Научная статья на тему 'Fundamentals of developing targeted integrative program for the growth of the rural labour market in labour-surplus regions'

Fundamentals of developing targeted integrative program for the growth of the rural labour market in labour-surplus regions Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

CC BY
1
1
i Надоели баннеры? Вы всегда можете отключить рекламу.
Ключевые слова
rural labour market / program principles / program sections / program stages / information support / model support / software / financial resources. / қишлоқ меҳнат бозори / дастур тамойиллари / дастур бўлимлари / дастур босқичлари / ахборот таъминоти / моделлар таъминоти / дастурлар таъминоти / молиявий ресурслар.

Аннотация научной статьи по экономике и бизнесу, автор научной работы — Kholmuminov Shayzоk Rakhmatovich

The article proposes a methodology for drawing up a targeted comprehensive program for the development of the rural labour market (TCPDRLM) in labour-surplus regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the conditions of a socially-oriented market economy. The article also proposes interrelated basic principles for the development of TCPDRLM: target orientation, complexity, conjugation, concreteness, variance, reality, optimality, priority, delimitation of powers and functions, limit, targeting, controllability and interconnectedness. On the basis of the above principles, interrelated sections of the development of this program are recommended in this work: analytical and problematic, target, scientific and methodological, information, model, software, resource, organizational and economic, summary, legal. The article determines the main stages of the development of TCPDRLM on the basis of the above-mentioned principles and section: goal setting for the development of the rural labour market (RLM), development of methodological and model devices for analyzing and forecasting the state of RLM, collection of statistical, marketing and sociological information of RLM, а compilation of the subprogram complex of TCPDRLM, approval of the compiled program for the development of RLM, creation of organizational, economic and legal mechanisms for managing the implementation and adjustment of the program.

i Надоели баннеры? Вы всегда можете отключить рекламу.
iНе можете найти то, что вам нужно? Попробуйте сервис подбора литературы.
i Надоели баннеры? Вы всегда можете отключить рекламу.

Ишчи кучи ортиқча бўлган ҳудудларда қишлоқ меҳнат бозори ривожланиши бўйича мақсадли комплекс дастурини ишлаб чиқиш асослари

Ушбу мақолада ижтимоий йўналтирилган бозор иқтисодиёти шароитида меҳнат ресурслари билан кўп таъминланган ҳудудларда қишлоқ меҳнат бозорини ривожлантиришнинг мақсадли комплекс дастурини (ҚМБРМКД) ишлаб чиқиш методологияси таклиф этилган. Мақолада, шунингдек, ҚМБРМКД ривожланишининг ўзаро боғлиқ асосий тамойиллари илгари сурилди: мақсадли йўналиш, мураккаблик, аниқлик, реаллик, оптималлик, устуворлик, ваколатлар ва функцияларни чегаралаш, мақсадлилик, бошқарувчанлик ҳамда ўзаро боғлиқлик. Мазкур ишда юқоридаги тамойиллар асосида ушбу дастурни ишлаб чиқишнинг ўзаро боғлиқ бўлимлари, яъни таҳлилий ва муаммоли, мақсадли, илмий-услубий, ахборот, модель, дастурий таъминот, ресурс, ташкилий-иқтисодий, умумлаштирувчи, ҳуқуқий бўлимлари тавсия этилган. Мақолада юқорида айтиб ўтилган тамойиллар ва бўлимлар асосида ҚМБРМКДни ривожлантиришнинг асосий босқичлари белгиланди: қишлоқ меҳнат бозорини ривожлантириш мақсадларини шакллантириш; таҳлил қилиш учун услубий ва намунавий воситалар ишлаб чиқиш; ҚМБ ҳолатини прогноз қилиш; ҚМБнинг статистик, маркетинг ва социологик маълумотларини тўплаш, ҚМБРМКД кичик дастурлар мажмуасини тузиш; ҚМБни ривожлантириш бўйича тузилган дастурни тасдиқлаш; бошқарувнинг ташкилий, иқтисодий ва ҳуқуқий механизмларини яратиш, дастурни амалга ошириш ва ўзгартиришлар киритиш.

Текст научной работы на тему «Fundamentals of developing targeted integrative program for the growth of the rural labour market in labour-surplus regions»

d ) https://dx.doi.org/10.36522/2181-9637-2022-2-1 UDC: 330.101.54

FUNDAMENTALS OF DEVELOPING TARGETED INTEGRATIVE PROGRAM FOR THE GROWTH OF THE RURAL LABOUR MARKET IN LABOUR-SURPLUS REGIONS

Kholmuminov Shayzok Rakhmatovich,

Doctor of Economics, Professor, Tashkent State University of Economics, e-mail: shayzakkholmuminov@gmail.com

Abstract. The article proposes a methodology for drawing up a targeted comprehensive program for the development of the rural labour market (TCPDRLM) in labour-surplus regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the conditions of a socially-oriented market economy. The article also proposes interrelated basic principles for the development of TCPDRLM: target orientation, complexity, conjugation, concreteness, variance, reality, optimality, priority, delimitation of powers and functions, limit, targeting, controllability and interconnectedness. On the basis of the above principles, interrelated sections of the development of this program are recommended in this work: analytical and problematic, target, scientific and methodological, information, model, software, resource, organizational and economic, summary, legal. The article determines the main stages of the development of TCPDRLM on the basis of the above-mentioned principles and section: goal setting for the development of the rural labour market (RLM), development of methodological and model devices for analysing and forecasting the state of RLM, collection of statistical, marketing and sociological information of RLM, а compilation of the subprogram complex of TCPDRLM, approval of the compiled program for the development of RLM, creation of organizational, economic and legal mechanisms for managing the implementation and adjustment of the program.

Keywords: rural labour market, program principles, program sections, program stages, information support, model support, software, financial resources.

ИШЧИ КУЧИ ОРТИКЧА БУЛГАН ^УДУДЛАРДА КИШЛОК МЕ^НАТ БОЗОРИ РИВОЖЛАНИШИ БУЙИЧА МАКСАДЛИ КОМПЛЕКС ДАСТУРИНИ ИШЛАБ ЧИКИШ АСОСЛАРИ

Холмуминов Шайзок Ра^матович,

и^тисодиёт фанлари доктори, профессор,

Тошкент давлат и^тисодиёт университети

Introduction

An effective tool for substantiating the main measures for the development of TCPDRLM in labour-surplus regions in the conditions of the functioning of a socially oriented market economy is a targeted comprehensive program, which has been relatively little studied in the methodological aspect. Most of the studies on this issue are devoted to regulation of the financial and economic system at the republican and regional levels [1-5; 9-14]. The problems of program measures for the development of the labour market, unemployment, the proportions of supply and demand for labour, especially in rural areas, where more than 64.5% of the unemployed able-bodied population and at least 15% of the unemployed in the laboursurplus regions of the Central Asia are not adequately described [8, p. 5].

In this regard, we propose a methodology for compiling the TCPDRLM. It allows developing short- and long-term measures to reduce the demand and supply of labour in the sectors of agricultural production, meet the growing need for human labour and jobs in the sectors of industrial processing, services and in the areas of individual labour, achieve a rational proportion between the demand and supply of labour and employment structure, the formation of professional national personnel; effective development of the infrastructure of the employment

service; ensuring reliable social protection of unemployed persons, creating organizational, economic and legal mechanisms for regulating market relations for hiring workers in order to improve the wellbeing of the population.

This program is linked to the state employment policy, macroeconomic correlations between the level of employment and investment activity, availability of jobs and labour resources, etc.

Materials and methods

The purpose of this article is to develop the methodology of the Central Committee for the Development of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the labour-surplus regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan, which enables compilation of a set of short- and long-term measures to form rational employment and achieve a minimum level of unemployment. The main objective of this study is to develop organizational and economic mechanisms for implementation of this program.

One of the main tools for regulating and forecasting the development of the RLM is a targeted comprehensive program in the context of setting of market relations based on hiring of labour in rural areas. It is a mechanism to exert state and local government bodies on the RLM in the context of market-based methods of regulating socioeconomic processes. It defines aggregate long and short-term measures with their respective financial, organizational and other support, the purpose of implementation of which is to ensure rational employment of labour resources and formation of an acceptable level of unemployment and its social protection.

The development of the TCPDRLM is based on the following fundamental principles:

- target orientation (provisional setting of goals of the state employment policy in rural regions, towards achievement of which the activities of the Central Committee for Development of Labour and Social Development should be focused);

- complexity (the whole set of problems associated with the development of RLM in the region);

Аннотация. Ушбу мацолада ижтимоий йуналтирилган бозор ицтисодиёти шароити-да мехнат ресурслари билан куп таъминланган худудларда цишлоц мехнат бозорини ривож-лантиришнинг мацсадли комплекс дастурини (КМБРМКД) ишлаб чициш методологияси так-лиф этилган. Мацолада, шунингдек, КМБРМКД ривожланишининг узаро боглиц асосий тамойил-лари илгари сурилди: мацсадли йуналиш, мурак-каблик, аницлик, реаллик, оптималлик, устувор-лик, ваколатлар ва функцияларни чегаралаш, мацсадлилик, бошцарувчанликхамда узаро боглиц-лик. Мазкур ишда юцоридаги тамойиллар асоси-да ушбу дастурни ишлаб чицишнинг узаро боглиц булимлари, яъни тахлилий ва муаммоли, мацсадли, илмий-услубий, ахборот, модель, дастурий таъминот, ресурс, ташкилий-ицтисодий, умум-лаштирувчи, хуцуций булимлари тавсия этилган. Мацолада юцорида айтиб утилган тамойиллар ва булимлар асосида КМБРМКДни ривож-лантиришнинг асосий босцичлари белгиланди: цишлоц мехнат бозорини ривожлантириш мац-садларини шакллантириш; тахлил цилиш учун услубий ва намунавий воситалар ишлаб чициш; КМБ холатини прогноз цилиш; КМБнинг статистик, маркетинг ва социологик маълумотларини туплаш, КМБРМКД кичик дастурлар мажмуасини тузиш; КМБни ривожлантириш буйича тузилган дастурни тасдицлаш; бошцарувнинг ташкилий, ицтисодий ва хуцуций механизмларини яратиш, дастурни амалга ошириш ва узгартиришлар ки-ритиш.

Калит сузлар: цишлоц мехнат бозори, дас-тур тамойиллари, дастур булимлари, дастур босцичлари, ахборот таъминоти, моделлар таъминоти, дастурлар таъминоти, молиявий ресурслар.

ОСНОВЫ РАЗРАБОТКИ ЦЕЛЕВОЙ

КОМПЛЕКСНОЙ ПРОГРАММЫ РАЗВИТИЯ СЕЛЬСКОГО РЫНКА ТРУДА

В ТРУДОИЗБЫТОЧНЫХ РЕГИОНАХ

Холмуминов Шайзок Рахматович,

доктор экономических наук, профессор, Ташкентский государственный экономический университет

Аннотация. В статье предлагается методология составления целевой комплексной программы развития сельского рынка труда (ЦКПРСРТ) в трудоизбыточных регионах Республики Узбекистан в условиях функционирования социально ориентированной рыночной экономики. В статье предлагаются взаимосвязанные основные принципы разработки ЦКПРСРТ: целевая ориентация, комплексность, сопряженность, конкретность, вариантность, реальность,

оптимальность, приоритетность, разграничение полномочий и функций, предельность, адресность, управляемость и взаимосвязанность. В данной работе на основе вышеперечисленных принципов рекомендуются взаимосвязанные разделы разработки данной программы, а именно: аналитико-проблемный, целевой, научно-методический, информационный, модельный, программный, ресурсный, организационно-экономический, сводный, правовый. Также на основе вышеотмеченных принципов и разделов определяются основные этапы разработки ЦКПРСРТ: формирование целей развития сельского рынка труда (СРТ), разработка методического и модельного аппаратов анализа и прогноза состояния СРТ, сбор статистической, маркетинговой и социологической информации СРТ, составление подпрограммного комплекса ЦКПРСРТ, утверждение составленной программы развития СРТ, создание организационно-экономического и правового механизмов управления реализацией и корректировкой программы.

Ключевые слова: сельский рынок труда, принципы программы, разделы программы, этапы программы, информационное обеспечение, модельное обеспечение, программное обеспечение, финансовые ресурсы.

- conjugation (planned measures for regulating the development of the rural labour market are coupled with other measures developed and implemented within the framework of economic, social and demographic policy in the region);

- specificity (specific socio-economic, organizational and legal conditions in the region and indicators affecting the level of development of the RLM);

- multi-variance (a possibility of correcting or replacing measures when the situation on RLM changes);

- reality (planned measures are based on the feasibility of their financial, material, technical and organizational support on the basis of their own (mainly) and attracted (if necessary) resources;

- optimality (optimization calculations obtained as a result of approbation of a complex of economic and mathematical models and balance methods using statistical, marketing and sociological information most

accurately characterize strategic measures for the optimal development of RLM);

- priority (the activities of the TCPDRLM, which in conditions of limited financial resources are to be ranked according to the degree of urgency of their implementation);

- delineation of powers and functions of various structures in the field of human resources management in the village;

- limits of the permissible natural level of rural unemployment;

- targeting (measures envisaged by the TCPDRLM, and corresponding resources are divided according to the structures responsible for their implementation);

- manageability (a special management system for the development and implementation of TCPDRLM is being created);

- interconnectedness of all sections and activities of the program.

The program consists of the following interrelatedsections:analyticalandproblematic, target, scientific and methodological, information, model and computational, software, resource, organizational and economic, summary and legal (Figure).

The first section consists of two subsections: analytical and problematic. The analytical subsection features current situation of the functioning of RLM, as well as those factors that affected dynamics of the indicators of demand and supply of labour and employment at the stage of transition to the market relations and, thereby, their relationship with various aspects of the economic, social and demographic development in rural areas. The situation in the RLM affects primarily the level of employment of the working-age population, its distribution by branches of agricultural industry, industrial processing and services, and the sphere of individual processing and services, the sphere of individual labour, its classification in the market conditions.

Distribution of the employed by enterprises of various sizes, the level of mobility of the rural working-age population, as well as the state of financial resources of a rural region,

Figure. Diagram of the relationships between the main sections of TCPDRLM*

* This figure was compiled by the author

the income of enterprises, organizations, and wages of workers involved in fund raising for promoting employment of population are important in terms of this program development. The article uses reporting inter-sectoral balances to analyse the ratio of living costs and materialized labour, the demographic and professional structure of the rural population, the level of its well-being and some other aspects, which largely reflect regional features of this market' development.

The second part of this section identifies the main urgent problems arising in setting measures for the RLM development. These include: establishing appropriate proportion between the labour demand and supply;

ensuring rational employment; raising professional and qualification level of unemployed able-bodied citizens, etc.

The target section of the program was formulated on the basis of the "tree of goals" to the development of the RLM: improving financial well-being of the rural population (0), achieving rational employment (0.1), ensuring rational proportion between the demand and supply of labour (0.1.2), reducing the demand and supply of labour forces in the sectors of agricultural industry (0.1.2.3), provision of jobs in the sectors of industrial processing, services, quality in the spheres of individual labour (0.1.2.3.4), ensuring effective operation of organizational,

economic and legal mechanisms for regulating market relations in hiring of workers (0.1.2., 3.4.5).

These goals have been modified according to the socio-economic and demographic situation in rural areas. In this case, they are acceptable for a socially oriented market economy, when the social depreciation of the emergence of RLM and associated phenomenon of free labour resources becomes a key element.

The priority of the program' objectives is established based on what contribution, upon achieving each of them, can be made to increase the level of employment and, accordingly, improve the social situation in the region. On the other hand, priority areas of the program can be costly, and there will be insufficient financial resources for their implementation. This applies, in particular, to creation of new jobs outside state-owned enterprises. Therefore, the priority in this case is setting of the least capital-intensive jobs that can temporarily solve employment problems (for example, public work, homework, etc.).

The section for methodological support of this program begins with forming of a scientific and practical basis for the development and implementation of a policy in the field of development of RLM. It is advisable to include principles and approaches to the development of this market, ways to achieve goals; main directions of employment policy; priorities in the field of regulation of demand and supply of labour; alternative measures when external internal socio-economic conditions change; factors that form the subsystems of RLM; interaction with other blocks of social and economic policy.

Along with this, this section reflects a set of methods, provisions and instructions used in the analysis and forecast of the state of development of RLM.

The third section, information support, is important in the development of programs, where on the basis of existing and proposed forms of statistical reporting, as well as through special, sociological and marketing

research, the necessary data is collected on the main components of market development.

The collection of data using the proposed new forms of statistical reporting significantly improves the database of this program and enables to identify the number of employed and unemployed able-bodied population, the number of vacant jobs, the magnitude of demand, supply and prices for labour, the level of training and retraining of the unemployed who want to find a job, reduction in the numbers of employees from leading agricultural enterprises, the volume of education and spending of the employment promotion fund and changes in the situation on the RLM in the reporting and forecast periods.

Marketing research greatly improves assessment of labour supply and demand as well as relationships between them, used in the program development. Analysis and synthesis of marketing information is carried out by employees of the newly organized HR marketing department in employment promotion centres based on the proposed methodology. It is formed on the basis of the following stages of marketing research, including: determination of the goal, key problems and main tasks; collection and analysis of information on the main elements of the labour market conditions: determination of disproportion between labour demand and supply; identification of the scope and reasons of unemployment; development of measures to reduce it; determination of volumes and structures of required specialties and professions; coordination of proportions between demand and supply of labour; multivariate forecast for the main elements of RLM and marketing environment; development, placement and advertising, preparation of strategic plans for marketing activities in employment promotion centres.

Approbation of the proposed methodology of specific sociological research strengthens information security of this program and determines priority measures to improve socio-economic relations between employees and employers: timely payment of labour;

providing employees with prestigious jobs; building up worthwhile relationships between employees and employers; timely drawing up of labour contracts; job security, based on specialties and qualifications; technological provision of jobs with material and financial resources, possibility to improve skills or master new professions and reduce unemployment of labour force, carried out by employment centres; timely offer of jobs and appropriate assignment of benefits, provision of practical assistance and organization of small business in the development of private entrepreneurship; establishing systematic links between employees and employers, etc.

Forming up of sociological information and its application in the program development are carried out in stages and include rationale of the main goal, main tasks, subject and object of specific sociological research (SSR); preparation of questionnaires; coding of answers to questions; determination of approaches to the development of objects of SSR; familiarization of the selected objects with demographic, social and economic indicators of development: selection of respondents for the opted objects; selection and training of interviewers, sociologists and programmers; development of a sociological program; interviewing respondents and checking correctness of the filled out questionnaires; computer processing of primary survey data; preparation of a scientific report based on the obtained sociological information and its application in the implementation of this program.

In addition, this section contains information on markets for goods, securities, scientific developments, demographic, social and economic indicators of the development of the rural region.

The model support section of this program consists of a set of models developed by us, applied packages (TSP, LP / 88 and RUS), proposed programs (RINOC-T), information digital technologies and other tools useful for determining optimal parameters (options) for RLM development.

The developed complex of models of the rural labour market (RLM) includes:

- economic and statistical models of demo-social sources for labour supply and mac-roeconomic indicators of demand for labour;

- models of inter-industry balance of labour costs; balance models of demand and supply of labour; an optimization model of socio-economic regulation of labour supply and demand and the formation of rational employment;

- multivariate models of analysis and forecasting of the state of employment of the labour force and simulation models of development. The main results of this section are directly used for the software section.

The software section offers interrelated subprograms of the complex, including various activities with an indication of responsible executors and timing of their implementation; an increase in the demand and supply of labour in the companies of industrial processing and services in the spheres of individual labour; decrease in demand and supply of labour in agricultural industry; achieving appropriate proportion between demand and supply of labour; raising professional and qualification level of national personnel; developing rational employment of labour resources; effective development of the infrastructure of the employment service; organizational, economic and legal regulation of this market. Each subroutine consists of several interconnected sections.

The resource provision section includes a list of material, technical and financial resources required for implementation of programs, as well as sources where these can be found. It is advisable to finance implementation of events of this program using funds of the Employment Promotion Fund, budgetary donations of local authorities, attracting foreign investment, private entrepreneurs, funds of enterprises, income from financial and commercial activities of employment services, loans, credits, trade union dues, donations and other receipts.

Implementation of the Central Committee for Social Development and Trade involves spending financial resources (F) in the following main areas: payment of benefits for rural unemployment (B); organization of public works (O); promotion of private or part-time employment (E); assistance in early retirement (A); retraining and retraining of personnel (P); creation of new jobs (NJ); promoting self-employment and entrepreneurship of the unemployed (U); migration (M); purchase of computer equipment (T), packages of applied programs (AP) and methodological instructions (I) and other means (OM).

In this case, the amount of necessary funds is measured as follows:

F = axB + a20 + a3E + a4A + a5P + a6NJ + a7U + + a8M + a9T + a10AP + a1:LI + a^OM (1)

where an are correction factors (n = 1.12).

Financial resources (FR) of the region, intended for financing the Central Committee for the Development of Labour and Social Development, are formed at the expense of: funds ofthe employment fund (EF); funds ofthe budgets of the region and rural regions (BR); receipts from higher and other budgets (in addition to receipts directly to the (EF) (RB); targeted receipts from the State Employment Fund (SEF); extra-budgetary receipts (regional, rural areas) (EB); attracting funds from enterprises (FE), foreign investors and entrepreneurs; funds from their own financial and commercial activities (CA), loans, credits (LC); donations and other incomes (DO).

The entire volume of financial resources at the regional level is determined by:

FR=EF + BR+RB + SEF + EB + FE + CA + LC + DO (2)

The summary section provides summary indicators characterizing the expected state of RLM and the level of employment of the rural population after completion of the program. These include: the size of the rural working-age population: the size and structure

of demand and supply of labour; wages (prices) of employees; the number of new jobs created; the number of people secured with jobs (permanent and temporary); employment rate; the number of free labour resources, including the number of those receiving benefits, the number of voluntarily unemployed persons, etc.

The section of organizational and economic mechanisms for managing the program implementation includes: first, a system of program management bodies at different levels; second, a set of measures to improve and harmonize economic standards; third, methods and forms of managing the processes of allocating resources assigned for solving the problem; fourth, the forms and methods of control over program tasks.

In this section of the program, it is advisable to reflect the following: the network schedule for the program development and implementation; functions of the main management structures involved in the implementation of the program; the procedure for adjusting the program in the event of an unforeseen change in the socioeconomic situation in the republic or region; a list of forms with indicators and explanations required for their filling and processing, intended for employees of the services of the facilities covered by the program's activities; regulations on the procedure for monitoring the implementation of the program and its activities.

The section of the legal support of the program contains a list of legislative and normative regulations for the activities of entities covered by the program in the part related to regulation of the development of the labour market, social protection of population and related issues. As new regulatory documents are adopted, they are promptly brought to attention of the executors of this program.

Research findings

The program development and management is carried out in stages: setting of goals; development of methodological

Table 1

Forecast of new jobs and employment in agricultural clusters and cooperatives and other sectors of the rural economy of

Republic of Uzbekistan*

№ Name of the agricultural sector Indicators and units of measurement 2020 (report) Forecast period Change in 2025 compared to 2020

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

+; - %

1. Overall for the agricultural sector, including: new jobs, pes 94,250 99,524 102,161 104,798 107,435 112,713 + 18,463 119.6

employed population, people 109,095 115,789 119,136 122,483 125,830 132,525 + 23,430 121.5

1.1. By agricultural categories-total, including: new jobs, pes 65,975 74,010 76,995 79,980 82,965 88,940 + 22,965 134.8

employed population, people 76,367 82,854 88,195 93,536 98,877 109,563 + 33,196 143.5

1.1.1. Cottonovo-textilesing new jobs, pes 33,317 38,028 40,384 42,739 45,095 47,450 + 14,133 142.4

employed population, people 38,565 44,235 47,070 49,905 52,740 55,575 + 17,010 144.1

1.1.2. Grain new jobs, pes 2,969 3,118 3,192 3,266 3,341 3,415 + 446 115.0

employed population, people 3,437 3,563 3,627 3,690 3,753 3,816 + 379 111.0

1.1.3. Animal new jobs, pes 10,028 10,721 11,067 11,413 11,759 12,552 + 2,524 125.2

iНе можете найти то, что вам нужно? Попробуйте сервис подбора литературы.

employed population, people 11,608 12,474 12,907 13,340 13,773 14,639 + 3,031 126.1

1.1.4. Produce new jobs, pes 15,966 17,249 17,890 18,532 19,173 20,556 + 4,590 128.7

employed population, people 18,480 20,071 20,866 21,662 22,457 24,048 + 5,568 130.1

1.1.5. Silkthe manual new jobs, pes 1,715 1,936 2,047 2,158 2,269 2,490 + 775 145.2

employed population, people 1,986 2,255 2,390 2,524 2,659 2,928 + 942 147.4

1.1.6. Fishing new jobs, pes 1,188 1,204 1,212 1,221 1,229 1,245 + 57 104.8

employed population, people 1375 1,400 1,413 1,426 1,439 1,464 + 89 106.5

1.1.7. Agrotourism new jobs, pes 792 871 910 949 988 1,067 + 275 134.7

employed population, people 916 1,013 1,061 1,110 1,158 1,255 + 339 137.0

1.1.8. Medicinal plants new jobs, pes - 589 609 630 650 712 + 144 125.4

employed population, people - 651 682 713 744 837 + 217 135.0

1.2. Agricultural cooperatives new jobs, pes 4,713 4,909 5,008 5,106 5,204 5,302 + 589 112.5

employed population, people 5,184 5,401 5,509 5,617 5,725 5,942 + 758 114.6

1.3. Private farmers and farms new jobs, pes 23,562 24,822 25,452 26,081 26,711 27,971 + 4,409 118.7

employed population, people 24,740 26,663 27,624 28,586 29,547 31,470 + 6,730 127.2

II. Non-agricultural sectors new jobs, pes 196,118 206,744 217,370 227,996 238,622 259,874 + 74,382 140.1

employed population, people 225,087 252,349 265,980 279,611 293,242 320,504 + 95,417 142.4

In rural areas-all employed population, people new jobs, pes 293,006 306,269 319,533 332,796 346,060 372,587 + 92,845 133.2

334,181 373,797 393,605 413,413 433,221 453,029 + 118,848 135.6

" This table was compiled by the author

-J

o5

z O o o I O - X s

o m m: « o H

5 e

o

m m £

111 w 5 -o

fQ

and model apparatus for analysis and forecasting; collection of statistical, marketing and sociological information; drawing up a subprogram; approval of the drawn-up program and creation of organizational, economic and legal mechanisms for managing its implementation and adjustment.

As a result of approbation of the model support of the Central Committee for the Development of Labour and Social Development, we calculated the forecast indicators of a decrease in informal employment of the rural working-age population of the Republic of Uzbekistan until 2025 by increasing organization of jobs in agricultural clusters, cooperatives, farms and personal subsidiary plots.

Effective organization of agricultural clusters and cooperatives will have a direct positive impact on increasing the share of employment in this sector of the economy in the future and reducing the level of informal employment of the working-age population.

In 2020, 94,250 new jobs were created under the program in the agricultural sector. According to our calculations, an increase in the number of new jobs created in this sector

From Table 1, it can be seen that the number of the employed in rural areas in 2020 made 10,037.4 thousand people, and by 2025 this figure will have reached

of the economy is expected in the near future. That is, by 2025, the number of new jobs in agriculture will have reached 112,713.

The share of clusters in the structure of jobs created in agriculture is high, and the number of jobs created in them will increase from 65,975 in 2020 to 88,940 in 2025. During this period, the number of jobs created in agricultural cooperatives is expected to increase from 4,713 to 5,302 accordingly, and the number of jobs created in private farms, farms and other farms, is foreseen to increase from 23,562 to 27,971 (Table 1).

Over the forecast period, the number of jobs created in the non-agricultural sector is expected to increase from 185,492 in 2020 to 259,874 in 2025. Particular attention is paid to creation of new jobs in agricultural clusters and cooperatives of the country; adoption in the future of special state programs in these areas of the economy will lead to an increase in employment of the rural working-age population.

An increase in the number of new jobs in agricultural clusters and cooperatives in the Republic of Uzbekistan, in turn, will lead to a decrease in the number of informal employments in rural areas (Table 2).

11,303.7 thousand people. Owing to special attention paid to organization of agricultural clusters and cooperatives in the country, as well as to development of private farms,

Table 2

Forecast of informal employment in rural areas of the Republic of Uzbekistan,

in thousands of people*

№ Name of indicators for 2020 (report) Forecasting period 2025/2020, in %

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

1 Total number of people employed in rural areas 10,037.4 10,442.9 10,651.8 10,864.8 11,082.1 11,303.7 112.6

1.1 Including: in the informal sector 6,527.3 6,109.1 6,060.9 5,943.0 5,884.6 5,753.6 88.1

1.1.1 Informal sector share, % 63.3 58.5 56.9 54.7 53.1 50.9 x

* This figure was compiled by the author.

there is a decrease in the number of informal employments by 7,637 thousand people due to the jobs created in them. In particular, in 2020, 63.3% of the employed population in rural areas was employed in the informal sector, and by 2025 this figure will grow into 50.9%.

Review of research findings

There is an acute disproportion between the demand and supply of labour in rural areas of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Therefore, when compiling the TCPDRLM, in our opinion, it is advisable to include the following main activities:

- creation of new jobs in clusters, cooperatives and farms intended for agricultural production, considering the peculiarities of growing crops and livestock production;

- organization of new jobs in the processing industry, construction, domestic services and other sectors of the rural economy, which do not require too costly local and foreign investments in comparison with other types of labour activity;

- development of family business in the areas of agricultural production, where you can organize the least costly jobs and get a high labour income;

- expanding the area of application of labour in small business and private entrepreneurship by providing various means of financial and economic support, including tax benefits;

- creation of a set of conditions for migration within the Republic of Uzbekistan

of the rural working-age population with a high share of financing;

- increasing the volume of organized exports of rural labour for specific foreign employers, especially agricultural ones, on the basis of labour agreements (contracts) that meet international labour law;

- improving efficiency of both - the state-owned employment service, and private structures involved in the employment of the unemployed through organizational and economic support;

- development of a strategy for ensuring rational employment of the rural working age population on the basis of the Central Committee for the Labour and Social Development.

Conclusions

The proposed methodology makes it possible to determine specific measures, deadlines, executors and financial sources for implementation of effective solutions to reduce the supply of labour and increase its demand, also for forming up of an optimal proportion between labour markets and job places, as well as for formation rational employment and reduce unemployment to an acceptable level in rural areas of laboursurplus regions in Uzbekistan.

Acknowledgments

This study was funded under the scientific and practical project No. PZ-20170928644 of the Ministry of Innovative Development of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

REFERENCES

1. Chernyaga R.Yu. Program and target planning as a tool for implementing state economic policy. Sovremyennaya Nauka - Science nowadays, 2016, no. 12, pp. 17-22.

2. State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics. 2022. Available at: https://www.stat.

3. Ehrenberg J., Smith R.S. Modern labor economics. Theory and public policy. Publishing House of Moscow State University, 1996.

4. Ministry of Employment and Labour Relations of the Republic of Uzbekistan. 2022. Available at: https://www.stat.uz/.

5. Ivanov P.V. Opyt primeneniya programmno-tselevogo metoda planirovaniya i gosudarstvennykh

ИКТИСОДИЕТ ФАНЛАРИ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ ECONOMIC SCIENCES

programm v razlichnykh stranakh [Experience of applying the program-targeting method of planning and government programs in various countries]. Vestnik of Samara State University of Economics, 2014, no. 5 (115), pp. 6-10.

6. Junankar P.N. An econometric analysis of unemployment in Great Britain, 1892-1975. Oxford Economic Papers, 1981, vol. 33, pp. 387-400.

7. Kholmuminov Sh.R. Modelling the rural labour market. Tashkent, Fan, 1996.

8. Kholmyminov Sh.R. et al. The strategic directions of reducing unemployment of the rural population. Monograph, Tashkent, Innovative development publishing house, 2020.

9. Kholmuminov Sh.R. Fundamentals of HR marketing research of the rural labour market in labour-surplus regions. Science and Innovative Development, 2021, no. 3, pp. 17-21.

10. Kholmuminov Sh.R. Reducing informal employment based on the effective development of the rural labour market. Tashkent, Innovative development publishing house, 2021.

11. Minford P. Labor market equilibrium in an open economy. Oxford Economic Papers, 1983, vol. 35, pp. 207-244.

12. Molchanova N.P. Program-based approach to managing the development of Federal districts and regions of the Russian Federation. Moscow, MaxPress, 2015.

13. Oswald A. The Economic theory of trade unions: an introductory survey. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 1985, no. 67, pp. 160-193.

14. Pospelov G.S., Irikov V.A. Program and target planning and management: Study program. Moscow, Expo, 2016, p. 220.

15. Rudneva E.V. Targeted integrated programs: organizational and economic mechanism: study program for Higher Education Institutions. Nauka - Science, Moscow, 2016, p. 330.

16. Shadiev R.H. Labour market: issues of theory and practice. Proceedings of the World Bank seminar on a social project, Tashkent, 1995.

Reviewer:

Khomitov K.Z., Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Financial Institute of Tashkent.

i Надоели баннеры? Вы всегда можете отключить рекламу.