits through a mixture of increased borrowing (including from international financial institutions) and tapping its international reserves, which fell by USD 33 billion in 2016 compared with 2013 levels.
Iraq's oil sector has navigated well a very turbulent period in the last decade, managing to nearly double its output despite the war against ISIS and large swings in the oil price. As a result, Iraq has accounted for around one-fifth of the net increase in global supply over this period, and is now the fifth largest producer in the world. Iraq's production increases by around 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) over the next 10 years. This is a smaller increase than that seen over the last decade, but still cannot be taken for granted. The next phase of Iraq's oil development will depend not only on international market conditions, but also upon three factors that are within the grasp of the Iraqi authorities: ensuring sufficient water for injection; attracting foreign capital; and a conducive political and security environment. In reaching almost 6 mb/d of production in 2030, Iraq would overtake Canada and become the world's fourth-largest producer. Progress on provision of adequate water for oil recovery is essential. Without it, production rates could struggle to climb much beyond their current levels. To reach the projected production levels, Iraq would need an additional 3 mb/d of water for injection into reservoirs.
Iraq's refining sector is not well matched to the country's needs. Only 60% of the nominal 1 mb/d of refining capacity was utilised in 2018, and the product slate is weighted heavily towards heavy fuel oil. This means high dependence on imports for many of Iraq's oil product needs, at a current annual cost of some USD 2-2.5 billion. The full rehabilitation of the Baiji refinery would help remedy the most immediate pressures. However, without an increase in upgrading or hydrotreating facilities, the surfeit of heavy fuel oil may be increasingly problematic for Iraq, especially given the likely plunge in global demand for this product as a result of new quality specifications for international marine bunker fuels.
Iraq is not short of natural gas, but it continues to use gas far less - and far less productively- than most of the countries in the region. Rising oil production has meant an increase in gas flaring to some 16 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year. The Basrah Gas Company has made recent progress and is now capturing and processing around 10 bcm of gas per year. But these efforts will need to be accelerated, particularly when considering the growing need for gas in power generation and the costly reliance on pipeline im-ports.In our outlook, Iraq's marketed gas production increases to around 50 bcm over the next decade. Given that Iraq's associated gas is ethane-rich, progress in the upstream could support a significant expansion in petrochemicals output as well. How Iraq produces and uses its gas is a bellwether for the overall process of reform and modernization. Make an efficient, well-functioning energy sector the bedrock of a more diversified and prosperous Iraq, based on: the revenues from adequate and timely investment in the up-
stream; a much more productive use of the nation's gas resources; and a step-change in the affordability, reliability and sustainability of electricity provision.
Iraq has not had the same success in developing its associated and nonassociated natural gas resources. As oil production soared, so has the amount of associated gas produced, but the capacity to capture and process this gas has not kept pace. Gas flaring increased from 12 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year in 2012 to around 16 bcm in 2018 (just over half of all gas produced). The inability to utilise its gas riches, at the same time as it has reoriented its power generation fleet from oil to gas, has led to an increasing gas deficit and Iraq now relies on imports from Iran to meet demand. This has introduced a number of vulnerabilities to Iraq's energy system; payment issues in mid-2018 led Iran to cut exports, which significantly exacerbated electricity shortages during peak seasonal demand in Iraq.
Some recent progress is noted in the start of operations of the Basrah Gas Company (BGC) to capture and process associated gas at the three "round 1 fields" of Rumaila, Zubair and West Qurna-1. By end-2018, the BGC was capturing close to 10 bcm, providing dry gas feedstock to power generators and facilitating liquefied petroleum gas exports. BGC has taken a final investment decision to increase capacity to 14.5 bcm in two years and has plans to increase this to 16.5 bcm by 2023, helping to significantly reduce flaring at the fields in which it operates. Plans to increase gas processing and use in other fields are uncertain. The operators of the Nassiriya field have announced plans to eliminate flaring entirely by 2021 and awarded a contract to Baker Hughes for gas processing facilities for 2 bcm. However, under the current contract terms, operators have no obligation to capture or use associated gas beyond their own requirements.
Recommendations
We can submit the following recommendations to develop Iraqi sector of Oil and gas:
1. Expedite the development of projects that can deliver water to the southern fields for oil recovery, notably the Common Seawater Supply Project, while encouraging companies to enhance efforts on produced water reuse and recycling.
2. Push for full implementation of gas flaring reduction projects over the next two years. Clarify ownership of produced gas and responsibilities for its productive use; develop mechanisms to monetize ethane.
3. Expedite full restoration of the Baiji refinery, which would increase Iraq's operational refining capacity by 30% and reduce the USD 2-2.5 billion bill for annual oil product imports.
4. Take four measures to enhance the immediate resilience and operational performance of the electricity system.
5. Step up network maintenance, focusing on a small number of high impact areas.
6. Purchase mobile solutions for rapid availability and locational flexibility.
7. Remunerate maintenance and efficiency upgrades for existing power plants.
8. Enforce tariff regulations for all neighborhood generators.
9. A continuous focus on network refurbishment, maintenance and upgrades.
10. Refurbish existing power plants to close the gap between available and installed capacity.
11 .Increase tariff collection for network connections, and reform grid and neighborhood tariffs to incentivize more efficient use of electricity and bring down peak demand.
12. Incentivizes investment in new capacity by offering accelerated capital recovery.
13. Develop a renewable energy industry, starting with a first round of solar PV and wind projects to build confidence, and then build on proven successes.
References
1. Iraq's Energy Sector: A Roadmap to a Brighter Future, World Energy Outlook special report , available on https://www.iea.org/reports/iraqs-energy-sector-a-roadmap-to-a-brighter-future.
УДК 004.942
doi:10.18720/SPBPU/2/id21-93
Веретенникова Елена Григорьевна1,
доцент;
Мирошниченко Ирина Иосифовна1,
доцент, канд. экон. наук; Калугян Каринэ Хачересовна3,
доцент, канд. экон. наук, доцент
АНАЛИЗ ДОСТИЖЕНИЯ KPI ПОДРАЗДЕЛЕНИЯМИ
ОРГАНИЗАЦИИ С ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕМ MICROSOFT POWER BI
123 Россия, г. Ростов-на-Дону, ФГБОУ ВО «Ростовский государственный экономический университет (РИНХ)»,
!eg_2008@mail.ru, 2iimo2@ya.ru, 3kalugyan@yandex.ru
Аннотация. В работе предлагается подход к оптимальной и обоснованной автоматизации анализа и визуализации достижения ключевых показателей эффективности (KPI) подразделениями предприятия по формированию дохода. Средства решения задачи: 1С: Предприятие, Power Query, Power Pivot, Power View.
