CC BY
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8. Stenbrik, P. A., Livshits, V. N. (Ed.) (1981). Optimizatsiya transportnykh setey [Optimization of the transport networks]. Translated from English by Vasilyeva, Ye.M. & Kosmin. Moscow, Transport, 320.
9. Kazakov, A. L. & Maslov, A. M. (2008). Modelirovanie vkhodyashchego transportnogo potoka na gruzovuyu stantsiyu s uchyotom yego sutochnoy neravnomernosti [Modeling of the entering traffic on cargo station taking into account its daily uneven-ness]. Transport Urala [Transport of Ural], 2, 65-71.
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Information about the authors
Kazakov Aleksandr Leonidovich (Irkutsk, Russia) — Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Head of the Laboratory for the Mathematical Methods of Analysis of Properties in Dynamical Systems, the Institute for System Dynamics and Control Theory of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (134, Lermontov str., Irkutsk, 664033, Russia, e-mail: kazakov@ icc.ru).
Petrov Mikhail Borisovich (Yekaterinburg, Russia) — Doctor of Technical Science, Associate Professor, Head of the Centre, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (29, Moskovskaya str., Yekaterinburg, 620014, Russia, e-mail: michpetrov@mail.ru).
Maslov Aleksandr Mikhaylovich (Yekaterinburg, Russia) — PhD in Technical Science, Assistant, Ural State University of Railway Engineering (66, Kolmogorova str., Yekaterinburg, 620042, Russia, e-mail: maslove@yandex.ru).
UDC 338.48(045)
K. V. Osipenko
EVALUATION OF REGIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE WORLD MARKET OF TOURIST SERVICES1
The object of research is a tourist region. Theoretical and methodological basis of research is the methods of scientific cognition, statistical and mathematical analysis. The author suggests the interpretation of the mega-region, in terms of an integrated approach. Theoretical basis of territorial organization of world market of tourist services are generalized, the modern tendencies of international tourism are analyzed, evaluation of structural changes of basic indicators of development of world market of tourist services is given. The perspectives of development of regional tourist markets is marked.
The practical value of research results allows to predict the perspectives of development of the world market of tourist services in the context of regionalization. Conducted research testifies the positive dynamics of international tourism of structural changes of export of tourist services in the regions of the world (with prevailing of European and Asian — Pacific region), substantial changes in the regional structure of income as for relatively international arrival. Predictions for all of them indicate positive tendencies to the increase of international arrival.
1 © Osipenko K. V. Text. 2014.
Keywords: region, tourist region, international tourism, indicators of development of international tourist market development, regionalization, globalization.
Accession of world civilization to the epoch of globalization resulted in the noticeable increase of interest to the problems of regional development. One of the actual and priority directions of researches of the XXI century is an analysis of processes of regionalization.
Deepening of the international division of labor, internationalizations of industry and capital stipulate objective character of development of regionalization. This process is related to optimization of social — economic pattern of territories through the development of internal economic ties that develop within the framework of national economy, and expansion, as well as deepening of collaboration with regions that belong to other states [8, p.62].
Analysis of recent research papers dedicated to regionalization is determined with respect to the increased interest of researchers of this problem. Development of world tourism market and considering it as a complete system are devoted to domestic and foreign economists O. Dibrov, N. Kabushkin, V. Kvartalnova, G. Papiryana, V. Symonenka, A. Chudnovsky, O. Chablis, I. School, J. Walker. Authors propose to consider the region as a whole system, with all its elements are in close communication and interaction.
The purpose of the article. Evaluation of the regional structure, as well as forecast the development prospects of the global tourism market in the context of regionalization.
Modern scientific researches are characterized by ambiguous interpretation of concept "region", and also by absence of single theoretical — methodological tool of diagnostics of regional development. In this regard, we present a wide variety of interpretations, one of the most meaningful definition of the region of the proposed R.Shniperom's "region-it is an integral part of a unified system of productive forces and relations of production, it has forward and backward production and economic, resource, finance and credit, and social ties with the national economy" [5, p. 36].
Global processes radically change the parameters of the global economy, where "there is a growing number of international economic unions and associations on a regional basis, in which the interaction of national economies intensified. The world economy has never been notable homogeneity of the structure, its region-alization further complicates generates certain contradictions between regional and global processes" [12, p. 34].
Across the world economy region acts as a set of countries that share a common geographic location, similar natural conditions, specialization and level of development of production and non-production spheres [7, p.117]. From the point of view of the Ukrainian scientist E. V. Bulatov's [8, p.67], there is a mega-region in the world economy on the basis of deepening economic ties, development of integration cooperation in the region, as a consequence is the emergence of regional integration organizations.
Thus, the mega-region — a structural element of the global economic system, which is formed in the world economy on the basis of his fragmentation on major economic and political self-contained segments, development and expansion of closer economic ties.
Signs of the mega-region:
— the close economic, commercial, social and political ties between the entities of the region;
— a balanced and cost-effective production of goods and services, with a view to subsequent exchange with the member countries of the region;
— the possibility of continuous transportation, that is, without crossing the border region;
— common or coordinated energy, social, transport, information infrastructure;
— the probable presence of cultural similarities and historical past of the crown.
Character of modern development of the world economy under the analysis of the essence of mega-region allows to distinguish the substantial role of tourism in development of international territorial foundations. Exactly tourism occupies a leading place in stimulation of economic development and brings a substantial benefit to the regions.
Development of tourism is one of the priority directions of increase of efficiency of functioning of one or another territorial foundations. The influence of natural and social — economic factors stipulates the division of states territories into tourist regions. In connection with the above-mentioned circumstances, there is a necessity for determination of concept "tourist region" and in particular "market of tourist services".
In the universally recognized understanding of concept "tourist region" is determined as part of country, that differs from its other territories by the complex of natural and/or historical, relatively steady economical-geographic and other features that often combine with the peculiarities of national composition of population [8].
Hierarchical levels
Megalevel Macrolevel Microlevel
.....................Jr............................... i ...................i..................
- North America; - Africa; - Europe; - Asia; - Middle East - Balkan countries; - Baltic countries; - national countries Separate territorial parts are in the structure of national economies
Fig. 1. Decomposition of tourist regions (Composed on the basis of analysis of sources [7,8])
National territorial industrial complex
Microregeonal associations
— « !
S о ¡
Ol о
€ a-
S & i i
- American tourist market;
- European tourist market;
- Asian-Pacific tourist market;
- African tourist market;
- Middle East tourist market
Next interpretation of the term a "tourist region" is presented in the M. Boruschak's paper "Problems of formation of strategy of development of tourist regions". According to the author, a tourist region is the geographical territory that a guest or tourist segment chooses with the purpose of traveling. Such territory contains all building, necessary for staying, placing, feeding and organizing of leisure of tourists [6, p. 67].
Under a tourist region can be understood both large territories joining whole continents and groups of countries also and a few areas, different the features of historical development, geographical location, natural and labour resources, specialization of economy, etc. [3, p. 22]. Thus, a tourist region is this territorial association, having specific features for tourist development, the presence of object of tourist interest, and also community of climate, orography and own a certain tourist region system of settlement due to it a tourist specialization in regard to the "world" appears.
Modern configuration of geo-economic and geopolitical map of the world is formed by global, regional associations, the indications of which foresee a spatial structure [9, p. 4-15].
Spatial organization of vital functions comes as one of the orienting directions of development of the market economy. An important place in this tendency is given to the regional markets of tourist services. Tourist activity occupies a considerable place in stimulation of economic development and also brings a substantial benefit to the regions. Development of tourism is one of the priority vectors of efficiency increase of functioning
of territorial formations. It is difficult to over-estimate the role of tourist activity in realization of the modern European paradigm of social — economic development, the ultimate goal of that is an improvement of terms of vital functions of human, satisfaction of his material and spiritual necessities [2].
The modern world market of tourist services is characterized by a multilevel regional structure in which in a spatial relation it is possible to distinguish three levels: international level, macrolevel and microlevel which are presented on Figure 1.
An international level is based on expansion and deepening of microeconomic connections between tourist regions, development of integrating co-operation of countries of certain tourist region, and as a result formation of regional integration associations.
Macrolevel is formed on the basis of mutual relations between national economies or groups of countries and forms the single tourist complex of the country with its structure and management organs.
A microlevel is based on the system treaty relations, arising as a result of development of joint tourist activity, creation of separate territorial parts in the structure of national economies, etc.
Two approaches correspond to each of the presented levels: geographical and integral which are based on the presence of steady economic connections and high level of complementarity.
In this research, an author examines a geographical approach to the determination of the world market of tourist services. On the basis of
Europe s Asia and Pacific region ^ American region ss Middle East Africa
Fig. 2. Dynamics of regional structure of international tourist arrival in 1990-2012, %
the suggested approach, the analysis of basic indicators of market of tourist services was conducted.
As a branch of world economy, international tourism differs in extremely undeveloped development in the regions of the world that is explained by different levels of socio-economic development, by the peculiarities of structure of consumer demand and vital options of different social and demographic population groups and unevenness of allocation of recreational-tourist resources, multidimensional tourist politics of the individual states and international organizations. To estimate the condition of world regional market of tourist services it is necessary to investigate basic tourist indexes among which are international tourist arrival, income from a world tourist market and the share of export of every region in the world market of tourist services (fig. 2, 3, 4) [5].
Analyzing a regional structure of world tourist arrival, it should be noted that for the recent 22 years (1990-2012) international arrival changed in regional distribution. The share of the European region grew short on 8,62 % from 60,18 % in 1990 to 51,56 % in 2012. Specific weight of the American region diminished on 5,61 % in 1990 from 21,35 % to 15,74 % in 2012. The share of Asian - Pacific region in the structure of world tourist market increased on 9,72 % from 12,84 % in 1990 to 22,56 % in 2012. There is a moderate increase in share of international arrival from Middle East and African regions from 2,2 % in 1990 to 5 % in 2012 and from 3,4 % 1990 to 5,1 % in 2012 accordingly (fig. 2).
On the whole the structure of world market of tourist services in the volumes of arrival on regional belonging indicates the prevailing of share of the European and American regions. It is explained, from one side, by the presence of recreational (natural and cultural) resources, and from the other hand - by an action of development of tourists social - economic and infrastructural
factors (high middle standards of living, urbanization, developed transport network). The geographical factor that is characterized by the close location of nearby countries is also important for Europe.
The dynamics of regional structure of income of world market of tourist services in the investigated period is characterized by some clearly distinguished progress tendencies, namely:
— firstly, the share of the European region in the structure of world tourist market on the volumes of profits reduce on 12,26 % from 54,85 % in 1990 to 42,59 % in 2012, in American region on 6,67 % from 26,45 % in 1990 to 19,78 % in 2012. In spite of prevailing of traditional tourist markets, their specific weight continues to reduce. It is mostly related to reduction of international tourist arrival in a region. On the other hand, the regions with developing economy gradually continue to grow their shares.
— secondly, there is a tendency of stable increase of share of profits of Asian — Pacific region. This region in 2012 covered one third of all incomes from international tourism such as in 30,12 %. The Middle East region Near east in 2012 is characterized by the increase of index twice from 2,02 % in 1990 to 4,37 %. In African region also can be observed a specific increase almost in two times, from 1,68 % in 1990 to 3,12 % 2012. It shows that growing economies are attractive for foreign tourists as a speed-up socio-economic development of regions, strengthening of integration processes and improvement of geopolitical position (fig. 3).
On the basis of the results of the analysis presented on pic.4 there are changes in the structure of world tourist export, namely the reduction of specific weight of the European region on 25,79 % from 66,55 % in 1990 to 40,76 % in 2012. The rapid growth of share of export on 18,57 % in
2012 2011 2009 2005 2000 1990
0%
2012 2011 2009 2005 2000 1990
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
K Europe s Asia and Pacific region American region & Middle East Africa
Fig. 3. Dynamics of regional structure of income from international tourism in 1990-2012, %
1
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% is Europe ii Asia and Pacific region si American region B Middle East Africa
. 4. Dynamics of regional structure of export of tourist services in the regions of the world in 1990-2012, %
100%
the structure of world export of tourist services is observed in Asian — Pacific region from 10,43 % in 1990 to 29 % in 2012. Also the minor increase on 1,52 % is observed and in the American region from 20,25 % in 1990 to 21, 77 % in 2012.
In the structure of world market of tourist services on the volumes of export an insignificant part is occupied by the Middle East and African regions. A share of the Middle East increased on 3,1 % from 0,7 % in 1990 to 4,6 % in 2012, specific weight of the African region grew on 1,8 % to 2 % in 1990 to 3,8 % in 2012. The gradual growth of specific weight of these regions shows personal interest of international tourists, in spite of low level of life and undeveloped infrastructure .
The quantitative mark of structural changes in the dynamics of basic parameters of the development of world tourist market can be such statistical indexes, as quadratic coefficient of structural changes (1.1), that gives the average score of amount of structural changes, and also Gatyev's (1.2) coefficient, that allows to estimate the intensity of structural changes in time.
KG =
I (d - do )2
I (d2 + do2 )
(1.2)
Kd =
I (d - do )2q
IQ
(1.1)
where dt and d0 are shares of the world regions on tourist indicators that are analyzed in current and basic periods; Oj — are actual volumes of tourist indicators in a covered period.
The calculated indexes are given in the table.
The conducted calculations allow to make the following conclusions: during an analyzed period of 1990-2012 the regional structure of international tourist arrival suffered substantial changes. On the average, the structure of international arrival on the regions of the world changed on 10,43 % (in 2000-2012 — on 6,69 %, in 2005-2012 — on 3,97 %, in 2009-2012 — on 1,73 %, in 20112012 — on 0,60 %). According to Gatyev's coefficient, the regional structure of international arrival in 2005 was exposed to substantial changes. In turn, since 2005 a regional structure remains practically unchanging.
The regional structure of income, in the analyzed period, is characterized by more substantial changes as for international arrival. According to a calculation period of 1990-2012 on the average the structure of international income from tourism changed on 13,56 % (2000-2012 — on
Table
Quantitative evaluation of structural changes of basic indicators of the development of world market of tourist
services
Index 1990-2012 2000-2012 2005-2012 2009-2012
International arrival
Quadratic coefficient of structural changes 10,43 6,69 3,97 1,73
Gatyev's coefficient 0,1653 0,1083 0,0649 0,0289
Income from international tourism
Quadratic coefficient of structural changes 13,56 11,30 8,96 5,53
Gatyev's coefficient 0,2470 0,2112 0,1680 0,1054
Export of tourist services
Quadratic coefficient of structural changes 20,50 10,05 8,31 5,46
Gatyev's coefficient 0,3598 0,1964 0,1622 0,1084
1990 2000 2005 2009 2011 2012
^Europe s Asia and Pacific region £ American region SS Middle East к Africa
Fig. 5. International tourist arrival of the regions of the world in 1990-2012, millions of people [9]
11,30 %, 2005-2012 - on 8,96 %, 2009-2012 -on 5,53 %, 2011-2012 - on 1,80 %). Gatyev's coefficient testifies that the regional structure of international income till 2011 was characterized by meaningful changes.
Having calculated the regional structure of world export of tourist services, it should be noted that for investigated period the regional share of export changed on the average on 20,50 % (20002012 - on 10,05 %, 2005-2012 - on 8,31 %, 2009-2012 - on 5,46 %, 2011-2012 - on 1,85 %). According to Gatyev's coefficient the structure of export on regions till 2009 suffered considerable changes. But since 2011 a coefficient testifies about not substantial change in the regional structure of export in the world market of tourist services.
Taking into consideration the highlighted patterns that were complemented by the calculation of indexes of indicators of basic tourist indicators dynamics, it is considered a necessity to conduct the analysis of intensity of dynamics international tourist arrival that are shown on figure 5.
For determination of intensity of change of level of international tourist arrival it was calculated the index of rate of growth showing that during an analyzed period since 1990-2012 volume of
world tourist arrival annually increased on the average on a 25,11 %. Research of this index allowed to make next conclusions:
— the greatest rate of growth of volumes of international tourist arrival is typical for developing countries, and new industrial countries : Middle East ( 31,8 % or in 4,5 times), Africa ( 28,7 % or in 2,5 times), Asian-Pacific region (30 % or in 3 times), exceeding the average rates of growth of arrival (25,11 %);
— on volume of tourists arrival in other regions of the world, it should be noted gradual increase of the investigated index, but by less rapid rates. So, in the European region international tourist arrival increase on the average in 23,51 % and in the American region in 21,73 %.
All tourist mega-regions of the world are characterized by positive tendency of increase of tourist arrival. But the growth of arrival rates, and also profits from tourism in mega-regions were not identical, therefore their specific share in a world structure was exposed to the changes.
Thus, analyzing the theoretical bases of the territorial organization of the global tourism market, the author 's interpretation of the definition and its mega signs in terms of the integration approach.
In order to determine the share of each region in the structure of the global tourism market, the author analyzes the main parameters of the global tourism market, as well as quantitative assessment of structural changes on the basis of the quadratic coefficient and the coefficient of structural changes Gatev's, which allowed us to estimate the intensity of structural changes over time.
The authors identified a number of factors that may have a significant impact on the development of the world tourism market. Foremost, it is demographic changes, demand of consumer, growing awareness of objects of tourism, polarization of activity of tourist operators. Among the most characteristic tendencies of world tourism of the first decade of the XXI century it is necessary to name:
— slow rate of height;
— strengthening of competition of international regions;
— realization of growing influence of economic, socio-cultural and ecological factors on tourism;
— high degree of consumers' awareness;
— high demands to quality of tourist foods and services.
One of the most meaningful tendencies of development of world tourism is the swift strengthening of competition at the market of tourist suggestion because of appearance of growing number of countries with ambitious plans on attraction of tourists, and also supersaturating of some market segments. As a result of it, countries aspiring to save their positions carry out the strategic planning, develop principles of tourist politics and program of development of tourism, conduct active marketing work on advancement of own tourist brand, attract investment facilities in this sphere.
For the investigated period, the sphere of international tourism suffered substantial transformations. The tourist map of the world has considerably changed due to the growth of the number of countries that integrated with the world's economic and humanitarian space. As a result, these changes reflect the process of formation of a number of regional tourist markets that differ on such criteria : intensities of tourist streams, by the types of tourist services, contingent of tourists, development of tourist infrastructure, level of regulating of tourist processes.
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Information about the author
Osipenko Christina Valerievna (Mariupol, Ukraine) — Graduate Student, Assistant at the Chair of Management, Mariupol State University (129a, Stroiteley, av., Mariupol, 87550,, e-mail: mdgu_management@mail.ru).
