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IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DISTRIBUTION AREA OF AJUGA
TURKESTANICA (REGEL) BRIG
Z.Z. Qosimov1*, A.N.Xujanov2**, A.Kh Keldiyorov3**, B.E.Kadyrov4**
junior researcher of the Institute of Botany of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan,
Correspondence: e-mail:
2Teacher of Department of Biology, Samarkand State University, Samarkand, Uzbekistan, Correspondence: 3professor Teacher of Department of Biology, Samarkand State University, Samarkand, Uzbekistan, SamGU is an independent researcher, Samarkand State University, Samarkand, Uzbekistan.
*Corresponding author email:: zikirmagistr@mail.ru E-mail addresses of co-authors: alisher khuianov(5)samdu.uz
Annotation. In this article, Ajuga turkestanica (Regel) Briq. scientific research on the current distribution of the plant and its impact on the impact of global climate change, i.e., evolution, identification of real and potential ranges, and forecasting future changes under the influence of climate change, as well as the impact of environmental and anthropogenic factors on the future of the species, area change data are given.
Key words; Ajuga turkestanica (Regel) Briq., plant, lig, Igm, current, maxent, gissar-darvaz.
Introduction
Climate change and the mechanisms of human activity have led to changes in ecosystem structure and biodiversity, reflecting the impact of nature on plant cover, including the evolutionary origin, ecological assessment, and geographical distribution of medicinal plant species [28, 29, 19, 20]. A slight increase in natural vibrations during glacial and interglacial periods and under the influence of natural factors leads to regional differences in biodiversity. A particular view of modern biodiversity today is in proportion to the last interglacial period (LIG, 120-140 thousand years) [4]. Climate change during the last ice age (LGM, 22,000 years) has led to the loss of several medicinal plant populations, a reduction in the range of endemic species that have survived to the present, and a decrease in
biodiversity [17, 32, 12]. Expansion of the natural habitats of terrestrial plant species is declining as a result of postglacial climatic temperature increases. The global level of such climate is affected by the increase in air temperature, especially the distribution of endemic medicinal plants that are in danger of extinction [7, 3, 2]. An increase in air temperature causes the distribution centers of medicinal plant species to gradually shift north or south, with natural populations of the species migrating to higher latitudes and altitudes [22, 23]. According to the results of scientific research, scientists using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) program to date have been able to predict how sudden changes in climate will affect the spatial appearance of vegetation [15]. Therefore, research on modelling
(forecasting) potential habitats of economically important plant species is becoming increasingly popular [33]. In particular, research is being conducted to model the geographical distribution of many promising endemic and medicinal species in the flora of Uzbekistan and to predict future changes under the influence of various factors [33, 10, 11]. Ajuga turkestanica (Regel) Brig. During the LGM period, the population distribution status was relatively low, and as a result of climate change and air temperature normalization, it can be observed that the range of this species expanded slightly in the recent past (1970-2000 y) and CURRENT (2000-2020 y) [26]. However, land development as a result of climate change, rising air temperatures, natural factors, and anthropogenic factors has led to a sharp decline in the range of this species in the future according to climatic scenarios (RCP2.6-2070 y and RCP8.5-2070 y) [26]. The decline of such species is steadily increasing. Of the 112432 species listed in the World Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) [8], 314 species are listed in the Red Data Book of Uzbekistan [25], of which 18% are endangered medicinal plants. The results of the research show that the continuous acceleration of industrialization is increasing the natural climatic temperature [13]. In particular, the sharp rise in climate in the territory of Uzbekistan requires research to reduce the risk of extinction of endemic and medicinal plants on the basis of strict requirements for their habitats [9, 14]. This article is aimed at determining the reserves, evolution, and real and potential ranges of some rare, raw, and medicinal plant species in the flora of Uzbekistan
and predicting future changes under the influence of climate change.
An increase in air temperature causes the distribution centers of medicinal plant species to gradually shift north or south, with natural populations of the species migrating to higher latitudes and altitudes [24]. According to the results of scientific research, scientists using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) program to date have been able to predict how sudden changes in climate will affect the spatial appearance of vegetation [15]. Therefore, research on modelling (forecasting) potential habitats of economically important plant species is becoming increasingly popular [33]. In particular, research is being conducted to model the geographical distribution of many promising endemic and medicinal species in the flora of Uzbekistan and to predict future changes under the influence of various factors [33]. Ajuga turkestanica (Regel) Brig. During the LGM period, the population distribution status was relatively low, and as a result of climate change and air temperature normalization, it can be observed that the range of this species expanded slightly in the recent past (1970-2000 y) and CURRENT (2000-2. Research methods.
2. Research methods.
2.1. Research area
Scientific research on the plant A. turkestanica was carried out in the southern regions of Uzbekistan (southwestern Pomiroloy). This area is part of the western Hissar and Gissar-Darvaz districts of the mountainous Central Asian province in the botanical-geographical zoning scheme of Uzbekistan [1, 27]. Administratively, these areas correspond to the
mountainous areas of the Kashkadarya and Surkhandarya regions.
2.2. Taxonomy of the research object and its application in medicine
Ajuga L. is a perennial semishrub of the Lamiaceae family, with more than 300 species worldwide. As a tincture from plant organs in diseases of the cardiovascular, musculoskeletal, and digestive systems [34].
2.3. Collection and sorting of research materials
The study materials were compiled as a result of targeted field surveys conducted between 2018 and 2021. The geographical coordinates of the species, which reflect the growth points under natural conditions, were determined in Google Earth (Pro) and MAPS. ME (2.0). In this study, a total of more than 30 geographical coordinates were selected for use.
2.4. Bioclimatic modelling
The main determinants of species distribution are climate variables, which are used to model plant distribution [18,16]. LIG, LGM, current and future climate data were used from the WorldClim 2.1 (2.5-minute spatial resolution) database
(www.worldc221im.org) [30]. Modern climate data are based on monthly meteorological data from various weather stations around the world from 1950 to 2000 [31] 6 and RCP8.5) [11, 10].
The choice of environmental factors is based on important variables of plant growth and development [31]. In the modelling, bio5, bio6, and biol2 factors were first selected, correlated (repeated), and performed on the basis of the most important environmental factors with a value greater than 0.8 [21]. In the
final step, the inflation factor difference (IOF) for all factors is analysed, and factors with an IOF value greater than 10 are selected. As a result, seven variables of bioclimatic factors were formed [22].
2.5. Modelling, optimization, and evaluation
These scientific studies are based on MaxEnt (3.4.1) [5] software LIG, LGM, and 4 future scenarios (RCP2.6-2050 y, RCP2.6-2070 y, RCP8.5-2050y, RCP8.5-2070 y). In predicting the probability of the potential geographic distribution of Turkestanica, the SDM (species distribution modelling) model was used to optimize and evaluate the status of the species (RCP2.6-2070 y and RCP8.5-2070 y) according to the scenarios. MaxEnt estimated the area in which the species could be propagated in the range from 0 (lowest probability distribution) to 1 (highest probability distribution) [5]. In the model, 75% of the species existence data were used as training, and 25% were used as test data [5].
2.6. Basic Distribution and Displacement
In the ArcGIS 10.6.1 program, changes in species habitats were modified using zonal geometric indicators (Fig. 1). LGM compared the corresponding and differentiated sites between present and future compatible habitats [6].
r~
5 \
i. 11 / E
Figure 1. Distribution map of Ajuga turkestanica.
INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL "MODERN BIOLOGY AND GENETICS" 2023 №2 (4) ISSN: 2181-3396 3. Results
3.1 Approximate accuracy of the model
The performance quality of the model was evaluated according to the AUC (area under the curve). In predicting the areas where Ajuga turkestanica can spread in the Surkhandaiya and Kashkadarya regions, the model's performance accuracy averaged AUC=0.988 (study data) and AUC=0.962 (test data), and in all three cases, RP=0.5 (standard deviation) was very low and uniform. (Tab.l). This shows that the model worked with high accuracy (Fig. 2).
Table 1
Model performance accuracy
Periods AUC AUC RP
(traini ng) (test) (rand om predic tion)
Current 0.986 0.963 0.5
(2000-2020)
RCP 2.6 0.988 0.970 0.5
(2070)
RCP 8.5 0.989 0.962 0.5
(2070)
1970-2000 0.989 0.965 0.5
LMG (22) 0.987 0.949 0.5
Average 0.988 0.962 0.5
3.2 Possible climate distribution in the future
LMG (22) shows the approximate growth distribution of Ajuga turkestanica in terms of the ice age, history (1970-2000), current (2000-2020), and future (2070) climate scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 (Fig. 2). The results showed the existing habitats. In the interglacial period (LMG (22)), it was 4275 km2 (±25 km2)
Figure 2. Maps of A. turkestanica growth area in all periods
3.3 Contribution analysis of environmental variables
(Figure 2); in the recent past (1970-2000), it was 4425 km2 (±25 km2) (Figure 2); and in the CURRENT period, it was 6350 km2 (±25 km2) (Fig. 2), RCP 2.6 (2070) 6158 km2 (±25 km2) (Fig. 2), and RCP 8.5 (2070) had a value of 5775 km2 (±25 km2) (Fig. 2). According to the analytical results, in the future, the potential growth areas of this species will expand, and the growth points will shift to the south.
Based on the results of the analysis, we selected plant growth heights and seven main bioclimatic parameters (availability probability n>0.2). The top seven positive climatic indicators were returned to the Ajuga turkestanica forecast results. Isothermal (bio3) from 2.9 to 9.5 (2.9°C-9.5°C), seasonality of temperature (bio4) from 5 to 52.2 (5°C-52.2°C), annual temperature range (bio7)
1.4 from 8.6, average temperature in the hottest quarter (biolO) from 1 to 4.9, maximum humidity month precipitation
9
(biol3) from 3.7 mm to 75.9 mm, precipitation for the month with high rainfall (biol4) 1.1 mm to 4.3 mm, and seasonality of precipitation (biol5) from 1.7 mm to 24.2 mm (Fig. 3).
Figure 3. Contribution of climate indicators
3.4. Collection of raw materials and their storage in the research area
A. turkestanica raw material is usually harvested in early July during
mass flowering. At this time, only the flowering leafy tops of the branches are harvested. The collected raw material is dried in well-ventilated attics or under a canopy, spread on paper or cloth with a thickness of 5-7 cm, and periodically rotated. The raw material can also be dried in 35°C special dryers. The finished raw material is stored in bags with a net weight of 5-15 kg and crushed-in bags weighing 10-30 kg. Before packaging, the raw material is additionally processed.
However, in recent years, natural populations of A.turkestanica have suffered miserably due to the strong exploitation of wild densely growing areas. With this in mind, it is recommended to temporarily ban the collection of raw materials of this valuable, rare plant to create promising work on the creation and cultivation of artificial plantations.
Table 2
Productivity of Ajuga turkestanica in the study area
Productivity
Regional Total Area Average yield, Biological reserve, t Exploitation reserve, t. Possibility of annual collection of raw
t/ha materials, t.
Surkhandarya 1,3 0,36 0,468 0,374 0,299
Kashkadarya 1,8 0,499 0,898 0,718 0,574
Total 3,1 0,859 1,366 1,092 0,873
Gratitude
Conclusion
This article was financially and materially supported by the Ministry of Innovative Development of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Our research project was conducted at the Laboratory of Cadastre and Monitoring of Rare Plant Species. We also thank an anonymous reviewer for reading the manuscript and providing valuable comments.
In this study, the performance quality of the model according to the value of AUC (area under the curve) in the Surkhandarya and Kashkadarya regions shows the areas where Ajuga turkestanica can be spread.
Ajuga turkestanica predicts that the top seven climatic indicators are positive (bio3) from 2.9 to 9.5 (2.9°C-9.5°C), seasonal temperature (bio4) from
5 to 52.2 (5°C-52.2°C), annual temperature range (bio7) from 1.4 to 8.6, average temperature in the hottest quarter (biolO) from 1 to 4.9, maximum humidity month precipitation (biol3) from 3.7 mm to 75.9 mm, precipitation. The main factors are precipitation (biol4) from 1.1 mm to 4.3 mm and seasonality of precipitation (biol5) from 1.7 mm to 24.2 mm for the month with the highest amount.
As a result, these data provide the basis for Ajuga turkestanica to adapt to future climate change and develop strategies for habitat change.
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