CC BY
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Вестник РУДН. Серия: Экономика
2020 Vol. 28 No. 4 778-786
http://journals.rudn.ru/economics
DOI 10.22363/2313-2329-2020-28-4-778-786 UDC 339:339.9
Research article
Impact of labor migrants from Tajikistan on the economic security of the Russian Federation
Abubakr Kh. Rakhmonov1, Roman V. Manshin1'2
'Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University) 6 Miklukho-Maklaya St, Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation 2Institute of Socio-Political Research - Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences
6 Fotieva St, bldg 1, Moscow, 119333, Russian Federation
Abstract. The article deals with the problems of the influence of migration flows from Tajikistan on the economic security of Russia, the contribution of Tajik labor migrants to the economy of the Russian Federation, the role of remittances and the consequences of Tajik labor migrants for the financial sector of the Russian Federation, as well as the reasons for the reorientation of Tajik labor migrants from Russia to other foreign countries. With the development of the economy, Russia has become a major migration center, a capacious labor market. With a low birth and a high mortality rates, Russia, like most European countries, needs a positive migration growth, an effective mechanism for attracting labor. As in other countries, the boundaries of migration capacity are determined by factors: trends and prospects for economic development, the situation on the labor market, and the availability of social infrastructure. The migration attractiveness of a country determines the level of migration flows to Russia. The Republic of Tajikistan is currently the second country after Uzbekistan that provides Russia with labor migrants. Tajik migrants have a big influence on the economy, financial sphere, as well as on other spheres of activity of the Russian Federation. Every year Tajik labor migrants make a big contribution to the Russian economy.
Keywords: migration flows, economic security, migration policy, emigration, Tajikistan, Russia, national security, remittances, reorientation of migrants
In modern Russia, in recent decades, the problems of the country's security have become extremely urgent due to the impact of migration processes. Modern mass migration, acquiring a global character, is the bearer of an unprecedented contradiction between settlers and permanent residents of host countries. Migration processes affect all aspects of social life. Such an impact requires an assessment by society and the development of a migration policy of the state in order to effectively use the advantages provided by international migration of the population and, if possible, mitigate its negative consequences on the economic security
© Rakhmonov A.Kh., Manshin R.V., 2020
(gv q I This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License https://creativecomn10ns.0rg/licenses/by/4.O/
The relevance of research
of Russia. The purpose of this study is to identify criteria and indicators that reflect the relationship between migration, socio-economic processes and national security. The subject of this research is the nature of the impact of migration on the national security system and their interaction with the socio-economic development of the state. Methods of statistical and comparative analysis are used as research methods, in addition, a sociological method - a survey of experts was conducted, as well as among citizens of the Russian Federation about their attitude towards labor migrants from Tajikistan.
The concept of economic security
According to Alexander Litvinenko: "Economic security is a complex socioeconomic category, which is influenced by constantly changing conditions of material production, external and internal threats to the economy. Economic security is the basis of the national security of the state. Ensuring national security is the main responsibility of the state, which is carried out in close cooperation with economic agents. National security reflects the ability of the relevant political, legal and economic institutions of the state to protect the interests of their key subjects in the national economic traditions and values. Therefore, its development must be considered in the general context of the formation of a national security state" (Litvinenko, 2013).
I.A. Maksimtseva, D.Yu. Miropolsky and L.S. Tarasevich in the book "Eurasian Political Economy", write that economic security creates a basis that can be used to successfully solve all other internal and external problems of the economic system that determine the direction of its further development to increase competitiveness in the world economy and ensure national security in general (Maksimtseva et al., 2016).
According to the ILO approach: "Economic security consists of basic social security defined by access to infrastructure of basic needs related to health, education, housing, information and social protection, and security related to work" (ILO, 2004).
G. Vechkanov understands economic security as a complex indicative system that includes national interests in the economic sphere, as well as threats and threshold values of economic security indicators (Vechkanov, 2005).
Inflow of labor migrants from Tajikistan to the labor market of the Russian Federation
At present, Tajikistan is the second country after Uzbekistan that provides Russia with labor migrants. According to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation in 2017 (see Figure), 63,467 labor migrants from Tajikistan stayed in the Russian Federation, compared to 1997, this is 2.8 times more.
According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, for the period 2016-2019, 339,840 citizens of Tajikistan were registered at their place of residence in the Russian Federation1. According to the Head of the Department for Migration Affairs of the Ministry of Labor of Tajikistan, S. Saidov, the number of
1 Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation. Retrieved May 23, 2020, from mv.d.rf/Deljatelnost/statistics/migracionnaya
migrants from Tajikistan who were on the territory of Russia in 2019 for the purpose of work could have been about 1.3 million people (Saidov, 2019).
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Figure. The number of arrived migrants from Tajikistan to Russia in 1997-2017, people Source: Data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation.
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According to the Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan2, in 2014 there were 671 thousand citizens of Tajikistan abroad, which amounted to approximately 8.13% of the country's population. According to the Federal Migration Service of Russia, at the beginning of August 2015, there were 985 thousand Tajik citizens in the country. In 2014, about 626 thousand migrant workers from Tajikistan worked here. According to the FSB of Russia, 523.9 thousand citizens of this country arrived from Tajikistan to Russia in the first half of 20193.
Most of the Tajik migrants in the Russian Federation are men aged 18-45 years. They work mainly in low-skilled jobs such as handymen at construction sites, movers at markets, janitors, etc. (Ulmasov, 2019). Also, many Tajik migrants come with their families to obtain citizenship and live in Russia. Now one of the popular channels for citizens of Tajikistan has become - the resettlement program. It is through this line that many Tajiks come to Russia. In 2018, more than 269 thousand people received Russian citizenship. Most often, people from Ukraine (83 thousand), Kazakhstan (45.3 thousand), Tajikistan (35.7 thousand), Armenia (27.1 thousand), Uzbekistan (21 thousand), etc.4
2 Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan. (n.d.). Labor migration statistics in the Republic of Tajikistan. Retrieved March 5, 2020, from http://www.cisstat.com/CIS_ Labourstat/CIS_Labourstat_2_27-2%202015%20Bishkek%20Statistics%20of%20laboi%20migration% 20in%20Tajikistan.pdf
3 SPUTNIK Tajikistan. (2019, September 10). In Tajikistan, labor migration increased by one third. Retrieved April 13, 2020, from https://tj.sputniknews.ru/migration/20190910/1029833 969/Tajikistan-trudovaya-migratsiya-vyrosla.html
4 Rossiyskaya Gazeta. (2019, March 3). Ministry of Internal Affairs: The number of those who received Russian citizenship has doubled in five years. Retrieved March 9, 2020, from https://rg.ru/ 2019/03/06/mvd-chislo-poluchivshih-grazhdanstvo-rf-vyroslo-vdvoe-za-piat-let.html
Contribution of labor migrants from Tajikistan to the economy of the Russian Federation
Labor migrants, in addition to their own countries, also bring profit to the economy of the host countries. Also, migrants mainly work in non-prestigious niches in the labor market with difficult working conditions, to which local residents do not always agree. Labor migrants bring profit to the RF budget in different ways, one of them is a patent. The presence of a labor patent is one of the prerequisites for the legal work of foreign citizens on the territory of Russia. In 2017, the budget of the Russian Federation received over 50 billion rubles from the sale of patents to labor migrants5. In 2018, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, 1.7 million patents were issued to labor migrants, the income from the sale of patents amounted to 57 billion rubles6.
Table 1
Contribution of Tajik migrants through a patent to the budget of the Russian Federation for the period 2011-2018
Year Average price of The number of citizens of Contribution of Tajik migrants
a patent in Tajikistan who have received through a patent to the budget
the Russian a patent of the Russian Federation, mln
Federation Thousand people % of the total number of patents Ruble U.S. dollar
2011 2480,9057 161,1 21,1 399,67 13,6
2012 2480,9057 228,6 21,2 567,14 18,5
2013 2480,9057 301,9 22,3 748,99 23,47
2014 2480,9057 443,5 20,8 1100,28 28,5
2015 3199,8787 423,2 25,1 1354,19 22,08
2016 3706,669 393,4 25,5 1458,2 21,82
2017 3973,5296 432,8 26,2 1719,74 29,5
2018 4127,7701 443,2 26,7 1829,43 29,07
Total 2827,7 9177,64 186,3
Sources: compiled by the authors based on the data: Dynamics of exchange rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Retrieved June 15, 2020, from https://ratestats.com/; Federal State Statistics Service. (n.d.). Labor and employment in Russia 2019. Retrieved June 15, 2020, from https://gks.ru/ storage/mediabank/Trud_2019.pdf; Magazine "Glavbukh". Retrieved June 15, 2020, from https://www.glavbukh.ru/ art/36974- patent-inostranec-2019
Every year since 2014 (Table 1), citizens of Tajikistan buy an average of 420 thousand patents. For the period from 2011-2018, on average 23.6% of the total number of patents are patents of citizens of Tajikistan. In about 8 years, the Russian Federation received 9.8 billion rubles from the sale of patents to citizens of Tajikistan.
5 Economy and life. (2018, April 24). In 2017, patents for labor migrants brought 51 billion rubles in income. Retrieved April 17, 2020, from https://www.eg-online.ru/news/371510/
6 INTERFAX.RU. (2019, January 25). In 2018, income from the sale of patents to labor migrants amounted to 57 billion rubles. Retrieved May 24, 2020, from https://www.interfax.ru/ russia/647712
In addition, Tajik labor migrants leave part of their wages in the Russian economy, spending on food, transport, accommodation and other services.
Citizens of Tajikistan work in all regions of the Russian Federation. But most of the migrants come to large cities, primarily to Moscow and Saint Petersburg. In Moscow, for the period from 2017 to 2019, 483,057 patents were issued to citizens of Tajikistan (Table 2), the income from advance payments for this period is approximately 2.212 billion rubles.
Table 2
Contribution of Tajik migrants through a patent to the Moscow budget in 2017-2019
Year The cost of a patent in Moscow Number of citizens who received a patent Contribution of Tajik migrants through a patent to the Moscow budget, mln Ruble U.S. dollar
2017 4200 159 305 669,08 11,48
2018 4500 152 532 686,39 10,91
2019 5000 171 220 856,10 13,25
Sources: compiled by the authors based on the data: Dynamics of exchange rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Retrieved June 15, 2020, from https://ratestats.com/; MigrantMedia. Retrieved June 15, 2020, from https://migrantmedia.ru/; Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia. Retrieved June 15, 2020, from https: //mv.d.rf/
In 2015, Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced that the Moscow budget received more money from the sale of labor patents to migrants than from the capital's oil companies7. In 2016, income from the sale of patents to the Moscow budget increased by 30% compared to 2015 and amounted to 14 billion rubles (Sharifulin, 2016).
According to the head of the Department of Economic Policy and Development Vladimir Efimov, in the first nine months of 2017, 323 thousand patents were issued to labor migrants, 46% of patents were received by citizens of Uzbekistan, 32% were citizens of Tajikistan, 12% of Ukraine, 7% of Moldova and 3% of Azerbaijan (Sarjveladze, 2017). At the end of 2017, labor migrants brought income to the Moscow budget 15.7 billion, which is 9% more than in 20168.
In January - November 2018, the Moscow budget received 15.9 billion rubles from the sale of patents to labor migrants, an increase of 12%9.
In 2019, the Moscow budget revenue from the patent of labor migrants grew by 5.2% compared to 2018 and amounted to 18.3 billion rubles. In 2019, 463.7 thousand labor patents were issued in Moscow, half of the patents were issued to citizens of Uzbekistan, 38% to citizens of Tajikistan, 6% of Ukraine and 3% to citizens of Azerbaijan and Moldova10.
7 RBC. (2016, January 29). Moscow's revenues from the sale ofpatents exceeded revenues from oil companies. Retrieved June 29, 2020, from https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/56ab4f3a9a 794770ae03f7d6
8 Multifunctional Migration Center of Moscow (MMC). (2018, January 23). Over the past year, labor migrants brought 15.7 billion rubles to the capital's budget. Retrieved February 20, 2020, from https://mc.mos.ru/ru/about/piece-of-news/248
9 SPUTNIK Tajikistan. (2019, January 25). It became known how much Russia earned on labor migrants in 2018. Retrieved March 9, 2020, from https://tj.sputniknews.ru/migration/20190125/ 1028085906/russia-dohod-trudovye-migranty.html
10 TASS. (2020, February 10). Moscow's income from patents of labor migrants in 2019 increased by 5.2%. Retrieved May 12, 2020, from https://tass.ru/ekonomika/7725753
Contribution of labor migrants from Tajikistan to the financial sector of the Russian Federation
Tajik labor migrants have an impact on both the budget of the Russian Federation and its entire financial system. Once on the Russian labor market, Tajik migrants are already becoming the object of taxation. In addition to labor migrants, employers using labor migrant workers also pay certain portions of taxes and fees. The collection of taxes from the salaries of immigrants also grows with the growth of their inflow (state duties, advance payments, etc.).
The main factors that influence the financial impact of labor migration depend to a large extent on the specific characteristics of the migrants themselves, such as reasons for migration and age. A study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has shown that low-skilled young labor migrants pay more taxes and fees than the government spends on them (Grebenyuk, 2018).
Another positive consequence of labor migrants is an increase in payments for the consumption of utilities, as well as the use of dwellings by Tajik migrants. This effect depends on the amount of traffic and infrastructure development, as well as the rental market. In general, the growing influx of migrant workers stimulates the construction of hostels and residential buildings. At the same time, the compact distribution of migrants and the formation of ethnic ghettos can reduce the value of real estate in these areas, which reduces property tax revenues when calculated on a value-based basis.
Also, another positive consequence of labor migrants on the financial sphere of Russia is the slowdown in inflation due to the increased propensity for savings on the part of foreign workers and transfers abroad. In fact, savings and remittances out of the country can reduce the amount of money in circulation, which should have a positive impact on inflation.
Due to remittances of Tajik migrants, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble is also strengthening. If labor migrants transfer money from the Russian Federation in rubles to Tajikistan, the rate of the Russian national currency (ruble) will strengthen. The greater the effect, the greater the amount of money transferred abroad. But if a Tajik migrant receives a salary in rubles, buys US dollars and makes a transfer, then the demand for foreign currency increases, which may put some pressure on the Russian ruble exchange rate.
Results
In our study, we showed that migrants from Tajikistan have a big influence on the economy, financial sphere, as well as on other spheres of activity of the Russian Federation. Every year Tajik labor migrants make a big contribution to the Russian economy. For example, for the period from 2014 to 2018, Tajik migrants brought 7.47 billion rubles to the budget of the Russian Federation only due to the patent (Table 1). In addition to patents, they also leave part of their salaries in the Russian Federation, paying for food, utilities and other services. It is safe to say that every year migrants from Tajikistan bring a lot of money to the budget of the Russian Federation.
The role of Tajik migrants in the financial sphere of the Russian Federation is also significant. For example, the national currency of Russia (ruble) is being streng-
thened due to remittances from Tajik migrants. Another positive consequence is an increase in payments for the use of housing and utilities by Tajik migrants.
Accordingly, we can say that Tajik labor migrants make a great contribution in all spheres of activity.
Conclusion
Migration processes have both positive and negative impact on the sociopolitical and economic situation. The emerging migration situation has a direct impact on the problems of state security, especially political and economic, since we are talking about the need to ensure economic development, the population of the territory of Russia and, consequently, the territorial integrity and security of the state. The purpose of the migration security of the Russian Federation is to ensure the national security of the Russian Federation by achieving maximum security, comfort, well-being of the population, stabilizing and increasing the number of resident population that meets the needs of the Russian economy in terms of labor, modernization and innovative development, increasing the competitiveness of their industries. Labor migrants from Tajikistan make a great contribution to the social and economic sphere of the Russian Federation. Labor migrants from Tajikistan bring a lot of income to the RF budget. Russia remains attractive to Tajik labor migrants. The advantages of Russia are the absence of a language barrier, no need to obtain a visa and work permit, a common mentality, the prospects for obtaining citizenship. However, the harshness of the migration policy and the fall in salaries in Russia may force migrants from Tajikistan to find another channel of emigration. In these conditions, Russia should reduce the unreasonable pressure of migration control on Tajik migrants in the registration procedures and checks by the police. Otherwise, the active participation of intermediaries in the employment of migrants, as well as an active policy of attracting labor migrants from Central Asian countries to the OECD will lead to the loss of a significant part of Russia's migration potential.
References
Grebenyuk, A. (2018). How does labor migration affect the economy of recipient countries? Retrieved June 15, 2020, from http://www.ictsd.org/bridges-news/bridges/news/as-labor-migration-influences-theeconomyoftherecipientcountries-labor-forces ILO. (2004). The program of socio-economic security. Retrieved June 15, 2020, from
http://www.oit.org/public/english/protection/ses/download/docs/definition.pdf Litvinenko, A.N. (2013). Economic and national security: The problem of correlation of concepts. Scientific review. Economic science, 3(173), 9-15. Maksimtseva, I.A., Miropolsky, D.Yu. & Tarasevich, L.S. (2016). Evraziiskaya politicheskaya ekonomiya [Eurasian political economy]. Saint Petersburg, Saint Petersburg State University of Economics and Finance Publ. (In Russ.) Saidov, S. (2019). Mintruda Tadzhikistana usomnilos' v rossijskoj statistike migrantov [Ministry of Labor of Tajikistan doubted the Russian statistics of migrants]. (In Russ.) Retrieved June 15, 2020, from https://tj.sputniknews.ru/migration/20190725/1029490147/ mintruda-tajikistan-statistika-migranty.html Sarjveladze, C. (2017). Chislo vydannykh migrantam patentov v Moskve v etom goduprevysi-lo 300 tys. [The number of issued patents to migrants in Moscow this year exceeded
300 thousand]. (In Russ.) Retrieved June 15, 2020, from https://www.rbc.ru/politics/ 19/10/2017/59e8908a9a7947b5d39647a8 Sharifulin, V. (2016). Moskva poluchila na 30% bol'she dokhoda ot prodazhi patentov mi-grantam v 2016 godu [Moscow received 30% more income from the sale of patents migrants in 2016]. (In Russ.) Retrieved June 15, 2020, from https://tass.ru/moskva/3911864 Ulmasov, R. (2019). Vliyanie vneshnei migratsii na brachnost' i razvodimost' migrantov [The impact of external migration on the marriage rate and the divorce rate of migrants]. RIAC. (In Russ.) Retrieved June 15, 2020, from https://russiancouncil.ru/blogs/ rahmon-ulmasov/vliyanie-vneshney-migratsii-na-brachnost-i-razvodimost-migrantov/ Vechkanov, G.S. (2005). Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost' [Economic security]. Saint Petersburg, Vektor Publ. (In Russ.)
Article history:
Received: 2 July 2020 Revised: 20 July 2020 Accepted: 17 August 2020
For citation:
Rakhmonov, A.Kh., & Manshin, R.V. (2020). Impact of labor migrants from Tajikistan on the economic security of the Russian Federation. RUDN Journal of Economics, 28(4), 778-786. http://dx.doi.org/10.22363/2313-2329-2020-28-4-778-786
Bio notes:
Abubakr K. Rakhmonov, postgraduate student of the Department of International Economic Relations of the Faculty of Economics of the Peoples Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University). E-mail: [email protected]
Roman V. Manshin, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor of the Department of International Economics of the Faculty of Economics of the Peoples Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University); leading researcher of the Institute of Socio-Political Research under the Russian Academy of Sciences. E-mail: [email protected]
DOI 10.22363/2313-2329-2020-28-4-778-786
Научная статья
Влияние трудовых мигрантов из Таджикистана на экономическую безопасность РФ
А.Х. Рахмонов1, Р.В. Маньшин1'2
Российский университет дружбы народов Российская Федерация, 117198, Москва, ул. Миклухо-Маклая, 6 12Институт социально-политических исследований Федерального научно-исследовательского социологического центра
Российской академии наук Российская Федерация, 119333, Москва, ул. Фотиевой, д. 6, корп. 1
Аннотация. В статье рассматриваются проблемы влияния миграционных потоков из Таджикистана на экономическую безопасность России, вклад таджикских трудовых мигрантов в экономику Российской Федерации, роль денежных переводов и выгоды, получаемые от таджикских трудовых мигрантов финансовой сферой Российской Федерации, а также причины переориентации таджикских трудовых мигрантов на другие
зарубежные страны. С развитием экономики Россия превратилась в крупный миграционный центр, емкий рынок труда. При низкой рождаемости и высокой смертности России, как и большинству европейских стран, необходим положительный миграционный прирост, эффективный механизм привлечения рабочей силы. Как и в других странах, границы миграционного потенциала определяются факторами: тенденциями и перспективами экономического развития, ситуацией на рынке труда, наличием социальной инфраструктуры. Миграционная привлекательность страны определяет уровень миграционных потоков в Россию. В настоящее время Таджикистан является второй страной после Узбекистана, которая обеспечивает Россию трудовыми мигрантами. Таджикские мигранты имеют большое влияние на экономику, финансовую сферу, а также на другие сферы деятельности Российской Федерации. Ежегодно таджикские трудовые мигранты вносят большой вклад в экономику России.
Ключевые слова: миграционные потоки, экономическая безопасность, миграционная политика, эмиграция, Таджикистан, Россия, национальная безопасность, денежные переводы, переориентация мигрантов
История статьи:
Дата поступления в редакцию: 2 июля 2020 г.
Дата проверки: 20 июля 2020 г.
Дата принятия к печати: 17 августа 2020 г.
Для цитирования:
Rakhmonov A.Kh., Manshin R. V. Impact of labor migrants from Tajikistan on the economic security of the Russian Federation // Вестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Экономика. 2020. Т. 28. № 4. С. 778-786. http://dx.doi.org/10.22363/ 2313-2329-2020-28-4-778-786
Сведения об авторах:
Рахмонов Абубакр Хасанович, аспирант кафедры международных экономических отношений экономического факультета Российского университета дружбы народов. E-mail: [email protected]
Маньшин Роман Владимирович, кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафедры международных экономических отношений экономического факультета Российского университета дружбы народов; ведущий научный сотрудник Центра социальной демографии Института социально-политических исследований Российской академии наук. E-mail: [email protected]
