CC BY
19
УДК 325.2 JEL J01 DOI 10.26425/2309-3633-2021-9-1-16-26
Получено: 11.01.2021 Статья доработана после рецензирования: 18.02.2021 Принято: 25.02.2021
Эмиграция из Таджикистана в страны Балтии: тенденции и перспективы развития
Рахмонов Абубакр Хасанович12
Аспирант, мл. науч. сотр., ORCID: 0000-0001-9924-5857, e-mail: [email protected]
1ФГБОУ ВО «Российский университет дружбы народов», 117198, ул. Миклухо-Маклая, 6, г.
Москва, Российская Федерация
2Институт демографических исследований (ИДИ) ФНИСЦ РАН, 119333, ул. Фотиевой, д. 6, к. 1,
г. Москва, Российская Федерация
Аннотация
Исследованы отношения между Республикой Таджикистан и странами Балтии после обретения независимости от СССР. Страны Балтии рассмотрены как новое направление эмиграции для граждан Таджикистана. Внимание также уделено денежным переводам из стран Балтии в экономику Таджикистана. Цель статьи - выявить новые тенденции и направления трудовой миграции из Таджикистана в страны Балтии. Задачи исследования - определить факторы, влияющие на формирование новых географических направлений трудовой миграции из Таджикистана. Основным методом исследования стали экономико-статистический метод, включающий сбор и обработку данных о трудовой миграции, а также оценка вклада трудовой миграции в валовой внутренний продукт Таджикистана как отправляющей страны на основе авторских методик расчетов. Важным методом исследования являлось проведение интервью экспертов, а также вторичный анализ социологических опросов и интернет-ресурсов с историями жизни и миграции эмигрантов из Таджикистана в страны Балтии.
Ключевые слова: эмиграция, Таджикистан, Литва, Латвия, Эстония, Россия, трудовая миграция, денежные переводы, СССР
Благодарность. Исследование выполнено при финансовой поддержке РФФИ в рамках научного проекта № 19-310-90079\19.
Для цитирования: Рахмонов А.Х. Эмиграция из Таджикистана в страны Балтии: тенденции и перспективы развития// Управление. 2021. Т. 9. № 1. С. 16-26. БО!: 10.26425/2309-3633-2021-9-1-16-26
© Рахмонов А.Х., 2021.
Статья доступна по лицензии Creative Commons «Attribution» («Атрибуция») 4.0. всемирная (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/)
Received: 11.01.2021 Revised: 18.02.2021 Accepted: 25.02.2021
Emigration from Tajikistan to the Baltic States: trends and prospects of development
Abubakr Kh. Rakhmonov12
Postgraduate Student, Junior Researcher, ORCID: 0000-0001-9924-5857, e-mail: [email protected] 1RUDN University, 6, Miklukho-Maklaya ul., Moscow, 117198 Russia institute for Demographic Research (IDR) FCTAS RAS, 6 k. 1, Fotieva ul., Moscow, 119333 Russia
Abstract
The article studies the relations between the Republic of Tajikistan and the Baltic States after gaining independence from the USSR. The paper considers the Baltic States as a new direction of emigration for citizens of Tajikistan. The author also pays attention to remittances from the Baltic States to the economy of Tajikistan. The purpose of the article is to identify new trends and directions of labor migration from Tajikistan to the Baltic countries. The objectives of the study are to determine the factors influencing the formation of new geographical directions of labor migration from Tajikistan. The main research method was the economic and statistical method, which includes the collection and processing of data on labor migration, as well as an assessment of the contribution of labor migration to the gross domestic product of Tajikistan as a sending country based on the author's calculation methods. An important research method was conducting interviews with experts, as well as a secondary analysis of sociological surveys and Internet resources with stories of the life and migration of emigrants from Tajikistan to the Baltic countries.
Keywords: emigration, Tajikistan, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Russia, labor migration, remittances, USSR
Acknowledgment. The reported study was carried out with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research within the framework of the scientific project No. 19-310-90079\19.
For citation: Rakhmonov A.Kh. (2021). Emigration from Tajikistan to the Baltic States: trends and prospects of development. Upravlenie, 9 (1), pp. 16-26. DOI: 10.26425/2309-3633-2021-9-1-16-26
© Rakhmonov A.Kh., 2021.
This is an open access article under the CC BY 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Introduction [Введение]
Tajikistan became part of the USSR in 1929. The Baltic States joined the USSR in August 1939 during the signing of a non-aggression pact between Germany and the Soviet Union by the USSR and Nazi Germany [Semiryaga, 1992]. Tajikistan and the Baltic States in the past lived under the same country - the USSR. Since then, the history of relations between Tajikistan and the Baltic States began. From Tajikistan, they went to study, work, and permanent residence in the Baltic States, including, conversely, from the Baltic States to Tajikistan. In the context of globalization, an increasing number of countries are involved in the process of international labor migration. The new states that emerged on the territory of the former Soviet Union were no exception, the collapse of which Russian President V. Putin in one of his messages to the Federal Assembly justly called "the great geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century" [Ryazantsev, 2007, pp. 9-10]. Indeed, the collapse of a huge country with a large-scale industrial economy that had been forming for 70 years, which occurred almost overnight, gave rise to many socio-economic problems for ordinary people in almost all newly formed states - disruption of economic ties, a decline in production, a decrease in income, an increase in unemployment and poverty.
After the collapse of the USSR, all countries gained their independence, including Tajikistan and the Baltic States [Abdulloev et al, 2020]. The first diplomatic relations between the independent Republic of Tajikistan and the independent Republic of Latvia were established on May 11, 1994. With the Republic of Estonia, the Republic of Tajikistan signed diplomatic relations on February 23, 2006. As well as diplomatic relations between the Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Lithuania were established in 1992. After the accession of the Baltic States to the Schengen agreement, Tajik citizens need a Schengen visa to enter to the Baltic States [Oli-mova & Bosc, 2003]. One of the main motivations for emigration from Tajikistan to the Baltic States is the common history, as well as the spread of the Russian language in these countries to this day. Russians in the Baltic States are the largest national minority in Latvia (24.7 %1 at the beginning of 2020) and Estonia (24.7 %2
1 IRG080 (2020), Population by nationality in regions, cities of the Republic, 21 Development Center and counties at the beginning of the year [Iedzlvotaju skaits pec tautlbas regionos, republikas pilsetas, 21 attlstlbas centra un novados gada sakuma], PxWeb. Available at: https://data.csb.gov.lv/pxweb/lv/iedz/ iedz_iedzrakst/IRG080.px (accessed 24.12.2020). (In Latvian).
2 Statistikaamet [Statistical Office] RV0222U (2020), Population by gender, ethnicity and county, January 1. Administrative division as of January 1, 2018 [Rahvastik soo, rahvuse ja maakonna jargi, 1. Jaanuar. Haldusjaotus
at the beginning of 2020), and in Lithuania - the second largest (4.5 %3 at the beginning of 2019).
Research methods and sources of information [Методы исследования и источники информации]
Two methods in this study were used. First, economic-statistical method. This approach made it possible to establish the extent to which remittances of Tajik migrants from the Baltic countries have an impact on the macroeconomic situation in the countries of origin of migrants. Secondly, the sociological method, the results of opinion polls and expert interviews were analysed (secondary analysis of sociological data). The article used statistical data on the number and structure of labor migration from Tajikistan, the volume of remittances over a number of years. Data are provided by the World Bank, the National Statistical Service of Tajikistan, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Currently, the World Bank has information on the volume of remittances of migrants and the share of remittances in the structure of gross domestic product (GDP) to most countries of the world up to 2018, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation - provides data up to the 1st quarter of 2019. Data on the number and structure of labor migration from Tajikistan.
Relations between the Republic of Tajikistan and the Baltic States after the collapse of the USSR [Отношения между Республикой Таджикистан и странами Балтии после распада СССР]
Republic of Lithuania [Литовская Республика]
Diplomatic relations between the Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Lithuania were established in 19924.
The official visit of the President of the Republic of Tajikistan E. Rahmon to the Republic of Lithuania on February 11-13, 2009 marked a new milestone in the history of bilateral relations between the countries. During the visit, the head of state met with President of the
seisuga 01.01.2018]. Available at: https://bit.ly/38WDcvn (accessed 24.12.2020)
(In Estonian).
3 Indicators database (2019), Official Statistics Portal [Oficialiosios statistikos portalas]. Available at: https://osp.stat.gov.lt/statistiniu-rodikliu-analize?indicator=S3R162#/ (accessed 24.12.2020) (In Lithuanian).
4 Tajik-Lithuanian relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic
of Tajikistan. Available at: https://mfa.tj/ru/main/view/167/otnosheniya-
tadzhikistana-s-litvoi (accessed 24.12.2020) (In Russian).
Republic of Lithuania V. Adamkus, Chairman of the Seimas A. Valinskas and Prime Minister of this country A. Kubilius. At the end of the visit, a business forum of entrepreneurs from Tajikistan and Lithuania was held with the participation of the presidents of both countries. During the visit to Lithuania, the following documents were signed: Declaration on the Development of Friendly Relations and Cooperation between the Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Lithuania; Agreement between the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan and the Government of the Republic of Lithuania on Mutual Encouragement and Protection of Investments; Memorandum of Understanding between the Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Tajikistan and Lithuania5.
Trade and economic cooperation
Lithuania is considered one of the main partners of the Republic of Tajikistan among European states. The volume of foreign trade turnover of the Republic of Tajikistan with the Republic of Lithuania in 2017 amounted to 8.8 million US dollars (exports - 0.5 million US dollars and imports - 8.3 million US dollars). In 2018, the volume of trade increased by 1.4 million US dollars (15.9 %) and amounted to 10.2 million US dollars (imports - 10.1 million US dollars and exports - 0.1 million US dollars)6.
Republic of Latvia [Латвийская Республика]
Diplomatic relations between the Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Latvia were established on May 11, 19947.
On July 11-14, 2009, President of the Republic of Latvia Valdis Zatlers paid a state visit to the Republic of Tajikistan. During the visit at the Palace of the nation held talks with Valdis Zatlers and the President of the Republic of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, the results of which were signed the following bilateral documents: Joint Statement on Further Development of Relations of Friendship and Cooperation between the Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Latvia; Agreement between the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan and the Government of the Republic of Latvia on International Road Transport; Agreement between the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan and the Government of the Republic of Latvia on Economic, Industrial, Scientific and Technical Cooperation 8.
5 Ibid.
6 World Bank Data. Available at: https://databank.worldbank.org (accessed 04.01.2021).
7 Tajik-Latvian relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan. Available at: https://mfa.tj/ru/main/view/164/otnosheniya-tadzhikistana-s-latviei (accessed 04.01.2021). (In Russian).
8 Ibid.
Economic cooperation
On November 30, 2013, a meeting of the Tajik-Latvian Joint Committee on Economic, Industrial, Scientific and Technical Cooperation was held in Riga. As a result of the meeting, the parties signed the Protocol of the Meeting of the Tajik-Latvian Joint Committee on Economic, Industrial, Scientific, and Technical Cooperation. Within the framework of Latvia's presidency of the Council of the European Union on April 15-18, 2015, a delegation of the Republic of Tajikistan headed by the Deputy Minister of Industry and New Technologies Mr. Ruzizoda Akram visited Riga to participate in the forum for the EU and Central Asia "Green Bridge Forum - 2015". The foreign trade turnover of the Republic of Tajikistan with the Republic of Latvia in 2016 amounted to 6311.3 thousand US dollars9. Export - 5121.6 thousand US dollars, Import - 1189.7 thousand US dollars.
Cultural and humanitarian cooperation
One of the areas of bilateral cooperation in the humanitarian field is cooperation between the Latvian National Archives and the Main Archive Department under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan in order to clarify the Latvians repressed during the Stalinist repressions of the twentieth century, or Latvians who were on the territory of the Republic of Tajikistan.
On February 2, 2009, the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan adopted a decree to rename the "Peak Soviet Latvia" to "Peak Latvia"10.
Every year, within the framework of the European Law and Economy Program for the Eastern Partnership Countries, Central Asia and the Republic of Kosovo at the Riga Graduate School, citizens of Tajikistan travel to Latvia for 3 months to improve their qualifications. As part of the development of cultural relations with Latvia, on June 4-6, 2017, a film festival of the Visegrad Four countries and Latvia was held in Khujand with the participation of the ambassadors of Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Latvia in Tajikistan11.
Republic of Estonia [Эстонская Республика]
Diplomatic relations between the Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Estonia were established on February 23, 200612.
9 World Bank Data. Available at: https://databank.worldbank.org (accessed 03.01.2021). (In Russian).
10 Tajik-Latvian relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan. Available at: https://mfa.tj/ru/main/view/164/otnosheniya-tadzhikistana-s-latviei (accessed 07.01.2021). (In Russian).
11 Ibid.
12 Tajik-Estonian relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan. Available at: https://mfa.tj/ru/main/view/1386/otnosheniya-tadzhikistana-s-estoniei (accessed 06.01.2021). (In Russian).
On February 13, 2009, President of the Republic of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon paid an official visit to the Republic of Estonia. During the official visit Of the President of Tajikistan to Tallinn, an important document was signed - the Declaration on the Development of Bilateral Relations and Cooperation between the Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Estonia, this defines the main directions and principles of relations between the two friendly countries. In connection with the visit of the President of the Republic of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon to Estonia, 13 February 200913, the chamber of Commerce Estonia held by the Estonian-Tajik Business Forum with participation of representatives of 21 companies from Tajikistan, who arrived to establish in Estonia the partnership's business and find market.
Cultural and humanitarian cooperation
Cooperation in the Humanities, education, science, culture, and tourism has been developing at a slow pace in recent years in the interests of Tajikistan and Estonia. At their meeting in 2012 in Dushanbe, the foreign Ministers of Tajikistan and Estonia agreed that the Estonian Diplomatic School should allocate a quota for Tajik young diplomats to study for a year, and 7 Tajik diplomats have already studied at this school. Also, during this period, it was in 2012 that an Agreement on cooperation in the scientific field was signed between the Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan and the Academy of Sciences of Estonia. There is a cooperation Agreement between the Tajik National University and the University of Tartu14.
Today, many Tajik universities show significant interest in establishing contacts with Estonian educational institutions, in particular, the Russian-Tajik (Slavic) University and the Tajik Technological University. Estonia is home to a small number of Tajik citizens and compatriots who have adopted the citizenship of this state.
In Estonia, Tajik compatriots created their own society with the support of the Embassy of Tajikistan in 2012. This society was officially registered in November and started functioning. In 2013, members of this society, led by Amirkhon Parn, celebrated the international holiday of Navruz in Tallinn for the first time.
Trade and economic cooperation
The total volume of foreign trade of the Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Estonia in 2016 amounted to 843.8 thousand US dollars (import - 257.3 thousand US dollars 15, export - 586.5 thousand US dollars). For 9 months of 2017, the volume of trade decreased
13 Ibid.
14 Ibid.
15 World Bank Data. Available at: https://databank.worldbank (accessed 03.01.2021). (In Russian).
to 369.6 thousand US dollars (import - 369.6 thousand US dollars, export - 0 US dollars).
The Baltic States as a new direction of emigration from Tajikistan [Прибалтика как новое направление эмиграции из Таджикистана]
At the stage of colossal political transformations and socio-economic reforms, during the transition from a command economy to a market system, labor migration became a "lifeline" for many ordinary people, which helped them survive, find new sources of income, and adapt to life in a new socio-economic situation16. Thanks to labor migration, many people have been trained at the "Institute of Market Relations", have learned to live in new socio-economic conditions, when you need not just wait and rely on the state, but you have to earn money on your own [Akramov & Akramov, 2015].
It is not customary to classify the Baltic States as mono-ethnic states, even though most of the populations are Lithuanians, Latvians, and Estonians. The countries have long been open to all confessions and nationalities, and national minorities were an integral part of its society. The largest representatives of theirs today are Poles, Ukrainians, Belarusians, and Russians [Ryazantsev, 2007]. However, the Baltic countries also have many much smaller communities and diasporas. These include the Tajiks who appeared here not so long ago and today number several hundred people17.
The events of 2015-2016, the introduction of economic sanctions by Western countries against Russia, the depreciation of the ruble against the dollar, the rise in the cost of patent procedures and the complication of registration in Russia, as well as increased competition in a number of OECD countries for attracting labor resources in Central Asia, began to gradually reorient the flows of labor migrants from Tajikistan to new directions [Ryazantsev & Rakhmonov, 2020]. As a result, countries such as the Republic of Korea, Turkey, Japan, European countries, and the monarchies of the Persian Gulf have gradually become new points of attraction for labor and educational emigrants from Tajikistan. In these countries, new communities and migratory networks of Tajiks are being formed, which may become centers of attraction for new migrants from Central Asia soon18. This is proved
16 ILO (2010), Migration and Development in Tajikistan - Emigration, Return and Diaspora. 95 p.
17 Semenov D. Tajiks: "Lithuania has become a second home, but we dream of returning to our homeland", RU.DELFI.lt. Available at: https://bit.ly/3rVBd1T (accessed 03.01.2021).
18 ADK (2020), Strengthening support for labor migration in Tajikistan. Assessment and recommendations, Asian Development Bank. 86 p.
by the OECD statistics: in 2017, the role of the Baltic countries in attracting citizens of Tajikistan was 3 times higher than that of Kazakhstan (Fig. 1)19, 20. The inflow of migrants from Tajikistan to the Baltic countries in 2017 amounted to 22 people. After the accession of the Baltic countries to the Schengen agreement, citizens of Tajikistan need a Schengen visa to enter the Baltic countries.
Also, the Republic of Estonia has a quota system for foreign labor. In accordance with Estonian law, the annual quota for the entry of foreigners should not exceed 0.05 % of the number of permanent residents of Estonia, but this rule does not apply to citizens of the European Union, the United States and several other countries. This was one of the reasons why the number of Tajik
1 800 -,
migrants in the Estonian labor market in 2017 was not significantly higher.
Another channel of emigration from Tajikistan to the Baltic countries is refugees. During 2008-2018, 243 citizens of Tajikistan went to these countries as refugees (Fig. 2)21. Among the Baltic States, citizens of Tajikistan received the most refugee status in the Republic of Lithuania - 210 (about 86 %), in the Republic of Latvia - 24 (10 %), and in the Republic of Estonia 9 (4 %).
After the Republic of Tajikistan recognized the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) as a terrorist organization in 2015, IRPT members were forced to leave Tajikistan for security reasons. Most of them received refugee status in foreign countries, including the Baltic States. One of the members of the IRPT in the
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Sources: [stats.oecd.org; stat.gov.kz] / Источники: [stats.oecd.org; stat.gov.kz]
Fig. 1. Number of migrants from Tajikistan in some countries of the world in 2017 Рис. 1. Количество мигрантов из Таджикистана в некоторые страны мира в 2017 г.
19 OECD Data. Available at: https://stats.oecd.org/ (accessed 24.12.2020).
20 Data of the Committee on Statistics of the Ministry of National -
Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Available at: https://stat.gov.kz/ 21 UNHCR Data. Available at: https://www.unhcr.org/ (accessed
(accessed 24.12.2020). 24.12.2020).
210
■ Estonia [Эстония] (?) □ Lithuania [Литва] (2) □ Latvia [Латвия] (3)
Source: [www.unhcr.org] / Источники: [www.unhcr.org]
Fig. 2. Number of refugees from Tajikistan to the Baltic States in 2008-2018, people Рис. 2. Количество беженцев из Таджикистана в страны Балтии в 2008-2018 гг., чел.
Baltic States is Ilhomjon Yakubov, head Of the Association of Central Asian Migrants in the Republic of Lithuania, who lives in Kaunas. And it is he who can be called the person who "opened" Lithuania to political refugees from Tajikistan. According to him: "We were a very strong and organized party in Tajikistan. There was only one Islamic party in the entire Central Asian region. After the authorities in Tajikistan realized that the Islamic Renaissance Party had real support among the population, they began total pressure on the organization and persecution of activists. And in 2015, the authorities accused us of preparing for the revolution and declared the unification of a terrorist and extremist organization, after which mass arrests began. After that, it was decided to leave Tajikistan and apply for political asylum on the territory of the European Union. In June 2018, I received the status of a political refugee in the Republic of Lithuania and came here in January last year. My family is here too. My sons go to school here"22.
To date, tens of thousands of people have left Tajikistan for political reasons, 10,000 of them in Europe. In Lithuania, more than 80 people have already been granted asylum and about 180 more, according to Yakubov, are waiting for the decision of the Migration Department. Each of them has different stories and different destinies.
22 Semenov D. Tajiks: "Lithuania has become a second home, but we dream of returning to our homeland", RU.DELFI.lt. Available at: https://bit.ly/3rVBd1T (accessed 24.12.2020).
But all of them are united by one thing - love for their homeland and the desire to make it prosperous and free23.
It is also not easy for Tajik citizens to obtain citizenship of the Baltic States. For example, after the collapse of the USSR, ethnic Russians, Ukrainians, and Tajiks living in Estonia were not able to obtain citizenship of this country. Only those whose parents lived in the republic before 1940 became citizens of the country24. The rest receive citizenship through naturalization. Also, currently, to obtain the citizenship of the Baltic States, a citizen of Tajikistan must renounce his current citizenship, the Estonian government specified. To become an Estonian citizen, you must pass the state language exam and answer questions in Estonian on the basics of the Constitution and the citizenship law.
Remittances from the Baltic States to the economy of Tajikistan [Денежные переводы из стран Балтии в экономику Таджикистана]
After the civil war in Tajikistan, all factories, enterprises were destroyed. And, accordingly, remittances of migrants have become one of the main sources of income for the budget of Tajikistan [Khuseynova, 2013].
23 Ibid.
24 Estonia will grant citizenship to a native of Tajikistan, Sputnik Tajikistan. Available at: https://tj.sputniknews.ru/country/20190411/1028645766/ estonia-tajikistan-predostavila-grazhdanstvo-urozhenec.html (accessed 26.12.2020). (In Russian).
After the war, the number of unemployed people in Tajikistan increased, and there was a shortage of jobs. All these economic conditions of the country forced Tajik citizens to migrate to other countries (mainly to the CIS countries) to find work and provide for their families [Ryazantsev et al, 2020].
Tajikistan is extremely dependent on remittances of labor migrants, which provide a third of the country's GDP and are the main source of foreign exchange earnings in the country [Olimova, 2010].
According to the World Bank, in 2010-2018, Tajikistan's economy received about USD 26.7 billion from
Tajik migrants, which on average amounted to 35 % of Tajikistan's GDP (Table 1)25.
Based on the table, we can conclude that for 20102018, on average, about 70 % of remittances to Tajikistan come from Russia.
From the Baltic States in 2010-2018, Tajik migrants sent 91 million US dollars to the economy of Tajikistan. On average, 0.35 % of the total amount of remittances received in Tajikistan was made up of remittances from Tajik migrants from the Baltic States. Also, for the period
25 World Bank Data. Available at: https://databank.worldbank.org (accessed 04.01.2021).
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2010 2011 2012
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2 305,8
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0,52 0,52 0,53 0,29 0,26 0,27 0,27 0,27 0,18
Source: [databank.worldbank.org]
Таблица 1. Денежные переводы таджикских мигрантов из стран Балтии и России в экономику Таджикистана в 2010-2018 гг.
£ Объем денежных переводов в Таджикистан, млн долл. США Доля ВВП Таджикистана от денежных переводов, % Объем денежных переводов мигрантов из России в Таджикистан, млн долл. США Объем денежных переводов из стран Балтии в Таджикистан, млн долл. США Денежные переводы из стран Балтии в ВВП Таджикистана, % Доля денежных переводов из стран Балтии в общем объеме денежных переводов, полученных в Таджикистане, %
2010 2 305,8 36 1 336 12 0,19 0,52
2011 3 059,9 42 1 766 16 0,22 0,52
2012 3 739,5 42 2 159 20 0,23 0,53
2013 4 154,3 44 3 197 12 0,13 0,29
2014 3 853,5 37 2 972 10 0,1 0,26
2015 2 258,6 29 1 725 6 0,08 0,27
2016 1 867,4 27 1 419 5 0,07 0,27
2017 2 237,2 31 1 687 6 0,08 0,27
2018 2 183,3 29 1 626 4 0,05 0,18
Источник: [databank.worldbank.org]
Table 1
Remittances of Tajik migrants from the Baltic States and Russia to the economy of Tajikistan in 2010-2018
2010-2018, an average of 0.13 % of Tajikistan's GDP was made up of remittances from the Baltic States.
Based on the table, it can also be concluded that remittances of Tajik migrants to the economy of Tajikistan have begun to file since 2014. There was a big decline in 2016 (27 %) due to the currency crises in the Russian Federation [Nakamuro, 2010].
The dynamics and volumes of migrants' remittances allowed the government of the Republic of Tajikistan, starting in 2007, to abandon the use of international loans from the IMF allocated for stabilization purposes. The exception is the period of the global financial crisis, when the IMF allocated limited funds to support social payments to the population26.
Among the Baltic States for 2010-2018, Tajik migrants sent the largest amount of money from Lithuania 63 million US dollars (about 69 %), then Latvia 19 million US dollars (21 %) and Estonia 9 million US dollars (10 %) (Fig. 3)27.
The reasons for the reduction in the volume of remittances from the Baltic States and Russia during the crisis years are different: if for Russia this was primarily due
to a significant depreciation of the Russian ruble28, then the reduction in the volume of remittances from the Baltic States is largely due to a decrease in the scale of labor emigration from Tajikistan to the Baltic States during this period.
Results [Результаты]
For 51 years (before the collapse of the USSR in 1990), Tajikistan and the Baltic States lived under the same country - the USSR. The Republic of Tajikistan established diplomatic relations with the Republic of Lithuania in 1992, with the Republic of Estonia on 23 February 2006, and with the Republic of Latvia on 11 May 1994. Labor migration helped citizens of Russia, Belarus, Tajikistan, Ukraine and other countries to discover new opportunities and countries, forced them to learn foreign languages and culture. But the main thing is that on the territory of the former USSR, labor migration, willingly or unwillingly, with thin "socio-economic threads" tried to connect the new states that were gradually moving away from each other. After all, it is no secret that disintegration processes immediately after the collapse of the USSR became a dominant trend in our region, since in many countries the political elites have
20
15
10
in
EI
2010
n nln Jl
пПп ппп пИп .1.
2011 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year 2018 [Год]
5
0
Я Estonia [Эстония] Я Lithuania [Литва] □ Latvia [Латвия]
Source: [databank.worldbank.org] / Источник: [databank.worldbank.org]
Fig. 3. Volume of remittances of Tajik migrants from the Baltic States to Tajikistan in 2002-2018, million USD Рис. 3. Объем денежных переводов таджикских мигрантов из стран Балтии в Таджикистан в 2002-2018 гг., млн долл. США
26 Ulmasov R. Remittances of Tajik labor migrants: problems and opportunities. Available at: https://eurazvitiye.org/publication/20141218 (accessed 24.12.2020). (In Russian).
27 World Bank Data. Available at: https://databank.worldbank.org (accessed
24.12.2020).
28 Ryazantsev S.V. Labor migration from Central Asia to Russia in the context of the economic crisis.. Available at: https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/ trudovaya-migracziya-iz-czentralnoj-azii-v-rossiyu-v-kontekste-ekonomicheskogo-krizisa/ (accessed 24.12.2020). (In Russian).
taken a course not just towards isolation, but also towards open confrontation with Russia and each other.
The volume of foreign trade turnover of the Republic of Tajikistan with the Republic of Lithuania in 2017 amounted to 8.8 million US dollars (export - 0.5 million US dollars and imports - 8.3 million US dollars). In 2018, the volume of trade increased by 1.4 million US dollars (15.9 %) and amounted to 10.2 million US dollars (imports — 10.1 million US dollars and exports — 0.1 million US dollars). The foreign trade turnover of the Republic of Tajikistan with the Republic of Latvia in 2016 amounted to 6311.3 thousand US dollars, exports - 5121.6 thousand us dollars, imports -1189.7 thousand US dollars. The total volume of foreign trade of the Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Estonia in 2016 amounted to 843.8 thousand US dollars (import - 257.3 thousand US dollars, export - 586.5 thousand US dollars). For 9 months of 2017, the volume of trade decreased to 369.6 thousand US dollars (import - 369.6 thousand US dollars, export - 0 thousand US dollars).
The inflow of migrants from Tajikistan to the Baltic States in 2017 amounted to 22 people. In 2008-2018, 243 Tajik citizens went to these countries as refugees.
In general, from 2002 to 2019, the volume of remittances from Tajik migrants received in Tajikistan exceeded 33.86 billion US dollars. From the Baltic States in 2010-2018, Tajik migrants sent 91 million US dollars to the economy of Tajikistan.
Despite Tajikistan's attempts to regulate labor migration more and more actively based on bilateral agreements with the Baltic countries, Russia still remains attractive to Tajik labor migrants. So far, Russia's competitive advantages are the absence of a language barrier, the absence of the need to obtain a visa and work permit, a common mentality, and the prospects for obtaining citizenship.
Conclusion [Заключение]
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the newly independent states of the CIS and the Baltic States began to form national labor markets, which are characterized by both the import of labor and the export of national workers abroad. The opening of the borders of Tajikistan and the Baltic states after the collapse of the USSR and the spread of information about the possibilities of migration abroad against the background of declining living standards and the collapse of certain sectors of the economy forced some citizens to look for new opportunities for earning money. The formation of strategies for adaptation to new economic conditions has led to a wide spread of labor migration abroad - residents of Tajikistan and the Baltic states have become active participants in international labor exchange.
Every year, a small number of people leave the Republic of Tajikistan under official employment contracts, from 5 to 6 thousand people, who travel mainly to Russia, Central Asian countries, as well as OECD countries. In fact, the volume of labor migration is much higher, since most labor migrants get a job on their own and do not fall into these statistics [Jones et al, 2007].
After the Baltic States joined the European Union (Lithuania29 and Estonia30 - May 1, 2004, Latvia31 -August 27, 1991), the situation on the labor market of these countries changed radically - the unemployment rate dropped. An important factor in reducing unemployment was the increased outflow of the population to the West. And migrants from other former Soviet republics began to migrate to the labor markets of the Baltic countries. It should also be noted that some of the citizens of Tajikistan consider the Baltic countries as transit corridors for moving to more developed countries -the countries of Western Europe and Scandinavia.
Although Russia and Kazakhstan remain the main directions of labor emigration of Tajiks, emigration from Tajikistan to the Baltic countries is becoming more noticeable. New Tajik communities are being actively formed in the Baltic States, which may become networks of attraction for new migrants soon. Despite Tajikistan's attempts to regulate labor migration more and more actively based on bilateral agreements with the Baltic countries, Russia still remains attractive for Tajik labor migrants. So far, Russia's competitive advantages are the absence of a language barrier, the absence of the need to obtain a visa and work permit, a common mentality, and prospects for obtaining citizenship [Olimova & Olimov, 2007].
29 Lithuania's membership in the EU, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania. Available at: https://urm.lt/default/ru/vneschnaaaa-politika/litba-b-regione-i-b-mire/litba-b-ebropejskom-soyuze/chlenstbo-litbjy-b-es (accessed 24.12.2020). (In Russian).
30 Estonia in the European Union, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Estonia. Available at: https://vm.ee/ru/estoniya-v-evropeyskom-soyuze (accessed 24.12.2020). (In Russian).
31 Accession of Latvia to the European Union, Ministry of Foreign affairs of the Latvian Republic. Available at: https://www.mfa.gov.lv/ru/vneshnyaya-politika/latviya-v-evropejskom-soyuze/vstuplenie-latvii-v-evropeyskiy-soyuz (accessed 24.12.2020). (In Russian).
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Olimova S. (2010). The impact of labour migration on human capital: the case of Tajikistan // Migrations en Asie centrale et au Caucase. V. 26. No. 3. Pp. 181-197. https://doi.org/10.4000/ remi.5239.
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