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106MACROECONIMIC FACTORS IN REALIZING EXPORT POTENTIAL FOR ANIMAL PRODUCTION
DOI: 10.24411/2588-0209-2018-10023
A.I. Tikhomirov A.A. Fomin
Abstract. The objective of the survey is to study the macroeconomic factors influencing the competitiveness of the animal products and the realization of the animal sector export potential benefits. The survey methodology was based on the domestic and foreign scientists' works in the progressive development of the livestock sector, the formation of the domestic agricultural market, and the increase in the export potential of agriculture. The empirical research was based on the official datasets and the analytical materials obtained from the international unions, the branch associations, and the state institutions. The expert assessment method, the statistical methods in economic evaluation, and the estimation and construction practices were used in the survey. The trends in the animal product exports within the state agricultural development program were determined in the survey. For 2012-2016, the beef export volumes rose nine times, while the pig meat and egg exports reached 18.7 and 15.7 thousand tonnes, respectively. The effects of the devaluation and inflation processes happened to the Russian economy on the economic efficiency and the competitiveness of the domestic animal production were calculated. For instance, the average annual growth rate in the milk production costs for 2011-2016 comprised 8.3% with the increase in the total milk production costs (48.4%). It affected the development and the investment attractiveness of the sector. The measures to improve the mechanisms of the state support and to provide a favorable environment for the Russian animal product exporters in the international market have been proposed. Allocating the subsidies on the livestock product sales in the foreign market can improve the competitiveness of the domestic producers and offer the opportunity to stabilize the price situation in the domestic
market. The other form of a support under the state authorities should be the effective approaches to making easier the administrative barrier to using the veterinary and sanitary control for the domestic goods in the biggest global markets.
Keywords: exports, animal products, global market, import countries, macroeconomic factors, devaluation, inflation, state support
INTRODUCTION
Increasing the animal production volumes within the import substitution program along with decreasing the population's real income has ensured the replacement of the foreign imports with the domestic products. In addition, it has contributed to occurring the market surplus, which was no longer in demand, because of the reduction in the solvent demand and the decline in the level of consumption of the animal source products, since their costs significantly exceed the costs of the protein and fat substitute products. The negative changes in the price situation, which have been observed since the beginning of 2018, are associated with the significant drop in price for animal products (milk, pig meat, and poultry meat) in the domestic market. They caused a decrease in the animal sector profitability. Therefore, some producers faced a dificult financial situation.
The mentioned changes in the market make the producers find out the new markets distinguished by the sustainable development, the high capacity, and the solvent demand to become the active participants of a global trade.
In addition, one of the key factors for increasing the exports is monitoring and analyzing the internal risks and the external threats for competitiveness of the domestic products in the international market along with improving the mechanisms of the state support for promoting the goods and starting up the new regional markets.
This problem is widely reflected in the reports made by the representatives of the business and science communities at the specialized science and production conferences. Thus, the theme of realization of the industrial export potential was the main idea of the reports made by the participants and the discussion forum during the Annual Conference of the National Union of Pig Breeders called "Pig Industry 2017: market is saturated, what's next?", which was held at the International Industrial Academy at the end of 2017. A rather significant importance to this problem was attached at the Congress of the SOYUZMOLOKO National Dairy Producers Union during the AgroFarm 2018 Annual Agro-Industrial Exhibition, held in February 2018.
The science- and practice-based analysis of the effects of the macroeconomic factors on the export competitiveness of the domestic products has been reported.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
The domestic and foreign scientists' works in the progressive animal farming development, the formation of the domestic agricultural market, and the increase in the export potential of agriculture served as the methodological basis of the survey.
The empirical research was based on the official datasets obtained from the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. In addition, the official reports and the analytical materials of the international unions, the branch associations, and the foreign state institutions were used in the survey.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIAN
The review of the current livestock product export situation finds a significant growth in the product supply capacity. It has been achieved due to increasing the domestic production of goods, their quality, and the competitiveness in the global agro-industrial market due to the national currency devaluation (Table 1).
Table 1. Exports of main traded animal products and by-products from domestic producers
Item Year
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Thousa nd tonne Milli on USD Thousa nd tonnes Milli on USD Thousa nd tonnes Milli on USD Thousa nd tonnes Milli on USD Thousa nd tonnes Milli on USD
Frozen beef 0.2 1.2 1.1 6.9 1.4 8.1 2.2 9.5 1.8 7.6
Fresh, cold, or frozen pork 0.06 0.3 0.3 1.2 0.4 1.7 4.4 9.1 18.7 41.1
Fresh, cold, or frozen mutton, lamb, and goat meat 0.08 0.03 0.02 0.3 0.04 0.5 0.02 0.2 0.1 0.7
Fresh, cold, or 25.0 29.0 53.8 62.7 61.6 65.0 73.5 78.0 114.9 117.5
frozen poultry meat and byproducts
Milk
and
non-
condens
ed and
non-
sweeten
ed
cream
15.5
16.7
21.8
24.6
20.2
23.8
43.0
25.4
48.0
25.7
Evapora ted or sweeten ed milk and
condens ed or sweeten ed
cream
28.0
46.1
29.6
62.2
31.5
63.9
25.1
32.4
26.5
32.4
Fresh,
preserve
d, or
boild
poultry
shelled
eggs
0.1
0.4
17.8
24.8
13.3
19.1
13.7
16.2
15.8
17.1
*Source: based on the official statistics supplied by the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation [1]
However, it should be noted that the major importing countries of the animal-source products are the neighboring countries with a rather low standard of living and solvent demand.
However, the mentioned high growth rates are provided by substitution of the domestic market demands and the real shortage of the animal source products in total exports over the recent years. In 2012, the domestic producers exported only 200 tons of beef, 60 tons of pig meat, 80 tons of lamb, and 100 tons of eggs to their foreign partners. In addition, the Russian producers happened to increase the beef export volume nine times for 2012-2016; they increased the pig meat and egg export supplies up to 18.7 and 15.7 thousand tons, respectively. The
volumes of sales in global market for the dairy products and poultry meat were at the elevated level, while they remained rather insufficient.
Thereafter, increasing the exports of the value added ultra-processed products should require entering the more advanced and competitive markets characterized by the high demands on the product quality and the strict contrctual obligations [8].
The current situation and the domestic market closure for the food imports, caused by the falling capacity utilization after introducing the retaliatory economic sanctions imposed on a range of the Western countries, made the most technologically developed producers shift to manufacturing the high-quality export-oriented goods.
A severe competition in the international agricaltural market and unfavorable crisis phenomena in the Russian economy followed by the sharp national currency fluctuations and the higher devaluation processes require monitoring and analyzing the facts influencing the competitiveness of the livestock products.
This problem facing the producers occurred after the national currency devaluation at the end of 2014 and the approximately twofold increased prices of the imported equipment and the foreign current means, which usually do not have any Russian analogs.
The analysis of the economic efficiency of the livestock products was performed to assess the macroeconomic factors for the sector export potential development. It was ascertained that the sales of the livestock products excluding milk and pork are considered unprofitable for the most agricultural organizations (Table 2). Thus, the unprofitable degrees of the beef sales, the sales of sheep and goat meat, and the sheep wool sales comprised 24.1%, 1.8%, and 42.6, respectively, according to the data from the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation. It causes stagnation in the domestic beef cattle and sheep farming, followed by the increase in the proportion of the imported products in the domestic market [5].
Table 2. Economic efficiency of manufacturing and selling the animal products*
Item Year 2016 to 2011, %
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Production costs of 1 centner of a product, rubles
Bovine milk 1208 1238 1411 1540 1685 1793 148.4
Beef 10946 11571 12865 13652 14891 14178 129.5
Pork 6067 6020 6130 5966 6787 7240 119.3
Mutton. lamb, and goat meat 6018 6715 7192 7571 8247 8782 145.9
Sheep wool 11075 11008 11533 9600 10690 11615 104.9
Mnufacturing and selling costs of 1 centner oi ' a product, rub es **
Bovine milk 82 54 78 91 95 99 120.7
Beef -1878 -1631 -2275 -2094 -1832 -591 31.5
Pork 307 933 848 1162 1209 645 210.1
Mutton. lamb, and goat meat -413 -526 -539 -209 -346 -61 14.8
Sheep wool -543 270 -300 711 374 -1094 201.5
Costs of 1 centner of a sold product, rubles
Bovine milk 1290 1292 1489 1631 1780 1892 146.7
Beef 9068 9940 10590 11558 13059 13587 149.8
Pork 6374 6953 6978 7128 7996 7885 123.7
Mutton. lamb, and goat meat 5605 6189 6662 7362 7901 8721 155.6
Sheep wool 11618 11278 11233 10311 11064 10521 90.6
Selling price of 1 centner o ' a product, rub es
Bovine milk 1486 1450 1697 2067 2181 2282 153.6
Beef 6859 7527 6917 7534 9630 10308 150.3
Pork 7829 8660 7514 10183 10773 9712 124.1
Mutton. lamb, and goat meat 5319 6401 6501 6846 7351 8564 161.0
Sheep wool 5150 4978 5209 4520 5800 7131 138.2
Profit (loss) by selling 1 centner of a product, roubles
Bovine milk 196 158 208 536 411 390 199.0
Beef -2209 -2413 -9893 -4024 -3429 -3279 148.4
Pork 1455 1707 538 3055 2777 1827 125.6
Mutton. lamb, and goat meat -286 212 -161 -516 -550 -157 54.9
Sheep wool -6468 -6300 -6024 -5791 -5264 -3390 52.4
Profitability (unprol 'itability) of selling 1 centner of a product, %
Bovine milk 15.2 12.2 14.0 35.0 23.1 20.6 5,4 percentag e points
Beef -24.4 -24.3 -93.4 -34.8 -26.3 -24.1 3,0 percentag e points
Pork 22.8 24.6 7.7 42.9 27.8 23.2 0,4 percentag e points
Mutton, lamb, and goat meat -5.1 3.4 -2.4 -7.0 -7.0 -1.8 3.3 percentag e points
Sheep wool -55.7 -55.9 -53.6 -56.2 -49.4 -42.6 13.1 percentag e points
* Source: based on the official statistics supplied by the Ministry of Agriculture of the
Russian Federation [4]
**The negative value for an item indicates the product primary processing and selling
unprofitability
One of the key factors for a sustainable development of the domestic animal husbandry under the current conditions of farming is setting a price strategy in the domestic agricultural market and achieving a steady level of livestock production profitability and the product sales (Table 3).
Table 3. Formation of price conjuncture and money supply from the sale of some product
of animal origin on the domestic agricultural market
Year Average of
Item 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Í012- 2016
Foddstuff price indices and consumer inflation level
Agricultural price index, %
110.8 102.7 114.1 108.5 101.8 107.6
Price index for food and non-alcoholic
beverages, % 106.7 106.0 116.4 114.8 104.2 109.6
Consumer price index for goods and
services (Consumer price inflation), % 106.6 106.5 111.4 112.9 105.4 108.6
Population's real disposable income index,
% 104.6 104.0 99.3 96.8 94.1 99.8
Animal product sale price indices, %
Bovine milk 97.6 117.0 109.5 109.1 106.3 107.9
Beef 109,7 91,9 108,9 127,8 107,0 109.1
Pork 110.6 86.8 135.5 105.8 90.2 105.8
Mutton, lamb, and goat meat 120.3 101.6 105.3 107.4 116.5 110.2
Sheep wool 96.7 104.6 86.8 123.9 127.3 107.9
Proceeds from the agricultural product sale, milliard roubles
Proceeds from the agricultural product
sale 1384.0 1403.8 1798.1 2232.2 2288.7 9106.8**
Including plant products 555.8 527.2 665.8 905.4 961.3 3615.5**
Including livestock products 828.2 876.6 1132.3 1326.9 1327.4 5491.3**
Proceeds from the animal product sale, milliard rubles
Bovine milk 186.7 206.1 261.4 284.8 304.8 1243.8**
Beef 81.8 75.9 81.6 102.0 101.5 442.8**
Pork 185.8 206.3 317.0 357.2 314.3 1380.6**
Mutton, lamb, and goat meat 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.3 16.1**
Sheep wool 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1 9**
Index of the proceeds from t ie agricultural product sale, %
Index of the proceeds from the
agricultural product 120.5 101.4 128.1 124.1 102.5 114.3
Including plant products 127.8 94.9 126.3 136.0 106.2 118.2
Including livestock products 116.0 105.8 129.2 117.2 100.1 113.7
Index of the proceeds from the animal product sale, %
Bovine milk 101.4 110.4 126.8 109.0 107.0 110.9
Beef 111.2 92.8 107.4 125.0 99.5 107.2
Pork 136.3 111.1 153.7 112.7 88.0 120.4
Mutton, lamb, and goat meat 119.7 101.1 111.7 104.3 95.2 106.4
Sheep wool 87.0 94.6 108.8 128.6 148.2 113.4
* Source: based on the official statistics supplied by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation [4] and the Russian Federal State Statistics Service [3] **Total gross proceeds from the sale of the product fro 2012-2016
In addition, the domestic animal farming has a high production potential and the
enormous capabilities for a sustainable development of the sector and the competitive production capacity in the domestic and foreign top-quality product markets [6].
The performed analysis of the current state of the market conditions and the monetary domestic market capacity has proved the steady dynamics of prices for the livestock products, which do not exceed the growth rates for the agricultural products, being comparable with the level of the consumer inflation.
However, the sharp fluctuations of prices for certain products were recorded, despite the steady level of the price situation in the domestic market. Introduction of the retailiatory economic measures, a sharp rise in the foreign product prices due to the national currency devlauation, and a reduce in the domestic production output resulted in the significant increase in the beef prices, comprising 27.8% in 2015 and exceeding the average annual level of the consumer inflation by 14.9% [7].
A 35.5-% significant increase in the producer sale prices for pork in 2014 was caused by a reduce in the domestic market capacity after the ban on the pig-meat product imports from the countries of North America and a range of countries from Western Europe. The Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance of the Russian Federation introduced this prohibition.
Thereafter, an increase in the prices resulted in the increase in the proceeds from the animal product sales. The total proceeds from the animal product sales for 2012-2016 made up 5491.3 milliard rubles, comprising 60.3% of total proceeds from the agricultural product sales for the same period. In addition, 1243.8 and 1380.6 milliard rubles are the shares of milk and pork sales, respectively, or 22.7% and 25.0% of total proceeds from the animal product sales, respectively [6].
It should be noted that the production costs were determined under the conditions of the national currency devaluation for 2014-2015 and the financial asset supply limitation in the market. It was caused by a sharp increase in the key rate introduced by the Central Bank of Russia. It was followed by a rise in the price of credit resources, which resulted in the
intermittent increase in the production costs and expenses in the most vulnerable animal production subsectors with a typically long investment cycle, which were most dependent on the foreing imports (Table 4).
Thus, the average annual increase in the production costs and the milk sales over the recent five years comprised 8.3% and 8.1%, respectively. In addition, the total increase in the milk production costs for 2011-2016 comprised 48.4%. It exceeds the expense growth rates for production of the other kinds of livestock products, affecting the dairy cattle development and its investment attraction.
Table 4. Effects of inflation and devaluation processes on efficiency of animal production
and sales
Year Average of
Item 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012-2016
Price indieces of industrial goods, fuel and energy resources, , and trade-weig ited major
global currency exchange rates to one Russian ruble, %
Producer price index for Industrial
commodity 105.1 103.7 105.9 110.7 107.4 106.6
Producer price index for manufacturing
103.2 101.6 108.5 111.2 107.7 106.4
Price index of fuel and energy
resources 105.7 110.0 92.4 110.6 116.5 107.0
Index of trade weighted U.S. dollar to
Russian ruble exchange rate 105.8 102.4 120.6 158.7 110.0 119.5
Index of trade weighted Euro to
Russian ruble exchange rate 97.7 105.9 120.1 133.4 109.5 113.3
Index of production costs of 1 centner of a product, %
Bovine milk 102.5 114.0 109.1 109.4 106.4 108.3
Beef*** 105.7 111.2 106.1 109.1 95.2 105.5
Pork 99.2 101.8 97.3 113.8 106.7 103.8
Mutton, lamb, and goat meat** 111.6 107.1 105.3 108.9 106.5 107.9
Sheep wool** 99.4 104.8 83.2 111.4 108.7 101.5
Index of mnufacturing and selling costs of 1 centner of a product, %
Bovine milk 65.9 144.4 116.7 104.4 104.2 107.1
Beef *** 86.8 139.5 92.0 87.5 32.3 87.6
Pork 303.9 90.9 137.0 104.0 53.3 137.8
Mutton, lamb, and goat meat** 127.4 102.5 38.8 165.6 17.6 90.4
Sheep wool** 49.7 111.1 237.0 52.6 292.5 148.6
Index of costs of centner of a sold product, %
Bovine milk 100.2 115.2 109.5 109.1 106.3 108.1
Beef ** 109.6 106.5 109.1 113.0 104.0 108.4
Pork 109.1 100.4 102.1 112.2 98.6 104.5
Mutton, lamb, and goat meat** 110.4 107.6 110.5 107.3 110.4 109.2
Sheep wool** 97.1 99.6 91.8 107.3 95.1 98.2
*Source: based on the official statistics supplied by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation [4], the Russian Federal State Statistics Service [3], and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation и Центробанка России [2]
**The inicator proves the growth rates (slowing) of the losses, since this production is considered unprofitable
The general dynamics of the values for the economic efficiency of the livestock product
sales for 3012-2016 can indicate the increased profitability of the pig meat production and the milk production with the 74.7-% and 28.3-% average annual profitable growth of sales, respectively, and simultaneous losses in beaf and lamb-and-goat meat production, comprising 48.1% and 21.1%, respectively [5].
A significant growth of profitability of pig meat and milk sales was determined, which was caused by reducing the imports and the domestic market capacity. It was followed by a significant rise in the prices for the animal source products after introduction of embargo on certain products and an increase in the imported product costs because of national currency weakening [6].
However, the effect of this factor appeared short-term, since the increases in the foreign technological equipment costs along with the material and technical resources resulted in the significant increase in the production costs and the product sale expenses.
Therefore, the authors consider that the high-tech import dependence occurred over the recent years is a key factor making the domestic livestock sector impossible to achieve the sustainable vector development and to increase the production capacity in order to substitute the livestock-product imports in the domestic market [6].
Increasing the economic efficiency of the livestock sector and enhancing the export opportunities of the industry require developing the strategy for realizing its production and material-and-technical potential, which can meet the current market demands and contribute to the investment attraction of the industry.
Implementation of outcomes. Therefore, realizing the sectoral export potential is in the direct relation with the organizational, economic, natural, and climatic factors and the factors of production, which have the effects on the capacity of production and its competability in the global market. Thus, the advantageous natural and climatic environments and the profitable technological conditions for the milk production in the top countries of Oceania and Latin America for the grassland area and the favourable temperature regimes can provide the opportunities for farmers to develop the year-round grazing systems with the lowest operating
costs and managing expenses. It contributes to increasing the production output to occupy the key position in the global dairy trade.
In addition, milk production cost benchmarking has proved that the domestic producers can be competitive even under the existing economic conditions, when compared to the farmers from the countries of Western Europe and North America.
In order to determine the milk production costs, the authres have applied the official datasets obtained from the state agriculturual authorities and the foreign regional associations with the use of the information of the Central Bank of Russia on the national currency weighted exchange rate (Table 5).
Table 5. Comparative analysis of milk production costs in Western Europe and North America countries, rubbles/kg
Country Year
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Russia 12.4 14.1 15.4 16.9 18.1
USA 7.9 9.8 10.9 16.5 17.4
Canada 24.2 23.9 27.5 37.2 38.7
Netherlands 17.1 18.9 25.6 28.6 31.9
Germany 17.6 19.4 22.6 28.5 30.4
France 16.3 18.5 2.1 28.7 30.4
Denmark 16.7 18.1 21.7 27.0 29.7
Belgium 16.1 13.2 21.5 31.0 30.3
*Source: based on the official statistics supplied by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation [4], the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) [11], the Canadian Dairy Commission (CDC) [9], the European Milk Board (EMB) [12], and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation [2]
The data from Table 5 prove the competiteveness of the domestic dairy cattle farming and the wide opportunities for increasing the export capacity of milk and dairy products. In addition, the previous devaluation has had a significant effect on the development of the sectoral export potential, improving the milk production costs in ruble terms.
CONCLUSIONS
Development of the livestock product exports requires improving the state package support focused on stimulating the foreign economic activity of the domestic producers and the Russian product promotion in the new markets, ensuring their protection in the world structures regulating the global trade.
One of the key directions of the government support for the livestock product exports should be allocating the subsidies on the animal-source product sales in the foregn market. It can increase the competitivenes of the domestic producers and provide the opportunity to stabilyze
the price situation in the domestic market, ensuring the steady level of profitability within the entire production and supply chain.
The other form of a support under the state authorities should be the effective approaches to making easier the administrative barrier to using the veterinary and sanitary control for the domestic goods in the biggest global markets. This direction became of great importance for both the enhancement of the opportunities of the foreign activity in the international agricultural product market and the protection of the domestic market products against the specific diseases induced by the pathogens, causing the economic losses [10].
Therefore, the dispropotions in the development of livestock farming, which are caused by both the economic and biological specificities in breeding and the level of development of market infrustructures along with the macroeonomic processes in the economy, can usually predetermine the competitiveness of the productes and the efficiency of realizing the export potential of the sector.
AKNOWLEGMENTS
The article is made up according to the themes within the state task of the Federal Agency for Scientific Organizations of Russia (FASO Russia), AAAA-A18-118020590174-2.
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AUTHOR INFORMATION:
Tikhomirov, Aleksei Ivanovich, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Senior Staff Scientist, Laboratory for Economics and Policy in Animal Husbandry
Fomin, Aleksandr Anatolievich, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Professor, Moscow State University of Land Management, President, Foundation for Stolypin National Prize
ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3881-8348, [email protected]
