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EXPERT VIEW: WHAT IT TAKES TO ACHIEVE THE GOALS SET
FILIPPO MALINVERNO,
FILIPPO MALINVERNO REPRESENTS THE EUROPEAN HOUSE - AMBROSETTI OF ITALY. HE PARTICIPATED AS AN OBSERVER IN THE DECEMBER 22, 2019 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN UZBEKISTAN.
I general, in all the areas and themes touched upon, the President's speech maintained a single fil-rouge: the enhancement, in different forms and ways, of the cultural, religious, social and above all human heritage of the Uzbek nation as a starting point for the construction of an increasingly equal and developed country. A country capable of responding effectively to the demands of its citizens in the name of social harmony and, at the same time, eager to make its contribution to the progress of the international community in the region of reference, Central Asia.
In light of what the President said, the improvement of a business climate that is still excessively closed and not
/'ust over a month after the very important electoral appointment at the end of December 2019, the speech that President Shavkat Mirziyoyev gave in Parliament on January 24 represented a moment of fundamental importance for the development of the country. The occasion ivas useful not only to present marginally the results achieved over the last three years, but above all to set out the key points and guidelines for the future.
free from risks for foreign investors will be the most difficult challenge and the absolute priority of the Government in the coming years. This will certainly allow the country to achieve a diversification of FDIs, now coming largely from China and Russia. To date, important reforms have been promoted to facilitate the movement of goods, capital and people, which have represented the «phase 1» of the transition process towards a new model of market economy. Now, the time has come to redouble efforts to reform the capital market, strengthen the banking system, dismantle many monopoly regimes and encourage privatisation. The management of this «phase 2» will require great clarity from the Government and the
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President in setting operational objectives, but it will be especially important to make the benefits of these reforms perceived internally (by the citizens and the whole Uzbek political world). It is not easy to do so. On the contrary, it is likely that there will be resistance to change.
Nevertheless, alongside the economic reforms, the creation of a new role for Uzbekistan, both on the domestic and international fronts, should pass through three main directives:
The promotion of a constructive dialogue with neighbouring countries, in strict compliance with international law;
The consolidation of social harmony through the fight against corruption, the reduction of poverty and the adoption of redistributive policies that allow the country to experience long-term sustainable development;
iThe massive investment in the human capital of Uzbekistan, a nation rich in young people ready to develop their qualities and skills to face the consequences of the fourth industrial revolution.
With regard to the first point, if, on the one hand, Uzbekistan's intention to increase its participation in the United Nations is to be appreciated, on the other hand it is necessary to define more precisely and punctually what the guidelines towards neighbouring countries will be. At present, this dialogue is mostly conducted in two ways: a) occasional bilateral meetings with the institutions of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan; meetings within the framework of international organizations led respectively by Russia (CIS), China (SCO) or Turkey (Turkic Council).
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Cooperation within these existing platforms could be complemented by the creation of a Forum for Dialogue and Cooperation including only the five Central Asian states, plus possibly others as observers (e.g. Iran, Afghanistan). The creation of a «Central Asian Dialogue Forum» should be promoted by Uzbekistan, and would be a useful tool to promote a more constructive discussion on a number of issues of key importance for the region. Among others:
a) The common fight against Islamic terrorism, arms and drug trafficking;
b) The common cooperation strategy to be adopted towards not only Russia, China, Turkey and the United States, which are historic partners of many Central Asian countries, but also towards the European Union, which has recently published an updated a roadmap on Central Asia;
c) The analysis of the benefits and opportunities arising from the Chinese Belt&Road Initiative, in which the Central Asian countries play the role of a link between Asia and Europe;
d) The resolution, in full compliance with international law, of latent and not fully resolved divergences and conflicts between Central Asian countries;
e) The adoption, in the most coordinated way possible, of common measures to reduce carbon emissions in Central Asia and thus comply with the terms of the Paris Agreement, which all five countries in the region have ratified.
Concerning point b), it is worth underlining that, in order for Uzbekistan to pursue a wider diversification of economic and political partners and avoid to be excessively tied to Moscow and
Journal home page:http://journal.strategy.uz
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Beijing, the relations with Europe should be strengthened and put at the centre of the country's international strategy in the coming years. Economic cooperation and political partnership with European institutions and companies is indeed fundamental: this is true especially for a country like Italy, where national
companies, highly specialized in manufacturing and machinery, can fruitfully collaborate with Uzbek players to fill in the technological gap in many industries.
With regard to the consolidation of social harmony, it seems evident the emphasis placed by the President on the need to ensure social balance in Uzbekistan to ensure that the country is able to express its best outside as well.
The first cause for undermining social
harmony is widespread corruption. In a reality that has long been characterised by a high level of corruption, especially in the public sector, the Government's efforts to ensure transparent law enforcement throughout the country must be
multiplied. However, measures such as increased anti-corruption controls and increased
penalties must be accompanied by increased awareness of this
phenomenon, which is harmful to Uzbekistan's economy and society, among all citizens. Only if every citizen perceives the seriousness of such behaviour it will be possible to combat corruption. Needless to say, for this to happen, strict application of the rule of law must be guaranteed, starting with the independence of judges and courts and full protection of human rights.
Strategy of Uzbekistan №1 (2020) / ISSN 2181-2535
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Another element that risks undermining the social stability of Uzbekistan is the persistence of poverty in various regions of the country, especially in rural areas far from large population centres. According to the Asian Development Bank, in 2018 the poverty rate in the country was slightly above 11 % of the total population: a much better result compared to 14% in 2013, but still far from the low poverty levels of a regional competitor like Kazakhstan (4.3%) To improve these figures, it will be necessary in the future to ensure fair access for all citizens to the new jobs that will be created, adjust wages to inflation, stimulate micro-
entrepreneurship in the poorest regions and offer the population minimum standards of economic, social and health care. During his speech, the President provided numerous stimuli: only in the coming months we will see whether the Government will implement what the Head of State suggested, but concrete results will be achieved in the medium to long term.
Finally, investment in human capital is closely linked to poverty reduction and the possibilities for self-realization of individuals. The fact that 2020 has been named The Year of Science, Education and Digital Economy marks very well the entity and the wide meaning of the
reforms that the Uzbek Government is willing to implement in the next years. Also in this sphere, the President's speech is full of suggestions and proposals. As mentioned by Mirziyoyev himself, the State will have to find the necessary
resources to make the Uzbek education system become a best practice at regional level, focusing on R&D, study and
management of new technologies and scientific research. This is a very difficult challenge, but necessary to provide young Uzbeks with the skills that the future world of work will require and to reduce the mismatch that could inevitably emerge between academia and business.
REFERENCE: Founded in 1965, The European House-Ambrosetti runs five representative offices in Italy and abroad. In 2019, for the sixth consecutive year, The European House - Ambrosetti was nominated - in the "Best Private Think Tanks" category - the No. 1 Think Tank in Italy, ranking in the European top ten and in the World top twenty. The Development Strategy Center and The European House -Ambrosetti signed a Memorandum of Cooperation in November, 2019.
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