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SOME ASPECTS OF ECONOMIC SECURITY OF SAINT PETERSBURG AND THE LENINGRAD REGION UNDER CONDITIONS OF GEOECONOMIC UNCERTAINT
1 2
S. S. Lachininskii '
1 Saint Petersburg State University, 7/9 Universitetskaya Emb.,
Saint Petersburg, 199034, Russia.
2 Institute of Problems of Regional Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 38 Serpuhovskaya St.,
Saint Petersburg, 190013, Russia.
Submitted on April 21, 2018 doi: 10.5922/2079-8555-2018-3-8 © Lachininskii S.S., 2018
In this article, I consider individual aspects of the economic security of Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad Region amid the geo-economic uncertainty observed since 2014. The object of the study is the economic and technological sustain-nability of Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad Region given geo-economic risks and growing challenges to economic security. To evaluate the economic security of Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad Region, I employ some of the parameters proposed in the Strategy for the Economic Security of the Russian Federation until 2030. I also use other parameters pertinent to the evaluation of the state of an economy amid geoeconomic uncertainty, in this case, in the conditions of the crisis of 2014—2016, brought about by both external and internal factors. I employ the concept of the triad of regional economic competitiveness, regional economic security, and sustainable regional socio-economic development. I believe that this triad does not only demonstrate the logic of the current and prospective development of a Russian region but also highlights weaknesses and opportunities for future development. The competitiveness of Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad region amid geo-economic uncertainty is considered through the performance of the regions' key enterprises and emerging technology companies. I analyse the revenue profiles of the regions' leading industrial enterprises in 2014—2015 and emphasise the role of key industrial exporters. This article is a preliminary study without any claim to completeness. Further research will seek to present the findings obtained in more detail.
Keywords: economic security, geo-eco-nomic uncertainty, Saint Petersburg, Leningrad Region, economic stability, competitive advantages, innovations
Baltic Region. 2018. Vol. 10. №3. P. 136—149.
Introduction
Ensuring economic security at the regional level has acquired special significance, given the fact that the recent economic crisis was provoked not only by internal but also by external factors. The period of geo-economic uncertainty of 2014—2016 was caused by a combination of factors [1] whereas the current economic downturn in Russia has occurred mainly due to internal factors.
In [2] it is noted that "the steady decline in growth rates, which began in late 2012, was primarily due to a marked decrease in the investment activity in the Russian economy". This position was shared by other authors, "... during the analyzed sanction period 2014—2016, the negative consequences of sanctions were damaging not so much because of external shocks (fluctuation in oil prices, the prevailing economic trends and the state of the global financial system, etc.), but because of internal factors ('failures' in the regulation of the national economy)"[3]. However, these and similar statements sounded credible until the events of 2018, when the western sanctions and restrictions began to affect macroeco-nomic stability and had a negative impact on the most important sectors of the national economy — oil and gas, energy, and metallurgy. At the beginning of 2018, it became clear that these sanctions focused on specific companies and industries, and affected the economy of the most advanced and successful regions, which were and are integral parts of the global geo-economic space such as Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad region. It can be stated that the study of the genesis and driving forces of the last crisis has developed in socio-economic sciences [4—12].
In particular, some economists point out that "from the middle of 2014, a combination of geopolitical risks, external and internal shocks have resulted in the destabilization of the situation; these factors triggered crisis processes and determined the logic and parameters of a new recession in Russia" [3]. In this regard, issues of economic security, reflected in the Strategy for Economic Security of the Russian Federation until 2030 [12], require inventory particularly when it comes to their implementation in the key regions of the country. In this sense, Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad Region, which ensure the transshipment of 233.7 million tons of cargo in 2017 (or 30 % of the national sea freight turnover of ports) deserve special attention.
Economic security of the region: theory and practice
The concept of economic security appeared in the 20th century. It developed in the United States after President F. Roosevelt announced the creation of a federal committee for economic security. Since then, eco-
nomic security has been discussed at various levels of governance and administration, including the regional level.
The problems of economic security of the region have been analysed in numerous publications in Russia and abroad [13—19]. At the same time, very few authors offered their own evaluation of the system of economic security and its indicators [14]. For example, in [15] it is noted that "economic security and competitiveness are characteristics of the national economic complex and its components. However, if competitiveness is both a goal and an indicator of the degree of development of the national economy and its components, then economic security is a condition for its existence and development". Some authors point out that economic security is not a volatile state; it should be regarded as an instant process of the interaction of subjects where the governing body understands the logic of what is happening without any further study of the factors that caused system transformations in the economic complex of the region [16]. In [14] it was noted that "the socio-economic security of the region depends on the degree of self-sufficiency and financial independence of the region, the development of its economic potential (industrial, labour, investment, innovative and research". These authors connect the concepts of 'economic security of the region' and 'economic stability of the region', where the latter relies on the economic complex of the region and the ability to maintain continuous reproduction of goods and services, with a stable increase in production and economic indicators.
Some researchers [17—18] link the concept of 'economic security' to the notion of competitiveness. P. Ya. Baklanov interprets economic security as a factor, a condition, and an element of sustainable development. He believes that economic security is an 'internal ability of a country or a region to develop in a sustainable and efficient way', i. e., economic security is a narrower concept that constitutes a broader term — 'sustainable development' [20]. Both concepts are often used in the definitions of each other: 'economic security' means 'sustainable development' and vice versa. Indeed, there is a link between the competitiveness and economic security of the region and its sustainability of its development. Understanding the link gives a more complete picture of the logic of today's and tomorrow's development of Russian regions and allows us to see weaknesses and opportunities of their future development.
At the same time, in the state planning and management, the regional dimension of economic security is barely noticeable. The Strategy [12] contains only one point, Paragraph 24, which states "uneven spatial development of the Russian Federation, the strengthening of the differentiation of regions and municipalities in terms of the level and pace of socioeconomic development." It can be concluded that the stability of the country's spatial structure, its macroregions and strategically important zones etc. has been given the necessary attention.
Yet, the Strategy notes that among the main tasks for the implementation of the sustainable spatial regional development of the Russian Federation there are the following ones:
1) improvement of the system of territorial planning, taking into account challenges and threats to the national security of the Russian Federation;
2) improvement of the national settlement system, the creation of conditions for the development of urban agglomerations;
3) reduction of the level of interregional differentiation in the socioeconomic development of the regions of the Russian Federation;
4) expansion and strengthening of economic ties between the regions of the Russian Federation, the creation of inter-regional production and infrastructure clusters;
5) priority development of the economic potential of Eastern Siberia, the Far North, the Far East, the North Caucasus, the Crimea and the Kaliningrad region;
6) development of the Northern Sea Route, the modernization of the Baikal-Amur and Trans-Siberian railways.
Thus, Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad Region can be considered in the context of the implementation of the tasks of Paragraphs 1—3 of the Strategy [12].
After the reorganization of the executive authorities of Saint Petersburg in late 2012 — early 2013, the Interdepartmental Commission on Economic Security under the Government of Saint Petersburg resumed its work. A number of relevant departments and services were invited to participate in the discussion of security-related issues — the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Federal Security Service and others.
It is clear that the tasks of a balanced spatial and regional development of the Russian Federation can be resolved only in the cooperation between regional and federal executive authorities responsible for socioeconomic development.
Indicators of the economic security of regions
The problem of selecting indicators for the study of any phenomenon is always fraught with certain difficulties: the availability of data, their representativeness and 'quality'. To assess the economic security of Russia's regions, we will rely on the system of indicators proposed in the Strategy [12]. However, out of the forty proposed indicators, only very few can be used for the assessment of the economic security of regions: GRP per capita, share of investments in fixed assets in GRP, trade balance, and retail trade turnover.
In our study we used the following indicators: population size, migration growth, GRP, GRP per capita, revenues of the consolidated budget of the entity, share of investment in fixed assets from GRP, share of investments in fixed assets from GRP, volume of shipped goods of own production, (processing production), the volume of retail trade, and the balance of trade balance.
Table 1
Economic security indicators for Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad Region *
Indicators Saint Petersburg Leningrad Region
2010 2016 Growth 2010 2016 Growth
Population, mln. people 4,88 5,28 108,2 1,72 1,79 104,1
Migration increase, th. people 58,6** 44,7 76,2 25,8 21,7 83,9
GRP, bln. rubles 2628 3742 142,4 788 914 116,0
GRP per capita, th. rubles 536,3 712,3 132,8 345,2 511,8 148,2
Incomes of the consolidated budget of the entity, mln. rubles 552,0 485,9 88,0 111,9 136,7 122,2
Share of investments in fixed assets from GRP, % 37,7 15,5 87,1 28,7
Volume of shipped goods of own production, (processing), bln. rubles 2071 2062 99,6 254 899 353,9
Volume of retail trade, bln. rubles 1075,4 1234,3 114,8 266,3 342,6 128,6
Trade balance, bln. dollars -19,9 -5,5 8,5 2,1
* priced at 2016; ** — 2011.
Table 1 shows that most economic security indicators of both regions demonstrate positive dynamics; it proves that the economic model of the regions was sustainable.
Saint Petersburg has been following the development pattern of the biggest cities in the world. The city's economy accounts for a much more impressive share (21 % of GRP in 2016) in the shipbuilding, automobile and mechanical engineering industries. The trade sector accounts for
25 % of the city's economy. The economy of the Leningrad region is also based on the processing industry (about 30 % GRP) and transport infrastructure (transport and communications — 17 % GRP).
The population of both regions has been growing due to both natural and mechanical growth. At the same time, there was a reduction in migration growth rate after the devaluation of the ruble in 2014—2016. This resulted in the freezing of a number of construction projects. An alarming indicator for Saint Petersburg is a decrease in revenues of the consolidated budget during the analysed period. At the same time, the Leningrad region increased its revenues. In both regions, there was a decrease in the share of investments in fixed assets in GRP, which hindered the modernization of physical assets of the regions. It should be noted that in Russia the economic crisis of 2014—2017 was preceded by almost zero dynamics of investments in fixed assets in real terms during 2013. An important parameter of the economic security of the regions was the trade balance, which declined mainly due to lower imports.
Competitiveness of Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad Region under the conditions of geo-economic uncertainty
The competitiveness of Russian regions, as well as regions of other countries, is based on the competitiveness of their core businesses. The activity of such enterprises determines the specialization of the regions and provides the bulk of tax revenues to the consolidated regional budgets. It plays a major role in the formation of household incomes [21].
However, table 2 shows that the basis for competitiveness is formed by the oil and gas producing companies and retail trade. At the same time, the existing system of state defense orders allowed the United Shipbuilding Corporation (UCS), which historically developed in the city of the shipbuilding cluster, took the fifth place among 11 enterprises of the cluster including such industrial giants as Baltiysky Zavod, Admiral-teyskye Verfi, SZ Severnaya Verf and others. In turn, the leading companies of the Leningrad region are mostly domestic and foreign manufacturing companies.
In 2015, out of the 50 largest technological companies in Russia [22] three were located in Saint Petersburg - Admiralteyskye Verfi (17th place), CDB MT Rubin (20th place), and SZ Severnaya Verf (38th place).
During the crisis of 2014—2017, both regions focused on import substitution and the construction of new industrial facilities. In 2016, a new production facility for manufacturing railway carriages was opened at the Oktyabrsky Electric Car Repair Plant (Saint Petersburg). The production capacity of this enterprise is about 200 underground train carriages and at least 70 trams a year.
Table 2
The volume of sales of the largest companies of Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad region
Saint Petersburg Leningrad Region
2010 2016 2010 2016
1. Gazpromneft Gazpromneft Philipp Moris Izora Novotek-Ust-Luga
2. OKey VTB Philipp Moris Izora Philipp Moris Izora
3. Agrotorg Agrotorg Baltnefteprovod TD Intertorg
4. Lenta Lenta Kirischinefteorg-sintez Nockian Schina
5. Transoil UCC Vyborg Shipping Factory Orimi Traid
6. Petersburg Supp- Rostelecom Henkel-Era International
ly Company Paper
7. Transaero KIT Finans International Paper Tikhvin Railway Car Building Plant
8. Gazpromtransgaz OKey Titan-2 Titan-2
9. Petro Stroygazconsalting Nockian Schina Jacobs
10. Gosznak Stroyneftegaz VIS Ust-Luga Oil
The dynamics of revenues of the leading industrial companies in 2014—2015 shows that industrial enterprises in Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad region contributed to the strengthening of economic security and increasing the competitiveness of regional economies of these subjects of the Russian Federation.
Table 3
Dynamics of revenues of the leading industrial enterprises of Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad Region in 2014—2015 [23]
Revenues, Revenue
Company Region Industry billion rubles growth
2014 2015 rate, %
Gazpromneft SPb Fuel 1408,2 1467,9 4
Novotek-Ust-Luga LR Fuel 76,1 142,7 88
Hyundai Motors SPb Automotive
Manufacturing Rus 85,4 103,2 21
Group Ilim SPb Pulp and paper 71,3 102,5 44
Nissan Manufaturing Rus SPb Automotive 152,0 97,0 -36 %
End of Table 3
Revenues, Revenue
Company Region Industry billion rubles growth
2014 2015 rate, %
Petersburg Supply SPb Power
Company 85,8 96,7 13 %
Philip Morris LR Tobacco
Izhora 69,9 88,6 27 %
Baltika Breweries SPb Foodstuffs 83,2 86,6 4 %
TGK-1 SPb Power 69,0 69,4 1 %
Power Machines SPb Power engineering 69,8 59,8 - 14 %
Kirischinefteorgsin LR Oil refining
tez 54,7 56,5 3 %
British American SPb Tobacco
Tobacco-SPb 32,6 48,8 50 %
Petro SPb Tobacco 35,4 47,3 34 %
Admiralteyskie SPb Shipping
Verfi 36,4 45,3 24 %
IDGC of the North- LR Power
West 46,9 42,4 - 6 %
Lenenergo SPb Power 41,6 39,0 - 6 %
Orimi LR Foodstuffs 26,7 35,5 33%
International Paper LR Pulp and paper 25,9 36,4 41 %
Gosznak SPb Poligraph 44,1 36,0 - 19 %
It is important to emphasize the fact that some of the companies are large exporters. For example, industrial companies in Saint Petersburg accounted for $ 2.2 billion of industrial exports in 2015, and $ 1.2 billion in the Leningrad Region [24]. There are several big exporting companies in the two regions: Ilim Group ($ 1.2 billion), Phosphorit ($ 0.3 billion), British American Tobacco-Saint Petersburg ($ 0.16 billion), International Paper ($ 0.15 billion, LPK), Philip Morris Izhora ($ 0.13 billion), Metachim ($ 0.12 billion), Gosznak ($ 0.1 billion), Vtormet ($ 0.09 billion), Power Machines ($ 0, 07 billion), MM-Efimovsky ($ 0.06 billion), Mera ($ 0.06 billion), Tikhvin Ferroalloy Plant ($0.05 bln. dollars), and others.
During the crisis, many leading industrial companies managed to enter international markets — those of the post-Soviet space, the Middle East and Europe. 15 companies from Saint Petersburg were included in the national ranking of the Russian fast-growing technology companies, "Tehuspeh" (Success in Technology). These companies represented the following sectors: information technology (1 company), electronics and mechanical engineering (5 companies), pharmaceuticals (3 companies),
machine building (1 company), industrial equipment (1 company), engineering (2 companies), electronics (1 company), and energy generation (1 company).
Table 4
Rapidly growing technology companies of Saint Petersburg in 2017 ("Tehuspeh" ranking [25])
Basic Rating Fast-growing Innovative
Company № Company № Company №
Biokad 4 Optoseans 10 Laboratory "Computational mechanics" 2
Optoseans 11 ETU 14 Laser Systems 8
Laboratory "Computational mechanics" 12 Laboratory "Computational mechanics" 20 Geoscan 14
Racurs-engineering 23 Radar MMS 18
Geoscan 24 Biokad 24
Biokad 36 DIACONT 26
BI Pitron 54 Optoseans 29
Laser Systems 59 Geofarm 32
Geofarm 63 Alkor Bio 38
Alkor Bio 83 BI Pitron 44
SPBEK 93 ARGUS-SPEKTR 51
Radar MMS 94 SPBEK 85
ARGUS-SPEKTR 102 Skayt 96
DIACONT 110 Racurs-engineering 100
ETU 107
Compared with 2014, the number of companies increased from 14 to 15.
Recommendations for the state policy in the field of economic security
The conducted analysis allows us to elaborate a number of recommendations, which can be used for strengthening economic security by the authorities of Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad region.
Firstly, it is necessary to intensify the work of the Interdepartmental Commissions under the Government of Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad Region on economic security with a view to solving tasks 1—3 of the Strategy.
Secondly, it is advisable to learn from the experience of Concern of the East-Kazakhstan region Almaz-Antey (2007—2015). The enterprise set up a North-West Regional Centre (NWTC), which is a modern innovative production and technology cluster. This experience should be disseminated in other sectors of Saint Petersburg — shipbuilding, propulsion engineering, automobile industry, power engineering, IT and pharmaceuticals.
Thirdly, taking into account the change in the procedure of paying corporate income tax for large companies, it is expected that the budget deficit will increase further (the deficit will grow from 31.4 to a record 51.5 billion rubles). This makes it necessary to radically change the economic policy in the field of supporting and stimulating industrial production through the creation of large industrial and technological clusters with a scientific, experimental, laboratory and production facilities outside the historical centre of the city1.
Fourthly, in line with the overall goal of the Saint Petersburg Social and Economic Development Strategy until 2030, which is aimed at increasing the global competitiveness of Saint Petersburg, it is necessary to focus the cluster policy on attracting private and public businesses2 to clusters. It is necessary to move away from the prescriptive and move on to stimulating the initiative from below, from business, primarily in projects involving the state (shipbuilding, military-industrial complex, transport complex, infrastructure, urban economy, creative sectors of the economy).
Fifthly, in the face of increasing geo-economic risks and external pressure, there is an increasing need to force large-scale import substitution projects in line with sector-specific import substitution plans approved by the orders of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia (for Leningrad Region — woodworking, agriculture, furniture industry).
1 OAO Klimov (production of aircraft engines) is completing the implementation of a strategic investment project for the transfer of production facilities, reconstruction and technical re-equipment of the scientific and production base for the production of aviation gas turbine engines (the volume of investment in the project is 6.5 billion rubles). Power Machines (production of power equipment and turbines) is already implementing a project that provides for the withdrawal of the production facilities of the branches of the Leningrad Metal Plant, Elec-trosila, Turbine Blades Plant from the historic centre and the construction of a modern plant for the production of power equipment on land sites located in non-residential zones "Metallostroy" and "Izhorskiye Zavody".
2 As part of the development of the Cluster of the Medical, Pharmaceutical Industry and Radiation Technologies in St. Petersburg, a number of investment projects are underway to create laboratory complexes and pharmaceutical production: ZAO Tsitomed; POLISAN; Grotex; OOO "Gerofarm"; OOO Samson-Med.
Sixthly, the Leningrad Region still lacks fast-growing technological companies. It threatens not only the economic security of the region, but also its competitiveness in the medium term. In this regard, there is a urgent need to prepare industrial sites and investment projects to attract technological companies to the areas adjacent to Saint Petersburg and to the already existing industrial centres of the region3.
Conclusions
The economic security of Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad region under the conditions of geo-economic uncertainty of 2014 cannot be considered in isolation from the competitiveness of the regional economy. It should be regarded through the prism of activities of key enterprises of the two regions. Our analysis of the activity of fast-growing technological companies showed that the Leningrad Region still does not have such companies whereas in Saint Petersburg the most dynamic companies work in the pharmaceutical industry, machine building, engineering and electronics.
The analysis of revenues of the leading industrial companies of both regions in 2014—2015 showed that 15 of 20 leading industrial companies demonstrated positive dynamics. Our analysis showed that the economic security of the Leningrad Region under conditions of geo-economic uncertainty was characterized by greater stability. The fact that both regions had large industrial exporters contributed to their competitiveness.
In Saint Petersburg due to the presence of fast-growing technological companies belonging to the fifth and the sixth technological paradigms, a foundation has been laid for strengthening the competitiveness and economic security of the region in the future. A more detailed study of the economic security of the regions at the level of specific enterprises requires a special survey, a questionnaire of managers (management) of the leading enterprises of key enterprises of both regions. The first group of respondents could include managers of companies having the highest volume of sales (table 2) as well as industrial leaders (table 3).
Acknowledgements
The study was carried out at the expense of a grant from the Russian Science Foundation (project No. 18-17-00112 "Ensuring Economic Security of the Regions of the Western Russia Abroad in Conditions of Geopolitical Turbulence").
3 In the summer of 2018, the Kalashnikov Concern completed the acquisition of a 60 % stake in Kingisepp Machine-Building Plant LLC and Dieselsipservice LLC. The enterprises will become a base for a diesel engine cluster, the creation of which is planned in the Leningrad Region [25]
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The author
Dr Stanislav S. Lachininskii, Associate Professor, Department of Economic and Social Geography, Saint Petersburg State University; Research Fellow, Institute of Problems of Regional Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Saint Petersburg, Russia.
E-mail: [email protected]
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0885-6992
To cite this article:
Lachininskii, S. S. 2018, Some aspects of economic security of Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad region under conditions of geoeconomic uncertaint, Balt. Reg., Vol. 10, no. 3, p. 136—149. doi: 10.5922/2079-8555-2018-3-8.
