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РАЗДЕЛ 1. УПРАВЛЕНИЕ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИМИ СИСТЕМАМИ
К. Н. Абдуллаев
РАЗВИТИЕ ТРАНСПОРТНЫХ СВЯЗЕЙ РЕСПУБЛИКИ АЗЕРБАЙДЖАН СО СТРАНАМИ ЕВРОСОЮЗА НА ОСНОВЕ МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫХ ТРАНЗИТНЫХ ТРАНСПОРТНЫХ ПРОЕКТОВ «ВОСТОК-ЗАПАД» (ТРАСЕКА),
«СЕВЕР-ЮГ» И «ЮГ-ЗАПАД»
Аннотация
Статья посвящена вопросам развития транспортных связей Азербайджанской Республики со странами Евросоюза на основе международных проектов «Восток-Запад» (Трасека), «Север-Юг» и «Юг-Запад». Подчеркивается значимость участия Азербайджана в глобальных транспортных альянсах. Перспективы его привлечения к новым транзитным проектам подтверждает рост международного авторитета Республики.
В статье выявлены проблемы, связанные с расширением транзитных возможностей. Показаны основные направления развития различных взаимосвязанных транспортных инфраструктур как одно из основных направлений национальной транспортной политики в Азербайджане. Географическое расположение Азербайджана позволяет развивать транспортную инфраструктуру с Востока на Запад и с Севера на Юг. Динамично претворяемые в жизнь глобальные проекты и стремительное экономическое развитие Азербайджана являются основными факторами создания стабильного и надежного транспортного коридора и интеграционных процессов. Реализация проектов в рамках Южного газового коридора и железной дороги Баку - Тбилиси - Карс послужит дальнейшему углублению интеграции Азербайджана и в целом региона в Европейское Сообщество. Выявлены упущения и недостатки, определены направления по их устранению в ближайшем перспективном периоде, а также даны научно обоснованные выводы и предложения.
Ключевые слова
Транспорт, инвестиции, интеграция, глобализация, частное предпринимательство, транзит, развитие, вид транспорта.
K. N. Abdullayev
DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSPORT CONNECTION OF AZERBAIJAN REPUBLIC WITH EUROPEAN UNION'S COUNTRIES ON THE BASE OF INTERNATIONAL TRANSIT TRANSPORT PROJECTS «EAST-WEST» (TRACECA), «NORTH-SOUTH» AND «SOUTH-WEST»
Annotation
Article dedicated to development of transport connection of Azerbaijan Republic with European Union's countries on the base of international transit transport project such as «East-West» (Traceca), «North-South» and «South-West». Author emphasizes significance to take part Azerbaijan Republic in global transport alliances. Perspectives attract to new transit projects improve international leadership of Republic. In article reveals problems increasing transit opportunities and shows that different transport infrastructure one of the main direction of national transport policy in Azerbaijan Republic. Geographical location of Azerbaijan enables to develop transport infrastructure from East to West and from North to South. Dynami-
cally implemented global projects and rapid economic development of Azerbaijan are the main factors for establishment of the stable and reliable transportation corridor and integration processes. Implementation of projects within the framework of the South gas corridor and Baku - Tbilisi - Kars railroad will promote further integration of Azerbaijan and the whole region with the European community. Moreover, at the same time on the base of investigation exposed shortage and imperfection, defined direction for remove in nearest perspective period, also gave scientific substantiated conclusions and recommendations in presented article.
Keywords
Transport, investment, integration, globalization, private enterprise, transit, development, mode of transport.
Introduction
As a result of rapid development of infrastructure of transport channels passing through the territory of Azerbaijan, efficiency of transport services and speed and safety of transportation increase. Dynamically implemented global projects and rapid economic development of Azerbaijan are the main factors for establishment of the stable and reliable transportation corridor and integration processes.
Transport significance has immeasurably grown up at the modern stage of development of global economic system. Nowadays one can hardly imagine the life of a certain state without a powerful transport infrastructure. Commodity turnover between the countries is growing in a globalizing world as well [14]. Growth of external trade turnover is forecasted by 1,5-2 times between the European and Asian countries in upcoming 5-10 years. Competition at market of international transport services makes everybody consider new economically beneficial transportation routes connecting Europe and Asia. This mainly concerns the routes passing through the Caspian region located at junction of East and Asia, North and South [1].
Suitable geostrategic position of Azerbaijan Republic provided its development in international transport corridors as accessible transit country. From this point of view had increased regional leadership of Azerbaijan in between Europe and Asia continent. Azerbaijan Republic its transit potentials had realized from 1996
by Trans Caucasus transport corridor within the work of TRACECA (Europe-Caucasus-Asia transport corridor) project which is supported by European Union [2].
Modern economic condition and realities in Europe - Caucasus - Asia transport corridor TRACECA (via Azerbaijan territory)
In general «Europe-Caucasus-Asia» transport project which is support by European Union are the main priority directions to provide functional activity and development Trans European transport network (TENs), PanEurope transport zone and «West-East» transport corridor [15]. Azerbaijan's effective activate of regionaltransit projects provide its exist as a leader country in the region. The main reason of this processes are considering crossing and transition transit transport ways from «North-South», to «West-East» in Azerbaijan territory.
From 1998 year in despite of between participant countries in TRACECA transport corridor had increased international economic relations, but from 2000 after is being created new transport corridor «North-South» was strengthened competition among two transport corridors. Therefore, competition was increased such directions as effective organization of transit conveyance and for achieve more revenues between regional countries.
We must note that every year via «North-South» international corridor was transporting approximately 5 mln tonnes goods. In this corridor framework if creat-
ed all transport infrastructure in participant countries, maybe to increase this indicator yearly to 20 mln tonnes. «TRACECA» transport project's participant countries to economize 15-20 % transport expenses and 24 hour period if to compare «North-South» transport transit corridor's identical with indicators [13]. Very effective transportation route in project is considering to direction of TransCaspian sea. Crossing variant of «North-South» transport corridor via territory Azerbaijan Republic is very suitable. In this project short delivery distance, minimum delivery time, developed transport infrastructures, other transit transport factors are playing main role. Practice shows that participant post-soviet countries in «TRACECA» project to collide with different problems [16]. Difficulties for realization qualitative transport services in accordance with European standards to require many financial resources for preservation road-ferry lines in Caspian and Black sea territory. To give preference to various transport routes with different regional directions by China and other countries are considering the main problems in this direction [12].
Analyze shows that good transportation on transport activity in Europe - Caucasus - Asia transport corridor compared with 2013 in 2014 decrease of good transportation was 850 thousand tonnes (if we take cost of losses for 1 ton ~ 30 $ USA dollars), then forming 25,5 mln USA dollars), in comparison with 2014 (58191 thousand tonnes) in 2015 (52240 thousand tonnes) this indicator (table 1) decrease and was 5,9 mln tonnes (cost of losses 177 mln USA doll.), compared with 2011 in 2015 decline was 1,6 mln tonnes (cost of lost was 48 mln USA dollars) and if compared with 2012 in 2015 decrease was 4,6 mln tonnes (cost of losses 138 mln USA dollars) (table 1). Moreover, if in structure of general good transportation in 2014 transported 58 191 thousand tonnes, but in 2015 year this indicator decreased 5,2 mln tonnes and was 5,2 mln tonnes. In last years in Azerbaijan part
of Europe - Caucasus - Asia transport corridor on transportation by railway transport serious decrease tendencies had observed. For example, if in 2014 19 890 thousand tonnes good transported, but in 2015 this indicator 4,3 mln tonnes decreased and was 15 521 thousand tonnes [3].
If we take cost of losses for 1 ton 30 US dollars, then forming 129 mln US dollars (table 1). In different years also decrease processes are observed. For example, in comparison with 2013 in 2014 decline was 1,4 mln tonnes (cost of loss was 42 mln US dollars), in comparison with 2011 (table 1) in 2015 year decrease volume was 4,6 mln tonnes ( cost of losses was 138 mln US dollars). in transport corridor last years decrease process by transportation of sea transport also had observed. For example, if in 2014 year 9302 thousand tonnes good transported, but in 2015 this indicator decreased 3,2 mln tonnes and was 6067 thousand tonnes.
Moreover, in comparison with 2013 in 2014 year decrease volume was 934 thousand tonnes, if cost of losses for 1 ton ~ 30 dollars, then forming 28 mln dollars, but in comparison with 2011 (table 1) in 2015 decrease volume was 4,2 mln tonnes (cost of losses 126 mln US dollars), to compare with 2012 in 2015 year decrease volume was 4,3 mln tonnes (cost of losses was 129 mln US dollars).
The territory of Azerbaijan as part of Europe - Caucasus - Asia transport corridor last years in transit transportation volume indicators serious decrease was observed. For example, if in 2014 transit transportation volume in this corridor was 12 771 thousand tonnes but in 2015 this indicator decreased 3,2 mln tonnes and was 9494 thousand tonnes. If we take cost of losses for 1 ton 30 US dollars, then forming 96 mln US dollars. If to compare with 2013 in 2014 decrease volume in transit good transportation was 1,9 mln tonnes (cost of losses was 57 mln US dollars ), but to compare with 2013, decrease on transit good transportation in 2014 was 1,9 mln
tonnes (cost of losses was 57 mln US dollars). Moreover, by comparison with 2011 in 2015 decline volume was 6,7 mln tonnes (cost of losses was 201 mln US dollars), compared with 2012 in 2015 decrease volume was 6,2 mln tonnes (cost of losses was 186 mlnUS dollars) (table 1).
In structure of transit good transportation volume of good conveyance if in
2014 was 4502 thousand tonnes, but in
2015 this indicator had decreased 575 thousand tonnes and was 3927 thousand tonnes. If we take cost of for 1 ton 30 US dollar, then forming 17,2 mln US dollars. In comparison with 2013 in 2014 decrease in railway transport's transit transportation was 2,1 mln ton (cost of loss was 63 mln US dollars), but compared with 2011 in 2015 decrease volume was 3,9 mln tonnes
(cost of loss was 117 mln US dollars), as well in 2015 to compare with 2012 decrease volume was 3,4 mln tonnes (cost of losses was 102 mln US dollar).
Last years in structure of transit transportation sea transport's indicators serious changed. For example, if in 2014 transportation volume was 8269 thousand ton, but in 2015 this indicator had decreased 2,7 mln ton and was 5567 thousand tonnes. If we take cost of losses for 1 ton 30 US dollar, then forming 81 mln US dollars. Therefore, by comparison with 2011 in 2015 year decrease on sea transport was 2,79 mln tonnes (cost of losses 83,9 mln US dollar) and compared with 2012 in 2015 decline was 2,75 mln tonnes (cost of losses was 82,7 mln US dollars) (table 1).
Table 1 — Decrease tendencies and cost of losses (in Azerbaijan part) on transportation in Europe - Caucasus - Asia transport corridor (cost of with US dollars). (TRACECA - Great Silk Way Project)*
Comparison with years 2013/2014 2014/2015 2011/2015 2012/2015
decrease on general good trans- 850 ths. tonnes 5,9 mln tonnes 1,6 mln tonnes 4,6 mln tonnes
portation
cost of losses for 1 ton ~ 25,5 mln US 177 mln US 48 mln US 138 mln US
30$ (US dollars) dollars dollars dollars dollars
Including losses in railway 1,4 mln tonnes 4,3 mln tonnes 4,6 mln tonnes 5,8 mln tonnes
transport (tonnes)
cost of losses for 1 tonnes ~ 42 mln US dol- 129 mln US 138 mln US 174 mln US
30 US dollars lars dollars dollars dollars
decrease in sea transport 934 ths. tonnes 3,2 mlntonnes 4,2 mln tonnes 4,3 mln tonnes
(tonnes)
cost of losses for 1 ton ~ 28 mln US dol- 96 mln US dol- 201 mln US 186 mln US
30 $ (US dollars) lars lars dollars dollars
decrease in transit transportation 1,9 mln tonnes 3,2 mlntonnes 6,7 mln tonnes 6,2 mln tonnes
(tonnes)
cost of losses for 1 ton ~ 57 mln US dol- 96 mln US dol- 201 mln US 186 mln US
30 US dollars. lars lars dollars dollars
including decrease in railway 2,1 mln tonnes 575 ths. tonnes 3,9 mln tonnes 3,4 mln tonnes
transport (tonnes)
cost of losses for 1 ton ~ 63 mln US dol- 17,2 mln US 117 mln US 102 mln US
30$ (US dollar) lars dollars dollars dollars
decrease in sea transport - 2,7 mln tonnes 2,79 mln tonnes 2,75 mln tonnes
cost of losses for 1 ton ~ 81 mln US dol- 83,9 mln US 82,7 mln US
30$ (US dollar) lars dollars dollars
* Made by author calculated statistic indicators on www.stat.gov.az/transportcorridors.
In the framework of international transport coridor serious decrease rate on passenger conveyance by railway and sea transport was observed. For example, by comparison with 2014 in 2015 passenger conveyance volume on railway transport had decreased 281 thousand passenger and was 1609 thousand passenger. If we calculate cost of losses for 1 passenger transportation 3 US dollar, then forming 843 thousand US dollars. Moreover, compared with 2011 in 2012 passenger transportation volume had decreased 702 thousand passengers cost of losses was 2,1 mln US dollars). In comparison with 2012 in 2013 passenger conveyance volume had decreased 270 thousand passengers (cost of losses was 810 thousand US dollars), as well as in 2015 year passenger conveyance decreased 1245 thousand passengers (cost of losses was 3,7 mln US dollar) if to compare 2011.
In last years serious decrease rate on passenger conveyance by sea transport in the international transport corridor framework are observed. For instance, if in 2014 via transit corridor conveyanced 15 thousand pasenges, but in 2015 this indicator had decreased 6 thousand passengers and was 9 thousand passengers. If we take cost of losses for 1 passenger 15 US dollar, then forming 90 thousand US dollars. Therefore, if to compare with 2011 in 2013 passenger conveyance by sea transport had been decreased 3 thousand passengers (cost of losses was 45 thousand US dollars), in comparison with 2012 in 2013 passenger conveyance volume had been decreased 3 thousand passengers (cost of losses were 45 thousand US dollars), also compared with 2011 in 2015 decreased volume was 8 thousand passengers (cost of losses were 120 thousand US dollars).
«Strategic Roadmap» about development of logistics and trade in Azerbaijan Republic adopted by decree of Prezident of Azerbaijan Republic in 6 december 2016. The latest years economic development which is based on open market and liberal trade are considering main economic
growth model. Moreover, report was published about international national economy in the world by World Bank shows that share of export of products and services in GDP if to compare with 1995 increased from 22 % (after influence of economic crisis) to 29,5 % in 2015. The main reasons of this growth considering strengthening middle class in developing countries.
In the annual report of «Azerbaijan Railway» JSC presented that 23 % transported goods (3,9 mln tonnes) belong to transit goods. We must note that in comparison with neighbouring Georgia 71 % transported goods belongs to transit goods. Moreover, last years transit good transportation volume by sea transport was 5,6 mln tonnes (59 %) in Azerbaijan Republic. Analysis shows that at the present time more than 50 % sea transport ships (vessels) completed theirs exploitation period (25 year) in Azerbaijan Republic. From this point of view renovation of marine fleet is necessary in modern economiuc comdition. We must note that international companies to get for rent ships which there are exploitation period only to 15 year and also according to international maritime conception demand in the world. Different model of ships which are finished their exploitation period don't to allow by international maritime organization to take part in freight transportation in the world water space. Also don't to insure foreign insurance companies old ships. One of the reason decreasing of transportation volume in international transit project is considering limited transporttions of containers. In new adopted «Strategic Roadmap about development of logistics and trade» of Azerbaijan) had showed that, main priority of this document to change Azerbaijan attractive country in region by transit point of view.
Main directions increasing effectiveness of international transport corridors via Azerbaijan Republic
In statistic report of about goods trade of the United Nations showed that only in 2015 year via «East-West»
transport corridor 150 mln tonnes transit goods had been transported. In the framework of this transport corridor via Azerbaijan territory in 2015 9,5 mln tonnes transit goods were transported [4]. Moreover, in via «North-South» corridor annual trade turnover between Russia and Iran countries on Caspian Sea were 4 mln tonnes, but with Iran and Black Sea region countries annual trade turnover were 2,3 mln tonnes. Trade volume of between Middle Asia countries and Black sea region countries with «East-West» transport corridor in 2015 was 9,9 mln tonnes and till 2020 prognosis shows that this indicator will increase to 13,8 mln tonnes. Therefore, in 2015 via «East-West» transport corridor trade volume between Middle Asia countries and European countries were 38,8 mln tonnes. Prognosis shows that till 2020 this indicaor will increase to 56,8 mln tonnes. In the direction of «East-West» transport corridor trade turnover volume between China and European countries in 2015 were 102 mln tons. Prognosis shows that till 2020 this indicator will be increase to 118,7 mln tonnes. We must note that «TRACECA» international transport corridor up to now undeveloped route between China and European countries [4]. The main reason low level of freight transportation via «TRACECA» transport route considers that good sender companies and countries every time to search very cheap and speedly alternative routes. But to take into account that to exist very correct optimization directions in this corridor [5].
Moreover, construction of «Baku -Tbilisi - Kars» railway line and new Baku Marine Port complex, also organization free economic trade zone are considering very important economic measures. Therefore, development activity of sea transport in the framework transit transport corridors such as «East-West», «North-South» and «South-West» are very necessary. From this point of view modernization of maritime fleet of Azerbaijan, for this purpose buying new different types of ships for to
meet international requirements of companies are very actual problems». «East-West» transport corridor which is pass through Azerbaijan territory shortest transport route between Europe and Asia continent [6].
Practice of East European countries shows that in some countries such as Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latviya economic revenues achived by railway transport in transit good transportation to organize 30-35 % of GDP [7].
«Baku - Tbilisi - Kars» international railway line starting from China by route «China - Kazakhstan - Caspian Sea -Azerbaijan - Georgia - Turkey» will provide transportation goods direct to European countries and back directions. Annual turnover between China and European countries reached approximately 600-650 bln US dollars. These processes will be accelerate quality of transport transit and tourism services, also direct influence to development of non-oil sector [8].
We must note that 50 % transportation of goods are realizing by railway transport in «East-West» international transport corridor. From this point of view role of «Baku - Tbilisi - Kars» railway line in next years will be increased. After exploitation «Baku - Tbilisi - Kars» railway line from China country through Kazakhstan - Caspian Sea - Azerbaijan -Georgia - Turkey» routs will be transporting goods direct to European countries. Moreover, necessary consideration annual trade turnover between China and European countries which consist of 600-650 bln USA dollars [9].
Presented reports by international experts on international transport transit projects shows that till 2020 year trade turnover between China and European Union's countries will be increasing to 800 bln USA dollars. 10 % general trade turnover with cost of 80 bln USA dollars will transported by Trans-Caspian transport route. General realized measures will influence to economic development of participant countries situated in Trans-Caspian
transport route. Last years by Armenia which had territorial problems with of Azerbaijan Republic as well realized serious measures for development of new rival transport transit route [10]. For example, construction of new railway line between Iranian Islamic Republic and Armenia considers alternative route for «Baku - Tbilisi -Kars» railway line. Length of railway route in territory of Armenia consist of 420 km, but in Iran territory consist of 80 km. Cost of project consist of 35 bln US dollars. Ian-Armenian railway construction project had accepted in 7 august 2014 by Armenian government. This is project will be complete in 2022 and annual cargo transportation volume will reach to 25 mln tonnes.This is project prepared by Construction and Communication International Company of China (CCIC) [11]. But investigation shows that for to construct this railway line only needs 5-7 years. We must note that between Iran and Armenia Republic trade turnover consist of only annual 300-350 mln US dollars and for realization this project not enough financial resources till now. From this point of view, if even after realization this project not enough volume of goods for find transportation in this direction between two countries. This is fact prove that compe-titeveness of project is very noneffective in modern economic condition [16].
In modern economic situation «Baku -Tbilisi - Kars» railway project will provide transportation between Caspian Sea countries with Georgia and Turkey. In next years goods of Azerbaijan Republic and Middle Asian countries (mainly oil and oil gas product) will be delivery to European markets by Bosporus strait. Also European and Mediterranean sea countries with this railway route will to delivery goods to Asian countries. «Baku - Tbilisi - Kars» railway transport corridor will play main role transportation of goods to European Union's countries. In next years transportation goods via territory of Russia considers non effective for China. By political point
of view moreover, delivery speed and economic cost of transportation also non appropriate for China. In modern economic condition and in modern political situation China and Russia in different regions of world to connect economic interests against USA. «Baku - Tbilisi - Kars» railway line to remove influence of Russia direct from «New Silk Way» project.
We must note that, from China direct to European countries main good transportation volume are realizing by Transsibir (through Russian territory) transit line. Main reason of this process considers definition low tariffs for transportation by Russian territory. This is factor principial advantage if to compare Russian transportation expences with to Azerbaijan and Turkey [16].
By «Baku - Tbilisi - Kars» international transit railway line for transportation are planning annual 17 mln tonnes goods. We must note that only if in 2012 had transported 20 mln tonnes goods, but in 2013 18 mln tonnes goods had transported by Georgian Republic's railway transport. Increasing export potential of different economic branches of Azerbaijan and Georgian Republic will to support solution of transit problems betweeen two countries. «Baku - Tbilisi - Kars» railway line is very accessible for transportation oil and different oil products from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, as well as from Turkmenistan Republic to European countries. From this point of view Azerbaijan government financed share of construction of Ceorgian Republic's railway lines in «Baku - Tbilisi -Kars» railway transport project and had stimulated cargo tariffs of transportation for regional countries. We must note that realization «Baku - Tbilisi - Kars» railway project non appropriate till now by economic interest of Iranian Islamic Republic. Because, Iran direct control by customs duties of transit transportation between Turkey and Central Asian countries.After realization «Baku - Tbilisi - Kars» railway project incomes achved from transit transportation of Iran serious decreased [2].
By Azerbaijan Republic for development and to take part in other transport corridors such as «North-South» and «South-West» are very important directions for strengthen economic position our state in between regional countries.
For effective realization «North-South» project must be to construct new railway track from Astara city of Azerbaijan Republic to Anzali city of Islamic Iranian Republic. Russia always last years support this project. Because, this project for strengthen interstate relations and for ensuring economic interests in region plays main role by economic point of view of Russia.
In first stage will convey annual 6 mln tonnes via «North-South» new transit route. Next stages transportation volume will increase to 15-20 mln tonnes. New corridor will support decrease of delivery time and economize general expenses India and other countries in region. We must note that from India delivery of goods to European countriea by sea transport to require minimum 40 day. Moreover, Azerbaijan Republic has important geographical position in «North-South» international transport corridor. By this transport corridor goods from India via Azerbaijan territory may be deliveried to direct Russian territory and other different European countries [1].
Non possibility access of sea transpot companies of border countries with Caspian sea to world ocean negative influence to transit transportation. Only connection with world oceans are realizing by Volga-Don channel via Russian territory. But this channel was frozen in winter period and also different state border crossings as well difficult navigation in a lot of straits are the main barriers in this directions. Last years Iran government continues construction new water channel from Caspian Sea to Persian Gulf. After realization this project sea transport companies of Iran and Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan easily will to enter by new channel via Persian Gulf to world ocean.
In 2017 year in Baku city (Azerbaijan Republic) between Azerbaijan Republic and Iran, Georgia, Poland, Ukraine head of railway organizations organized business meeting for creation new transport route. In meeting discussed advantages and perspectives of «South-West» transport route. India (Pakistan) - Persian Gulf -Iran - Azerbaijan - Georgia - Ukraine -Poland and other European countries are the main transit countries in this project. Next years will join to this project Southern-Western (Eastern) Asian countries. Transportation processes in «South-West» transport corridor will realize in 15 days period.
Conclusion
In general for effective usage by transport transit potential of Azerbaijan Republic in next years in «TRACECA», «North-South», «South-West» and other transport transit projects must be realizing following measures:
- creation with regional countries general transit service markets and regulation national domestic and foreign economic safety by support transport sector;
- to stimulate and to support activity of national transport companies in international transit transportation projects;
- to create new logistic and trade centers in different cities (especially near the Caspian sea) of Azerbaijan Republic;
- creation private transport companies in railway, air and sea transport segments for increasing activity in international transport markets;
- to decrease time for import-export operation and transit transportation and financial expenses, improvement of border crossing prosesses, creation new transit transport infrastructures;
- to strengthen transportation relations with European Union countries, to achive jointly regulation of complex tariff rates with railway transport companies of regonal countries such as Georgia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Iran, Turkey and etc.
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А. Н. Кузьминов, Н. А. Яровой, В. М. Джуха
МОДИФИЦИРОВАННАЯ МОДЕЛЬ ОЦЕНКИ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ ОТРАСЛЕВОЙ СТРУКТУРЫ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЙ1
Аннотация
В статье рассматривается новый полупараметрический подход к моделированию структурной оптимизации предприятий выделенной отрасли, который позволяет преодолевать существующие в настоящее время ограничения «технического» моделирования. Общепризнана проблема, что в условиях ограниченности информации определение инварианта оптимального масштаба, который может быть рассчитан в контексте наиболее эффективного распределения входного ресурса, оцениваемого, например, в границах рентабельности производства, крайне ограничено. Обосновывается применение инструментария ценозов, который позволяет оценивать систему по ограниченному числу данных и обеспечивает когнитивное представление наиболее оптимальной реконфигурации ее элементов.
Ключевые слова
Эконометрическое моделирование, экономический ценоз, отраслевая структура, устойчивость, экономическая эффективность.
1 Статья подготовлена при финансовой поддержке РФФИ, грант № 18-010-01095 «Междисциплинарный подход к исследованию крупномасштабных экономических систем на основе теории ценозов».
