CC BY
96
д.э.н., професор, Львовский государственный университет внутренних дел, ул. Городецкая, 26, г. Львов, 79000, Украина e-mail: [email protected] Дубина Мария Петровна,
к.э.н., доцент, Львовский национальный университет ветеринарной медицины и биотехнологий имени Степана Гжицкого, ул. Пекарская, 50, г. Львов, 79000, Украина e-mail: [email protected] Вивчарук Ольга Николаевна, к.э.н., и.о. доцента, Львовский институт экономики и туризма,
ул. Модеста Менцинского, 8, г. Львов, 79000, Украина
e-mail: [email protected] Петриняк Ульяна Ярославовна,
к.э.н., преподаватель, Львовский региональный институт государственного управления Национальной академии государственного управления при Президенте Украины,
ул. Сухомлинского, 16, пгт. Брюховичи., г. Львов, 79491, Украина e-mail: [email protected]
Data about the author Svetlana Vasylchak,
Doctor of Economics, Professor, Lviv state University of Internal Affairs, Street Gorodozka, 26, Lviv, 79000, Ukraine e-mail: [email protected] Maria Dubyna,
PhD in Economics, associate professor, Stephan Gzhytskyi Lviv national university of veterinary medicine and biotechnologies, Street Pekarska, 50, Lviv, 79000, Ukraine e-mail: [email protected] Olga Vivcharuk,
PhD in Economics, acting assistant professor, Lviv Institute of Economics and Tourism, Street Modesta Menzinskego, 8, Lviv, 79000, Ukraine e-mail: [email protected] Uliana Petrynyak,
PhD in Economics, teacher Lviv Regional Institute of Public Administration of the National Academy of Public Administration under the President of Ukraine
Street Sukhomlynsky, 16, smt. Bryukhovichi, Lviv, 79491, Ukraine e-mail: [email protected]
УДК: 327+339 001:10.5281/1впоёо. 1304206
Д1КАРБВ О.1, ШОСТАК Л.Б.
Китайська стратепя «одного пояса i одного шляху»
Предметом досл'щження е генеральний план 0Б0Й, який може запропонувати певн перспек-тиви в якост'1 платформи для бльш широкого сп'шроб'тництва м1ж БС / Китаем по бльш склад-них питаннях безпеки в БвразИ'. В1н являе собою можливсть для БС працювати в напрямку т'сно! сп1впрац1 на основ'1 бльш м'яких п1дход1в до питань безпеки або розвитку.
Мета ц1е! статт'1 - з'ясувати чи е: (1) глобальна геополтика / сучасна м'жнародна полтика Китаю в певнй м1р1 взаемод1ею / залежнстю традицйного контексту; (2) нам'ри китайськоI ел'ти не тльки розширювати китайську економку, купуючи ресурси / ринки для експорту Китаю, але й метою модер-н\зувати найбльш/ в св'т в\йськов\ сили; (3) реальними можливостями бльш агресивноI китайськоI зовншньополтично! повед^нки з заявами про бльш широк зони щентифкацн ППО, впровадженн в нафтов'1 буров'1 установки / штучн острови в оспорюваних територ'альних водах; (4) ефективними можливост'1 просувати своI власн дипломатичн'1 концепцИ' та ¡н'1ц1ативи, так як Азатський ¡нвести-цйний банк (А11В) / БР1КС-банк / тим самим бльш активно домагатися реформування м'жнародноI системи; (5) чи можуть порти, зал'зниц ОБОР бути використан'1 для транспортування вйськових сил Китаю по всй АзИ в майбутньому, щоб п'щштовхнути маятник свтовоI економки з Заходу на Схд.
Методолопя роботи - Для вищезгаданого ще дуже попереднього анал'зу використовувався широкий спектр ¡ноземних джерел, який п'щтримуе поступовий розвиток нового мислення / но-вий п1дхщ в стратеги зовн1шньо!' пол'пики КНР, що вказуе на велик змни в способах м'жнародноI взаемодИ' Китаю. Пщхщ «перехрещення р'чки за допомогою камен1в» найкраще характеризуе за-гальний розвиток зовн'шньопол'тичноI поведнки Китаю, а не нову загальну кер'вну стратегю або генеральний план 0Б0Й.
© Д1КАРБВ 0.1, ШОСТАК Л.Б., 2018
Формування ринкових вщносин в УкраУж №5 (204)/2018 69
Результати роботи. Було встановлено, що китайська елта оновлюе: (1) свою власну концепцию розвитку нфраструктури в змагальнй тр'ад опщон'т (1) США- (2) БС- (3) - РФ; (2) елта кра-!н Центрально!' Азп, зокрема, китайськ лдери скористалися вдносним зниженням впливу Росн i США в Афганстан на розширення свого впливу; (3) Китайська концепщя нового «Шовкового шляху» спрямована на забезпечення поставок природних, зокрема енергетичних ресурсв - земл'1 газових i нафтових родовищ в Центральна Азп, через море, Малаккську протоку i Арктику.
Висновки. ОБОЙ - це «модерн'защя» полтики Китаю у сферi розвитку пдприемств i галузей Китаю, спрямована на досягнення балансу м'ж колективною '¡дентичн'ютю i /ндив'щуальними прагнен-нями: китайський народ вдчувае себе володарем колективно! волi та 'щентичност'1, сформованою складною Iстор'ею. Пояс являе собою довгострокове китайське бачення зв'язку без будь-яких апр-орних параметрiв по методам, акторам або механзмам з деталiзацiею цих зв'язк1в на сьогодн'1шн'1й день. Тому вн забезпечуе б'\льшу гнучксть / може стати провщною новою моделлю с^впрац I глобального управлння. Пояс, безумовно, розширить закордонн нтереси безпеки Китаю i зажадае вщ Китаю бльш активно! позицИ в питаннях репонально! безпеки, не в останню чергу для захисту сво!х 1нвестиц'1й. Позиця невтручання Китаю, яка розвивалася протягом останнх клькох роюв, швидше за все, стане набагато активншою в майбутньому. Проте, розвиток под)й буде залежати вд конкретно! динам'1ки безпеки в цльових станах пояса в м'ру реал'зацИ нтересу до його ресурсв.
КлючовI слова: геопол'тика Шовкового шляху, ресурсна дипломатя Китаю.
ДИКАРЕВ А.И., ШОСТАК Л.Б.
Китайская стратегия «одного пояса и одного пути»
Предметом исследования является генеральный план ОБОЙ, который может предложить определенные перспективы в качестве платформы для более широкого сотрудничества между ЕС и Китаем по более сложным вопросам безопасности в Евразии. Он представляет собой возможность для ЕС работать в направлении тесного сотрудничества на основе более мягких подходов к вопросам безопасности и развития.
Цель этой статьи - выяснить являются ли: (1) глобальная геополитика и современная международная политика Китая в определенной мере взаимодействием и зависимостью традиционного контекста; (2) намерения китайской элиты не только расширять китайскую экономику, приобретая ресурсы и рынки для экспорта Китая, но целью модернизировать крупнейшие в мире военные силы; (3) реальными возможности более агрессивного китайского внешнеполитического поведения с заявлениями о более широких зонах идентификации ПВО, внедрении в нефтяные буровые установки и искусственные острова в оспариваемых территориальных водах; (4) эффективными возможности продвигать свои собственные дипломатические концепции и инициативы, такие как Азиатский инвестиционный банк (А11Б) и БРИКС-банк, позволяющие более активно добиваться реформирования международной системы; (5) порты, железные дороги ОБОР базой для транспортировки военных сил Китая по всей Азии в будущем, чтобы подтолкнуть маятник мировой экономики с Запада на Восток.
Методология работы - Для вышеупомянутого еще очень предварительного анализа использовался широкий спектр иностранных источников, который поддерживает постепенное развитие нового мышления и новый подход в стратегии внешней политики КНР, что указывает на большие изменения в способах международного взаимодействия Китая. Подход «перекрещивания реки с помощью камней» лучше всего характеризует общее развитие внешнеполитического поведения Китая, а не новую общую руководящую стратегию или генеральный план ОБОЙ.
Результаты работы. Было установлено, что китайская элита обновляет: (1 ) свою собственную концепцию развития инфраструктуры в состязательной триаде опционов (1) США- (2) ЕС-(3)- РФ; (2) элита стран Центральной Азии, в частности, китайские лидеры воспользовались относительным снижением влияния России и США в Афганистане на расширение своего влияния; (3) Китайская концепция нового «Шелкового пути» направлена на обеспечение поставок природных, в частности энергетических ресурсов - земли газовых и нефтяных месторождений в Центральной Азии, через море, Малаккский пролив и Арктику.
Выводы. OBOR - это «модернизация» политики Китая в области развития предприятий и отраслей Китая, направленная на достижение баланса между коллективной идентичностью и индивидуальными устремлениями: китайский народ чувствует себя обладателем коллективной воли и идентичностью, сформированной сложной историей. Пояс представляет собой долгосрочное китайское видение связи без каких-либо априорных параметров по методам, актерам или механизмам с детализацией этих связей на сегодняшний день. Поэтому он обеспечивает большую гибкость и может стать ведущей новой моделью сотрудничества и глобального управления. Пояс, безусловно, расширит зарубежные интересы безопасности Китая и потребует от Китая более активной позиции в вопросах региональной безопасности, не в последнюю очередь для защиты своих инвестиций. Позиция невмешательства Китая, которая развивалась в течение последних нескольких лет, скорее всего, станет гораздо более активной в будущем. Тем не менее, развитие событий будет зависеть от конкретной динамики безопасности в целевых состояниях пояса по мере реализации интереса к его ресурсам.
Ключевые слова: геополитика Шелкового пути, ресурсная дипломатия Китая
DIKAREV O.I., SHOSTAK L.B.
Chinese strategy of «one belt and one way»
The subject of the study is the Belt may offer limited prospects as a platform for broader EU China cooperation on harder security issues in Eurasia. However, it does represent an opportunity for the EU to work towards closer development-security cooperation on a range of softer security or developmental topics.
The purpose of the article.-The referral to the BRI's topic is justified by search of qualified ground from which to answer some of questions: (1) is any measure of interaction and dependence of traditional context China's stratagems' geopolitics and modern international relation principal: (2) about dreams of China elite not only about expanding the Chinese economy by acquiring resources and markets for China's exports, but also on modernizing the world's largest military force; (3) about possibility of a more aggressive Chinese foreign policy behaviour with declarations of more air defence identification zones and introductions of more oil drilling rigs and artificial islands in disputed territorial waters; (4) to advance its own diplomatic concepts and initiatives such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the BRICS-bank and thereby more proactively seek to shape the international system; (5) the ports, railroads of the OBOR could be used to transport China's military forces across Asia in the future in order to push pendulum of world economy to swung from West to East.
Methodology of the work - For the above analysis were used wide range of sources and made different comparison but it is still very preliminary but it does support a gradual development of new thinking and a new approach in China's OBOR's foreign policy strategy under Xi that point to big changes in the way that China engages with the international system. Further research is needed and it seems especially important to focus on the implications of the domestic focus in the Chinese leadership - that is their focus on meeting the growing domestic expectations to the role that China will play in the international system in the years to come. But already possible to say that so a kind stratagem's «crossing the river by feeling for the stones» approach still seems to best characterize the overall development in Chinese foreign policy behaviour rather than a new overall guiding strategy or master plan of OBOR.
The results of the work - It has been established that the Chinese elite is updating: (1 ) its own concept of infrastructure development in the adversarial triad of the options «(1) USA- (2) EU- (3)»; (2) the elite of Central Asian countries, in particular, the Chinese leaders took advantage of the relative decline of influence Russia and the United States in Afghanistan to expand its influence; (3) The Chinese concept of the new Silk Road is aimed at ensuring the supply of natural resources, in particular energy resources - land from gas and oil deposits in Central Asia, and through the sea through the Malacca Strait and the Arctic regions.
Conclusions - A part of what have been signified «new OBOR» are in fact previously carried over projects which are being given new life became a part of «China dream». Hu Jintao had earlier said
about new Silk Road initiative, but it had not gone anywhere. This stratagem was the first to call on Chinese enterprises and industries to «go out» and invest abroad. That is why OBOR is «upgrade» of China's Going Out policy for China's businesses and industries. The stratagem of the China Dream was directed to implementing balance between collective identity and individual aspirations: Chinese people feel as having a collective will and identity shaped by a difficult history. It claims that Xi as the first Chinese leader since Deng is strong enough to push through a rethinking of China's foreign policy strategy. The Belt is a long-term Chinese connectivity vision with no a priori parameters on methods, actors or mechanisms, nor much granularity to date. It therefore allows a great deal of flexibility and could become a leading new model of cooperation and global governance. The Belt will certainly expand China's overseas security interests and will require China to take an increasingly active stance on regional security affairs, not least to protect its investments. China's non-interference stance, which has already been evolving over the past few years, will likely become much more creative in the future. Yet, how this unfolds will depend on the specific security dynamics in Belt target states, as the Belt resources interest implementation progresses.
Key words: geopolitics of the Silk Road, resource diplomacy of China.
Introduction. In all times Chinese elites have presented their own theoretical or ideological concepts: to the development of «socialism with Chinese characteristics» - adapting to the changing challenges; Jiang Zemin's «Sange Daibiao» (H^ftS , «Three Represents») that started to allow private business people into the party; Hu Jintao's «Kexue Fazhan Guan» «Scientific Concept of De-
velopment») that was to open for a more sustainable - both in terms of ecological and social costs - economic growth model. Since Mr. Xi became chairman of the Communist Party in 2012 at the 18-th CCP Congress and as state president in March 2013, he has vowed a «great rejuvenation» to restore China to its ancient prominence and promoted the slogan about «Chinese dream» connected with other Xi's slogan «Sige Quanmian» «Four Compre-
hensives») [6-8;17-18]. At the 19-th CCP Congress in 2017 Xi Jinping thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, was written into the party's constitution and the first time since Mao Zedong. Tracing modern Chinese history from China's humiliating defeat by Great Britain in the mid-nineteenth century, Xi highlighted the «Chinese dream» as a unifying theme for the Chinese to: (1) achieve a great national revival and the 'new type of Great Power relations', which is supposed to characterize Sino-American relations since Xi met Obama; (2) promote relations with states around China's borders; (3): build the 'one belt, one road' initiative (OBOR). Such fact that China Communist Party abolished constitutional limits on presidential terms and allowed President Xi Jinping to lead China indefinitely — was the latest significant sign that China' plans would be fulfilled.
Hu Jintao had earlier evoked the possibility of some kind of new Silk Road initiative, but it had not gone anywhere. Then in autumn 2013 President Xi visited Kazakhstan and Russia, where he announced plans primarily for transport projects with a view to creating an 'economic belt'. The projects together comprise a series of overlapping elements - upgraded and developed transcontinental railway routes, highways, port facilities and energy pipelines. OBOR potentially involves over 60 countries with a combined population of over 4 billion people, whose markets currently account for about one-third of global GDP [13]. According to China's Ministry of Commerce, from January - August 2016, Chinese companies signed 3,912 project contracts throughout 61 countries. The value of those projects amounted to 69.82 billion dol. OBOR is a second wave of Chinese overseas investments and should be seen as a renewed version of China's 2000 Going Out policy, also known as China's «Go Global» strategy. The Belt is related to six planned economic corridors stretching outwards from China throughout Eurasia, some of which merge with the Road. In the EU, these corridors end up in Rotterdam, Hamburg, Prague, Madrid. Minister of Foreign Affairs of China Wang Yi explained political purpose of the OBOR in such words as: peace and developments with neighbouring countries; trilateral cooperation of China-Japan-South Korea, North Korea, India and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations; exploring free trade agreements [1 0] based on the continuation and development of the spirit of the ancient Silk Road. Chris Buck-leyfeb [3] said that to sustain China's global rise, Mr. Xi is modernizing China's military and investing
heavily in a 1 trillion dol. international trade initiative known as Belt and Road. Officially known as «Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era,» the ideology can be given an even more prominent platform: the preamble of China's Constitution. Boiled down, the doctrine is a blueprint for consolidating and strengthening power at three levels: the nation, the party and Mr. Xi himself. The China's economy grew by 6.9 percent 2017, and the growth goal for 2018 year is also robust by global standards. Part of that economic activity will be driven by the country's continued strong spending on infrastructure. The government set aside 115 billion dol. for spending on railways, and more for highway and waterway projects, continuing China's heavy investment in transport networks. China would manage rising levels of domestic debt. China's spending on its military will grow by 8.1 percent 2018 year, taking the official budget for the People's Liberation Army to 1.11 trillion yuan, or about 175 billion dol. Daniel A. Bell's in his book «The China Model: Political Meritocracy and the Limits of Democracy» wrote that overall, however, political reform over the past three decades has been informed by commitment to the general principles of the China model: the lower the level of government, the more democratic the political system; experimentation is more likely to take place, including experiments with brand new practices and institutions, in between the lowest and highest levels of government; and the higher the level of government, the more meritocratic the political system [1].
The aim of the study. The referral to the BRI's topic is justified by search of qualified ground from which to answer some of questions: (1) is any measure of interaction and dependence of traditional context China's stratagems' geopolitics and modern international relation principal: (2) about dreams of China elite not only about expanding the Chinese economy by acquiring resources and markets for China's exports, but also on modernizing the world's largest military force; (3) about possibility of a more aggressive Chinese foreign policy behaviour with declarations of more air defence identification zones and introductions of more oil drilling rigs and artificial islands in disputed territorial waters; (4) to advance its own diplomatic concepts and initiatives such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the BRICS-bank and thereby more pro-actively seek to shape the international system; (5)
the ports, railroads of the OBOR could be used to transport China's military forces across Asia in the future in order to push pendulum of world economy to swung from West to East.
Presenting main material. Professor and Chairman of the Harvard China Fund William C. Kirby, T.M told about China in 2013 that: (1) It may be a 5,000-year-old series of empires, but it is only 102 years old as a country; (2) Politically speaking, there is one China. From the perspective of ethnic, cultural, linguistic, and geographical diversity, one could say that there are many Chinas; (3) China's rise is not a new phenomenon. Outside of the anomalous period of the 1950-1978 with the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, China has been rising over the course of the past century. China is now back to where it could have been had those years not occurred; (4) If China is to lead the 21st century, it needs to lead in «soft power», especially in education, as much as «hard» military and economic power; (5) China's stumbling blocks lie in issues of rule of law and political reform, exemplified by the sudden and mysterious fall of Bo Xilai [8, P. 2]. Professors Forest Reinhardt and John D. Black thought that: (1) Energy matters because what it means to be rich is to have more energy resources at one's disposal. Right now, energy is not a single industry—it has two main value chains; (2) One is vehicle fuels, starting in the oil well and ending in car; (3) The other is electricity, starting with coal, water, wind, natural gas, or sunlight and ending in some electrically powered device; (4) In the next 30 years, the interesting phenomena in the energy industry will result from the convergence of these value chains, for example, synthesizing a non-oil fuel substance that acts like oil to run a car; (5) For any product, there is a spectrum between willingness to pay and production cost, with the equilibrium price of the product somewhere in between. For energy, there are also externality costs to consider, namely environmental and national security costs; (6) What China fears most is this national security cost: a disruption in supply, which could occur from energy becoming too expensive or the energy supply becoming inaccessible. To hedge against these types of threats; (7) China has been actively trying to: (a) Diversify away from oil by investing in new energy and technologies, such as compressed natural gas, nuclear, and coal; (b) Pursue an equity oil strategy, buying paper entitling China to cash flows from oil extracted in Africa, for example; (8) On the agricultural front, there is a
basic similar worry about food security: a disruption in supply on the food front could result in inflation or a food shortage (could be a political issue, could be a weather issue). To hedge against these types of threats is a little more difficult because: (a) Land is a finite resource - what land can be cultivated worldwide is already mostly cultivated. Land in China, in particular, is heavily controlled by the government; (b) Moreover, as China grows richer and people want to eat more meat, the land needs to produce enough grain not only to feed people but also to feed the animals. (The grain needed to feed all these animals will have to be supplemented by imports) [8; P.3]. We can said now that China now is a country of 1.3 billion people, almost 20% of the world's population; It consumes 11% of global oil or 27% of the world's soybeans; China has discovered 171 varieties of minerals, and 158 of them with proved reserves; there are 10 energy-related minerals, including oil, natural gas, coal, uranium. But now it is also the world's second-largest importer (in 2013, it alone accounted for 31% of global growth in oil demand) [6;9]. China's dependence on foreign supplies of oil is at nearly 60%, of which roughly half comes from the Middle East and one quarter from Africa, while dependence on foreign supplies of natural gas is at close to 30%, of which nearly 50% comes from Turkmenistan. 80% of China's energy supplies pass through the Strait of Malacca, which is controlled by the US Navy. In the event of conflict with the USA, China's access to external energy resources could be interdicted. Therefore, one of China's objectives is to create alternative energy and raw material channels across land bridges from Central Asia, South East Asia and Pakistan -and the Belt facilitates this endeavour. These channels, mostly through land, run through sovereign states and are thus perceived to be less vulnerable to US interdiction. In particular, the Pakistani port of Gwadar, which is leased by China and serves as part of the southern corridor of the Belt, could support this purpose of maintaining access to energy resources. [10, p.7]. However, it should be noted that this route faces topographical challenges as well as security threats from insurgency in Pakistani territory. In addition, China's construction of pipelines through Central Asia over the past few years, carrying oil from Kazakhstan and natural gas from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, has, in relative terms, reduced its dependence on maritime and Russian imports [1 0]. China contributes more than 90% of
global output of the 17 rare earth metals, but its own deposits only account for 36.4% of the world's total reserve of 100 million tons. China can produce over 400 varieties of rare earth products in more than 1,000 specifications. In 2011, China produced 96,900 tonnes of rare earth smelting separation products, accounting for more than 90 percent of the world's total output [19]. China formed its own modernization stratagems. Francois Jullien called it stratagems. He thinks that «the key to Chinese strategy is to rely on the inherent potential of a situation and to be carried along by it as it evolves. It can be formed in such words as «crossing the river by feeling for the stones» (mozhe shitou guohe, mre^jlM) approach) [16, p.20]. Such inherent potential we feel in initiatives of Xi and other Chinese foreign policy leaders in their articulation of a new strategic direction for Chinese foreign policy known as: «Fen Fa You Wei» (^^/t^, «striving for achievement»); «Gengjia Jiji» «be more active»); «Gengjia Zhudong» (
«take greater initiative»); «Jiji Jinqu» «actively go in» [20]. And necessary to say that this slogans are supported by actions: China itself has committed up to 1 trillion dollars to develop infra-structural investment transport links inside the country, much of which will go to the western part of China that will be part of the 'belt'; The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which China set up in 2015 to both complement and compete with the US- and Japan-dominated Asian Development Bank, reportedly has 65 billion dollars in initial capital to support investments of this type; the China Development Bank has notionally reserved a further 890 billion for the development of various sections of the corridor outside the country. Some western estimates put the capital requirement for the latter much higher. The overall time-scale for the project has been set at roughly 35 years. But, we think that OBOR has more sound historical tradition. The period between II BC to X AD is interpreted as the most splendid time in the commercial road communication from the East to the West. There were two great centralized empires: Roman Empire and Han Dynasty Empire; Byzantine Empire and Tang Dynasty Empire. It was only one difference since II BC: the trade was with an intense diplomatic activity, which was guided by Han dynasty (206 BC-220 AD). The Silk Road's products were: materials (silk, medicaments, spices, wood, iron, copper, gunpowder, and gems), technology (compass) and ideology (different religions). The
minerals were very important strategic goods, as the government tried to control its extraction in centralized empires. An example of this mineral production's control is China, in s. 1 BC, where it was necessary to state made a monopoly of production and marketing of salt and steel. This monopoly could be possible thanks to the management of mines and furnace. This monopoly was repeated during Tang dynasty (618-907), several centuries after Han Dynasty's fall [2;5]. In the Roman Empire we must remind the restrictive laws over silk trade, the Roman Senate issued in several times to check the precious metal flight when Oriental products import were paid. In II BC the diplomatic and trade relations were managed from Han Dynasty to Eurasia. It became a road to spread Christianity as well: in 635 CE, Nestorian missionaries from Ctesiphon reached China. Its most famous traveler was Marco Polo, who wrote about minerals of the Silk Road, the finest and biggest rubies in the world. This information was used by Rich-thofen's in 1870-1872 who reported to the European-American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai on China's regional commercial, mining, and railroad prospects highlighted the significance of future lines running west from Xi'an to coal-rich «northern route» around the Tarim Basin. Hedin effectively set Central Asia history and world politics to geological time. Hedin's bid to «Plan for the Revival of the Silk Road» transformed geological Richthofen's Silk into an urgent geopolitical strategy. His first Sino-Swed-ish scientific expedition (1927-1928) in Central Asia sought the best airline route between Berlin and Peking-Shanghai on behalf of the German government ay Lufthansa; his third Sino-Swedish expedition (1933-1935) plotted a motor-road route between Europe and China financed by the Chinese Nationalist government [11-12].
Now Marline Laruelle, Jean-Fran3ois Huchet assesses the dimension of Central Asia's XXI century as «Great Game» [17]. They analyzed new Silk Road's diplomacy of the major players: one is an «external» party - the U S - insofar as it has no shared borders with the region while the two others - Russia and China - are neighbouring countries. Russian influence has been historical and remains preponderant. The US is actor of the more recent past, but remains tenacious about expanding its presence. China, on the other hand, has had an extraordinary run to leadership in the region. The proposal for a «New Silk Road» from US diplomacy dates
back to the 1990 s., when Republican Senator Sam Brownback, who closely cooperated with Prof Frederick Starr in his legislative initiative «Silk Road Act», echoed a strikingly similar initiative. The plans original architect, Frederick Starr, chair of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, advanced the proposal in conjunction with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. At the Istanbul Conference of 2011, Western leadership introduced a controversial template for new security architecture for Central and South Asia. The US diplomacy was going to build «New Silk Road» project as quintessentially of its Greater Central Asia strategy dating back to the George W. Bush presidency for such purposes: facilitating Central Asia's efforts to return to its historic role as the gateway between East and West; Turkmen gas fields could help meet both Pakistan's and India's growing energy needs and provide significant transit revenues for both Afghanistan and Pakistan; Tajik cotton could be turned into linens; Furniture, fruit from Afghanistan could find its way to the markets of Astana, Mumbai; the construction of the nearly one billion dol. Central Asia-South Asia electricity project (CASA-1000) [15]. The CA-SA-1000 line runs 759 miles through four of the most unstable countries for number of tasks: connect surplus summer hydroelectricity in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to electricity-starved Afghanistan and Pakistan; create alternative energy corridors for post-Soviet countries; break their dependence on Russia's infrastructural ties. It appeared to be that the high-profile nature of the project will make it a target for competition and risks to destabilize the region. The ability of local forces to coordinate and secure of infrastructure alone will be extremely difficult. The U.S. is wary of Russian involvement in the region and its attempt to control any arrangement and undermine Washington's efforts to decouple Central Asia from Moscow's influence. The United States and China have developed competing visions for reviving ancient trade routes connecting Asia and Europe. The U.S. diplomatic strategy focuses on Afghanistan, while China hopes to economically integrate Central and South Asia. India and Russia also have regional ambition. In 2018 China in response to President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium from China announced the introduction of increased duties on 128 items of goods imported from the United States. Such steps Beijing ex-
plained by US's violation of the rules of the WTO, the need to protect its interests and balance the losses caused by US measures. China explained that Beijing is ready to resolve trade contradictions with Washington solely on the basis of mutual respect and equality through dialogue and consultations.
China, despite the meeting of Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump scheduled for May 2018, at which the demilitarization of the Korean peninsula was to be discussed, has initiated and conducted diplomatic negotiations with DPRK. China is likely to be the guarantor of North Korea's security. China's new defence minister General Wei Fenghe visit to Russia is a signal about the increasingly close military ties between Moscow and Beijing.
Russia's interests were confirmed when Russia's Inter RAO-United Electrical Systems signed a 25-year contract with China. Russia has chances and risks in Central Asia but has shown a possibility to reach its diplomatic interests. Russian leaders understand that Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan can go in more integrative relations only in terms of widening energy market. And not only becoming energy exporters, importers, transit countries but member of energy club of equal interests in deal with China, India, Pakistan. Russia's experience with Central Asian electrical systems and its own vast hydroelectric potential makes Russia ready to facilitate Central Asia's hydroelectric needs. It also blends in with the concept of an Energy Club of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (CSO). The elite of Russia in its decision to participate in the creation of energy and transport corridors in Eurasian region have far reaching geopolitical goals. The leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus have signed in May 2014 a treaty in Astana on the creation of a Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EES) which will come into effect in January 2015. Cutting down trade barriers and comprising over 170 million people it will be the largest common market [18].
Russian economic overdependence on China, as a result of which Russia is attempting to connect with Mongolian and South Korean regional integration initiatives and is seeking warmer ties with Japan. Indeed, Russia's 'turn to the East' has put it in a politico-economic position of precarious overdepen-dence on China - this is unlikely to be sustainable and is likely to affect Russian security interests negatively over time. The interlinking of the EEU and the Belt is still unfolding, but it has brought Russia and
China close. And Beijing has own plans for a «Polar Silk Road» in the Arctic as global warming allows for the expansion of shipping routes across the top of the world. China, which does not border the Arctic region but is one of thirteen countries holding observer status with the Arctic Council, released the white paper on Friday calling for greater international cooperation over infrastructure and shipping routes in the Arctic. The Northeast Passage above Russia offers a faster route than the 48 days it can take to sail from northern China to Rotterdam via the Suez Canal. In 2017 a Russian tanker travelled from Norway to South Korea without an icebreaker escort for the first time in a trip that took 19 days. China dreams to have a major role in expanding to network of shipping routes. But this plan contradicts Russian's interests [22]. Traditionally, Indian policy toward China has been mostly characterized by continuity. But though Beijing has resolved most of its land border issues with neighbouring Russia, Pakistan and Afghanistan, India remains an exception. India has other worries over China's growing presence in the region, fearing strategic encirclement by a «string of pearls» around the India Ocean and on land as China builds ports, railways and power stations in country such as Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. The current strategic mistrust between Delhi and Beijing will make it very difficult for Indian policymakers to accept the «One Belt, One Road» initiative in its present form Beijing has to co-design the new Silk Road with India for it to have any chance of success. If the Chinese government wants to address the trust deficit and get a larger buy-in from Indians, it will have to engage Delhi in designing and implementing «One Belt, One Road» [4].
At this point in time, the Belt may offer limited prospects as a platform for broader EU China cooperation on harder security issues in Eurasia. However, it does represent an opportunity for the EU to work towards closer development-security cooperation on a range of softer security or developmental topics. Pre-empting negative geopolitical and geo-economics competition with China, the EU can utilize the Belt to gradually hone strategic ties with China, and nurture greater mutual political trust and understanding of security interests. Admittedly, such engagement might take place only gradually, given geopolitical and geo-economics realities, as well as EU institutional lacunae. However, the EU could start with a strategic assess-
ment and the creation of a forward-looking agenda that discusses the Belt's security implications in Central Asia, South Asia and other Eurasian (sub-) regions of EU security interest [10]. Theresa May has joined The UK to «Great Game» and sidestepped a Chinese push for a formal endorsement of its 900bn Silk Road strategy, suggesting Britain still has concerns about China's political objectives for the huge infrastructure project. The UK did not sign a memorandum of understanding giving Britain's official endorsement to the 900bn dol. Critics have said the project is designed to pull other countries in the region deeper into China's sphere of influence, and that it could give unfair preferential treatment to Chinese contractors. 'Global standards and cyber security' amid doubts over political aims of Xi Jinping Belt and Road plan [7].
Scientific novelty. For the above analysis were used wide range of sources and made different comparison but it is still very preliminary but it does support a gradual development of new thinking and a new approach in China's OBOR's foreign policy strategy under Xi that point to big changes in the way that China engages with the international system. Further research is needed and it seems especially important to focus on the implications of the domestic focus in the Chinese leadership - that is their focus on meeting the growing domestic expectations to the role that China will play in the international system in the years to come. But already possible to say that so a kind stratagem's «crossing the river by feeling for the stones» approach still seems to best characterize the overall development in Chinese foreign policy behaviour rather than a new overall guiding strategy or master plan of OBOR.
Conclusion
A part of what have been signified «new OBOR» are in fact previously carried over projects which are being given new life became a part of «China dream». Hu Jintao had earlier said about new Silk Road initiative, but it had not gone anywhere. This stratagem was the first to call on Chinese enterprises and industries to «go out» and invest abroad. That is why OBOR is «upgrade» of China's Going Out policy for China's businesses and industries. The stratagem of the China Dream was directed to implementing balance between collective identity and individual aspirations: Chinese people feel as having a collective will and identity shaped by a difficult history.
It claims that Xi as the first Chinese leader since Deng is strong enough to push through a rethinking of China's foreign policy strategy. The Belt is a long-term Chinese connectivity vision with no a priori parameters on methods, actors or mechanisms, nor much granularity to date. It therefore allows a great deal of flexibility and could become a leading new model of cooperation and global governance. The Belt will certainly expand China's overseas security interests and will require China to take an increasingly active stance on regional security affairs, not least to protect its investments. China's noninterference stance, which has already been evolving over the past few years, will likely become much more creative in the future. Yet, how this unfolds will depend on the specific security dynamics in Belt target states, as the Belt resources interest implementation progresses.
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Даш про автора
Д1карев Олександр Iванович,
кандидат полiтичних наук, профессор, Мiжрегiональна академiя управлЫня персоналом e-mail: [email protected] ЛЫя Борисвна Шостак,
д.е.н., професор, головний науковий ствробггник, Державний науково-дослщний Ыститут Ыформати-зацп та моделювання економки МУстерства еконо-мiчного розвитку та торгiвлi Укра'1'ни e-mail: [email protected]
Данные об авторе
Дикарев Александр Иванович,
кандидат политических наук, профессор, Межрегиональная академия управления персоналом e-mail: [email protected] Лилия Борисовна Шостак,
д.э.н., профессор, главный научный сотрудник, Государственный научно-исследовательский институт информатизации и моделирования экономики Министерства экономического развития и торговли Украины e-mail: [email protected]
Data about the author Olexander Dikarev,
Candidate of Political Science, Pnofesson Intennegional Academy of Pensonnel Management e-mail: [email protected] Lilia Shostak,
Dn. of economy science, Pnofesson, Pnincipal Reseanchen, State Reseanch Institute of Infonmatization and Economic Modeling, Ministry of Economic Development and Tnade of Ukraine e-mail: [email protected]
