CC BY
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УДК 657.4
Абдуллаев К.Н.
ВОПРОСЫ ПОВЫШЕНИЯ РЕЙТИНГОВОЙ ПОЗИЦИИ СЕКТОРА ЖЕЛЕЗНОДОРОЖНОГО ТРАНСПОРТА АЗЕРБАЙДЖАНСКОЙ РЕСПУБЛИКИ В МЕЖДУНАРОДНОМ ОТЧЕТЕ О КОНКУРЕНТОСПОСОБНОСТИ
Аннотация
Статья посвящена вопросам повышения позиции сектора железнодорожного транспорта Азербайджанской Республики в международном рейтинге в отчете о международной конкурентоспособности. В статье отмечается и обосновывается необходимость предоставления гражданам качественных услуг железнодорожного транспорта в соответствии с международным опытом. В результате анализа были определены проблемы, препятствующие развитию железнодорожного транспорта в Азербайджане, нынешняя ситуация и перспективы развития в этой области. Кроме того, изучены роль частного сектора в функционировании железнодорожного транспорта в некоторых развитых странах, осуществляемые экономические меры и их эффективность, достигнутые положительные экономические результаты, выявлена возможность применения этого опыта в Азербайджанской Республике.
В статье также приведены статистические и экономические анализы, а также прогнозные расчеты основных экономических показателей, зарегистрированных в последние годы в области функционирования железнодорожного транспорта Азербайджанской Республики, определены существующие проблемы и пути их решения, еще раз подтверждена важность сокращения доли государственного сектора в сфере железнодорожного транспорта и формирования частного сектора.
На основе проведенного исследования автор обосновал целесообразность упразднения в Азербайджане государственного сектора на железнодорожном транспорте для достижения прогресса по международным рейтинговым показателям в этом виде транспорта, проведения серьёзных структурных реформ, создания новых частных железнодорожных компаний, формирования инвестиций из частных источников и т.д. В статье представлены научно обоснованные предложения и рекомендации по исследуемой проблеме
Kлючевые слова
Tранспорт, приватизация, интеграция, общественный транспорт, инвестиция, развитие.
JEL: L92, R41
Abdullayev K.N.
ISSUES OF RAISING RATING POSITION
OF RAILWAY TRANSPORT SECTOR OF THE AZERBAIJAN REPUBLIC IN THE INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS REPORT
Annotation
The article is devoted to the improving position of railway transport of the Azerbaijan Republic on the international rating in the International Competitiveness Report. The article
notes and substantiates the need to provide citizens with high-quality railway transport services in accordance with international experience. As a result of the analysis, problems hindering development of railway transport in Azerbaijan, the current situation and development prospects in this transport branch were identified. In addition, role of private sector in the functioning of railway transport in some developed countries, implemented economic measures and their effectiveness, achieved economic results were studied and the possibility of applying this experiences in the Azerbaijan Republic were shown. The article also provides statistical and economic analyses, as well as forecast calculations of the main economic indicators registered in recent years in the field of railway transport of the Azerbaijan Republic, identifies existing problems and ways to solve them, and confirms the importance of reducing share of public sector in the field of railway transport and formation of the private sector.
Moreover, in article for to achieve progress on the international rating indicators of Azerbaijan's railway transport in the International Competitiveness Report state sector in this type of transport must be abolished, to carry out serious structural reforms, to create new private railway companies, to attract investment from private sources and etc. directions scientifically based proposals and recommendations were presented.
Keywords
Transport, privatization, integration, public transport, investment, development.
Introduction. The Azerbaijan's economic power and transit potential increased significantrly after signing the «Contract of the Century» in 1994, which laid the foundations for the development of Azerbaijan in all vital economic areas. Azerbaijan Republic is actively involved in the implementation of international projects which aim to ensure regional security, economic development and integration. Azerbaijan with a history of acting as a bridge connecting the East and West, North and South has been able to take a leading position in the region as a state with favourable transit conditions. Today, as a result of the rapid development of transport corridors passing through Azerbaijan, the efficiency of transportation services improves, and the speed and safety of transportation operations grows. Dynamically implemented global projects and rapid economic development of Azerbaijan are the main factors for establishment of the stable and reliable transportaton corridor and integration processes. Implementation of project within the framework of «Baku-Tbilisi-Kars» railroad will promote further
integration of Azerbaijan and the whole region with the European community [1].
According to the data provided by global financial structures, due to the high rate of GDP growth Azerbaijan holds one of the first places among the leading developing countries. This tendency is continued today owing to the successfully carried out economic policy; and the implementation of the envisaged large-scaled projects promises three fold growth of GDP in all spheres of Azerbaijan Republic's economy by 2018. Relying on its favorable geographical location and rationally utilizing its globally significant natural resources and potential, Azerbaijan widely cooperates with many states and important economic and financial structures in many fields; implementation of over 200 multinational and trans regional projects is continued today owing to their active participation. Among these important projects are the development of hydrocarbon resources of the Caspian basin and their transportation to the world markets.
Theoretical approaches to privatization processes in transport sector. Important theoretical conceptual and practical issues related to the development of private
entrepreneurship in the transport sector has been regularly analyzed in developed countries (including post-soviet countries) by well known foreign scientists on transport sector and international finance and transportation problems. In the postsoviet space Qromoqlasova E.S. [3], Biry-ukova O.V. [2], Shelistov Y.E. [4], Pak E.V., Polyanova T.N. [5], Rachek S.V. [6], Promaxina I.M. [7], Abdullayev K.N. [1] and others, in the scientific works, monographs, articles, thesis, (also in European Economic Commission, World Bank annual reports) realization privatization process in transport sector, development of private entrepreneurship, increase of competitiveness of private companies, expansion of activity of private transport companies in the world transport services market, elimination of state monopoly on transport companies [6], implementation structural reforms, improvement of transport policy in the European Union, introduction main experience of leading European countries in post-soviet countries, current situation and development of private entrepreneur-ship activities in different types of transport in European Union, provision free competition between small, medium and large private transport companies and etc. in this directions serious investigations were carried out. Since 2000 major international financial institutions such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and World Bank, as well as European Economic Commission recommend to post-soviet countries (including Azerbaijan Republic) to realize structural reforms and elimination of state control and monopoly initiating stage by stage privatization process in railway, sea air transport branches (also, partly including pipeline transport, metropolitan transport). But during the last years this problem has not yet been solved in Azerbaijan Republic. Moreover, European Union realized different measures to corre-
spond with economic relation in transport sector for support free market economic condition [5]. For example, in directive 91/440 adopted in recent years [3] by the European Union (EU) on post-soviet countries showed that effective competition potential of different transport branches (including railway transport) must be correspond to economic principles of market economy [1].
According to the International Competitiveness Report in 2019, the position of some post-soviet countries on railway density indicators among 141 countries were different [8]. For example, Azerbaijan Republic ranked 34th among 141 countries in 2019 in terms of railroad density (km of roads/1000 square km). According to this indicator, Azerbaijan was ahead among the post-soviet countries of such as Georgia (44), Kazakhstan (66), Kyrgyzstan (86), Russia (64), Tajikistan (72) among the post-Soviet countries. Only such states as Ukraine (25) and Moldova (27) were ahead of Azerbaijan in terms of the railway density. Although such countries as Singapore (1), Germany (7) are ahead of Azerbaijan, USA (48), Iran (67), Turkey (52), etc. some countries have lagged behind Azerbaijan (Table 1).
In the International Competitiveness Report, Japan (1), Singapore (5), Azerbaijan (11), USA (12) were in the leading positions on the efficiency of railway transport services among 141 countries. It should be noted that the Azerbaijan Republic was ahead of such countries as Georgia (43), Germany (16), Iran (52), Kazakhstan (33), Kyrgyzstan (77), Moldova (69), Russia (17), Tajikistan (37), Turkey (56), Ukraine (34) (Fig. 1).
The analysis shows that for improvement of Azerbaijan's position in the international ratings on transport services are influenced different obstacles and problems existing in the country's activities of different types of transport, which must be gradually eliminated.
Table 1 - Azerbaijan's position on railroad density (km of roads/1000 square km) indicators in the Global Competitiveness Report (2019) [8]
Countries Values Ranks (between 141 countries)
Azerbaijan 25,8 34
Georgia 18,5 44
Germany 95,9 7
Iran 5,5 67
Kazakhstan 5,9 66
Kyrgyzstan 2,2 86
Moldova 35,0 27
Russia 5,2 64
Tajikistan 4,5 72
Turkey 13,3 52
Ukraine 37,3 25
USA 16,5 48
Singapore 281,5 1
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5, 0
77
«
■ ■
11 CO ,2 6,1 3,9 1 16
4,9 3,7 ■1 ■ 4,2 28
69
56
37 34
1 1 I 1
17 hi »
3 4,9 4,i ■1 ■ 3,5 ■ 42
/^vy V>V V
» ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ & ^ ^ ^ j? Values ■ Ranks (between 141 countries)
^ - - CT
Figure 1 - Dynamics of change in position on the efficiency of train services
in some countries [8]
In recent years in transport corridor of Europe-Caucasus-Asia in railway transport segments decreasing tendencies
on cargoes transportation and incomes are observed (Table 2).
Table 2 - Activity of the Transport Corridor Europe - Caucasus - Asia (TRACECA) in the territory of Azerbaijan Republic (1 USA $=1.70 manat (AZN)) [9]
Indicators 2017 2018
Transported goods (thousand tonnes) 52733 52674
Railway transport 13074 12564
Transportation transit goods (thousand tonnes) Railway transport 10186 3346 9345 3045
Incomes from goods transportation, thousand manats Railway transport 651783 221657 633608 211657
Incomes from transit transportation in railway transport (thousand manats) 78323 72691
If in 2017 in the Azerbaijan part of transport corridor 52733 thousand tonnes of freight were transported by transport sector, but in 2018 this indicator decreased to 52674 thousand tonnes. Railway cargo transportation decreased to 12564 thousand tonnes (2018), in comparison with the previous year. In 2018 transportation transit goods by railway transport also decreased to 3045 thousand tonnes in 2018 in comparison with 2017. In 2018 incomes from goods transportation by railway transport decreased to 211657 thousand manats [9]. In 2018 incomes from transit transportation
Table 3 - Goods transportation in railway
(thousand
decreased in railway transport to 72691 thousand manats in comparison with the previous year (Table 2).
The analysis shows that in recent years goods transportation in railway transport sectors are decreased. For example, if in 2014 goods transportation were in railway transport 21795 thousand tonnes, but in 2018 these indicators accordingly decreased to 13954 thousand tonnes in railway transport. In 2015-2017 goods transportation indicators also declined in railway transport sector (Table 3).
transport sectors of Azerbaijan Republic tonnes) [9]
Years 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Railway transport 21795 17090 15479 14558 13954
Methodological approaches to the development of railway transport sector in Azerbaijan Republic. In recent years, significant differences between the incomes and annual expenditures on freight and passenger transportation in railway transport have been observed in the Azerbaijan Republic. For example, if incomes on railway transport in 2014 amounted to 236303 thousand manats, in 2018 this indicator increased by 34538 thousand manats
and reached to 270841 thousand manats (1$ (USA) = 1,70 (AZN)). In comparison with 2014, the volume of expenditures on railway transport in 2018 increased by 99676 thousand manats and reached to 323427 thousand manats. Only in 2018, the negative balance between expenditures and incomes amounted to 52586 thousand manats. The volume of expenditures increased more intensively in 2016-2018 (Table 4). The analysis shows that the an-
nual expenditures of railway transport in last years exceeds the annual incomes. This makes it necessary to carry out structural
reforms, to create new small and medium-sized private companies on railway transport.
Table 4 - Incomes and expenditures on railway transport (including cargoes and passengers transportation ) in Azerbaijan (in thousand manats, 1$ (USA) =1,70 AZN) [9]
Years Incomes (x) Expenditures (y)
2014 236303 223751
2015 232077 201976
2016 202435 327401
2017 279202 460350
2018 270841 323427
We can determine the trend line, as well determination and correlation coefficients between incomes and expenditures for railway transport (Figure 2). If we look at the graph, we can see that this connection consists of the regression model, expressed in the equation of y=1,770x-12487. The determination coefficient 0,289
means that the corresponding regression
equation are explained by 28,9% dispersion result indicators and 71,1% influence by other factors. The lower determination coefficient indicates that the regression equation is due to weaker expression of the initial data and less part of the result factors (28,9%) are explained by the factors included in the model.
Expenditures 500000
400000 300000 200000 100000 0
y = 1,770x - 12487
R2 = 0,289
50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000
Incomes
0
Figure 2 - Correlation between transportation incomes and expenditures on railway transport in Azerbaijan Republic
If we calculate the Elasticity coeffi- degree of change of the dependent variable
cient (E) for the linear regression equation by 1% change of the free variable, we get
of the double correlation the following prices [7]: 1, 7 7 Ox — 12487, which determines the
x = & = 1220818 = 2441 7 1,6, y = ^ = 1836008 = 3 O7 38 1,
n _ 5 n 5
„ a,x 1,770 x244 17 1,6 „ „ _ .
E = — = 1-- = 1,4 n= 5 year (2014-2018),
y 3 0 7 3 8 1 J v '
2 x - total incomes of railway transport railway transport in 2014-2018; x — in 2014-2018 ; — to tal expenditures of ave rage i n c o m e s o f rai lway tra n s p o rt
i n 20 14 — 20 18 ; y" - average expenditures o f r a i 1 way tr a n s po rt in 2014-2018.
The analysis shows that 1% increase of incomes of railway transport influence to 1,4% increase of expenditures of railway transport in Azerbaijan Republic. If we look at the graph between the incomes and expenditures on general transportation in railway transport, we can see that the correlation coefficient is R= V0,289=0,53. This also indicates that the density of the relationship is at a felt level according to the Cheddok scale. Analysis shows that the process of increasing expenditures are more intensive and exceeds incomes. That is why the creation of the private sector on railway transport can play an important role in the elimination of economic downturns in this area (Figure 2).
In recent years, the volume of investment in the development of railway transport is also growing. For example, if in 2017 this figure amounted to 2088 thousand manats, but in 2018 this indicator increased by 3,3 times and reached to 7085
thousand manats. The share of investment in the development of the railway transport was 1.9% in 2014 and 2,1% in 2018, respectively. In last 2014-2018, the expenditures of railway transport has increased even more.
Taking into account the above, according to the trend model for the period covering 2014-2018 on railway transport, the forecast indicators for 2022 will be calculated according to the MS Excel 2019 software package. According to the forecast expenditures of railway transport in the Azerbaijan Republic will increase to 536329,6 thousand manats in 2019, to 623803,6 thousand manats in 2020,
678764.8 thousand manats in 2021,
766238.9 thousand manats in 2022. As can be seen from the analysis, the expenditures of railway transport will increase every year in 2019-2022. Therefore, it is necessary to implement serious structural reforms and to create a private sector in railway transport (Figure 3).
1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0
766238,9115
623803,(678764'8551
536329,6417
460350 327401 ■ 323427
22375 201976
I I I
I
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
■ Expenditures ■ Forecast (expenditures)
Figure 3 - Forecasts of expenditures on railway transport for the next years in the Azerbaijan Republic (in thousand manats)
Source: the graph presented in MS Excel 2019 software package according to the report of author.
Conclusions. It is necessary to implement the following measures in the near future for to develop activity of the private companies and private entrepreneurship on railway transport in the Azerbaijan Republic:
• «Azerbaijan Railways» (Closed Joint Stock Company (CJSC)) should be gradually privatized, became an Open Joint Stock Company. Moreover, are important to estimate of its assets by international
transport experts and consultants of the European Union, also the World Bank (should be involved in these processes), as a result of which the control share of the this company should be offered to foreign and local investors in the form of open auction, contest and directing share to exchange. At the same time, it is possible to improve the financial efficiency of «Azerbaijan Railways» CJSC and quality of services in domestic and international transport services markets;
• creation of private railway transport companies with low budget (including small, medium and large-volume cargo and passenger transportation, infrastructure maintenance and repair enterprises) with the status of legal entity belonging to the state or private sector (also possible in mixed - state and private joint form). Control packet of shares (and fixed part) must be belong to «Azerbaijan Railways" (CJSC) or private sector;
• it is important to stimulate investment by local and private entrepreneurs in this area and gradually crossing to the free tariffs on domestic and transit transportation in the field of private entre-preneurship;
• to increase good and passenger transportation on railway transport sector, for this purpose construction new highspeed railways, as well modernization of railway transport infrastructure;
• to adopt digital transformation strategy on railway transport in Azerbaijan Republic and etc.
Библиографический список
1. Абдуллаев К.Н. Рынок транспортных услуг в Азербайджанской Республике: монография. - Баку: Авропа, 2017. - 194 с.
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Bibliographic list
1. Abdullayev K.N. Transport services market of the Azerbaijan Republic: monograph. - Baku: Science and knowledge, 2017. - 172 р.
2. Biryukova O.V. Barriers to the EU Single Services Market // MGIMO Review of International Relations. - 2015. -No. 2 (41). - Рр. 265-274.
3. Qromoqlasova E.S. Practice of transport policy of European Union for Eurasia // Eastern Analitic. - 2010. -No. 1. - Рр. 134-145.
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5. Pak E.V., Polyanova T.N. General transport policy of European Union as a example for Eurasian Economic Union // News of MSUIR. - 2015. - No. 3 (42). -Pp. 199-209.
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7. Promaxina I.M., Econometrics. -Moscow: East-West, 2009. - 248 p.
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