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8Oriental Renaissance: Innovative, educational, natural and social sciences Scientific Journal Impact Factor Advanced Sciences Index Factor
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CONTEMPORARY ISSUES OF POLITICAL CHANGE
Djumaev R.Z.
Doctor of political sciences, professor Tashkent State University of Oriental studies e-mail: [email protected]
25, Shahrisabz,Tashkent,100060, Uzbekistan
ABSTRACT
It is well known that since ancient times, mankind has believed and speculated that there would be an "end times" due to some kind of force, that destruction would occur, and that humanity would disappear from the face of the earth as a result. According to British statistics, there are more than 300 predictions on the subject.
The most impressive of these are the lectures of the couple Donella and Denis Medous and Y. Randers. These scientists, using computer modeling, have developed scenarios of approximate options for human development in the 21st century, which have been described in the books Growth Limits (1972) [1] and Beyond Growth Limits (1992). The book contains 13 scenarios, intended to show the relationship between industrial and food production, environmental pollution, the increase of pandemics and environmental disasters, the world's population (the environment of the world in general), on the other hand there also described the "material standard of living" of the world's population in periods (life expectancy, volume of consumer goods production, services and products per capita). Many scholars and experts, politicians and government officials who have left their mark on world history thought about the concept of "progress". Most of them supported the idea of "progress" only with the meaning of "from bottom to up". One of them described the highest peak of progress as "Chinese communism", while another one called it "Western democracy". This one-sided explanation is reflected in the theory called "five formations" (as primitive, slavery, feudalism, capitalism and communism or western democracy). It has been emphasized that all nations must go through these formations.
But in the development of some countries some of the five formations may not be observed, i.e. they may choose a completely different path of development. At the current stage of global change and global development humanity is witnessing extremely complex and contradictory processes.
In particular:
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first, the emergence of new states on the world map, the emergence of new opportunities that will serve the peaceful coexistence of mankind and the rise to a new stage of development;
second, the emergence of ideological trends that hinder secular development, undermine democratic development and threaten the unity of mankind;
third, the process of globalization is marked by the penetration to all spheres of society.
All of these changes provide an opportunity to examine stereotypes about global development.
To the traditional problems that humanity has not yet found a solution to on the one hand; on the other hand, it remains surrounded by new threats and dangers (pandemics, environmental and economic crises and etc.) that have recently emerged. Therefore, we need to find answers to the following questions that concern us all: first, in this regard what measures should scientists and politicians develop and implement?
second, in what direction should the solution of these problems be sought? third, given the fact that these problems are related to objective factors, what role does human thinking play in solving them?
fourth, is it possible to completely eliminate mentioned problems? fifth, does humanity have the opportunity to live in a time without threat? Building a peaceful and prosperous life depends on the extent to which we answer these questions. This depends, first of all, on the extent to which the human mind perceives these problems, to what extent they can threaten humanity if people do not find a solution, and, finally, to what extent the approach to the issue meets the requirements of the time.
Keywords: development, socio-political change, society, positive tendendcies, negative tendencies, political technologies, global change.
Маълумки, одамзод цадим замонларданоц цандайдир кучлар сабабли "охир замон " булиши, халокат юз бериши, бунинг натижасида инсоният Ер юзидан йуц булиб кетиши тугрисидаги фикрларга ишонган ва бу хацда тахминлар юритган. Инглиз статистикаси маълумотларига кура, бу мавзуда 300 дан купроц башоратлар мавжуд.
Улардан энг таъсирчани эр-хотин Донелла ва Денис Медоуз уамда Й.Рандерсларнинг маърузаларидир. Бу олимлар компьютерда моделлаштириш
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воситасида XXI аср инсоният тарацциётининг тахминий вариантлар
китобларида баён цилишди. Китобда 13 та сценарий келтирилган булиб, уларда истеъмол цилинаётган зазираларнинг хажми, саноат ишлаб чицариши, озиц-овцат маусулотлари ишлаб чицариш, атроф-мууитнинг ифлосланиши, пандемия ва экологик уалокатлар купайиши, Ер юзи ауолисининг сони (умумлашган уолда, дунёнинг уолати) уртасидаги узаро боглицлик хусусиятларини очиб беришга уаракат цилинган булса, бошца томондан, ер юзи ауолисининг даврлардаги "моддий уаёт даражаси" тахмини (хаёт давомийлиги, истеъмол моллари ишлаб чицариш хажми, ауоли жон бошига тугри келадиган хизматлар ва маусулотлар) келтирилган. Жауон тарихида из цолдирган куплаб олим ва мутахасислар, сиёсатчилар ва давлат арбоблари "тарацциёт" тушунчаси буйича фикр юритишган. Уларнинг аксарияти "тарацциёт" деганда, фацат цуйидан юцорига цараб бориш зоясини ёцлаб чицишган. Улардан бири тарацциётнинг энг юцори чуццисини " Хитой коммунизми " деб таърифласа, бошцаси "зарб демократияси " деб атаган. Бу бир томонлама тушунтириш "беш формация " назариясида уз аксини топган. (ибтидоий, цулдорлик, феодализм, капитализм ва комунизм ёки гарб демократияси). Барча миллатлар ана шу формацияларни босиб утиши шарт эканини таъкидлаб келганлар. Дунёда кечаётган глобал узгаришлар ва жауон тарацциётининг уозирги босцичда инсоният гоят мураккаб, зиддиятли жараёнларнинг гувоуи булмоцда. Жумладан у:
биринчидан, дунё харитасида янги давлатларнинг вужудга келиши, инсониятнинг тинч-тотув яшаши ва тарацциётнинг янги босцичга кутарилишига хизмат циладиган янги имкониятларнинг пайдо булиши;
иккинчидан, дунёвий тарацциётга тусиц буладиган, демократик ривожланишни издан чицарадиган ва инсоният бирлигига таудид соладиган гоявий йуналишларнинг вужудга келиши;
учинчидан, глобаллашув жараёни жамият уаётининг барча соуаларига кириб келаётгани билан белгиланади.
Бу узгаришларнинг барчаси жауон тарацциёти масаласига оид стереотипларни куриб чициш имконини беради.
Хозирда инсоният бир томондан уз ечимини топмаган анъанавий муаммоларга;
сценарийларини ишлаб чициб, уни "Усиш чегаралари" ("Пределы роста" 1972й ) ва Усиш чегараларидан ташцарида ("За пределами роста" 1992й)
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иккинчи тамондан сунгги вацтда вужудга келган янги хавф-хатар ва таудидлар (пандемия, экологик ва ицтисодий инцироз ва у.к) гирдобида цолмоцда.
Шу боис, барчамизни уйлантираётган цуйидаги саволларга жавоб топишимиз зарур:
биринчидан, бу борада олимлар, сиёсатчилар цандай чора-тадбирлар ишлаб чициши ва амалиётга татбиц этиши даркор?
иккинчидан, мазкур муаммоларнинг ечимини цайси йуналишда изланмоц лозим?
учинчидан, ушбу муаммоларнинг объектив омиллар билан бозлицлигини эътиборга олган уолда, уларни уал цилишда инсон тафаккури цандай ауамият касб этади?
туртинчидан, зикр этилган муаммоларни тулиц бартараф цилиш мумкинми?
бешинчидан, инсоният таудидсиз даврда яшаш имкониятига эгами?
Тинч ва фаровон хаёт барпо цилиш мазкур саволларга цай даражада жавоб беришимизга бозлиц. Бу эса, биринчи галда, ушбу муаммоларни инсон ацл-идроки цай даражада англаб етаётгани, улар уз ечимини топмаган тацдирда башариятга цанчалик таудид солиши мумкинлиги ва ниуоят, масалага ёндашиш замон талабларига цай даражада жавоб бериш билан боглиц.
Калит сузлар: ривожланиш, ижтимоий-сиёсий узгариш, жамият, ижобий тенденциялар, салбий тенденциялар, сиёсий технологиялар, глобал узгариш.
Хорошо известно, что с древних времен человечество верило и размышляло о том, что наступит «конец света» из-за какой-то силы, что произойдет разрушение, и в результате человечество исчезнет с лица земли. Согласно британской статистике, существует более 300 прогнозов на эту тему.
Наиболее впечатляющими из них являются лекции супругов Донеллы и Дени Медуза и Й. Рандерса. Используя компьютерное моделирование, эти ученые разработали сценарии приближенных вариантов развития человека в 21-м веке, которые были описаны в книгах «Пределы роста» (1972) и «За пределами роста» («Za predelami rosta» (1992)). В книге перечислены 13 сценариев, которые описывают взаимосвязи между количеством
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потребляемых отходов, промышленным производством, производством продуктов питания, загрязнением окружающей среды, пандемиями и экологическими катастрофами, и количеством людей на Земле (в целом, состоянием мира). С другой стороны, приводятся оценки «материального уровня жизни» населения мира по периодам (продолжительность жизни, объем производства потребительских товаров, услуг и продуктов на душу населения). Многие ученые и эксперты, политики и государственные деятели, которые оставили свой след в мировой истории, подумали о понятии «прогресс». Большинство из них поддержали идею «прогресса» только снизу вверх. Один описал вершину прогресса как «китайский коммунизм», а другой назвал его «западной демократией». Это одностороннее объяснение отражено в теории "пяти образований". (примитив, рабство, феодализм, капитализм и коммунизм или западная демократия). Было подчеркнуто, что все нации должны пройти через эти формирования.
Конец ХХ века характеризовался не только столь «долгожданным» на Западе сломом социалистической системы, исчезновением биполярного мира и становлением Мировых центров сил, непрогнозируемой безумной глобализацией со всеми вытекающими отсюда последствиями ,но, как это уже сейчас очевидно, появлением новых, невиданных раннее угроз и вызовов не только суверенитетам отдельных стран, но прежде всего -угрозами для существования как каждого отдельного индивида, так вызовами существованию самого Человечества. Первая четверть ХХ1 века как никогда раннее, выпятила, обнажила и довела до кульминационной точки все болевые проблемы - экологические, экономические, геополитические, социально-культурные и пр. Огромное беспокойство вызывает то, что не просто на уровне обыденного, но прежде всего- научного познания, не оказались до конца апробированными, методологически выверенными проблемы адекватного анализа и прогнозирования данных угроз и вызовов.
Ключевые слова: развитие, социально-политические изменения, общество, позитивные тенденции, негативные тенденции, политические технологии, глобальные изменения.
Despite the fact that development and progress in scientific works are synonymous with each other, progress as a product of progressive development is a form of socio-political change from simple to complex, from bottom to top, directing people's thinking from a relatively pessimistic to optimistic state.
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Thus, development as a neutral phenomenon combines two features: development and crisis: if development acquires an optimal essence and develops upward on the basis of the law of transition from quantitative to qualitative changes, it acquires a progressive essence and ensures progress.
If it seems that he is in a state of low regression, it creates problems and conflicts as regressive development, which grows and manifests itself as a threat to the natural foundations of socio-political life at the crisis level. If development itself provides progress for some forces, it can lead to regression or crisis for forces that oppose it.
The one-sidedness of the former Marxist-Leninist doctrine is also evident in this area. They closely connect the nature of development only with the mode of production, although this is a process closely related to the spiritual image of society, as well as political factors.
At the present stage of global change and global development, mankind is undergoing extremely complex, contradictory processes.
firstly, the appearance of new states on the world map is the appearance of new opportunities that will serve the peaceful coexistence of humanity and the rise to a new stage of development;
secondly, the appearance of ideological trends that impede secular development, undermine democratic development and threaten the unity of mankind;
thirdly, this is determined by the fact that the process of globalization penetrates into all spheres of society.
All of these changes provide an opportunity to look at stereotypes about global development.
To the traditional problems that humanity is currently unresolved on the one hand;
on the other hand, it remains surrounded by new threats and threats (pandemics, environmental and economic crises, etc.) that have recently appeared.
Therefore, we need to find answers to the following questions that concern us all: First, what measures should scientists and politicians develop and implement in this regard?
secondly, in which direction should one seek a solution to these problems? thirdly, considering the relativeness of problems with objective factors, what is the role of human thinking in solving them?
fourth, is it possible to completely eliminate the problems mentioned?
Including:
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fifth, is humanity capable of living in a time without threat?
Building a peaceful and prosperous life depends on how well we answer these questions. This is primarily due to the extent to which the human mind perceives these problems, to what extent they can pose a threat to humanity if they are not solved, and, finally, to what extent the approach to the problem meets modern requirements.
What cardinal changes are taking place in the modern world?
Positive tendendcies include:
1. The end of the bipolar (bipolar) system and the cold war.
2. A new stage in the national liberation movement and the establishment of new independent countries.
3. Totalitarianism has failed.
4. Trends towards a polycentric world are increasing and new ways and opportunities of development are emerging (political pluralism).
5. The age of information-communication, digital technologies have entered.
6. There is a growing need for the formation of civil society (increasing socialization).
Negative tendencies include:
1. Increasing symptoms of indigestion towards progress towards a polycentric world. An increasing tendency to form a monopolar (unipolar) world.
2. Abuse of democracy.
3. Aggressive nationalism and growing national separatism.
4. Prioritize the use of available opportunities to the detriment of others at the expense of their own.
5. The occurrence of the dangerous nature of information competition and hybrid of information conflicts.
6. The escalation of regional conflicts
Reasons for the constant threats and threats to the development of society:
I. Objective (indirect, unchanging) reasons:
1. Social development consists of conflicts of interests (forces) and contradictions.
2. The fact that social development is rich in coincidences and it is not always possible to model it.
3. Widening the gap between advanced (rich) and lagging (poor) countries.
4. The limitation of human thinking in the face of unexpected events and developments.
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Given the current situation, it is no coincidence that most scientists say that after this pandemic, humanity has "entered a critical, uncertain period, all countries are in the throes of a deep economic crisis."
For example, in the 1980s, the American scientist Emmanuel Wallerstein predicted in his works that "... current conflicts are nothing, if the process goes that way, unheard of events could happen by the middle of the 21st century" [2].
So, in today's complex period, the need for scientific analysis, modern technological methods is growing exponentially.
The famous twentieth-century philosopher Karl Jaspers, in his book "The Meaning and Purpose of History", "Smisl i naznachenie istorii" [3], described each "period as a specific threat."
According to him, "Human history goes through only one way - periods. And each historical period has its own characteristics.
Hence, the desire to visualize it clearly and to find solutions to the various problems in the process is a response to the threat of the period.
So, on the one hand, the "requirements of the period" and on the other hand, the "understanding of the period" are closely linked, they create the basis for development.
A nation that is indifferent to its time will literally wither like a branch cut off from a tree.
What does the term "demand of the time" mean? In a sense, if we compare the period to a giant magnet, all the processes around it "rotate" and it can be called a "base period". There have not been many such periods in the history of mankind.
I. The period of human transition from hunting to agriculture is a very large evolutionary process.
II. In the twelfth and eighth centuries BC, people began to feel dissatisfied with their way of life, and it grew stronger. This has given birth to thinkers in China, India, Europe and Central Asia at the same time. In China - Confucius, in India - Buddha, in Arabia - in the VII century, the Prophet Muhammad (sav), in Greece - Plato, and finally in Central Asia - the thinkers of the IX-XY centuries. It was these scholars who put forward the idea that society, people should now abandon ignorance and acquire other human qualities.
III. Today's process requires each country to reconsider its direction of development.
Sample:
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This requires that in the future mutual contradictions be replaced by mutual understanding and cooperation.
I. This is the first base period, which can be conditionally called the transition to a new basis of existence.
II. This is the second base period, which can be conditionally called the period of revision of vital values.
III. This process could be conditionally called the third base period - the period of mutual understanding and cooperation.
So, what is the role of the demand of the time in the construction of statehood?
Clearly, it can be said that achieving an acceptable standard in the construction of statehood means adequate response to the requirements of a particular period.
It can be said that the future will be great only for the people who understand the requirements of the time, choose the right path in their development and form their statehood on its basis. But this does not mean that every nation establishes the same form of statehood in the process of statehood formation, while the requirements of the time are the same. After all, every country has its own identity, which is reflected in its history, mentality, level of development and intellectual potential.
So, if there is a set of criteria for determining the level of coexistence of nations with the requirements of the period, if the nation does not stumble and moves forward in accordance with the principles of its development, then it can be said that this nation is developing in line with the times. On the contrary, if a nation does not understand the demands of the times in time, if it stumbles at every step, the risk will increase, it will be discredited in the eyes of the world community and it will become a "problematic state". It is known from history that in such a situation the great empires disintegrated, but on the contrary, those who were able to meet the demands of such an era turned to development. So, there can be said that, the more societies there are in the world, the more developmental models there are and the more inconsistent they may be.
Each era requires a new approach and thinking. Therefore, today it is advisable to think about a new historical stage, that is, a new period, to enrich it with new scientific and technological developments.
Reasons for constant threats and challenges to the development of society:
I. Objective reasons:
1. Social development consists of conflicts of interests (forces) and contradictions.
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2. The fact that social development is rich in coincidences and it is not always possible to model it.
3. Widening the gap between advanced (rich) and lagging (poor) countries.
4. The limitation of human thinking in the face of the development of unexpected events and phenomena (pandemics, global and regional conflicts, economic crises, etc.).
II. Subjective reasons:
1. The fact that an acceptable system of social relations (inter-human, inter-ethnic, inter-state, inter-civilizational, etc.) is not creating at the level of modern requirements.
2. The striving for superiority of one nation over other nations.
3. The existing laws of social development are not fully understood and do not seek to be understood by the subjects.
4. To reject the will of millions of people in order to pursue their own interests, to create the conditions for their existence, and to be ready to use any anti-human means in this way.
The reasons for the growing threats and challenges to the development of society today
I. Objective reasons:
1. The deepening of socio-political inequality around the world.
2. The current international legal system lags behind the requirements of the times.
3. The widening gap between politics and science;
4. Non-compliance with the principle of interests by a group of states and transnational organizations is a violation of the balance of interests in the world economy.
II. Subjective reasons:
1. Low level of awareness of changes in world politics.
2. Non-recognition of political mistakes made and to be made.
3. The practice of dividing the world into "enlightened" (civilized) and "unenlightened" (uncivilized) spaces and states is preserved, raising it to the level of legitimacy.
4. One-sidedness and traditionalism in the fight against completely new social threats. Strengthening the trend towards the use of force in solving socio-political problems.
5. Unjustified transfer of world wealth to a group of "leading states".
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6. Enforcing political conditions under the pretext of economic aid.
7. The existence of growing geopolitical aspirations in one region of the world (forcing a weak state to fall within its political sphere of influence).
8. Conscious impact on the subconscious fronts, given the strength of the religious factor in human spirituality, the psyche. The practice of ancient artificial politicization of interfaith natural debate today.9. The narcotics business has become a major source of funding for modern international terrorism.
9. Since ancient times, artificial politicization (separatism) has been practiced, taking into account the predominance of ethnic and national aspects in the minds of people.
As the issue of global and national security on earth is one of the main tasks of any state, timely understanding of the current requirements plays an important role in preventing the emergence of a threat factor.
In this sense, in the current situation, we consider it appropriate to pay attention to the following:
First: to understand the specificity of the period, that it is based on ever-changing new ideas and emerging new approaches, to predict them and to develop forward-looking strategic scenarios.
Second: to recognize that each period establishes its own directions of development, and to take into account the existence of a struggle of different ideas in the process.
Third: without losing sight of the fact that the problems that arise in the current period are manifested in a combination of yesterday's traditions and today's uncertainties.
In the end, understanding the period is one of the most important needs to prevent the occurrence of a threat factor.
REFERENCES
1. Meadows, Donella H; Meadows, Dennis L; Randers, J0rgen; Behrens III, William W (1972). The Limits to Growth; A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York: Universe Books. ISBN 0876631650. Retrieved 26 November 2017. p. 63.
2. Emmanuel Wallerstein "The Modern World-System, vol. II: Mercantilism and the Consolidation of the European World-Economy", 1600-1750 (1980), 65-90p.
3. Karl Jaspers "The Meaning and Purpose of History", "Smisl i naznachenie istorii" "Vom Ursprung und Ziel der Geschichte", 1949)15-43p.
