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Tillakhodjaeva Zukhrakhon Djakhongirovna, Geography senior researcher, Hydrometeorological Research Institute, Uzhydromet E-mail: tilla.79@mail.ru; zuhrajahon79@gmail.com
IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER SURFACE AND NOSOGEOGRAPHIC SITUATION OF THE TASHKENT REGION
Abstract. Using nosogeographic and multidimensional analysis, it is possible to identify the main risks of growth of diseases diversityin the Tashkent region, which will allow to identify the main causes of diseases and to develop effective measures to reduce the risk of an increase in the number of diseases of the population. Keywords: climate change, rivers, surface waters, risk, nozogeography, agglomeration, disease.
Due to climate change, there is an increase in water deficit, especially in rural areas. The chemical composition of the surface water used will inevitably affect the health of the rural population. The article outlines the approach to the use of nosogeographic methods for assessing the risk to the health of the rural population. Surface waters of the Tashkent region are a whole complex ofsurface waters - rivers, irrigation canals, drainage collector canals, and drains of industrial enterprises. The growth of infectious diseases, including acute intestinal infections, is due to an increase in temperature, changes in the nature of precipitation, and seasonal fluctuations. The article proposes a noso-geographical method for assessing the chemical composition of surface waters on the example of the Tashkent region.
Observed climate change and aridification of the Asian continent will inevitably increase the burden on surface water, particularly in terms of their deficit, and as a consequence, improve re-use and saturation with various chemical elements, often of anthropogenic origin, which ultimately will lead to inevitable consequences for the health of the population.
Climate change is likely can have a very large impact on water resources and sanitation in those cases when there was a real decrease in water and water-supplies. Episodes of drought cause an increase in the concentration of pathogenic microorganisms in reservoirs where raw water is stored.In addition, the scarcity of water cause necessitates the use of sources of fresh water with poorer quality, often, rivers that are polluted. Increasingof quantity precipitation causes floods, erosion and flooding of sewerage systems. All of these factors contribute to the increased incidence of acute intestinal infections.
It is known that there is a close interaction between surface and groundwater. Often in rural areas there is no unified system of water supply. In the household often used well water. In the highlands population use water springs and rivers for their needs.
In connection with the observed climate changes that directly lead to the risk of increasing the number of diseases related to hydrochemical changes in surface watercourses and changes in the hydrological regime, there are also high risks of growth of general morbidity.
Analysis was conducted on the example of Tashkent region in (Fig 1). On the territory of Tashkent region there is not only the Tashkent city agglomeration, which is a cluster of settlements united in a complex multi-component dynamic system with intensive production, transport and cultural ties, but also a vast agricultural land.
Significant anthropogenic impact on the environment invariably leads to risks of changes in health status of the population who are living in the area. Urban agglomerations with industrial production is confined to surface waters (rivers, channels), which are the source of their existence. With the growth of agglomerations and growing water demand that lead to higher dumping used water into rivers and canals.
Agricultural production and industrial discharges are the main source of pollution in surface water. The main cause of surface water pollution is the discharge into water bodies an untreated or inadequately treated sewage, by industrial enterprises, utilities and discharges from agricultural land. The mineral salts leached from irrigated lands, often uncontrollably using the pesticides, phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers pollute the water bodies. Excess chemicals are poisoning the flora and fauna of reservoirs.
Chemical substances can accumulate in agricultural products of crop and livestock production that poses a threat to the health of the person who is consuming the products.
Most agricultural production is sold directly within the Tashkent region, which has a significant impact on the health status of the population.
Property of watercourses to self-clean due to ongoing biological processes can self-clean, but that is still not enough. The accumulation or the excess of MPC (maximum permissible concentrations) of pollutants in the water affect the food chain, the final link of which is the human body.
The accumulation of various chemical elements or their compounds, especially carcinogenic oneshave a harmful effect on the human body and lead to deteriorationin his health.
The most significant impact on the risks associated with the health of the population is the change in the hydrochemical
composition of water supply sources, water and air pollution Water for domestic livestock is almost always water used
by industrial discharges, direct discharges of waste water in from open rivers, canals and collectors, which ultimately en-
agriculture into open water.
sures the entry of individual chemical elements in the human body, and therefore has an impact on health.
Figure 1. Analysis was conducted on the example of Tashkent region of Uzbekistan
In addition, watering with surface waters the fruit plants can lead to the accumulation in them of certain chemical elements, which can lead to an excessive content in fruits, and also with insufficient control over the production, to subsequent get into the human body.
For the analysis of risks to public health, were conducted nosogeographic studies of the Tashkent region on statistical materials in relation to administrative areas for a long-term observation period. As the medical statistics, the data were used on the indicators of the general incidence, which were recorded at medical posts in the case of complaints thatfell ill. In our case, nosogeography is used as a tool for the analysis and comparison of incidences, depending on the chemical composition of surface waters. An analysis of the links between medio-biological factors and characteristics of the geographical environment is carried out by two main methods:
cartographic and mathematical. The first is the comparison of maps with medical-biological, and geographic information (conjugate analysis of different types of maps); based on the results of the conjoint analysis, nozogeographical maps are constructed, which are often may have a value for public health.
Mathematical methods (paired and multiple correlation, regression and information-logical analysis etc.) allow to determine the degree of correlation between the spread of the disease and environmental factors (natural and socio-economic), in our case is using the concentration of some chemical elements in surface watercourses that flowing through the territory of the investigated districts in Tashkent region.
In the result of comprehensive study revealed that the area most liability at risk of growth of general morbidity of the population (maximum risk) in Tashkent and Zangiota,
Yangiyul andChinaz areas, the average risk of morbidity in Kibray, Yukorichirchik, Urtachirchik, Kuyichirchik, Akkur-gan, Buka, Pskent, Bekabad, less risk in Bostanlik, akhangaran-
sky, Parkent districts. In (Fig. 2) had shownnozogeographical map of the distribution of general morbidity on districts of Tashkent region.
Figure 2. Distribution of the number of overall morbidity by districts in Tashkent region between 2005-2015. The density of the points on the territory corresponds to the higher number of registered cases of appeals to medical institutions
This circumstance is due to the geographical location of the districts. Mountain and foothill areas remote from industrial areas and areas dense agricultural of using and located in the upper reaches of the rivers. In the middle and lower reaches of the rivers Chirchik and Akhangaran population is forced to use water from sources subjected to the saturation of the chemical elements, although not exceeding the MPN. In areas located in the vicinity of Tashkent agglomeration and industrial centers the risk of morbidity is increases from concentrations of harmful substances not only in water sources, but perhaps and atmospheric air.
The change in the concentration of chemical elements along the length of the river Chirchik.Against the background of increasing the total concentration of chemical elements in the water downstream of the river, notably a significant in-creasinC in the concentration of chlorine, magnesium, sodium. Due to the discharges from industrial facilities and runoff from agricultural fields.
Growth increase the risk of morbidity in the areas which are situated in the lower part of the basin of the Chirchik river, may explain the high content in water of the chemical elements of anthropogenic origin. However nozogeographical map shows that the areas located in the upper part of the river basin, also observed elevated values of total morbidity in the rural population. This fact can be explained by the fact that in drinking water there is a lack of necessary for the overall health of some chemical elements.
The territory of Tashkent region faces tremendous anthropogenic pressure on surface waters, in terms of their multiple and re-using, especially in uncontrolled discharges of return waters and industrial-domestic sewers.
It should be noted that health services, monitoring the quality of water sources, hygiene and environmental monitoring in the Tashkent region is at a high level, but nozogeographical study and identification of possible impact of chemical composition of surface waters on the health of the
population will allow improve situation.Application nozo-geographical analysis and identification of possible linkages of the chemical composition of surface waters and public health will allow us to monitor and predict the spread of certain types of diseases and apply preventive measures to reduce the risk of side effects, and as a result increase the level of environmental safety.
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Defining the territorial distribution of incidence it is possible to conduct special medical research to identify the main reasons for the emergence and spread of certain types of diseases and determine their causes and develop methods of their elimination.
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Figure 3. Changes in the content of chemical elements along the length of the river Chirchik
On the basis of nozogeographical analysis and using the methodology of multivariate analysis can to identify the main risks of growth of various types of diseases in the territory, allows to identify the main causes and to develop effective measures on reducing the risk of occurrence of diseases of the population.
The obtained results of the scientific analysis will allow extending the experience on the other areas, as the global and national level there is increasing process of urbanization and intensification of land use for production of different products.
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3. Myagkov S. V., Dergacheva I., Klimov S., Z. D. Tillahodjaev "Assessment of the impact of pollution of the watercourses on morbidity of the population." // The Ecological Bulletin Of Uzbekistan,- No. 2(178),- Tashkent. 2016. - P. 31-34.
4. Shaumarov T. S., Myagkov S. V andetc. Assessment of the impact climate change on health of population, vulnerability and adaptation of the health system in Uzbekistan. UNDP, T. 2011. - 1673 p.
