CC BY
271 gricultural
Bulletin of Stavropol Regj
Stavropol Region
= № 4(24)/2 Supplement, 2016
UDK 338.48
Ozaeva I., Ivolga A., Varivoda V.
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM MARKET: CURRENT STATE AND PROGNOSIS
Abstract: The article reflects the situation in international tourism market within 3 years. It analyses the total number of international tourists as well as shows the results on the regional level. The main tourism issues and their consequences that happened during last three years were highlighted. The purpose of the article is to show the trends on international tourism market that were formed
by environmental and geo-political influence. Based on available data, several results and trends were forecasted. This work includes some figures and statistics to prove the findings and give the clear understanding.
Key words: international tourism, tourism arrivals, tourism market development.
Ozaeva I. -
Student of the Faculty of Socio-cultural service and tourism
Stavropol State Agrarian University
Stavropol, Russia
Tel.: 8(8652)353980
E-mail:indgira@gmail.com
Ivolga A. -
Ph. D., Associate Professor, Department of Tourism and Service
Stavropol State Agrarian University Stavropol, Russia Tel.: 8(8652)353980 E-mail:annya_iv@mail.ru
Varivoda V. -
Ph. D., associate Professor, candidate of economic Sciences, Department of Tourism and Service Stavropol State Agrarian University Stavropol, Russia E-mail:vvalensiya@mail.ru
Introduction
The tourism in its modern definition starts by Grand Tour- a trip to Europe that upper-class young men did with a purpose of education and visiting other places; before the Tour tourism had military and religious purposes, which was at least at 3000 B.C. First people who started to travel with a leisure purpose were Egyptians, and then Greeks began to offer major sites and events to visitors, satisfy the demand of lodging and other services, as we as record observations - guide books [5].
Throughout the years tourism had experienced continuing growth and changes and became the fastest growing economic sector. Tourism is connected to other different economic sectors such as agriculture, constructions, telecommunications, transport, etc. It creates many benefits, for example high employment, however this tight connection does not allow the tourism to function by itself, which is indicate the importance of a sustainable tourism. It will help the country or communities progress in a balanced way. Unfortunately, nowadays tourism industry is growing faster than global economy as whole [12].
Tourism adapts all innovations such as new technologies or management strategies in order to attract more tourists, increase the capacity of the destination, along with environmental protection, conservation of cultural heritage and support of local people very quickly.
The purpose of this article is to analyze the current state of international tourism market and forecast its development.
Current state
In 2013 the general current state of international tourism market was positive (5 % growth) [3] Europe, the most visited region in the world, the result of 2013 (+5 % = 563 million of visitors) doubled the region's average in 2005-2012 (+2,5 %). Europe has all conditions to lead the ranking: rich cultural resources, strong health and hygiene conditions, well-developed infrastructure and Schengen Area, which represents high degree of international openness and integration [6,10, 11].
Asia and Pacific had a strongest growth (+6 %) in 2013, as well as Africa attracted more arrivals (+6 %).
In 2014 the growth was 4,4 % which reflects the sector's strong and consistent performance regardless the global challenges such as Ebola virus, a slow global economic recovery and geopolitical conflicts. This year the Americas took the best result by having +8 % growth, which was made mostly by North America and Caribbean. Europe had only 3 % growth, however it kept its status of the most visited region of the world. Asia and the Pacific kept its position by having 5 % growth, in Africa it was only 2 %.
The tourism market in 2015 faced different challenges: international tourists were influenced by continued geopolitical conflicts, air crashes.
The forecast of global tourism is positive, the increasing number of international tourists is expected. UNWTO sees the Asia - Pacific region as the most popular destination as it has a significant potential to receive tourists, they expect the number of
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international tourist arrivals to be more than doubled from 205 million to 541 million in 2030.
Tourism struggling
For a long time, Paris was named as the most popular city destination, unfortunately in 2014 due to the geopolitical conflict it stepped back on third place, after London and Bangkok [3]. Significant hit the tourism industry of Paris took the 13th November 2015, after terrorist attack in different places of the capital of France. The flight booking felt by 27 % and hotel revenue decreased by 30-40 %. For country where 9 % of its GDP and 10 % of total employment lay back on tourism, the decline was remarkable. The situation could have been worst if it would have happened not at the end of the year. Even so the climate summit brought a thousand of attendees and visitors in first two weeks of December [4].
After another terrorist attack in Egypt, the economic situation of the country was weak, as Egypt tourism depending country, and it had attempts to revive the main economic sector after years of political turmoil. It is ranked 12 for direct contribution for employment in 2014, and after the events in 2015, the rank was dropped till the 21th place [11]. In 2014 the total contribution of Travel & Tourism in Egypt was 12.8 %, which was expected to growth by 2.9& in 2015. Unfortunately, after the loss of 41 % ar-
Figure 1 - The hotel occupancy in Paris after terrorist attack in January (red line)
and November (blue line) 2015
2.8M
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
rivals in 2015, the biggest market, the UK and the Russian Federation, imposed restrictions on travelling to Egypt. The industry never fully recovered to the peak year of 2010, which was about 15 million visitors.
Another destination which is experiencing drop in tourism statistic is Russian Federation. According to the Travel& Tourism Competitive Index 2015, having high scores on natural and cultural heritage, health and hygiene, Russia does not see tourism as a national priority. The country does not support the environmental sustainability and business environment. The most common reason why international travelers do not travel to Russia is a complicated visa process and safety & security challenges [2]. No doubts, that after such kind of sport evens as the Universiade 2013 in Kazan and the Olympic Winter Games 2012 in Sochi, the main infrastructure (transportation and communication channels, hospitals and tourism facilities) were arranged. Unfortunately, after political events in Crimea and geopolitical situation in the world, tourism transaction supposed to be harmed in both ways. Regardless this situation the number of arriving tourists definitely goes up. Due to the fact that Russian Federation is holding the organization of FIFA World Cup 2018, the remarkable improvement in number of tourists arrived is expected [1].
Figure 2 - Number of tourists in November and December
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Bulletin of Stavropol Region
№ 4(24)/2 Supplement, 2016
27 000 000
26 500 000
26 000 000
25 500 000
25 000 000
24 500 000
24 000 000
23 500 000
23 000 000
22 500 000
September 2013
September 2014
September 2015
Figure 3 - International arrivals statistics in Russia
Tourism market trends
Based on the previous highlights, the actuality of safety& security on the tourism destinations is clear. Modern tourism is multifaceted and it is involved a lot of different stakeholders, that is why safety & security should be prioritized for any tourism destination. The first time the global tourism experienced collapse after September 11, when the massive $3.6 trillion industry almost ground to a halt after the terrorist attacks. In order to avoid the lost over billion dollars in revenue caused by fear of more terrorist attacks, governments of many countries work on safety & security programs, as tourism makes a big part of economy in many countries.
According to the World Travel and Tourism Council, it takes 13 months to recover after a terrorist attack, by comparing to recover from disease - 21 months, environmental catastrophes - 24 moths and political unrest - 27 moths. WTTC investigated some cases of fast recovery after terrorist attacks in popular tourism destination: in 2004 Madrid took only one week to get the same amount of tourist after the train bombings; the bombings in London 2005 had no notable effect on tourism. However, the context of terrorist attack has big influence, the death toll of Madrid bombing and Indonesian bombing in 2005 was equal but impact on international arrivals was significantly lower [4]. Of course, Madrid is one of the most popular destinations in Europe, and the biggest percentage of tourist comes from Schengen Zone. Thus, in my opinion, the time of recovery depends on the situation of the country.
The next improvement in tourism industry that Ministers of Tourism are trying to apply is threaten
the previous, safety & security, as it is travel facilitation, concerning the visa facilitation polices among the G20 economies. It contradicts to the safe travelling, because it increases a lot the tourist flow between the destinations, which means that control on each tourist destination should be stricter [9].
According to APEC Leaders the visa facilitation should give a boost to the economic, as the capacity will increase, all tourist facilities will expand which is followed by job creation. The research shows that after implementation of new polices Asia - Pacific region will receive between 38 - 57 million additional tourists, which will influence on the employment rate positively, as the total number of new jobs created is being estimated to 1.8- 2.6 million [10].
Discovering Asia and Pacific regions is another trend. It has not only hosting possibility, but it is also a huge outbound market.
Conclusions
Regardless different challenges throughout 3 previous years, the volume of international transactions is increasing. Some of the destinations, like Middle East, are losing its position on the global tourism market due to the geopolitical conflicts. Other destinations like Paris or Russian Federation have a strong potential to recover after a regress of arrivals number. The international tourism market itself depends on exchange rates, oil prices, environment conditions, particularly safety & security. Now then Asia and Pacific are the most developing destinations due to positive economy and strong position on international market.
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