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Dmitri Trenin,
Director, Moscow Carnegie Center FOREIGN POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Russian foreign policy in the past two decades has not ceded the country's positions in the world and did not succumb to the dangerous temptation to compensate in any way the disintegration of the U.S.S.R. Russia has reached and maintained the minimally acceptable level of relations with most of its foreign partners and close neighbors. Ideology has been removed from Russian foreign policy and its place was taken by the problems of economic relations. The country's foreign policy has become more "national" than it was in Soviet times, it is now taking into account the interests of big Russian companies, definite categories of citizens, and society as a whole.
At the same time its pragmatism remains "naked," as it were. It is not rooted in the social values officially proclaimed, and not shared by the country's elite. As a result, instead of being an embodiment of enlightened national egoism, the foreign policy of the Russian Federation often looks as an example of the narrow-minded group opportunism. National interest is too often replaced by concrete interests of individual monopolists who believe that what is good for them should be good for Russia. The process of adopting decisions is
not transparent. This essentially limits the effectiveness of Russian foreign policy.
Genuinely national interest requires the maximally broad use of external resources for the country's modernization. In practice it means the establishment and maintenance of stably peaceful and partnership relations with the countries where the main external resources, technologies and experience are concentrated, which could be used in the interests of Russian modernization. These are, mainly, the countries of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and also a number of other leading countries of the BRICS group.
In order to get full access to this potential it is necessary to find an acceptable balance between economic interests, political realities and requirements for ensuring national security. Economic integration with the CIS countries, gradual but resolute departure from "residual" confrontation with the U.S.A. and demilitarization of relations with it, close economic and humanitarian cooperation with the European Union, all-round and balanced partnership with China, and normalization of relations with Japan could be the main factors and components of success.
Strategic independence of the Russian Federation in the international arena is the most important principle of its foreign policy. Naturally, not a single country in the modern world, including the United States and China, is fully independent from others. But we mean independence in the adoption of decisions. Russia is not part of any alliances headed by other states and so far does not participate in political-economic associations headed at a supranational level. The competence of the Commission of the Customs Union is limited and the competence of other economic associations with the participation of the Russian Federation, including the projected Eurasian Union,
should also be limited. It is precisely the strategic independence of Russia that is the essence of the "great power" concept, as it is now understood conformably to the Russian Federation.
Geopolitically speaking, the Russian Federation is not so much a Eurasian as a Euro-Pacific country. This definition emphasizes the European roots of Russia, and at the same time is the crucial geopolitical and geo-economic fact showing that it has broad access to the Pacific connecting it with East Asia, America and Australia. In contrast to Euro-Asian/Eurasian terminology, Euro-Pacific definition emphasizes the country's cultural self-determination and points to its direct outlet to the most dynamic region of the world. As to its being the impetus to Russia's development, the Pacific in the 21st century is about the same as the Baltic region was at the beginning of the 18th century.
The present foreign policy of the Russian Federation is directed primarily to its own country, and only after that to the rest of the world. Its main aim is to help transform Russia and only then, and on that basis, to help improve the surrounding world. The problems of the world order and world management are important for the Russian Federation conformably to its concrete interests, namely, to overcome the country's backwardness.
Regional Directions of Russia's Foreign Policy
Integration nucleus of the CIS
Integration with individual CIS countries is not a means to overcome Russia's backwardness. Nevertheless, due to integration more favorable conditions are created for solving this task. Among these conditions is the formation of a more capacious market of commodities, services and workforce. Within the framework of the Customs Union and the uniform economic area of Russia, Kazakhstan
and Belarus the more appropriate forms of regulation conformably to the modern economic conditions are used.
It should be taken into account that the integration processes going on between the Russian Federation and the CIS countries are in no way similar to the restoration of the "Greater Russia." Russia's partners in the CIS adhere to the principles of strengthening and consolidating their state independence, and their national interests do not always coincide with Russian interests. Any pressure brought to bear on Ukraine in order to make it join integration should be excluded. Otherwise, Ukraine will work for disintegration. The Central Asian countries, if they do not correspond to the criteria of membership, should not be accepted to the nucleus of integration either.
If Russia wishes to become a regional leader it should use "soft force" and practice "enlightened egoism." Russia needs regional leadership, indeed, for building an effective integration model for interaction with its close neighbors and ensuring its own security. Both these factors are absolutely necessary for solving the main task - the country's modernization.
Euro-Atlantism
The OECD countries, primarily members of the European Union, are the main external resource of the Russian Federation for overcoming its backwardness. Most of them are NATO members or part to bilateral alliances with the United States. Drawing closer to Europe strategically, along with unstable relations with the United States, is unreal. In order to use the European resource for modernization to the full it is necessary to change the character of relations with the United States fundamentally. In other words, there should be a gradual demilitarization of the Russian-American (Russian-NATO) relations and the formation of a security community
in the Euro-Atlantic area. Such community is a must for the formation of the common economic area of the European Union and the RF/EAU.
Among the priorities of Russia's policy toward the European Union for the present six-year presidential period are:
- Conclusion of a new agreement on the RF - EU partnership;
- Creation of a free-trade zone with the EU;
- Creation of joint scientific-production complexes with European companies; exchange of assets;
- Further liberalization of visa regime with EU countries right up to complete abolition of visas;
- Active border cooperation;
- Greater role of St. Petersburg as the European metropolis of the Russian Federation and one of the centers of the Baltic region;
- Development of Arkhangelsk as the "capital of the Russian Arctic region".
The main task of Russia's policy toward NATO is the formation of a security community in the Euro-Atlantic region with the participation of the Russian Federation. The following priorities can be singled out in this sphere for the years 2012 through 2018:
- Transformation of the Russian-American (Russian-Western) relations in the sphere of strategic cooperation. An agreement on an anti-missile defense system in Europe between the U.S.A./NATO and Russia, with due account of Russia's interests in security and on the basis of mutual trust;
- Strengthening of mutual confidence by further arms control. Agreements with the U.S.A. on non-strategic systems of arms;
- The use of the RF - NATO relations for modernizing the system of the external security of Russia and reaching compatibility in carrying on collective operations;
- Further process of Russian-Polish historical reconciliation;
- Development of similar processes with the Baltic neighbors of the RF - Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia;
- Settlement of the Dniester conflict within the framework of security partnership of the RF and the EU.
The "Northern façade" of the Russian Federation - the Arctic -is the geopolitical continuation of the Euro-Atlantic area. It is necessary to solve the following tasks along this direction within the 2012-2018 period:
- To legitimize the leading role of the Arctic countries in solving problems pertaining to the Arctic as a whole. To affirm the principle and practice of exclusively peaceful solution of all disputed questions in the region;
- To reach an international agreement favorable for Russia on the problem of the continental shelf in the Arctic;
- To develop international shipping along the Northern Sea Route and build the necessary infrastructure in the Far North of the Russian Federation.
Asia and the Pacific
In the early 21st century East Asia became the most dynamic region of the world, and the center of world trade shifted to the Pacific. It has also become the center of the world strategic relations. Russia should take into account not only this change in world economic geography, but also the possibility of using it for its own economic development and the strengthening of its security. The fate of Eastern Russia, Siberia and the Pacific coast in the Russian Far East is one of the most crucial problems of the integrity of the Russian Federation, its self-identification and the position and role in the world. This problem could be solved by way of double economic integration - Eastern Russia in the unified area of the Russian Federation, and the latter in
the Asia-Pacific region (APR). The development of good-neighborly relations and all-round cooperation with China will be of paramount importance.
The main priority of Russia's policy in the Asia-Pacific region is the development of the eastern regions of the Russian Federation - the Pacific Coast and Siberia. We mean the following directions:
- Attraction to the Far East and Siberia of investments, technologies, specialists and workforce for creating a modern transport infrastructure and modern industries. The development of fuel-and-energy production, mining industry and logistics as the material base of Russian policy in the region;
- Gradual expansion of the "niche" of the Russian Federation in the Asia-Pacific region: from energy resources (oil, gas, coal, electric energy) and transit capabilities (TransSib railway, Northern Sea Route, air routes over Siberia) to the creation of space launching sites (in the Amur basin) and educational centers;
- Broad economic cooperation at the regional level: not only with North-East China, but also with Taiwan, South Korea, western states of the U.S.A. - from Alaska to California, western provinces of Canada, and territories in Australia and New Zealand;
- Implementation of "double integration": the East of Russia -in the common economic area of the country, and the Russian Federation - in the Asia-Pacific region.
The more partners Russia will have in the Asia-Pacific region the better positions of Russia will be on the banks of the Amur and the Ussuri rivers, the Bering Strait and La Peruse Strait.
Reliable security of the Russian Federation is a most important condition for the development of the eastern regions of the country. For this purpose Russia should strengthen its political relations with all major players, participate actively in multilateral diplomacy in the
region, and also improve its military potential, including in its eastern part.
The growing contradictions between the United States and China force the latter to look for closer ties with Russia, including in the military-political sphere, for the first time in the past sixty years. China would like to secure political support of Moscow in its possible confrontation with Washington. With a view to strengthening its military-technical potential China will be interested in broad access to the latest Russian technologies and development in the military sphere, including naval, air, nuclear and space arms, and anti-missile-defense systems. China will need access to Russian natural resources, especially fuel and energy. In exchange China will be ready to grant credits to Russia, investments, technologies obtained in the West, as well as workforce for the development of Siberia and the Far East. A Russian-Chinese condominium will be established in Central Asia. The leading role in this possible Chinese-Russian alliance will most probably be played by China. Such scenario of Russia losing its sovereignty and becoming an appendage to China is extremely dangerous for Russia, and it may well turn into reality if Russia's relations with the West exacerbate.
Central and South Asia
The territory of Central Asia alone will not form the integration nucleus of the CIS. Nevertheless, the new states of the region situated relatively close to the borders of the Russian Federation, having various natural and labor resources, which were included for quite a long time in the zone of Russian cultural influence, are of interest as an "integration reserve" and at the same time a buffer against undesirable currents from the South. Some of them are members of the EuroAsEC,
and all of them, except Turkmenistan, are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
The main task for ensuring security in the Central Asian direction is to reduce radically drug trafficking coming to Russia from Afghanistan via the territory of Central Asia.
One of the most crucial tasks facing the Russian Federation is contribution to stability in Central Asia itself.
Quite soon the withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan and the exacerbation of internal Afghan conflict connected with it can become a major destabilizing factor in the entire region and even beyond its borders. In Afghanistan itself Russia, in cooperation with neighboring countries, should strive for the elimination of the exceptionally negative influence of the developments in Afghanistan on the situation in the region, and all the more so, beyond its boundaries. But the internal political and other structure of Afghanistan is the affair of the Afghan people themselves.
In order to oppose these challenges and threats Russia needs to transform the Collective Security Treaty Organization from a military alliance into a regional alliance of security for Central Asia. At the same time it is in the interests of Russia to continue to strengthen the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a mechanism of regional interaction with the PRC in multilateral format, as a common Asian platform and an instrument for maintenance of geopolitical stability on the Asian continent. In the future the international aspects of Afghan settlement could become a subject for discussions and solutions within the SCO framework or special forums under its auspices.
Outside the boundaries of the former U.S.S.R. the principal strategic partner of the Russian Federation in Asia is India. The main task along this line is to elevate the traditionally friendly relations to the status of real strategic partnership. For this purpose it will be necessary
to radically broaden economic cooperation by raising mutual attraction of each other's business.
The Middle East and North Africa
The high level of internal and external conflicts in this region poses definite risks to Russia. There is the danger of instability moving closer to the Muslim countries close to the Russian borders, and also to certain regions of the Russian Federation, primarily the North Caucasus. Another danger comes from drawing Russia into political conflicts around certain countries, primarily Iran, and as a result, a sharp exacerbation of relations with the United States, and some western and Arab countries.
As to Russia's attitude to the "Arab awakening," we can say that the anti-revolutionary rhetoric of Moscow and its refusal from contacts with new movements in the region and their leaders do not contribute to the strengthening of Moscow's positions. Russian policy in the Libyan and Syrian conflicts shows the absence of a definite strategic line of the Russian Federation. This has already dealt a blow at Moscow's reputation in the Arab world and led to greater tension in its relations with the United States, the EU countries and many states of the world community. Such consequences of Russian policy hamper solution to the main strategic task of Russian foreign policy.
At the same time there are certain possibilities in this sphere. A number of countries, primarily Turkey, as well as Iran, are important trade partners. Relations with Turkey have improved lately, and relations with Iran continue to remain at a "working level." Certain countries of the Gulf region have definite material resources which could be used for modernization in individual regions of the Russian Federation. The situation on the world oil market depends on some Third World countries, for example Saudi Arabia. Finally, Israel with
its multi-vector modernization and high-tech facilities could be a unique partner in the sphere of multi-purpose modernization.
Russia should closely cooperate with Turkey in order to ensure its national security and protect national interests, especially along the Caucasian direction, and also in respect to Iran and Arab countries. As to the Iranian problem, it is necessary to interact with other permanent member-states of the UN Security Council, as well as Germany. And in the Israeli-Palestinian direction Russia should actively work with the United States, the European Union and the United Nations Organization within the framework of the "Middle East quartet." At the same time Russia should maintain contacts of trust with all other major players in the region, including states, and political and religious movements and organizations.
The Global Role of Russia
Russia should use its advantages for creating global or regional public benefits. These spheres include strategic stability and nuclear security, energy security, international law, and international mediation.
In the sphere of strategic stability and nuclear security the role of the Russian Federation consists of maintaining its leadership, along with the United States, in the efforts to reduce the nuclear threat by curtailing nuclear arsenals, stopping nuclear tests, including other nuclear powers in this process, and preventing the further proliferation of nuclear weapon.
In the sphere of energy security the leading role of the Russian Federation consist not only of prospecting and developing new deposits of energy raw materials, and mining and delivering them to the world market, but also of raising the energy-efficiency of the Russian economy, greater safety and reliability of nuclear power plants, and a stable market and political balance between the interests of participants
in the energy markets. A system of energy partnerships between the Russian Federation and a whole number of leading players on this field, primarily the EU and North Asian countries, could be a worthy practical embodiment of efforts in this sphere.
Non-participation in international conflicts, with few exceptions, enables Russia to come out in the role of an honest mediator between conflicting parties, and first and foremost, in conflicts on the territory of the former U.S.S.R., as well as in the situations around the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea. Besides, Russian participation may be necessary in the Middle East, Afghanistan and elsewhere. Successful mediation requires serious diplomatic efforts, but it also contributes to greater international prestige and influence of this country.
Finally, Russia may become one of the leading countries in the international development of the Arctic region at the present stage. We mean not only the formation of an all-round system of international cooperation in the Arctic, but also the protection of the rights and interests of the indigenous peoples of the Arctic region.
"Povestka dnya novogo presidentstva ", Moscow, Carnegie Center, Moscow, 2012, pp. 9-16.
Yana Amelina,
Political analyst, journalist, section head at the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies NATIONALISM OR RADICAL ISLAM (Political Realities of Tatarstan)
At present the Tatar national movement, which was a serious political force in the 1980s - 1990s, has a stronger Islamic component and a weaker nationalistic one. This is true not only of the Republic of Tatarstan, but of the entire Volga area. It is largely connected with the
