CC BY
8d ) https://dx.doi.org/10.36522/2181-9637-2022-6-10 UDC: 339.5/.137. 3(045)(575.1)
FOREIGN ECONOMIC STRATEGY FOR THE INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECONOMY OF UZBEKISTAN FOR THE PERIOD
UNTIL 2030
Yusupov Asomiddin Soatovich,
Doctor of Philosophy in Economics Sciences (PhD), Associate Professor at Tashkent State University of Economics ORCID: 0000-0003-3409-2997, e-mail: a.yusuf3101@gmail.com
Introduction
Current trends in the development of international trade show that the growth of the world trade in recent decades has had a strong impact on the economic development of countries, and the level of their dependence on international trade is even more growing. Countries tend to produce goods or services that have a relative advantage [1].
Being an equal partner in the world market makes exporters have an important task - the need to continuously improve manufactures based on innovation. Establishing and developing of export-oriented industries is carried out in direct connection with the global economic system.
As a matter of fact, the issue of reforming of socio-economic relations in the republic depends immediately on right decisions aimed at improving the economic and export potential of industries and regions [2].
The Concept of Integrated Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Uzbekistan before 2030 has been developed in accordance with the Action Strategy for 2017-2021, which includes priorities and objectives of sustainable economic development in the long run.
Literature review
The need to improve methods for regulation and stimulation of the foreign trade leads to various observations. At the stage of international integration and globalization, the need to unify interstate and regional
Abstract. The concept of socio-economic development of Uzbekistan until 2030 recognizes macroeconomic policy aimed at sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction, as well as increasing the competitiveness of national exports as an important economic pillar. Successful implementation of the Concept of Comprehensive Social and Economic Development of the Republic of Uzbekistan until 2030 undoubtedly requires considerable attention to external factors of economic development. Today, the issue of regulating global socio-economic processes is one of the most important issues at the international level. The World Trade Organization (WTO) as the legal and institutional body of the multilateral trading system is an international organization that enjoys various advantages in the free exchange of goods. Currently, 164 countries are members of this organization and the integration of Uzbekistan into it gives rise to different views among experts and scholars.
Keywords: development goals, financial and economic relations, development concept until 2030, foreign economic strategy.
УЗБЕКИСТОН ИКТИСОДИЁТИНИ 2030 ЙИЛГАЧА ИННОВАЦИОН РИВОЖЛАНТИРИШ ДАВРИДА ТАШКИ ИКТИСОДИЙ СТРАТЕГИЯ
Юсупов Асомиддин Соатович,
и^тисодиёт фанлари номзоди, Тошкент давлат и^тисодиёт университети доценти
Аннотация. Узбекистонни 2030 йилгача ижтимоий-ицтисодий ривожлантириш концеп-циясида барцарор ицтисодий усишни таъмин-лаш ва цашшоцликка царши курашиш, шунинг-дек, миллий экспорт рацобатбардошлигини оширишга царатилган макроицтисодий сиё-сат му^им ицтисодий асос сифатида эътироф этилган. Узбекистон Республикасини 2030 йил-
гача комплекс ижтимоий-ицтисодий ривожлан-тириш концепциясини муваффациятли амалга ошириш, шубхасиз, ицтисодий ривожланиш-нинг ташци омилларига жиддий эътибор ца-ратишни тацозо этади. Бугунги кунда глобал ижтимоий-ицтисодий жараёнларни тартибга солиш масаласи халцаро мицёсдаги энг мухим масалалардан бири хисобланади. Жахон Савдо Ташкилоти (ЖСТ) куп томонлама савдо тизи-мининг хуцуций ва институционал органи си-фатида эркин товар айирбошлаш жараёнида турфа хил афзалликларга эга булган халцаро ташкилотдир. Айни пайтда ушбу ташкилотга 164 та давлат аъзо булиб, Узбекистоннинг ин-теграциялашуви эксперт ва олимлар уртасида турли мушохадаларга сабаб булмоцда.
Калит сузлар: ривожланиш мацсадлари, мо-лиявий-ицтисодий муносабатлар, 2030 йилга-ча ривожланиш концепцияси, ташци ицтисодий стратегия.
ВНЕШНЕЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ СТРАТЕГИЯ ИННОВАЦИОННОГО РАЗВИТИЯ ЭКОНОМИКИ УЗБЕКИСТАНА НА ПЕРИОД ДО 2030 ГОДА
Юсупов Асомиддин Соатович,
кандидат экономических наук, доцент Ташкентского государственного экономического университета
Аннотация. В концепции социально-экономического развития Узбекистана до 2030 года макроэкономическая политика, направленная на обеспечение устойчивого экономического роста и борьбу с бедностью, а также повышение конкурентоспособности национального экспорта, признана важной экономической основой. Успешная реализация Концепции комплексного социально-экономического развития Республики Узбекистан до 2030 года, несомненно, требует значительного внимания к внешним факторам экономического развития. На сегодняшний день вопрос регулирования глобальных социально-экономических процессов является одним из важнейших вопросов на международном уровне. Всемирная торговая организация (ВТО) как юридический и институциональный орган многосторонней торговой системы является международной организацией, пользующейся различными преимуществами в процессе свободного товарообмена. В настоящее время членами этой организации являются 164 страны, и интеграция Узбекистана в нее вызывает различные мнения среди экспертов и ученых.
Ключевые слова: цели развития, финансово-экономические отношения, концепция развития до 2030 года, внешнеэкономическая стратегия.
trade barriers forms an objective necessity to regulate international trade within the framework of international organizations such as the WTO, UNCTAD, and the OECD.
Theoretical and practical aspects of the strategy ofinternational economic cooperation have been scrutinized by the following foreign economists: R. Vernon, M. Porter, J. Saks, A. Warner, A. Marshall, S. Lindert, P. Krugman,
D.S. Mill, S. Boyzer, F. Keyrnkros, K. Haynes and others [3-13].
Moreover, maestros of economics, including A. Smith, D. Ricardo, D.S. Mill and J.B. Seylar, modern economists S. Harris,
E. Haksher, B. Olin, P. Samuelson, S. Linder, V. Leontyev, M. Porter, F. Peru and G. Myurdal assessed the international division of labor between countries, peoples and societies as the basis of economic cooperation [14].
Issues of development of trade and economic relations and deepening of cooperation within the CIS have been studied in detail by following scientists such as: A. Kireev, K. Lomakin, D. Madiyarova, A. Evdokimov, A. Subetto [15-19].
CIS integration expert N.Isingarin assesses international economic cooperation as internationalization of economic life of states and regions [20].
B. Islamov, Sh. Sharifkhodjaev, N. Sirojid-dinov, I. Mavlyanov, N. Tukhliev et al [21-25] have studied theoretical and practical aspects of integration and competitiveness of foreign trade in Uzbekistan.
The study of the main directions of the foreign economic strategy of Uzbekistan, with account of new world trends, determines the relevance of the chosen topic in this scientific article.
Materials and methodology
As a research methodology, deductive and inductive philosophical connections, sampling in the selection of the research object, reliability and validity in determining the research line, observation in determining the research strategy, experiment, archival research and other methods have been effectively used.
08.00.00 - ИКТИСОДИЕТ ФАНЛАРИ 08.00.00 - ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ 08.00.00 - ECONOMIC SCIENCES
Research findings as well as improvement of the population'
The analysis shows that addressing of welfare, is expected to have following potential existing socio-economic problems and threats, risks (Figure 1).
The intensification of the global economy and global competition will undoubtedly affect the efficiency of the factors of production._
In the context of maintaining a high level of the shadow economy, corruption may be an obstacle to the introduction of effective market mechanisms in the financial market.
Further aggravation of the employment problem in the context of rapid growth of labor resources in Uzbekistan.
In the context of high energy and resource consumption, labor productivity remains low.
The backwardness of the technological base of key industries and the problem of organizing new production facilities.
The share of agriculture in the gross value added remains high.
Orientation of domestic exports to raw materials.
Figure 1. Potential risks in addressing socio-economic problems and threats*
* Prepared by the author based on analytical data.
Achieving the following economic results in the period up to 2030 is a key factor in GDP:
- 2.1 times increment in the realistic GDP growth;
- growth of GDP per capita in foreign currency by 3 times (or from $1533 in 2018 to $4538);
- improved real production by 2.3 times (or its share in GDP from 26.3 % in 2018 to 33.3 % in 2030);
- increased construction work by 2.1 times (from 5.7 % to 6.4 %);
- increased the services sector by 2.1 times (from 35.6 % to 39.3 %);
- reduction of the share of agriculture by 1.8 times (from 32.4 % to 21 %);
- support the average annual economic growth rate of not less than 6.4 %;
- inclusion of Uzbekistan in the group of countries with above-average GDP per capita by 2030;
- reducing labor market tensions, halving the poverty rate.
This will require a threefold increase in production and export potential [26].
Ensuring sustainable economic growth, in turn, requires an increase in capital investment by 3.1 times and foreign direct investment by 7.0 times.
At the same time, strengthening of material, technical and financial capacities of the regions is considered as a key factor in creating productive jobs and increasing incomes.
The concept recognizes a sharp increase in investment in the economy and the transition to a system of their efficient use as the main goal of targeted investment policy aimed at sustainable economic growth and structural renewal.
This requires development of industrial production,formingupofspecializedeconomic zones in view of attracting private and foreign investments, effective use of benefits from industry clusters, small industrial zones, innovation centers and technology parks [27].
It is also being planned to moderate economic policy in the medium term, in the following areas:
- liberalization of the financial sector;
- increasing the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments;
- development of short-term interbank credit operations in foreign currency (swap, repa, etc.);
- and in the medium and long term, transition to inflation targeting of monetary policy aimed at stimulating the real sector of the economy.
In the first stage of implementation of the concept (2019-2021), a socio-economic policy aimed at improving the institutional framework of market relations, ensuring macroeconomic stability by increasing the production capacity of the real sector was implemented.
Ensuring the adaptation of the economy to new market conditions by providing social support to vulnerable groups of people and improving the level of human capital became the top priority.
At that stage, the development of commodity and financial markets was observed by curbing corruption and eliminating the shadow economy.
In the second phase (2022-2025), increasing resource efficiency is expected to increase the market and production capacity of processing industries, ensuring their connection to the global chain of value added creation.
At this stage, the pace of economic growth will improve through expansion of productive employment, upgrading the quality of services, industrialization of small businesses and transition to a new industrial policy.
In the third stage (2026-2030) rapid development of export-oriented economy will be observed by attracting non-traditional resources and energy sources to the manufacturing sector, as well as quality human capital, technical and technological development of sectors of the economy.
The strategic priorities set at each stage of the concept will, of course, lead to establishment of a systemic socio-economic policy and the creation of a healthy competitive environment.
It is known that, Uzbekistan, which is an integral part of the global financial and economic space, regards integration into WTO as one of the most important directions of the foreign economic strategy.
As President Sh. Mirziyoyev noted: "After all ... only a state that pays special attention to issues of a strong position in foreign markets will achieve high development, the welfare of the population is ensured".
In the process of "integration into the free trade system" the study into theoretical, methodological, and conceptual aspects of competitiveness raising strategy of the foreign trade, is becoming increasingly important.
The process of trade integration requires addressing of fundamental tasks related to the development of competitiveness increasing strategies of the foreign trade, as well as - to the development of theoretical and methodological approaches and scientific and practical recommendations.
Being an equal member of WTO has a positive impact on the development of a national economy in the long run. However, in the short term, it may also cause some challenges to national economic development.
EnsuringmaximumbenefitsforUzbekistan's trade integration, without a doubt, depends on how well the national export competitiveness strategy has been chosen.
Indeed, it is no coincidence that the Action Strategy has focused on the need to develop the country's export potential increasing concept.
Proponents of the theory of "new product life cycle" - M. Posner, G. Hufbauer, R. Vernon, the teachings of well-known American economists: A. Marshall and M. Porter as well as research conducted by WTO experts -confirm the importance of international trade in the integration of national economies into the world economy.
08.00.00 - ИКТИСОДИЕТ ФАНЛАРИ 08.00.00 - ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ 08.00.00 - ECONOMIC SCIENCES
In the words of J. Sachs: "Economic growth of any country in the world is based on the foreign trade. No country has yet been able to create a healthy economy in isolation from the world economy. "
The analysis shows that in 2018, Uzbekistan ranked 89th among the TOP 100 countries in terms of gross exports by 0.05 % of world exports, and as of January 1, 2020, it ranked 83rd with a rate of 0.06 %.
However, according to this indicator: China ranks first in the world (12.9 and 13.3 %); The United States ranks second in the world (8.6 and 8.3 %); Germany ranked 3rd (8.1 and 7.6 %); the Russian Federation ranked 14th (2.3 and 1.9 %); India ranked 18-19 (1.7 and 1.6 %); Kazakhstan ranked 50-51 (0.3 and 0.3 %).
The issue of enhancing the international prestige of Uzbekistan makes it necessary to find best ways to further accelerate the export base development.
Herewith, it is worth mentioning of the following macroeconomic problems that affect expansion of the export potential of the republic:
- ongoing monopoly on production of certain types of goods and services;
- use of obsolete technologies with low production capacity and high capital costs;
- poor financial situation in most industrial companies and limited opportunities to invest in promising export-oriented projects, i.e., to universalize the type of activity;
- inadequate systems of quality control, packaging, and certification of export of domestically made products;
- lack of information for domestic exporters;
- lack of reliable transport and logistics infrastructure for transportation of export goods, insufficient shipping ports and consignment warehouses and dealer networks in foreign countries (container transportation 7% of the total);
- lack of good knowledge and practical experience in the field of foreign trade with local companies, slow pace of international marketing research and advertising;
- the system of state support and incentives for exporters is not adapted to WTO requirements.
The current export strategy is becoming an integral part of the system of ensuring economic security, achieving sustainable economic growth and improving the living standards of citizens.
The export strategy provides following advantages for Uzbekistan (Figure 2).
[Advantages! of export strategy
-,....... . ... V \ MaiiagOitiiilt ((uHlitv: Wilt Tixihjii'toSiCal ttfogfesS is: I>itei:i;ilio:i;il
-/\L>nit\ to use tmiirea j ■ j i ■ j - - -ti 1
. . : fj...... .. . . . . . increase, desian. and accelerating, production is . competitiveness- will be
resource! emcteMly in Mie : H controlwill be organized on the basisof ensured: through ■ lace at unlimited1 needs "v.-. . ;.,... , - . ; , , ■'■i-'-V ' ' ., ' '. '•.. ..............................-..-..-. established modem knowledge ■. specialization and austerity
! ! !-!■! ! !-!■!-!■! ! !-!■!-!■! ! Hie dbitunaiice'oi'r.T.v ' ' ' :
■:Thróúgh: the import of materialsméxportswillbe v - ■
modern technologies.: local ^XeUwWtÄeign; :
raw materials are X expanse-learnings will
; pressed, wiM-:addçd ; ¡^к^Ш md fore1^ Ьоис>™8 Wl11 : - products !are created solvency, will be X
• ' strengthened
; international trade will grow-due to the expansion of markets
I
Modem, communications.
information: exchange- : networks: and niarket (nftastmçtùiewilihe : : formed:
: Long-term economic growth will be ensured in-the: country h : and тану jobs : will -be created
Figure 2. Advantages of the export strategy for the economy of Uzbekistan*
* Author's development. Based on analytical data.
Research based on the analysis of the world market confirms that an export strategy depends on several stage factors.
Conclusions
The long-term concept of solving the problems associated with the current structural deformation of the national economy requires the following:
First, improving the quality and the role of human capital in the country's economy. As, a high share of informal employment (up to 40 %) is observed in some regions of the country. This is reflected on the growing demand for certain specialties. It is therefore advisable to:
- improve the innovative material and technical base of the education system;
- ensure a territorial balance of demand for personnel trained in specialties;
- achieve a rational distribution of income;
- put an end to weak social protection;
- eliminate inclusion associated with the misuse of natural resources.
Second, to further increase the scientific and technical potential. To do this:
- strengthening of innovation-corporate cooperation between scientific institutions and real sectors of the economy;
- ensuring introduction of innovations and new technologies into production.
Third, to prevent global economic threats and the negative effects and trends of industrialization in the development of the Uzbek economy.
Fourth, to improve the legal framework in the field of regulation of economic relations and mechanisms for implementation of other normative legal acts. It is known that, in the system of public administration there are immediate management mechanisms related to unsystematic use and non-control of responsibility.
Fifth, putting an end to vulnerability of financial condition of state-owned enterprises. It is known that, in the conditions of chronic shortage of own working capital, a breakdown of payment relations leads to the breakdown of relations between economic entities. In general, continued development of the country's economy will lead to the aimless development of the real sector of the economy and a sharp decline in economic growth.
Indeed, the 2030 Concept - taking into account the development trends of the world economy should be addressed at the issues of mitigating the negative effects of external factors on the country's economy, ensuring positive demographic trends in the labor market, improving the production capacity of the regions, increasing employment and welfare, ensuring the comprehensive development of the economy.
It is, certainly, no coincidence that the goals of effective economic reforms were set in the Development Strategy of New Uzbekistan, designed for 2022-2026, aimed at macroeconomic stability and transformation of sectors of the economy.
REFERENCES
1. Yusupov A.S. Tashqi savdo raqobatbardoshligini oshirish strategiyasi [Strategy for increasing foreign trade competitiveness]. Tashkent, Printuz, 2020, 214 p.
2. Yusupov A.S. Export strategy in trade integration process. Foreign economic activity in post-pandemic conditions: problems and solutions (experience of foreign countries). Proceedings of the Republican scientific-practical conference, Tashkent, TSUOS, 2021, December 4.
3. Vernon R. International investment and international trade in the product cycle. Qwarterly Journal of Economics, 1966, May, vol. LXXX, pp. 190-207.
4. Porter M. Konkurentnaya strategiya: metodika analiza otrasley i konkurentov [Competitive Strategy: A Methodology for Industry and Competitor Analysis]. 3rd ed. Moscow, Alpina Business Books, 2007.
5. Sachs D. Why Competitiveness Counts? The Global Competitiveness Report, 1996.
6. Sachs J.D., Warner A.M. The Global Competitiveness Report, 2000. Available at: http://web.mit.edu/.
7. Marshall A. Principles of Economics. 8th ed. Macmillan and Co., Ltd, 1920.
8. Lindert P.H. Ekonomika mirokhozyaystvennykh svyazey [Economics of World Economic Relations]. Transl. from English, ed. by O.V. Ivanov. Moscow, Progress, 1992.
9. Krugman P.R., Obstfeld M. International economics: theory and policy. 7th ed. 2006.
10. Mill J.S. Principles of Political economy. Cambridge, 1848.
11. Boisier S. The Elusive goal of regional development: between the black box and the political agenda. Essays Series Documents 1995/30. Latin American and Caribbean Institute for Economic and Social Planning, Santiago de Chile, 1997, March.
12. Cairncross F. The death of distance. Boston Mass., Harvard Business School Press, 1997.
13. Haynes K., Dinc M. Regional cohesion competition in the age of globalization. Eds. by H. Kohno, P. Nijkamp, J. Poot Edward Elgar Publ., 2000.
14. Galaeva N.A., Makhmudov B.M. Mezhdunarodnyye ekonomicheskiye otnosheniya [International economic relations]. Tashkent, Tashkent Finance Institute, 2003, 203 p.
15. Trade multilateralism in the twenty-first century: building the upper floors of the trading system through WTO accessions. Ed. by A. Kireyev, Ch. Osakwe. 2017. ISBN: 9781108367745.
16. Lomakin V.K. Mirovaya ekonomika [International economic relations]. 4th ed. Moscow, YuNITI-DANA, 2014, 671 p.
17. Madiyarova D.M. Ekonomika integratsii. Monografiya/ pod red. Madiyarovoy D.M. - Astana, 2016. IP «Bulatov A.J».
18. Yevdokimov A.I. Mezhdunarodnyye ekonomicheskiye otnosheniya [International Economic Relations]. 2th ed. Ed. Yevdokimova A.I. Moscow, Prospekt, 2013.
19. Subetto A. Globalizatsiya kak forma ustanovleniya novogo mirovogo poryadka, mirovoy finansovoy kapitallokratii - tupik istorii chelovechestva [Globalization as a form of establishing a new world order, world financial capitalocracy - a dead end in human history]. Dialogue and interaction between East and West civilizations: alternatives for the 21st century. Proceedings of the 4th International Kondratev Conference. 2001, May 15-16. Moscow, IFC, 2001.
20. Federer R. Yevraziyskaya ekonomicheskaya integratsiya v ramkax SNG (mezhdunarodno-pravovyye aspekty) [Eurasian economic integration within the framework of the CIS (international legal aspects)]. Available at: http://www.eurasialegal.info/index.php?option=com_content&view=arti cle&id=1306:2012-06-15-07-36-28&catid=1:Eurasian integration&Itemid=1/.
21. Islamov B. Systemic Transformation and sustainable development: case of Uzbekistan. Jakarta, Gumadarma University Press, 2016, Part I.
22. Sharifkhodzhayev Sh.A., Vokhidova M.Kh. Neobkhodimost' uluchsheniya innovatsionnoy infrastruktury v strane [The need to' improve the innovation infrastructure in the country]. Ekonomika i finansy - Economics and Finance, Tashkent, 2018, no. 5, pp. 61-66.
23. Sirozhiddinov N. Puti integratsii ekonomiki Uzbekistana v mirovoye khozyaystvo: poisk optimal'nykh varintov [Ways to integrate the economy of Uzbekistan into the world economy: the search for optimal options]. Xalqaro munosabatlar - International relations, 2020, no. 3-4, pp. 29-40.
24. Mavlyanov I.R. Ekonomicheskaya diplomatiya [Economic diplomacy]. 2th ed. Moscow, Aspekt Press Publ., 2016.
25. To'xliev N. Taraqqiyotning o'zbek modeli [The Uzbek model of development]. Tashkent, O'zbekiston milliy entsiklopediyasi State Scientific Publ. House, 2012.
26. The concept of complex socio-economic development of the Republic of Uzbekistan until 2030.
27. 2020 Environmental Performance Index. Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy. Available at: https://envirocenter.yale.edu/2020-environmental-performance-index/.
28. Mirziyoev Sh.M. Together we will build a free and prosperous, democratic state of Uzbekistan. Speech at the joint session of the chambers of the Oliy Majlis dedicated to the inauguration of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Tashkent, Uzbekistan NMIU, 2017, 32 p.
29. The Global Food Security Index: Exploring challenges & developing solutions. Available at: https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/.
30. Broocks A., Biesebroeck J.V. The impact of export promotion on export market entry. Journal of International Economics, 2017, vol. 107, pp. 19-33. Available at: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jie/.
31. Gandolfo G. International trade theory and policy. 1998th ed. Available at: https://www.amazon. com/International-Theory-Policy-Giancarlo-Gandolfo/dp/.
Reviewer:
Ermatov Sh.Zh., PhD., Associate Professor, Head of the Department of East countries' Economy, Tashkent State University of Oriental Studies.
