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27RETRACTED / QAYTARILDI/ ОТОЗВАНА
Date of retraction: 01.07.2023.
The reason for the retraction: Plagiarism (incorrect borrowing) in the publication.
Additional information about the causes of retraction:
The withdrawal of the article was caused by the illegal borrowing of Bahromov Azizbek Alisher ugli in an unacceptable volume of the results of scientific research by Tursunov Bobir Ortikmirzaevich
Дата ретракции: 01.07.2023.
Причина ретракции: Плагиат (некорректные заимствования) в публикации.
Дополнительная информация о причинах ретракции:
Изъятие статьи вызвано неправомерным заимствованием Бахромова Азизбек Алишер уFли в недопустимом объеме результатов научных исследований Турсунова Бобир Ортикмирзаевича (Турсунов Б.О. Узбекистан саноат тармоFи молиявий хавфсизлигини таъминлашда циклик динамикаси тах,лили // "UzBridge" электрон журнали. 2021. №1. С. 85-94. Источник: электронный ресурс URL https://uzbridge.eyuf.uz/maqolalar/B_Tursunov.pdf
Qayta ko'rib chiqish sanasi: 01.07.2023. Retraksiya sababi: nashrda plagiat mavjud. Retraksiya sabablari haqida qo'shimcha ma'lumot:
Maqolaning olib qo'yilishiga Bahromov Azizbek Alisher uglining Tursunov Bobir Ortiqmirzayevich tomonidan olib borilgan ilmiy tadqiqot natijalarining nomaqbul hajmida noqonuniy plagiat olishi sabab bo'ldi.
International journal of theoretical and practical research
Scientific Journal
Year: 2023 Issue: 2 Volume: 3 Published: 28.02.2023
http://alferganus.uz
Citation:
Baxromov, A.A. (2023). Financial security in the textile industry to increase the economic efficiency of industrial enterprises. SJ International journal of theoretical and practical research, 3 (02), 27-37.
Baxromov, A.A. (2023). Financial security in the textile industry to increase the economic efficiency of industrial enterprises. Nazariy va amaliy tadqiqotlar xalqaro jurnali, 3 (02), 27-37.
QR-Article
Baxromov, Azizbek Alisher o'g'li
Ph.D. student of Fergana Polytechnic Institute ORCID ID: 0000-0001-6297-0828
E-mail:
aliwerovichazizbek@gmail. com
Doi:
https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7699499
DOI lQ.5281/zenodo.7G99499
UDC 338.45
FINANCIAL SECURITY IN THE TEXTILE INDUSTRY TO INCREASE THE ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES
Abstract. In this paper have been provided a cluster analysis of the industrial sector in ensuring financial security in the textile industry of the country. For the purpose of preliminary analysis, the author dynamically assessed the regional differences in the values of generalization indicators of operational efficiency and factor indicators of production efficiency. The summary groups of regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan are analyzed in terms of the parameters of the trend-cyclical components of the dynamics of industrial production. The actual annual rates of industrial production are analyzed according to model data in the Republic of Uzbekistan. Based on the calculations of the progressive and cyclical components of industrial production in the regions of Uzbekistan, a cluster analysis was carried out, which made it possible to identify regions with the same progressive and cyclical components of the dynamics. Keywords: textile, industry, econom ciency, regional specificity, textile, industry, profitability, net profit, factors, patte
SANOAT KO ^ ODIY SAMARADORLIGNI OSHIRISH
YO'LIDA TO'QIMACHILIK SANOATIDA MOLIYAVIY XAVFSIZLIK
Annotatsiya. Ushbu maqolada mamlakat to'qimachilik sanoatida moliyaviy xavfsizlikni ta'minlashda sanoat sektorining klaster tahlili keltirilgan. Dastlabki tahlil qilish uchun muallif operatsion samaradorlikning umumlashtirish ko'rsatkichlari va ishlab chiqarish samaradorligining omil ko'rsatkichlari qiymatlaridagi mintaqaviy farqlarni dinamik ravishda baholadi. Sanoat ishlab chiqarish dinamikasining tendentsiya-tsiklik tarkibiy qismlari parametrlari bo'yicha O'zbekiston Respublikasi hududlarining yig'ma guruhlari tahlil qilingan. Sanoat ishlab chiqarishining haqiqiy yillik sur'atlari O'zbekiston Respublikasida namunaviy ma'lumotlar bo'yicha tahlil qilinadi. O 'zbekiston hududlarida sanoat ishlab chiqarishining progressiv va tsiklik tarkibiy qismlarining hisob-kitoblari asosida klaster tahlili o'tkazildi, bu esa dinamikaning bir xil progressiv va tsiklik tarkibiy qismlariga ega bo'lgan hududlarni aniqlash imkonini berdi.
Kalit so'zlar: to'qimachilik, sanoat, iqtisodiy samaradorlik, hududiy o'ziga xoslik, to'qimachilik, sanoat, rentabellik, soffoyda, omillar, naqshlar.
Baxromov, Azizbek Alisher o'g'li
Farg'ona Politexnika Instituti tayanch doktoranti
ORCID ID: 0000-0001-6297-0828
E-mail: aliwerovichazizbek@gmail. com
Бахромов, Азизбек Алишер yFли
Базовый докторант Ферганского Политехнического Института
ORCID ID: 0000-0001-6297-0828 E-mail: aliwerovichazizbek@gmail. com
ФИНАНСОВАЯ БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ В ТЕКСТИЛЬНОЙ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТИ ДЛЯ ПОВЫШЕНИЯ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ ПРОМЫШЛЕННЫХ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЙ
Аннотация. В статье представлен кластерный анализ промышленного сектора в обеспечении финансовой безопасности текстильной промышленности страны. Для предварительного анализа автором проведена динамическая оценка региональных различий значений обобщающих показателей операционной эффективности и факторных показателей производственной эффективности. Сводные группы регионов Республики Узбекистан проанализированы по параметрам трендовый циклических составляющих динамики промышленного производства. Проанализированы фактические годовые темпы промышленного производства по модельным данным в Республике Узбекистан. На основе расчетов прогрессивной и циклической составляющих промышленного производства в регионах Узбекистана проведен кластерный анализ, который позволил выявить регионы с одинаковыми поступательной и циклической составляющей динамики.
Ключевые слова: текстиль, промышленность, экономическая эффективность, региональная специфика, текстильная отрасль, рентабельность, чистая прибыль, факторы, закономерность.
Introduction
In various countries, the pandemic has led to a drop in cotton prices, reduced export and import volumes, supply chain disruptions, and reduced production. This process did not limit the textile industry of Uzbekistan. If we refer to statistical figures, the number of industrial enterprises and organizations in our country reached 78,500. 15.7 percent higher than the same period of 2022. In particular, our textile industry has become one of the rapidly developing segments of the economy of Uzbekistan.
In addition, it is a leading sector in terms of attracting foreign investments and exporting products. But 2022 has been a year of trials for the whole world. The coronavirus has threatened not only human health, but also the world economy. As a result, a tense situation arose in all areas. Because of this, countries are forced to take emergency measures to combat the spread of the coronavirus it happened.
On the basis of programs for comprehensive socio-economic development of regions for 2022 - 2026, regional development programs are developed every year, after in-depth study of the problems and opportunities of all districts and cities [1].
As a result, appropriate measures were determined in time, and the activities of enterprises began to be restored. The rate of production and export continued to grow.
The main factor determining the development of any enterprise is its financial security, therefore the issue of managing the financial security of enterprises is urgent.
Literature review
Ensuring the financial stability of enterprises is financial methodological foundations of improving management, developing financial strategy of enterprises and assessing financial stability have been widely studied in the scientific works of foreign authors. A. Marshall [2], J. Mill [3], D. Ricardo [4], A. Smith [5] and many other representatives of the classical school of economic theory dealt with the issues of financial security theory.
Issues of financial security, threats to financial security and their prevention strategies Amade S.M. [6], Amirsele A. [7], Amore L. [8], Ahmad S. [9], de Deriyan [10], V. Delas [11] and other scientists have also researched.
A number of studies have been conducted by economists of the CIS countries on the problems of assessing and managing the economic and financial security of enterprises, including those based on the concept of competitiveness; development of a management concept implementation mechanism aimed at creating a modern system of financial risk management in credit financial organizations; prevention of bankruptcy and merger with another enterprise; Monte Carlo for financial risk management analyze the model; conceptual aspects of financial and economic risk assessment in enterprises; management of financial risks arising in the process of mergers and acquisitions based on mutual cooperation with shareholders; ensuring the financial stability of joint-stock enterprises, developing organizational and economic methods and models for ensuring the financial security of the enterprise, etc.
The issues of ensuring economic security and financial security at the macro and micro levels, their evaluation and management are discussed by the scientists of our country - A. Burkhanov [12], Kh. Abulqosimov [13], M. Pardaev [14], D. Artikova [15], D. Istamov [16], A. Ishmukhammedov [17] and others have also found their reflection. The works of the mentioned authors undoubtedly contribute a great deal to the theory of ensuring the financial security of the enterprise. But due to the complexity and multifacetedness of the problem of ensuring the financial security of the enterprise, all its aspects have not been sufficiently explored in these studies. There is a need to scientifically substantiate the use of generally accepted methods of management in order to ensure and evaluate the financial security of enterprises, to adapt the experience of foreign countries to the conditions of Uzbekistan, to develop the methodology of ensuring the financial security of enterprises in accordance with the enterprises of our country.
However, due to the complexity and multifacetedness of the problem of ensuring the financial security of the enterprise, all its aspects have not been sufficiently explored in these studies. To ensure the financial security of enterprises and to evaluate it, to adapt the experience of foreign experts to the conditions of Uzbekistan, to develop the methodology of ensuring the financial security of enterprises in accordance with the enterprises of our country, to scientifically justify the use of generally accepted methods of management there is a need. In this case, it will be necessary to carry out an analysis of the cyclical dynamics of the industrial sector in order to ensure financial security in the textile sector of Uzbekistan.
Research Methodology
The research methodology was implemented in three stages. First parameters of the progressive trend and cyclical components of industrial production dynamics in the regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan were evaluated. This makes it possible to identify regions with general and specific characteristics of progressive and cyclical dynamics of industrial production as a whole. In the second stage, regions were clustered based on the similarity of the obtained model parameters. In the third, final stage of the research, it was determined that the cyclical dynamics of the textile industry depends on the dynamics of industrial production in Uzbekistan. In conducting the research, we used the industrial development in the regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan published on the website of the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan. We used the data on the growth rates of the output. Also, data on the growth rates of textile products in the Republic of Uzbekistan were used.
Analysis and results
Analysis of the financial stability of enterprises taking into account the impact of macroeconomic conditions in certain time periods in the economic literature cases are presented. For example, in the work "Modeling the financial stability of an enterprise taking into account macroeconomic indicators" [18], the authors describe the financial stability of enterprises in the metallurgical industry as macroeconomic they learn using mathematical models that include parameters of dynamic models of indicators. This gave the authors the opportunity to take into account the special conditions of their activity in different periods when defining the models of financial stability of enterprises.
The same issue is relevant for the industry of the Republic of Uzbekistan as a whole, as well as for its textile industry. The main hypothesis adopted by the author during this study was as follows: the development (dynamics) of the textile industry in the regions is directly depends on the dynamics of industrial production as a whole. This hypothesis is based on the hypothesis that by analyzing the progressive and cyclical components of the dynamics of industrial production in the country, it is possible to reveal the dependence of the progressive and cyclical dynamics of production on the sectors and branches of the region. Research methodology is a three-step procedure. At the first stage, the parameters of the progressive (tendency) and cyclic components of industrial production dynamics in the territories of the Republic of Uzbekistan were evaluated [19]. That's all allows to identify regions with general and specific characteristics of progressive and cyclical dynamics of industrial production. In the second stage, regions were clustered based on the similarity of the obtained model parameters. In the third, final stage of the research, it was determined that the cyclical dynamics of the textile industry depends on the dynamics of industrial production in Uzbekistan. While conducting the research, we, the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan, will publish an announcement on the website we used data on the growth rates of industrial production in the regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan. We also used data on the growth rates of textile products in the Republic of Uzbekistan. The theory of economic cycles cannot explain the interaction of fluctuations in economic conditions. Economic theory explains well the stagnant processes in the economy.
Dynamic processes and processes that require the accumulation of even more financial resources, it is almost impossible to explain the behavior of the stock market from the point of view of economic theory. Attempts to explain complex economic processes using magnifying and accelerating tools it was proposed by Keynes at the beginning of the development of economic theory, but these studies were not continued.
However, statistical and econometric methods are very suitable for solving the above problem. This research includes: Parameters of progressive and cyclical components of industrial production dynamics in the regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan evaluation [20]. The combined grouping of the regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan according to the parameters of the trend-cyclical components of industrial production dynamics combines the following:
- grouping of regions by types of linear trend (up or down);
Grouping of regions according to the parameters of the serial periodic component of industrial production growth rates. Determination of specific economic types of regions, taking into account the results of combined grouping. Progressive development of industrial production in the j-th region of the Republic of Uzbekistan
The recommended model for estimating cyclic dynamics parameters is as follows:
- Evaluation of the parameters of the progressive and cyclic components of industrial production dynamics in the regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan;
Combined grouping of the regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan according to the parameters of the trend-cyclic components of industrial production dynamics:
- grouping of regions by types of linear trend (up or down);
- grouping of regions according to the parameters of the serial periodic component of industrial production growth rates.
- determination of specific economic types of regions, taking into account the results of combined grouping.
y-j = a0 + a1*t +a2Sin (k*t) +a3Cos(k*t),
Here:
y-j - calculated values of the progressive and cyclical components of the time series of the annual growth rate of industrial production in the j-province of the Republic of Uzbekistan;
t is years, t = 2000,...,2018. a0 , a1 - parameters of the model defining the translation component of the time series;
k- a parameter that determines the wavelength (period) of cyclic oscillations;
a2, a3 are the parameters of harmonic vibrations that add to the general model.
To determine the wavelength (period, years), the formula L = 2p/k is used.
The quality of the model is assessed using the multi-correlation coefficient ®, as well as the multi-determination coefficient (D), which allows determining the specific weight of the explained change (the percentage of its true values of the growth rate of industrial production in the region corresponds to the sample indicators).
According to the results of the estimation of the model parameters, it was found that the above-mentioned model reliably described the studied time series: the explained variation by regions was 55-78%.
As a result, the model produced for the Republic of Uzbekistan is as follows:
y1 = 108.19 + 0.096*t +1.912 Sin ((-0.679)*t) - 1.155 Cos((-0.679)*t). This model explains 66% of the variation in the annual growth rates of industrial production (D) in the Republic of Uzbekistan as a whole.
120,0000
115,0000
110,0000
105,0000
100,0000
95,0000
90,0000
fact
trend cyclic
component
Fig. 1. Actual annual rates of industrial production of model dal
Uzbekistan
ta in the Republic of
Author calculations based on SPSS 20 software.
J
The wavelength is 9.25 years, which means that its half-life is about 4.5 years (Figure 1). Based on the calculations of the progressive and cyclical components of industrial production in the regions of Uzbekistan presented in the table, cluster analyzes were carried out, which allowed to identify the same regions in terms of the translational and cyclical components of the dynamics (parameters a0, a1, a2, a3, k). In the dendrogram (see Figure 2), we can see 2 groups of regions, which are grouped according to the similarity of the parameters of the progressive and cyclical components of the dynamics of industrial production in the Republic of Uzbekistan.
The clustering results show that Khorezm, Tashkent, Samarkand, Namangan, Andijan and Jizzakh regions and the city of Tashkent have similar parameters of progressive and cyclical development of industrial production. In addition, regions are divided into groups with upward and downward trends in the dynamics of industrial production.
a g
k n
da
am nm
a on
<D I M
03
Fig. 2. Dendr the same
groups ac
of distribution of territories of the Republic of Uzbekistan into ccording to parameters of progressive and cyclical components of industrial production dynamics
The main reasons for the differences in the cycles of economic dynamics are the time lag between changes in economic indicators, which are dependent and sometimes interrelated. The existence of economic cycles, that is, fluctuations in the economic environment, can cause certain problems.
If these fluctuations occur around a certain progressive trend, then the cost of the crisis is a slight decrease in the growth rate of GDP, not a decrease in output and a decrease in aggregate demand indicators. But cyclical fluctuations in reality can occur both under the influence of a single cyclical wave and as a result of the superposition of several types of cyclical waves.
According to the results of the analysis of the model parameters, regions such as the Republic of Karakalpakstan, Andijan, Jizzakh, Kashkadarya, Namangan, and Syrdarya have a growing trend, while the rest have a decreasing trend. In the regions, the length of the production cycle of industrial products varies from 4.21 (Tashkent city) to 9.37 (Navoi region). The results of clustering by the k-means method are
presented, from which it follows that the parameters of the cyclic component of the constructed models form a cluster. Their average values differ according to the selected clusters. The determined average values of cluster-forming variables allow to determine the estimated values of industrial production rates for selected clusters of regions.
It should be noted that in the regions of cluster 1 and regions of cluster 2 (Figure 3), the forecast data calculated according to the model show that the growth rate of industrial production has decreased compared to the average annual level.
By 3.5 and 0.4% points, respectively. It follows that the situation of the coronavirus crisis has coincided with a decrease in industrial production in both groups of provinces due to regular cyclicality.
Fig. 3. Results of the final combined grouping of regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan by types of economic dynamics of industrial production
Note 1: in this picture, the regions of the first cluster are marked in blue (Andijan, Jizzak, Namangan, Samarkand, Tashkent, Khorezm, Tashkent city); in brown color - second cluster regions (Republic of Karakalpakstan, Bukhara, Kashkadarya, Navoi, Surkhandarya, Syrdarya, Fergana).
Note 2: Areas marked with a bar indicate regions with a high type of economic growth: Bukhara, Navoi, Samarkand, Surkhandarya, Tashkent, Fergana, Khorezm, Tashkent city.
It should be noted that in the regions of cluster 1 and regions of cluster 2 (Figure 3), the forecast of the trend-cyclical model gives a decrease in the growth rate of industrial production compared to the average indicator. Annual level, respectively, to 3.5 and 0.4% points. It follows that the situation of the coronavirus crisis coincided with a decrease in industrial production in both groups of provinces due to regular cycles.
Figure 3 presents the results of the final combined grouping of the regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan by types of economic dynamics of industrial production. According to the results of the parameters evaluation of the dynamic models presented above, four regions with the characteristics of the long-term dynamics of the industrial
trend were determined, which are determined by the main dynamic characteristics. A combination of these components of cyclicity and dynamics. The composition of these regionally known species is given below:
Type 1 (cluster 1, upward type of economic growth): Samarkand, Tashkent, Khorezm, Tashkent;
Type 2 (cluster 1, declining type of economic growth): Andijan, Jizzak, Namangan,
Type 3 (cluster 2, type of growing economic growth): Bukhara, Navoi, Surkhandarya.
Type 4 (2 clusters, decreasing type of economic growth): Republic of Karakalpakstan, Kashkadarya, Syrdarya, Ferghana.
Based on the data on the growth rates of industrial production by types of economic activity, it was determined that the general state of industrial growth in the regions has a significant impact on the state of textile production.
Calculations of the correlation coefficients of the annual growth rates of industrial production by types of economic activity show that the largest relationship between the volume of textile production and industrial growth in the region occurs with a 4-year lag.
It should be noted that in the regions of cluster 1 and regions of cluster 2 (Figure 3), the forecast of the trend-cyclical model for a decrease in the growth rate of industrial production compared to the average indicator. Annual level, respectively, to 3.5 and 0.4% points. It follows that the situation of the coronavirus crisis coincided with a decrease in industrial production in both groups of provinces due to regular cycles. The results of the final combined grouping of the regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan by types of economic dynamics of industrial production are presented.
Conclusion/Recommendations
When studying the financial stability of textile enterprises in the territories of the Republic of Uzbekistan, it is necessary to take into account the cyclical factor, because crisis events aggravate the financial situation of the enterprise. The conducted research made it possible to determine the trends of progressive and cyclical development of industrial production in the regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan, as well as to divide the regions into groups according to the types of progressive and cyclical development. The obtained information is of great prognostic value, as it allows forecasting the dynamics of the cycle at the regional level and, therefore, taking preventive measures to mitigate the consequences of the crisis for the industry in different regions of Uzbekistan. Thus, the proposed model can serve to improve the economic security of Uzbekistan.
Similar information was obtained for the textile industry of the regions of Uzbekistan, which allows to anticipate the decrease in production in the textile industry and thus to take preventive measures. In addition, it was determined that the cyclical dynamics in the textile industry depends on the cycle phase in the industry as a whole: for the Republic of Uzbekistan, the delay between the cycle phase of the textile industry and the industrial cycle is 4 years on average. This situation can also be taken into account when developing anti-crisis measures in the textile industry, and this is important for ensuring the economic security of Uzbekistan.
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25. Kurpayanidi, K.I., Mikhaylov, A.B. (2023). To the problem of in-company training of company employees. Publishing House "Baltija Publishing". Riga, Latvia. V.2. 313-317 pp.
26. Margianti, E.S., Ikramov, M.A., Abdullaev, A.M., Kurpayanidi, K. (2022). Development of the business sector of the economy in the context of institutional transformation Jakarta, Gunadarma Publisher, Indonesia, 2022. ISBN: 978-602-0764-47-4, 205 p. Doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6658834
27. Бахромов, А.А. Вызовы и перспективы управления развитием технологии искусственного интеллекта в Узбекистане // Colloquium-journal. 2022. №6 (129). URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n7vyzovy-i-perspektivy-upravleniya-razvitiem-tehnologii-iskusstvennogo-intellekta-v-uzbekistane (дата обращения: 24.02.2023).
28. Курпаяниди, К. И. Вопросы управления инновациями и инновационной деятельностью в условиях трансформации экономики / К. И. Курпаяниди. - Fergana: AL-FERGANUS, 2022. -280 p. - ISBN 978-9943-8579-2-6. - DOI 10.5281/zenodo.7220693. - EDN AZHAVF.
29. Курпаяниди, К. И. Факторы и направления развития институтов в сфере малого предпринимательства / К. И. Курпаяниди // Проблемы современной экономики. - 2022. - № 3(83). - С. 142-147. - EDN FQJJEH.
30. Kurpayanidi, K. I. Transformation of the education system as a catalyst for innovation in modern China // Nazariy va amaliy tadqiqotlar xalqaro jurnali. 2023. №1. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/transformation-of-the-education-system-as-a-catalyst-for-innovation-in-modern-china (дата обращения: 09.02.2023).
31. Курпаяниди К.И. Сценарии развития экономики Узбекистана в условиях нестабильности // Экономика Центральной Азии. - 2023. - Том 7. - № 1. - doi: 10.18334/asia.7.1.117188.
32. Kurpayanidi, K. I. Innovation and innovative activity in a transforming economy/ K. I. Kurpayanidi // Scientific and analytical journal Science and Practice of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. - 2023. - Vol. 15, No. 1(49).
33. Kurpayanidi, K. Methodological approaches to the analysis of the institutional environment of entrepreneurship / K. Kurpayanidi // Economy: Analysis and Forecasts. - 2022. - No. 3(19). - P. 37-46. - EDN ITCPWP.
34. Курпаяниди, К. И. Инновационная деятельность в ретроспективе экономической науки / К. И. Курпаяниди // Экономика. Бизнес. Финансы. - 2022. - № 7. - С. 3-11. - EDN KDYNDN.
Tahririyat Kengashi raisi ustuni /Column of the Chairman of the Editorial Board/Колонка председателя редакционного совета
1. The light of genius will point the right way 6
Iqtisodiy fanlar /Economic Sciences/Экономические науки
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Integration of innovation and ICT as a source of transformation
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Qisqa xabarlar /Краткие сообщения / Short messages
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