Научная статья на тему 'International tourist arrivals: trends and forecasts'

International tourist arrivals: trends and forecasts Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

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Ключевые слова
ТУРИЗМ / TOURISM / ТЕНДЕНЦИЯ / TREND / ТУРИСТСКИЕ ПРИБЫТИЯ / TOURIST ARRIVALS / РЕГИОН / REGION / ТЕМП РОСТА / GROWTH RATE / ПРОГНОЗ / FORECAST

Аннотация научной статьи по экономике и бизнесу, автор научной работы — Novruzova Fizza, Sultanli Saida

In the article notes the growth of the impact of tourism on the economics of various countries. We are review the growth rate of international tourist arrivals in the regions of the world and number of arrivals in last years. Marked the trends of development of international tourism and forecast for tourist arrivals by 2030.

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Текст научной работы на тему «International tourist arrivals: trends and forecasts»

where y - the average value of dependent variables 7; Jf - the average value of independent variables X. Total losses of electric power are an important index of the electric power complex innovation development. Reduction of electric power losses can be achieved by means of renewal of the electric power complex capital fund, by means of strengthening of the scientific-research vase inside the country and joining to international research organizations involved into innovation developments in the scope of electric power engineering.

To achieve a new way of electric power production in this country, it is proposed to develop renewable energy sources, which, in the long run, can compensate for lack of conventional energy sources and reduce the level of contaminant emissions in the atmosphere in course of generating electric and heat power.

Acquisition of renewable resources will not require significant expenses for excavation, transportation and storage, or for further disposal, like in a case with burying wastes of thermal and nuclear power plants, for instance.

To ensure that economic growth would not lead to increased carbon dioxide emissions, one has to implement innovation energy-saving technologies in the most active way.

To achieve high results in reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, one has, simultaneously with innovation energy-saving and purging technologies, to be involved into diversification of power-generating facilities due to wide-scale implementation of renewable power resources following the principles of «green» economy.

Thus, the economic activity growth is the factor which exerts the biggest influence on increasing carbon dioxide emissions at thermal power plants.

So, the analysis of indexes of the electric power complex innovation development will be necessary in order to determine the level of adherence to the «green» economy and aiming at their innovation development.

References

1. Bondarenko N. Ye. Theoretical basics of the concept of innovation development of economy // Messenger of Altai Academy of Economics and Law // [Electronic resource]. Access: http://journal-aael.intelbi.ru/main/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/KE.-E0HgapeHK0.pdf

2. Krasnova N. A. Innovations in various schools' economic theories // Economy and management of innovation technologies, 2013. № 12. [Electronic resource]. Access: http://ekonomika.snauka.ru/2013 / 12/3476.

3. Kuzyk B. N., Yakovets Yu. V. Russia - 2050: The strategy of an innovation breakthrough. The second enlarged version. Moscow: Economy, 2005. 636 p.

4. Anishchik V. M., Rusetsky A. V. Innovation activity and scientific and engineering development: a study guide / edited by N. K. Tolochko. Minsk: Publishing centre of Belarus State University, 2005. 151 p.

International tourist arrivals: trends and forecasts Novruzova F.1, Sultanli S.2 (Republic of Azerbaijan) Международные туристские прибытия: тенденции и прогнозы Новрузова Ф. М.1, Султанлы С. И.2 (Азербайджанская Республика)

'Новрузова ФиззаМахмуд гызы /Novruzova Fizza - кандидат физико-математических наук, доцент; 2Султанлы Саида Исмет гызы / Sultanli Saida - доктор философии по географии, старший преподаватель, кафедра охраны и экономики окружающей среды, Азербайджанский государственный экономический университет, г. Баку, Азербайджанская Республика

Abstract: in the article notes the growth of the impact of tourism on the economics of various countries. We are review the growth rate of international tourist arrivals in the regions of the world and number of arrivals in last years. Marked the trends ofdevelopment of international tourism andforecastfor tourist arrivals by 2030. Аннотация: в статье отмечается рост влияния туризма на экономику различных стран. Показаны темпы роста международных туристских прибытий в регионах мира и показатели прибытий за последние годы. Показаны тенденции развития международного туризма и прогнозы по туристским прибытиям к 2030 году.

Keywords: tourism, trend, tourist arrivals, region, growth rate, forecast.

Ключевые слова: туризм, тенденция, туристские прибытия, регион, темп роста, прогноз.

Tourism is one of the complex industries of world and national economy in developed and developing countries. Tourism provides the best alternative for economics the development of many countries. The

positive effects of tourism on a country's economics include different segments of the population for services. Its effective operation, in addition, contributes to the diversity of economics.

Now Azerbaijan the task of diversify and the development of new non-oil sectors of the economics. The Azerbaijan's economics tourism revenues is do not exceed 4.5 %. Tourism industry is one of the most promising among them and lays good infrastructure foundation for its. The has built a hotels, new private health centers and centers of recreation and entertainment, system of training qualified personnel, improved transport infrastructure and tourists service, required effective solutions by government.

In spite of the global economics crisis, the scope of international tourism shows strong growth. In 2015, the number of international tourist arrivals increased by 4.4 % over the year and reached 1 billion 184 million (fig. 1).

Fig. 1. International tourist arrivals: 2005-2015 (million) [2]

The growth rate of international arrivals 2005-2014 showed the best indicators in regions Asia-Pacific (6.2 %) and Africa-Middle East (5.2 %) [1]. In Europe, the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions, growth was about 5 % in 2015. In Europe reached 609 million arrivals: Central and Eastern Europe (+6 %), Northern Europe (+6 %), Southern Mediterranean Europe (+5 %) and Western Europe (+4 %). In 2015 in Africa the number of arrivals decreased by 2.9 % due to regional conflicts.

According to experts of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), this trend will continue, and growth rate could reach 4.5 % in 2016. By region, growth will be stronger in Asia-the Pacific and the Americas: +4 % to +5 %, in Europe +3.5 % to +4.5 %. Now the following trends are actual for the development of international tourism:

1. Increase of the number of tourists in the world.

2. Unequal allocation in different regions of the world and the lead keeps Europe (fig. 2).

Fig. 2. International tourist arrivals in regions of the world in 2015 [2]

Its trends are associated with sharp currency fluctuations, natural disasters in various regions, the drop in oil prices and other reasons. Because the tourist destinations in regions of the world were different and tourist safety issues in the country have become essential for governments and travel organizers.

According to UNWTO data [3], the number of international tourist arrivals worldwide will increase about 3.3 % a year over the period 2010-2030 or by some 43 million a year, compared with an average increase of 28 million a year during the period 1995-2010. At the forecasted rate of growth, international tourist arrivals in the world are expected to reach 1400 million by 2020 and 1800 million tourists by 2030 (fig. 3).

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Fig. 3. International tourist arrivals (million): trend and forecast 2016-2030

Global revenues from international tourism is growing steadily also and reached of 1.159 trillion dollars in 2015. In the report of the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) marked that revenue from tourism in Azerbaijan amounted to about 2.5 billion dollars in 2015. WTTC experts predict that arrivals of foreign tourists will increase by 6.4 % in 2016 compared to 2015 and the number of tourists to reach 2.67 million. Identification of trends in this sphere and the transformation of the tourism industry in the post-oil period - this is an important task for the economics.

References

1. UN World Tourism Organization. [Electronic resource]. Access: URL: http://media.unwto.org/press-release/2016-01-18/international-tourist-arrivals-4-reach-record- 12-billion-2015.

2. UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. [Electronic resource]. Access: URL: http://cf.cdn.unwto.org/ sites/all/files/pdf/unwto_barom16_02_march_excerpt.pdf.

3. UNWTO Tourism highlights 2015 edition. [Electronic resource]. Access: URL: http://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284416899.

Formation of information management system at companies Abuzyarova M. (Russian Federation) Формирование информационной системы управления на предприятиях Абузярова М. И. (Российская Федерация)

АбузяроваМария Ивановна /AbuzyarovaMariya — кандидат экономических наук, доцент,

кафедра менеджмента, Самарский государственный экономический университет, г. Самара

Abstract: the present article deals with the role of information as a factor influencing economic growth in the degree not less than the traditional factors do: capital and labour. The emphasis was made on solving the task of IT development at companies which assumes formation and development of information management systems. Аннотация: в представленной статье рассматривается роль информации как фактора, влияющего на экономический рост не в меньшей степени, чем традиционные факторы - капитал и труд. Акцент сделан на решение задачи информатизации предприятий, которая предполагает формирование и развитие информационных систем управления.

Keywords: IT development at companies, company management, systematic approach.

Ключевые слова: информатизация предприятий, управление предприятиями, системный подход.

One of the main tasks of the modern development is strengthening the role of information, information resources and tools, which is important for the level of companies as the basic element of the market transformation of economy.

However, problems of company management on basis of using IT technologies are not yet studied in sufficient amount.

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