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FACTS OF THE US-CHINESE ECONOMIC COMPETITION
1MAYIH SHABEEB AL-SHAMMARI, 2SALAM ALI KAREEM ALAMMAR
1Faculty of Administration and Economics, University of Kufa, Najaf, Iraq. 2Faculty of Administration and Economics, University of Kufa, Najaf, Iraq.
Abstract
U.S. efforts to reformulate the global system under its interests and vision based on the project of hegemony began in earnest at the start of the tenth decade of the previous century, making the U.S. the most influential force in the course of international relations. Between them and the entanglement that is founded on their mutual dependency, in particular the trade ties and trade partners that they had between each other throughout the time leading up to the current breakout of trade tensions between the two of them. The nature of their relationship might be characterized as fairly complicated when seen through the lenses of collaboration, competition, and challenge.
Keywords: US-Chinese relations, Economic Competition, international relations.
1. INTRODUCTION
The United States of America has sought seriously to reformulate the world order under its interests and vision based on the hegemony project. It is appropriate to systematically introduce China, the fastest growing economy in the world, and it is possible to follow the development of relations between them and the interdependence based on mutual dependence, especially the trade relations and trade partners between them during the previous period until the outbreak of Trade tensions between them recently. The relationship between them is somewhat complex in terms of cooperation, competition, and challenge. After the end of the Cold War and the emergence of China as a rising power, especially in the economic field, the relationship between them shifted from the stage of hostility in the sixties of the last century to the stage of cooperation and economic competition. The importance of the research is derived from the subject of the study by clarifying the facts of the US-Chinese economic competition, especially since the international situation requires such a study because of the competition, leadership, and hegemony that the great powers seek through their economies, which represent the focus of this competition. The international arena has witnessed major changes during the past three decades through competition for positions of political and economic influence, as China bears the characteristics of a competitor to American hegemony and has repercussions on the private level in the United States, as it is a strong competitor in economic terms, and given the ambiguity of this competition, this research came to clarify the facts in a way clearly between the two countries. The scientific hypothesis is an expected answer to the question of the research problem, and on this basis, we assume that economic competition is to reach an advanced role in the arena of international relations through these facts that are characterized by cooperation at times and competition at other times and may turn into a struggle over economic centers of influence. To reach an analysis of the reality of competition and anticipate that competition, and its reflection on the world, several goals for research can be identified as follows:
1 - Review the facts of economic competition.
2 - Analyzing the realities of economic competition between the United States of America and China.
2. MANIFESTATIONS OF US-CHINESE ECONOMIC COMPETITION 2.1. CHINA'S EMERGENCE AS A COMPETITIVE POWERHOUSE
Communist China emerged on the international stage for the first time through the gate of the 1955 Bandung Conference and did not aspire to the leadership of the Afro-Asian countries as much as it was looking for a role in the folds of the Non-Aligned Movement, as it relied on the American-Russian nuclear balance to protect its security, and avoided direct pressure resulting from American alliances with South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, and the pressures resulting from Russian expansion in Indochina and the Far East, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of the
United States as a great power was on China building a new strategy takes as the following factors
(1):
First: The ability of the central government and the political bureau of the party to secure unity of positions and control local rivalries between national institutions.
Second: How to obtain internal and external material resources to secure the implementation of that strategy.
Third: The nature of the challenges faced by China by regional and international powers. China's political leaders have all agreed on a key strategic goal: economic rejuvenation through high and steady economic growth rates.
According to that vision, the calculated security strategy gives priority to the element of economic growth and stability, strives to create an international and regional environment conducive to development and prosperity, and builds modern military capabilities, which China aims through this calculated security strategy to achieve the following objectives 2 .
1 - Ensuring the economic growth of the individual and society according to political ideology, without strictness, but necessarily adapting to the local reality and the international environment.
2 - Achieving the security of the state and its political system as well as the security of society.
3 - China's possession of military capabilities and technologies to achieve its political, economic, and social security.
4 - China's exit from isolation and return to its historical role as a pivotal geopolitical power in Asia, taking into account the fact that China has returned to its position in its regional and international surroundings, and this is subject to its economic achievements, and there is no credible and efficient defense policy without strong economic growth.
China obtained an important position in the international coalition and through the United Nations system, and the international coalition and victory over Japan allowed China to go outside its territory, intervene for the first time in the twentieth century in non-Chinese lands, and occupy part of Indochina, which liberated it from Japanese occupation, and after the collapse of the alliance during the period 1947-1949, China was able to be a master of a large part of its territory, and became part of the bipolar system that characterized the world system until In 1990, between 1950 and 1957, a period that forms part of the Cold War era, China revolved around the Soviet Union before the differences between them began, especially after the developments in the Soviet Union and the disintegration of Stalinism, immediately followed by China's policy of isolation, introversion and self-reliance, and was clearly classified in the ranks of second world countries, and starting in 1972, China began to open up to the West and try to export the Maoist model, and since 1982, It pursued a more independent policy, adding the phrase normal relations to the game of international relations, with the rise of the economic dimension to be added to the game of international relations of China3.
Tamer1Ibrahim Kamel Abdo, The Conflict between the United States, China and Russia (International and Strategic Politics), 1st Edition, Arab Knowledge Bureau, Cairo, 2013, p. 225.
2Kazem Hashem Nehme and Saleh Ibrahim Mabrouk, China in Asian Politics after the Cold War, Academy House, Tripoli, 2007, pp. 123-126.
3Pollard, Martin. Status quo diplomacy: China is a middle kingdom, a center for the world. Translated by Saleh Abu Nasser, Journal of WorldCulture, Kuwait, No. 139, November-December, 2006, pp. 11-12.
China is one of the countries that benefit most from globalization, which turned it into a factory for the world starting in 2000, and its investments have * increased continuously abroad, and today it has a long-term vision through which it aims to organize the world, China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 had positive repercussions in the development of the volume of its exports and investments and the transformation of its companies into a transcontinental global, Chinese President Xi Jinping always strongly calls for the principle of free trade and announces investments Great for improving intercontinental communication (4).
China will dominate the third globalization after the first United Kingdom and the United States of America had dominated the second, after 2009, the share of exports, which had driven the Chinese economy until 2009, of China's GDP has decreased and thus China's weight in global exports has decreased slightly since 2015, and the fear that it will continue in the future, which will have repercussions on Chinese growth levels, there is no doubt that these transformations will change China's trade patterns with commodity exporting countries, countries that have benefited from China's demand for raw materials, oil and gas will suffer a double punishment, according to the opinion of (Chabonier) The first, the slowdown in Chinese growth will reduce the demand for raw materials, thus declining the income of the producing countries, and the second is the decline in prices, especially oil prices, which will negatively affect growth in exporting countries, and reflect trade talks with the United States of America in part Part of this reality, Chinese growth in 2018, the lowest since 1990, is one of the most important factors pushing the Chinese president to sign a trade agreement with US President Donald Trump, although it is difficult to accept American demands5.
There is a set of elements and dimensions that must be available in any country so that we can call it great power and sees (Hans Moore Gayo) a thinker of international relations that the comprehensive power of the state is expressed through nine elements are the geographical factor, natural resources, industrial energy, military readiness, population, national personality, quality of governance, morale and the quality of diplomacy According to those elements, the world can be classified into six categories, greatly such as the United States of America, a rising power such as China, India, Japan, and the Union European, a secondary power such as the United Kingdom and France, a medium power such as Australia, Canada, and most European countries, a visiting power such as the Persian Gulf states, and a small power such as the Vatican (6)-
China has natural resources that lead to economic growth and strategic independence, China is now a major trading country and uses international markets and capital intensively, China's export industries control many of its internal regional economies and provide most of the capital and technology required to modernize its industrial base and infrastructure, however, the success of Chinese modernization will be able to be enhanced by a relatively small dependence on imported resources, and although China's use of foreign oil is increasing, it has the largest Coal reserves in the world, and those reserves are located in inland areas that are difficult to access, but once China's infrastructure improves with economic modernization, these reserves will be cheap, reliable and accessible, and coal will remain China's main energy source in the twenty-first century, but
Thomas L. Friedmann divided the history of globalization into three sections: the first globalization (1492-the second globalization (1800-2000), and the third globalization (2000-present), and explained that ,(1800 the first globalization is the globalization of states, the second globalization includes companies, while the third .globalization includes the globalization of individuals
(4)Jean-Raphael Chaponniere , China will dominate - t - it the third globalization, L'Economie politique, no, 77 (January 2018), p 71.
(5)Jean-Raphael ,op ,cit , p 84
6 Ahed Muslim Al-Mashaqaba and Sayel Falah Miqdad, The New International Order in Light of the Emergence of Rising Powers: China as a Model (1999-2016), Humanities and Social Sciences Studies, Jordan, Vol. 45, No. 2, 2018, p. 270.
with the increase in capital and the advancement of technology, China will be able to exploit untapped oil reserves ().7
Chinese leaders do not see continued economic growth as the focus of the country's strategic ambitions to regain its position as a great power, but rather as the main pillar of an undeclared social contract, they use the principles of reform and openingup to strengthen the Chinese economy, and they have focused on protecting the experience of economic reform and preserving its special character, and creating the appropriate conditions for its continuation and necessary for its success, as it is important in building China's future role in the international system 8 . China's national goals have shifted from the need to ensure its survival during the days of the country's revolution to the current situation to secure stable economic development, this transformation represents a complete transformation for China, changing from a closed country to a developing country that irrevocably integrates with the rest of the world, while this topic is a popular discourse in scientific and political circles, the international community is still aware of the meaning and impact of China's evolving role on the world stage, it is not an easy issue I t goes beyond economics (9).
2.2. THE DIMENSIONS OF THE CHINESE ASCENSION FIRST: THE ECONOMIC DIMENSION:
China has achieved in recent years an increasing breakthrough in all fields and fields, which enabled it to rise to the level of great powers, foremost of which is the economy, China has 1950 to 1990 to establish and construct the infrastructure of the economy, and the Chinese dragon's economic launch came at the beginning of the ninth decade of the last century, it has achieved high rates of GDP growth, and this enabled it to rank first in the world in terms of high GDP growth rate until it became This rate (9.7%) during the period 1991-2000 and in 2010 this rate rose to (10.3%), and during this era, China became the second economic power in the world instead of Japan, which remained as a second economic power after the United States of America for four
decades ().10
The Chinese economic model is a unique model known as the socialist market economy, which China has begun to follow since the application of the policy of economic reform, and openness by trying to maximize the positives of traditional socialist thought and reduce its negatives, and this system is based on combining socialism and the market economy, through the interaction between the hidden market hand and the government's apparent hand in macroeconomic policies, and China was able through this unique model to achieve social harmony, and the distribution of benefits between systems. The volume of China's annual gross product reflects the strength of Chinese
production and the degree of its diversity, and most excitingly, this output is growing at a high rate
().11
Despite the slowdown in Chinese economic growth rates, but in an upward trend, and this growth is mainly due to the growth of the industrial production sector, as well as the huge volume of Chinese exports, which reflects the degree of spread and diversity of Chinese exports and their superior ability to penetrate global markets, and it is worth noting that despite the large volume of Chinese imports, China maintains a large surplus in the balance of its trade balance, as for the sovereign
7Michael E. Brown et al., The Rise of China, translated by Mustafa Qassem, General Authority of the National Library and Archives, 1st Edition, Cairo, 2010, pp. 326-327.
Nawar8Jalil Hashem, America and the Rising Powers (US Policy towards the BRICS Countries in the World .System), 1st Edition, Publications Company for Distribution and Publishing, Beirut, 2020, pp. 120-121
(9)Zbang Wenmu, Sea Power & china s Strategic Choices ( the world Security institute Press, U.S.A, 2006) p. 17.
Mahmoud10 Khalifa Gouda Mohammed, Dimensions of China's rise in the international system and its repercussions 1991 -2010, https://democraticac.de/?p=570
Jihad11 Omar Muhammad Al-Khatib, US-China Relations (Prospects for Conflict and Cooperation), Arab Democratic Center, Berlin, 2016, p. 31.
and credit worthiness of the Chinese economy, the volume of China's foreign exchange reserves is enormous. This means that China does not need the funds necessary to achieve the current growth rates continuously for years to come as much as it needs technology, modern management, and skilled labor, as for the capital market in China, we find that the two stock exchanges of China represent the second largest financial market in Asia after Japan, and many experts believe that the China Stock Exchange is growing at rates approaching the growth rates of the Chinese economy as a whole, which makes it on its way to a state of recovery in the Chinese economy, and from The public sector controls only 30% of the Chinese economy, while the private sector currently controls 70%. 12
SECOND: THE MILITARY DIMENSION:
China was able to exploit its economic growth to support and modernize its military capacity to enable it to prepare a great military power that matches its ambitions as a rising global power by developing its military nuclear capacity, armies, and human potential, as China built a Chinese military institution at the beginning of the last decade of the last century, and also began to establish and organize the army, and then equip it with the highest military technologies on land, sea, and air, in addition to that, the Chinese army is the largest in the world in terms of The Chinese army also consists of three basic pillars, which is the People's Liberation Army and is a regular army and the number of forces of this army is estimated at (2.3) million soldiers, in addition to that reserve forces are supporting this army and their number is about (800,000) soldiers and this puts us the magnitude of the Chinese army compared to the armies of the region
().13
Beijing authorities believe that the United States under President Donald Trump is more determined than ever to contain the rise of Chinese power by all means, that Washington views China's growing rise as a threat to its national security and a challenge to Western democracies, and that Washington seeks to weaken the standing of the ruling Communist Party by weakening Chinese confidence in it. In the aftermath of Tiananmen Square Thirty years ago, the West imposed a package of sanctions on China, including a ban on the transfer of Technology and arms sales, but China today has become an economic giant and has developed enormous military capabilities, both naval and air, capable of challenging U.S. military dominance in Asia. China is developing a combat force capable of winning modern warfare in clear defiance of more than seventy years of U.S. military dominance in Asia. 14
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin noted that over the two decades, the world has witnessed the rapid modernization of the Chinese military and that it is on its way to becoming a rival to the United States in Asia and eventually around the world, explaining that China's leaders are keen to expand their ability to project power and establish a global network of military bases, adding At the same time, the Chinese People's Army is rapidly improving many of its capabilities, including offensive and air measures, missile defense, and counter-measures. He also warned against China funding key technology sectors that have civilian and military applications, and then also advancing them in the nuclear field, warning that China will have at least a thousand nuclear warheads by 2030 and that they are building a "nuclear triad"* to launch it15.
Mansour12 Faleh Ismail, Opportunities and Challenges for Chinese Growth as a Great Power (19902008), Master's Thesis, Mutah University, Faculty of Graduate Studies, 2009, p. 72.
13Jihad Omar Muhammad al-Khatib, op. cit., pp. 39-40.
14Hassan Zenind, America and China on a military frontline with unknown consequences53513813/https://www.dw.com/a r
*Nuclear Trinity: The term nuclear triad refers to the methods of launching nuclear weapons from the strategic nuclear treasury, which consists of three components, a strategic bomber, an intercontinental ballistic missile, and a submarine-launched ballistic missile.
15Moaz al-Omari, China's military is on its way to becoming a major world power https://aawsat.com/home/article/3343601
China is working to develop and modernize its air, land and sea capabilities, with regard to air capabilities, China has developed fourth-generation fighter aircraft (10J) close to the capabilities of the (F-18) aircraft owned by Canada and China seeks to develop a fifth-generation fighter aircraft similar to the American (22-F) or (35-F) fighter and there is a quest to obtain a combat drone with the ability to stealth and equipped with accurate weapons systems, as for land capabilities, China is developing Armored vehicles similar to the American Stryker model About 15% of the size of the Chinese army is trained as an elite force capable of transferring the battle to the enemy, and there are plans to develop military transport aircraft for ground equipment such as the American (17-C) aircraft, and China also seeks to develop its naval military capabilities by modernizing the naval fleet to allow for a regional qualitative superiority that includes the inclusion of an aircraft carrier in the existing naval fleet to protect naval lines and the manufacture of eight new amphibious ships that cannot Monitoring and manufacturing more nuclear submarines equipped with nuclear and ballistic warheads, attaching them to existing submarines of this type, building more bases and naval facilities in various strategic maritime places, and China has a group of military companies and institutions that it harnesses to serve its military ambitions in addition to exporting some types of weapons ().16
THIRD: THE HUMAN DIMENSION:
Human wealth is the most precious thing possessed by nations and peoples, the human being is the maker of civilization and development, the human element is the engine of the wheel of production, there can be no construction without labor and no agriculture without farms, and the human power was the biggest deciding factor in the conflict between civilizations and different peoples, and developed countries always strive and do their best to increase the development of
their human wealth^*17 China is the first power in the world in terms of human wealth, with a population of about
(1,415,770,000) people in April 2022, and the proportion of China's population of the world's population is (17.8%), and China, according to the management of its human wealth, has been able to achieve huge economic progress and build a large military force due to the population (18)-The human element must be trained and skillfully educated can deal with the requirements of this era, as we are in an era led by human minds and whoever owns them becomes the strongest. China has an age structure for the population in which the labor force represents the largest percentage, as the percentage of the age group for those over fifteen and under sixty years old is 68% of the total population, while the percentage of those under fifteen is 26% and those over sixty years old only 6%, and this shows us the strength of the labor force in China and the impact that this had on China's economic progress, China ranks fourth in the world in terms of population density and represents The area of China is 7% of the world's area, and the majority of the population works in agriculture, with about 60% of the population working in agriculture, while industry employs about 40%, and the majority of the population lives in the eastern and coastal provinces ()19
FOURTH: THE SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DIMENSION:
Development in China is based on three determinants (agricultural development, industrial progress, scientific and technological development), and China pays great attention to scientific and technological research so that it can achieve its aspirations and ambitions in all fields In 1995, the Chinese central government developed a strategy for the advancement of the state in science and education, and this strategy is based on specific points represented in20:
16Jihad Omar Muhammad al-Khatib, op. cit., p. 41.
17Mahmoud Khalfa Gouda Mohammed, Dimensions of Chinese Rise in the International System and
its Repercussions 1991-2010, Arab Democratic Center, Berlin, 2014, p. 11.
List18 of countries and consequences by population https://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Mahmoud19 Khalfa Judah Muhammad, previous source, p. 12.
20Nabil Al Mahmoud, China's technological superiority
https://alwatannews.net/0pinion/article/983407
1- Upholding education as the key to development.
2- Enhancing the scientific and technological capacity of the State on the ground.
3- Building an economy based on scientific and technological progress.
4- Improving and raising the quality and level of production.
5- Upgrading the cultural and scientific level of the Chinese people.
6- Accelerating the steps of prosperity and prosperity of the Chinese state.
The competition during the Fourth Industrial Revolution, during which China made great technological leaps to become a fierce competitor, and even superior to the United States of America and European countries in several areas, including vital foundational technologies and the Great Technological Competition Report, was issued bythe Belfer Center at Harvard University to increase the concerns of those technologically advanced countries from China's creep towards the forefront, but rather from its technological leadership even in other areas that it has not yet reached, as China adopts a policy of developing the capabilities of the Chinese According to the report, China's modern five-year plan included key technology targets, performance indicators, and deadlines for achieving results, and even held provincial and local governments responsible for achieving them21-
To build a strong country in science and technology, China in the past years has formed a complete system in terms of thought, strategy, and scientific approach, the secretary of the CPC team of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and delegate to the Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Wang Zhijig, said, "Innovation should be promoted through deepening reform, and all our scientific-technological work revolves around scientific innovation and system innovation and mechanism." With the implementation of a series of important policies on science and technology innovation, including expenditure utilization policies, evaluation of achievements, discussion, and approval of projects, etc., raising the enthusiasm and motivation of scientists and researchers in innovation, and forming a good and conducive environment for science and technology innovation, the dual mover of scientific and technological innovation and system innovation is deeply affecting China. The continuous improvement of the environment and scientific and technological innovation systems, and the continuous investment of the government and social circles in scientific and technological innovation, constitute a common force and serve as wings for the flight and superiority of China's scientific and technological innovations 22 .
3. CONTROVERSIAL POSITIONS OF COMPETITION BETWEEN THE US AND CHINA 3.1. THE ATTITUDE OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
The historical roots of the American strategy must be noted and realized, as the American strategy went through the stage of isolation and self-building throughout the nineteenth century, represented by (1776-1945) because it believes the best strategies that focus on secure, developing, building its economy and national security, and the principle of isolation was associated with the (Monroe Doctrine), which was the cornerstone of the American strategy throughout the nineteenth century as an extension to the Cold War stage represented by (19451990), as the United States of America manufactured nuclear weapons and used them in the war against Japan on (August 16, 1945), after which the United States realized that it is not in its interest to use its destructive capacity because it will be covered by destruction, so it adopted the application of a deterrence strategy during the stage of competition and conflict between the two camps, as the United States represents the capitalist camp and the Soviet Union represents the socialist camp, and the conflict and competition between the two camps continued for a long time, but due to the thoughtful employment of the American strategy and the elements of power it
21Nabil Al Mahmoud, ibid.
22Zhang Ying, China's scientific and technological innovation enters a new era, http://www.chinatoday.com.cn/ctarabic/se/2017-12/01/content 750530.htm
possesses, it led to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the unilateralism and global hegemony without a competitor. (23) .
The fears of the major economic powers represented by the United States of America and the European Union of the economic rise of China have become unhidden because these powers believe that this rise will be an opponent of their role in the global economy and the international trading system, however, these economic powers still do not earn these fears a hostile character, as they show their non-objection to the Chinese rise, but only reserve the policies adopted by China to achieve this rise, especially in the field of trade. In the economic field, despite the praise of the United States of America for economic reforms in China on some occasions, the majority of public discourse calls for more reforms and openness to the global economy and the cessation of trade policies that contradict the principles of fair competition 24.
Since the United States became the dominant superpower in the world during the post-Cold War period, which sought to maintain a global control system, let it not be easy to maintain this project, China has become a player with wide influence and imposes a great challenge to the United States of America must realize the power of the other and not ignore it, because the future of the international system will be determined in light of China's continued role as a rising, effective and influential power in the international system, and because threats The new requires compliance in the interest of cooperation between the actors (25).
The Chinese move and the continuous pursuit of oil and raw materials, as well as the opening of new markets for Chinese exports, have raised a factor of concern for the United States of America and foreign countries, especially since China has become in the eyes of many countries the appropriate force to replace Western countries, especially the United States of America, and they found in it what meets their aspirations through Chinese proposals that have been moving away from political and ideological factors such as non-interference in the internal affairs of countries. The United States believes that China's penetration into the world to obtain energy sources, especially oil, comes in the context of a Chinese tendency to monopolize guaranteed access to oil and other resources, regardless of the nature of the political regimes with which it deals, and to establish a trade relationship based on the exploitation of the world's resources without promising potential development. to its countries, and work to exclude the United States and Western countries from that process (26).
The emergence of China as a modern global power and the existence of alliances that may arise between major powers such as China and Russia, raises the concerns of the United States, as the rapprochement between the two countries is a warning to America not to rely too much on the entrenched hostility between the two countries, according to (Henry Kissinger), and Washington realizes that it is what is meant by what the Russian-Chinese joint statement said about the will to dominate and repeated pressures on countries and the need to build a multipolar world that is a new geopolitics, the emergence of China will Contribute to determining the nature of the international political system and what newcomers impose on the international arena (27). The report of the Council on Foreign Relations is more than just humanitarian motives, China is the main threat, it notes that China has changed the strategic context in the world, as China is now achieving worldwide control over natural resource assets, offering offers to build major
23 Ali Muhammad Amneef Al-Rafi' i, Soft Power and its Impact on the Future of American Hegemony, 1st Edition, Dar Al-Sanhouri, Beirut, 2016, p. 95.
Samira24 Abdel Ghani Abdel Fattah Mohamed, The Chinese Rise and its Repercussions on Chinese-Arab Relations from 2004, Algerian Encyclopedia of Political and Strategic Studies, 2020, p. 28.
25Ahed Muslim Al-Mashaqaba and Sayel Falah Miqdad, The New International Order in Light of the Emergence of the Rising Powers China Model (2016-1991), Humanities and Social Sciences Studies, Vol. 45, No. 2, 2018, p. 279.
26 Salim Kata Ali, US-Chinese Competition (The Direction of the African Continent after the Cold Ruin of Sudan as a Model), Dar Amjad for Publishing and Distribution, Jordan, 2014, p. 319.
27Ahed Muslim al-Mashaqaba and Sayel Falah Miqdad, op. cit., p. 279.
infrastructure projects that are better than those made by Western contractors, and offering easy loans and other incentives to support its competitive advantages. Loans with low interest. For the Council on Foreign Relations, this represents a threat to Western imperialist domination of the world, and the report argues that with China and Europe no part of the world being their fishing area, laws are changing as China seeks not only to secure access to natural resources, but also to control the production and distribution of resources, and perhaps to take priority when these resources become increasingly scarce 28 .
The United States of America was not facing a clear and specific enemy that threatened its security and existence, as its security concern was focused on facing the risks and challenges that threaten its vital interests, as the awareness of the United States of its national security and the nature of its vital interests, which are often described as ambiguous, prompted it to subject its interests to the principle of adaptation to human rights, the need to spread the democratic model and the requirements of international legitimacy, the fight against terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, and the requirements for maintaining regional security. All of them are politically motivated to prompt the United States of America to carry out military operations, either alone or in alliance with others29.
The United States of America remains the only power in the world now and there is no competitor or disputer and that the United States has the right to strike any country in the world that is unable to play its role in the pursuit of terrorism, and from the events of the eleventh of September 2001 and the whole world did not rest in mind or straighten up anyway, through the emergence of the phenomenon of terrorism as an international variable with intellectual and political goals, and this is what justifies it for confrontation and in several regions of the world, as terrorism is within Its general lines with security dimensions to go in two directions: First: It is a justification for achieving goals that lie mainly in the strategies of some international powers, especially the United States of America, which makes them control the outlets and source of international political decisions after allying with the energies and capabilities of the member states of the Security Council to pass any project that conforms to the directives of the American political decision-maker.
Second: It is a dynamic security means to impose methods of force according to American policy, including pre-emptive strikes against those it considers its enemies30
To strengthenits position in the world, the United States of America has adopted several basic axes
to deal with this region, namely 31.
First: Strengthening bilateral security alliances.
Second: Deepening relations with emerging powers.
Third: Dealing with multilateral regional institutions.
Fourth: Increasing trade and investments.
Fifth: Large-scale military presence.
Sixth: Supporting democracy and human rights.
These themes represented a broad framework for what was later called rebalancing in Asia, and this new approach to regional partnership represents the cornerstone of reshaping U.S. policy in the region.
With all of the above, we see there is a future scene to the decline or decline of American hegemony, due to internal and external challenges and the difficulty of leading the world alone, and this makes it fall, so all empires must reach the peaks and then fall because of the high
John28 Bellamy Foster, The Petroleum Empire, translated by: Mazen Al-Husseini, on
http://www.dulpit.alwatanvoice.com/content.htm.p.14
29 Salim Kata Ali, op. cit., p. 325.
30Samiha Zerroukhi, Sino-American Relations between Cooperation and Conflict (since the events of September 2001), Master's Thesis, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Mohamed Boudiaf University in Messila, 2017, pp. 71-72.
Baqir31 Jawad Kazim, The Security Environment in Northeast Asia between American and Chinese Influence, Journal of Political Science, Issue 61, 2021, p. 51.
burdens of managing the empire and its costs and having to retreat, there is no power but reached its peak and then collapsed and that may happen to the United States of America, although the United States is a different situation from its predecessor of empires under its political system ().32 Among the internal and external factors that lead to the decline of the American role in the world, we mention the following
1 - Internal factors:
One of the most important factors that lead to the weakness of the power of the controlling state is the structural factors that occur in the state's economy, as there are many factors in addition to internal factors that lead to damage to economic and military capabilities, as well as the decline in economic efficiency paves the way for the decline in economies of scale, weak economic growth and the backwardness of the country's ability to compete militarily and economically, as weak economic growth leads to the absence of new technological booms in innovation or technological gain from These factors can be addressed as follows33:
A - The decline in growth rates as a result of the emergence of the law of diminishing yields in a comprehensive manner.
(b) The high costs of military spending and more efficient military technologies.
C - The rise in the general tendency for private and public consumption with growth that exceeds
the speed of growth of national income.
(d) Negative change in the economic structure.
E - Corrupted prosperity.
2 - External factors:
External factors are one of the factors that undermine the position of the dominant power in the end externally, as these factors are found in the physical and political environment, and the changes that occur in these military, technological, and economic factors are quite similar, and the purpose is to consider the change in power relations from the perspective of the decline of the dominant power and this is on two interrelated developments:
(a) The high costs of political control.
(b) Loss of economic and technological leadership.
3.2. THE ATTITUDE OF CHINA
China played an important role during the Cold War, which manages to spread the additional regional impulses for export controls, sanctions, and laws 34 . China is the most traditional power that counts with other power centers by having economic or "soft " power35, and is also a nuclear power and occupies one of the five permanent seats on the United Nations Security Council.
The policy adopted in China, whose leaders stress that it is the strategic choice for their country, but the future of this policy will be determined by the balance of power within the ruling political, military, and economic class, and the way the world will deal with the rise of China. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the unipolar system emerged in the early nineties, which the United States represents as a great power that transcends other powers and differs from them by many steps, and it was obvious that countries that disagree with Washington try to Orientations and visions to avoid showing this difference in the form of a military confrontation, especially since the great powers usually act in search of enemies if they lose their main enemy in order to remain
32Muhammad Hassanein Heikal, The American Empire and the Raid on Iraq, Cairo, Dar Al-Shorouk, 3rd Edition, 2004, p. 11.
33 Robert Guillen, War and Change in World Politics, translated by Omar Said Al-Ayoubi, Beirut, Dar Al-Kitab Al-Arabi, 1st Edition, 2009, pp. 196-197.
(34)Peter Rudolf, The Sino-American World Conflict, in: Barbara Lippert and Volker Perthes (eds.), Strategic Rivalry between United States and China: Causes, Trajectories, and Implications for Europe, SWP Research Paper 4, (Berlin, German Institute for International and Security Affairs), April 2020,P.6 .
(35)Feng Zhang, Is Southeast Asia Really Balancing against China?, The /ashington Quarterly ,Vol. 41, Summer 2018, No. 3,P,191.
mobilized for their economic, military and political capabilities in that period, and many theories appeared inside the United States, some of which propose preparing to face the green danger (Islam), and some proposing readiness to face the yellow danger (China), and it was natural at the time that China did not provoke the anger of the United States and work to calm its fears To reassure it, so that it does not fall into the trap of American theorizing and become the first danger and replace the Soviet Union, China is unable to bear the burden of such a confrontation based on a characterization that puts it in this position 36 .
China has strongly faced a set of political, internal, and external variables, which was positively reflected in determining China's goal, which is to move towards economic opening-up, development planning, and the path of comprehensive democracy, and China is one of the rising powers that seek to maximize its capabilities and sources of power at home in a way that protects it from acquiescence in front of the dominant major powers, and it may occur at the external level when the emerging country tries to compensate for the lack of its power resources in alliance with other countries to confront the dominant powers in the international system. China has the power and human and technological capabilities that make Chinese leaders invest in achieving a strong foreign policy, as it is difficult to separate the impact of internal factors on Chinese foreign policy, in line with the will of leaders to increase China's active role in international relations 37 .
China affirms in its orientations that the basis for the interactions of the region's environment is the economic variable more than the political and security variables, and the abandonment of the prevailing regional security structure in the region and based on bilateral security-military alliances and arrangements, as it made China think about security arrangements that take the defensive form towards the United States security leadership in the region, and this makes China opposed to military alliances in whatever form, which was reflected in the regional response to many Chinese proposals related to some issues of the region, which is what Interact with a firm regional conviction that the absence of a prominent American role is equivalent to Chinese influence, many countries in the region may not find it inevitable to recognize the reality of China's influence on the East Asian region, which explains their agreement with it not to conduct any joint military exercises or exercises with any country outside the region in the South China Sea without prior notice, and it also explains to us the support of the countries of the region to China to enhance security in the region ().38
The rates of economic and technological progress in China have become very fast, and China is achieving an annual growth rate that is still the highest in the world in decades, and China has become today the world's factory, through cheap labor with huge numbers, and the growth of foreign direct investment, in a combination of capital and technological knowledge, which has provided the opportunity for the Chinese economy to flourish more than any other country, and on the other hand, it is natural that there are many obstacles and problems that actively seizing opportunities in investment, seeking contracts for infrastructure is 39 meet these Beijing projects and opening new markets for Chinese products in the Middle East. Indeed, the New Silk Road Initiative, often referred to as the One Belt and One Road Strategy, officially launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping, appears to include all forms of economic activities and participation in the area entrusted to the Chinese foreign policy has rushed 40 .Government of the People's Republic of China and its owned companies because China has the elements of growth that made it an advanced ,to abandon its pro-Western policy economic power seeking to build relations and common interests with various countries of the world, especially developing countries, as China seeks to present itself as an influencer on the international scene in order to
36 Ali Hussein Bakir, The Concept of Peaceful Rise in China's Foreign Policy,
https://studies.aljazeera.net/ar/reports/2011
37Ahed Muslim al-Mashaqaba and Sayel Falah Miqdad, op. cit., p. 274.
Baqir38 Jawad Kazim, The Security Environment in Northeast Asia between American and Chinese Influence, Journal of Political Science, No. 61, 2021, p. 59.
39Farouk Abbas Ahmed Development Experience in China - Reality and Challenges, Scientific Journal of Economics and Trade, file: ///C: /Users/lenovo/Downloads/Documents/JSEC_Volume
40Andrew Scobel, Alireza Nader, China in the Middle East (The Careful Dragon), Santa Monica
Foundation, California, 2016, pp. 7-8.
change the idea of a unipolar international order and strive towards a multipolar international system, and that the changes that have occurred in the structure of the international system The loss of the property of balance between two major poles, the United States and the former Soviet Union, made the rising powers represented by and China seeks in its relations ,China take a new position and pressure to change the idea of a unipolar system with the world to reforms based on the economy and the gradual abandonment of ideological rigidity, for example, Chinese-African relations have taken an economic character and to achieve this vision, the People's Republic of China uses aid funds as a channel for investments in sectors such as Manufacturing, infrastructure China has also entered other countries' markets cooperatively and peacefully, relying on its . (41) and mining China's rise .42competitiveness rather than on power, occupation, or domination, as Western empires have done in the global balance of power in favor of Asia, and the relative decline in 43 fundamental shift a is linked to U.S. power as a result of wrong policies and numerous crises, and according to India's Prime Minister China's .Manmohan Singh, the most important development of the twenty-first century will be the Asian ascent role in the transformation is evident in the mix of jobs that are exported today, as American jobs that went to China in 2001 were concentrated in various industries, such as electronics and toys, which are attractiveFor . China always emphasizes that its ascent is the ladder of development, and .(44) countries with low wages always this is what has already happened, and it is also aware that the continuation of its rise depends on avoiding the loss of its relationship with America, andstayingaway from any confrontation to ensure the continuation of its rise, by activating cooperation with the United States of America, because cooperation represents a safety valve for it to prevent or delay the confrontation with the United States of America, and the two countries are aware of each other's goals and intentions, but they are forced to reach a certain international situation. It is in the interest of both parties, as some common issues require joint dealing, and that these issues from which they achieve common goals and do not involve a losing party and a victorious party, and that it is necessary for future cooperation in international issues such as economic development, intellectual rights, electronic espionage, .(45) terrorism issues, security and stability issues, and nuclear proliferation
3.3. THE BALANCE OF POWER AND ALLIANCES BETWEEN THE US AND CHINA
The United States of America has created a group of allies in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, the Arab Gulf states, Egypt, Israel, the Maghreb countries, and Turkey), which are almost expanding its influence and exercising its control inside and outside the Middle East thanks to these allies46-Huntington conceptualizes the question that the United States must go to war to prevent China from becoming the dominant regional power. He says that the growing Chinese economic power or civilization The Chinese is clear, and this trend represents from his point of view the most important security issues during the first period of the twenty-first century, so the United States of America to direct its alliance with Japan in this direction and develop its military relations with the rest of the Asian countries and support its military presence in the region or work to coexist with this rising power, and in both options are very dangerous, as proposed (Hattington), and to get out
Hadi41 Muhammad Hussein Barham, US-Chinese Competition in the African Continent after the Cold War 1991-2010, 1st Edition, Dar Zahran for Publishing and Distribution, Jordan, 2016, pp. 152-153. The42 Chinese economy is an amazing achievement and a model at the crossroads, http://www.chinatoday.com.cn/ctarabic/se/2018-01 /01/content 751645.htm
43 Sally Nabil Al-Shaarawy, Sino-American Relations and the Impact of Transformation in the International System, Al-Arabi for Publishing and Distribution, Cairo, 2017, p. 216.
44 Tedsi-Fashman, China is a giant company, translated by Hala Nabulsi, Obeikan Library, Riyadh, 2009, p. 355.
45Widad Al-Massawi, US-China Pathways of Cooperation and Convergence, 2021, https://adhwaa. net
Tyre46 Bradley, translated by Imad Fawzi, American Peace and the Middle East, 1st Edition, Dar Al-Arabiya for Science, Beirut, 2004, p. 22.
Huntington is an American scientist and politician, a 58-year professor at Harvard University, and a conservative thinker. He has worked in several subfields of political science and business, described by Harvard University as the mentor of a generation of scientists in widely disparate fields, and one of the most influential political scientists of the second half of the twentieth century.
of this strategic impasse the United States of America to Let Japan play the role of regional counterweight to China and indirectly support it, but its strategy needs Japan's consent to play this role, which is unlikely 47.
China wants to settle conflicts with the United States through the language of dialogue and bilateral understandings and tries to avoid entering into strategic polarization, however, the state of competition remains because China adopts a quiet policy towards the rise and its greater focus on economic initiatives, China is the main beneficiary of the American protection umbrella in the region, as China and the United States agree on the priority of ensuring regional stability and containing conflicts between the countries of the region, and this also provides China's projects with a favorable environment. And invest in stable markets, as well as ensure the supply of oil to its giant factories ()48
Economists and politicians of the United Nations talk about global growth and depression in the world order, and of course, there is a world order, but it is not what most societies imagine, efforts to prevent the identification or termination of wars, whether by armies, peace movements, or by anyone else, require an understanding of the system within which war occurs, and for this, the strategic thinking of the twenty-first century must begin with the map of the world order of tomorrow (49)- Winning in global competition is impossible without being involved. 50The current U.S. policy toward China can be summarized in three schools51:
The first school: is the school of integration, which means working to pursue a moderate policy
towards China, pushing it to gradually integrate into the international community.
The second school: is the school of containment, which holds that the Chinese political system is
not qualified to learn the rules of the contemporary international order and that it seeks to
undermine the stability of East Asia and become a hegemonic regional power.
The third school: is the compromise school, which is based on taking into account some of what
was stated in both previous schools.
Some of the problems and opportunities that create the future of U.S.-China relations depend on developments within each, and a clash becomes more likely if both suffer real economic setbacks that push leaders to demand sacrifice from abroad. In China, policymakers face the very complex task of implementing the reforms required to keep the country's economy in motion while recognizing the threats these changes cause to the country's domestic balance, and in Washington if partisan rivals continue to hit U.S. policies. Preventing lawmakers from restoring the country's financial standing, American frustration with the US-China mutual imbalance could reach a tipping point52. The United States and China lead stable and new markets respectively, and they are the world's two largest economies in international exchange, China is the world's largest creditor country, the United States has become the world's largest debtor country, and America and China are the world's biggest polluters, as there is no way to balance the economy The world again, breathing in global exchange talks, or climate change and problem management without coordinated leadership and burden sharing between America 53 and China. Through what has been presented, a specific vision of the future of U.S.-China relations can be formulated, based on
47 Led Salim Abdul Hai, The Future Status of China (in the International System 1978-2010), 2nd Edition, United Arab Emirates, 2014, pp. 196-197.
48 Muhammad Saqr Al-Sulami, US-China Competition and its Reflection on the Middle East, King Fahd Publishing Library, Riyadh, 2021, p. 11.
Alvin49 and Heidi Toffler, War and Against War, translated by Muhammad Abdel Halim Abu Ghazaleh, 1st .Edition, Cairo, Dar Al-Maaref, 2000, p. 303
(50)Vision - 2050 anew political and economic map of the world, international research by the post -( crises world institute, Moscow, 2013, p67. www.postcrisisworld.org
51 Nawar Jalil Hashim, op. cit., p. 266.
Ian52 Bremer, A World Without Leadership, Every Nation for Itself, Winners and Losers in the World of the Zero Group, translated by Fatima Al-Dhahabi, 1st Edition, Dar Al-Farabi Publishing, Beirut, 2013, pp. 255-256.
53 Ibid., p. 262.
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realistic elements and data analyzed to create three levels of relationship. The first level: is the level of the Cold War that will occur if the parties turn to more direct forms of conflict. The second level: is the level of open conflict, and perhaps it is Taiwan's declaration of independence that creates the public conflict. This scenario also depends on the relative weakness of other countries of the world, as the beginning of the US-China conflict could consume everyone to force other countries to support one side or the other. The third and final level is the scenario of cooperation between the two parties, to enter into different partnerships between them, called Brzezinski G2, which is the comprehensive and valuable partnership of two countries with exceptional potential to make our collective future, as we see that the third level is the one that dominates the scene shortly, through these partnerships, which for the United States fall within the scope of positive containment also ().54
Based on what has been shown of future possibilities for the establishment of strategic balance in Asia, the first is that the balance in Asia is based on a multilateral strategic balance (American -Japanese - Chinese - Indian - Russian), surrounded by parties from South Korea, Australia and Southeast Asia with the presence of multilateral committees that work to bring views closer to solve security, political and economic issues, and this scene cannot take any decisive action from any other international actor in Asia unless it is taken into account The interests of other actors in Asia, the international equation from the point of view of the United States of America is to win and tame the rising powers (China, Japan, India), and cooperate with them to eventually take place in the basket of American interests, and that one of these powers is not an adversary of the United States of America, especially China, and these powers realize at the same time that many of the cards of the game are currently in the hands of the United States of America, the United States of America must be more effective in representing the world in Twenty-first century and greater representation and responsibilities of emerging and emerging powers on the regional and international stage55.
The second complementary scene is the pivotal balance (gradual collision) between two axes (the United States of America - Japan - India) and the axis of China, which has its open alternatives to an alliance with the Russian Federation within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and make it a security system in the face of the opposite axis or an alliance between (China, the Russian Federation, North Korea) within the framework of North Korea's cooperation or its resort to an alliance with Australia in light of what was confirmed by former Australian Prime Minister (John Howard) and former Foreign Minister (Alexander Downer) in 2003, that China has strengthened its relations with Australia as long as it sees it as an important economic, political and strategic partner, and this is evidence of China's recognition of the important role that Australia can aspire to in the region, in return for Australia's support for China's regional influence, which enhances a deep shift in the strategic structure of Asia and has implications for Australia's security later, and this scene is in light of the possibility of China's rise to the rank of the first economic power and its access to a military force such as the one currently possessed by the United States of America and its continued rise and disagreements. The United States of America since election of its former president (George Bush) in 2001 was the beginning of entering a phase of change in American policy towards a cautious collision with China and the incident of clash between the American spy plane and Chinese warplanes over China's special economic zone in the Pacific in 2001 was an indication of the existence of this scene, and another evidence is the competition and struggle for maritime control between the United States The United States of America is supported by India and Japan on the one hand and China is supported by Pakistan and Myanmar on the other,
54Nawar Jalil Hashim, op. cit., p. 269.
55Younis Muayad Younis, The Roles of the Major Asian Powers in the Strategic Balance in Asia after the Cold War and its Future Prospects, Al-Rimal for Publishing and Distribution, Jordan, 2015, pp. 308-309.
so we understand the Indian and Chinese interest in developing their naval capabilities and the expansion of the work of the two fleets to include the entire Indian Ocean (56)
4. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION
The struggle between the United States and China has lately emerged as a model for international relations. This is because it comprises a strategic, political, military, and economic axis in the process of deciding the global position in the arena of international relations. Because it influences other dimensions, particularly the strategic, security, commercial, and economic aspects, and these components comprise the core of modern international relations, the technology aspect of the US-Chinese economic struggle has become the most profound and perilous feature of the conflict. The United States of America is concerned about China's meteoric ascent in the international order, the growth of China's GDP, and the prospect of China becoming a global leader in the application of fast technology. Therefore, to win, all sides of the rivalry need to prevent escalation and tension, surrender to economics to achieve their aims and acquire influence, and avoid being sucked into a brutal military war that will lead both sides to lose. The United States of America needs to concentrate its attention on making the most of the technology offender to achieve and maintain control over the commercial, strategic, economic, and security aspects. The United States of America is beginning to accept Chinese goods and is reaping the benefits of the difference in manufacturing costs, as well as the quick technology that China has at cheap prices and record speed.
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