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2Таким чином, вивчення проблем конкуренто-спроможносп в перебiгу управлшня асортиментом або аналiзу товарного портфеля тдтверджуе право-мiрнiсть висунуто! гшотези про доцiльнiсть розг-ляду конкурентоспроможносп асортименту в яко-стi одного з критерпв ефективностi асортиментно! полгшки пiдприeмств роздрГбно! торгiвлi. Спрямо-ванють змiни вказаного критерш в бж пiдвищення в динамiцi вiдповiдатиме загальнш метi зростання ефективностi реалГзаци розроблено! асортиментно! полiтики.
Незважаючи на те, що управлiння асортиментом - важлива проблема, яка постае перед будь-яким шдприемством, подходи до оцшки якостi асортиментно! пропозици, як1 представленi в економь чнш лiтературi, характеризуються вiдсутнiстю сис-темносп i в основному виражаються в окремих ро-зрiзнених коефiцiентах. Це обумовлюе необхiднiсть розробки цiлiсно! системи показнишв оцiнки ефективностi асортиментно! полгшки, що вiдповiдатиме обраним критерiям ефективносп i дозволить виявляти сильнi та слабш сторони в реа-лiзацi! асортиментно! полiтики та своечасно прий-мати коректуючи заходи.
У зв'язку з тим, що споживча цiннiсть асортименту мае характеризувати ефективнiсть асортиментно! полгшки з точки зору покупця, то найбшьш загальним показником !! усшшносл е показник те-мтв зростання товарообороту Г його фГзичного об-сягу. Динашка товарообороту в цшому сввдчить
про змiни в обсязi реалiзованого попиту, тому якщо вона мае позитивний характер, то за шших рiвних умов розроблена асортиментна полгтика забезпечуе зростання рiвня задоволеного попиту.
Список лiтератури
1. Катаев А. В. Адмшстрування товарно! поль тики органiзацiï: методи диференцiацiï асортименту товарiв / А. В. Катаев // Маркетинг роздабно! торпвлг - 2013. - № 3. - С. 162-178.
2. Кривуля П. В. Удосконалення планування товарного асортименту пре- дметiв споживання: ав-тореф. дис. ... канд. екон. наук : спец. : 08.06.01 / П. В. Кривуля ; Схвдноукрашський нац. ун-т iм. В. Даля. - Луганськ, 2003. - 22 с.
3. Шгунова О. В. Стратег комерцшно! дгяль-носп пiдприемства роздрiбно! торгiвлi / О. В. Шгунова, О. Г. Ашськова - Москва: Маркетинг, 2002. -117 с.
4. Троян А. В. Особливосп асортиментно! политики шдприемства в сучасних умовах господарю-вання [Електронний ресурс] / А. В. Троян // Ефек-тивна економжа. - 2014. - №1 - Режим доступу : http://www.economy.nayka.com.ua/?op=1&z=2708.
5. Чимирис О. Товарний асортимент та яшсть прибутк1в: взаемозв'язок та взаемозалежшсть / О. Чимирис // Торпвля i ринок Укра!ни. - 2002. - Вип. 13. - Т. 2. - С. 186-192.
INVESTMENT DEVELOPMENT IN THE METALLURGICAL INDUSTRY PAVLODAR REGION
REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN
Kazizova G.S.
Innovative University of Eurasia (Pavlodar, Kazakhstan), PhD, Associate Professor of 'Economics and Management' Department
ABSTRACT
This article discusses the development trends of the investment policy of Kazakhstan in the field of metallurgy development. Based on a review of the statistical data on the current development of the metallurgical industry of Pavlodar region of Kazakhstan are indicators for the implementation of the country's industrialization.
Keywords: manufacturing industry, metallurgical industry, investment policy, industrialization industry.
The industrialization of the country, aimed at a comprehensive productivity improvements in the economy will be the development of traditional industries with the subsequent transition of primary production to higher conversion stages and development sectors, based on the subsoil users demand, national companies and the state: metallurgy, mechanical engineering, building industry, defense industry, pharmaceuticals.
The metallurgical industry is a strategic sector of the economy, the role of which is to ensure the production of raw materials of high-tech end products in the fields of engineering, construction, aviation, aerospace and defense industries. Today, the mining and metallurgical industry of Kazakhstan is focused on the export of raw materials and primary metals.
Consider a brief review of the metallurgical industry of the Pavlodar region. Metallurgical complex of the region produces about half of the volume of industrial production and dominates the economy of the Pavlodar region.
In the first half of 2016 in Pavlodar region the volume of production of metallurgical industry amounted to KZT 311 bln, which is more than the corresponding period of 2015 by 6.3%, 53.6% of it is necessary for the production of steel products, 46.2%. The production of basic precious and non-ferrous metals, 0.2% - for metal casting (Figure 1) [1].
0.2%
□ferrous metallurgy □non-ferrous metallurgy □ metal casting
Figure 1.
The structure of the volume ofproduction of metallurgical industry of Pavlodar region in January-June 2016
The total volume of industrial production the share of metallurgical industry occupies 49.8% in the processing industry - 72.5%. In the production of steel products among regions of Kazakhstan Pavlodar region
takes the third position after the Karaganda and East Kazakhstan regions, it accounts for 20.2% of the national volume of Kazakhstan (Figure 2) [1].
Almaty city Akmola Astana city 1% 2%
5% " ^
Aktyubinsk 5% Almaty 0%
Karaganda
33%
Pavlodar 20%
Kostanay 1%
Kyzylorda 2%
SKR
2%
Figure 2.
Shares regions of Kazakhstan in the amount of production in metallurgical industry in January-August 2016
The steel industry of Pavlodar region represented by large enterprises of ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, namely, Aksu Ferro-alloy plant branch of JSC 'TNK' Kazchrome', Pavlodar branch of 'Casting' LLP,
'KSP Steel' LLP, JSC 'Aluminium of Kazakhstan', JSC 'Kazakhstan Electrolysis Plant', JSC 'Maikainzoloto' (Table 1).
Table 1
Major industrial enterprises of metallurgical industry of Pavlodar region
The main company The main activity of manufactured products
JSC 'Kazakhstan Aluminum' Alumina, metal gallium, aluminum sulphate, thermal and electrical energy, refractory clay, limestone
JSC 'Kazakhstan Electrolysis Plant' Production of aluminum ingots and bullion
Aksu Ferroalloy Plant subsidiary of JSC 'TNK' Kazchrome' High-silicon ferrosilicon, high-carbon ferrochrome, ferrosilicochrome, ferro-silikomarganets
Pavlodar branch of LLP 'KSP Steel' Steel seamless tubes for the oil and gas industry of various diameters, couplings for pipes
LLP 'Ritam - Pavlodar' Metalworking, manufacture of non-standard equipment
LLP 'Technological lines' Production of iron and steel castings
LLP 'Repair and Foundry' Release of grinding balls, Foundry products from ferrous metals
Pavlodar branch of LLP 'Casting' Rolled steel balls, valves, grinding rods, billets are continuously cast square for further rolling on the implementation of
Note - Compiled by source [4]
And in recent years on the development of the metallurgical industry of Pavlodar region there is a tendency to increase (Table 2).
Table 2
The index of physical volume of production in metallurgical industry of Pavlodar region for 2013-2015
2016 January - June
Name 2013 2014 2015
Metallurgical complex of Pavlodar region, total 96.6 97.2 105.5 108.3
including:
- ferrous metallurgy 93.5 102.1 104.7 105.5
- manufacture of basic precious and non-ferrous metals 103.4 87.3 107.3 107.4
- metal castings 100.9 97.0 95.4 92.9
- fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 99.3 99.3 125.9 100.7
Note - Compiled by source [1]
According to Table 2 we can see the moderate growth of metallurgical complex of the region. Namely, in 2015, IPV (Index of Physical Volume) production in industry increased by 8.3 percentage points. While in 2013-2014 a decrease in IPV in the field of
Production of certain products in the industry
metallurgy, due to falling prices on the world market of aluminum. For a more detailed study we will consider changes in production volumes in the field of metallurgy in kind (Table 3).
Table 3
of Pavlodar ^ region for 2013-2015 years in kind
2016 January - June
Name 2013 2014 2015
Ferroalloys, tones 1300269 1322019 1318058 635783
Ferrochrome, tones 960532 977 354 985672 488677
Ferrosilicomanganese, tones 203 986 200 802 197456 109471
Gold and unprocessed or semi-finished powder, kilo- 375 295 231 92
gram
Silver or unprocessed and semi powder, kilogram 1110 1505 1460 1142
Aluminum unwrought; Aluminum oxide, tones 1840159 1626849 1667472 868451
Refined copper and copper alloys, unprocessed; a copper-based master alloy, tones - 962 2836 734
Unrefined Steel, tones 393013 350016 313557 136939
Unalloyed steel in ingots or other primary forms and semi-finished carbon steel (unalloyed), tones 393013 350016 313557 136939
Note - Compiled by source [1]
According to Table 3, one can observe a decrease in 2015 in almost all of the types of products of metallurgical industry field. For a more complete understanding of the volume of production, we consider the
production in terms of value. Where it is clear that increased by 4.4% in 2015 compared to 2014 year, production in the steel industry, which in total amounted to KZT 18,562,689 thsd (Table 4).
Table 4
The volume of production in metallurgical industry of Pavlodar region for 2013-2015 years ^ in value terms
Name 2013 2014 2015 2016 January - June
KZT thsd % KZT thsd % KZT thsd %
Metallurgical industry, total 369388087 100 421356204 100 439918893 100 310995798
- production of iron and steel products, thousand tinges 233 034 991 63.1 268 610 583 63.7 252 282 407 57.3 166 578 434
- manufacture of basic precious and non-ferrous metals, thousand tinges 135 346 881 36,6 151 917 437 36,0 186 270 540 42.3 143 777 186
- metal castings, thousand tinges 1 006 215 0.3 828 184 0.2 1 365 946 0.3 640178
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, thousand tinges 23 022 071 25 177 551 24 414 000 15477813
Note - Compiled by source [1]
According to Table 4, it can be seen that in 2015, in the specific gravity of the volume of production in the field of steel has decreased in comparison with the year 2014 by 6.4 percentage points. This decline in production is due to a decrease in exports of ferrous scrap. And from August 1, 2016 came into force the Order of the Minister for Investment and Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Zh.M. Kasymbek 'On a ban on the export from the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan and waste ferrous metals scrap'.
In the Republic of Kazakhstan investments in fixed assets amounted to KZT 3 030.8 bln in January-June 2016, which is 8.5% more than the same period in 2015 [3]. Today the manufacturing sector of Kazakhstan's economy - in the area of special attention of foreign investors, more than 26% of total investments in
fixed capital industry in January-June 2016 represented foreign investments.
The volume of investments in the manufacturing industry in the region in January-June 2016 increased by 21.7% compared with January-June 2015. The share of investment in manufacturing industry in total investment in fixed assets increased by 1.9 percentage points to 12.7%.
In the first half of 2016 the amount of foreign investment (without credits of foreign banks) grew by KZT 32 bln a year and that is 34% of the total growth of investment in industry in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The bulk of foreign investment in the manufacturing industry is concentrated Pavlodar region - more than 79% of the accounts for the region (Table 5) [2].
Table 5
Borrowed fixed investment manufacturing regions of Kazakhstan
Cities and regions January - June 2015 January - June 2016 Rate of increase, %
KZT mln % KZT mln %
The Republic of Kazakhstan 69582.5 100 101311.8 100 45.6
Pavlodar region 65875.4 94.7 80183.3 79.1 21.7
East- kazakhstan region 604.4 0.9 14479.8 14.3 2295.6
Zhambyl region 467.6 0.7 4338.6 4.3 827.8
South- kazakhstan region - - 1054.4 1.0 -
Mangistau region 1024.9 1.5 702.4 0.7 -31.5
Karaganda region - - 553.3 0.5 -
Akmola region 25.0 0.0 - - -
Almaty region 1186.8 1.7 - - -
Atyrau region 67.2 0.1 - - -
Kyzylorda region 26.5 0.0 - - -
North-kazakhstan region 264.6 0.4 - - -
Astana city 40.2 0.1 - - -
Aktyubinsk region - - - - -
West- kazakhstan region - - - - -
Kostanay region - - - - -
Almaty city - - - - -
Note - Compiled by source [1], [2]
The main inflow of investments of foreign investors in the manufacturing sector of Kazakhstan started
in 2013 - it was then that Pavlodar region began to actively attract funds from foreign investors in the development of the economy (Figure 3).
150 100 50 0
/
□ The Republic of Kazakhstan □ Pavlodar region
/
№
:v
y
N
»
:v
/
Figure 3. The dynamics of foreign investment in fixed assets in the manufacturing industry in the Republic of
Kazakhstan and Pavlodar region, KZT bln
Given the above data, this year, the manufacturing industry of Kazakhstan shows record growth investments. During the first half of 2016 the volume of investments in fixed assets of manufacturing enterprises amounted to KZT 384 bln, KZT 94 bln higher than it
was a year earlier. This is the biggest indicator of the level of growth over the past 7 years, since 2009. The region accounts for more than 30% of all investment in the industry in January-June 2016 (Table 6).
Table 6
Cities and regions January - June 2015 January - June 2016 Rate of increase, in %
KZT mln in % KZT mln in %
The Republic of Kazakhstan 289184.6 100 383573.6 100 32.6
Pavlodar region 100372.8 34.7 116137.8 30.3 15.7
East- kazakhstan region 16400.3 5.7 26400.2 6.9 61.0
Zhambyl region 6085.2 2.1 23385.8 6.1 284.3
South- kazakhstan region 17115.6 5.9 18538.9 4.8 8.3
Mangistau region 2337.5 0.8 3436.7 0.9 47.0
Karaganda region 57537.7 19.9 28896.4 7.5 -49.8
Akmola region 7560.4 2.6 9779.2 2.5 29.3
Almaty region 14449.0 5,0 14772.3 3.9 2.2
Atyrau region 16823.2 5.8 87763.1 22.9 421.7
Kyzylorda region 4811.7 1.7 3682.5 1.0 -23.5
North-kazakhstan region 3069.0 1.1 1913.6 0.5 -37.6
Astana city 5532.2 1.9 10775.3 2.8 94.8
Aktyubinsk region 15611.2 5.4 16541.8 4.3 6.0
West- kazakhstan region 6120.7 2.1 7194.0 1.9 17.5
Kostanay region 7228.5 2.5 2921.5 0.8 -59.6
Almaty city 8129.7 2.8 11434.4 3.0 40.6
Note - Compiled by source [1], [2]
The bulk of investments in the manufacturing industry of Pavlodar region is to modernize fixed assets of metallurgical enterprises. The region is among the three pillars of the metallurgical industry of Kazakhstan - the region provides 21% of total production in the sector. July 1, 2016 was held national teleconference where the head of state gave a start key 8 RK projects. Among them, 2 projects were introduced in the Pavlodar region. By July 2016 under the 'State program of industrial-innovative development' (SPIID - state program of industrial-innovative development) in Pavlodar region have been implemented 4 projects for total cost KZT 17.8 bln.
The melting shop №1 of Aksu Ferroalloy Plant -branch of JSC 'TNK' Kazchrome' (as part of the Eurasian Group (ERG) after the overhaul commissioned furnace unit #15 Annual furnace performance. About 50 thousand tons of high-carbon ferrochrome investment sum to overhaul the unit was about KZT 1.4 bln. Reconstruction began in July 2016 in order to continue the large-scale program of modernization and improvement of the main production facilities of the enterprise at JSC 'Kazakhstan electrolysis plant' in 2016 started up a third of all power production of aluminum 125.0 thousand tons per year.
On the territory of SEZ 'Pavlodar' JSC 'National Atomic Company' Kazatomprom 'plans in cooperation
with JSC' Caustic 'to implement a number of investment projects for the production of polycrystalline silicon, phosphorus trichloride, ferric chloride, polyvinyl chloride, phosphorus pentasulfide, aluminum oxychlo-ride, flotation reagents, mineral salt deposits inhibitors, chloroparaffins, hydrogen peroxide [5].
Strategic direction is also the transition to deep processing of raw materials and production of finished products. As aluminum is a cable, foil, profiles, vintage alloys.
References
1. Статистические данные. Режим доступа: http://www.stat. gov.kz/
2. Комитета статистики Министерства национальной экономики Республики Казахстан. Режим доступа: http://www.energyprom.kz/ru/a/reviews/
3. Комитет по статистике Министерства национальной экономики РК. Официальный сайт. Режим доступа: http://economY.gov.kz/ru/
4. Программа развития территории Павлодарской области на 2016-2020 годы (Утверждена решением сессии Павлодарского областного мас-лихата (XLVI сессия, V созыв) от 10 декабря 2015 года № 398/46)
5. Телемост: «Отчет Правительства о работе по реализации ГПФИИР». Режим доступа: http://khabar.kz/ru/agency/aktualno/item/2751 0-telemost-otchet-pravitelstva-o-rabote-po-realizatsii-gpfiir
Гончаренко Д.В.
магистрант Картамышева К.В. магистрант
Есипова О.В.
кандидат экономических наук, доцент, кафедра экономики, Институт экономики и управления Самарский национальный исследовательский университет им.
академика С. П. Королева, г. Самара
МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ВВП РФ И КАЗАХСТАНА
MODELING AND FORECASTING GDP OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND KAZAKHSTAN
Goncharenko D. V.
undergraduate; Kartamysheva K. V., undergraduate; Esipova O. V.,
Ph.D of Economic, associate Professor, Department of Economics, Institute of Economics and management, Samara national research University named after academician S. P. Korolev, Samara
АННОТАЦИЯ
В данной работе рассмотрены основные понятия экономического цикла. На основе изложенного теоретического материала, проведен анализ валового внутреннего продукта РФ и Казахстана. По результатам анализа построены регрессионные модели и интервальный прогноз, рассчитаны оценки адекватности. ABSTRACT
In this paper, the basic concepts of the economic cycle. Based on the theoretical material, analysis of the gross domestic product of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. According to the analysis of the constructed regression model and interval forecast, calculated valuation of adequacy.
Ключевые слова: макроэкономика, моделирование, прогнозирование, ВВП, экономические циклы. Keywords: macroeconomics, modeling, forecasting, GDP, economic cycles.
Нестабильность экономических процессов в переходной к рынку российской экономике, включая ее кризисные состояния, делают актуальным выявление закономерных и случайных явлений в экономической динамике нашей страны. Проведение успешной экономической политики напрямую зависит от достоверности прогноза основных макроэкономических показателей.
Объектом исследования является динамика временных рядов основных макроэкономических показателей РФ и Казахстана. Методом исследования выступает построение экономико-математических моделей, позволяющих прогнозировать, а так же выявлять и анализировать циклические колебания.
Целью работы является исследование циклической динамики и сравнительный анализ валового внутреннего продукта России и Казахстана.
Экономический цикл - это процесс колебательного движения уровня производства, объема инвестиций, занятости и дохода, в результате которого происходит расширение или сжатие деловой активности в различных секторах экономики.
Современная экономическая наука насчитывает большое количество видов циклов. В 30-е гг. 20 века известный австрийский и американский ученый Й. Шумпетер [8], анализируя циклы, классифицировал их и выделил 4 основных вида цикли-
