CC BY
0FORECASTING AND PLANNING METHODOLOGY
Kholikulov A.N.
Ph.D., associate professor of department "Economic analysis and statistics", SamIES
Qodirov Sh.B.
Student of SamIES
Abstract. In this article, the authors studied the processes of macroeconomic analysis and their essence, theoretical aspects of forecasting macroeconomic processes. In addition, proposals and recommendations have been developed to take into account the specific characteristics of forecasting and the analysis of factors.
Key words: economy, macroeconomics, analysis, forecasting.
Forecasting in the socio-economic field combines three groups of functions: theoretical-cognitive, predictive and managerial. Forecasting functions: Anticipating development trends of the forecasted object (the economy of a country, region, enterprise, market, etc.) due to factors affecting its dynamics. Anticipating the reaction of this object to a particular planning or market decision, the possible consequences of the implementation of this decision (construction of a new enterprise, entering the market with a new product, changing the tax rate, etc.).
After a decision has been made and has begun to be implemented, it is necessary to continue to predict the course and consequences of its implementation in order to adjust or cancel the decision in time if the conditions for its implementation have radically changed. When developing a plan, it is necessary to comply with a number of requirements, the most important of which are:
1. Optimality, which presupposes a plan option when resource requirements are minimal, and the final result according to financial and other criteria is the best and, as a rule, the timing of the event is minimal.
2. Certainty, in which the established indicators and other conditions must be specified in terms of magnitude and deadlines, justified and implementable.
3. The plan must clearly define goals and objectives. The plan is drawn up in the form of a special document.
After its adoption by the relevant management body, organizational work begins on the practical implementation of the plan. Requirements that forecasts must satisfy:
a) forecast variability;
b) a high degree of objectivity and reliability of forecast estimates;
c) the complexity of the forecast, covering the characteristics of all the most important spheres of the economy and social life;
d) balance between the estimates contained in the various structural blocks of the forecast;
e) continuity of forecasting, based on the contingency - informational, functional and methodological - of forecasts relating to different forecasting periods.
Functions of target programming - identifying key points (priorities) of socioeconomic development that allow solving major problems; concentration of forces and resources on solving a limited number of strategic tasks; mutual linkage of programs with each other and with other blocks of the economy. Conditions and factors for the development of the role of forecasting, planning and programming in regulating the economy:
1. The increasing dependence of processes in each individual country on economic and socio-political processes in the outside world significantly increases the importance of interaction between national centers of forecasting and planning work with similar centers of global orientation.
2. A sharp aggravation on a global scale of the problem of shortage of energy and other natural resources - the development of the deep potential of new knowledge and scientific and technological innovations that make it possible to use resource-saving technologies and greatly increase the final efficiency of the economy - scientific and technological forecasting.
3. Interaction of public and private forms of government in all matters of strategic regulation of development.
4. Development of transnational corporations (TNCs) and other business structures of national and regional scale.
5. Manifestation of regional features of socio-economic policy. The genetic (exploratory) approach proceeds from an analysis of the prehistory of the development of an object (macroeconomic system), records its fundamental factors, determines the features of development, deduces stable trends and patterns, and on this basis hypotheses and conclusions are drawn regarding the projected object in the future.
The normative (teleological) approach reflects the possibility and necessity of purposeful influence on predicted macroeconomic processes, based on an understanding of the needs of society, the goals put forward and the resource base. A forecasting method is a method, an algorithm for developing a forecast. In relation to the socio-economic system (for example, to the national economy as a whole or to its regional blocks), there are three main groups of forecasting methods:
1) heuristic (based on research and disclosure of the previously unknown), among which the most used are methods of expert assessments;
2) factual (based on the logical analysis of facts, statistical data and forecast estimates using, for example, mathematical models);
3) complex (combined).
In a market economy, when developing any forecast, the following are taken into account:
1. Forms of organization of material flows. The overwhelming majority of all types of products are sold freely. In this regard, it is possible to develop a reliable forecast of capacity utilization in a particular production only on the basis of detailed information about the situation in commodity markets.
2. Methods of generating cash flows. Financial resources have largely come out of the sphere of direct government regulation. Therefore, it is important to determine what volumes private capital will reach and where it will be directed.
3. Price dynamics and their impact on production and distribution. Now it is impossible to obtain a single reliable forecast for production without knowing the price situation.
4. Internal convertibility of the ruble. It is known in which industries foreign currency is earned, and in which it is needed for import. The forecast determines its movement, the transition from one owner to another. The methodology for forecasting and planning economic development determines the basic principles, approaches and methods of carrying out forecast and planning calculations, reveals and characterizes the logic of the formation of forecasts, plans and their implementation.
Standards reflect social requirements for performance results and characterize the required level of resource use. The set of rules and regulations used to develop planning documents is called the regulatory framework. Balance sheet planning method. The balance method consists of balancing the results of production activities on the one hand and the resources expended on the other. There are material, cost and labor balances. The algorithm for using the balance sheet method for macroeconomic planning can be presented in the form of the following interconnected stages:
1. Calculation of final consumption of various types of products;
2. Determination of technological coefficients;
3. Calculation of gross production of industries;
4. Determination of norms for labor costs and "fair" prices for product sales.
References
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