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Section 3. Geography
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20534/ESR-16-11.12-21-24
Tleumuratova Bibigul Saribaevna, PhD in physics and mathematics, the Karakalpak branch of the Uzbekistan Academy of Sciences.
Deputy of the Institute of natural sciences Mambetullaeva Svetlana Mirzamuratovna,
Dr.Sci.Biol.,
Karakalpak State University, professor E-mail: svetmamb@mail.ru
Forsings of ecosystems transformations in Priaralie
Abstract: Ecosystem transformations of Priaralie, which take place due to the sharp change of the water regime are diverse and numerous. The influence of salt aerosol from the post-aquatic dry land on the environment in Southern Priaralie is not restricted to soil salinity and degradation of vegetation.
Keywords: Priaralie, ecosystem transformations, salt aerosol, degradation, mathematical modeling.
Ecosystem transformations of Priaralie, which take place due to the sharp change of the water regime are diverse and numerous. In the conditions of development process of anthropogenic desertification the removal of salt from the desiccated bed of the Aral Sea is going on, degradation ofvegetation is observed and the intensity of salt accumulation in the soil is increasing.
New shallow horizons of underground water with high capillary elevation of moisture and mineralization from 20 to 100 g/l are being formed on the desiccated bed. On termination of the second year of the Aral Sea bed desiccation the coastal zones have turned into plump alkali soils, dryness and flowability soil is increasing. At the same time the removal of salt on adjacent irrigated lands leads to considerable decline of crop productivity [6].
The influence of salt aerosol from the post-aquatic dry land on the environment in Southern Priaralie is not restricted to soil salinity and degradation of vegetation. As we know, the increase of aerosol concentration in the air influences the kinetics and dynamics of the atmosphere processes. The results of aerosol-radiation measurements [1], carried out in Priaralie in 1979-1982 over the sea and the desiccated territory during salt and sand removal showed considerable changes in distribution of radiation and hydrological balance ingredients of the «underlying surface — atmosphere» system. The given observations show that the cloudy nucleus of condensation contain, as a rule, of sulphates, which are prevailing fractions in mineral components of aerosol, removed from the desiccated bed of the Aral Sea by the wind.
The connection between the increase of the atmosphere pollution, and then the nucleus of condensation and reinforcement of cloud and sludge is testified by numerous investigations of aerosol and climatic effects, both natural and model [3]. Therefore we might speak of climatic-generation role of salt aerosol from post aquatic dry land of the Aral Sea.
The sharp decrease of the sea water area and degradation of vegetation make evident influence on the local climatic characteristics in Southern Priaralie. More over, the loss of the role of the main salt receiver by the Aral Sea led to progressing mineralization of un-
derground water in the region, thus promoting the soil salinization. At the same time the degradation of vegetation leads to weakening of the effect of minerals removal from soil.
Thus, there is a system of transforming factors, which still influence the soil-climatic conditions of Southern Priaralie. It should be mentioned that it is necessary to demarcate the conceptions «the Aral Sea influence» and «the influence of the Aral Sea desiccation», because in the first case the factor is a geographical object, and in the second case — the process of ecosystem transformation, which as any ecological process, is a system of interrelated processes. In much the same way the effect of salt aerosol and the influence of post-aquatic dry land as the generator of salt removal differ from each other, and the influence of vegetation and the effect of degradation of vegetation respectively. Hence, the investigation of the Aral Sea desiccation influence on the environment assumes the study of the system process-factors with the aggregate oftheir interconnections. On this point of view concerning the effects of the Aral Sea crisis, we have a new systemic problem statement on quantitative assessment of soil-climatic conditions measurements in Priaralie depended on the ecosystem transformations. The influence degree assessment, the study of the dynamics of the running changes and the investigation of the dependence of influence results on the transformation factors degree is an absolutely interesting task both in scientific and practical plans. Solving of such a problem is possible only if there is a vast factual material and the many years observation data. Therefore the study of this problem became real only now, when a solid semi centennial basis of empirical knowledge was formed. On the other hand, the aggravation of the ecological problems of the Prear-alie region connected with soil salinity and changes of the temperature and moisture regimes urgently necessitate the systemic study of these processes. Taking into consideration the prevalence of the agrarian sector in the Karakalpakstan economy, it should be admitted that the researches of this kind are very timely.
Great number of scientific works is dedicated to the study of some aspects of ecological changes and their influence on the environmental situation in Prearalie. Starting from the middle of
seventies the problem of aridization and salinity of Prearalie became the issues of detailed study by scientists of such scientific organizations as Scientific Research Institute of Hydrometeorology (SRIH) of Uzhydromet, KazSRIH, the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), Karakalpak Branch of Uzbekistan Academy of Sciences and many other institutions.
The huge factual material, obtained by the scientists during 40 years of the Aral crises existence, makes it possible to refer the problem of salinization of soil to a well structured class ofproblems. The data obtained made it possible to discover on the territory of Southern Priaralie approximately 3,5-4 times bigger alkali soil area than on the territory of Kazakhstan [10]. The percentage of saline land in dry area is constantly increasing (from 3% in 1963 to 12% in 1990). Thus, detection of salt amount accumulated on post-aquatic dry land and its removal to adjacent territories remains to be one of the urgent and complex problems of geoecology of the present Aral. Investigations on climatic changes in Southern Priaralie are not so numerous and diverse as investigations on soil salinity, and mainly are of qualitative character. Firs of all great contribution of SRIH Uzhydromet scientists should be mentioned [4, 5, 11, 12]. Their works contain not only retrospective analysis of climatic changes in Priaralie but predictable assessments with the help of global models are given. The influence of sulfate aerosol is taken into consideration there.
In researches of climatic changes in Southern Priaralie, completed abroad [2], the Aral Sea desiccation is mainly regarded as a factor, only some works mention aerosol effect, and influence ofvegetation transformation is not assessed at all. However, it should be mentioned there are a lot ofworks [3, 14-16] with the analysis of the factors, concerning climatic changes, completed for other regions or in the global scale. In the whole concerning the research of the Aral Sea problem we can mention that «outburst» of scientific inquiry on record in 70-80-ies of the last century, unfortunately, has been gradually decreased, and it is firs of all applied to expeditionary and natural surveys.
From currently available studies follows that though the problem of geoecosystem transformations of the Aral and Priaraliye and their influence on the environment is studied many- sided, only separate aspects of the problem are considered in each research. Not a bit derogating the value of the above mentioned works, as a result of which enormous scientific material is accumulated, it is necessary to acknowledge that only the systemic study of the influence of occurring transformations with their interconnected dynamics, allows displaying such an important characteristic of the system as the emergentism 13. Let us give the elementary example. The Studies of one factor of the climatic change can show the increasing of summer temperature for 2 degrees, and independent studies of the other factor — a reduction for 2 degrees. The result of the studies in either event is a considerable change of the climate. The joint study of these factors, as a system will bring about zero result i. e. to motivated conclusion that no changes in climate occur. New characteristics of factors which were revealed under their system study are on hand. It is obvious that the results of the systemic study are closer to reality and give more complete idea about occurring changes. Thereby, the study of ecological transformation in Priaralie, as a system factor of environmental change seemed to be very actual.
Since natural potential is mostly defined by soil and climate condition, for such an agrarian region as Southern Priaralie, quantitative estimation and forecasting of the climatic change and the soil condition present extremely important and necessary information. In this connection we set a task to study with the help of the mathematical modeling methods the correlation of Priaraliya ecosystem dynamics and such processes as soil salinization and the
change of local climatic features. Not pretending on the study of whole number of factor, causing these processes, we were limited to the most important ones — the desiccation of the Aral Sea, wind removal of salts from post-aquatic dry land and degradation ofvegetation. Thereby, we have a system of three interconnected factors-processes, which influence upon the climate and soil salinity.
The mathematical modeling, being powerful and irreplaceable instrument of the ecological studies corresponds without any alternative to the purpose of this study. In the course of building of the models system, corresponding to the purpose of the study we came to conclusion that a big volume of data, both input and intermediate requires the organization of special database with architecture, adapted to the structure of the ecological model [9].
This considerably simplifies the procedure of the intensive information exchange between sub models in the course of the model realization. Besides, the abundance of operation, such as the adaptation of data of one sub model to the data of other sub models, the graphic output, integration and statistical processing of the results requires the buildings of special modules, usually included to the programs of each sub model.
The Highlighting of the specified functions and the database in separate, general for all sub models structure — the information-statistical block — provides the best consensus and format unity of the model in the whole.
Furthermore, at realization of the complex model, as a collection of separate programs, functioning in the interactive mode is inevitable; this consists in the control of the execution sequence of these programs and entering the data under variant calculations.
The control automation of the model realization course by building of a special controlling block and inclusion of data set for variant calculations into database raises the efficiency of the computing process and excludes the human factor to the limit. Thereby, we came to the idea of ecological macro model, according to which the model out of a simple collection of sub models is transformed into the system with infrastructure, which consists of the information-statistical (ISB) and controlling block (CB). As a result sub models turn out to be bound not only logically, but also technologically i. e. the system relationships get its clear expression and embodiment in infrastructure.
Thereby, we modified traditional technology of modeling of the complex processes by buildings of the model complex, named by us macro model so that to distinguish from usual systems of the models. The macro model designed by us is a hierarchical system, the elements of which are information-statistical block, control block and model blocks. The Control block (CB) is essentially a program ofrealization macroalgorythm of the models system. Information-statistical block (ISB), the base of which is the database, serves for processing input, intermediate and output models. The Model blocks are complex models, consisting of several sub models, mainly numerical.
The Model 1 first of all, allows to conduct the calculations of the change of saltiness, the water level and configuration of coastal line of the Aral Sea (the submodel SEA). Secondly, in model 1, zones of influence on temperature and moisture fields are defined (the submodel ZONE) i. e. parameters of three-dimensional space, in which deflections of specified climatic features are not less than previously set points (accuracy). In submodels SDB (salinization of dried bottom) the amount of the salts remaining on drained bed as a result of the sea regression is calculated.
The Purpose to models 2 — is a description of the saline soil formation and dynamics on the desiccated bed (the submodels WATER and SALT), as well as salinization of soil outside of post-aquatic
dry land as a result of infiltration of the sulfate aerosol fall with precipitation or during irrigation (the submodel INFILTR).
In models 3 the calculation of salt transfer is presented (the submodel SALTTR). Then in submodels RA.D the level of the atmosphere temperature regime change under the influence of saline aerosol is calculated [8].
The Model 4 describes the influence of vegetable layer on the temperature and moisture of the air. The Submodel GROUND presents the equation of heat conductivity in the ground. The Transformation heat and moisture flow in vegetation layer and their importance on the upper border ofvegetation layer are defined in balance submodel VEGETA. Vertical diffusion of heat and moisture flows in the atmosphere are calculated in the numerical submodel AIRTR and PRSA. Dependence of soil salinization on projective covering ofvegetation layer is assessed in model [7].
When initializing the work of macromodel in the module DATASCENARIES of the information-statistical block scenarios of input data for each submodel (the specially organized external in-formation)are formed. Output data of all models are entered in ISB, on soil salinity — in module SALINE, on climatic change — in module CLIMATE, where they are organized in an integrated format then are sent to Results for generalizing statistical processing and cartographic work.
In the course of study the dynamics of influence of changing factors on the climatic characteristics and soil salinization during four decades (1966-2005) was traced. On the basis of the obtained results for this retrospective period, the main trends were revealed and scenarios for the forecast calculations for 2030 were made.
Thus, the use of the macromodels has allowed quantitative assessment of this forcing, reveal the appropriateness of its dynamics, both on years, and more detailed — on seasons, months and decades, as well as forecast the development of the process in the future.
The results obtained indicative the essential influence of the considered factors on the temperature and relative moisture of the air, the amount and mineralization of precipitation, as well as on salinization of soil. The important role of the vegetable cover in de-salinization of soil is revealed in particular [7-9].
We shall bring the main results of the conducted study.
1. Emergentism of systems factor reveals itself in the fact that the dynamics of the joint influence of forcings, because of their difference in signs, loses its monotony, possesses the greater rates of change compared with the dynamics of influence separately and in the course of time can change the sign of the influence i. e. make the qualitative jump.
2. The amount of salt remaining on the soil surface, as a result of the sea regression, increased from 12 t/h in 1973 to 148 t/h in 2005.
3. Infiltration with the precipitations of the saline aerosol, removed from the desiccated bottom of the Aral Sea by wind in 2005, increased the soil salinization by 0,5%.
4. Average annual increase of precipitations mineralization by saline aerosol is equal to 50 mg/dm 3.
5. Salt aerosol at concentration up to 400 mkg/m3 on the condensed level leads to increase of precipitations, in some cases their realization by 1,6 mm, at a higher concentrations the aerosol effect changes for the opposite — the precipitations do not fall, and thereby, the lifetime of clouds increase, i. e. duration of cloudiness.
6. Salt aerosol brings down the temperature by 2-3 °C.
7. Vegetation lowers the temperature of the air at the average by 1-2 degrees as a result of the energy consumption on evapotranspiration and a smaller coefficient in contrast with ground heat exchange with the external ambience. The degree of reduction of the air temperature by vegetation depends mainly on its projecting cover (by 70-80%). The chang e the air temperature by vegetation cover to 0,01 degrees spreads up till significant height (2000 m for 100% for the projecting cover).
8. The vegetable layer increases the relative moisture of the air due to evapotranspiration at an average by 0,8%; the level of the air moisture increase depends mainly on the projective cover of the vegetation; the dependence of transpirational coefficient does not exceed 20%; the change of the air moisture by vegetation cover to 0,1% spreads at an average up to 800 m.
9. The softening influence of the Aral Sea on the Priaralie climate is steadily decreasing and the reduction of relative moisture by 0,18-0,3% per year is going on and increasing of the air temperature by 0,05-0,2 0 C per annum consequently.
10. The extent of Aral Sea zone influence on the temperature and relative moisture of air decreased monotonously from 300 km in 1966 to 30 km in 2008.
11. The influence of salt removal by the wind on the climate is expressed in reduction of the temperature of the air by 0,07-0,1 0 C per annum, as well as in increase of mineralization on 10-30 mg/dm3 and rainfall on 0,2-0,3 mm per annum.
12. The total influence of factors on reduction of relative moisture and increasing of the air temperature make up 0,04-0,3% per annum and from 0,03 to 0,11 0 C per annum accordingly.
The analysis and comparison of the results of the macromodel numerical realization in the whole and submodels to the pictures with ISZ, observed data and model calculation of the other authors allows to draw a conclusion about the adequacy of the designed models and the correspondence of the calculations obtained with the reality data.
Thus, the macromodeling, applied in a given study, has allowed get tinga new impression on the role of ecosystem transformations taking place in Priaralie. The main ecological problems of the region — salinization of soil and climatic changes are considered in a new perspective, as effect of the system transformation of geobio-cenoses. We made sure that the desiccation of the Aral Sea and its consequences, as wind removal of salts and degradation of vegetation lead to considerable changes of atmosphere and soil condition.
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20534/ESR-16-11.12-24-25
Usmanov Zakir Karimovich, Junior scientist, Scientific research center «Scientific bases and problems of development of the economy of Uzbekistan», Tashkent State University of Economics,
E-mail: uzk.com@mail.ru
Assessment of the development level of railways in economic and geographical areas of Uzbekistan
Abstract: In this article, the development level of rail transport and the factors influencing its development have been examined, and research proposals and recommendations to address existing disparities in socio-economic development in the economic and geographical areas have been developed.
Keywords: economic-geographical area, rail transport, infrastructure, supply, length, density, cargo transportation, passenger transportation, disparities.
Introduction. Sustainable economic development, the formation ofa unified socio-economic area, the improvement ofthe territorial structure of the productive forces in our country largely depends on the advanced development of transport infrastructure [1], including rail transport, since the conveyance cost of goods and passengers on rail transport, compared with other modes of transport, is significantly lower. In particular, the cost value of freight by rail is 3-5 times cheaper than road transport, 12-15 times - on air transport [2]. The structure of the rail transport and its infrastructure includes linear and nodal elements, locomotives and wagons, but railway transportation is divided into goods and passenger transportation [3].
Goals and objectives. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the development level of railway transport under the conditions of modernization of the economy by the example of the economic and geographical areas of Uzbekistan, the development of proposals and recommendations to address existing disparities in socio-economic development among the economic and geographical areas. Based on the set goals, the following tasks were performed: the length and density of railways on economic and geographical areas were explored; the dynamics of the conveyance of goods and passengers was analyzed; as well as the disparities between the economic and geographical areas were identified; scientific recommen-
dations and proposals to improve railway transport was developed. The study used the methods of geographical, comparative analysis, statistical, mathematical and historical methods.
Main part. All the economic and geographic areas of Uzbekistan (hereinafter EGA) are covered by rail transport. For the years of independence constructed, railway lines as Navoi-Nukus-Uchkuduk-Sul-tanuizdag and Tashguzar-Boysun-Kumkurgan are of great importance. In 2016, the railway with the length of 124 km was introduced into operation. Angren-Pap, connecting the Fergana valley with the other territory of Uzbekistan, can be regarded as the final stage ofthe formation of a country's unified transport network [4]. It should be emphasized that all of them have both meridional and latitudinal directions.
In 2015, the length of railways for general use made up 4,237.5 km. and for the period 1991-2015, this figure had increased by 120.0%. Mean density indicators of railways for 10,000 km2 made up 94.4 km/km2 [5]. This figure is much lower than the ones of developed countries. In particular, the railway density is 9 times lower than in Japan, 12.5 times - Germany [6].
As studies show, there are significant disparities on the length and density of the railways between the EGA. Along the length of the railways, Zarafshan (24.1%) and lower Amu Darya (23.2%) are leaders, EGA (Table 1).
