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3
„ Baltic Journal of Economic Studies Vol. 9 No. 3, 2023 ---
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2023-9-3-125-136
EVALUATION OF MIGRATION ATTITUDES AND EXPECTATIONS OF THE POPULATION IN THE CONTEXT OF MILITARY CONFLICT
Krystyna Kudak1, Kateryna Mashiko2, Mykhaylo Pityulych3
Abstract. The article analyses the main trends related to migration issues in Ukraine and the EU caused by the military conflict. An analysis of the theoretical basis of the research was carried out in order to determine the main aspects related to the migratory behaviour of the population in the conditions of military conflicts and crisis situations. Based on the results of a sociological study, an assessment was made of the migration attitudes and expectations of internally displaced persons (IDPs) temporarily residing in the border region of the country under martial law. An attempt was made to assess the impact of migration potential on the development of border regions under the conditions of a military crisis (using the Zakarpattia Oblast as an example). The purpose of this article is to assess the attitudes and expectations of migrants in relation to the military conflict in their country of origin. The study focuses on internally displaced persons (IDPs) living temporarily in the country's border regions, particularly in Zakarpattia Oblast. Methodology. The study is based on a sociological survey of Ukrainian migrants, such as IDPs, in new places of temporary stay in the Transcarpathian region. The survey was conducted in the first half of 2022 using the method of sociological interviews according to a random sample. The structure of the sample is 70.5% - female and 29.5% - male respondents. In addition to the sociological survey, the research is based on statistical data analysis and review of literature studies using qualitative descriptive analysis. The results of the study show significant interdependencies, disparities and trends in migration expectations and attitudes in relation to crisis, which could be the basis for further prognosis and forecasting development in the field of migration theory, such as: gender disparities in migration due to military conflicts; the importance of family ties in migration and resettlement; the predominance of the remote form of work and education, which confirms its effectiveness in crisis situations; the high inclination and desire of IDPs to return home and the low activity of IDPs in migration abroad, which is one of the main differences distinguishing IDPs from other types of migrants.
Key words: migration, military conflict, internally displaced persons (IDPs), migration attitudes and expectations, transborder region.
JEL Classification: O15, F51, J15, D84, R10
1. Introduction
The military conflict on the territory of Ukraine had a significant impact on migration processes both in Ukraine and in the EU countries. According to the director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, "From February 24 to September 19, about
8.4 million people left Ukraine. 7.2 million entered the country during this time. Currently, 1.2 million people from Ukraine are abroad." (Libanova, 2022) Since the beginning of the occupation, a significant number of refugees and IDPs have moved to safer regions of Ukraine, located in the west of the country and on the borders. One of these regions is Zakarpattia - a cross-
1 Transcarpathian Regional Center for Socio-economic and Humanitarian Studies of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine (corresponding author) E-mail: kristina.kudak@gmail.com
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5886-7139
2 Transcarpathian Regional Center for Socio-economic and Humanitarian Studies of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine
E-mail: Ekaterinna333@gmail.com
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2918-7230
3 State University "Uzhhorod National University";
Transcarpathian Regional Center for Socio-economic and Humanitarian Studies of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine E-mail: pitjuluch0311@gmail.com ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2787-0378
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 4.0
border region bordering 4 EU countries (Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Poland). There is no precise data on the number of IDPs in the region, but it is estimated to be around 410,000 (Transcarpathian Regional Military Administration, 2022, 25 August).
The purpose of the study is to assess the attitudes and expectations of migrants with regard to military conflict in their country of origin. As any phenomenon, migration can have both positive and negative consequences, therefore it is important to study the attitudes and expectations of the population, especially IDPs, towards migration in order to study its impact on socio-economic development at regional, national and international levels, as well as to develop effective measures for their adaptation and integration into new living conditions, since this problem is global in nature and will affect all spheres of socio-economic development not only in Ukraine, but also in Europe and the world.
The main research instrument of the study is a self-administered survey, which was distributed both online and on the spot using Google Form in the Zakarpattia Oblast (Ukraine) in settlements with temporary settlements of Ukrainian IDPs from March to June 2022. The survey is based on the method of sociological interviews using a stochastic sample representative of the Ukrainian population over 18 years old. The survey consists of 36 questions, including 8 questions on the demographic characteristics of the respondents and 25 closed questions. Most questions required a single answer and only 4 questions allowed multiple answers. Data were processed using MS Excel for Windows, version 17.0. Tables were presented in absolute values and percentages to provide a basis for further analysis and conclusions. The total number of respondents was 183, of whom 70.5% were female and 29.5% male. The majority of respondents (67.2%) - population between 26 and 59 years old (Table 1).
In order to assess the attitudes and expectations of IDPs towards migration, the study took the following steps:
- systematic analysis of theoretical approaches to migration attitudes and preferences, such as the study of long-term trends in refugee migration and the main areas of impact of internal migration on host countries;
- assessment of the attitudes and expectations of IDPs based on the sociological survey of Ukrainian migrants in new places of temporary stay in Zakarpattia Oblast (demographic characteristics, labour market and employment analysis, level of income, housing, entrepreneurial potential of IDPs, level of satisfaction with social services and infrastructure, etc.);
- systematisation of the main popularities and significant interdependencies in IDPs' migration expectations and attitudes in relation to the military crisis.
2. Theoretical Approaches to Analyzing Migration Attitudes and Preferences
The study of long-term trends in refugee migration (1951-2018) shows no significant growth on a global scale, but "the analysis reveals several geographical shifts in refugee migration. Refugees tend to come from a shrinking number of countries of origin and move to an increasing variety of destination countries. This trend appears to reflect a concentration of recurrent cycles of conflict in a relatively small number of countries and a parallel increase in the number of safe destinations". (Fransen, Haas, 2022). According to UNHCR, the total number of people forced to flee their homes due to conflict, violence, fear of persecution and human rights violations worldwide was 89.3 million at the end of 2021 (The UNCR Refugee Agency, 2021). The military invasion of Ukraine triggered a new wave of population displacement, and by May 2022, the UNHCR reported that the total number of people forcibly displaced exceeded 101.1 million. "It is a record that should never have been set." (The UNCR Refugee Agency, 2022)
Regardless of the existence of these two opposing and controversial ideas, the fact of a significant shift in migration trends after the start of the war in Ukraine remains undeniable. The armed aggression against Ukraine in 2014 caused the internal migration of almost 4% of the Ukrainian population. The integration of IDPs is a challenge not only for the migrants themselves, but also for the host communities and regions. The situation is particularly complicated by the fact that there have always been significant differences between the country's oblasts in terms of the level of regional development, labour market characteristics, etc. At the same time, "The
Table 1
Sample characteristics of respondents
Age groups of respondents
18-25 26-35 36-45 46-59 >59
13,1% 21,3% 21,3% 24,6% 19,7%
Household size, number of members
0 1 2 3 >4
7,7% 15,8% 22,4% 24% 30,0%
Distribution of households by number of children (less than 18 y.o.)
0 1 2 3 > 4
49,7% 30,1% 16,4% 1,6% 2,2%
Education level of respondents
Primary Secondary Post-secondary (vocational) Incomplete higher Higher
5,5% 10,4% 14,2% 11,5% 57,4%
Source: primary data 126
concentration of IDPs in several regions of Ukraine (mainly Eastern regions)... further complicates the problem of inequality of regional employment conditions, which was quite urgent before the aggression of the Russian Federation... In these conditions, access to employment and employment for IDPs remains worse than for local people, and in general, the inequality in the region deepens." (Semenenko, 2018) The problems and challenges associated with the resettlement of large numbers of people are considered in the academic literature from two angles: from the migrant's point of view and from the perspective of a particular territory (which the person is leaving or which is receiving the person).
As one of the types of migrants, IDPs are at the centre of this research. However, IDPs have certain differences from other types of migrants. While economic migrants decide to move to another country based on the relative opportunities abroad compared to at home, refugee migration - which is forced and often unexpected - is driven by different factors, such as vulnerability to persecution and access to the means of flight (Brell et al., 2020). In his study (De Jong, 2000), he concludes that "migration intentions, in turn, predicted more permanent but not temporary survival strategy migration behaviour, while low household income predicted temporary but not more permanent migration behaviour". Also according to the results of this article, "the intention-behaviour model applies to social mobility migration behaviour, but not to crisis-induced migration behaviour undertaken as part of a household survival strategy".
"Temporary migration poses unique challenges for migrants and host societies due to the particular vulnerabilities associated with temporary status." (Tazreiter, 2019) However, in the case of Ukraine, the category of "temporality" is currently ambiguous: the timing and outcome of the end of the wars is one of the main factors in the return of IDPs to their home hromadas (places of permanent residence). At the same time, the study of the impact of migration specifically on the territory of displacement of migrants "has received little attention from either academic researchers or policy makers, yet these Displacement Affected Communities (DACs) are significantly affected" (Ferris, Winthrop, 2010). However, the analysis of existing research shows that the territorial context is still present, even when the object of research is the settings, motivations or problems of migrants. In this section of the study, the generalised research findings are presented specifically in the inseparable pair "migrant-host territory/community" and their mutual influence. In particular, it is proposed to distinguish the following areas of impact of internal migration on host territories:
1. IDPs and the labor market of the host territory. When analysing this block, it should be noted firstly that, in migration studies, special attention should be paid to the object of study and the categorical apparatus, especially in order to take into account the specificity of such categories as a migrant, in particular migrant workers and internally displaced persons, among whom the majority are refugees. From the point of view of labour market analysis, there is a significant difference between refugees and labour migrants: first of all, they have much less time to make a decision about the place of resettlement, less time to prepare for life in new conditions, and therefore fewer opportunities to choose a settlement for life. As a result, as noted by (Brell et al., 2020), a situation is created in the labour market where "refugees typically arrive in a host country with less locally
applicable human capital.... and consequently are
likely to start at significantly lower levels of wages and employability" (Brell et al., 2020).
The results of (Ivlevs, Veliziotis, 2018) on the labour market behaviour of IDPs 10-15 years after displacement in former Soviet states "highlight the long-term vulnerability of the forcibly displaced in developing and transition economies... Compared to those not affected by conflict, the forcibly displaced are more likely to be long-term unemployed, suffer from crisis-related job loss and work informally, with displaced women being the most disadvantaged group" (Ivlevs, Veliziotis, 2018). At the same time, the initial socio-economic condition of the host community prior to resettlement can objectively determine the further integration vector of IDPs. Evans M. describes the rural-urban migration of IDPs caused by the Casamance conflict in Senegal: "The sudden, large-scale, unplanned movement of people into Ziguinchor, coupled with the poor economic condition of the region, has stretched normal socioeconomic structures beyond their capacity to provide adequate and reasonably remunerative employment in urban sectors. Instead, IDPs are trapped in poorly paid and precarious semi-skilled or unskilled work." (Evans, 2007) However, some analytical results show that while IDPs are more likely to be unemployed and involved in the informal economy than other populations (including voluntary migrants), in particular "the probability of formal sector employment for IDPs decreases over time" (Aysa-Lastra, 2011).
2. IDPs and opportunities to accumulate assets in the new territory. When a person's property and accumulated assets are destroyed during hostilities, there are fewer "threads" connecting them to their home territory. From the perspective of the host community, this does not always mean that the demand for assets of the displaced will increase. Demand growth depends on the amount of savings available, access to them and the ability to generate
new income. From the perspective of IDPs, access to the labour market and resettlement in areas where there is a greater likelihood of finding employment is particularly important. The example of IDPs during the military conflicts in Georgia shows that the resettlement policy provided for the provision of housing in rural areas, but did not take into account an aspect such as access to the labour market. There is little room in rural areas for people who have always lived in the city, have an urban lifestyle, and have experience of employment and income generation in the city (Kurshitashvili, 2012). On the contrary, migrants from villages that were agricultural but lost their land have difficulty finding work in non-agricultural sectors, which reduces their opportunities to purchase housing and accumulate further assets (Kirchhoff, & Ibanez, 2002). Research on refugee migrants to other countries shows that those refugees who do find work experience much lower wages than other migrants; again, the gap narrows but does not close during the first decade (Brell et al. 2020).
3. IDPs and expectations of external (including financial) assistance. Sources of external support and the nature of this support can vary: support from relatives already living in a particular area (providing their own accommodation, finding accommodation on preferential terms); support from international agencies and foundations, local public organisations, individual politicians, authorities and self-government in the form of goods (provision of food, clothing, personal hygiene products, medicines, sleeping bags and school supplies for children) as well as cash assistance (Piotrowicz, 2018; Evans, 2007).
4. IDPs and changes in cash flows of the host territory. The migrant's choice of permanent or temporary status will affect the intensity of consumption and the increase in consumer demand relative to that of the local population. If migrant workers focus on accumulating capital and then returning home, they work a lot and spend little in the area where they work, sending most of their income home. If they change their orientation to stay in the area to which they have moved, they save less money, spend fewer hours at work and spend more money on current consumption (Tsuda, 1999). Migrants have different motives for sending remittances, and remittance recipients have different demands on migrants' income, depending on whether the migration is temporary or permanent (Glytsos, 1997) provide empirical support for this hypothesis. For example, if a person with a temporary migration orientation has close relatives in the home country (territory), then migrant remittances would be significant and obligatory. If a person with a permanent migration orientation has distant relatives in the home country (territory), then migrant remittances would be insignificant and voluntary
(in effect, "gifts") (Glytsos, 1997). This means that the amount and regularity of payments are related not only to the motives for migration and expectations of return, but also to whether there are relatives in the home areas and a connection to them. At the level of the host region, IDP attitudes affect the level of financial outflows from the region.
5. IDPs and social capital of an individual and the territory as a whole. Different types of separation of migrants can be distinguished: physical, cultural and emotional. The last two types, "although more difficult to detect, define and quantify, are important aspects of migrants' responses and actions in a new society." (Tazreiter, 2019) Research (Tsuda, 1999) has shown that as migrants begin to focus on long-term residence in the host society, their attitudes towards social ties change. "They begin to lead more socially fulfilling lives and develop stronger ties with the host society." (Tsuda, 1999) As their sense of social engagement and attachment grows, they become socially embedded in the host society. At the same time, as the experience of those displaced by the war in Sri Lanka shows, IDP status does not always contribute to integration, but on the contrary creates "physical and social segregation" associated with the undefined time frame for assigning people to the IDP category (Brun, 2003). In the described case, one can observe the attitude of the host community towards IDPs. In the study by (Card et al., 2005), the authors show that "there is considerable heterogeneity in overall attitudes to immigration across countries and, at the same time, large differences in attitudes within countries along dimensions such as age and education".
6. IDPs and access to social services. Access to educational services for IDPs is usually an issue for children and young people (Ferris, Winthrop, 2010). The following barriers to access to education for IDPs living in communities (rather than camps) are identified in the literature: children may need to work to earn money; they may need to care for siblings so that the mother can work; school fees may make education financially unaffordable for displaced children; children have usually lost time in school and may find it difficult to catch up or may be embarrassed to be much older than other students in their class; stigma or discrimination; parents' concerns about the safety of children attending school in unfamiliar surroundings; governments of host countries may not allow refugees to attend public schools, especially beyond primary education; urban areas are less prepared to deal with the additional influx of students, particularly in education systems that may already be overstretched and suffering from lack of space and poor infrastructure; higher education, where many governments prohibit refugees from attending national universities, although trends may be
slowly changing (Ferris, Winthrop, 2010; Women's Commission for Refugee, 2004; The UNHCR Refugee agency, 2010). Sometimes the UN Refugee Agency is forced to choose between providing health care or education. Sometimes this is because donor agencies do not see education as "life-saving" and are restricted in their mandates from supporting education (Ferris, Winthrop, 2010).
7. IDPs and political life in the territory of temporary residence. According to the authors, a number of individual cases can be highlighted in this block: the participation of migrants in political life, the prevention of discrimination against the right to vote of internally displaced persons, and campaigns based on the migration factor. According to the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement, IDPs "have the right to vote and to participate in government and public affairs" (Deng, 1999). However, in practice, IDPs' voting rights are often discriminated against. "In countries from Georgia to Sri Lanka to Nepal, national authorities have amended electoral legislation that specifically discriminated against IDP voting rights." (Grace, Fischer, 2008) A separate block of research findings focuses on the study of migration attitudes and preferences from the perspective of "electoral politics" and the potential votes of voters. In EU countries, such studies are often linked to campaigning and electoral support for migration policies, including in the context of terrorist threats. For example, (Bohmelt et al., 2020) note that "public opinion and political leaders in Europe, including in countries that have not been targeted by terrorists, often link the issue of terrorism with migration". In their article (Facchini, Mayda, 2008), the authors examine theoretical and empirical aspects of individual attitudes towards migrants and migration policy outcomes, analysing patterns of public opinion in favour of migration. The authors find that "across countries of different income levels, only a small minority of voters favour more open migration policies".
8. IDPs and psychological aspects. According to the study (Shevlin et al., 2017), post-traumatic stress disorder was diagnosed in 21-27% (depending on the method used) of adult IDPs who migrated during the first Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014. The example of IDPs in Colombia who were victims of violence shows that psychological trauma can lead to a "behavioural poverty trap", in which "the experience of violence leads victims to believe that they are more likely to live in extreme poverty". According to (Moya, Carter, 2019), at the same time, from the point of view of migrant psychology and from the experience of communication with migrants and IDPs, new opportunities for self-realisation open up for many refugees, internal reserves for self-
development are used, which are activated in situations of crisis and shock force majeure.
3. Assessment of IDPs' Attitudes and Expectations
This section of the article presents an analysis of the results of the sociological survey of IDPs in the Zakarpattia Oblast. It characterises the respondents' attitudes towards forced migration and can serve as a basis for further analysis and forecasting of their migration expectations. The analysis was partially based on a comparative assessment of the results of the sociological survey conducted by the authors with two large-scale surveys of IDPs in Ukraine and an international survey of migrants in European countries. The survey data differ in terms of the number of respondents and the geography of the samples, but they can to some extent reflect the main trends in the characteristics of IDPs and their attitudes to migration in wartime (Table 2).
According to the results of the RIWI survey, "the percentage of IDPs is lower among respondents aged 55 and over - 20.7%... this does not mean that older respondents are less affected by the current conflict: rather, it points to particular obstacles to movement for older Ukrainians, who are likely to face increased protection risks in their areas of origin" (IDMC, 2022). According to the results, the proportion of IDPs aged 59 and over is the same, at almost 19.7%. The findings also demonstrate the dominance of women among IDPs, who account for almost 70.7% of respondents. On the one hand, "this reflects attempts to restrict men's freedom of movement... most recently, on 5 July, those liable for military service were ordered to remain in their home districts" (IDMC, 2022). Among the women interviewed, the percentage of those whose husbands stayed at home or joined the army is 33.8%. In other words, this situation can generally be explained by the greater psychological endurance of men compared to women, their desire to stay at home to defend their own property and territory, and the greater tendency of women to accompany their children during displacement.
Further analysis of the demographic characteristics of the respondents revealed that more than half of the respondents were married at the time of the survey (60.1%, of whom 3.3% were in an unregistered marriage); 21.3% had never been married; 10.9% were divorced; 7.6% were widows/widowers, of whom 0.5% reported being widowed as a result of hostilities. To the question "Where is your husband/wife at the moment?" 50.4% of respondents answered "with me", 27% - at their permanent place of residence, 9.6% -in the Armed Forces (territorial defence), 7% -elsewhere in Ukraine and 6.1% - abroad.
Table 2
Comparative characteristics of migration trends of IDPs in Ukraine (based on the results of various sociological studies)
SURVEY RIWI'S INNOVATIVE METHODOLOGY (IDMC, 2022) GRADUS RESEARCH GROUP (GRADUS, 2022) IOM MIGRATION DISPLACEMENT TRACKING MATRIX (IOM, 2022)
Timing April and early July, 2022 The 20 of May - the 1 August, 2022 (6 stages) 16 of March-23 July, 2022 (7 rounds)
Method online survey self-filling of questionnaires in Gradus mobile application a phone express survey conducted by MultiCultural Insights
The number of respondents over 8000 survey responses (IDPs) 12 164 people (IDPs) Over 2000 people (IDPs) in each round
The results obtained - More than 32% of respondents were displaced; - almost half of the displaced respondents were staying with host families; - more than 60% of IDP respondents had difficulty accessing basic goods and services; and - two-thirds of displaced respondents plan to stay in Ukraine; - a fifth of non-displaced respondents expected to have to flee within a month. - Migration trends have stabilised and have shown virtually no dynamism since May, but people are ready to change their place of residence if the situation deteriorates further; - the main needs of respondents were related to financial problems and unemployment; - more than half of respondents report problems with physical/mental health, feelings of fear and danger; - most respondents continue to live at home or with relatives/friends. - 64% of respondents are women; - 68% of respondents plan to return home; - 70% of IDPs are in the place where they were first displaced; - 60% of IDPs lost their jobs due to the war, 28% of respondents were able to find a job in a new location; - 71% of IDPs need financial assistance; - 10% of IDPs reported that their house was damaged as a result of the war; - 28% of IDPs reported lack of access to medicines and medical services.
Source: (IDMC, 2022), (GRADUS, 2022), (IOM, 2022)
Further analysis showed that 49.7% of the interviewed IDPs in Zakarpattia Oblast lived in households with children before the war, and all of them moved with their children when they migrated. 1/3 of the IDP families moved with 2 persons (29.5%), 29.5% -3 adults, 13.1% - 4 adults, while 18.6% of the IDPs are currently alone without their family members. Due to RIWI's methodology, "the percentage of displaced respondents cannot be used to estimate the total number of IDPs in Ukraine, as many respondents may have subsequently returned to their homes. Nor can it be used to calculate the total number of displacements or movements, as there is no way of knowing how many times respondents have been displaced" (IDMC, 2022). In order to make some assumptions about the expected number of IDPs in the short term, respondents were asked the question "Do you expect other members of your family to join you later?" and the responses were distributed as follows: more than half of the IDPs interviewed (53%) gave a negative answer, while the rest of the respondents indicated that they had moved with their family or that some family members planned to join them after some time. This again confirms the importance of family and family ties in the decision to migrate.
During the sociological survey of the IDPs, the main aim was to determine the conditions under which the population was forced to leave their homes, the motives for moving to the Zakarpattia Oblast in particular, and their willingness, desire and attitude
to registering their IDP status. Responses to the question "Did you have the opportunity to prepare properly for the move?" were fairly evenly distributed, with 36.1% of respondents saying that they had time to take only the most important things (documents, warm clothes, etc.), 29% having some time to prepare but not enough time to gather the necessary things, and 12.6% having enough time to gather. Only 22.4% said they had gathered the necessary things and were ready to move.
When asked "Why did you choose Zakarpattia Oblast to move to?" almost half of respondents (44.8%) replied that they moved to join relatives and friends, which to some extent confirms the importance of family and other ties in migration (Figure 1).
As can be seen from the graph, only 6% of respondents indicated their subjective attitude to the choice of the place of relocation, noting that they like this particular region and are attracted by the possibility of living in Transcarpathia. Despite the geographical location of the Zakarpattia Oblast, which increases the level of security in its territory, only 4.4% of respondents stated that Zakarpattia is "the first safe region on their way", which characterises the uncertainty of the population about the safety of living in any corner of the country under the conditions of a military conflict.
During the survey, it was important to determine what proportion of migrants who moved to Zakarpattia obtained IDP status in a new place: the answers of the respondents were distributed as follows:
Figure 1. Main reasons for IDPs to move to
Source: primary data
74.9% obtained this status, 21.4% gave a negative answer and do not plan to apply for protection and apply for a new status, 3.8% hesitate to apply for IDP status. This situation reflects the ambivalent attitude of the population towards this status and the reluctance to seek support from the state, and in some cases the lack of need for additional help and resources. At the same time, it should be noted that the amount of monetary and other types of assistance is currently insignificant (about 54 EUR/month for able-bodied persons who have reached the age of 18; 81 EUR/month for each child and person with a disability) (Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine, n. d.), and for a certain part of the population there is no need to register this status (for comparison, the living wage for able-bodied persons aged 18 and over is approximately 70 EUR/month, and the level of the minimum wage - 176 EUR/month) (About the State Budget of Ukraine, 2022). There is also an opinion that men do not apply for IDP status because they have to register for military service at the place of registration. However, the results of the survey do not support this hypothesis, as there are almost equal proportions of men and women who do not intend to register their status.
As part of the further analysis, it was important to establish the conditions in which IDPs were currently living and whether they and their families were being provided with accommodation. In response to the question "Where do you currently live?" 38.3% replied "in free accommodation", 34.4% - "with relatives and friends", 19.1% - "in rented accommodation", 4.9% - "free with the families of local volunteers".
At the same time, in order to assess the future plans of IDPs regarding the possibility of returning home, it was important to obtain information on the availability of housing for IDPs in the city of their
the transborder region, %
permanent residence and its condition after the invasion. In response to the question "What is the current condition of the dwelling you lived in before the relocation?", more than half of the respondents (62.8%) indicated that their own dwelling was "intact", 18% - "damaged", 4.9% - "ruined". At the same time, 14.2% of respondents do not know the condition of their homes. The condition of the property is one of the key factors that can influence IDPs' future plans to return home. Apart from this, the most important factor influencing the population's migratory behaviour and decision to return is the further escalation/end of the conflict. Accordingly, when asked "Do you plan to return to your place of permanent residence?", the majority of respondents (73.2%) replied in the affirmative, "yes, we do", of whom 36.1% indicated that they planned to return in the near future, and 37.1% - only after the end of the war. 4.4% of respondents gave a negative answer to this question, while 10.4% of respondents found it difficult to decide on an answer. For the majority of respondents, the decisive factor for returning to their place of permanent residence is the end of the war (60.1%), the availability of their own housing (25.1%), the absence of financial difficulties (15.8%), the possibility of employment (9.8%), the possibility of access to social services (6%) (Figure 2).
Further analysis and study of respondents' opinions regarding their intentions and plans for the future revealed that most of the IDPs interviewed do not intend to change their country of residence. In this research, the responses to the question "Do you plan to go abroad?" 84.7% replied that they had "no such plans" in the near future, while 15.3% of IDPs responded positively to this question, adding that they planned to go abroad for permanent residence. Lack of security in their own country was cited by more than half of respondents as the main reason for
Figure 2. The most important factors of IDPs' return to their place ofpermanent residence, %
Source: primary data
Access to social services ■ 6%
Employment opportunity 9,8%
No financial difficulties 15,8%
Own housing 25,1%
The end of the war 60,1%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
migrating (59.4%). 21.9% of the interviewed IDPs plan to leave the country at the invitation of relatives from abroad, which once again confirms the importance of family ties in the decision to migrate, 15.6% are encouraged and supported to leave by relatives from Ukraine, 15.6% are leaving the country due to the lack of opportunities to find accommodation in the country of residence. 12.5% of the interviewed IDPs stated that they currently see no prospects for themselves and their families to continue living in Ukraine.
Comparing the data with the results of (GRADUS, 2022): "At the beginning of August 2022, about 23% of the migrants surveyed who are currently living abroad want to stay there, and 60% have such an opportunity but are undecided at the moment." By way of comparison, the survey of IDPs in Zakarpattia revealed that only 11% of respondents
said they wanted to stay in their new place of residence, while almost half (44%) said they had no such option. Accordingly, it can be assumed that the level of income and/or savings of people who have left the country is higher than that of IDPs, and that foreign migrants see more prospects for life abroad than IDPs who remain in their own country. The results of the study show that among the respondents who intend to migrate abroad in the future, half of the IDPs surveyed (56.7%) indicated that they plan to migrate to EU countries for permanent residence, 6.7% - to the UK, 3.3% - to Canada and the USA, 23.3% of respondents did not specify a country, while 10% of respondents are currently undecided about their destination country.
As part of further research, respondents' answers were analysed with regard to employment and labour market status (Figure 3).
Figure 3. Breakdown of answers to the question "Can you determine your status in the labor market before and after moving?", %
Source: primary data
Further analysis revealed that 29.5% of respondents were working remotely in their previous location. Only 3.8% of respondents were able to find a job in their field in the new location and the remaining 3.8% said they were currently working outside their field in a less prestigious job.
The analysis conducted showed that as a result of the impact of the military conflict, the number of employed IDPs surveyed decreased by 19.3%, while the number of unemployed increased by 16.1%. By comparison, according to the Gradus Research methodology, "38% of respondents were unemployed and 35% cited the war as the main reason for unemployment". According to the study, the number of economically inactive people did not change significantly during the period analysed.
The analysis of the sphere of employment of the IDPs before their displacement revealed that the majority of the respondents were employed in the service sector (21.6%), which is a fairly common type of employment, so it can be assumed that this group of respondents will not have significant difficulties in finding a job in the analysed area.
13.3% of the respondents were employed in the field of science and education, which belongs mainly to the state sector of the economy, and the possibility of creating new jobs in the analysed field under martial law is limited. However, taking into account the essential need to provide educational services to IDP children, a deeper analysis may reveal the need to create an adequate number of new jobs in the private sector of the education sector. A similar situation can be observed in the field of health care: the results of the survey showed that 4% of the IDPs worked in medical institutions before their displacement, and with the arrival of a significant number of IDPs, the need to provide medical services to this category of people will definitely increase at the regional level. The experience of private medical institutions in Zakarpattia Oblast under martial law shows that they actively recruit doctors from among the IDPs. In addition, private medical facilities and the territory of the area are being relocated.
Further analysis revealed that 8% of IDPs were employed in the industrial sector of the economy prior to resettlement, but we did not receive data on specific sectors of industry, which may differ significantly from those in Zakarpattia Oblast (e.g., heavy and extractive industries, which dominate in the eastern regions of Ukraine, as opposed to employment in light and food industries, which are typical of Zakarpattia). Only 2.3% of the IDPs surveyed were employed in the agricultural sector prior to displacement, and given that more than 90% of settlements in the region are rural, where employment is dominated by the agricultural sector of the
economy, and that the proportion of IDPs currently living temporarily in rural areas of the region is more than 50%, only a small proportion of IDPs will be able to find employment in their specialty. This situation requires, on the one hand, the creation of new jobs for IDPs in non-agricultural sectors and, on the other hand, the retraining of IDPs with the possibility of continued employment in the agricultural sector and in rural areas.
In the further analysis of the situation on the labour market, it was important to determine the level of income of IDPs and the possibility of meeting basic needs in the current conditions. According to the Gradus Research methodology, at the beginning of August 2022, "56% of respondents had a job, of which more than half of respondents received a salary. 74% of the respondents pointed to a decrease in the level of income in connection with the military actions". According to this research and analysis of respondents' income, 71.6% of the IDPs surveyed currently have a source of income. The answers to the question "From what sources do you receive your income?" were distributed as follows: 36.1% of respondents stated that their main source of income was their salary, 29.5% - state support for IDPs, 18.6% - a retirement pension, 12% - financial support from relatives, 9.8% - humanitarian aid. 6.6% do not have a stable income. To the question "Do you have any savings? 43.2% of the IDPs interviewed replied in the affirmative, 34.4% stated that they had already spent all their savings, of which 6% had spent all their savings in the process of moving to a new place. 18.6% said they had no savings at all. When asked "How long do you think your savings will last?", more than half of respondents (55.2%) said that their savings would last for three months at the most, 19% for six months and only 12.1% for 12 months or more.
Such a situation demonstrates that a significant proportion of IDPs require additional assistance to meet their basic needs and ensure a decent standard of living. In particular, according to the GRADUS survey, the majority of respondents (67%) identified money as the most important current need, followed by access to work (37%), a safe place to live (27%) and food (23%). According to the results of the study, similar results were obtained: half of the respondents (49.5%) indicated the need for financial assistance, 19% - assistance in employment, 18.5% - additional provision of medical services, 13.6% - clothing, food products and household items, 11.4% - assistance in affordable housing. At the same time, 28.3% of respondents said they did not need any help.
Studies of respondents' opinions on their satisfaction with the level of social infrastructure, social security and living conditions in their current place of residence showed that the majority of IDP respondents assessed positively the level of social services provided
in their places of temporary residence (75%). Among the main shortcomings, respondents mentioned the lack of sports infrastructure facilities (19%), cultural and artistic facilities (11.4%) and educational facilities (5.4%). According to the results of the analysis, about 60% of the respondents' children are currently studying in educational institutions located in the territory of their former place of residence, and only 8.4% - in local educational institutions. At the same time, 10.5% of respondents indicated that their children do not currently have the opportunity to study in local educational institutions, which requires increased attention from local and regional authorities to the issue of providing adequate conditions for the education of IDP children. On the other hand, the form of distance education, which was introduced in educational institutions, especially in schools, even during the period of quarantine restrictions of COVID-19, justifies itself in other crisis conditions, particularly in the conditions of martial law, and remains an alternative form of education.
4. Conclusions
The review of theoretical approaches to the study of the issue of IDPs in the context of the "migranthosting territory" and the analysis of the results of a sociological survey of IDPs made it possible to obtain the following scientific results and to identify the significant interdependencies, disparities and trends in the expectations and attitudes of IDPs towards migration in relation to the crisis, such as:
- gender disparities in migration due to military conflicts, including in the relocation of IDPs (predominance of women IDPs over men (70.7%);
- IDP families mostly migrate and relocate with children, while the proportion of people of retirement age is insignificant (19.7%);
- the study confirms the importance of family ties in migration and relocation (44.8% of IDPs moved to relatives and friends, 34.4% are currently living
References:
with relatives, 21.9% of IDPs intend to go abroad at the invitation of relatives);
- the results of the assessment of IDPs' migration expectations confirm the high inclination and desire of IDPs to return home (73.2% of IDPs) and the low activity of IDPs in migrating abroad (84.7% of IDPs do not intend to migrate abroad), which is one of the main differences distinguishing IDPs from other types of migrants;
- for the vast majority of IDPs, the main problem is housing, as only a small proportion of IDPs (19.1%) have the means to provide their own housing;
- despite having a source of income (71.6% of respondents) and savings (43.2%), almost half of IDPs need additional financial support (49.5%);
- the effectiveness of remote work and education in crisis situations (29.5% of IDPs are working remotely at their previous place of work, especially employees in the IT sector, education, etc., and about 60% of respondents indicated that their children are currently studying remotely);
- the increase in unemployment among IDPs (according to the survey - by 16.1%) and the low probability of finding a job in their field of specialisation in their new place of residence (only 3.8% of IDPs were able to find a job in their field of specialisation).
Prospects for further research. The results of the study show some significant interdependencies, disparities and trends in expectations and attitudes towards migration in the context of the crisis, which could be the basis for further prognosis and forecasting development in the field of migration theory. Under different scenarios of the unfolding of events under the conditions of a military invasion, it is possible to consider different approaches to solving current problems and issues related to the migration and displacement of IDPs, their integration into new living conditions and their influence on the development of the host territory, which is a complex process that requires the equal involvement of migrants, such as IDPs, and host communities.
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Received on: 26th ofJune, 2023 Accepted on: 03 th of August, 2023 Published on: 25 th of August, 2023
