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MODELLING OF THE POSSIBLE INTEGRATION CONSEQUENCES OF THE ECONOMY OF UKRAINE INTO THE ECONOMIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR RUSSIA
Lesya BUYAK1,
Ternopil National Economic University, Ukraine Mariya HRYHORKIV2,
Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University, Ukraine
Abstract. The purpose of the paper is to mathematically reproduce the process of economic partnership between the two countries and its qualitative analysis, which include the following goals: to identify feasible outcomes, to formulate requirements for the selection of control parameters and coefficients, to give economic reasoning of the results of modelling and to provide alternative scenario of economic cooperation. Methodology. A method of mathematical modelling has been applied to investigate the possible socio-economic impact of integration of Ukraine into the EU economy. We are describing the basic mathematical model of the economy of Ukraine and two mathematical models of the possible convergence with the economies of the European Union or Russia. The results of modelling are reflected by the capacity of relevant dynamic systems and the quantitative distribution of savings. Results. On the basis of economic analysis of mathematical dependence, the conclusions on the possible economic consequences of integration of Ukraine into the economy of the European Union or Russia have been established. Practical implications. It has been found that a step towards the European Union (EU) requires the alteration of principles of economic management, timely government control. This should be done in the process of restructuring of social standards and commercial activity in terms of traditional forms of management of enterprises with low financial capacities. The process of convergence with the economy of Russia leads to conservation of the modern type of economy with many disadvantages of commercial management and government control as well as limitation of economic and political freedoms and growth of political instability in the country. Value/originality. The got results extend modern economic and mathematical tool for research of integration processes and acceptance of the proper economic decisions. Formalization of models of economy taking into account influence of the economic structured society on economic development allows at model level to probe difficult dynamic processes and possible consequences of integration of economy of Ukraine in the economy of European Union or Russia.
Key words: economic partnership, economic modelling, mathematical model, economic dynamics, economic structure of a society.
JEL Classification: F02, F42, C32, E25
1. Introduction
Since the establishment of independence Ukraine is deeply integrated into the global economy, however remains one of the few major countries in Europe that have not been included in integration associations. The strategic objective of Ukrainian foreign policy is its active involvement in the European integration process. Relations between the EU and Ukraine are characterized by a wide range of links. They provide trade and investment, regional cooperation and technical assistance.
A characteristic feature of the modern global development of the countries is stirring up of the development of integration processes in the whole world and Europe in particular. However, even those countries that are not part of the integration associations inevitably feel the impact of the processes. They are themselves very complex, so it is necessary to understand what we need for effective entry into the EU area and what problems may Ukraine face on its way. Regarding macroeconomic stability when joining the EU, Ukraine should boost its
Corresponding author:
1 Department of Economic Cybernetics and Informatics, Ternopil National Economic University. E-mail: [email protected]
2 Department of Economic Modeling and Business Informatics, Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University. E-mail: [email protected]
economic performance up to European standards, create a fairly developed market, consolidate the trend towards economic growth. Ukraine will also benefit from the introduction of the single currency when entering the EU. As to additional investments in the economy of Ukraine, the European market is a large market for products sale and source for meeting the needs.
However, structural defects of foreign trade cooperation have become apparent. They lead to the rapid growth of negative trade balance. Economic disadvantages stipulate loss of competitiveness of certain sectors, the complexity of transition to European level of prices, allocation of quotas of certain products. The transfer of potentially hazardous industries to Ukraine, purely raw-exports role of our country, low-paid manpower, growth of demographic cut and illegal migration, all of them are threatening to Ukraine.
Ukraine is interested in strengthening of economic cooperation with the Customs Union countries, since a basis of interest in cooperation with members of the Customs Union is a strategic economic interests of Ukraine. That is the creation of a favourable and predictable business environment in their mutual relations; promotion for the restructuring and modernization of the national economy, with a significant increase of mutual turnover of high-technology products and services; coordination in the markets of third countries; increasing the share of the real sector of economy and strategic industries through industrial and technological cooperation among the enterprises of Ukraine and Russia in the fields of high technology sector, energy sector, mechanical engineering, space, electronics, shipbuilding and aerospace, energy, transport and agricultural engineering, chemical, light and food industries, agriculture and others. The structure of foreign trade of Ukraine displays its simultaneous orientation towards both integration associations.
Therefore, the objectives of creating the conditions for sustainable economic development requires adequate foreign economic strategy that would give answers to issues related to the development of appropriate positioning of the state in the international division of labour. In particular, the issue of benefits and risks Ukraine might face by implementing alternative scenarios of co-operation with the Customs Union is becoming of utmost importance.
The concerns of bilateral relations between Ukraine and Russia are reflected in numerous works of local scientists V.S. Budkin, V.M. Heyets, L.I. Fedulova, V.K. Khaustova, L.V. Shynkaruk. For example, a recent scientific report of experts from the Institute of Economics and Forecasting NASU (National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine) has results of studies on the possible effects of trade conflicts between Ukraine and Russia, and ways of cooperation with the Russian side in various sectors of engineering. At the same time, an attempt to predict the Ukrainian-Russian cooperation, considering modern realities of international economic relations in the post-Soviet areas, was made by Russian scientists, such as O.A. Bazaluk, N.N. Bondariova,
N.I. Komkov, VV. Kotilko and others. Full description of research results follow in (Buyak & Pauchok, (2012). Some of the features of modern Ukrainian economic relations are covered in the conceptual framework of this research in (Buyak & Pauchok, (2013). Certain issues of potential economic interaction of Ukraine with EU countries have been taken as the research material from works in (Buyak, (2013). In has beed emphasized that introduction of commercial practices and social standards of the European Union (Toshkov, (2011) in our country, will lead to rapid transition of socio-economic processes (which require appropriate regulation) and the convergence of low-production economy of our country with highly productive economies in the EU without giving up modern principles of economic management in Ukraine. It will also stipulate simplification of the economic structure of society in Ukraine. Modelling the quantitative characteristics of the possible integration of Ukraine into the Customs Union (CU) was carried out regarding the existence and dynamics of the analysis of CU before and after its foundation. The analysis ofthe results of quantitative assessments of changes in terms of trade and their impact on individual members of the integration bloc has also been factored in. The experience of forecasting the results of Ukraine's accession to the WTO and the actual performance of export-import activities over the next three years have been analysed. However, these studies have not examined the possible effects of alternative convergence of Ukraine's economy with the economies of the European Union or Russia.
These processes can be possibly predicted in the light of synergy. First of all, it is necessary to analyse the existing system, develop a list of factors that negatively impact its self-organization and determine the critical moment of bifurcation. Today social model of Ukraine has no balance, along with this, full of aspirations for drastic changes towards existing European standards. The European social model is a balance between economic prosperity and social justice. It provides full employment, quality jobs, equality of chances, social protection. This is one of the facets that distinguishes Europe, where social progress in the postwar years, followed closely by the economic growth from the American model, where a small group of individuals gained an advantage due to the greater number of people (Malkov, Malinetskiy & Kurdyumov, (2002). The level of welfare of Ukrainians is considerably lower than the European standards. Its increase is solely possible after fair redistribution of income which is received from the business between owners and employees, overcoming of tax minimization schemes and shadow economy. The solution is to develop new scientific projects, IT technologies, further upgrading of all levels of society and production (Toshkov, (2011).
The objective of the article is to mathematically reproduce the process of economic partnership between the two countries and its qualitative analysis, which include the following goals: to identify feasible outcomes,
formulate requirements for the selection of control parameters and coefficients, to give econo mic reasoning of the results of modelling and proviTit alternative scenario of economic cooperation.
2. Conceptual fundamentals of the modelling
Let us consider the conceptual framework of model of economy of Ukraine and take twogroups of participants -workers (their number is nx) an db usiness own ers (their number is n2). Their amount of savings corresponds to uv u2. Part ax (¿=1,2) of savings tUey spend on privote consumption, part P1 (¿=1,2) - for industrial consumption (a1=1 F(P2u2lp); Pi=0; a2+P2 = 1). Business owners produce one type of aggregate produet for the price p.
Amount of product belonging to business owner is described by the productiori tUnrtioo FS00ru2l g), depending on capital provision P2u21 p. Amount of consumed product is described by the function of consumption Q(alui 1 p) depen&irg on tiie ourehasmg power alui l p (i=1,2). This function is piecewise convex. It has a curve in the area between purcOas iug ]rower at the level of consumption of daily goods and durable goods (Chernavskiy, Starkov & Shcherbskcv, (SO0d).
Workers earn salary sx and pay income tax Kr Business owners pay tax on payroll budget x2 and inco me tax k2 and incur production expenses \2.
Let us work out an equation of tTe moriel o f economy of Ukraine (without external influences). The rate of savings change u1 of workers is proportional to differencn betwaen their income (salary sx), minus tao k1 and spending for personal consumption:
TTUp = Sptr — KptngQnPpUr/ggwPrtt) o a)
wgere np ttt is a random function with iero expectation that simulates random revenues and expe uditures of workers.
Tire rats of naviv—s nSbpsioess ownett h proportional to diffTtencs brnveen thesr profit sn sales andexpenditures an Talary for workers and on production needs as well as p enson al coosumo ti on:
P^^—Z o• gQnmuJg)- gQnmoJ g )n
Te o- top n
no01 Q w ^ - Si vvPpF^nn g ) w note t, (2) iro
wSere n^tt t, - is a randomfunctionwith zero expectation that simulates rao°nm resenneo anp expeo&tures of own sr a.
The rate oP price change p of goods depends on the diffTrenee between She actusi conoumgtion lo^ workers QlppUjOg) andi n ParS- V «eianket basfei» ptt which is subjr ctively p laoned bymo nopoly onorket:
mpoPSrinpw/oO-QiSwmv), (3)
wherp 0 sir ip^rUia l)er2QeSee, a (ct is a random function with zero expectation that simulates random deviations price. Equation(3) corresponds to a closed economy in
which most citizens; cajinot achieve consumption level higher thin daily lician need s.
The solution of equatfo ns (1) and (2) are random valhcs thtt are Scsneiblne tss cdnesical distributions R1 ht= R2Cu) t tndie ntmgl^lsiie number eaparticgants in the ecchomy shat have savings [u, u + du]. Since equation (lhh (2) ate of Laagenin tyeec iv the stationary case thefi solutions are describing wesl known distributions (TCkhonot 'l08C)S:
Ch1lst1) = JRc0exeei^c-SVCeeet)/CCVSt
Rtet (tt RM oetn{gSV sids,)aGlit
where +.m )0t0 ai^s noonaiizaeioe cef^ifivve^l^si and G1, G2 atre tROoe f)gtamt;teirs dependent cn fimcCfons |1, f2. Parametets Vv V2 aredescribin0 theeffective demand:
^ Oi) = [o"' If tC c k ) c 0° )f(d ePt] hdt,
asei ,ds 1 = 10= [^iîliiSCl {aQiedll Ptg lS+Xs) °1 tclSS + 0St PF )Psds! n}]h« S.
Since, =, Rt functitas are statittivaHy in=rrenXenC, tLe potentia1 nf =oe dynomis sc's(em (lp g2) ^^^uaIt tge sum of potentiyls
V les,(s) = Lte^ + Ls le1,es).
toecn)iitll1^(M1,ssg is describing v etcrfate m fXt rasg of hekted u=u2. tec ^^ ^^^^^^ the ^^^^^^^ of weAeas u1 = u* = (utst iOuc h or e c l osc te dheia a cim al value. Omit thr snftu eumOea in thc savings nf f uiiness owners. The funadson
Vte) = 0meie). Sd+
is doscribis^a octesdial of letssnesa on^rs forthe value u11 cotiui olS 0ec workem' sevings a+V determines the effective demand of producers as well as consumers at th r scm u time, Th e nppso priaVe dis tribution of business owaeг(^l^]гinfs (G2 is ccplaevd teith G):
r(P)=Rii0exeSfSm(ep/cS tc ir)
The graphics of functions V(u), R(u) are shown in Figure 1.
3. hPnthem yitc mo gel oe econ oaank convergence wash (hn xionom^ ^^^^^^^^ Uniom
Ls( up coneidea alosa cec mo Pel wili chant- (S)+kd if imalemc^atim o) aeromsP which meet legal standards anL l^rsptic( af eaondmic; management intheEU,comes possible. Some features of the implementation of this practice were provided by draft treaty of EU (Hnativ, KottaobiL UokarcSLe, (2011) ).
After the ]so ssibleentry of Ukraine into the EU, business owten ueteivx mcame from exports of goods to the EU at priac in +hc amounts s^e Qtti :
k-p = -eamet PQleJp) + Md )(1 c c PQ Sasusl P)c
ht its j(
- +m) 0i - ek + m ) pf (es/p t+Vet), (2e)
es _
where^ iscustomstariff, Ç2(t) isarandomfunctionthat simulates deflectionofentrepreneurs'savings.
Vol. 2,No. 1, 2016-
Under the terms of compliance with the European practice of economic management, pricing ^wtill depend not en the subjective planning (3), but on the difference between the demand for the protucg and supehy
dP = e
dt
(3e)
YqQ'Q Ua P '/p)~n2F{ fillip) _ i=i
Dynamic system (2e) is described pQ a potential of: ^)(Mi>M2) = j- ["i+i {PQ {amlpt- (f+Xtf)+PQ(t)(f ~P) -
+ K^pFfiPm)/ p)] dm2.
If w) take Ve(m1,22) = V1(m1) + Ve)(mf,mi) into account, with f j =t ta = const we willget
Vetm) = V{f2,f). (4e)
Appropriate distribution of business owners' savings:
R (t) = R20 exp (-2V(t)/G2). (5e)
The graphics of functions Ve (u), Re (u) (formula (4e), (5e) and (4), (5) similar) are shown in Figure 1. Equation (l), (2e), (3e) and functions Ve(u),Re(u) are describing the possible impact of the European practice of managementon the economy of Ukraine.
Letus considertheeconomic conclusions arising from the mathematical properties of functions V(u), R(u), Ve (u), Re (u). The properties of these functions regarding the economy of Ukraine have been deeply studied. The potential of our economy has two minima that meet steady states of low-production and high-performance aredescribedin Fig.l (Theyareindicated as U1, U2). At points of the minimum F(=) distribution R(u) has got maximawhichare describingthemain economic groups of theparticipants ofeconomy.Themajority of producers in Ukraine have low financial capacity that corresponds to the maximum R(u) atthe U1 point.
Under the model (l),(2e), (3e)convergence of low-production Ukrainian economy with highly productiveeconomiesin theEUleads to increasedfinancialcapacity ofparticipants on the left maximum U1 distribution R(u). In particular, this is predetermined by the demand for their products in other countries. Consequently,the extremumsofV¡ (u)potential and Re(u)distribution areshifting totheright: Ule > U1. This successful management of the economy at the macro level is the result of growing financial capacity of workers and economic activity of business owners to the left maximum of Redistribution.
Extremum U2 meets the high-performance economic status. Principles of management of Ukrainian and European business owners with u>U2 savings are significantly different. A unique respect for the economic participants with weaker financial capacity is dominating in western countries. This majority of the economies of the West refer to the right maximum ofdistribution and axis of coordinate
of this maximum is shifting to the right. Participants of Ukraine's economy from the principles of behaviour u>U2 area, especially those from the right end of the distribution R(u) maintain the behaviour du2/dt > 0 (where private savings are not reduced) Q(ui / p) < Q0 (with restriction of citizens' income) which are being implemented by economic methods (privatization, displacement of competition, monopolization of markets and pricing), andby means of government management (complication of the legal framework of economy management, restriction of licensing, financial requirement, etc.). As a result, Ukraine's economy is operating as «Maxwell demon» which is «sorting» the participants of the economy according to their financial capacity and makes it impossible to «mixing them». This leads to shifting of the right maximum number of savings participants U2 < U2e to the left side in the model, and reduction of the space under the graph Re(u) on the u > U^** field.
The described change of management principles of business owners with high income u>U2 is not beneficial for them in terms of short-term economic assessments. Authorities in Ukraine are not ready to abandon adopted "oligarch" principles of economy. That is why there is natural resistance to the possible convergence of Ukraine's economy with the European Union (Buyak, (2013).
Fig. 1b with shaded area shows how the economic structure of society after the beginning of convergence of Ukraine's economy with the economy of the European Union will change. Shaded area above the line R(u) is describing the number of owners who have improved financial capacity by increasing the purchasing power of citizens with permanent income and as a result of changes
Fig. 1. Illustration of the change in the economic structure
of society during the convergence of Ukrainian and the EU economies
in the structure of expenditures of producers with a high income. The latter reduces the cost of private consumption, together with the volume of deposits and investments in other countries and therefore increase investment flow in the domestic economy. Fig. 1B has a dotted line that shows the change in the economic structure of society as a result of investing in production by business owners with high incomes. There fore it is necessary to produce raw materials with high level of processing and provide effective sales techniques etc.
Introduction of «social standards» is also associated with the convergence with the economies of the European Union. According to European standards of economic management (to prevent social tensions) it is commonly accepted to limit the number of people with a very high income u > U™ (see segment D). To do this, a method of progressive taxation and antitrust regulation are being implemented. Restructuring of society is marked by arrows on Fig. 1B (transition from areas A and D to C) is good for society because it leads to the creation of single modal distribution of the number of people according to their income. First of all, the restructuring is favourable for business owners with average income from area C and skilled workers (who receive large salaries).
Social EU standards differ from the social structure of Ukrainian society. In particular, conventional boundaries of «middle class» [Km, uemax] does not equal to conventional boundaries of the distribution maximum Re(u). These differences lead to rapid transients (Buyak & Pauchok, (2013)), which will require appropriate regulation. Distribution Re(u) in the area B is diminishing: bigger financial capacity is resulting in decreasing number of enterprises with low productivity technologies. A fragment of the distribution is indicated by a dotted line. However, according to EU standards in the field B the distribution has to increase Re(u) (number of workers is proportional to their skills area B). The corresponding line graph is indicated by a bar-dotted line. This discrepancy is connected with the activities of companies with low financial capacity, particularly small farms. This contradiction is between national economic culture of the Ukrainian and EU standards need to be addressed without breaking the development of economic and cultural pro cesses typical for Ukraine and preventing Russian propagandr in the matter. In particular, it is important to rmnrovr the technical equipment of individual agricultural and crthrr farms. The economic structure of Ukraine's economy is undergoing simplification unless you take care oC tVr elements of social structures that are illustrated by the fragment of distribution Re(u) u eu eu k . So, from the above mentioned the following conclusions occur= During the convergence of the economy of Ukruine with the EU economy social and economic interesti of the three participants of the economy be come app nrent: EU citizens, citizens of Ukraine with small and medium income (see areas A, B, C), citizens of Ukraine with
high income (see area D). The introduction of European standards requires regulatory protection of small businesses with low financial capacity, especially in traditional forms of management.
4. Mathematical model of economic convergence with Russia
Let us consider the features of convergence of Ukraine's economy with the economy of Russia. Modern Russian authorities are linking the economy with politics and it is the foundation of power and military doctrine of Russia, after all it is a common practice of commercial activities. The impact of policies on the economy can be noticed the fact that prices, tariffs, foreign exchange rates, volume of deliveries (and other items of trade relations) are set up on the basis of two factors: market value, and the «political distance» between Russia and the commercial contractor. For example, the price of gas determines the «geographical and political» space between Russia and the importer ofgas.
Another feature of the Russian economy is a frequent significant change in the scope ofsupply (imports, exports) as well as voluntary options parameters of commodity-based economy (prices, tariffs, rates) influenced by «change of real or imaginary political environment». Cooperative relations between Russian and Ukrainian enterprises are being ceased by Russian side, referring to certain political motives. Instead of increasing access of Ukrainian producers to the Russian market (according to preliminary political agreements) Russia is terminating exports of Ukrainian confectionery dairy and meat products, causing major losses to producers. In addition, local market research shows that in some regions Russian non-residents support the activities of privatized enterprises, while others cease their activities. It shows that the Russian policy of «intermittent strong alteration of parameter in economic relations» has a temporal and spatial aspects. Finally, it affects the financial position of business owners and workers.
So, regardless of the circumstances, commercial and political hooprgandaiRussia is trying to influence the economia coadcCioas af enterprises of Ukraine through intermittrnV changcs ih activity in economic relations. From a mnihemrtical pomt of vtew this means that the paacmateas oS correepondinr mathematical models are random va lnev with n ^nifica nt variance.
Drnaimcs o°pavidgr of wohkers depends on the ratio of sirpph an d C em and and xandom VrncOion ¿¿(i):
Uh ~
_L = ConOd noh d oQ {coral o 0 ng(i). (1r)
Variaoce ¿0=) ic biggoa tdaothe variance ¿¿(i). Typical duraSionof {ha ahange gO(i) is the length of one quarter.
For apossibleconvergence betweenUkraine'seconomy with the economyofRussia,thedynamicsofthesavingsof businessownersalso depends onthedifferencebetween income fromsales andexpenditureson consumptionand production needs:
Vf- = —¿06Q(a,2i/6) + P(t)Q(t)[l - j(t)i - 6Q(av2/6°) -
Cil O2 (n(
-0(1 + X2011 - (¿00 + K2 )pF (p2Ul! V) + l2 (ti, (^r)
02
w0ere pit) oo a random price of imports to Russia, ff(t) is arandom lunction deccпbine the customr tariff; Q(t) is a rondom vo-im) 02 csnrrCs ito liussia; À2(t) is a ran-lom c-anQe o. production expenscs caused Cy the change sf Russian certifie-Kn reqeicements fos (mp oris 2rom Ukceinn |2(i) is s jc-cci^om .u^ctc+n aith zéro ma(hemaCQai tonoumotion (Pat Qmuletes oievit-ion of ondbceiture and incom n -011 os.
Rendons functions iii^ eqcctioc (2r) conlnm Iwa :sdidiiait^e romoon++ts: n(it eioniL^i a t;it trenPs )h)t nrscci0e tC2( impact of commerccal circurrrtances andrandomfUnction with zero men+; nSc- r<mf]i^ct;t eoCtioany motivate6 pCac :
-KO= c + 6i(i-i ¿+0 = .5+ 6,10: Q>(o) = Q + NQ(ttcm)()) = ?ntes(tt ti
Substituting tCfg;se fonctions im équation (2r), and wrlting sopasaOeiis dcderminfs1:ic end tandoirn semmands, we will ge( t+1 Qol( owf njj e qoaiion
-j n ■S0c^QNioi^^dn{ a)1--)')+p QI( - ji - pQj m 2 2 PQ -
v--0n-i(e v xi)i) -fa k+2 )pF(ppJP) + ^(t), 23s)
o2 +
wPert th2 amohd +f rao60m cummtoi+s whi ch
ars grouped dcQing; oon+cioiiineh)6uation t2g;^ i^i:o (=r).
D'jonrse.iai Sys(emo t6' CjIrn a+d htve (he ^otential Vi-t) 0ng
se2(^(ci^2)1=.f0"-^t
oiii()tcr( (( ;
pQ{(XF/p)-
p Q[l-fi]~,
-x2)si -(Â + k) pf ( ppil p )J du2,
th at i) Vt (uo,u2) = V (u 1 ) - Va 2 ()1, u2 ) or u1 = u* = const with U) = u
Vr (u ) = K (22*, tt c. (4r)
Appropria(e dittribution of savings for business owners is thefollowing:
Ra(e) = R20exp(-2Va(e)/G2 ), (5r)
where (î20 is acoefficientofnormalization, G is aparameterdependingonthefunction E2(t ). The schemes offunctions graphics Vr (u ), Rr (u ), those arefunctions(4r),(5r),shownin Fig. 2.
The function E2 (t) simulates discrete economic relations with Russia, which are politically motivated by Russian authorities. Therefore, the average position of balance Url, Ur 2 lies to the right of the relevant provisions of balance Ul, U2 . That is how a group of participants of economy (workers and business owners) appear. They are economically dependent on faltering exports to Russia. Dotted arrows in Fig. 2.b mark shifting of participants of the economy from the group of producers for the domestic market to a group of importers in Russia. The area of shaded elements
in this figure indicates the number of participants of the economy that support economic policy of Russia. The second maximum R (u) lies to the right of the second maximum R(u). Variance E2(t) is bigger than the variance
42 it )•
This suggests that the distance between the balance position in low- and high-performance conditions descrigrd bypotential14g, is bigger than that distance to the system described by potential (4r):
I(U),V(U))|< 1(1 rl,ViiU-))|,
where the symbol indicates the standard in the space ofvalues.This means that during the intermittent economic interaction with Russia, the possibility of accidental transfer of enterprises with high-performance into low-performance conditions is decreasing, in particular on the basisofthe phenomenon of stochastic resonance.
5.Conclusion
Trade with the countries which are non-members of the CU remainsakeyfactorofeconomic development of the CU countries. Secondly, there are no definitive assessments of the positive or negative effect of integration within the Customs Union for now. The lack of significant effects of reintegrationfor mutual cooperation, possibly indicate the error of Russian experts concerning assumptions of high growth potential in member-countries as a result of the creationof newintegrationbloc. The results of modelling and integrated assessment of scenarios of interaction of Ukraine with the CU show that the most appropriate scenario for Ukraine is the following: «Ukraine out of the MS: status quo +». In this scenario, Ukraine keeps the advantages of being open for cooperation with key partners, and has benefits from the strengthening of economic sovereignty, based on diversified development strategy and energy efficient economy.
Comparison of the economic impact of a possible convergence of Ukraine with the economies of the European Union and Russia. Comparison of the economic
Fig. 2. Illustration of the change in the economic structure
of society during the convergence of Ukrainian and Russian economies
impact of a possible convergence of Ukraine with the economies of the European Union and Russia leads to the following conclusions. Convergence of Ukraine with Europe requires from Ukrainian enterprises the improvement in all aspects of management in order to step into the EU market, which is politically affordable. A prerequisite for this is a change in the principles ofeconomic management. During the convergence with the EU it is necessary to introduce «social standards», use special measures to preserve traditional forms of business management, despite their temporary low
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Леся БУЯК, Мария ГРИГОРКИВ
МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ВОЗМОЖНЫХ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЙ ИНТЕГРАЦИИ ХОЗЯЙСТВА УКРАИНЫ В ЭКОНОМИКУ ЕВРОСОЮЗА И РОССИИ
Аннотация. Целью работы является математическое моделирование процесса экономического партнерства двух стран и качественный анализ математической модели, который включает следующее: наметить пути возможного развития событий, сформулировать требования по выбору управляющих параметров и коэффициентов модели, предоставить экономическое толкование результатам моделирования, реальную альтернативу сценария экономической кооперации. Методика. Для исследования возможных социально-экономических последствий интеграции хозяйства Украины в экономику Евросоюза или России применены методы математического моделирования. Стационарные решения моделей отражено потенциалами соответствующих динамических систем и распределением количества участников экономики по сбережениям. Результаты. Построены базовая математическая модель экономики Украины и две математические модели возможного ее сближением с экономикой Евросоюза или России, используя теорию экономической динамики. На основе экономического анализа математических зависимостей установлено выводы о возможных экономических последствиях интеграции хозяйства Украины в экономики Евросоюза или России. Практическое значение. В частности, установлено, что сближение с Евросоюзом требует предварительной изменения принципов хозяйственного управления, своевременных мер государственного регулирования при реформировании социальных стандартов и практики коммерческой деятельности, особенно - в отношении традиционных форм хозяйствования предприятий с низкой финансовой возможностью. Сближение с экономикой России предопределяет консервацию современного типа экономики со многими недостатками коммерческого управления и регулирования, а также - приводит к ограничению экономических и политических свобод граждан, усиливает политическую нестабильность в стране. Значение/оригинальность. Полученные результаты расширяют современный экономико-математический инструментарий исследования интеграционных процессов и принятия соответствующих экономических решений. Формализация моделей экономики с учетом влияния экономически структурированного общества на экономическое развитие позволяет на модельном уровне исследовать сложные динамические процессы интегрирования хозяйства Украины в экономику Евросоюза или России.
