CC BY
2
УДК: 08.00.01
Bakieva I.A.
Khakimova M.
Yuldasheva D.
TFI, Uzbekistan
MACROECONOMICS TOOLS
Annotation: This article discusses the new priorities of the reforms that require improving the methods of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting for a more accurate assessment of the results of economic policy
Key words: Economy, method, reform, macroeconomics, analysis, forecast, policy
The Strategy for Action in the five priority areas of development of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2017-2021 defines the most important tasks of deepening economic reforms. They are primarily associated with the need to liberalize economic relations, ensure macroeconomic stability and sustainability of economic growth. New policy objectives are aimed at enhancing the role of the private sector, maintaining an equilibrium exchange rate, reducing the tax burden, liberalizing prices, eliminating existing price disparities and curbing inflation, mitigating the effects of external challenges and threats, and increasing the competitiveness of the economy. This also makes new demands on the methods of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting used.
There is a need for more reliable tools that allow a more objective and qualitative assessment of economic policy measures and an indirect effect on socio-economic processes.
New priorities of ongoing reforms require improvement.
methods of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting for a more accurate assessment of the results of economic policy.
As international experience shows, a fundamentally significant tool in this regard is the development of models based on the "Input-output model" table, SAM (social accounting matrix model) model and CGE (computable general equilibrium model) general equilibrium model. the basis of the widespread use of multivariate econometric analysis methods that effectively address macroeconomic issues. Work on evaluating the effectiveness of economic policy instruments, conducting a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic processes, and also on preparing multivariate scenarios for the development of the economy in support of decisions made in Uzbekistan began in 1995. However, the problems associated with the dominance of administrative methods in managing the economy of Uzbekistan, the weakness and lack of demand for market instruments of macroeconomic policy, coupled with the limited statistical data, postponed the practical use of these models for a long period.
What models do we need?
In world practice, there are two main directions of development and application of macroeconomic models - econometric and interdisciplinary modeling (input-output model, social accounting matrix model), on the basis of
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which an absolute majority of macroeconomic estimates and forecasts are developed.
The Input-Output Model model provides a more detailed analysis of the structure of the economy in a balanced matrix form. On the basis of taking into account the closeness of inter-branch relations, the model allows to solve a number of tasks regarding the production and costs of goods and services, intermediate and final demand, income generation in the context of a wide range of economic activities.
There is a need for more reliable tools that allow more objectively and qualitatively evaluate economic policy measures.
In turn, the "Cost-Release" model provides the basis for developing a more advanced model based on SAM, which allows you to expand the capabilities of the "Cost-Release" model itself, with an additional selection in the matrix structure of economic agents, such as private, public, foreign, and monetary sectors. SAM design studies conducted in many countries and the study of their experience were important in adapting it to Uzbekistan. The adaptation of the model consisted in estimating the SAM indicators taking into account the features of the existing information and statistical base, determining the methods of data collection and processing.
In Uzbekistan, since 1996, research has been launched on the adaptation of the standard SAM (social accounting matrix SAM) model, based on the "Costs — Output" table, which allows modeling the interaction between industries and sectors of the economy. It was these studies conducted earlier in Uzbekistan that created the basis and made it possible to build a holistic SAM structure based on 2014 information, identify a system of internal and external variable models, improve methods for calculating source data and refine the coefficient base, form systems of linear equations of the model and test the results of their solution. for compliance with baseline values. The report presented at the round table reviewed methodological approaches to modeling with a description of the system of equations and blocks of models, taking into account the characteristics and conditions of the economy of Uzbekistan, modeling policy options and the growth of output of individual industries, proposals for the development of models.
Where to go? The transition of statistics to the system of national accounts in Uzbekistan led to an improvement in the methodology of macroeconomic analysis, in particular, the construction of the table "Costs — Output". At the same time, an important problem in working with intersectoral models is obtaining more correct sectoral data on the structure of direct costs for the production of goods, goods, works and services.
In world practice, there are two main directions of development and application of macroeconomic.
Models - Econometric and Interindustry Modeling.
The obtained data on costs, mainly of large enterprises, do not fully reflect the technological processes and the emerging inter-sectoral relationships in the economy in the context of its multi-structuredness.
The basic macroeconomic indicators are not balanced between the statistics of financial and economic bodies due to their lack of practice in practice through the preparation of financial programs, the incomplete transformation period of statistics meeting the requirements of international standards, etc. A major problem in calculating savings is working capital estimates.
The following measures will enhance the capabilities of the models used:
- once every five years of work on the statistical evaluation of the direct costs of producing products, goods, works and services with a breakdown into domestic and import components, based on the methods of complete examination of all enterprises and organizations, regardless of their size and type;
- ensuring the consistency and balance of statistical indicators of national accounts (accounts of production, education and use of income, operations with capital), as well as the ratios of production, consumption and accumulation of goods and services produced in the economy;
- improvement of calculations in a single format of indicators of "clean" industries (structure of intermediate and final demand, value added, output, disposable resources, calculation of changes in working capital stocks, etc.);
- Improving the comprehensiveness of statistical data for an objective assessment of indicators of industries and sectors of the economy, which are not carried out one-time surveys, costs, production and sales of products, goods and services;
- monitoring changes in sectoral prices, defining industry deflators for converting cost indicators to constant prices;
- systematic carrying out a comprehensive analysis of the structure of costs, labor productivity and profitability of the output of industries.
In addition, further functional binding of the model to the goals and objectives of the economy is necessary. In order to expand the range of tasks and justify macroeconomic policy assessments, it is necessary to continue work on the functional binding of the model to the conditions of the economy of Uzbekistan, namely:
- reflected in the structure model of the most important industries for which Uzbekistan has comparative advantages, as well as industries that have a significant impact on the development of other industries;
- improvement of the structuring of the model, its coefficients and parameters of equations describing the processes of formation of investments, final consumption of households, government revenues and expenditures, savings, remittances and other foreign trade operations;
- improving the description of the model equations and deepening the degree of economic interpretation of the results obtained.
An important problem in working with intersectoral models is to get more correct industry data on the structure of direct costs for production of products, goods, works and services.
A promising direction in the development of "Cost-Output" models and SAM is also their adaptation to a model assessment of the consistency of forecast
indicators developed in the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals of Uzbekistan (CURS), covering such tasks as sustainable economic growth, rationalization of employment, poverty reduction and income inequalities, the improvement of the resource and energy efficiency of the economy, the quality of services provided, the solution of environmental problems and others that require the continuation of research in this direction.
Constructed model tools allow in the future to move to the construction of computable general equilibrium models (CGE) for Uzbekistan, which are aimed at ensuring the macroeconomic equilibrium of supply and demand.
What does this give us? During the discussion of the presented analytical report, the following important points were noted.
The modern economy is a complex system with numerous internal interrelations, susceptibility to external factors and requires the use of modern models, including the model "Costs — Output" based on modern information technologies. The completed studies have shown that there are good opportunities in the republic for the formation of intersectoral models for macroeconomic analysis and evaluation of the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy instruments.
Among the main results of the study it should be noted that in the theoretical construction of models adopted in international practice, the authors of the study were able to adequately reflect the specifics of the national economy of Uzbekistan. By altering the equations and adapting the model to specific problems and directions of macroeconomic policy using the scenario approach, one can also model the processes of liberalization of the economy of Uzbekistan. This will make it possible to assess both the positive consequences of the transition from the current to the equilibrium state of the economy, and the costs arising from this.
The results of the study allow to approach the assessment of the level of macroeconomic balance on a new methodological basis, to identify the specific features of the economy of Uzbekistan, the degree of balance of the parameters of macroeconomic policy covering all of its leading sectors and industries. This is of great practical importance in reflecting the existing patterns characteristic of the economy of Uzbekistan, and can also be used to assess the sensitivity of the economy to various shocks and external influences.
For the development of forecasts of interest is a joint Malaysian-American model of EEM. Within this model, supply and demand, state and non-state, real and banking sectors, trade and balance of payments, world sector, exchange rates and other factors that have a decisive impact on the macroeconomic dynamics are integrated. On its basis, various variants of fiscal policy (assessment of the effects of changes in tax rates and government spending), monetary policy, exchange rate policy, and many other aspects of macroeconomic policy are developed.
In Russia, a special program for developing an inter-sectoral balance (MOB) for the production and distribution of products and services using the SNA methodology has been adopted and implemented. One of the results of building the inter-branch model was the development of the equilibrium inter-branch model of the Russian economy RIM (Russian Interindustry Model). It describes the state,
production capabilities and dynamics of development of various sectors of the economy. Its branch structure is based on the 18-branch MOB. The results of forecast calculations using this model are used in the development of medium-term scenarios for the development of the Russian economy. In Russia, an analysis of the state of the economy is carried out on the basis of a matrix of financial flows; studies are being conducted on using SAM to assess external influences on the regional economy and determine the size and structure of a regional product.
Studies on modeling the economy in India were conducted in several directions on various types of models, ranging from static models (input-output), dynamic models of the optimization plan and econometric models to numerical models of general equilibrium (computable general equilibrium (CGE) model). Basically, in India, the standard SAM model (social accounting matrix model) is actively used, based on the "Cost-Output" table and allowing to model the interaction between sectors and sectors of the economy.
Georgia built its own model based on the Leontief model input-output model. The model is built on the 16 main sectors of the economy and allows for the development of the economy according to various projects within a certain period of time and taking measures to prevent imbalance in the economy.
There is an experience of building social accounts SAM (social accounting matrix model) in more than 40 countries of the world. For example, in the USA and the Netherlands, SAM is used in the form of annual balances of macro indicators of the development of the national economy. In Ecuador and Morocco, this model is used to calculate the impact of agriculture on other industries. In India and Vietnam, there is a wide experience of using SAM to assess the impact of various policies on key macroeconomic economies, such as GDP, inflation, the trade deficit, and the state budget deficit.
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