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13East European Scientific Journal #7(71), 2021 51
ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ
УДК 656.61 - ГРНТИ 73.34.75
Абрамов А.Д.
Херсонский Национальный Технический Университет -Бериславское шоссе, 24, Херсон, Херсонская область
Абрамов Г. С.
Херсонская Государственная Морская Академия -Проспект Ушакова, 20, Херсон, Херсонская область
МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКИЕ МОДЕЛИ ТРЕНДОВ РОСТА МОРСКИХ ГРУЗОПЕРЕВОЗОК
UDK 656.61 - GRNTI 73.34.75
Abramov A.D.
Kherson National Technical University -Beryslavs'ke Hwy, 24, Kherson, Khersons'ka oblast, 73008
Abramov G.S. Kherson State Maritime Academy -Ushakova Ave, 20, Kherson, Kherson Oblast, 73009
MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF MARITIME CARGO SHIPPING GROWTH TRENDS
Сфера морских перевозок значительно воздействует на социально-экономическое развитие и инвестиционный потенциал государств. На графиках трендов роста грузоперевозок отчетливо виден заметный спад, связанный с мировым экономическим кризисом 2008-2009 года, и текущий кризис в связи с COVID имеет очень похожие показатели. Это говорит о том, что хотя перспективы развития морских перевозок в целом представляются позитивными, существует неопределенность в отношении устойчивости экономического оживления и связанных с этих последствий для сектора морских перевозок. Такая неопределенность в значительной мере обусловлена сочетанием геополитических и экономических рисков, проводимой торговой политикой и структурными сдвигами, такими как перебалансировка экономики Китая, замедление роста глобальных производственно-сбытовых цепочек, изменения в мировом энергетическом балансе, и текущий кризис Однако более пристальный анализ динамики морских перевозок по отдельным видам грузов позволяет получить более четкое представление об изменениях в активности. Для этого на основе статистических данных есть возможным построение математических моделей, описывающих рост морского грузооборота и получение прогнозных оценок (в млрд тонно-миль и процентах) изменений грузооборота по отдельным видам грузов.
The maritime shipping sector has a considerable influence in socioeconomic development and investment potential of governments. Graphs of maritime shipping growth trends show a considerable decline related to the global economic crisis of 2008-2009, and the picture after the ongoing COVID crisis shows very similar figures. This shows that although maritime shipping overall has a positive growth outlook, there is an uncertainty regarding the stability of economical growth and related consequences for the maritime shipping sector. However, a closer look at the maritime shipping dynamics across various cargo types allows for a clearer picture of how maritime shipping can continue to develop. To that end, we can analyze past developments in maritime shipping and build mathematical models based on the statistical data available, which would describe the growth of maritime shipping and provide forecasts for throughput of each individual cargo type.
Ключевые слова: морские перевозки, математическое моделирование, статистика, прогнозы.
Keywords: maritime shipping, mathematical models, statistics, forecast.
Introduction. Analyses by the UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) show consistent growth of global maritime shipping, which will depend on further improvement of global economical conditions [1]. Also, graphs of maritime shipping growth trends show a considerable decline related to the global economic crisis of 2008-2009, and the picture after the ongoing COVID crisis shows very similar figures. This shows that although maritime shipping overall has a positive growth outlook, there is an uncertainty regarding the stability of economical growth and related consequences for the maritime shipping sector. This uncertainty first of all is due to
geopolitical and economic risks from trade politics and structural shifts, such as economics rebalancing in China, the decline in growth of global production-supply chains, changes in the global energetic balance, and the ongoing crisis. Also contributing to this is the emergence of new tendencies, in particular the spread of digital technologies which may change the face of maritime shipping as well as the streams and patterns of maritime shipping. It is still unclear how these factors would develop and how they would support or restrict the growth in maritime shipping. It is evident that further monitoring and evaluation is required. However, a closer look at the maritime shipping
52 East European Scientific Journal # 7(71), 2021 dynamics across various cargo types allows for a clearer picture of the scale of such growth.
The goal of this work is to analyze developments in maritime shipping and build mathematical models based on the statistical data in [1], [2], which would describe the growth of maritime shipping and provide forecasts (in bln ton-miles and percent) for throughput of each individual cargo type.
Main section. The maritime shipping sector has a considerable influence in socioeconomic development and investment potential of governments. Acting as a global resource distribution complex, international shipping connects manufacturing capacities to international consumer markets. Despite the COVID crisis, the global economy keeps striving to recover and gradually diversify shipping streams. The largest throughput in the Pacific is seen in the North American consumer markets, importing mainly high added-value good. Raw material exports into Asian countries also balances out the tonnage. Under the volatile demand conditions, cargo streams in other regions are expecting only minor growth after the recession. Even so, the long-term outlook for global container shipping volumes remains positive.
An important part of improving efficiency and safety in global container shipping is the improvement in cargo loading and unloading processes, where a perennial problem is placing the containers in such a way that they wouldn't require additional rearrangement (shifting) on board, from vessel to shore, and vice versa. Container shipping procedures are being streamlined to such a degree that it is possible to get an estimate on the time of arrival of a certain container from shipside to an automotive platform within 15 minutes of accuracy.
The global tendencies that continue to definite the dynamics in container shipping is the volatility in consumer demand and the excess supply of line shipping as a product. These tendencies are the result of the continued growth of the line shipping fleet. In just February of 2017, container line shipping was being handled by over 6.000 vessels with a capacity of 255.480.383 tons which translates into 20.650.250 TEU, including 5.108 specialised vessels reserved for ISO-containerised cargo.
The largest container ship at the time had been OOCL Hong Kong, its 21.000+ TEU capacity considered to be almost at the limit of what could be possible, as it approached the capacity of the Suez Canal. Despite the safety concerns about the continuing size race among container vessels, several even larger container ships have entered service since then, including HMM Algeciras, the current largest container ship with a capacity of 23.964 TEU. The aforementioned safety concerns were not unfounded, given the infamous Suez Canal incident with the vessel Ever Given at its 20.124 TEU.
UNCTAD's review points out that in 2017 growth rates in maritime shipping went up and reached 4%, which is the highest rate in the last five years [1]. Thanks to the revitalization of the global economy and
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expansion of international trade, the volume of global maritime shipping has reached an estimate 10.7 billion tons, wherein almost half of said growth is owed to dry bulks and container shipments. After low growth rates over the previous two years, the volume of container shipping has increased in 2017 by 6.4%. At the same time, dry bulk shipping has grown by 4% compared to the 1.7% in 2016. Raw oil shipping has grown by 2.4% compared to the 4% of 2016, whereas oil product and gas shipments have grown by a 3.9%. Historically, developing countries have been the primary suppliers of bulk raw products with low costs, however in recent years their role has changed. Developing countries have become major global points of export and import. 2014 has been the cutoff point, where the share of developing countries in the total volume of shipped (imported) cargo for the first time exceeded the share of loaded (exported) cargo. This change underlines the strategic role of developing countries as the main driving force of global maritime shipping, and is evidence of the expansion of their participation in global production-shipping chains [3].
Although many of these same trends have persisted over the years, the picture changed dramatically for the short term in 2020. With 2019 showing some of the lowest performance indicators since the 2008-2009 crisis already, the COVID pandemic in 2020 has severely impacted the global economy, and inevitably that impact was shared by the maritime shipping industry. Facing a decline of roughly 4% in volume, recent UNCTAD projections point to a recovery of 4.8% in the following year, although whether or not these figures would hold depends on a plethoora of factors that can significantly impact the actual figure.
Further shaping the maritime shipping dynamics are the trade tensions between major global economies, with uncertainty in regard to policies, and overall trends towards trade protectionism noot only in the US but also in Europe. Although several steps have been made in 2020 to remedy these tensions to a certain degree (trade talks between the US and China, as well as between the UK and the European Union), their effectiveness remains to be seen.
While the major economies received the greatest impact from the pandemic, developing countries continued their pattern of growth, still contributing positively to the outlook for globalized production processes and material shipping required to implement them. A closer look shows a clear dominance of Asia in terms of such trade, contributing significantly to the manufacturing and value chains. Much of the growth can be attributed to rapidly expanding countries, most notably China, which contributed to a flip of the historic pattern wherein developing countries would load large volumes of low-value resources to developed countries. With the change in this pattern, developing countries now unload more significant quantities of goods required for their development, as there is scope for further diversification in their economies.
1 - Maritime shipping throughput divided by cargo types, 2000-2018 (bln ton-miles) [1]
Based on Clarksons Research statistics on various maritime cargo shipments in 2000-2018, we have performed a regression-correlation analysis and received linear regression equations which describe
shipping trends of chemical products, liquids, container shipments, and other cargo types. For chemical products:
Y1=(549.2±9.3) + (28.777±0.885)X; R2=0.984; CT=21.1;
For natural gas: Y2=(477.8±29.8)+(65.851±2.825)X; R2=0.970; a=67.4; For oil:
Y3=(9207.7±180.5)+(215.95±17.13)X; R2=0.903; a=408.9;
For container shipments: Y4=(3177.1±U9.0)+(351.59±U.29)X; R2=0.983; a=269.6;
For mainline dry bulks: Y5=(5591.8±194.3)+(678.37±18.44)X; R2=0.988; a=440.4;
For other dry shipments: Y6=(6374.0±222.1)+(291.05±21.08)X; R2=0.918; a=503.4;
For the overall shipments: Y7=( 25377.7±500.3)+(1631.6±47.5)X; R2=0.986; ct=1133.8;
where R2 is the determination coefficient, g - standard deviation (standard error), X = current year - 2000.
Regression formulae display standard errors for coefficients.
Each model has a high rate of adequacy, as the determination coefficient is close to 1, and have a comparatively low standard error for the regression, which ensures an acceptable accuracy of the estimation.
The regression models received allow for an evaluation of the yearly growth in the throughput of corresponding cargo type (pessimistic and optimistic estimates):
for chemicals, 27.9 to 29.7 bln ton-miles; for natural gas, 63 to 68.7 bln ton-miles;
for crude oil, 198.8 to 233.1 bln ton-miles;
for container shipments, 340.3 to 362.9 bln ton-miles;
for mainline dry bulks, 659.9 to 696.81 bln ton-miles;
for other dry shipments, 270 to 312.1 bln ton-miles;
for overall volume of shipments, 1584.1 to 1679.1 bln ton-miles.
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Fig. 2 - Linear regressions of chemical, natural gas, and oil shipment growth, 2000-2018 (bln ton-miles)
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Fig.3 - Linear regressions of container and dry bulk shipment growth, 2000-2018 (bln ton-miles)
Based on the models received we can also perform forecasting (extrapolation) for volumes of maritime shipments in the following years. The corresponding estimates show that for the period of 2019-2023, shipment volumes in the following cargo types would grow to the following rates: for chemicals, 2.4%-2.6%; for natural gas, 3.4%-3.8%; for crude oil, 1.5%-1.6%; for container shipments, 3.2%-3.6%; for mainline dry bulks, 3.3%-3.7%; for other dry shipments, 2.3%-2.4%;
for overall volume of shipments, 2.7%-2.9%.
Conclusions. Based on the models above, throughout 2019-2023 the total average growth rates for global maritime shipping will be between 1.5% and 3.8%. The shipment volume is expected to rise across all sectors, with the biggest growths in container and dry bulk shipments. Shipments of liquids are also expected to grow, albeit slower than other market segments, which agrees with the tendencies seen earlier.
The above regression analysis is based on statistics from 2000-2018, so the forecast for the following years
56 East European Scientific Journal # 7(71), 2021 is done with the assumption that the same conditions persist. Recent events (the COVID-19 pandemic and the global crisis it caused) are force-majeure conditions, which would ultimately disrupt the forecast.
However, analysis of the events following the economic crisis of 2008-2009 shows that after a break in the curve (a more or less sharp decline) the growth in maritime shipment resumes at almost the same rate.
Thus, after an inevitable decline in maritime shipping in 2020-2021, there is hope for its continued growth at the rates previously seen. Forecasting in this regard can be resumed when factual values for the decline in 2020-2021 would be made known.
Sources.
1. UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2018 (UNCTAD/RMT/2018) [Digital resource] / United Nations Publications - Digital data. - [New York:
УДК 338.242.2
ГРНТИ 06.39.41
United Nations Publications, 2018] - Link: https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/rmt2018_ru. pdf (access date - 28.10.2019) - As titled on screen.
2. Clarksons Research [Digital resource] / [Вебсайт] - Digital data. - [London: Clarksons Research Services Ltd., 2017] - Link: https://www.crsl.com/ (access date - 28.10.2019) - As titled on screen.
3. Siba E. Sow M. Strengthening regional value chains: What's the role of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement? Africa in Focus. [Digital resource] / Brookings Institution - Digital data. - [Washington: Brookings Institution, 2018] - Link: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2018/03/21/strengthening-regional-value-chains-whats-the-role-of-the-african-continental-free-trade-agreement/ (access date - 28.10.2019) - As titled on screen.
Дегтярева Ольга Ильинична
доцент кафедры менеджмента, маркетинга и ВЭДМГИМО (У) МИД РФ, 119454 г. Москва, проспект Вернадского, 76
ОРГАНИЗАЦИЯ СИСТЕМЫ РИСК-МЕНЕДЖМЕНТА В КОМПАНИИ EQUINOR ASA
Degtyareva O.I.
PhD in Economics, Ass.Professor Department of management, marketing and foreign economic activities Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University), Russia
ORGANIZATION OF RISK-MANAGEMENT IN EQUINOR ASA
DOI: 10.31618/ESSA.2782-1994.2021.2.71.88 Аннотация. Статья раскрывает современные подходы к управлению рисками предприятия на основе внедрения системы ERM (enterprise risk management), нацеленной на интеграцию всех видов рисков в стратегии компании и переход от защиты от негативных ситуаций к концепции риск-аппетита. Подчеркивается особое значение риск-менеджмента для нефтегазовых компаний в условиях глобальной нестабильности и высокой ценовой волатильности. Автор анализирует опыт норвежской нефтегазовой компании Equinor по разработке и внедрению системы ERM, изменения в организации управления рисками и методах их анализа и оценки.
Abstract. The article reveals modern approaches to enterprise risk management based on the introduction of ERM (enterprise risk management) system, aimed at the integration of all types of risks in the company's strategy and the transition from protection from negative situations to the concept of risk appetite. The special importance of risk management for oil and gas companies in the conditions of global instability and high price volatility is emphasized. The author analyzes the experience of the Norwegian oil and gas company Equinor in the development and implementation of ERM, changes in the organization of risk management and methods of analysis and evaluation.
Ключевые слова: система управления рисками на предприятии, основные риски предприятия, карта рисков, организация риск-менеджмента, нефтяная компания Equinor
Keywords: risk management system in the enterprise, main risks of the enterprise, risks matrix, organization of risk management, oil company Equinor ASA
Энергетика является одной из крупнейших отраслей промышленности в мире. Энергоносители имеют решающее значение для функционирования мировой экономики, а потребление энергии продолжает неуклонно расти. Согласно некоторым прогнозам[1,2], мировое потребление энергии вырастет примерно на 30-40% к 2035-2040 годам,
причем большая часть этого роста придется на развивающиеся рынки [3].
Несомненно, каждой компании в сфере энергетики необходимо разработать эффективный процесс для управления каждым из своих значительных рисков. Традиционно компании управляли рисками в рамках отдельных
