CC BY
102
Вестник университета № 6, 2019
УДК 338.001.3б: 332.143
JEL L16; O33
DOI 10.26425/1816-4277-2019-6-124-133
Терелянский Павел Васильевич
д-р экон. наук, канд. технич. наук, ФГБОУ ВО «Государственный университет управления», г Москва, Российская Федерация e-mail: [email protected]
ЦИФРОВАЯ ТРАНСФОРМАЦИЯ ЭКСПОРТНО-ОРИЕНТИРОВАННОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ РОССИИ
Аннотация. Исследованы данные статистики по объему реализации продукции четырехсот ведущих российских компаний, консолидированные медиахолдингами «Эксперт» и «РосБизнесКонсалтинг». Процесс трансформации экспортно-ориентированной экономики России в цифровую предложено косвенно оценить по объему реализации ведущих отечественных компаний. Сделано предположение, что повышение доли объема реализации ТТ-ориентированных производств в совокупном объеме ведущих отечественных компаний отражают процесс цифровизации экономики. Результаты исследования показывают, что 31,8 % от общего объема реализации десяти крупнейших компаний России можно отнести к сфере цифровой экономики, что позволяет заявить об устойчивом движении в сторону трансформации экономики, основой которой являются процессы, связанные с созданием, преобразованием, передачей и хранением нематериальных цифровых сущностей. Ключевые слова: цифровая экономика, цифровая трансформация, статистические исследования, объем реализации, макроэкономические агенты, выручка, прибыль.
Цитирование: Терелянский П.В. Цифровая трансформация экспортно-ориентированной экономики России//Вестник университета. 2019. № 6. С. 124-133.
Tereliansky Pavel
Doctor of Economic Sciences, Candidate of Technical Sciences, State University of Management, Moscow, Russia e-mail: [email protected]
DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION OF EXPORT-ORIENTED ECONOMY OF RUSSIA
Abstract. The subject of the study of this article are the statistics on the volume of sales of four hundred leading Russian companies, consolidated by media holdings «Expert» and «RosBusinessConsulting». The process of transformation of the export-oriented economy of Russia into a digital economy is proposed to indirectly assess the volume of sales of leading domestic companies. The author supposes, that the increase in the share of sales of IT-oriented industries in the total volume of leading domestic companies reflect the process of digitalization of the economy. The results of the study show that 31,8 % of the total sales of the 10 largest companies in Russia can be attributed to the digital economy, which allows us to declare a steady movement towards the transformation of the economy, which is based on the processes associated with the creation, transformation, transfer and storage of intangible digital entities. Key words: digital economy, digital transformation, statistical studies, sales volume, macroeconomic agents, revenue, profit.
For citation: Terelyanskii P.V. Digital transformation of export-oriented economy of Russia (2019) Vestnik universiteta, I. 6, pp. 124-133. doi: 10.26425/1816-4277-2019-6-124-133
Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 9, 2017 No. 203, approved the "Strategy of information society development in the Russian Federation for the years 2017-2030" [1]. In accordance with this program, by the government order, was approved the program "Digital economy of the Russian Federation" (№ 1632-R of July 28, 2017) [2]. The information society presupposes a change in the economic basis and the corresponding superstructure - the creation of specialized information and communication technologies and state, social and legal institutions serving them. State institutions can be easily transformed to correspond to the new post-industrial realities by the relevant decrees and legal acts, because such institutions are mainly topologies, that transport and filter the flow of structured information (turnover of government securities). Public institutions have long been fully prepared to accept the change in the basis, because even the generation of "Millen-nials" already overcomes the forty-year mark. The main barrier to the full digitalization of the economy is the
© Терелянский П.В., 2019. Статья доступна по лицензии Creative Commons «Attribution» («Атрибуция») 4.0. всемирная (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
The Author(s), 2019. This is an open access article under the CC BY 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
inertness in the replacement of technological processes. For example, according to [3], the change of technological structures takes at least forty years (Fig. 1), and in heavy industry to 60-70 years [4]. It should be taken into account, that in the modern economy the duration of "maturity cycles" of information technologies has a clear tendency to decrease [7].
3
1 - Embryonic phase; 2 - Growth phase; 3 - Maturity phase
Source: [3]
Figure 1. Phases of change of techno logical structures according to Academician of the Russian Academy
of Sciences S. Y. Glazev
Process of transformation of the Russian economy into a digital one can be estimated indirectly by the volume of sales of leading domestic companies. At the same time, we deliberately do not consider net and economic profits, as these are indicators of the efficiency of a particular company, while the total volume of sales of all companies in the country (including for any reason unpaid claims) characterizes the declared and satisfied needs of society. We are also deliberately moving away from recalculating ruble values in world currencies and taking into account the inflation component, since the assessment of specific industries will be carried out as a percentage of the total sales of Russian companies. The study [5, 6] suggests, that the increase in the share of sales of IT-oriented industries in the total volume of leading domestic companies reflect the process of digitalization of the economy. To the IT-oriented industries should also be included the companies on mobile data and (partial) services of the enterprises of the banking sector [12]. It's need to say, that the highlight actually of the IT component in the activity of banks can also be made only indirectly on the share of expenditure on computerization. It should be taken into consideration, that part of the work on informatization banks transfer either to external outsourcing or create subsidiaries of IT-companies. So, for example, did the Sber-bank (state savings bank) of Russia, creating a number of subsidiaries: JSC "Sberbank-Technologies", JSC "United Credit Bureau (OKB)", LLC "Sberbank Telecom" (mobile communications, broadband access to the Internet), LLC "KORUS Consulting SNG" (software development), LLC "Real Estate Center from Sberbank" (the development of the services for purchasing property in the mortgage, carries the brand name "Domclick"), LLC "Sberbank-Service" (maintenance of POS terminals and ATMs of the Sberbank), total revenues amounted to 87 billion 789 million 977 thousand Rubles (table. 1).
Table 1
Revenue subsidiary business IT-companies of Savings Bank in million rubles
on the account of 2017 year
Subsidiary business company PJSC Savings Bank Revenue, mln RUB
JSC «Sberbank-Technologies» CJSC «United Credit Bureau» (UCB) LLC « Sberbank Telecom» LLC «KORUS Consulting CIS» LLC «Real Estate Center from Sberbank » LLC «Sberbank -Service» 30 319,977 1 375,00 46 600,00 1 132,00 1 360,00 7 003,00
Total revenue subsidiary IT-companies of Sberbank: 87 789,977
Compiled by the author on the materials: [10]
Summary data on the results of 2017 (table. 2), presented in the Rosstat (the Russian Federal State Statistics Service) database on the official accounting statements of commercial organizations of the Russian Federation (more than 2.3 million organizations, registered in the territory of the Russian Federation) [10], show that fifteen Russian IT companies received revenues of 227 billion 131 million rubles. In the first place is the Russian IT Giant Yandex (the largest national Internet search engine and computer applications) with 86 billion 60 million rubles. A subsidiary of Sberbank of Russia JSC "Sberbank-Technologies" earned a little less than 3 times less from Yandex - 30 billion 319 million rubles. Closes the three leaders of JSC "Kaspersky Lab" (antivirus and computer security) with revenues of 19 billion 723 million rubles, which is 4.36 times less than Yandex. Median value was made by JSC "Nefteavtomatika" with 8 billion 419 million rubles of revenue. And completes this small rating CJSC "Center of Financial Technologies" with 4 billion 950 million rubles of revenue.
Table 2
First fifteen national business IT-companies by revenue volume of products in million rubles
on the account of 2017 year
Place Business organization Indicators mln RUB
Revenue Assets
1 LLC «Yandex» 86 060,00 97 411,00
2 JSC «Sberbank-Technologies» 30 319,00 6 219,00
3 JSC «Kaspersky Lab» 19 723,00 11 975,00
4 LLC «RT-Invest transport systems 10 992,00 37 435,00
5 JSC «Production Company «SKB KONTUR» 10 176,00 3 758,00
6 LLC «Microsoft Rus» 9 246,00 3 545,00
7 LLC «Yandex.Taxi» 9 024,00 4 504,00
8 JSC «Oil Automation» 8 419,00 3 609,00
9 LLC «Russian Venture Society» 7 899,00 543,00
10 LLC «FORS - Center Development» 6 748,00 2 579,00
11 LLC «Luxoft Professional» 6 461,00 1 423,00
12 LLC «ANT-Service» 6 391,00 3 370,00
13 LLC «Deutsche Bank Technological Center» 5 621,00 1 329,00
14 LLC «Yandex.Market» 5 102,00 2 719,00
15 CJSC «Center of Financial Technologies» 4 950,00 5 118,00
Total revenue of 15- business IT-companies of Russia: 227 131
Compiled by the author on the materials: [10]
Analytical center of media holding "Expert" provides free access to the data compiled in the rating of "400 largest companies in Russia" (Expert 400), which will take as a source material for the analysis of the level of digital transformation of the export-oriented economy of Russia [13, 14]. Similar data are prepared by RosBusinessConsulting media holding (RBC) [7]. As has been noted above, the level of transformation will be indirectly estimated on sales volume, expressed in million rubles. The number of business companies in table 3 is not a multiple of ten, as the volume of sales of the first companies in the ranking will be compared with the companies of the IT sector, which in this report are 18. At the same time, a comparison will be made with the data of last year's rating, which featured only 10 domestic IT companies. It should be noted, that the cut-off of 400 (the "Expert") and 500 (RBC) leading companies in the rating is somewhat arbitrary, but the analysis of financial statements more than 2.5 million firms registered in Russia, which is provided by Rosstat, will require a more fundamental approach than the volume of this article allows. The objective of this study is to make a greater extent qualitative indicator assessment, which would allow conclude about the presence or absence of an active process of digital transformation of the Russian economy.
Table 3
First eighteen national business companies by sales volume in million rubles on the account of 2018-year
№ in rating Business company Sales volume (mln RUB) Profit before taxation (mln RUB) Net profit (mln RUB)
1 PJSC «Gazprom» 6 524 711,00 1 018 006,00 766 879,00
2 PJSC «LUKoil» 5 475 180,00 524 184,00 420 422,00
3 PJSC «Rosneft» 5 030 000,00 395 000,00 297 000,00
4 Sberbank of Russia 2 840 900,00 943 200,00 748 700,00
5 OJSC «Russian Railways» 1 697 553,00 52 426,00 17 500,00
6 X5 Retail Group 1 295 008,00 308 938,00 31 394,00
7 VTB Group 1 185 800,00 159 700,00 120 100,00
8 PJSC «Surgutneftegaz» 1 175 019,00 246 433,00 194 718,00
9 Retail Network «Magnet» 1 143 314,40 45 398,60 35 539,00
10 PJSC «Russian Networks» 948 344,00 177 604,00 137 122,00
Total sales volume of 10 companies: 27 315 829, 400
11 «Inter RJSC» Group 917 049,00 64 982,00 54 448,00
12 AC «Transneft» 884 337,00 242 167,00 191 805,00
Total sales volume of 12 companies: 29 117 215, 400
13 AFC«System» 704 551,00 -50 090,00 (announced losses) -66 528,00 (announced losses)
14 PJSC «Taraeft» 681 159,00 163 538,00 123 892,00
15 SC «Megapolis» 676 965,00 18 115,00 14 486,00
16 «Evraz» (Evraz Group) 631 786,80 67 397,60 44 289,90
17 NLMK2 Group 587 321,90 106 377,30 84 728,40
18 PJSC «NovaTAK» 583 186,00 200 839,00 166 470,00
Total sales volume of 18 companies: 32 982 185, 100
Compiled by the author on the materials: [11; 13]
The top ten companies of the rating coincided with the top ten last year (table. 3, 4), increasing the total volume of sales by 2 trillion. 702 billion 746 million 800 thousand rubles (table. 3) up to 29 trillion. 117 billion 215 million 400 thousand rubles. Five leading companies - Gazprom, LUKoil, Rosneft, Sberbank of Russia, and
Russian Railways-remained at the same positions in the rating as last year. VTB group moved from the 6th place to the 7th, claiming 31 billion 700 million rubles of loss (table. 5). Two positions down (from 7 th to 9th) moved and the retail network "Magnet", having increased the sales volume by 68 billion 502 million 800 thousand rubles., the Leading multi-format Russian food retailer X5 Retail Group has strengthened its position, rising just two points from eighth to sixth place. Also, one position up rose oil and gas company PJSC "Surgutneftegaz".
Table 4
First ten national business companies on the sales volume of products in mln rubles
on the account of 2017 year
№ in rating Business company Sales volume (mln RUB) Profit before taxation (mln RUB) Net profit (mln RUB)
1 PJSC «Gazprom» 6 071 793,00 1 285 138,00 997 104,00
2 PJSC Lukoil Oil Company 4 743 732,00 272 515,00 207 642,00
3 PJSC «Rosneft» 4 134 000,00 317 000,00 201 000,00
4 Sberbank of Russia 2 835 300,00 677 500,00 541 900,00
5 OJSC «Russian Railways» 1 577 465,00 43 621,00 6 500,00
6 VTB Group 1 217 500,00 65 500,00 51 600,00
7 Retail Network «Magnet» 1 074 811,60 68 780,00 54 409,00
8 X5 Retail Group 1 033 667,00 249 985,00 22 291,00
9 PJSC «Surgutneftegaz» 1 020 833,00 -72 197,00 (announced losses) -62 033,00 (announced losses)
10 PJSC «Russian networks» 903 981,00 119 842,00 98 341,00
Total sales volume: 24 613 082, 600
Compiled by the author on the materials: [14]
All the top lines of the rating are occupied by companies, that clearly indicate, that the structure of the Russian economy is dominated by resource companies (Gazprom, Lukoil Oil Company, Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz); companies engaged in logistics and the export of material resources (OJSC "Russian Railways", Transneft); food and related small-scale wholesale and retail goods (X5 Retail Group, Retail Network "Magnet"), as well as financial structures providing these processes (Sberbank of Russia, VTB Group) and energy network operators (PJSC "Russian Networks").
Table 5
Rating change on accounts of 2017 and 2018 years
Dynamics in rating points Business company № in rating 2018 № in rating 2017 Disparity of sales volume (mln RUB)
- PJSC «Gazprom» 1 1 452 918,00
- PJSC «LUKoil» 2 2 731 448,00
- PJSC «Rosneft» 3 3 896 000,00
- Sberbank of Russia 4 4 5 600,00
- OJSC «Russian Railways» 5 5 120 088,00
T at 2 X5 Retail Group 6 8 261 341,00
| at 1 VTB Group 7 6 -31 700,00 (reduction)
End of table 5
Dynamics in rating points Business company № in rating 2018 № in rating 2017 Disparity of sales volume (mln RUB)
T at 1 PJSC «Surgutneftegaz» 8 9 154 186,00
| at 2 Retail Network «Magnet» 9 7 68 502,80
- PJSC «Russian Networks» 10 10 44 363,00
Total disparity of sales volume: 2 702 746, 800
Compiled by the author on the materials: [11; 13; 14]
The rest of the companies from the 12th to 29th place of the rating are somehow connected with the transformation of material resources, retail and financial services (for example, Sistema - 13th place, Megapolis -15th place, Severstal - 23rd place, Magnitogorsk iron and steel works - 26th place and so on).
And only on the 84th place of the rating there is a purely IT-company - the National Computer Corporation with a sales volume of 161 billion 271 million 100 thousand rubles (table. 6), which is only 2.4 % of the sales volume of PJSC Gazprom. Further, with a substantial lead is an IT company SC LANIT at the 122nd place. In addition to the noted in the past analytical material [5] ten companies included in the segment of "Information technology", for the first time the rating includes two IT-companies: Holding ITG (317 place) and "SAP SE SIC" (381 place).
Table 6
Business companies, which are included in the segment "Information technologies"
of rating in 2018 year
№ in rating 2018 № in rating 2017 Dynamics in rating points Business company Sales volume (mln RUB)
84 89 T at 5 National Computer Corporation 161 271,10
122 125 T at 3 SC LANIT 118 094,90
150 165 T at 15 «Yandex» 94 054,00
243 275 T at 32 Mail.ru group 51 744,00
253 265 T at 12 Softline 48 387,50
271 348 T at 77 Google 45 220,00
282 251 4 at 31 SC «Technoserv» 43 064,90
287 For the first time in rating 1C 42 700,00
296 For the first time in rating «Kaspersky Lab» 40 730,30
302 318 T at 16 SC Verysell 40 117,00
317 For the first time in rating Holding ITG 38 236,00
381 For the first time in rating «SAP SE SIC» 32 004,00
Total by rating 2018: 755 623 700
Total by rating 2017: 504 605 900
Increase in sales volume: 251 017 800
Compiled by the author on the materials: [11; 13; 14]
The increase in sales volume in the group of Russian IT companies compared to the rating of last year amounted to 251 billion 017 million 800 thousand rubles. Compared with the 12 first companies in the rating (table. 3) it is less than one percent - 0.86%. It should be noted a very small strengthening of the position of companies
in the segment of "Telecommunications and Communications" (table. 7). At the declared losses of 5 billion 500 million rubles the Russian Telecommunications Company "Tele2 Russia" (founded by the Swedish group of companies Tele2 AB on the basis of integration of Russian mobile assets and networks) moved one point up to the 119th position. For the first time in the rating entered the Telecom operator "Dom.ru" (JSC "ER-Telecom holding"), which allowed to increase the volume of sales in the group "Telecommunications and Communications" to 114 billion 573 million 400 thousand rubles compared to last year's data (table. 7).
If we compare the volume of sales in 32 trillion 982 billion 185 million 100 thousand rubles of the 18 first in the rating of national companies (table. 3) with a total sales volume of 2 trillion 110 billion 424 million 700 thousand rubles segment "Information Technology" and "Telecommunications and Communications", it will be almost 6.4 %.
Table 7
Business companies, which are included in the segment "Telecommunications and communications"
of rating in 2018 year
№ in rating 2018 № in rating 2017 Dynamics in rating points Business company Sales volume (mln RUB)
30 35 T at 5 SC «Megafon» 373 297,00
35 30 1 at 5 «Vympelcom» 341 422,00
39 40 T at 1 PJSC of Intercity and International Electric Communication «Rostelecom» 305 329,00
74 73 1 at 1 «Mail of Russia» 178 053,00
119 120 T at 1 «Tele2 Russia» 123 000,00
(announced losses in 5 500,00 mln. RUB)
364 For the first time in rating Telecom-Provider «Dom.ru» (JSC «ER-telecom Holding») 33 700,00
Total by rating 2018: 1 354 801, 000
Total by rating 2017: 1 240 227, 600
Increase in sales volume: 114 573, 400
Compiled by the author on the materials: [11; 13; 14]
With regard to the services6 provided by the banking sector, it is difficult to identify the part, that could be attributed to information or telecommunications technologies. However, there is no doubt that the banking sector offers mainly services not related to the processing of material resources or their extraction. Therefore, these services can be attributed to the sphere of digitalization of the economy. Total sales volume of 26 banks and banking groups included in the rating (table. 8), amounted to 6 trillion. 580 billion 51 million 500 thousand rubles [11, 13, 14] (more than 4 billion rubles. there are only two giants of this group - Sberbank of Russia and VTB Group), which in total sales with the segments "Telecommunications and Communications" and "Information Technology" (8 trillion. 690 billion 476 million 200 thousand rubles) will give 31.8 % of the total sales of the 10 largest companies in Russia.
Announced losses 6 of 26 banks in the ranking: Rosselkhozbank, Bank "Otkrytie", Bank Group "Binbank", Promsvyazbank, Moscow Industrial Bank, Banking Group "Zenit". General losses (table. 8 - column "Net profit") in this segment amounted to 866 billion 008 million 200 thousand rubles. Such a large amount was formed by the losses of only two banks: Bank Otkrytie in connection with the decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia) "On measures to improve the financial stability of PJSC Bank Otkrytie financial
Corporation" [8] and Promsvyazbank in connection with the decision of the Bank of Russia "On the implementation of measures to improve the financial stability of PJSC "Promsvyazbank" [9]. The remaining 4 banks claimed losses of less than 4% of this amount.
Table 8
Business companies, which are included in the segment "Banks" of rating in 2018
№ in rating Business company Sales volume (mln RUB) Profit before taxation (mln RUB) Net profit (mln RUB)
4 Sberbank of Russia 2 S40 900,00 943 200,00 748 700,00
l VTB Group i iS5 S00,00 159 700,00 120 100,00
2S "Gazprombank" Group 392 4l9,00 43 165,00 33 822,00
4S "Alpha-Bank" Group 25S 335,10 68 086,30 54 964,60
49 Rosselkhozbank 25S 22l,00 -14 635,00 -19 479,00
б2 Bank "Otkrytie" 219 33S,00 -432 941,00 -426 750,00
102 Moscow Credit Bank 142 4б9,00 26 817,00 20 703,00
114 Bank Group "Binbank" 12б 223,00 -5 752,00 -8 848,00
120 Promsvyazbank 122 5б3,00 -395 890,00 -405 551,00
125 Unicredit Bank 11б 225,б0 22 713,80 18 056,70
12б Raiffeisenbank 115 110,90 37 000,40 29 143,00
i4S Rosbank 94 S3S,00 14 038,00 10 396,00
i5S Sovcombank S9 005,00 36 659,00 29 571,00
iS3 TKS Bank l4 5SS,00 23 761,00 18 743,00
200 Joint-Stock Bank "Russia" 6S 924,00 6 352,00 3 880,00
225 Home Credit and Finance б0 033,00 17 841,00 14 245,00
Bank
23S Bank "Saint-Petersburg" 53 lll,00 9 355,30 7 491,10
249 Bank Uralsib 48 684,10 5 223,00 4 163,70
250 SMP Bank 48 6l1,l0 1 682,20 1 089,20
2б3 Bank Russian Standard 46 95l,00 3 559,00 2 412,00
2S0 CB "Vostochnyi" 43 362,50 5 354,40 4 380,10
292 Citybank 41 953,60 17 770,70 12 754,80
343 Ural Bank for Reconstruction 35 812,60 9 739,00 8 364,00
and Development
3б0 «Ak Bars» 34 032,40 8 690,80 7 278,50
3Sl Moscow Industrial Bank 31 420,20 -3 906,90 -3 908,10
399 Bank Group "Zenit" 30 321,80 -564,9 -1 472,10
Total sales volume of 26 banks: 6 580 051, 500
Compiled by the author on the materials: [11; 12]
Although the first three companies in the rating of PJSC "Gazprom", "LUKoil" and "Rosneft" are directly associated only with the production of oil and gas, one cannot argue, that they have no significant and expensive p rocesses of digitalization. As with the banking sector, it is quite difficult to allocate the share of internal costs in the amount of resources (cash and human) aimed at the creation and implementation of digital infrastructure, in addition, these companies invest significant funds in research and development work, which can also be attributed to the creation of intangible digital products, which are now embedded in the chain of added value of exported goods, even the most low technological redistributions. Thus, the study shows that almost 32% of the sales volume (34 % according to the analysis of last year's rating [5]) of domestic companies can be attributed
Вестник университета № 6, 2019
to the digital economy, which in turn allows us to notify about a systematic and sustainable movement towards
the transformation of the raw export-oriented "real" economy of Russia into the economy, the basis of which are
the processes directly related to the creation, transformation, transfer and storage of intangible digital entities.
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