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THE SCENARIOS OF THE US-CHINESE ECONOMIC
COMPETITION
MAYIH SHABEEB AL-SHAMMARI
Faculty of Administration and Economics, University of Kufa, Najaf, Iraq.
SALAM ALI KAREEM ALAMMAR
Faculty of Administration and Economics, University of Kufa, Najaf, Iraq.
Abstract
The American-Chinese competition towards the world will reveal the paths and intentions of both countries in achieving their interests and their vision for these interests, and if the scenarios for this competition are shown, represented by the scenario of the cold economic war, which took a side away from the military war and brought the world into its arena, but the cold war encouraged every force To gain military, economic, political and social assets to be the owner of the big scale and domination of the world, and the scenario of a comprehensive economic confrontation between the United States of America and China, and these scenarios are possible to work out and because of the common interests of both powers to achieve their future goals.
Keywords: US-Chinese relations, Economic Competition, international relations.
1. INTRODUCTION
Since the early nineties of the twentieth century, the United States has become the dominant power and has a great influence on the course of global relations, as the United States has sought to reformulate the global system according to its vision and interests based on the project of hegemony, and the recognition of its individuality in the global system, and this does not mean that there are no global powers seeking to compete And taking the role of practice within the global structure, such as the European Union, China, Japan and India, in addition to Russia and other rising powers, and through these data, the United States of America realized the rise of these powers and the possibility of their emergence as a competition, but rather their emergence as a competition to them in the global system, and one of the most important countries that appears in the scene of competition The economic relationship with the United States of America is China, and therefore this research came to shed light on the scenarios of the US-Chinese economic competition according to the data of political and economic changes in the world. The importance of the research is derived from the subject of the study by highlighting the scenarios of the US-Chinese economic competition, especially since the current world situation requires such a study because of the competition and leadership sought by the great powers through the economy, which represents the focus of this competition between the great powers, and what makes this competition of importance to all countries of the world. The world has witnessed great changes
during the past three decades in terms of competition for positions of political and economic influence. After the world shifted from the Cold War to a unipolar system in the early nineties of the twentieth century, the world witnessed, especially, at the beginning of the third millennium, an upward competition between America and China, and this requires knowledge The expected scenarios for that competition. The scientific hypothesis is an expected answer to the question of the research problem, and on this basis, we assume that the economic competition to reach an advanced role in the arena of international relations depends primarily on the economic side, which witnesses possible scenarios for the crystallization of an economic and political force that dominates or maybe a pole opposed to the United States. To reach an analysis of the reality of competition and anticipate that competition, and its reflection on the world, several goals for research can be identified as follows:
1 - Review scenarios of economic competition.
2 - Analysis of economic competition scenarios between the world, the United States of America, and China.
2. THE US-CHINESE ECONOMIC COLD WAR
The first to use the vocabulary of the Cold War is (Bernard Barosch), who works as an adviser to the US president in 1947, in his talks in Congress, which refers to the nature of the confrontation between the United States of America and the Soviet Union (former) on the political, economic and media fronts, and the speech delivered by the Soviet leader (Stalin) in February 1946, in which he spoke about the inevitability of conflict with the capitalist forces, which guides the Soviet people to be vigilant and not to be complacent, because the end of the war does not mean the relaxation of the nation according to His expression, and because of this declaration, the conflict between the two parties began to be met with a speech by the United States of America with the declaration of US President (Truman) policy of containment and the competition begins, as it continued until 1991 until the collapse of the Soviet pole ().1
Despite the establishment of the United Nations in the hope that it will succeed in what the League of Nations did not succeed in establishing peace in the world and preventing conflicts, the world was divided after World War II into two blocs, each of which seeks to control the largest possible area of the world and to work to include in its ranks the largest number of countries, and the conflict has become between the principles that believe and the laws that control their politics and economy, which prompted this race between the two blocs for armament, especially with regard to Related to nuclear weapons, satellites Thus, relations between the United States (the Western camp) and the former Soviet Union (the Eastern camp) entered into what was known as the Cold War, as each of the two camps spent millions of dollars to spread its influence on the largest number of countries and this competition extended and these attempts to spread influence to various continents of the world and it seems more dangerous than previous wars that burned the world with fire, the former Soviet Union tried Expanding the borders of the West by controlling the Eastern
1Osama Mortada Al-Saidi, The United States of America and the United Nations after the Cold War, Dar Al-Basaer Libraries - Lebanon, 1st Edition, 2011, p. 29.
European States by creating loyal Governments in these States that apply a communist regime in exchange for economic aid to those States2.
On this basis, it has become fashionable to describe the relationship between China and the United States of America as a new "cold war", after the confrontation that lasted for a whole generation between the United States of America and the Soviet Union, which threw domination on Moscow in the second half of the last century. Useful in explaining options, contexts, and dilemmas, but some argue that these comparisons may lead to counter-results, as history does not repeat itself in this way, differences may overcome similarities, and if the term "cold war" is intended to have a huge competition that represents all the strengths and rights of both incompatible political systems, then the competition between China and the United States of America is very similar to that which took place between Washington and Moscow in the second half of the last century () 3.
2.1.The Economic Cold War
First: Results according to the United States of America:
Countries seek to ensure their national interests, and this pushes them to enter into relations with other countries in political interaction relations with different dimensions and connotations under which they are determined and the extent to which interests differ between countries or similarities, and it can be said that countries with conflicting interests rush through the Cold War as political influence in each other and because of this influence is offset by the base of another influence in the process of competition, whose intensity varies from case to case on the one hand and on the other hand stimulates similarity or non-difference in Interests between two countries and within a specific period of time to cooperate in multiple and diverse fields Aware of the quality of the specific benefits on this cooperation, whether in the present or in the future, and promises the internal environment of the country with its facts and variables objective, social, organizational and psychological and all negative and positive effects The first pillar of the decision-making process of the country's foreign policy and in the event of avoiding being drawn into a fierce war that kills human, economic and other resources, the drift into a cold war led by the dominant country may push it to paths governed by competition rather than cooperation4.
The last decade of the last century witnessed a determined effort in the security wing and some security circles to position China in the role of the enemy of the new Cold War, and this is not limited to the Republican opposition and neoconservatives, but also to limit the Democrats. This effort included familiar campaigns to prove
2Shawqi Atallah Al-Jamal and Abdullah Abdul Razzaq Ibrahim, History of Europe from the Renaissance until the Cold War, Egyptian Library, Cairo, 2000, p. 302.
3Sino-American Relations, https://www.bbc.com/arabic/world-56428623
4 Safaa Hussein Ali Al-Jubouri, Sino-American Relations in the Post-Cold War Era, Journal of Legal and Political Sciences, University of Tikrit, Vol. 3, Year 3, No. 12, pp. 160-161.
China's violation of human rights and to greatly exaggerate its military capabilities. The hope was to create a military strategy for the United States of America to contain China according to the model of containing the Soviet Union during the Cold War to try to deprive the Chinese state. By forcing it to penetrate into an endless arms race and end the Chinese state from within by movements calling for democratic revolution and ethnic separatism, and at the same time work is being done to neutralize the Chinese nuclear deterrent by the American missile defense system, and in 1999 Republicans rose in Congress, which suffers from panic over the missile chasm, and the Cox Commission accused China of wanting to successfully spy on the United States so that after a short period of imitation nuclear technology it could threaten the United States in The report declared that all Chinese visitors to the United States are potential spies, and this report was the beginning of a harmonious campaign to the Republican media to confront the administration of former US President (Clinton) on its weakness, calling for more hardline policies against China, and this campaign was full of the following phrases, which is the greatest nuclear theft since (Rosenberg) (Soviet spies who provided Moscow with the nuclear secrets of the United States in the forties) and every nuclear weapon in the United States warehouses became exposed to theline t Jane Kirkpatrick, former ambassador of the United Nations, stated that this makes us more exposed to direct and immediate danger as never in our history and the greatest espionage success against the United States during the success of the Soviet Union in the fifth decade of the last century and echoing the racist pattern (yellow danger) that preceded the Cold War long ().5 Second: Results for China:
The term second version of the Cold War is in the role of competition between the United States and China following China's economic rise and transformation into the fastest-growing economy in the world, which challenges the economic system led by the United States, and through lays the foundation for becoming a military superpower for being the second largest military spending in the world after the United States and its military spending is estimated at 250 One billion dollars, China is using military force to assert its sovereignty claims to areas of the South China Sea, where China is establishing artificial islands, while at the same time establishing its first overseas military bases in Djibouti at the Bab al-Mandab Strait crossing.6
In the twenty-first century, there are three main tasks for China, including pushing its quest for modernization, and this modernization needs two basic conditions, one is international peace and the other is internal political stability, achieving national unity,
5Anatole Levin, America between right and wrong, Anatomy of American Nationalism, translated by Nazareth Al-Saadoun, Beirut, Arab Organization for Translation, Center for Arab Unity Studies, 1st Edition, 2008, pp. 407-409.
Sayed6 Firas Hussein Najaf, Is China and America Really in a Cold War, translated by Ahmed Al-Shafei, American National Interest Magazine, 2022,
https://www.sis.gov.eg/Story/230870/?lang=a
maintaining world peace, and promoting common development. Global ambitions China should act as follows:
1 - To accommodate its neighbors.
2 - To be an effective player in multilateral international organizations.
3 - Use economic relationships to win friends. Third: Global Results:
The Taiwan problem is one of the outstanding global issues that cause an important danger facing Sino-American relations. There is agreement among most political researchers and specialists in Chinese affairs that the Taiwan problem can destroy security and stability in East Asia more than any other problem and destroy Sino-American relations. The reason for this is that Taiwan is effectively independent and looking for official recognition, which is a central interest for China because of its influence. Directly in the continuation of the Communist Party in power as well as the achievement of China's economic growth and the strength and prestige of the Chinese state and no Chinese leader, communist or not, can cede Taiwan without causing the collapse of his system of government, the Chinese political leadership has put forward in order to solve the Taiwan issue a new concept represented in the slogan of one country and two different systems, and in return, China is ready to fight a possible war even against the United States of America if necessary in order to The inclusion of Taiwan within the framework of the one-China policy, and the United States of America since 1950 is the main responsible for the emergence of the Taiwanese file, on the one hand, America officially recognizes that Taiwan is an integral part of China, through many official statements and three bilateral declarations since 19727, but on the other hand, it is supportive of Taiwan, and this represents a contradiction in American foreign policy.
The United States of America was also able to skillfully and accurately exploit the Taiwan problem to serve its interests in the region, and it is known that the Chinese and American sides settled after lengthy negotiations that took place during the period 1978-1982. The two sides also tacitly agreed to put aside their differences on the issue and develop their relations, but the Chinese were never satisfied with this compromise and often repeated that Taiwan was on the verge of unification with the motherland had it not been for the intervention of the United States of America, Taiwan escaped forced reunification with the motherland thanks to the protection of the U.S. Seventh Fleet stationed in the Taiwan Strait after 1950 and thanks to Taiwan's mutual security agreement with the United States in 1950. In 1954, after the normalization of relations between the United States of America and the People's Republic of China, this treaty was abrogated in 1979, although informal relations and economic ties between Washington and Taiwan continued8.
2.2. Is China a threat to the United States of America? First: Results for the United States:
Relations between the two countries are ebb and flow since the beginning of the eighth decade of the twentieth century, on the one hand, the United States of
7Safaa Hussein Ali al-Jubouri, op. cit., p. 170.
8Safaa Hussein Ali al-Jubouri, op. cit., p. 170.
America is pursuing a policy of openness with China and technological developments, but it fears that it will have a partner in leading the world, controlling it and winning it after what was between the American and Soviet poles and was able to disintegrate the Soviet Union and unilateralism and control the world, and in return there are tensions between the two countries, represented by the Taiwan issue and the issue of human rights and trade, and the United States is trying to hold this leadership And exclusivity in the world for the maximum possible period and this matter has become the concern of strategic thought in how to maintain and defend it from any force, challenge, threat or participation in it (love of authoritarianism), as the United States seeks alliances to impose its influence in any region or region of the world with the aim of weakening the entity of each force or external threat to its entity, but because of the environment of the international system based on the hands China's domestic, regional and international expansionist policy, which tries to open up to the global environment by imposing its technology, industries and trade to all parts of the world with an unparalleled competitive advantage.
All these factors have stirred a debate and debate in the United States about whether China will lead in the next century as a major power playing a role similar to the role played by the Soviet Union in the Cold War, or following Japan's model of sufficiency in its economic giant place, and to answer this main question, two schools of American thinking have emerged that argue and differ in the method of dealing with China, the first is whether the United States continues to support opening up with China and build partnership on various issues, and the other follows a policy of containment. Similar to that policy followed by the United States with the Soviet Union in its emergence as a rival power after World War II in this wide controversy, as it took the opinion of the school that called for caution against China and how to work to contain it because of its prediction of the rise of China as a fighting power, this will inevitably lead to instability in the continent of Asia and in a way that challenges American vital interests, as this school expected that a strong China will try to achieve a long list of regional ambitions, this must be confronted This school also argued that although China today has become more open since the Chinese revolution in 1949, but since the end of the ninth decade of the last century, Chinese leaders, especially after the weakness of (Deng Zhaoping), are making targets opposite to the United States, and working to weaken American influence in Asia and support China's presence in the northeastern seas of China in a way that enables it to control sea lines. main for the region (9).
Each pole of competition exerts pressure on countries to join under its banner and acquire the largest number of countries to fight the Cold War and control the largest possible number of geographical areas to impose its hegemony and policy on it by limiting Chinese expansion, trade, and technology that China seeks through companies, banks, organizations, and others, and the United States seeks to achieve
9Mr. Amin Shibli, The Nineties, Post-Cold War Questions, World of Books, Cairo, 1st Edition, 2001, pp. 122123.
economic integration and geopolitical cooperation through global governance institutions represented by the United Nations, the World Trade Organization and the alliance of countries. The five (Birx) and NATO This quest is very strong, and the hegemony of the United States on the world makes it a great empire, but the rise of China, which is considered a competitor to this hegemony, and the limitation of Washington's monopoly in the world, raises fears and caution of the United States of the expansion and acquisition that China can do.
The grand imperialist strategy emphasizes America's right to resort to waging a preemptive war at the expense of a pre-emptive war and not a pre-emptive war, because a preemptive war may fall under the framework of international law, and when Russian bombers were discovered near the United States of America coming from a military base in Grenada, when the Reagan administration realized the possibility of it in 1983, and the possibility of bombing it has clear features. Any preemptive attack to strike aircraft or even the air base from which they were launched would be justified in light of An appropriate interpretation of the Charter of the United Nations, just as Cuba, Nicaragua, and many other countries could have exercised the same right for many years during the American attacks. 10 Second: Results for China:
China is the main competitor to the United States of America as it is determined to rise continuously and within a short period and can win local, regional, and global markets thanks to its products with high economic efficiency and low costs compared to the products of other countries, due to low wages and abundance of resources, and China seeks to create a large gap between it and other competing countries. The Chinese strategic culture differs from the Western culture because of its focus on moral, social, and humanitarian factors in the field of security and its non-use of violence and force in resolving conflicts and crises that it faces in its march at odds with the Western culture in which military force and violence prevail to achieve its material and other interests, and China also has diplomacy and material sacrifice to gain alliances and control markets to obtain future returns. The Chinese cultural value has a major impact on the Chinese decision-making process, which reflects the Confucian philosophy*, through the use of the principle of harmony in the world, so China began to use soft power and accordingly Confucius institutes were established in universities, and high schools around the world and the aim was to make China more attractive, as people come to understand the country's culture and can read and learn the Chinese language, so observers say that the rise of China was not the problem with the result of the use of force China's foreign policy is mainly based on establishing peace and working to continue it regionally and internationally, and this is what allows China to develop its economic growth to build a developed and continuous economic society, and Chinese leaders do not view economic growth as a success. Chinese leaders also use the principles
10Noam Chomsky: Hegemony or Survival - The American Quest for World Domination, translated by Sami Al-Kaaki, Dar Al-Kitab Al-Arabi, Beirut, 1st Edition, 2004, p. 20.
of reform and opening up to boost the Chinese economy. The Chinese awareness of global transformations was based on the desire to protect the experience of economic reform, preserve its special character and create the appropriate conditions for its continuation and necessary for its success, because of its importance in building China's future role in the international system, whose features are based on economic data. China's policy towards regional issues remains constant and considers them one of the basic interests such as issues (Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang and the South China Sea), and China has long been interested in promoting a safe regional environment, promoting economic integration, seeking to find common ground with neighboring countries and reassuring these countries that their rise will be peaceful, and at the same time China is trying to obstruct the emergence of any coalition that seeks to contain it, as for its relationship with America, it has begun to follow a new style of relations with This is one of the main goals of its foreign policy in order to avoid the use of the United States as pretexts of humanity, such as the issue of Tibet or the issue of interference in China's internal affairs (Xinjiang), and through the foregoing, we can say that the priorities of China's basic interests are the preservation of China's basic system and security, state sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the continued stable development of the Chinese economy.
Third: Global Results:
The Chinese rise is an earthquake that hits Western countries and the United States of America, and confidence in the leadership of the United States began to be shaken in the leadership of the United States of America, due to technological and economic development and geographical expansion in the dissemination of Chinese policy around the world, which further deteriorated American alliances, and an example of this is the US-Iraqi relations that have taken a position of mistrust between them, as well as the relations of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with the United States of America. There are many internal and external phenomena and factors that favor the assumption of the relative decline of American hegemony, the rise of China, and the threat to the ability of the United States to continue to lead the world, including11:
1 - Global mistrust in U.S. world leadership has also increased since the outbreak of the economic crisis in 2008, which resulted in rising U.S. debt, large fiscal deficits, and declining confidence in the U.S. dollar.
2- The involvement of the United States in many wars and conflicts throughout the world established the position of hegemony and prove the position of American power in addition to achieving the project of the American century.
3 - The deterioration of the American political system represented by the Congress, which constitutes the elected legislative bodies, has become unable to pass laws without the permission of the lobbyists of the institutions that control the financing of their electoral campaigns.
The11 rise of China and the transfer of power from West to East https://www.ammonnews.net/article/541537
4 - A revival of the phenomenon of the hardline partisan division between Democrats and Republicans and their dependence on commercial companies to obtain financial funding for elections.
5 - The world is going through a stage of political balance and a tremendous change that no longer exists for several centuries at the time of the decline of knowledge and economic power and its rapid spread, and as the industrial revolution developed and expanded to the dominance of Europe and the United States on the global economy, and China likely surpasses the United States of America as the center of gravity of the global economy, which represents the beginning of the end of the leadership enjoyed by the United States of America for more than a century, and this means that The world is about to make the greatest strategic shift through the lens of international relations in the long term.
6 - China's global rise is a historical stage that extends to deep civilizational roots that cannot be extracted from the current economic primacy of China, which is linked to the domination of the Chinese Empire in 221 BC.
7 Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia's main national interests have remained constant, and Russian foreign policy has evolved according to the concept adopted by Russia regarding the challenges facing it and its national goals, which are affected by geopolitical, economic, ethnic and religious factors, so Russia has developed a concept that the achievement of the status of a superpower is vital for the continuation of its security and economic presence, and work to support its security environment in the East through Strengthen its relations with China, India, Japan, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia (12).
8 - The Cold War also paved the way for India to occupy a prominent place as the leader of the Non-Aligned Movement, which gave it importance on the international stage, India seeks to carve an independent path to rise as a great power and this situation requires capable and usable tools to support its continental and maritime security needs, India has also adopted soft power largely depending on its heritage and civilization, Indian culture has a long history and is one of the most important sources of Indian soft power, and India has rarely resorted to the use of coercion in its relations with its neighbors India also seeks to be a link between rich and poor (North and South from a global perspective), and between the United States and China and seems more eager than China to define a global role for itself as an important player among the world's four major powers. European'13' .
2.3. Is the American Hegemony to The Demise?
First: Results for the United States:
12Nawar Jalil Hashem, America and the Rising Powers (US Policy towards the BRICS Countries in the World System), 1st Edition, Publications Company for Distribution and Publishing, Beirut, 2020, pp. 125-129.
13 Ibid., pp. 132-133.
Immediately after the end of the Cold War and the demise of the Soviet Union as a great power on the international scene, attention focused on the United States of America as the power that emerged victorious from this war and its possession of this unique gathering of military, economic, technological and diplomatic power factors that are not combined for any existing international power and this encouraged the Americans' belief that if the twentieth century was an American century and the twenty-first century would be an American century as well, and American optimists became in America's new situation to Affirm the right and capacity of the United States to lead the world, as well as its responsibilities for world peace and stability, and this peace always needs a force capable of imposing its rules, and it must intervene by force if necessary to establish security and stability in the international system14.
The United States retains its superiority in the world and the region, which determines the second important factor in the new global turmoil, as the traditional American foreign and security policy has been of interest and no country or group of countries in the world has the resources, experience or strategic sense as is the case with the United States of America, and also no competitor to this role has the global potential as the United States so far, and the United States of America after sixty years of global hegemony has infrastructure as well as Armaments, diplomatic tools and skills, surpass any other country or group of countries, and there can be no stable world order without American commitment and leadership. 15 Second: Results for China:
The increasing challenges in the global system and the dominance of globalization and its increasing systems day by day make the American hegemony decay at the level at which globalization and its systems are increasing, including China, which has emerged strongly and effectively in the international system, this matter must maintain the United States position and entity through its economic and technological center because the current competition for the global system under the economic and technological centers of these countries. China is strongly coming to participate in global politics, it does not recognize the so-called leading countries and opposes hegemony by a particular country, but China must upgrade its power strategy of setting China's priorities for economic hard power, and it must focus on improving its soft power and it is in its interest to gradually expand its soft and hard military power, and China is supposed to continue
14Mr. Amin Shibli, op. cit., p. 49.
John15 The United States of America in the Third ,C. Cornelm and Died Gronzoker
translated by Heba Serry and Rania .Millennium: A Great Power at the Crossroads
.Muhammad Khalif, Arab Nile Group, 1st Edition, 2002, pp. 205-206
to use its power mainly for defense purposes because it seeks a leading role at the global level. But China must upgrade its power strategy in the following areas16: 1- China should prioritize its strong economic strength more specifically, and China should more effectively utilize its power in economic attraction through its expanding market, foreign investment, and aid, and since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, China has imported goods worth 750 billion dollars and created more than 14 million jobs for the countries and regions concerned.
2. China should focus on improving its soft power A foreign policy based on equality, mutual benefit, and win-win cooperation can win China many friends and cooperation partners, this is also the resource from which China's primary influence in world affairs stems, Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang once said: "China's words and honest work, not exercising hegemony, and advocating peaceful development and win-win cooperation in the world, in my opinion, are China's strongest soft power." However, the UN Security Council sanctions on Iran and North Korea and the intervention of the international community in Libya and Syria indicate that China's insistence on non-interference and the peaceful resolution of international disputes faces serious challenges, and Chinese diplomacy must keep pace with the times. (17).
3. China should gradually expand its soft military power, as China's defense budget - which amounted to 1450 billion Chinese yuan in 2022, thus becoming the second country in the world with an annual defense budget of more than 230 billion dollars, and with the support of national environmental power, China should seek to develop its strict military power resources, transformation capability China should also strengthen its capacity for international peacekeeping and humanitarian assistance, improve its international participation in military industries, and increase foreign military aid.
4- China should strengthen its hard power and hard soft power to the appropriate level, given the fact that power politics are still prevalent in the world and some countries are trying to exclude and balance China, China should develop its military power moderately, to effectively counter power politics and counter-balancing acts. This includes the development of military deterrence, economic and diplomatic countermeasures, institutional balance, and the ability to confront public opinion. Third: Global Results:
The position of Western countries and the world towards the American hegemony on the world is a solid position and is not affected by any misinformation of this global system, but after the events of September 11, 2001, these countries changed their position towards this American hegemony, on the part of the White House and its allies This act is a terrorist act and cannot be tolerated and must be eliminated, but from the point of view of some other countries is a heroic act being the first act
(16)Chen, Zhimin and Chang, Lulu, The Power Strategy of Chinese Foreign Policy, ederal Ministry of Education and Research, NFG Working Paper No. 03, , February 2013,p19-23 . www. (asianperceptions.eu) .
(17)Chen, Zhimin and Chang,p.s,p23.
that penetrated this system and its global hegemony, and the reaction of the US administration was On this subject to interfere in the affairs of the Middle East and the world by taking the right of veto to invade any country was the invasion of Afghanistan under the pretext of (Osama bin Laden) and the invasion of Iraq under the pretext of weapons of mass destruction, and this is far from what they claim, but through these events and their exploitation of the situation of the establishment of military bases in countries that were outside its control, and the failure of the policy of the United States of America in these countries opened the doors for emerging countries to break the barrier of unipolar hegemony, and these countries are China and Russia and other countries of the world.
3. THE SCENARIO OF COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC CONFRONTATION
The end of the Cold War era at the end of the last century and the accompanying recent global changes were reflected in the relations of power and strategic interests among the major powers in general and the United States of America and China in particular, and after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the transformation of the American strategic vision towards China as the competing power of the United States at the regional and global levels, and in light of this competition, the economic factor has a prominent impact to determine the centers of power in the global system, especially after the decline of the role of the variable The military in global relations, and at the level with which it has become difficult to refer to a unipolar system without addressing the strategic priorities that include the redistribution of power on an economic and non-military basis, and from here emerged to the global arena the economic factor is an important basis for demonstrating the strength of the country in light of the new global changes, and based on that fact, the priority given to economic considerations (geoeconomic) and the increasing demand for goods and services, as well as cases of scarcity and shortage of some natural resources and instability Political and social in countries that contain large stocks of those resources, the competition for energy sources represented by oil and important minerals be the hallmark of the regional and global environment in the twenty-first century, and for this the United States of America and China have given this subject great importance in the content of their economic goals towards the world in the post-Cold War era, so the world is a circle of geopolitical competition in the field of natural resources under the title of resource conflict, The world contains global oil reserves as well as large quantities of minerals, especially as we know that the needs of China's rapid economic growth and the necessary response to the effects of American economic globalization are motivating both countries to acquire resources slobally18.
18Salim Kata Ali, US-Chinese Competition (The Direction of the African Continent after the Cold Ruin of Sudan as a Model), Dar Amjad for Publishing and Distribution, Jordan, 2014, pp. 316-317.
3.1.The Continued US Hegemony
First: Results for the United States:
The United States took to expand its influence and hegemony over the world, not only through military power, but through soft power and the role played by this power in consolidating American hegemony, and from this concept, the hegemonic power is able to strongly impose its interests and desires on the economic, political, intellectual, diplomatic, and cultural aspects, as expressed by (Joseph Gove) for this hegemony by saying that the hegemonic power is the one that has interests that extend across the entire global system, and its power exceeds the capabilities of its competitors by a large margin, the United States The United States is the only country that has this power, as some schools of thought expressed in analyzing the global role of the growing role of the United States of America in the so-called empire, as is the case of the Roman Empire and the British Empire, and this analogy is not represented by the imperial invasion based on the seizure of territory, but based on the ordinal system to soft power relations to become in which one power is significantly stronger than any other power, this reinforces the determination of the United States of America to move towards hegemony The phenomenon of hegemony was not just a concept different from the term domination, which global politics in the past two centuries used to adopt and promote, but it became a common concept and a mixture resulting from that intended harmonization and the elements of its impact on the circle of global action and the ability to exercise influence and perhaps monopolize it, which makes us in front of the American unilateralism and the absolute hegemony of the United States of America (19)-The strategy of comprehensive hegemony to reach universality or nationalism has become a reality for the United States of America as it aims to expand its strategic control, which is a must, as it contributes to preserving its interests in the areas of its control, and this will not be the goal of keeping pace with the policy of balance of power, but through the adoption of the policy of American hegemony and imposing influence on its rival powers in order to be at the top of the global political pyramid, especially in a world full of competition and violence to confront and resist it, and this calls for it to Consistency between its military, political and economic power, as well as the imposition of its power to limit the proliferation of lethal weapons and reach global security and stability, and thus the burden of international responsibility to reach universality and nationalism This requires the United States to be the first over all its competitors, although there are clear signals that take from the behavior and practice of the United States that emphasize the strategy of
19Muhammad Ali Amnif Al-Rafi'i, Soft Power and its Impact on the Future of American Hegemony, Dar Al-Sanhouri, Beirut, 1st Edition, 2016, pp. 236-237.
hegemony is no longer the only realistic option in front of it, but its grand strategy puts a number of alternatives and options that push it to the specified goal (20) . Second: Results for China:
The continued Chinese penetration into the world to obtain natural resources and energy sources, and one of the most important of these resources is oil, which represents the heart of the US-Chinese competition and the spread of its influence and capabilities in all aspects that enable it to this incursion, as China resorted to making attractive offers to countries that possess natural resources (oil), and providing infrastructure strategies for countries that possess these resources and suffering from the lack of infrastructure and China's establishment of this infrastructure and paying its cost by purchasing A percentage of oil and within a certain period and the payment is by term in exchange for part of the natural resources (oil), as China is a partner and potential enemy to Europe and the United States of America because China is a partner in most European companies and ports and infrastructure, and is a potential enemy through incursion into all parts of the world.
The United States of America may be exposed in the future to rapid changes in the patterns of global production that are constantly changing, and it is unable to confront these changes and new patterns of economic and social prosperity, and some other powers are trying to keep up with them and even surpass them, so the intertwining of multiple American interests and commitments and increasing them at the same time may make the United States of America unable to defend its position that it occupied, as these interests and obligations are faced by the United States at the same time at the global level to retain The progressive civilizational extension reached by the United States must have an end in the future regardless of this progress, whether the United States likes it or not, because history has shown that there is no continuation of excessive extension without end (every beginning has an end), which may be very slow or continue if the United States is able to change its ideological patterns adopted in Its policy of invincible power 21. Third: Global Results:
Some opinions believe that a clash will arise when the line of the rise of Chinese power meets the line of the decline of American power, as this is close to the historical experience that indicates that the rising powers represented by Europe and the United States have contributed escalating to the turmoil of the world order, and the political expressions issued by the two sides indicate the escalation of military tension between them, and the possibility of direct military confrontation between them will not be excluded, although certainly undesirable and through indicators in this regard. US Secretary of Defense (Mark Esper) that the United States
20Brahim Ahmed, The World State and the New International Order, PhD thesis, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Sanya - Oran, 2010, pp. 138-139.
21 Hassan Muhammad Salim, op. cit., p. 85.
of America is equipping its forces around the world and redeploying them in preparation for a possible confrontation with China, and NATO Secretary-General (Jens Stoltenberg) asked NATO members to prepare to face China's threats, and the Chinese Ministry of State Security warns that China responded to the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic and could have turned relations with the United States of America into an armed confrontation in the short term, The rivalry was likely to turn into a real war in the South China Sea, for in the event of a small military conflict between the two sides, the global economy could lose trillions of dollars, not to mention the disruption of supply chains around the world22-
With regard to the destructive capacity of war, as a result of the development brought about by the technological revolution in the field of military industries leads to the development of conventional weapons as well as the nuclear weapons system, but the thought of not waging nuclear war is more rational, because nuclear war if it is destined to break out, God forbid, it will be total and mutual destruction for both parties, especially when the abolition of The boundaries to differentiate between tactical military objectives and strategic civilian targets, and the possibility of war with conventional weapons is also prohibited at the high cost, which also includes the risks of escalation with non-conventional weapons, and on the other hand, the gains achieved from the outbreak of war between the United States of America and China are not large, but on the contrary, their costs may increase due to the potential high costs, Therefore, the war between the two parties is useless from the economic side, as well as the military escalation, which is determined by the lack of capabilities and capabilities available to activate this trend, due to the dispersion of American military power and its distribution throughout the world, which represents a drain on this power. 23
A direct clash between the United States of America and China is unlikely at all, because China's policy is a policy of containment and not a policy of clash, and the will of China, which seeks to build economic and military power without confrontation and non-collision with the great powers, as well as its quest to include countries to form alliances under its leadership and emergence as a dominant power in the world comparable to American hegemony and its status may seek countries to join in their alliances.
3.2. The Conflict Occurrence
First: Results for the United States:
Pessimists predict an imminent conflict with the recovery of Chinese power and its quest to remove the United States from world leadership, and some believe that this will be frustrating by accepting areas of influence in which the United States limits its activities mainly in the eastern Pacific, but this response to the rise of China represents the destruction of American credibility and will lead the countries of the
U.S22.-China conflict, https://studies.aljazeera.net/ar/article/4860
23 Salim Kata Ali, op. cit., pp. 329-330.
region to an alliance instead of balance with China, and this policy will represent the beginning of the end to the American century, in return, the continued presence of the United States can enhance The natural equilibrium responses of the countries of the region, and helps to create an environment that somehow encourages responsible Chinese behavior and the appropriate political response to China's rise is supposed to balance realism and complementarity 24 .
The Chinese president also spoke, saying that I am ready to fill the vacuum in global leadership caused by the transformation of the United States of America more than a more global power in early 2017 that may be the seed for igniting a third world war between the United States of America (the American eagle), which has been imposing its hegemony on the world undisputed for decades, and China (the Chinese dragon) coming from the East, which may not quench its thirst other than the removal of America from the throne of world leadership, and how not to echo the fires of war. Under the ashes, it almost kills the whole world and wipes out its existence, and what the Chinese president said is only the culmination of the deep-rooted differences between Beijing and Washington, and then came the message of the US President (Joe Biden) that America returned to confirm this raging conflict between the old hero and the newcomer The dispute between the Chinese dragon and the American eagle is not a conflict today, of course, and not far from the thinking of the American mind, which knows very well that the rising economic power coming from the far east will destroy the strongholds of power Washington must move quickly to counter this frightening Chinese tide25. Second: Results for China:
In interaction with the US moves in the regional arena of China, China is working to develop its military capabilities, as it spends annually $ 250 billion on its army, and the most important area of Chinese military investment is naval power As stated in the report of the US Naval Intelligence Office, the Chinese military navy had at the end of 2020 several 360 naval pieces compared to 300 in the US Navy, and this indicates that China has the largest global naval power today, and according to the same report, China will have 400 A naval combat piece in 2025, while the United States may have 355, and other US reports that China's naval combat power will more than triple in size in just two decades, and China is also building submarines capable of launching nuclear missiles, aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and amphibious assault ships, to control the South China Sea as an area located in its geopolitical space26. The current generation of Chinese leaders has realized that rapid economic
24Joseph Nye, Is the American Century Over, translated by Muhammad Ibrahim Al-Abd, King Fahd Publishing Library, Riyadh, 2016, p. 64.
Why25 would war break out between America and China, https://www.alquds.co.uk
26Amiri Abdel Wahab, US-Chinese Competition through the Theories of Hegemony and the Transformation of Power, Algerian Journal of Research and Studies, Vol. 05, No. 02, 2022,
p. 782.
growth is key to domestic political stability, so they have focused on economic growth and what is called (harmony) of the international environment, but times have changed and power sometimes creates arrogance, as some believe that rising powers use with the passage of time their newly discovered economic power to broad political, cultural and military ends, and this is what the dominant power does, China may certainly be one of these powers, as Chinese leaders created a myth But when Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said in his speech at the 2010 ASEAN meeting, "China is a big country and other countries are small countries and that is the truth," China sees itself as the Middle Kingdom or the tributary system of countries in East Asia, as some analysts believe that it seeks to create this system and others such as John Akinbari believe that the new international order It depends on the characteristic of open economic integration, and the ability to contain China is better than the transition to the Chinese-led system, and so far Chinese leaders have taken only few steps towards the main global role, whether hegemonic or stakeholders, and some analysts believe that China seeks in the short term to displace America as a dominant power in East Asia from its hegemony, but in the long term China will compete with the American position as a dominant power in the world, as others believe that China aims to divide the Pacific Ocean and keep the American presence away from it beyond the chain of islands that are opposite its coasts represented by Japan, but many experts do not agree on these views to accurately assess Chinese intentions, because China has benefited greatly from the existing global institutional order but is also determined to make some changes, and the Chinese themselves cannot know the visions of future generations27. For its part, China is aware that much of the world's rivalry cards are in the hands of the United States of America, and therefore it is certain that it will complete its military, economic, and political growth and strengthen its global influence 28 . Third: Global Results:
A group of researchers believes that China has been able in recent years to use its soft power to support its position as a major power, in contrast to another point of view that China, like other authoritarian countries, misread the concept of soft power in the information age and therefore could not identify the appropriate methods for the accumulation of soft power over time, but in a way In recent years, China has directed many soft power initiatives not only to the developing world but also to the West through the use of all cultural, media and economic mechanisms.
27Joseph Nye, Is the American Century Over, translated by Muhammad Ibrahim Al-Abed, King Fahd Publishing Library, Riyadh, 2016, pp. 62-63.
28Tamer Ibrahim Kamel Abdo, The Conflict between the United States, China and Russia (International and Strategic Politics), 1st Edition, Arab Knowledge Bureau, Cairo, 2013, p. 234.
Chinese officials have stressed the importance of soft power as one of the strategic elements of China's rise 29
In the case of the Cold War, new world order is likely to emerge that seeks the new rising power that must be given a role in shaping global rules and institutions, and the Sino-American conflict is currently fueling a large-scale process of deglobalization, or at least the division of the global economy into two incompatible economic cuffs, and in both cases, it will be Trade in goods and services, capital, labor, information, data, and technology, as well as the Internet Western and Chinese nodes will not connect, and due to the independent control of China and the United States in access to the important technologies of artificial intelligence and 5G, the world will enter into a process far from ending globalization and fragmentation, and the factors affecting the position of both the United States and China in the future global system is the extent to which both parties can win Europe and Russia or neutralize them (30).
3.3. Are China and the United States At War?
First: Results for the United States of America:
The Chinese army continues to implement a strong new plan aimed at transforming it into a global army during the middle of the current century, and when the Chinese army reaches that level of strength, this will undoubtedly lead to the provocative actions of the People's Liberation Army in the South and East China Seas, as in any other location that the Chinese government will consider crucial to its interests. Again, unlike Taiwan, China is angry at the sailing of American ships in the South and East China Seas, as China considers these waters to be Chinese territory while the United States considers them global waters, and therefore it is a place for global freedom of navigation the South China Sea and the East China Sea represent areas with huge navigation traffic in which military and commercial ships are running, and this increases the likelihood of a confrontation at any time. If we read the objectives of the 2018 U.S. National Defense Strategy, we find that they seek not only to strengthen U.S. forces and deterrence weapons in the Pacific but also to expand the network of U.S. allies in the region. A U.S. military presence only on China's borders, but also means ensuring that the countries where U.S. bases are located will essentially be on the side of the United States and not on China s side in any potential conflict, despite all these tensions, experts naturally agree that direct
Sally29 Nabil Al-Shaarawy, Sino-American Relations and the Impact of Transformation in the International System, Al-Arabi for Publishing and Distribution, Cairo, 1st Edition, 2018, p.
251.
The 30 U.S.-China conflict and its impact on the world order, https://studies.aljazeera.net/ar/article/4860
conflict is still (unlikely), due to The high costs in lives and money that the two countries will pay, no matter how victorious or defeated 31 the war may be. Second: Results for China:
The main strategic goal of all Chinese political leaders is the economic advancement of achieving high and steady economic growth rates, and this requires directing Chinese resources to the economy more than building and strengthening Chinese military power, as it has a strategic orientation of coexistence with the reality of unipolarity, the reality of this unilateralism has exempted China from great security and political obligations even within its regional surroundings, and also provided it with an opportunity for strategic retreat to rebuild so that one of the foreign policy experts The Chinese wrote an article in which he distinguished between the dominant power and the dominant behavior, suggesting that China prefer the hegemonic power (meaning the United States) as a solution and an appropriate alternative to hegemonic behavior, considering that China's achievement of peace and development along with the desired economic goals can remain revived in a unipolar world, and according to that vision came the calculated security strategy that gives priority to the element of economic growth and stability and striving to create an international and regional environment conducive to achieving development and prosperity followed by capacity building. Modern military In this calculated security strategy, China also aims to achieve the following objectives:
A. Achieving the economic growth of society and the individual according to the dictates of political ideology without strictness, but rather taking into account the need to adapt to the internal reality and the international environment.
B. Ensuring the security of the state and its political system as well as the security of society.
c. China should possess military capabilities and technologies to ensure its political, economic, and social security.
d. China's emergence from isolation and a return to its historical role as a pivotal geopolitical power in Asia, taking into account the fact that China's return to its status in its regional and international environment depends on its economic achievements, as there is no effective defense policy without strong economic growth32.
Third: Global Results:
Both the American and Chinese militaries are nowadays creating more of what looks like (tripping wires) on the edge of the Pacific Ocean, and that the fear is all fear that one of them will stumble on the behavior set by the other, and then it will become possible that the two largest powers in the world will enter into open conflict, as former Secretary of Defense (Mark Esper) explained that there is increasing tension between the United States and China and that China is looking to expand its military power beyond its borders, according to the Chinese vision The
Who31 will win the war between China and America, https://www.marefaah.com/2021 /10.
32Tamer Ibrahim Kamel, op. cit., p. 226.
catalysts for the outbreak of fighting also represent China's claim of sovereignty and control over a number of islands in that region, as China's economic power that is growing day by day cannot be overlooked, at the same time we are witnessing changes in alliances between countries in the region and constant tension centered on the Korean peninsula between the two enemy sisters (North Korea is China's ally, South Korea is an ally of the United States), and there are also growing concerns about cyber warfare and control of space as well as The obvious truth about China's bold moves is so bold that the Pentagon has had to rebuild its entire worldview, and some argue that they hear the drums of war beating, but they may not have been faint and even not heard in the warning issued by the Chief of Staff of the US Air Force (Charles "CQ" Brown), when he said that the next war will be a war against a counterpart to us, China or Russia, a war that is likely to witness bitter fighting. It will also witness attrition fighting that will be reminiscent of the battles of World War II, and it will never war with an easy fighting environment like the war that the United States has been accustomed to since the Second Gulf War against Iraq (Desert Storm), but a real military confrontation always looms on the horizon, and many experts believe that China is likely to fight a political and economic war to undermine the United States, as well as promote China's strategic goals, The most likely situation to provoke a military conflict, whose scenarios have been developed for the most numerous cases in the corridors of the United States Department of Defense, is a Chinese military escalation in the South China Sea, where the Chinese attack Taiwan or even launch a strong invasion against it33.
A war between the United States and China is not inevitable, but it is possible, as these scenarios have made it clear that tension between the two sides due to China's annoying rise, which creates conditions in which accidental or unrelated events can occur in a large-scale conflict, and when deterrence options are made, fulfilling obligations led by a long-standing treaty, or demanding the respect their countries deserve, the leaders of both sides may fall into a trap that they know exists, and even believe. The continued advancement of modern technologies of anti-weapons satellites is still highly secretly divided, the potential effects are multiplied but not fully understood before being used in a real conflict.34
4. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION
The United States of America is concerned about China's meteoric ascent in the international order, the growth of China's GDP, and the prospect of China becoming a global leader in the application of fast technology. The economic strategy of the United States of America is geared around putting a halt to China's fast economic expansion and slowing down its overall development in any way possible. The purpose of the Chinese economic strategy is to dominate and control rapid
Who33 will win the war between China and America, https://www.marefaah.com/2021 /10 .
34 Graham Ellison, The Imperative of War between Rising Powers and Hegemonic Powers,
translated by Ismail Bahaa El-Din Suleiman, Dar Al-Kitab Al-Arabi, Beirut, 2018, p. 356.
technology, concentrate on it, form alliances with the biggest number of nations, take control of the largest number of firms, and engage in economic partnerships with a large number of countries, particularly those in West Asia and Africa. Countries have a responsibility to seize the opportunity presented by the current state of rivalry between the United States and China and profit from it by acquiring many advantages that they would not have been able to gain under normal circumstances. To bring down the high expenses at which the United States is working, the United States must ally with China without resorting to escalation and invest in the experience and technology that China has. To keep China from being sucked into a military conflict and to improve its chances of winning in the international arena, China must make efforts to increase its diplomatic and economic ties with other nations across the globe.
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