ЕСТЬ ЛИ В НОРВЕГИИ ГОЛЛАНДСКАЯ БОЛЕЗНЬ? Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

трудов.Саратов.2013, - С. 204.

УДК 519.862

Ковальчук Е. С. студент магистратуры 1 курса Международный Финансовый факультет Финансовый Университет при правительстве РФ

Трегуб И.В.

научный руководитель, старший преподаватель

Россия, г. Москва Kovalchuk E.S., 1 course magister student International Financial Faculty Finance University under the government of Russian Federation

Russia, Moscow Academic adviser: Tregub I.V.

ЕСТЬ ЛИ В НОРВЕГИИ ГОЛЛАНДСКАЯ БОЛЕЗНЬ?

Аннотация

Во многих странах, нефтяные и газовые ресурсы оказались вредными для экономического развития. Норвегия часто представляется как богатая природными ресурсами экономика, которая избегала симптомы голландской болезни. В статье анализируются основные особенности норвежской нефтяной промышленности.

Ключевые слова

ВВП, экономическая модель, «голландская болезнь», Норвегия, нефтяная промышленность, модернизация добычи нефти

DOES NORWAY STRUGGLES DUTCH DESEASE?

Abstract

In many countries, oil and gas resources have proved detrimental to economic development. Norway is often presented as a resource-abundant economy which has avoided symptoms of resource curse, such as Dutch disease. This paper analyzes the key features of the Norwegian oil industry.

Key words:

GDP, Economic model, "Dutch disease", Norway, Oil industry, Modernization of oil production

Summary

The Norwegian experience is considered to exhibit successful management of raw materials, specifically oil and gas. In this paper we analyze the economic situation especially oil sector. After reading this work, you can find information concerning the dependence of GDP and macroeconomic indicators, such as national income, exchange rate of national currency per US$, exports and import of fuel. All the analysis were made with the help of two-stage least square method

in EViews program. Data was collected since 1994 till 2014 from World Bank.81 This is a practical example of mathematical and computer modeling based on the real data. This model contains mathematical representation of the system according to the formulation of problem, methods of constructing the model, computer implementation process modeling and analysis of results. As the result you would find that the model considered through this paper successfully passed tests and is suitable for the chosen country.

Dutch Disease. Did Norway escape the curse?

Economic model of Norway consist of investing large part of the revenue from the oil industry to the fund, the amount of which has reached $810 billion, rather than spending on public expenditure. Thus, the country cares about the welfare of future generations. Each year Norway uses only 4% of the fund's assets to budget spending.

Nevertheless, Norway has alarms, because both in the near future and in the long term. Despite all attempts by the authorities to isolate the economy from the oil sector, many economists believe that it is increasingly dependent on it. "We see that business cycles are synchronized with oil", - says Hilde Bornland Professor BI of Norwegian Business School. 82

Perhaps it is not so bad, but there are long-term problems. One of them is the plight of the non-oil industries Norway. The economy consists of two parts, moving at different speeds, said Professor Bornland. With this agrees Kristin Skogen Lund: "Our economy is divided into two parts. There is a large concentration of investments in the oil sector, and failure in the other. " 83

In this work there is analysis of the economic model which describes how GDP during the "Dutch disease" is affected by national income, exchange rate of national currency per US$, exports and import of fuel. There are 4 exogenous (independent) variables in the model: export and import, exchange rate, and oil rents; and 2 endogenous (dependent) variables - GDP and national income. The specification of the model is the following:84

Y = C(l) + C(2) * XI + C(3) * X2 + C(4) * X3 XI = C(5) + C(6) * Y + c(7) * X4 + c(8) * X5 Where Y - GDP, X1 - National income, X2 - Oil rents, X3 - Exchange rate (LCU per US$), X4 - Export, X5 - Imports. According to calculations we obtain the following result:

System: NORWAY

81 The World Bank / Data Bank http://data.worldbank.org/country/norway?view=chart

82 1.Bj0rnland, H. C., & Thorsrud, L. A. (2014). What is the effect of an oil price decrease on the Norwegian economy ? 1-21.

84 1.Stock, J.H. og Watson, M.W. (2007). Introduction to Econometrics, 2nd ed. Boston: Pearson Education Inc.

Estimation Method: Two-Stage Least Squares

Sample: 1994 2014

Included observations: 16

Total system (balanced) observations 32

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C( 1) 26.65542 34.77218 0.766573 0.4508

C(2) 1.266278 0.032381 39.10585 0.0000

C(3) 4.178267 1.378943 3.030052 0.0058

C(4) -5.059320 4.451892 -1.136442 0.2670

C(5) -40.43477 137.5883 -0.293882 0.7714

C(6) -0.668294 8.770035 -0.076202 0.9399

C(7) -0.079635 5.479672 -0.014533 0.9885

C(8) 5.331613 23.73965 0.224587 0.8242

Determinant residual covariance 22493.96

Equation: Y=C(1)+C(2)*X1+ C(3)*X2+C(4)*X3

Instruments: X2 X3 X4 X5 C

Observations: 16

R-squared 0.996294 Mean dependent var 307.3923

Adjusted R-squared 0.995367 S.D. dependent var 165.4499

S.E. of regression 11.26111 Sum squared resid 1521.752

Durbin-Watson stat 1.110500

Equation: X1=C(5)+C(6)*Y+C(7)*X4+C(8)*X5

Instruments: X2 X3 X4 X5 C

Observations: 16

R-squared 0.981092 Mean dependent var 227.5520

Adjusted R-squared 0.976364 S.D. dependent var 126.1735

S.E. of regression 19.39774 Sum squared resid 4515.268

Durbin-Watson stat 1.742053

As we it seen from the graph value of the multiple coefficient of determination RA2=0,99 shows that 99 % of total deviation of GDP is explained by the variation of national income, oil rents. Such a high value of the RA2 is quite good it is close to 1 (maximumRA2=1). This means that selected factors influence the given model significantly. F-test and DW test were passed successfully and

this means that no autocorrelation detected.85

References:

1. Bj0rnland, H. C., & Thorsrud, L. A. (2013). Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy, (6). Retrieved from http://ideas.repec.org/p/bny/wpaper/0015.html

2. Bj0rnland, H. C., & Thorsrud, L. A. (2014). What is the effect of an oil price decrease on the Norwegian economy ? 1-21.

3. I.V.Tregub. Mathematical models of economic systems dynamics: Monography. M.: Finance Academy, 2009. 120 p.

4. OECD (2008). National Accounts database. Available at: www.esds.ac.uk international/support/user_guides/oecd/na.asp

5. Plasschaert, R. (2009). "The Dutch Disease." Tijdschrift Voor Diergeneeskunde, 134(1984), 168; author reply 168-169.

УДК 657.22

Колобаева О.Б. студент бакалавриата Департамент учета, анализа и аудита Миславская Н.А., д.э.н. научный руководитель, профессор Департамент учета, анализа и аудита ФГОБУВО «Финансовый университет при Правительстве

Российской Федерации» Финуниверситет, Financial University

Россия, г. Москва ЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКИЙ УЧЕТ: ОРГАНИЗАЦИЯ И МЕТОДИКА

ВЕДЕНИЯ

Аннотация

При выполнении требований экологической безопасности у организаций возникает трудности учета природоохранных мероприятий и представления информации о них в бухгалтерской (финансовой) отчетности и обусловливает необходимость преобразований в системе бухгалтерского экологического учета и его нормативно-правовом регулировании.

Ключевые слова: законодательство, организация, экологическая политика, экологический учет.

Экологические проблемы организаций влияют на их деятельность, финансовое состояние, возможность работы в будущем. В современных экономических условиях и в связи с использованием МСФО им необходимо разрабатывать экологическую политику и план ее реализации.

Экологический аспект хозяйствования реализуется при отсутствии

85 i.I.V.Tregub. Mathematical models of economic systems dynamics: Monography. M.: Finance Academy, 2009. 120 p.