CC BY
17
Средние затраты на 1 капитальный ремонт скважины после проведения мероприятия, руб. Таблица 1
Показатель Единица измерения Стоимость 1 бриг-ч, руб./час Количество часов, час Затраты, руб.
Бригада ПиОС руб./час 19 355,00 345 6 677 475,00
Бригада КРС руб./час 34 962,00 622 21 746 364,00
Итого затрат 28 423 839,00
Зато, данное мероприятие позволяет снизить Таким образом, очевидно, что такая организа-
продолжительность работы бригады КРС с 6 65 часов ция труда повысит производительность труда на до 622, как следствие, каждая бригада КРС сможет предприятии, провести ещё больше ремонтов.
ЛИТЕРАТУРА
1. Байгулов Р.М., Беляева С.В., Голубева Г.Ф., Домнина С.В., Елисеева Е.В., Ермолаев К.П., Ерохин В.В., Заступов А.В., Захаров В.В., Захарова Н.И., Коробкова Ю.Ю., Королев О.П., Лапочкина С.В., Лизунова Н.М., Лукьянова И.Е., Марущак И.В., Матвеева Л.Г., Мидова Р.М., Милютенко Т.Р., Михайлов О.В. и др.Результаты социаьно-экономических и междисциплинарных научных исследований XXI века.- Самара, 2016.
2. Майстер В.А., Ширинкина Е.В. Оптимизация затрат на энергопотребление методом почасового планирования на нефтегазодобывающем предприятии/ надежность и качество-2 013:тр. Междунар.симп.-Пенза :Изд-во ПГУ,2013. -2 т.-418с.
3. Майстер В.А., Ширинкина Е.В. Роль интеллектуального капитала в технологическом оснащении производства // Надежность и качество сложных систем. 2016. № 1 (13) . С. 107-113.
4. Ширинкина Е.В. Повышение производительности труда на предприятиях нефтяной и газовой отрасли // Труды международного симпозиума Надежность и качество. 2012. Т. 2. С. 330-331.
5. Ширинкина Е.В., Майстер В.А. Совершенствование логистического процесса в системе управления запасами на предприятии электрокабельной продукции / надежность и качество-2 013:тр. Междунар.симп.-Пенза :Изд-во ПГУ,2013. -1 т.-382с.
6. Ширинкина Е.В., Гантимуров А.В. Совершенствование планирования затрат на предприятиях нефте-гаовой отрасли // Труды международного симпозиума Надежность и качество. 2014. Т. 2. С. 325-330.
UDK: 502.131.1(497.11) 316.42(497.11)
Miletic1 Lj., Nicic2 M., Dobrosavljev3 S., Jankovic4 J.
1Faculty of project and innovation management, Belgrade, Serbia
2Higher School of Professional Studies, Novi Sad, Serbia
3Industrial engineering Technical faculty " Mihajlo Pupin", Zrenjanin, Serbia
4Faculty of Sciences University of Novi Sad, Serbia
LCA METHOD IN FUNCTION OF IMPLEMENTATION THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IN SERBIA
The paper describes the specifics ofthe present, globally usable concept ofsustainable development, which refers to the sustainable production, including environmental, material and energy efficiency in each stage of the production of goods and services, from the design, manufacture, through usage, recycling and disposal ofproducts. This model is known as a model for the assessment ofproduct life cycle-LCA and enables that producers, distributors and consumers are aware of the environmental, socio-cultural and other consequences that the product may have over its lifetime and be responsible for them. This work provides the basic elements for implementing the method as an international LCA tools, dealing with environmental impact assessment of the product during its life cycle, and provides an overview of implementation of the project for the introduction of cleaner production, which is one of the priorities of the National Strategy for Sustainable Development of Serbia
Keywords:
Sustainable development, sustainable development strategies, product life cycle, LCA method
1. Introductory considerations all resulted in a sharp rise in pressure on com-
Sustainability and sustainable development in panies to adapt in order to survive in this en-
the broadest sense represent a radical change of vironment and, at the same time, meet the needs
attitude towards the living environment and the of demanding customers faster and more substan-
transformation of the entire ruling system of tially. Global market indicates a growing need
values. Finding sustainable and righteous ways for ecologically suitable products, materials
of production, consumption and living is the key and manufacturing processes, while at the same
challenge of this millennium [1]. Cautionary time an intense evolution of many existing prod-
fact is that the UN itself put its focus on this ucts, materials and processes is happening, in
extremely important area only three decades ago. terms of sustainability.
[2] Sustainability has become imperative and 2. The concept of sustainable development
sustainable development an important prob- Nowadays, establishing a balance of life and
lem/challenge for institutions, stakeholders, work globally is an especially significant prob-
policy makers, planners and evaluators of pro- lem to the population [5]. Thus, sustainability
jects, programs and strategic plans in developed gains special importance, primarily viewed
and developing countries. [3]. Under these con- through the ability to maintain the balance of
ditions it is necessary to direct the short-term certain processes and/or achieve the desired
societal benefit towards the long-term relation- state in a system. Depending on the context in
ship of society to nature. This is not about which the problem of sustainability is observed,
stopping the scientific and technical achieve- there are number of definitions, in foreign as
ments, but "a man must be controlled in accord- well as local literature [6]. According to one
ance with the availability and capacity of na- of these definitions, sustainability is regarded
ture, and thus redefine the time perspective of to as "a continuous process that can be main-
progress" [4]. tained indefinitely and without progressive re-
The synergetic effect of factors that char- duction of the value (quality), inside or out-
acterize the global market, such as: growing side the system in which the process is carried
competition, rapid changes that pose the imper- out" [7]. In the so-called. Bruntland report of
ative of extreme flexibility of industrial sys- the World Commission on Environment and Devel-
tems, the need for rapid adoption of important opment of the United Nations" [2], led by Gro
business decisions, shorter product life cycle, Harlem Brundtland (former Prime Minister of Nor-
the depletion of natural resources, the neces- way) it is said that sustainable development
sity to protect the environment, the processes should enable the meeting of needs of present
of globalization and internationalization, have generations, but at the same time taking care
not to endanger the possibilities of meeting the needs of future generations.
In order to improve the functionality of this definition, as a result of research within the "Monitoring of Sustainable Development Project" (MONET) the conceptual guideline for sustainable development emerged, stating that sustainable development should provide the conditions in accordance with the human rights act by creating and maintaining a broad specter of opportunities for freely defining life plans [8]. At the same time, a fair attitude of the present generations towards the future ones, in terms of three key dimensions of sustainable development using three key resources of life on planet Earth: environmental, economic and social resources, is very important. Its practical application includes comprehensive protection of biodiversity (ecosystems, their species and the genetic diversity), because in the opinion of the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) it represents the basis of life.
Over the last three decades the perceptions of the importance of these three dimensions of sustainable development have been developed and changed, derived on the basis of the use of resources that have been identified as key to sustainable development. For the purpose of establishing measurable indicators of specific dimensions of sustainability (sustainability measurements), a little more than two decades ago the "Triple-bottom-line" concept appeared, which observes sustainability based on 3P dimensions: People, Planet and Profit. Based on this concept of the sustainable development, which is often called the 'Three pillar model', 'Three circle model', 'balance concept', as well as "TBL" and "3BL" [9], in the focus of observing sustaina-bility the entire society, as well as the economic and environmental dimension are involved, because they are essential for synchronized and balanced functioning of achieved sustainability. It is obvious that the understanding of the concept of sustainable development is changed and corrected in accordance with more and more turbulent changes taking place in the world. Within this context, [10] it highlights the fact that as a society we move from the era of abundance to an era of forced frugality, and in this regard the definition of sustainability should be reviewed, which will, in conditions of limited resources, match the contemporary development of humanity. Regardless of which definition of sus-tainability is used, key message to decision-making managers and professionals who are engaged in industrial production is that in order to achieve sustainability it is necessary to work on reducing the negative consequences on the environment. The above said means that the emphasis in the design of technological systems should be to minimize the negative impact on the ecosystem [11].
3. Sustainable Development Strategy of Serbia
The concept of sustainable development of the Republic of Serbia is primarily related to the concept of sustainable production, which will, by increasing the added value, by using technology that results in fewer negative environmental effects and by reducing the consumption of materials and energy, create the conditions for a better life and opportunities for future generations. [12] The fact is that in the beginning of a new era, the Republic of Serbia after the breakup of the "big Yugoslavia" and the devastating consequences of the bombing of the NATO alliance, which was carried out without the approval of the United Nations, got to an unenviable place, where the majority of its economic infrastructure was destroyed, and the conditions for the implementation of sustainable production minimal. In addition, the painful process of transition, bad privatization and lack of funds for investment in the cleaner technologies and
increased environmental protection have resulted in the side product of the current production being excessive and hazardous waste (wild dumps and large suburban dumps). As for energy efficiency, although as a whole country we have a deficit of energy, it is still low, and the energy in the Republic of Serbia due to economic and technological factors, is being largely dissipated.
National Sustainable Development Strategy of the Republic of Serbia has several priorities, including the increasingly important "Protection and promotion of environment and rational use of natural resources" and this priority is primarily related to the creation of systemic assumptions for the preservation and improvement of the system of environmental protection, pollution reduction and pressure on the environment, the use of natural resources, so as to ensure their availability for future generations. This includes [12]:
1. Setting-up the system of protection and sustainable utilization of resources (air, water, soil, minerals, forests, fish, wild plants and animals);
2. Strengthening of interaction and achieving significant effects between environmental protection and economic growth;
3. The inclusion of environmental policy in development policies of other sectors;
4. Investing in reducing environmental pollution and the development of cleaner technologies; reduce the high energy intensity of the economy of the Republic of Serbia and more efficient use of fossil fuels;
5. Promoting the use of renewable energy sources;
6. Planning of sustainable production and consumption and the reduction of waste per unit of production, and
7. The protection and conservation of biodiversity. .
The strategic goal of the introduction of cleaner production policy is closely related to: efficient use of the key production factors, reducing the energy intensity and the intensity of the use of material resources, the development and implementation of systems for managing industrial and especially hazardous waste. The fact that the Republic of Serbia not with cheap labor, not with an abundance of natural resources, can no longer achieve a competitive advantage in the international market, and in order to create better conditions for strategic sustainable development, the country's leaders, in addition to working on harmonization of legislation and standards with the regulations and standards of the European Union, turn to find the sources of the application of new drivers of economic growth and social progress (application of efficient and cleaner technologies and new eco-friendly materials), which minimizes the pressure on natural resources and environmental protection.
In order to implement cleaner production projects and help industrial production to manage their processes with the increased level of sus-tainability, which includes accelerated accreditation of necessary laboratories [13], the strategy of the Republic of Serbia encompasses the establishment of a strong "Center for Cleaner Production". For the implementation of the national strategy for sustainable development of the Republic of Serbia, in the framework of cleaner production methods, the use of PLM (Product Lifecycle Management) is suggested, which means that knowledgeable designers, engineers, technologists, economists, lawyers and cultural historians, should in their scope of work, find adequate PML tools to manage their processes. The support for cleaner production applies to all economic sectors and activities,
and is designed to integrate objectives of sectors and priority actions in the process of achieving sustainability.
In order to apply the proposed strategy, i.e. understanding the importance and establishing a system for the measurement of significant variables in the life cycle of the product and to incorporate the aspect of the influence on the environment into the process of realization of the product (the entire product life cycle) the application of the internationally recognized Tool Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is recommended. One of the basic characteristics and specifics of LCA approach is that it allows the designer, manufacturer, and future customers to get the actual indicators of its ecological, socio-cultural and other consequences during the key generating phase of the quality of the product. The national strategy based on the LCA approach allows designers, manufacturers and experts in quality and marketing to, by coordinating their work, effectively manage their processes on the basis of respect for the key principles of sustainable development and thus, still in the design phase, develop new environmentally friendly product.
4. LCA approach to evaluating the sustaina-bility of products
LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) of the product is a method for analysis and quantitative assessment of the possible impact of products on the environment throughout the entire product life
cycle - from the extraction of raw materials, through production, use and treatment at the end of life of products, recycling and final disposal [14], [15] . LCA method was named one of the cornerstones of the European policy of sustainable development, by the Institute for Environment and Sustainability (JRC-IES26) of the European Commission. [16]. Abrahamsson (2000)
[17] found that the overarching LCA could not be observed as a method whose implementation provides rigorous quantitative results, but as a framework upon which more efficient and useful methods for assessing the suitability of a product or a process from the environmental point of view can be developed. The International Organization for Standardization ISO / TR 14062: 2002
[18] defined the life cycle of the product as a "consecutive and connected phases of the overall system of a product, from the collection of raw material to its removal from the market" [19], which was the basis for standardization of the application of LCA methods (ISO 14040: 2006) in four phases (Figure 1): 1. Defining the goal and area of research; 2. Life cycle inventory analysis (LCI); 3. Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA); 4. Interpretation of results [19]. Figure 1 shows that the LCA process sustainability estimate approach consists of an iterative two-way communication, with the auto-corrective character, which ensures consistency in the realization of the current phase in relation to one of the preceding and possible corrections.
Figure 1 - Main phases of LCA approach
Although the LCA approach was originally created to support decision-making in the field of environmental engineering, it is applicable at various levels and in different aspects of the business, thus in industrial systems as well to create a strategic business framework in terms of developing sustainability strategies of existing or planned (new) products and services. Sustainability strategies of certain products are based on facts derived from the estimated sustainability score in certain phases of the life cycle of a product [20].
Defining the objective and area of the research is the first stage of application of the life cycle analysis methods and refers to the determination of the objective, object and area of application, which determines the width, depth and detail of analysis, the methods and procedures for achieving objectives of the analysis [21]. Life cycle inventory (LCI) is a second stage which comprises of the collection of data on the relevant inputs (required energy, raw materials, etc.) and the outputs (products, waste
materials that go into the air, water and soil) [22]. Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is the
third stage in which it is assessed what the impact of the tested products on the environment is. It represents the logical consequence of the previous stage which only determines the required inventory (data on type and quantity of expended resources and emission of pollutants in the individual phases of the product lifecycle), but does not give information about the possible consequences of the consumption of exploited resources and the expected emissions of harmful substances in the environment. Impact assessment during the life cycle of the product provides additional information that should help in interpreting the results of LCI system of products, to better understand its impact on the environment, i.e. its importance from the aspect of environment protection. Evaluation of the impact in the life cycle of the product is carried out in several consecutive steps, as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2 - The mandatory elements of the Impact assessment in the product life cycle
Typical characterization of impact indicators is done as follows: Indicator of impact = Inventory Data X Characterization factor [23]. Interpretation of the result indicator constitutes a fourth stage for the identification, verification, classification and evaluation of the information obtained about the effects of the individual elements based on the inventory which is essential in the life cycle of a given product, and/or the evaluation of their impact in terms of sustainable development. Interpretation stage should yield results that are consistent with the defined objective and object and that bring conclusions, explain limitations, and provide recommendations.
This is actually a process of balancing the importance of the effects of certain effects that a product or service makes on the environment. Figure 3 shows the LCA framework for the application of sustainability assessing tools [24].
5. Projects application of LCA methods as part of a strategy for sustainable development of Serbia
Sustainable Development Strategy of the Republic of Serbia systematically implies: standardization of acceptable products and services from an environmental standpoint; economic interventions; stimulation measures, encouraging production; the adoption of suitable legislation; education for sustainable production and consumption on a broad front; wide media campaign for sustainable production and consumption; demonstration of healthy living and systems of sustainable consumption and others.
The introduction of the cleaner production as one of the priorities in the National Strategy of Sustainable Development of Serbia includes on one side a series of economic instruments necessary for promotion of the cleaner production, and on the other hand, by applying an internationally recognized instrument, the LCA method, involves compliance with certain standards that regulate the area. LCA area constitutes of the appropriate ISO standards that are being developed and improved since 1997 (Table 1), and this is an ongoing process [25].
Figure 3 - The framework for LCA tools for evaluating the sustainability of products
Structure of LCA fields by ISO standards in Republic of Serbia_Table 1
International designation Designation in Republic of Serbia Name Status
ISO 14040:1997 SRPS ISO 1440:2000 Environmental management-Assessment of life cycle- The principles and framework Withdrawn
ISO 14041:1998 SRPS ISO 14041:2002 Environmental management-Assessment of life-cycle Defining the objectives and object, and inventory analysis Withdrawn
ISO 14042:2000 SRPS ISO 14042:2005 Environmental management-Assessment of lifeLife cycle impact assessment Withdrawn
ISO 14042:2000 SRPS ISO 14043:2005 Environmental management-Assessment of life-cycle-Interpretation of the life cycle Withdrawn
ISO 14047:2003 / Environmental management-Life cycle impact assessment-Examples of application of ISO 14042 Active
ISO 14048:2002 SRPS ISO 14048:2006 Environmental management-Assessment of life -cycle Documentation data format Active
ISO 14049:2005 SRPS ISO 14049:2005 Environmental management-Assessment of life cycle- Examples of changes in ISO 14041 to define the objective and object, and inventory analysis of life cycle Active
ISO 14040:2006 SRPS ISO 14040:2008 Environmental management-Assessment of life cycle - The principles and framework Active
ISO 14044:2006 SRPS ISO 14044:2009 Environmental management-Assessment of life cycle Requirements and guidelines for implementation Active
Standardization in the area of the LCA, in to include in their business and product strat-
accordance with internationally recognized in- egy the principle of life-cycle management of
struments, allows the introduction of cleaner its products and their related processes,
production, which combines all of the sector ob- Achieving sustainable development requires the
jectives and priority actions and is an im- development and implementation of methods that
portant activity for all sectors of the economy will help quantify and compare the impacts of
and industry, thereby greatly contributing to products and services on the environment. Spe-
the realization of sustainable development cial tools which deal with the life cycle of the
strategies of Republic of Serbia. product are important for analyzing the differ-
Conclusion ent aspects of impact on the environment, pri-
For the last three decades of the twentieth marily LCA method that provides an assessment of
century, the world has, in different ways, been suitability of a product or process, from the
trying to reach a sustainable system of produc- ecological aspect. This paper presents a prac-
tion as the pillar for the sustainable develop- tical application of LCA tools in project of
ment. The classic concept of sustainable devel- implementation of cleaner production, which is
opment is based on the production of the greatest the recommended by the national strategy for
added value with the least materials and energy sustainable development of the Republic of Ser-
consumed, and causing the least amount of nega- bia. The reason for this is the fact that through
tive environmental consequences, in order to al- objectives for the introduction of cleaner tech-
low a better chance for future generations. In nologies the competitiveness of the economy is
that sense, for the industrial systems that aim improved, the development of "knowledge economy"
for environmental suitability, it is essential is encouraged, and thereby total well-being of
the nation is achieved.
REFERENCES
1. Peattie, K. & Charter, M. (2003). Green marketing, The Marketing Book, 5 th edition, ed. Michael Baker. Butterworth-Heinemann. 726 - 756
2. WCED, (1987). Our Common Future. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press
3. Bogliotti, C., & Spangenberg, J. H. (2006). A conceptual model to frame goals of sustainable development, Int. J. Sustain. Dev. Plann, 1(4), 381-398
4. Cifric I. (2010). Ekologija vremena, Vrijeme kao integrativni i dezintegrativni cimbenik, Socijalna ekologija, Zagreb, 19(1), 5 - 32
5. Evans, S., Gregory, M., Ryan, C., Bergendahl, M. N., & Tan, A. (2009). Towards a sustainable industrial system: With recommendations for education, research, industry and policy. University of Cambridge, Institute for Manufacturing
6. Robinson, J. (2004). Squaring the circle? Some thoughts on the idea of sustainable development. Ecological economics, 48(4), 369-384
7 Holdren, J. P., Daily, G. C., & Ehrlich, P. R. (1995). The meaning of sustainability: bioge-ophysical aspects. Defining and measuring sustainability: the biological foundations (eds Mu-nasinghe M., Shearer W.), 3-17
8. MONET project (2001). From the definition to the postulates of sustainable development. Bundesamt für Statistik (BFS), Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft (BUWAL) and Bundesamt für Raumentwicklung ARE. Neuchátel
9. Savitz, A. W., & Weber, K. (2006). The triple bottom line, San Francisco, Jossey-Boss.
10. Spangenberg J. H., (2014), Institutional for strong sustainable consumption: sustainable consumption and the degrowth economy, Sustainability: Science, Practice, & Polisy, 10 (1), 62-77
11. Miletic, Lj., Nicic, M., Jankovic, J., Dobrosavljev, S., (2017). Upravljanje procesom eko marketinga u funkciji odrzivog razvoja (Managing the process of eco-marketing in terms of sustainable development), Proceedings of the scientific conference "The goals of sustainable development in the third millennium", Beograd 2017.god,
12. Nacionalan strategija odrzivog razvoja Srbije (National strategies for sustainable development of Serbia), (2017). http://indicator.sepa.gov.rs/slike/pdf/o-indikatorima/nacionalna-strategija-odrzivog-razvoja-srbije
13. SRPS ISO/IEC 17025: 2013 - Смернице за примену SRPS ISO/IEC 17025 при оцеьиваьу и акредита-цщи лабораторща коjе обавьаjу сензорска испитиваьа АТС-УП29 (Guidelines for the use of ISO / IEC 17025 in the evaluation and the accreditation of laboratories which perform sensory tests ATS-UP29)
14. ISO 14040:2006 - Environmental management-Assessment of life cycle -The principles and framework
15. Trotta, M. G. (2010). Product Lifecycle Management: Sustainability and knowledge management as keys in a complex system of product development, Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, 3(2), 309-322.
16. Wolf, M. A., Pant, R., Chomkhamsri, K., Sala, S., S Pennington, D. (2010). The International Reference Life Cycle Data System (ILCD) handbook, General guide for life cycle assessment— detailed guidance - first edition. European Commission Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability
17. Abrahamsson, K. (2000). Environmental conscious product development by using LCA and other comparable Tools, Product development Methods
18. ISO/TR 14062:2002 - Environmental management - Integrating environmental aspects into product design and development
19. Weinzettel, J. (2008). Posuzovani zivotniho cyklu (LCA) a analyza vystupu (IOA): vzajemne propojeni pri ziskavani nedostupnych dat, (Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Output Analysis (IOA): Relational to Reach Inaccessible Data -Dissertation), Ceske vysoke uceni technicke v Praze, Praha, Ceska Republika
20. Buxel, H., Esenduran, G., S Griffin, S. (2015) . Strategic sustainability: Creating business value with life cycle analysis, Business Horizons, 58(1), 109-122
21. Kiss, F., & Boskovic, G. (2012). Energetske potrebe zivotnog ciklusa biodizela proizvedenog od ulja uljane repice u Srbiji (Energy needs of the life cycle of biodiesel produced from rapeseed oil in Serbi), Journal on Processing and Energy in Agriculture, 16(1), 28-32
22. Haselbach, L., S Langfitt, Q. (2015). Wellcome to the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Learning Module Series. Data Collection Procedure, http:llslideplayer.com/slidel33 8l93 8l Pristupljeno 02.IV, 2017
23.Curran, M. A. (2006). LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT: PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICE, National Risk Management Research Laboratory, Cincinnati, Ohio.
24. Ness, B., Urbel-Piirsalu, E., Anderberg, S., SOlsson, L., (2007), Categorising tools for sustainability assessment, Ecological economics, 60 (3), 498-508
25. Hodolic, J., Budak, I., Hadzistevic, M., Vukelic, В., Majernik, M. i dr. (2013). Sistemi za upravljanje zastitom zivotne sredine (Systems for Environmental Management), Fakultet tehnickih nauka, Novi Sad
УДК 338.45:622.3
Михеев М.Ю. , Савочкин А.Е.
ФГБОУ ВО «Пензенский государственный технологический университет», Пенза, Россия
МОДЕРНИЗАЦИЯ АЛГОРИТМА ОБРАБОТКИ БОЛЬШИХ ДАННЫХ ДЛЯ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ КОРОТКИХ ВРЕМЕННЫХ РЯДОВ
Ключевые слова:
прогнозирование, короткий временной ряд, большие данные, BigData
В связи необходимостью надежной и безопасной эксплуатации значительного числа технических и технологических объектов ответственного назначения возникает задача контроля их технического состояния и прогнозирования его изменения. Техническое состояние наблюдаемого объекта характеризуется совокупностью изменяющихся в процессе его жизненного цикла свойств, от которых зависит способность самого объекта выполнять требуемые функции в заданных условиях применения. Предупреждение наступления литеральной ситуации на объекте осуществляется посредством анализа физических процессов, происходящих в нём.
Зачастую на объекте возникают ситуации, когда физический процесс, от которого зависит наступление литеральной ситуации, можно охарактеризовать только короткими временными рядами (ВР) . Это могут быть быстропротекающие процессы (такие как удар или краткосрочная вибрация) или ситуация, когда получение каждого наблюдения является либо очень дорогостоящей операцией, либо опасно для жизни и здоровья. При этом количество отсчетов в ВР зачастую не превышает 30 значений. Такие процессы могут стать основой для наступления литеральной ситуации.
Малый объем актуальных данных, отсутствие предварительной статистики, необходимость максимально быстрого получения результата определения возможности возникновения литеральной ситуации накладывают ряд ограничений на применение известных методов анализа мониторинговых данных.
В настоящее время благодаря развитию информационных технологий, основанных на достижениях вычислительной техники, появилась возможность реализовывать новые алгоритмы и комплексы из существующих алгоритмов на основе исследований физических процессов, характеризующихся короткими ВР, что позволяет обойти ряд ограничений на применение известных методов анализа, связанных
с малым объемом актуальных данных (высокая точность прогноза, как правило, достигается в случае, если ВР содержат не менее 50 уровней);
с отсутствием предварительной статистики и проблемами сбора, обработки и учета информации о наблюдаемом объекте или процессе;
с необходимостью максимально быстрого получения результата;
с невозможностью применения классических алгоритмов, моделей и методов из-за нестационарности коротких ВР.
Короткий ВР приводит к наличию малого числа дискредитированных значений ряда (наблюдений) и возникновению малой статистической выборки остатков. Это существенно сужает набор методов анализа физического процесса, для построения прогностической модели с требуемыми параметрами.
Результаты контроля предполагают накопление измерительной информации, объемы которой зачастую могут достигать значительных размеров. Комплексным системам контроля безопасной эксплуатации, которые позволяют вести анализ и прогнозирование состояния таких объектов, полноценно обрабатывать такие объёмы контрольно-измерительной информации не под силу, да и задачи перед такими системами ставятся другие.
Для составления прогноза состояния объекта при обработке больших объемов контрольно-измерительной информации в условиях постоянного её прироста помимо всего прочего, необходимо обеспечивать поиск актуального набора данных. В таких случаях применяется серия подходов, инструментов и методов под общим названием Е1дВаЬа.
Применение технологий Е1дВаЬа позволяет избежать прямого взаимодействия самой комплексной системы контроля безопасной эксплуатации с постоянно увеличивающимся объемом контрольно-измерительной информации об объекте. Вместо этого отдельная программа подгружается к хранилищу,
